Justin Verlander strongly considered joining the Blue Jays last winter, to the point that the Jays may have been the runner-up to the Astros in the race to sign the future Hall-of-Famer. Toronto’s interest is still active a year later, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the Jays “remain engaged with” Verlander in the right-hander’s latest trip to the open market.
After a Cy Young Award-winning season, Verlander’s price tag has naturally gone up. Verlander landed a two-year, $50MM deal from the Astros last offseason despite missing virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and even though 2022 was Verlander’s age-39 season. Still, Verlander was more than worth the investment, as he posted one of the finest years of his incredible career and helped lead Houston to a World Series championship.
With his 40th birthday approaching in February, Verlander is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth roughly $130MM, akin to the deal Max Scherzer received from the Mets when Scherzer was entering his age-37 campaign (Scherzer turned 38 last July). The Scherzer deal represents the highest annual average value for any contract in baseball history, so speculatively, it would seem likely that Verlander and his representatives would want to top that AAV even if by just a bit, in order to set a new benchmark.
It’s a steep asking price for any team to meet, even if Verlander is a unique case as an all-time great who is still pitching at an elite level this late into his career. Such a large AAV is a risk for a player who will be in action only once every five days, and if Verlander gets hurt or has any kind of performance dropoff, the contract could quickly start to look like an albatross.
Spending that much on Verlander would also set a new standard for the Blue Jays, whose payroll is already at a record high for the franchise. Adding a $43MM-ish salary to the ledger would also put the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history — Roster Resource projects Toronto’s current tax number at slightly over $201MM, so a big AAV for Verlander would send the Blue Jays well over the initial $233MM tax threshold.
As Davidi puts it, signing Verlander “may very well cut [the Jays] off from other significant moves.” That is no small matter for a team that several other needs to be addressed beyond the rotation, even if starting pitching is Toronto’s top need. The Jays could use some more outfield depth after trading Teoscar Hernandez, second base is a somewhat unsettled area, and the bullpen could use some more reinforcement even after the addition of Erik Swanson from the Mariners in the Hernandez swap. If ownership did allow the front office to spend up to the tax threshold, it can be argued that the extra money would be better served being spent on multiple players, rather than a single superstar in Verlander.
All this to be said, signing Verlander would still make some baseball sense for the obvious boost he’d bring to the pitching staff. Verlander, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman would become arguably the top rotation trio in the sport, Jose Berrios would be an overqualified fourth starter if he can regain his form after a mediocre 2022 season, and the Jays might feel better about Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White battling over one starting spot than entrusting two spots in the rotation to question marks. If payroll or roster needs are a concern, the Jays could look to cut some salary in other areas, plus Toronto could still trade from its catching depth to acquire more talent.
No way is he going to Canada
I don’t know….I heard he is a big Poutine fan..
He wants 3 years at the age of 40 for 130 million? Will that be a first and only time such a deal is offered at his age?
I definitely give the Jays a “Fighter’s Chance” to sign Verlander. lol.
Ya it’s such a terrible place
Lol, Toronto is a top 5 city in North America in every aspect minus the taxes, which is fair if thats a deciding factor
Taxes are pretty much the same as NY or CA
I was joking
Typical American thinking
Canadian
He does have 2 no-no’s here
Yeah and I “remain engaged” with Kate Upton.
Is that what you call your left and right hands? Right ones Kate left ones Upton?
JaysFan you perv!! But I like that!! I like that!!
-John Kreese (The Karate Kid)
He’s signing with the Mets 2 years, 86.8 million with mutual option for year 3
Verlander blossomed in Detroit…which is NORTH of Windsor, Ontario, Canada.
Fancy way of saying “he’s not coming to Toronto but we’ll say we tried”
Verlander reportedly close to signing 2 yr deal with the Mets for 86.8 million, with 3rd year option.
Former MLB’er Carlos Baerga is reporting via instagram.
Every five days
Yeah, I caught that too Fiend. Had to read it a couple of times to make sure I wasn’t missing something.
Same… be a pretty high salary per start!
Can’t see it being anyone other than the Astros or Dodgers.
It’s totally going to be the Mets. The team needs a high-priced ace to replace deGrom, and who better for that than Verlander? He’s more durable than deGrom and he’s better than Scherzer.
I question the logic of having 2 pitchers over 38 years old, with high contracts and questionable playoff performances on the same team. But it would be a fun experiment. I can see it.
He’s more durable than deGrom, for one thing.
Yeah, I gotta say the Mets.
Noooooooooo. Don’t do it.
The Jays have more money than Steve Cohen , it’s only a matter of willingness to spend. Not affordability.
That’s how it is for every team. Don’t let them fool you.
Ageeed
Rogers corporation (or real life version of Succession) really does have an insane amount of money. But the problem is the family isn’t in a good spot due to infighting and there’s a lot of pressure from Canadian government for Rogers to put Billions into the countries internet and telecommunications infrastructure or else they’ve been dangling that they might allow American companies to come in. So don’t know that they want to go Mets level spending right now/ever but man I want them to sign JV just not for 130 million unfortunately
The baseball teams budget is irrelevant to Rogers bottom line.
Doesn’t even get its own line on the profit loss lol part of miscellaneous.
Might agree but with that plus the 250 million Reno while also gutting their radio and tv in the last 2 years
Cohen is worth twice as much as the Rogers family.
Perhaps , I’d have to see the numbers , but it is Rogers Corp that owns the Jays. Not the Rogers family personally. Big difference.
FWIW JV just bought a home in Florida. Just sold his California digs. https://nypost.com/2022/11/02/inside-justin-verlander-and-kate-uptons-florida-home/
Actually would be a very Rays out of left field move.
A’sfaninUK, there is some impostor running around here with the handle A’sfaninWales..The audacity of some people..
They should get together and commiserate at the pub
Or the Quidditch Pitch
Thanks for the link.
However, I read this more as a move out of California to avoid taxes, crime, etc.
The problem is that Verlander hasn’t remained engaged on the prospect of playing for Toronto
The Mystery Team is Pittsburgh Shhhhhhhhhhh
Lol
A three year deal for a guy who will be 40 at the start of the season is nuts. More power to him if someone coughs it up but his ability can go south really quick at that age.
Mets did it with Scherzer who isn’t much younger. It’d be hilarious if they do it with Verlander too.
In 2005, Randy Johnson had a one year deal already in place at age 41 when the Yankees signed him to a two year contract extension, making his total deal something like 3 years and $48 million.
Imagine picking Toronto over Los Angeles. lmao never happening.
I also think JV wants to dip his toes in the NL too, I would put NL teams over AL ones in general on him.
It’s fair if people don’t like Toronto or Canada but Los Angeles is a dump.
Better weather than anywhere but carry on. Let right wingers in Florida tell you how things are in California. When I move back I am moving back to CA.
California has some beautiful spots, I don’t blame ya.
Let’s be honest. When you make that kind of dough you already have a home somewhere that’s in exclusive enclave.
Where you play and stay temporarily for the summer doesn’t matter.
I hope he stays away. His hay days are past.
He just won the Cy Young
Heavy rumors he’s heading to the Mets. However, I’ll believe it when I see it
Italk studios on YouTube is claiming Mets 2 years plus option.
Jaysfan1981;
Don’t know who those people are. But it certainly sounds plausible.
After all these years Schurzer and Verlander getting together again. And minus Miggy’s salary, they’ll be paid more than the entire Tigers team.
I can’t see it happening if he wants a third year.
Also to those suggesting he ‘wouldn’t come to Toronto’ your ignorance is showing, get out of the house once in a while.
I’d pay Verlander 43 million. Not for three years though. That seems destined to fail.
2 garunteed, 87.5 million team option for another 43.5 or incentives reached lock it in
Can’t garuntee that much for year 3 knowing we gotta pay the core
When teams can’t develop pitting they have to buy it.
The Astros revitalized Verlander. At the time they signed him he looked about washed up.
He can go to the large market Mets, Dodgers, Jays, or Yankees. If he needs adjustments in-season let’s see if their pitching people can help him. I think the Dodgers and Yankees can. Maybe the Mets. The Jays….?????
No. Not the Jays, not the team with the best pitching coach the last few years, not the place a few pitchers recently came to reclaim their value, one winning a Cy. No, Not that team.
Jaysfan1981;
Please. He’s hardly the best pitching coach.
The idea that Justin Verlander needs a pitching coach at this point of his career could only come from Samuel.
Im convinced that he is just a really good troll
I think this is JV’s order of most likely to sign with:
Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Jays, Astros, Giants and Rangers
2020Sucks 2;
Don’t think Dodges have the money this year.
Are you sure? I thought they had a lot of high priced players become FAs?
2020Sucks 2;
That’s what I’ve read in a few places.
Might be resetting the luxury tax. Might have too many large contracts out. Friedman might be pulling back on his own.
Going into free agency I thought for sure they’d have had Trea locked up the day after the WS ended.
It appears that something is going on there.
You haven’t read that anywhere
“Don’t think Dodges have the money this year.”
I’m not sure where you read this, but you’re wrong. After Arb increases and the Kershaw re-signing, their payroll commitments for 2023 are around $125-130 million according to baseball-reference. Mookie and Freddie Freeman are currently their only big contracts on the books.
rct;
That’s fine. But it’s not the issue.
baseball-reference doesn’t make budget decisions MLB franchises.
@Samuel: Are you not familiar with the Dodgers? ‘Budget decisions’? The luxury tax threshold is $233 million next year. Even if they were being strict about not going over it, they have $100 million to spend, even after Kershaw’s deal. They have a *ton* of money to spend.
If you have a source for where you ‘read’ that the Dodgers don’t ‘have the money’ this offseason, please share it.
Engaged, courting, interested in, have had conversations with. Are they exclusive yet, the Jays and Verlander?
I love the Jays that are going after JV. They’ll never land them though. JV should have a max two-year contract. The Blue Jays need an Ace and Manoah is not that, he folded in the playoffs.
jimmerteel;
Why would they need an ace?
Jaysfan1981 says they have the best pitching coach.
Heck, why do they even need Verlander.
Nobody in their right mind would want to move to Toronto after what Trudeau did to Canada. It would be akin to moving to Russia or Ukraine. Better chance of Toronto and Ontario seceding from Canada to the US.
People who make 40 million a year aren’t over fussed about the price of gas and lettuce
Bingo
Lol. Yeah dude I don’t think u realize how nice it is to walk most streets in this country and not have to be worried about a certain activity that seems to happen almost on a daily level in the states, and it isn’t good. We have laws here that help protect us.
Good job, comrade.
What a special Christmas present this would be for Jays fans. Come on Ross let’s pony up what we need to for the biggest impact signing and take advantage of the 3 year compete window we’re in. Vlad and Bo are free agents after that and who knows how that plays out. 3 years @ 120 million should get it done. What a role model for Manoah and takes a bit of pressure of him for the playoffs. There couldn’t be a better team in the league to take on the risk of his age/ potential regression considering Berrios would be a fourth starter in that rotation and would just move up to a respectable third if he got hurt. Make it happen Ed Rogers and I promise I’ll buy a Jays Verlander jersey and also switch my plan from Telus to Rogers! Lol
I too think it could happen. If it does, we just might sellout most of our games this year easily. Still more moves have to be done, but man would this be huge! I wonder if there is a shot that they go after Reynolds( have they done any moves with Pittsburgh since BC took over? He was with the Jays before he took this job.
They would need to give him the usual Toronto overpay which would get them near or over the luxury tax threshold for 2023 before any other moves. Doesn’t seem likely.
Usual Toronto overpay?
Explain
Toronto has to outbid teams by more than other competitive teams to get players to sign there.
That’s pretty subjective.
What contract sticks out as an overpay that would be an obvious indication of that?
Springer. I think more than anything it’s the players they don’t sign that shows it, though.
Springer got pretty much what most people were assuming he would, hardly an over pay.
I rarely see home town or preferential team discounts in FA anymore, I mean JRam took one but that wasn’t FA. I don’t think the jays are in any different position than most other teams, it’s who pulls out the most cash usually.
Verlander is signing with the Mets!!! 2/86.8 million with mutual option for year 3.
We’re aware of that report. Not knowing if it’s right or wrong at present, we’re going to wait for a trusted reporter with a strong track record.
Tim Dierkes;
Ah-HA – staying up late tonight.
You and your staff did a great job with the top 50 FA list to prepare for the offseason, and it appears all are on alert for the winter meetings.
Thank you and everyone there for the effort. Please continue to keep your integrity. MLBTR has established itself as the goto Internet site not just for for MLB news and transactions, but putting them into some perspective as well. Am sure the audience is growing, and I expect that will continue as more become aware of it. You all have something very special going!
I appreciate that!!
I didn’t know Verlander will be in action only once every five years…
Not hearing about Kershaw’s deal being finalized makes me think he may want to wait out the offseason and see if the Astros, Mets, or Yankees are more fun to play on before officially signing. If he has officially signed, please let me know. I’m not understanding the holdup. I’m 1% holding out hope that he may want to join DeGrom as baseball’s #1 and #2 pitchers, but I’m really happy with just the second best guy in baseball (DeGrom).
For a player over 40, you’ve got to figure about a 50% chance that this is the year his performance or health craters for good. That means Verlander is worth around half as much to a wise team as he would be if he were in his 20s with a clean medical history.
Would he be worth $86M a year to anyone if he were young? I don’t think so. I could see a case for maybe $60M on a one year young Verlander contract, so I might go up to $30M/yr now… but certainly not on a 3 year contract. If the numbers being tossed around have any relation to reality, there’s going to be serious buyer’s remorse for somebody.
That’s a fine target for the Jays. Him & Manoah getting 40% of your starts is awfully tough.
Don’t see Kate doing photo ops on Young Street in Toronto…..sorry Jay’s fans, just the truth……
Until Ben Verlander reports a deal, I don’t believe it.