Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.
Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.
That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.
It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.
Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.
The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.
From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.
Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.
There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM
I would be a little bummed if we got Taillon and refused to sign another backend SP like Miley or Davies as well.
Is Miley or Davies expected to be any better than Falter?
Yea. I think two #3-4 types would be ideal for the Phillies. And a marquee SS obviously.
I don’t think Miley or Davies are 3-4 types anymore. 5s at best based on recent history
Agreed. Putting Falter in as a 5th starter gives me bad feelings. He’s good as a spot starter or long relief, but no more.
Am guessing the plan is for Falter to hold down the role until the all star break / one of the 3 are ready to be called up…..
Even post Turner signing I agree with this. The rotation was exposed in a big way in the world series.
I intially thought Taillon might be the best value SP acquisition on the market, but I feel even he will he overpaid in this insane market.
i couldnt agree more!
These #’s are really moving up and Rodon wants 6yrs…?
Tailon’s price just went up for sure. I wonder at this point do the Phils pivot for the next tier with the quickness?
They need one solid #3 type. Whether they get that in FA or trade remains to be seen.
…Bassitt could be the pivot move I was thinking….
And 34 yr old Bassitt is asking for 4-5 years. Now that’s insane.
Taillon is not a “statement addition” lol. He is a league average #3/4 starter.
More like a 4/5
Because he stinks!
Taillon stinks a lot less than your last 2 posts.
I said he’s more of a statement addition than Kyle Gibson. Any starting pitcher — hell, any free agent — the Orioles sign for more than a year is a statement, to some extent. They haven’t signed someone for more than one year or given out more than $7MM in guaranteed money since 2018. So, yes, Taillon would be a statement addition for this team.
If the Orioles’ rotation additions end up being Gibson and Taillon, I would argue that that statement would be “we are not all that interested in contending anytime soon despite having a nice young core, a stacked farm system full of near-ready talent, and a bottom of the league payroll,” but I respect your position. It would be at least mildly encouraging to see a multi-year deal, even if it is not one that moves the needle in any significant way.
Did you see all the SP candidates? Might be wise for the Os to have one more year of evaluation of these guys. Grod, Hall, and Means could be the top 3 by end of the year… and then check out Kremer, wells, bradish, and Voth (in Os uniform) stats last year. It’s wrong to say the Os aren’t ready to compete even if they don’t go for a top tier SP. That being said, I think Rodon would be an amazing fit. If it’s not him or Bassit I’d prefer to sign none and roll the dice. Then aim high in 2024
Teams need way more than 5 starters to get through a full season because of injuries and ineffectiveness, there would still be plenty of opportunities for guys even if the Orioles added 2 good FA SPs.
Rodon’s first season without a dl stay was last year. He had several long DL stints with the White Sox. You want the O’s to give him six years? Way too much risk.
The Cubs top free agent rotation priority remains Kodai Senga. If Jed Hoyer can land the Japanese ace along with a mid-tier starter like Jameson Taillon it will be a job well done, at least addressing the rotation this offseason.
I’d love to see the Cubs sign Senga but leave the fifth spot as an open competition between Wesneski, Thompson, Sampson along with honest looks to Ben Brown, Kilian and Wicks this spring.
It’s just my opinion but Thompson looked like he has every bit of what it takes to be a good starter in the league.
I said before, I’ll say it again, if the Cubs want to make a statement, it’s Judge, Senga and dealing for Murphy. Then get some decent players to round out the roster.
Taillon would be a good fit on the Cubs alongside Steele, Stroman and Thompson, Hendriks is needing a good first half to keep his spot in CHC’s rotation.
It’s just my opinion but I think Taillon would, not be a waste of money, but an expense not worth it. The years and money against the potential of the Cubs prospects, to me, isn’t a worthy investment.
You can say it as many times as you like. Too bad the Ricketts’ own the Cubs good luck on that dream.
Yeah… I really hated that World Series title he brought the Cubs.
I prefer Wesneski. Something about that kid I really like. Thompson would be great in the pen as a high leverage 7th/8th inning guys
Thompson had a lot of confidence and swagger, he was lights out in the multiple inning relief role which I expect the Cubs to deploy him as again next year. I’m sure he will also get some spot starts as well.
I expect the Cubs to role with Hughes as either the set up man or closer next year with Heuer filling the other when he comes back. Also expect one veteran to work high leverage situations as well.
Wesneski looked great, his slider is sick, but I’m a little worried with him missing his spots and hanging his slider. If you re-watch his 3ks on 9 pitches, he hung quite a few but there was so much movement the hitters were helpless.
I
@drasco036
It’s safe to assume you can forget about Aaron Judge. The Cubs should prioritize one of the shortstops over an outfielder with their top 3 prospects all playing on the grass. They’re set in RF with Seiya Suzuki and have pretty much committed CF to top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong by 2024 or 2025. A short term FA like CF’s Cody Bellinger or Kevin Kiermaier makes sense for the Cubs.
Ian Happ as their core LF is still up for debate. If they can’t or don’t wish to extend him he’d be a great centerpiece trade chip for young Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno. If the Cubs prefer Sean Murphy from the A’s it will cost them a pretty penny in prospect capital.
As I stated before, Kodai Senga is their top rotation priority this offseason. If they could land him, they might have an additional leg up in the Shohei Ohtani free agent sweepstakes next offseason.
The Cubs should absolutely entertain the idea of Judge. Prospects are great but none of them are going to be the generational talent Judge is. I don’t care how many “good” prospects you have.
I’m putting zero faith in Davis, Cubs should have dealt him when his stock was high and now they should trade him while he still has name recognition. The outfield I’m excited about is Canario, Alcantara and PCA but none are a sure thing. It’s more likely all will be bust than any become anything close to Judge.
The Cubs have a need at center now, Judge could play then shift to left next season. Happ is a free agent at the end of the year, Suzuki will have three years left on his deal and doesn’t have a no trade clause. So how wouldn’t Judge make sense again with the nl having a DH?
The Cubs also have more than enough prospect depth to land Murphy without depleting or mortgaging the future. Do you honestly believe Davis, Hernandez and someone like Triantos doesn’t get the conversation started? It doesn’t have to be those three but it shows the depth/versatility in what the Cubs can offer. Murphy isn’t landing two highly regarded top 100 prospects, he is going to get one and a package of high upside guys near the top of the teams top 30.
My other favorite Chicago baseball team arguably has a greater need for Aaron Judge than the Cubbies. You won’t see me wasting 4 paragraphs on reasons the White Sox should sign him. I suggest you do likewise with the Cubs and instead concentrate on who among the remaining three shortstops make the most sense. My argument for the Cubs all offseason has been Carlos Correa with Nico Hoerner sliding over to 2B. We’ll see.
As for Murphy, I didn’t say the Cubs lacked the prospect capital to land him from the A’s. I just said it would cost them a “pretty penny”. They will also have a lot of competition from other organizations that have even better farms. The FA catching market is weak which will drive Murphy’s price sky high.
Judge makes sense for every team because, as stated, he is a generational talent. The White Sox flat out cannot afford him, or virtually anyone else close to his talent level.
Correa probably makes the most sense of the three given his defense and high floor on offense. Nico would be a perennial gold glover at second base however even with Correa, the offense is going to limp around without another two solid offensive additions.
It’s fairly certain the Cubs will add another veteran bat, perhaps switch-hitter Josh Bell at 1B to pair with lefty slugging prospect Matt Mervis who can also DH.
A short term CF fix like Cody Bellinger would also add a plus glove and maybe a solid bat with a change of scenery.
Versatile INF/OF Brandon Drury is another possibility for the Cubs to add some punch to their lineup.
A new catcher, be it Sean Murphy or one of the Blue Jays trio would also give the Cubs a plus bat and glove at arguably baseball’s most important position.
That’s kind of why I would lean more towards Judge… because if you sign be it Correa, you almost have to sign Bell if you want to contend and that going to be a 4 year minimum which means you are without a DH opening once Mervis comes up whenever that may be.
Then you absolutely have to sign Bellinger who’s a high ceiling high/bust factor and you have to outbid everyone and hope he’s enticed enough to play with cc.
If you sign judge you can sign segura for two years, jd Martinez for a year or two and you have the same offensive profile with a higher floor and shorter commitment occupying DH.
*Drury I have zero interest in. He’s been wisdom without the high power since he’s been in the league aside from a short stint (100 some games) with the Reds.
I’d rather go Judge, segura, Martinez maybe Turner at third? Then Correa, Bell, Bellinger, Drury… let Wisdom/Mervis figure out first. If I tie up DH for four years, I would love Contreras back… primary DH/back up catcher/first base
PCA will be knocking on the door to Wrigley after this upcoming season.
I would be happy with Senga and Syndergaard as adds to the staff.
Syndergaard would be a good risk to take… another year removed from TJ could get him closer to his upper rotation potential.
Thor is the guy I’d bet on to make 30 starts at a decent level. Would be a good signing.
You’d bet on him to make 30 starts?
Don’t hold your breath. Jed is still trying to get Seiya to talk to Senga for him
Gonna be a lot of overpays. Lesson learned from PHI winning pennant – if you can just get in postseason, you might go all the way. And now 12 teams get in. Have to do all you can to make a complete and competitive team
Why aren’t the Yankees seemingly working hard to bring him back if he is so valuable?
My guess is that they’re backing up the brinks truck for Judge while also being mindful of Steinbrenner’s country club membership budget money.
Because they cannot afford to bring him back and re-sign Judge.
Yankees are being held up by Judge, who will likely sign soonish, but their entire strategy depends on his decision.
The new left field dimensions and the opportunity to work with Adley Rutschman ensures that Taillon will sign with the O’s.
Pitchers never sign contracts based on who the Catcher will be. Money talks.
Literally Gibson just did. It could be a tie breaker at a minimum. I doubt the Os outbid anyone for him, though. Personally, I’d rather pay $20m more for Bassit
It’s never a tie breaker. Money first. Chance for World Series win second. Preference for a city third. Pitchers are egotistical and don’t give two craps who a team’s catcher is when they sign a FA contract.
Can show me a quote that said, “I signed in Baltimore because of Adley”? Even if he said something similar, it is just lip service.
Still waiting on the quote from Kyle Gibson where he says he signed with Baltimore because of Adley. Find it yet???
You would be the only person looking to pay “$20m more for Bassit,” that equals $30 Million per year for Bassitt !!!
Yes, and there’s also a lady from Scarsdale who’s very interested and is coming to see the place tonight.
Rangers should sign him to be their #3.
What do you all think about a straight up swap of Cedric Mullins for Jesús Luzardo? Fills Marlins needs for solid defensive CF and offense for southpaw Luzardo’s controllable bounce back year 123 ERA+. Question would be whether he could give you innings but he’s super young at 25 and isn’t a retread. Fits our window better and if the O’s need to manage his IP, the 2nd half with Means, DL and Rodriguez learning from the 1st 1/2 season, they are less in need of IP in the 2nd half than the start of the season.
MacGromit;
I think that the Orioles (and possibly all other MLB teams) don’t have anyone that can play CF as well as Mullians, nor anyone that can bat leadoff and manufacture runs like he does.
Meh, agreed with the D, but he should see more rest against LHP moving forward which may move him out of the lead off spot permanently. He was not hitting leadoff on days he faced lefties down the stretch.
Seems like there is a lot of $ being thrown at putchers with injury histories and/or who are long in the tooth. There may be some buyers remorse coming.
If I’m the Orioles, I go whole hog after Rodon. Camden Yards, as currently constituted, is made for lefty pitchers. He’s 30, so six for 180 is doable and he would be around when the Orioles crop of poisiton prospects hit their stride. Rodon, Wells, Kremer, Bradish, Gray Rod, and Hall is a nice rotation, with guys like Voth, Watkins, Bauman, and Zimmerman used in trades or fortifying the bullpen. There’s even talk of putting Hall and his 99 MPH fastball at the back end of the bullpen, complimenting Felix. I’d also love to see them sign Zach Britton, who had great success with the Orioles a few years ago. Britton is only 35, shold have a few years left.
Idk why Mets are so interested in this guy. I’d rather them resign Bassitt or Taijuan.
I believe that if a team wants to have a successful rotation, they MUST have a solid six. Right now, that includes Stroman, Steele, Wesneski, Hendricks, Sampson, and Thompson. So adding any mid-tier FA helps this team, with Highes, Alzolay, and Heuer already in the bullpen.
What I like about Tallion is he has more strikeouts than hits allowed, which is something this rotation largely lacks.
Yankees should get him back
after signing Turner earlier, I don’t think my Phillies are going to meet Taillon’s price-tag. hopefully we land anyone one of ROndon, taillon, bassitt, or walker.