On the heels of last night’s midnight megadeal, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:
1. With Correa signed, are Rodon and Swanson next?
The 13-year deal Carlos Correa agreed to with the Giants last night takes yet another star player off the free-agent market. Will it loosen up the market for the top remaining names? Dansby Swanson already saw his market begin to heat up yesterday, and though the Giants are now presumably out after landing Correa, he has plenty of other suitors. The Cubs are perhaps at the top of the pile, but the Twins might be aggressive on Swanson now that they missed out on Correa. The Dodgers, Red Sox, and incumbent Braves loom as additional possibilities. While Correa’s signing doubtlessly clears the field for Swanson, it may impact Carlos Rodon even more. Rodon’s market, much like Correa’s, included both the Twins and the Giants. The prevailing theory was that neither team would be willing to spend what it took to land both stars. With Correa set to suit up for San Francisco, that appears to leave the Twins, Cardinals, and Yankees as the three frontrunners for Rodon. New York is rumored to be Rodon’s preferred destination, but reports suggest a significant gap between the two sides, with Rodon known to be looking for a seven-year deal in the $200MM range.
2. Thor’s market heating up?
According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, the market for right-hander Noah Syndergaard began to heat up yesterday. Syndergaard had a solid if somewhat uninspiring season in 2022, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The righty posted a slightly above league average 3.94 ERA alongside a 3.83 FIP in 134 2/3 innings for the Angels and Phillies in 2022, but saw his fastball velocity decline dramatically; his heater averaged around 94 mph this year, down from nearly 98 mph on average in 2019. That contributed to a strikeout rate of just 16.8%, but Syndergaard paired it with a strong 5.5% walk rate and a fairly small 19.1% line drive rate. Ultimately, even if Syndergaard isn’t the same flamethrowing ace he was in his younger days, his still-above average fastball velocity and his pinpoint command make him a worthwhile investment for a team looking to fill out their rotation.
3. MLBTR chat today
Have the recent happenings on the hot stove raised questions for you? Are you wondering about what else you can expect your team to do before spring training starts in February? If so, you’ll want to tune at 5pm CT this evening for a live chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. If you have a question you’d like to drop in advance of the chat, you can use this link to submit a question. The same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today, if you’d like to check back in and participate live.
Correa ate the whole cake
The Giants lineup looks good with Correa and Haniger in there though,
still struggling with Yastrzemski and Lamont Wade Jr. in the OF – they should keep Brinson around and move Pederson to the outfield, have Yermin Mercedes DH full time and serve as the backup catcher to Joey Bart
Tomorrow is Thorsday, so my prediction is he signs a 2-3yr deal then,
Nicely done.
Thor will cost far less than Rodon and might be the better move. Not a fan of his but sometimes it takes longer to re-set after surgery. His deal will be far less both in AAV and years. Buying high on Rodon scares me more than stepping in front of the mirror after showering.
Dewey, I think Thor is the ideal target for the Jays to round out the rotation
would be just like the Jays to go all RH rotation. make it easy on teams just like their all RH lineup
Better to have a good pitcher than to have a lefty because they’re lefty.
The jays actually hit better against righties than lefties in 2022 (.762 ops against righties and .753 ops against lefties). It’s best to do a little research before commenting; only took me about 30 seconds.
@stymeedone Yup. Last I looked getting the platoon advantage was worth, in practice, only .025 points in OPS. I’d rather have the better pitcher.
“Buying high on Rodon scares me more than stepping in front of the mirror after showering.”
Allow me to be the judge of that!
Put pic of you up first…Trust me I’m right on both points.
Lets not scare the viewers away.
salaries are getting so much out of hand, in a few years or less, a player will get a $1 billion dollar contract which will drive ticket prices through the roof, while a family of four will no longer have the disposable income to spend at the stadium
The goal is to turn into football; where it’s corporate money and scalper/bots resale that dictates who gets into the games. Baseball is different. That model will not work.
So the MLB should cap players’ salaries and trust the owners to pass on savings to fans? No flaw in that plan!
How about instead cap ticket prices. I just don’t want owners complain about attendance is down or they need the tax payers to buy them a stadium. Owners should pay for the stadium not tax payers and don’t expect people are loyal to your team when you expect them to pay high prices.
ARC: I am absolutely certain of this fact: no matter what law or regulation fans would like to have passed in terms of capping salaries, capping payroll, capping salary length, capping age, etc, the one group that *won’t see any savings* on prices is the fans. There will always be an excuse or a reason why they need to increase prices.
How does capping ticket prices make sense? Why do owners complain about attendance? Because of ticket revenue! If you cap ticket prices, you cap ticket revenue. Why should owners pay for the stadium when there are cities willing to fund building them? The A’s can’t wait to get out of Oakland and move the Las Vegas where presumably they’re going to get lots of help funding building a new stadium. That sucks for Oakland (I actually like going to the occasional A’s game) but that’s the way it goes in professional for profit sports. Why fans believe they have rights over a team beyond being a customer/consumer is beyond me.
It would be impossible to buy tickets with a cap. Current season ticket holders and ticket scalpers would just buy them up cheap and sell them at the true market value.
So limit the income a person can make? By cappping prices? I’m sure you also want the government to oversee this? Socialism here you come. Freedom is what the US is based on bro.
You are right yankee clipper they always charge the fans while making lots of money.
haringbone you do not understand sarcasm. Owners always cry about low attendance instead of understanding supply and demand. Nobody wants to see their baseball team lose before first pitch. They want winners. Would you pay $20 a ticket to see a terrible movie? Of course not.
I like how some people yell socialism when any regulation is involved to fit a particular agenda.
I don’t think anyone wants the government overseeing the sport. They should be able to police themselves.
Vegas used their money on the raiders is the only reason the A;’s have not moved there. Fisher is cheap and wants a city to build him a stadium for free. Billionaires never pay their fair share is why they are rich.
the irony is owners want socialism by having the tax payers pay for a new stadium. A group of people piling money together to buy a stadium is a example of socialism. Freedom is making the owner pay 100% for the stadium because its his home.
Carlos Correa’s average annual salary is $1.72MM more than Alex Rodriguez received over two decades ago.
The AAV is artificially low due to the silly contract length. Numbers are easy to manipulate in these sort of debates. Correa is excellent. Question is whether he will be durable enough even in the early years of this deal. Hope so w/o any rooting interest.
These increased contracts are the new Bobby Bonilla deals.
Typical Giants whenever they go after a player they extend the years not the amount. Their style is if somebody out bids them they extend the years of the contract. So somebody must have offered a 12 year deal.
As an avid Astro fan, I can tell you his health was a continual thing. Strangely it was usually a lot of little things other than the back. Chronic back issues for a guy in his 20s is a red flag when considering a long-term contract. I credit Mr. Crane for not overcommitting.
A-Rod received 10 years. It isn’t that far off.
The Astros had Pena waiting in the wings. So from a baseball talent perspective they had the option of moving on from Correa.
With the history of failed contracts since ARods contract, it seems they didn’t learn much.
Even if the Astros didn’t have Jeremy Pena waiting in the wings, they would not have given out $350 million over a 13 year contract. Not happening with Mr. Crane. Thankfully
By all indications they gave the amount and extended the years to lessen the annual impact.
Do you have any cherry picked examples to show to the class? The only other deals I can think of under Farhan are shorter.
Easy La Stella. A couple teams offered him a 2 year deal but the Giants went 3 years to outbid the other teams. You don’t think they gave a extra year or 2 to out bid other teams/ Of course they did.
Ah yes LaStella. I wish that was a two year. I guess for small deals this may be the norm.
Queue the obligatory posters who will try to convince you that salaries have nothing to do with the price of tickets or concessions. In 3……2…….1…….
Teams are managed like any other business out there. Salaries may play a part but it’s not the full picture. Many businesses drive from a profit & loss statement. In these statements, it summarizes revenues, cost, & expenses during a time period. Pending where the business is making profit or losing profit is where critical decisions are made such as raising or lowering prices.
Solaris, when teams slash player payroll, do them cut ticket prices similarly? No. There’s certainly some correlation, but it’s weak. Tickets are a supply and demand item, like so many other products.
The total cost of these players are high however look at it this way….Carlos just signed a 350 mill contract, right? This stretches for 13yrs with an AAV around 27 mill per season.
At 27 mill, thats not bad because as years pass inflation will go up and these contracts will be considered a bargain.
A guy taking up a roster space for 6-7 years and being worth a fraction of 27.5 million will not be considered a bargain. Is Miggy looked at as a bargain? Was Pujols a bargain? Is Stanton a bargain? Is Votto a bargain?
So, you just gave examples of several players that received similar huge contracts though. How is his that different from how contemporary MLB has operated? And there are plenty more spanning the last twenty years.
Why? Because MLB is rolling in money.
Valid Point! & this is something that teams will be stuck with in the future. Right now, the new trend is these long years & teams will learn they cant push talent through their system because of this blockage. Can’t wait to see what free agency look like in 5 years as it will be slim pickings for teams.
MLB as a whole may be rolling, but not every individual teams is. Miggy is killing Detroit’s lineup. Votto has hamstrung CINCI’s budget. Not every team has the largest market and revenues, and can afford Stantons albatross contract. That it hasn’t changed just show the lack of a learning curve over time.
Stanton is making like $5MM over the QO…… every single team in MLB can afford his co tract without even breaking a sweat.
And, until they are truthful about what they can afford, there’s no conceivable way to prove this. We do know they receive over $200MM each and every year, not including their own team income. That we do know. Everything else is just guesswork and they want it that way.
@JockStrap: “Inflation will go up…” Really? Who would ever guess? Thanks, Captain Obvious!
Anytime! Captain Blue Ballz
I buy a yearly $500 credit plan with the Rays & parking can come out of it (for 50+% less). I also can tie a debit or credit card to my Rays account & get 25% off inside the stadium.
@fljay73: So you’re the guy who actually attends their games!
Baron: In his defense he never said he attended the games. He only said he pays for the ticket plan and parking passes.
Family of 4 can’t afford it now, unless it’s nosebleeds.
I can’t get my family of 4 to stay interested in dinner let alone a three-hour-plus Twins game with spin-a-rama relief.
I think Thor will see some velocity come back this year being another year removed from TJ. I could see the Dodgers taking a chance on him. They have are good at getting the most out of pitchers.
I think a team should utilize Thor in a closer role. The velocity would come back immediately and less risk health wise.
If Thor can’t hit 99 over 90 pitches, he’s unlikely to hit 99 over 25 pitches.
As a Cub fan, I’d like to DFA Jed Hoyer.
Syndergaard should go to Baltimore where Matt Harvey died out
Oriole FO is savvy, borderline calculated. IMO, Harvey is an inexpensive investment. When a guy like Bauer (sp?) or the like becomes available, the baseball world will already know that the Orioles are willing to give a player a second chance after said player comes out on the other side of a societal morality/legal issue.
Harvey was a placeholder brought in for a tanking year because the farm was so barren after DD left that we didn’t even have any C prospects that could reasonably be expected to throw 150 mediocre innings.
Good morning KFloch. Hope all is well. Agree with you on the 21 season signing but not the 22 season signing.
He was depth and never even pitched at the MLB level in 2022, so I’m not too worried about it.
in the year 2035, Carlos Correa will be the highest paid bench coach in MLB
Wouldn’t mind Thor going back to the Angels
The NL West drama deepens. Dodgers, Padres, Giants dueling it out.
I’d like Rodon to end up Minnesota.
DBacks on the come-up, too. They won’t be top of the Division, but NL West is going to be a dog fight.
Dbacks are still a couple years away from being a real threat in the west. They don’t have the pitching yet and there’s a lot of big bats in their division.
If those pitching prospects start coming through though they could be a problem.
I don’t think that they’ll be beating down doors this season, but I disagree with a couple years away. As is they have an 83-84 win projection.
Jameson/Nelson both showcased a strong foundation in their debuts, and not against bad teams either. Pfaadt was drafted two years ago out of a D2 school and is now a top 25 prospect that has pitched with more success than countless others have in Reno.
All three have at least a median projection of a #3 SP (even if they don’t reach it this season) and all three are either already in or right on the cusp of being in MLB.
This season doesn’t need to be a contention season (although it would be nice if more things broke right than not), they just need to get: Carroll, Thomas, Jameson, Nelson, and Pfaadt settled in at the MLB level and see who among the AAA relief arms shows the most promise so they can clearly address holes next offseason (or the trade deadline if Hazen is a gambling man).
I think I mostly agree with you, I just think it will take a little longer for all of that to translate to MLB success.
Nelson and Jameson each only threw around 20 MLB innings last year. Pfaadt hasn’t even had his MLB debut yet. There are other quality arms like Cecconi and Walston that we might see in 2023 too. Overall I’m envious of the Dbacks pitching depth in the high minors, it’s just hard to envision those guys making up most of a playoff rotation in 2024 based on their limited experience so far, but it could happen if they hit the ground running.
The other big thing with the Dbacks is their pen was awful last year, but that can probably be quickly upgraded if need be. Will be interesting to see when they put resources into that because if they’re aggressive with it next offseason that could help get them there for 2024.
I can understand having a conservative projection going forward; I’m just mostly infatuated with the upside, because the betting line is +4000 to win the NL Pennant and +8000 to win the WS.
83-84 win median projection, ~10% chance to make the playoffs, with 3 pitchers that have #3 upside (or higher, and will be working with Brent Strom directly), a CY contender (not just a nominal ace), the current NL RotY frontrunner, one of the strongest team defenses in MLB, and a plethora of tradeable assets; that doesn’t sound like a “smart” bet, but it’s also not a complete impossibility.
If I throw $100 on each line, worst case,and most likely, scenario, is I’m out $200 (which I’ve lost at the casino and slept fine). If they “only” make it to the WS, it’s +$3800, and if they win the WS it’s +$11,800.
If not everything breaks favorably and they don’t make the playoffs? Oh well, they’re rookies learning on the fly in a Division against some of the sports goliaths.
There is still no response from the Orioles Quick Response Team
I think Ziggy could not get his car started this morning and Elias had to take the Bus to work
Syndergaard would make a fantastic #5 in the Jays rotation on a higher AAV 1 year deal.
Let him pitch lights out for a year and get the bag next year.
Or settle fir a Manea contract with team options added
Thor is one of the guys I want for the RS. I was hoping for three years, but 4 is pretty doable. I think his floor is the 103 OPS+ he put up last year. Probably 5.5-6.0 IPs/GS. Probably 3 WAR/170 IPs. That would be a pretty solid #3.
I think #3 is being way too optimistic. This guy’s floor is #6 starter/bullpen piece. His ceiling is #4.
JoeBrady;
With the way he pitched last year I think one year with a team option for a 2nd is about it.
He’s no longer a power pitcher, and it’s questionable that he has the pinpoint control, the selection of pitches, and the smarts to be a pitch-to-contact guy.
Furthermore, last year he got $21m and I doubt he’s worth half of that until he proves different. He spent most of his years living on teams hopes that he would pitch consistently as he did during his good stretches. Now he’s living off a reputation that he never really had.
At this point Noah is more Loki than Thor, getting by on trickery rather than power. Time to move on.
Well, it doesn’t matter how hard he throws but location and movement on that fastball. A lot of folks don’t realize that.
At this moment, every above-average let alone star baseball talent, presently retired or dead, are extremely upset over being born too soon.
Correa. Big guy. Low back issues. Broken ribs from a massage. 13 years? Good luck with that contract. Generational wealth. Good job Carlos.
Thor seems more like a #5-6 starter or bullpen piece.
I would love to see Thor return to Anaheim next season. I was hoping he would as soon as they traded him to Philly. Let’s do it, Perry!
I suppose what bothers me about these huge contracts is that real people will never touch money like this. The market is what it is. What I can’t figure is the long term deals when we know after about 33 (give or take) most players have already started to decline. So these teams are betting that their farms will not be able to generate a premium player even 5 years from now. But we see these new players come up through systems every year regardless, making these lengthy contracts look pretty foolish, based on declines and the young kids showing up and out-playing them. In the short term they seem wise to pack a roster, but in the medium and long term, it handcuffs their future. Fascinating how win-now mentality interferes with logic. Gotta love baseball!
You’re 100% correct. And for most people it stems from one of two areas: jealousy because of what they make (which is in fact absurd), or jealousy because their team didn’t acquire the player.
But I wonder, do people sit at home and watch a 55-year-old Tom Cruise and shout, “you’re not worth $100MM for a two-hour movie (Top Gun)! Your salary should be capped. This is ridiculous.
I’m guessing not. Why though? That’s even more absurd. It was one movie and he received $100MM!!
Agreed on all fronts Clip…Although, I don’t “yell” that stuff at the TV per-se….I kinda rock back forth on my couch slowly and softly whisper such things to myself!
In 6 years if Correa is just a 2.5 WAR player, at $27M he’ll still likely line up with his cost given the rise of baseball salaries. As for the length? Would it have been better to go 9 years for $350M? Instead the Giants tacked on 4 more years to get the AAV down. Obviously they don’t expect Correa to play out the contract in years 10-13. So before Correa retires he signs a 15 year extension for $108(what he’s still owed) for 15 years paid in the form of a structured 4 year signing bonus (so Correa gets his money all the same). That gets his dead money hit to the luxury tax cap to about $7M which will likely be quite manageable in the 2030s.
I’d be interested to see how many of the 8+ year deals, the player plays for the team that he signed with.
Seems to me, most (over 50%??), the player is traded, the Original team takes portion of the remaining contract, but gets infusion of talent in trading older, cost controlled player.
Waiving no trade clauses to get traded to contenting teams (Scherzer) or just bring dropped (Albert) or being moved to get talent back when the winning window closes (Betts). Seems to me, long term deals have a wide range of outcomes for player and signing team
Do away with players agents. Salaries will drop 10 to 20%.they don’t need agents
yes players do need agents how many mlb players have a law degree and can understand the legal aspects of a contract. it’s not like the contract is written up as team x is going to pay player y for a said amount over so many years now every one sign. there are a lot more that go into these contracts and agents are there to keep them fair, because teams writing these contracts have there own agents writing them and trying to add any loop hole they can find to get out of them
So long, Dansby. It was great while it lasted.
@bham: Hope his wife doesn’t say that to him on their honeymoon.
I’m leery of women who insist on showing that much skin in their wedding dress. Just saying.
I would love it if the Angels swooped in and sign Swanson to a mega contract.
Could you imagine a batting order of Walsh,Trout,Ward,Rendon, Ohtani, Renfro, and Rengifo, Urshela, and fill in name?
2 left-handed hitters, mixed in with a switch-hitter with Rengifo.
I feel strongly Rengifo hits .275-.280 with 25 home rooms and 25 steals.
Rengifo might even make the All-Star team.
I love money so much
Another industry that has made unions useless.
Thors “pinpoint command” occasionally turned into batting practice. I think he’s be best served to see how he does this upcoming year and if his velocity returns before reinventing himself as a reliever. His motion and arm slot last year looked as if he was favoring/holding back on his delivery, this the improvement in accuracy but decline in velocity.
Still wont make playoffs