After exceeding the luxury tax limit in each of the last two seasons, the Padres aren’t slowing down their spending. Signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM deal was the splashiest move of a busy offseason, but San Diego also made significant investments to re-sign Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, as well as bring in other new talents in Seth Lugo and Matt Carpenter. The Padres also checked in on any number of other players, including Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Christian Vazquez, Jose Abreu, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, and Nathan Eovaldi.
The result is a projected $249.4MM payroll for 2023 is the highest in club history, as well as estimated tax number of roughly $266.6MM. However, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, “people familiar with the team’s thinking say the Padres are up against a self-prescribed spending limit.” This limit isn’t necessarily absolute, since as Lin notes, the internal spending limit is ultimately up to owner Peter Seidler, who might decide to again green-light a big expenditure if it means getting the Padres a step closer to a World Series title.
Still, it would seem like payroll space might be at something of a premium, given San Diego’s most recent moves. Adam Engel was signed to a one-year guaranteed deal, and while terms aren’t yet known, it’s safe to assume Engel isn’t getting more than the $2.3MM he was projected to earn in arbitration. Brent Honeywell was signed to a split contract, while Wilmer Font and Eric Hanhold were inked to minor league deals. Naturally, all teams (no matter the payroll) look for lower-cost depth as the offseason goes on, but the Padres still have some notable needs that would require a bigger fix.
President of baseball operations AJ Preller is no stranger to creative trades, so the Padres could look to address those needs while freeing up some salary at the same time. For instance, the Padres have at least some openness to moving infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has a $7MM luxury tax number (based on average annual value) and who is owed $25MM over next two seasons. Trent Grisham has also been floated as a possible trade candidate, though Grisham is among the less-expensive members of San Diego’s roster. Dating back to last season, there has long been speculation that Blake Snell (owed $16MM in 2023) could be dealt, even if such a move wouldn’t help fix the depth issues in the Padres’ rotation.
Between trades and promotions, the Padres’ farm system has lost a lot of its depth; Baseball America rated the Padres only 23rd of 30 teams in its midseason organizational talent rankings. As such, this could complicate the concept of San Diego attaching a prospect or two to an undesirable contract in trade talks. For instance, Drew Pomeranz missed all of 2022 recovering from flexor tendon surgery, and the reliever is owed $10MM in 2023. A rebuilding team could be enticed to take Pomeranz’s deal off the Padres’ books if some minor league talent was added as a sweetener, except San Diego might not have the prospects to spare.
Zero
What are the padres chances of a World Series title?
About 3.50
Trade Kim for houck and you have a better chance
I just hope and pray that Tatis doesn’t have a reoccurrence of his ringworm
Bamtech money is a real thing. Rumblings of an even bigger payout as expansion teams become more plausible with the As and Rays stadium issues headed for conclusion are also a possibility.
Meanwhile you’ve got an owner that after extended tanking and prospect gathering is all in on the current core knowing Machado will opt out barring a catastrophic injury giving some additional salary relief going forwards.
If the question is, could the Padres try to swoop in with a pillow correa offer, leaving him one of the only big ticket items next offseason for clubs with money to spend? Absolutely. Where would they play him? Different question.
The Padres have an owner-fan who is committed to winning now. He’s spent big money, with attendance, ratings, advertising and revenue are all up. Even more than Cohen, Seidler has shown a committed owner can change the perception and fortune of a franchise. When MLB interviews potential new owners to let into their little club and spectacularly profitable club, the first question should be are you a fan and prove it. The teams that spend aren’t the problem; it’s the teams that don’t.
Where would they play him?
========================
It’s the law of diminishing returns. Signing Correa to play SS, so that Bogaerts can play 2nd, so Kim goes to the bench, isn’t that much of an upgrade. And is probably counterproductive if it means not getting a 1B, and DH, or some rotation depth.
Cronenworth is the 1B and Carpenter is the DH.
Ideally they’d float the idea of moving Soto to 1B/DH and look to add a young controllable OF to improve the OF defense along with Grisham and Tatis Jr or just move cronenworth to OF if he has better speed and range than Soto.
As young and as close to free agency as Soto is to free agency he may not be open to switching positions and probably doesn’t want to be a full time DH. Odds are the Padres still have enough coins left in the piggy bank to add a Mancini, Gurriel, or Belt if they wish to. You can never have too much depth and Cronenworth and Kim’s ability to move around the diamond can only help over the course of a long season
What is this story about?
The reason the Pads spent like gang busters, hit a home run on Xander and then bunted the rest of the offseason. No 4th or 5th starter. No LF and no bench depth. Love Carpenter but the rotation is a huge question mark. Pen is good but doesn’t match up with the Phillies. Top 3 starters match up with anyone but 4 and 5 put the Pads at a wildcard level. No FA pickups starter wise. Why is it pulling teeth to sign Cueto? Honeywell is a shot in the dark. Engel too. Team shouldn’t be banking on trades. Offering or saying you’re offering up Kim and Grisham smarts as desperation as if there is no more money to spend so you need to make a trade. Meh.
You’re making a lot of assumptions @towinagain.
You don’t know how much more Peter Seidler will spend.
You don’t know what A.J. Preller has planned.
Neither does Lin for that matter. He or his sources have always been pessimistic.
But we do know Seidler has defied expectations in regard to spending. And we know Preller is willing to pull off trades right before the regular season starts. See: Kimbrel/Upton and — last year — Taylor Rogers for Paddack/Pagan.
I do think the minor moves we’ve seen are a sign of a slow-down. But, I’m not convinced that the team is going to leave the holes you see now unaddressed.
Preller has a plan?
#4 Martinez
#5 Lugo
#6 Morejon
#7 Groome
#8 Honeywell
3 other guys that made starts in 2022 in the minors.
Padres could use a back of the rotation starter, but if they have to wait until the trade deadline, that is still one heck of a strong rotation. That is top 5 in MLB.
Hader, Pomeranz, Suarez, Garcia, Crismatt, Hill, Castillo, Lopez, and one of the starters that ends up in the pen as an opener or piggyback starter. Then there is Baez, Poppen, Honeywell, Kerr, Avila, Cosgrove, and others on the 40 man as depth in the minors.
That is solid. Even if Pomeranz is a shadow of his former self, the Padres have depth in the pen.
Where they still have a need is a backup outfielder beyond Azocar and backup infielders beyond Rosario and Batten
The Padres said they were not looking to trade Kim or Grisham. Multiple times. Even the article all these unbased rumors is based on said they were not shopping them. One unnamed industry source said they were and suddenly they are shopping them.
They don’t need to move either and it makes no sense to move Grisham at all because that is an area where they have no depth.
I don’t know that relying on a 4th starter that pitched 106 innings and a 5th starter that pitched 80 is going to work. I think they will both be out of gas well before the end of the season.
All the aforementioned have talent but aren’t stretched out and have injury concerns. The pen is good to great but without innings eaters like Manea and Clevinger were during the regular season, you run the risk of overusing the pen and a repeat of 2021. Granted the season hasn’t started and there is still time but everyday another FA comes off the board necessitating a trade. Still, love ownership and I love Prellers aggressiveness.
Exactly! That’s what the formula was in 2021 and it backfired big time.
Ive watched Groome in Boston minors. If he’s your 7th best, you guys are in bad shape.
4.0 BB/9 in the minors. Now put him in the majors where batters are much more selective. Add to that 70 starts in 7 years (not very healthy).
Maybe he figures it out. Other aspects of his game are tantalizing. Good luck.
Martinez has injury concerns? Lugo has injury concerns? Do you not understand what opener and piggyback starts means? Many people don’t.
Preller has said that they will go with a 6-man rotation to start the season again. That limits innings for the #5 and #6 starters. They also are fond of using and opener and piggyback. That will allow guys like Morejon and Lugo to pitch back-to-back in the same game. That allows them to stretch out and saves the pen.
Speaking of the pen, the guys now scheduled to be part of that pen had the 5th best ERA in MLB last season. That does not include Rule 5 pickup Lopez who spent most of last season in AA or Pomeranz and does include Poppen who pitched to a 4.40 ERA for the Diamondbacks last season and Hader’s 5.22 ERA, not his career averages. That is a rock-solid pen.
If the Padres get Hader at his career averages and Pomeranz bounces back with even a mid 3’s ERA, that is one of the best pens in MLB.
Manaea went 5 1/3 innings per start. and had a 5.06 ERA as a starter. The Padres will not miss him.
Clevinger didn’t pitch that deep in games going almost exactly 5 IP per start. His 4.25 ERA was 20 points above league average and his 4.97 FIP was 93 points above league average and indicates regression to come.
Martinez went deeper in the games he did start than Clevinger did and he had a similar 4.30 ERA as a starter.
So we should care about Hader and Pomeranz’s career norms but only the previous season for guys who aren’t on the team anymore like Clev and Manaea. Lol. Got it
I’m talkimg starters capable of throwing a 100 pitches. Clevinger and Manea preserved the pen. The pen was rested because the gave us extra innings and flexibility during the season to get to the playoffs. Look I love the Bogarts acquisition but if it meant not having room to acquire another starter or two than it cancels out the positives.
@web, if Lugo is in your rotation (or any), you’re not top 15.
Manaea career numbers were in line with last year, he has like a 4.5 career era
68 starts in 5 seasons. He missed 2018 to TJ. There was no minor league ball in 2020.
How many QS did those 2 starters have? With a 5 ERA I can’t imagine Manaea had many. How about Clevinger?
I love the XB acquisition, but if it means moving your best SS (Kim) to another position, it cancels out a lot of the positives.
Grisham can only get better this year.
“Preller has said that they will go with a 6-man rotation to start the season again.”
If that’s Preller’s plan, then SD is going to struggle again. According to your previous post, your rotation is:
#4 Martinez
#5 Lugo
#6 Morejon
So if they go with a 6-man rotation, then half their starts are going to go to three guys that combined for 10 GS in 2022.
websoulsurfer:
“Do you not understand” math? When you say “6-man rotation” then proceed to “piggyback” the 5th starter and the 6th starters (Morejon and Lugo) in the same game, you now need a 7th starter. All I said is if you’re counting on Groome, thats a bad sign.
Also, if your ‘injury’ comment in your first sentence, is in response to my Groome comment. Please explain. Groome has averaged 10 starts a year for 7 years. I hope you aren’t counting on 3 of your starters being this unreliable. 6-man rotations, etc. only help so much.
Baseball life:
So missing an entire season due to an injury, doesn’t count as an “injury”. Okay.
Good point for the Covid season, I didn’t think of that.
Dodgers #4 and #5 for 2023
Syndergaard 134 IP
May 30 IP
Padres are planning to have 6 or 7 guys that are part of the regular rotation including Morejon and possibly Honeywell to start the season.
Last season we saw games where they piggybacked starters like Clevinger and Martinez and its likely they do that again in 2023.
In a 6 man rotation, the 6th man is often skipped in the rotation and no one pitches more than once a week. They are not looking for 200 IP from anyone.
Websoulsurfer named 8 starters. 3 of those 8 have minor league options so shuttling them up and down for piggyback starts is not a problem.
Martinez threw 149-161 innings in Japan. He can easily stretch out to the 160 innings the Padres need out of a #4 starter.
Lugo threw 65 innings last season so stretching him out to the 100-120 innings they will be looking for out of the 5th spot in the rotation is a no brainer as long as he can go twice through the lineup
The Angels and Astros both went with a 6 man rotation for much of last season and the 6th starter position in the rotation had 12-15 starts and 60-80 IP. I am confident that Morejon can be extended from 47.1 IP in 2022 to 60-80 IP in 2023. Don’t you?
Beyond those guys, the Padres have at least 4 more on the 40 man that made starts last season in the majors plus another 3 that started in the minors. They also have 3 others on the active roster that went 2+ innings in multiple outings in 2022, so finding a piggyback starter is not an issue in the least. That doesn’t include the minor league deal signings like Teheran, Font, and Brooks.
Finding an effective one is an entirely different conversation, but I am quite certain that the guys on their staff are as good as the few FA that are available with the exception of Cueto who is asking for multiple years and much, much more than $720k AAV.
The Padres could very well still make trades and signings, but from what Preller has said they are looking mainly for OF depth. I think he believes their pitching staff is set except for a back of the rotation guy like another Honeywell or a similar inexpensive, high risk, high upside pitcher.
I wouldn’t count him out of some major deal that adds a frontline starter in trade, but don’t think he is going to add a starter just to eat innings. He saw how that worked out with Manaea last season. It would have to be a definite improvement.
Thank you for attending my Ted Talk.
You don’t actually pay attention to the game do you?
In the 6-man rotation the Padres employed last season, the # 6 starter started a game about once every 2 weeks because of off days in the schedule. There were multiple times during the season when the #5 and #6 starters, Martinez, Gore, and Clevinger, were piggybacked to give the #6 work in a game situation on his normal schedule and limit the innings of the #5.
For the 4 teams that employed a 6 man rotation as least part of last season, the 6th starter averaged 73 IP. You get the picture? It’s a position designed to stretch out young pitchers or guys returning from injury.
Groome has not had an opportunity to play 7 seasons, No minor leaguer played in 2020. That cuts down the possible season to 6. Then he played short season ball in 2016 was when he was 17 and coming off a full high school season. That cuts down to 5 possible full seasons
Then he got injured and had TJ surgery at 19, pretty common these days, and missed all of 2018 and part of 2019. Because he had been out more than a year, they sent him back to short season ball to build him up slowly when he returned in 2019.
Then there was no minor league baseball in 2020.
In 2021 he had 21 starts between A+ and AA ball. Only one starter at those levels had more starts.
Last season he made 27 starts and 28 total appearances. The most starts in AA or AAA was 28 and only 3 pitchers did that. Groome put up a very respectable 3.75 ERA last season in AAA including a 3.16 ERA in the PCL, an extreme hitter’s league, and playing in El Paso which has an extreme hitter’s park. How extreme? The team averaged a 5.56 ERA and the league averaged a 5.40 ERA. A 3.16 ERA is nothing short of spectacular.
So please learn a little about the game before coming back at me,
Wavy:
“that is still one heck of a strong rotation. That is top 5 in MLB.”
Lets revisit this in April, don’t have to wait any further because the holes will make the rotation look like swiss cheese. Youre counting on a heck of a lot of luck.
The rotation outside of top 3 is a disaster. Not one starter capable of throwing 100 pitches. It’s just thrown together and the results…see 2021. Come this far and bail out. Hope, hope ,hope that’s what happened in 2021!
They aren’t stretched out! Not one is capable of 100 pitches and injuries, there’s a plethora of them. Outside of Darvish, Snell and Musgrove, nothing. Now wait for a bogus trade sending Kim or Cronenworth in a desperation trade when you could have just signed Cueto. Not looking forward to this season.
Why do you comment as Pads Fans, websoulsurfer and BaseballisLife all on the same thread?
Bauer will be a Padre!
No, no he wont
@Finatic Not even a chance.
Tatis is going to the Outfield so regardless of composition (and barring a trade) the Padres OF on most games will be Tatis/Grisham/Soto with Engle as the 4th Outfielder.
Martinez/Lugo/Morejohn/Weathers/Honeywell/Groome/Knehr/Font/Teheran/Brooks/Espinoza (if he’s still viewed as a starter) is a lot of depth to start with and doesn’t count the possibility of a Cueto or Wacha or someone else falling into Preller’s lap
I thought the rumor was that they were going to put Tatis in the outfield now with Boggy at ss
Okay, I’ll finally answer mlbtr’s question – or the title to this article. I’ve run the calculations and here’s the answer:
$11,345,320 and 93 cents
The normalization of writers citing “people familiar with [X’s] thinking” is easily modern journalism’s worst stylistic choice. Like bro, just admit you’re making stuff up
That’s absolutely false.
I know a guy, that knows a guy, that has coffee in the same deli as an inside source, and he says it is all true.
It’s like saying “I heard from a friend of a friend of a friend” or “I heard from the Rangers’ coach’s son they were in agreement with Trevor Story” oh wait….
As a Dodger fan, I hope a heck of a lot more!
If you look at the difference in spending between the Yankees $291MM & the Padres $249MM, and then the difference between the Yankees $485MM annual revenue/$10B worth versus the Padres $284MM annual revenue/$1.57B worth, the Yankees should be embarrassed by failing to fill LF/3B because they don’t want to spend any more. This is especially true it means finally beating the Astros and going to the WS. Their faux cap is inexcusable if bypassing it means addressing weaknesses for a championship roster.
chop chop!
Y-Clipper, you went bottom-line on that and that is exactly what Yankee fans are feeling. Thank you for expressing it. But spending money on bringing in 2 well-known former GMs with scouting backgrounds ( Minaya and Sabean ) seems to indicate the Yankee commitment will be more to building the farm system or finding and trading for the next young Paul O’Neil rather than blowing their budget to jump in on Carlos Correa and snatching him from under the Mets noses like they would have in the old days.
ELV: I completely agree and you articulated that perfectly. My issue with the Yankees is the last three seasons when, after their great 2017 season, they could have better prepared their roster and not put themselves in this position.
But, you are correct, and please don’t misinterpret, I *love* what the Yankees have done so far. Minaya, Sabean, Judge, & Rodon is nothing less than fantastic for the Yanks. But, why go 90% and use money as an excuse when you’re the #2 revenue-generating team in MLB?
Nonetheless, your point stands and those moves are excellent. They’ve failed at draft/development and desperately needed to fix that. These guys are huge, important steps towards doing that. I’d rather develop than have them buy for sure…..
Cmon man. You’re complaining that a team with a nearly $300M tax tax level is cheap.
No, they’re not cheap. But they’re making a huge mistake if they don’t address weaknesses to get better than the team that has beaten them for five straight years under false pretenses (money is an issue, which it clearly isn’t).
I also understand that many fans of other teams would love to have their team be as successful as the Yankees. So, it’s not disillusionment. It’s just pointing out what should be obvious to the team – winning a WS will generate far more money than they will lose by going over the third tier for one year. They drop significant money next year off the roster. They drop even more than next two years and they will be under the LTT.
Hopefully that clarifies it a bit.
The Yankees have a lot more expenses than just team payroll.
Yep. Player benefits, minor league salaries, signing bonuses, taxes, and other that don’t come to mind at the moment apply. How do you know their revenue? I take it that tickets and ads make up a majority, and I have a hard time seeing tickets getting that much revenue.
Good thing they get the extra picks and extra bonus money for international prospects. They wouldn’t be able to keep up with the big spenders otherwise.
The answer, as it is with all teams, is as much as their ownership allows them. Teams print money.
They overspent well beyond their means. Can’t wait for the fire sale. And the current roster will not win.
^^^works in the Padres’ front office.
Who’s means? Peter Seidler’s? Pretty laughable post. He’s said time and time again that he’s willing to spend to have a perennial winner. He’s “built different” in the fact that he doesn’t mind spending money. He probably made a ton last year. Every home game was near capacity and the city was a-buzz with the team. They were selling out games on Tuesdays. Back in the day, you’d be lucky to have 10,000 people during the week. Now its 40,000+ each and every night.
It’s still January. Wait on it. Preller is always busy and he seems to be getting wiser.
Every team fills its depth with cheaper talent, and none of them wait until the holes on the 26 are taken care of first. Its called multi tasking and has nothing to do with payroll limits.
The OF is Soto/Grish/Tatis what OF hole you guys talking about?
Carpenter will be doing a lot of DHing
Still need a Cueto signing to be fair or a Marlin trade
Tatis isn’t in the Padres lineup until 4/20 and not much OF depth after that. Azocar and Engle.
Henry, the hole is depth. Obviously once Tatis returns on 4/20 the OF is set for starters. Its one of the most talented OF in baseball.
Beyond those 3 there is only Azocar and Engel with no one in the minors behind them that is MLB ready.
The man said 1.57 Bil worth.. lol Pads are close to a $5 Bil valuation
A quick Google search would show how much the Padres franchise is worth.
And whatever you find is worth how much?
Nobody knows the value of a franchise until it’s sold. The guesstimates are always way off.
Not that it matters for this discussion. Franchise market value and how much they can spend on payroll aren’t connected.
Padres are not worth $5 billion. Only the Yankees and Dodgers are in that category. The Mets sold for $2.4 billion and they are in a much larger market.
Seidler’s purchase of 12% interest from Fowler that made him the partner with the largest ownership share for a reported $200 million would indicate he valued the team at about $1.6-1.7 billion at the time. That seems like a realistic price.
Considering the fact that the Padres are the only major league sport in San Diego and with 2 playoff runs since then and increasing attendance, the team might be worth a little bit more than that, but not substantially more.
There’s still time to trade or sign what’s left for a modest price. No reason to panic yet.
I say take a shot in the dark and sign Bauer when he’s finally released. He’s a jerk but he’s still a pretty good pitcher. Would only cost them the league minimum with the Dodgers picking up the rest of the tab. If he ends up sucking or is a cancer to the team just release him and no harm done. Very rarely do you get a chance to sign a borderline number 1-2 ace for the league minimum.
“He’s a jerk” is quite the understatement…..
Who needs basic decency?
No way the padres would sign Bauer and let the dodgers take the moral high ground
His problem is way deeper than being a mere jerk. He’s filed six lawsuits (currently) and continues to maintain that he didn’t violate MLB policy though that finding has been made twice. He’s an instant traveling three-ring circus. I can’t imagine a contender being interested even for free.
@blueskies Don’t hate because your Dodgers already let him go and you guys will be paying him to pitch for a contender this year, because trust me, some pitching needy contender will take a flier on him even if it’s not the padres.
You mean, don’t speak the truth? Sorry, no can do.
I’d be shocked if any MLB team signs Bauer. Maybe he should run for congress where he’d fit in well.
@blueskies No you don’t speak the truth. No Dodger fan can. 99% are a bunch of cry babies who hold on to that Mickey Mouse ring. Maybe you’re new to sports but there’s been plenty of instances where players of lesser talents have received another chance regardless of their character. Look how long kyrie got before the Nets finally decided enough was enough. Someone will give him a chance, and if he ruins that chance by being a cancer, that’s on him. Either way, someone will take a flier on him wether it be the padres, the Phillies, the angels, etc.
Ah, so you’re a troll. Kind of figured.
No, you’re the troll but everyone knows that since you cry about anything Dodger related. I literally state a good argument and your “response” is I’m a troll instead of an intelligent response. Tsk tsk, typical Doyer fan who can’t even come up with an intelligent comeback.
yeah, let’s throw an a-hole into the clubhouse and ruin the chemistry. Rather have re-signed Myers and let him pitch with his 7+ ERA. He’s a Padre (forever)
Is he a good pitcher without the sticky stuff? His 4.36 ERA before he said he started using Spider Tack and other sticky substances to get better grip and spin rates in 2018 is pedestrian. Worse than the 4.04 league average over that period.
His Dodger’s teammates said they didn’t want him back. He refused to apologize to the team or his teammates or he might be a Dodger today. We know he is a cancer in the clubhouse.
He has also not pitched since June 2021.
Add all to that the PR hit of signing him, and I am not sure that any contending team is going to take the chance.
Another starter would be good, but I mean Im not going to completely diss Martinez/Lugo combo, it just seems like at most, they would have 3 top quality arms. Snell has sort of been up and down these past few years, so if at least if the other two pick up the slack, we’d still have three.
Nonetheless, I still think most people fail to see that the Padres lineup is significantly weaker against lefties. with Nola, Kim, Crone, Grisham, and perhaps Carpenter, 1-4 lineup wont cut it, even with decent hitters near the middle and bottom of the lineup.. Sure Carpenter might not play against lefties, but I feel like they’re still missing a strong DH against lefties., even you swap a regular out.
That said, someone like Mccutchen would be nice, even against righties now and then, but Ik he hits lefties better. That would give their lineup against lefties a little more thump. Me personally, I would have went for Martinez (with LA/10 mil) instead of Carpenter or both if possible because I would have a threat either way and not just vs. righties, more or less.
Much of the success of the Padres last year, personally for me was a 4 man rotation, not 3. But even then, I would like another RHB or a batter that hits lefties well in the lineup to balance it out. Even a heavy pull hitter FA could do well with the shift gone essentially. And at this point, it might not cost much. Some potential fill ins could be Mccutchen, Voit, Cruz, and even Donovan Solano.
I appreciate the siginings, but overall, theres a gap for a SP. If not that, definitely versus LHP. Goodluck Padres!
Lol, so they essentially took last year’s lineup, didn’t lose anyone really, added significant pieces, and people still aren’t happy
If I’m a rebuilding team sign me up to take on pomeranz for a prospect. Fip under 3 striking out 12/9ip last 70 innings. Take a shot he gets healthy and you can flip him for more plus the prospect.
Not trying to be snappy, but just why would the Pads move Pom, let alone with a prospect? Seems counterintuitive for a contender to drop a nice ‘pen piece “for payroll purposes” along with said prospect. Hard pass. If Pom is an “issue”, they’d probably just DFA him.
DFA means his contract still counts towards payroll tax…
Correct. I can assure you the Padres are not trying to cut payroll by dumping a potentially valuable ‘pen piece by coupling him with a prospect. He’s in his final year, they’ll just eat the contract.
The Padres sre honga spegd z lot mord money buddy agd thag’s all I have to say buddy
I need another bder
Don’t smoke meth
Wacha or Cueto signing would be a nice inexpensive innings-eating addition to a shaky back of rotation. But frontend is solid, backend has upside. Bullpen is stacked.
Not sold defensively on moving Crony off 2B to 1B and Kim off SS to 2B. Then I guess it’s Tatis to the OF everyday for sure when he’s back. Engel is Profar’s replacement and everyday guy for most of April. So defense worries me with so many guys in new positions after a top-10 defense last year.
Lineupwise Tatis probably leads off most days, but gotta cut the K% if so. Can Carp split the diff between an awful 2021 and unreal 2022 over 400 ABs? Can Grisham split the diff from his last two years out of the 9 hole? Can Kim and Crony make steady improvements at the dish as they enter their primes? If 2 of those 3 things happen, then Tatis-Soto-Manny-Bogaerts-Crony-Kim-Carp-Nola-Grisham could be the best 1-9 in the league.
Prospectwise, we have several AAAA-type guys who could make a leap at any moment–Camp, Morejon, Weathers, etc. and major reinforcements coming at the lowest levels, so I’m not too worried about the currently weak farm at those mid-levels.
Sorry for the ramble, but this was kind of a nothing article, though also a good little checkpoint moment in the offseason for Padres fans.
How have the Padres not traded for Victor Robles from the Nationals yet? It probably wouldn’t take much to get him
I’d like to see them spend $10 billion. Just buy all the best players.
Seidler might try to grant your wish by extending Machado and Soto and signing Ohtani next offseason.
They should get in on Carlos Correa. You can never have enough shortstops.
The Padres. LOL!
Blake Snell for Jack Flaherty. Who blinks… Would be a swap of one year contracts with more cost on Snell’s. Would get Jack back in Cali. Would be a risk for both franchises as Flaherty has been injury prone the last couple seasons, but is highly talented when on the bump consistently. Snell has missed a bunch of starts as well, but has pitched nearly double Jack’s inning total the last two years. I don’t see STL signing either long term if they break out in the FA platform year. Jack’s projected salary is 5.1 mil so the payroll savings would be significant for SD.
If you need to cut payroll it’s an interesting trade. If I am trying to win a World Series, I’d much rather have Snell.
No thanks. The Cardinals will be fine hoping Flaherty is healthy. He’s front of the rotation when healthy. They have no need of another mediocre starter. They have like 6 of those
Hoping they can scrape together $750k for Bauer….
I know we’re talking about how much more SD will spend this winter, but SD will have some hard decisions to make in the near future. When Machado opts out he’ll be likely seeking a contract with a $40M AAV that will take him to at least age 40. Darvish’ contract expires after this year. Do they extend him, and at what cost? Then you have the mammoth expectations of Soto who will be expecting a 12+ year deal with an AAV around $50M. It all makes me think of the last line of ABC’s song, How to Be a Millionaire: “I’ve seen the future, I can’t afford it.”
At some point the players will run out of teams willing and able to sign those contracts. Soto has a better shot since the big spending teams also need outfielders. A lot of huge long term infield contracts have been signed the last two years. Is there another team out there ready to sign a $400 million dollar contract with a 30 year old? With Tatis and Bogarts signed long term, I can see San Diego prioritizing Soto over Machado.
CardsFan: I agree. Its the Big FAs that will always get paid. Its the middle of the road FAs that will be shorted, in relation.
Now that I think about it, SF never spent the money they have been dying to spend. They may give it to Machado next year. Make it an NL West hat trick for him.
Has a team spent $400 million on ANY contract? At all?
Boegarts got $285 million. Judge got $360 million.
So, who was this fictional 30-year-old that got $400 million?
I think you are missing that all of the longer contracts have come with a greatly reduced AAV number. If you look at all the contracts signed this offseason it’s pretty clear that teams are telling players “we will give you the total money you want but we need more years to pay it to you”
Machado has an interesting decision to make with his next deal. His original contract was somewhat more of the “old school” type, where the biggest free agents got 8-10 years and the AAV they wanted. The new contracts are basically all about giving the player the total $$$ they want but spreading out the pay. So for example, he is sure to opt out and say, well you gave Bogaerts $280m at age 30 so I want the same thing. To which the Padres would say, sure we will give you the exact same deal as Xander, though it actually means taking about $4m a year less in pay.
I suspect the teams will push this “spreading it out” so much that in time MLB will have to step in. or risk having teams cutting players in their 40’s with 5 years left on their deals.
I look at that as teams spoofing the tax threshold. They know the last 3 to 5 years of those contracts are wasted years. Players will probably be released rather than let them take up roster sapce. There’s going to be a price to pay for spoofing the tax now. It’s going to increase the chance they later have to choose to be either non-competitive or go ahead and pay an even higher penalty.
These contracts are definitely a product of the teams spoofing the tax numbers.
Not including Machado, who I think the Padres will extend at a lower AAV than the $30 million he is making now, the Padres have $44 million coming off the books at seasons end and 3 other guys, Martinez/Suarez/Lugo, with player options.
They will have to replace Darvish (3/59/20.67 AAV). The Cubs paid $3 million of the $62 million he was owed for 2021-2023. They will also have to replace Snell and his 3/39/$13 million AAV.
What will it take to replace them?
Darvish has a 3.61 ERA as a Padre and averaged 180 IP per season.
Snell has a 3.79 ERA as a Padre and averaged 128 IP per season.
If Morejon can be stretched out to able to throw 120-140 innings in 2024, he could replace Snell. He is the only in house option I can see being able to do that.
Beyond Morejon they are going to have to hit the trade or FA market and replacing 180 innings of 3.60 ERA ball is going to be expensive in this market. It might be easier and cheaper to extend the 36 year old Darvish. 2/32 with an option? Would that get it done? Probably not.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres throw 3 years at Darvish. Playing off the same AAV game. 3/45 for example. When he hits the market he will surely get more money elsewhere, but does he like playing in SD and the chance to win enough to stay anyhow.
I’m really surprised the Padres did not keep one of Manea or Clevinger. Clevinger particularly was just gassed at the end of 2022, but the Padres only need backend starters, not Cy young level. Kind of dumb losing him for what he signed for. He had a 3.18 ERA through August 1st and even by August 31 his ERA was only 3.59. He finished terribly from there, no help that in his last 6 starts he got the Dodgers twice, Seattle & a game at Coors.
This is sort of an all in year for the Padres. That rotation after 2023 is basically Joe Musgrove and nothing else. Losing Hader and possibly Machado. Given those dynamics I’d say they should keep pushing. Sign Cueto to bolster the rotation and resign Profar to add depth at LF/ 1B. It gets them deeper into the tax, but at this point why would they care, it’s sort of built as a now or never roster. So if you’re doing it that way then do it.
I for one think the Boegarts signing was ridiculous. Giving an 11 year deal to a guy in his 30’s when you have so many other pieces on the short term (and BETTER shortstops on the roster) is really dumb. Chucking money at Verlander or Abreu made way more sense to spend now but not wreck your franchise for the subsequent decade.
Padres have spent 266M and are relying on an aging Yu Dharvish, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez at the back of their rotation.
They need to add a Frontline starter in my opinion, and really their only hope in doing so is through a trade that takes on a big salary.
Bauer will be available at the end of the week for league minimum.
If you are Bauer, and the Padres offer you a contract, do you sign with a team that is so close to the drama that is at the heart of all your troubles?
I don’t know that I would.
I’m guessing the “Tranquilo hijo” tee-shirts worn in the Padres clubhouse might stir things up.
Does Bauer want to pitch this year or give it a year cooling off while he solves all those lawsuts?
I don’t know, Go D’Backs.
bwmiller:
Yu Darvish is not a backend starter. He pitched 194 inn last year and finished 8th in Cy Young ballot. 36 years old isn’t your grandfathers 36yo anymore.
Lol, Dharvish is a good pitcher, but 36 is old for MLB starters, doesn’t mean he doesn’t have another good season in him, but the probabilities of him losing a little off his fastball, or maybe his slider doesn’t break quite as much.
Anyhow he’s 36 and the point is they have a high payroll with a mediocre pitching staff, it’s far from the ideal roster, but maybe four great hitters is a recipe for success.
@dvmin But Tatis isn’t a cancer, right? Manny had a reputation of being a dirty player and a clubhouse cancer too before the Padres signed him and now look, he’s the Padres leader of that clubhouse. Tatis wether you like it or not is a cancer to the team too with his immature behavior, heck Manny even got into it with him in the 2021 season. Bringing in Bauer would be a low cost, low risk, high reward signing. It’s a smart move because one, you pay him the minimum, and two, if he does become a distraction, you just release him and it cost you nothing. Why wouldn’t you want to take that low risk, high reward chance on a guy with his talent? You don’t gotta buy his jersey or like the guy but if he can help the Padres win a World Series, why not go for it?
People need to curb the expectations on Bauer. By opening day it will be 20 months since he last pitched in a major league game? I know everyone is acting like he will be top level Bauer when he gets back but honestly, I don’t think he will.
@Bill. I know you believe Bauer is low risk , and you’re certainly entitled to that opinion. My guess is many teams feel he represents a major risk in terms of being a distraction. The Padres might feel they are a legitimate contender already and don’t need to inject Bauer. The comparision to Tatis is off because Tatis is already under contract and they’re trying to manage the situation with him.
Bring in the Eskimo bro now so you have him when pitchers and catchers report… if he’s not a perfect fit, you cut him at a cost cheaper than 2 orders of Seaside Nachos with 2 Sculpins. It’s not every day you can upgrade your rotation for the League minimum and I believe BoMel can manage the distraction down to a moot point.
Make it Baja Bettys and 2 pints o Epic and it’s a deal. I’m easy.
@Brew88 And you are entitled to your opinion as well, we see things differently and that’s ok. I just think what do you have to lose? You sign him now and by the time spring training is over if he’s not a fit for the clubhouse or he continues to be a distraction, you cut him loose and it cost them nothing. He’s good enough where he can be a difference maker. I understand someone people on here are saying he hasn’t pitched since 2021 which is true, but he’s been still throwing and keeping in shape so I think he would do fine. Like I said, it’s low risk high reward. Someone will take a chance on him, and I’m guessing a pitching needy contender like the Padres, Angels, Giants, or Rays will take a flier for the league minimum.
Clubhouse chemistry, fan trust, ticket sales, protests at your spring training facility and regular season games, Lots they would have to lose.
Very little to gain since he is not even average without the sticky stuff and hasn’t pitched in nearly 2 years.
@Padsfan I highly doubt there would be or much outrage in taking a chance on Bauer. Maybe you’re too young to remember, but the padres have taken plenty of chances on guys that have had off field problems and this would be no different. Padres, Bauer, and Padres fans have a common goal in sight so why wouldn’t they at least try? If it’s that bad you release him and no harm taken. Why are you making it seem like we would be stuck with a bad contract for 50 years? He’s not a great guy I get it but he a pretty good pitcher still, and not over the hill yet. Take the chance is all I’m saying, it’s low risk, high reward and if it pays off then I doubt a single person would complain.
Pads should trade Grisham and Kim to the Fish for Sandy, Eury, Avi Garcia/Soler
Win/win for both teams
Since the padres sign machado to go with hosmer 4 years ago all I have heard from the media is how much more can the padres spend. Yet every off season they continue to spend. Some local San Diego reporters said they only have 25m to spend this off season and the blew right by that. The only limitation to spending is what the owner is willing to spend. Yes there is a tax which adds to the cost but it isn’t a hard cap.
People say well they can’t resign Soto or keep machado. The owner is already on record saying they are open to giving Soto a 500m contract and has also said they have significant significant significant interest in keep machado. While neither are sure things I’d take the padres vs the field when it comes to retaining these players. I would even give them nearly as good of a chance as any at signing Ohtani if he becomes a free agent.
Padres owner has money and has the additional backing of a hedge fund that has given them access to over 1b in cash if needed.
So it’s time for fans, media and what not to stop underestimating the padres ability to spend.
Is the team a perfect team, no. Can they still add additional quality pitching via trade between now and the deadline, absolutely. They can still even add some additional depth across the board.
I’m mean they offered judge 414m, that’s more per year and total value then they spent the entire off season. If the padres want a player even as the the payroll stand right now they will make every attempt to get them.
Preller has a plan?