This year’s qualifying offer will be set at $19.65MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. This will set a new record for the QO, which generally trends upward from year to year. The previous high was $18.9MM heading int0 the 2020-21 offseason, and the QO then dropped last winter down to $18.4MM.
The qualifying offer changes on an annual basis because it is an average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. Naturally, as salaries increase with inflation and increased revenue in the game, the qualifying offer also goes up. Last year’s decline was likely a reflection of the pandemic (i.e. canceled games and diminished attendance led to a decrease in expenditures from some clubs) bu it seems that the spending environment has broadly rebounded. A look at the QO totals since its creation….
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
It wasn’t clear whether or not the qualifying offer system would remain in place this winter, as the league offered to scrap the QO if the MLB Players Association agreed to replace the current international signing system with a draft for international players. This issue lingered even beyond the settlement of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement back in March, but when the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement on an int’l draft in July, that ensured the qualifying offer will continue through at least the length of the CBA (through the 2026 season).
The QO has always been an interesting subplot of the free agency, if not necessarily a popular one for players and agents who feel the qualifying offer can act as a limitation on a player’s market. The qualifying offer is a one-year, contract that any team can issue to any free agent who hasn’t already received a QO in the past. If the player accepts, he returns to his team on that $19.65 payday — if he rejects, the team will receive draft pick compensation if the player signs elsewhere, and the player’s new club will also have to give up at least one pick as a penalty for the signing.
Top free agents typically reject the qualifying offer, since they are likelier to land long-term contracts and their suitors usually aren’t bothered too much at the idea of paying an extra QO penalty to sign these stars. However, some players have accepted the QO, opting to take the one-year contract as something of a pillow contract if the player is coming off a bit of a down year production-wise, or perhaps an injury-shortened season. Teams also must make a strategic call about whether or not to issue a QO to some free agents, as clubs may not want to be on the hook for $19.65MM to a particular player (free agents who accept a QO cannot be traded until June), but clubs are also keen to add extra draft picks whenever possible.
Enough for beer money.
Not enough for gas
This article is incorrect: “It hit $18.9MM two years ago before dropping for the FIRST time last year, going down to $18.4MM.”
The article proves itself wrong with it’s own research: “2018-19: $17.9MM
2019-20: $17.8MM.”
Generally a great article for Darragh but the QO didn’t “hit $18.9MM two years ago before dropping for the FIRST time last year.” Before the 2020 season (likely due to the pandemic) the QO dropped by $100,000 from $17.9MM to $17.8MM. That was the first time the QO dropped. Not “two years ago… going down to $18.4MM.”
I’m not trying to be a stickler but I thought it was ironic the statement was made and the article itself proved it wrong. Great article otherwise. An alteration might be a good thing though.
Mr. Nebraska, I have not seen a post from you in quite some time. Is this real? It’s You??
Thanks to @Steve we are saved from the soul crushing effect of misinformation and the mountainous task of data interpretation that should only be commented publicly on by a seasoned actuarial. Looks like I can save in xanax today.
Steve, are you still in front of the hotel?
Yeah. I never left. Scott Boras double-parked and blocked me in. He’s refusing to let me leave unless I agree to give him 5% of my net income in perpetuity with a full no-parallel parking clause. I actually agreed but now he is demanding an opt-out after each parking space. We are still negotiating.
LoL. So true
Oh wow. U aren’t a stickler, yet U ARE A stickler. Bettcha no one really cares except U. The article was still very enlightening for MOST of us I’m sure. Sheeeesh
Great news! My social security went from $2100 to $2200! per month! I’m so happy for MLB!
Curly old sport, as long you aren’t paying $6 for a dozen eggs like me you’ll be alright!
If all I eat is eggs, I will eggsist…
?
He exists, therefore he is..
Wow, to have to explain that shows the quality of posters has plummeted.
Go Yanks
5 more years till it gets to an even 20 mil.
It’ll be sooner than that…
Yea, it will. Probably bout 2 years tops.
I think we’ll get there next offseason.
“We’ll” lol.
Meanwhile, ticket prices go up 12%
Blame it on the useless owners not the players who are all that matters when it comes to product
Yes. The players would never figure out how much we pay for tickets and charge us the same prices they know we’ll pay.
I wouldn’t even try to play for less than 20 mil/year. Not worth it. Got better things to do. After 20, I’ll throw my hat back in the ring….
Gotta put down one’s foot. Then what are we paying union dues for??
Haha! Exactly, man.
Good thing you have better things to do. Because let’s be honest.. the option for you to play for $20 is not an option.
So there’s that too. Lol
Apparently sarcasm escapes your astute observation skills….
Perhaps, but “let’s be honest” with a statement you believe to be factual, coupled with, “lol”, usually isn’t indicative of sarcasm. But, I do believe you mean it, for sure.
Apparently!
Using what kind of math ?
Or next year.
Wow! That’s a lot of simoleons!
and yet very few will offered it, and even fewer will be accept. So why have it?
Benefit for the team losing the free agent. Braves lost Freeman, but because they gave him a qualifying offer, they received the 76th pick in the draft and took Blake Burkhalter from Auburn.
Braves are a powerhouse, but think about smaller market teams, these extra picks as compensation for players they can’t afford anymore can be very beneficial.
I don’t know what your definition of ‘very few’ is but there could be upwards of 20 players getting a QO.
Position players: Arenado, Boegaerts, Nimmo, Contreras, Judge, Swanson, Turner, maybe Haniger, Rizzo, and Profar.
Pitchers: Bassitt (unless he just takes the mutual option, which is for $19 million), Diaz, deGrom, Rodon, Kershaw (provided he’s playing), Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, Taijuan Walker (probably). Some other maybes like Waino (if he plays) and Taillon. And who knows about guys like Clevinger, Eflin, maybe even Ross Stripling?
That’s seems like a lot to me, especially considering the size of the pool of players who are even eligible to receive one.
20 out of how many free agents?
How many more are worth anything close to 19M?
How many recent offseasons have there been 20+ players who were worthy of a top 125 salary?
“20 out of how many free agents?”
I have no idea but even if it’s 200 free agents, that’s still 10%. Hardly ‘very few’.
Here you go. A list of all the possible FA before accounting for those non-tendered. Obviously, none of the non-tenders will get a QO.
mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents…
Not sure if Bogaerts qualifies for the QO since he would be opting out of his current contract
He is eligible for it.
Players who opt out are 100% allowed to receive QO’s
Profar? A QO. He would jump on that. IF, and its a huge if, he opts out the Padres will let him walk.
Haniger had a 114 OPS+ and a 1.4 WAR. He is not going to get a QO either.
When healthy Haniger has been a really good player. Seattle has plenty of money. If a franchise stalwart accepted (and I think he would) it wouldn’t kill them and of healthy it’s a decent deal.
There’s a decent shot they offer.
A few guys have absolutely benefited from this: Colby Rasmus, Neil Walker, etc. guys who were never worth that much on the open market but worth re-signing and so they got big big security money and then watched their value dwindle the rest of their career which would’ve otherwise been their peak earning years.
The Cubs could offer Contreras a QA of $20 mil and see what happens, but my fear is that the Cardinals will go after him and he will go just for spite. I can see many intentional walks coming his way in Cubs/Cardinals games.
Lol the cardinals want no part of Contreras…
Hmmmm I’m a Cards fan and I don’t think that’s true at all. There is an obvious need. Contreras outperformed all of the Cardinals catchers collectively with like 60 less games played, by a wide margin. Other than going after an ace, catcher is the most likely upgrade. In house options look bleak at best, and the A’s catcher will cost good prospects. Mo isn’t too fond of giving up good prospects. Giving Contreras plenty of off days as DH, I would have no problem with them signing him.
I think they will consider Contreras and even possibly make a bid to sign him, however, I could also see them making a trade to land Sean Murphy. He actually fits their philosophy of strong defensive players. Also he’s cheaper, younger, and they have the pieces to trade for him. They could spend that 20 million on a front line pitcher.
Stevil Empire, yes I do like Sean Murphy. I said A’s catcher in my post because I couldn’t think of his name off the top of my head. Cost is relative. What cost are we really talking about? With Contreras it’s just money. With Murphy we’re talking about giving up legit prospects. The Murphy conversation probably starts with Winn. If I’m the A’s I’m hanging up the phone if Winn isn’t a starting point. Fresh off a banner year at the gates, just pay the Contreras money and keep the rest of our nice things. Imo
Can’t understand why people are always wanting to pay nearly any price for 1 of the small handfull of catchers who put up just average numbers, had they played any other position and have a decent glove for the position. my thoughts.. Get a catcher who can call a good game, play solid defense and not embarrass himself at the plate (Sandy leon not IOW) and spend prospects/cash towards improving said team in other areas where it’s easier and cheaper.
Have a decent catcher? Good! keep them as long as can, but don’t go out and overpay for 1 of the few good ones just because u want solid bats everywhere! it shocks me so many believe this.. No Fisk/Benches anymore and hasn’t been for years.
Because having plus offensive value at a notoriously weak position is extremely valuable. The catcher position as a whole for the Cards was a negative sum in terms of every measurable stat. The position as a whole wasn’t even replacement level. A black hole of offense if you will. It cost them runs and games. I dont want to give up Winn or Graceffo, possibly both, for Sean Murphey. You say cost in dollars. I say say cost in 2 of the best prospects they have in team control that will vastly outperform what they are making in dollars for the next 4 years, plus whatever you are paying Murphey. If you dont extend him, then this entire exercise just set the organization back dollars and prospects. You are wrong. I’m sorry, not sorry, just the facts.
I’m only speaking on behalf of speculation and fit for the Cardinals, and the willingness of the A’s to move Murphy.
Where we differ in opinion is the package that the A’s would get. Remember, the A’s have a young catcher named Shea Langeliers they want to play full time. With other teams knowing they want to play Langeliers plus other teams knowing that the A’s don’t want to spend arbitration dollars on Murphy, it will put Oakland in a corner at the negotiating table a bit. I think it would be St. Louis that hangs up on Oakland if they ask for Winn. He’s a top 100 level prospect and those guys don’t get moved for players like Murphy.
Would the Cardinals part with, let’s say, Yepez and a couple second tier prospects in their minors, sure. Remember, this is the same front office that landed Arenado and $50 million for Austin Gomber.
Yassssss Orioles Magic. Murphy’s value is what it is. It stands alone. With the team control the A’s have with him, it sits at like 80 mil. That’s 80 mil in prospects. The cards have good prospects. Have to hold onto the pitching ones at all costs. We have like 2 that could be aces. Already traded a perennial Cy young contender away. That cant happen again. Just sign Contreras, we have monies. Dont make this more difficult than it needs to be. Viva El Birdos put Murphey’s value even higher than I wanted to admit in an article a couple days ago. No. No thank you
Why not?
Mmmmm. Don’t b so sure. They duped us on Heyward. They may dupe us on Willie. He has at least 3 more good years. Offer him bout 3/66, it’ll be a great deal. He’s fiery, a leader, still fast, good hitter, good power & a decent catcher.
I have struggled with this decision but I think I am ready to announce that I will be accepting the qualifying offer. Thank you, I will try my best and execute on the field when it counts, I promise.
So who might get offered a QO?
Willson Contreras Cubs
Anthony Rizzo Yankees
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox
Dansby Swanson Braves
Trea Turner Dodgers
Nolan Arenado Cards
Brandon Nimmo Mets
Aaron Judge Yankees
Jacob deGrom Mets
Tyler Anderson Dodgers?
Martin Perez Rangers?
Edwin Diaz Mets?
I’d say all of the above –
Rizzo may be boarderline although it’s only an increase of 2.9 from what he’s making now.
Rizzo actually ended up having a good year. Guess the BA is never gonna return, but 32 homers ain’t bad at all.
Tajuin walker should get it too.
And bassitt
Wasn’t bassitt traded?
Before the season started.
Bassitt is odd because he has a mutual option that is almost as much as the QO ($19 million). He could try to hit the market with the QO attached to him, or just opt in or take the QO and hit the market next year unencumbered.
If he takes the option he would be eligible for the QO next season. Players can get tagged once in their career as long as they weren’t traded during the current season.
there is no reason for him not to take the QO over the option. The mets will be pretty desperate for pitching and continuity and will probably accept it and give him a slight pay raise. At worst even with draft pick compensation and his track record, i cant see him getting less than offer of 1 /15 with options / buyouts attached to get it to the 20 million if he chooses that route.I wonder if the current deal was more to hedge on the QO not going up significantly considering it is so close to the number.
I dont remember and correct me if i am wrong even if they mutually accept the QO the team can still negotiate contracts after as long as it is not less than the original QO.
Exactly. So opt out now, accept the QO for basically the same money, and get it out of the way.
Hit the open market next year.
BobGibsonFan – Agree with everyone on your list except Martin Perez. He will revert to his first half of the season ok, then suck the second half next year. His w/so and his WHIP have never been that good.
I think Ross Stripling is a lock to get it offered.
Great for the players, all for the players making as much money as possible
Maybe one day the fans will get a win
The owners don’t care about the fans! Owners should get less money players more money ! The owners are irrelevant and replaceable
Yes people with enough money to run these teams are around every corner.
Yup arte Moreno ( who’s absolutely a useless terrible owner) is about to sell the team for a record profit ! Again all owners are replaceable by any local rich person ! The owners a replaceable the players are not ! Nobody is paying to see me pitch to you ! They tried replacement players before it didn’t stick! The players are the whole league
Dang! John Schmoltz is such a “know-it-all” and the guy will not shut up. I mean, yeah I respect his knowledge, wisdom, and experience but he needs to turn down his dials from 11 to 7. Or I could just mute the TV.
Where did that come from?
Insanity.
Can they not get rid off the purchasing team losing a draft pick ? Everything else stays the same, but remove the penalty attached to the player. Don’t understand the reason for that part of the system.
It’s for the cheap teams that want to continue scaling back on their payrolls… they want to be incentivized to let higher paid players going by restocking their farm systems. Saves them money, which is their only goal.
They don’t want the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees going nuts and signing everyone.
Too late
That’s the whole point of the system. It’s supposed to be for “competitive balance.” Teams that can’t afford to keep their good players get rewarded with picks and teams that are able to afford the top free agents lose picks. The negative effect is that it hurts certain players on the market. It’s a flawed system and it will be gone in the near future most likely as a trade off for an international draft.
Mlb shiuld be able to trade draft picks, at the very least all but the first
I believe that is in the new agreement. Not sure though
nope
comp round picks are tradeable but not any others.
Ahh, gotcha. Yeah that stinks.
True Flyby, thanks for correcting me. I forgot about those.
cant blame you, there are what like 10 or 15 of them a year?
They should also shorten the season and expand playoffs if we’re on the topic of improvements.
The League cried the blues about revenue in 2020 and 2021 and spent a record breaking amount of money before the lockout to sign people like Javier Baez, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to over a collective billion dollars.
We’d all love to make as much as sports athletes who’s teams make hundreds of millions each season on TV deals to be able to afford these players salaries.
When Trea Turner leaves for greener pastures, at least LA will get a draft pick.
I think he’s staying in LA. I really don’t know who else would have the edge
He would be perfect for the Yankees.