Feb. 10: Darvish will be paid a $6MM signing bonus and receive a $24MM salary in 2023, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll then be paid $15MM in 2024, $20MM in 2025, $15MM in 2026 and $14MM apiece in 2027-28. The contract also contains a full no-trade clause, and any Cy Young win in the contract’s first five seasons would boost his 2028 salary by $1MM.
Feb. 9: The Padres have locked up a second key member of the rotation for the long haul. San Diego announced a new six-year contract with right-hander Yu Darvish that’ll keep him in the fold through the 2028 season. The deal reportedly guarantees the Wasserman client $108MM overall. Since Darvish had already been under contract for $18MM for 2023, it’s five years and $90MM in new money.
It’s a remarkable contract when considering Darvish’s age, although at an average annual value of $18MM, Darvish hardly needs to perform like an ace in order to continue to justify the price tag. That’s the same AAV the Phillies committed to Taijuan Walker this offseason, for instance, and over the life of the new contract, the AAV for high-end pitching only figures to continue to increase. That said, any long-term deal running through a pitcher’s age-41 season — Darvish will turn 42 about six weeks before the contract ends — is obviously teeming with risk.
As things currently stand, however, Darvish remains among the game’s best starters. The right-hander’s age-35 campaign saw him pile up 194 2/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball with strikeout and walk rates (25.6% and 4.8%) that were far better than league average (particularly the walk rate). Darvish’s 95 mph average fastball was actually the second-best mark of his career, and those 194 2/3 fames were the second-highest single-season total he’s logged since signing with the Rangers back in 2012.
Darvish had Tommy John surgery back in March 2015, missing the entirety of that season and a substantial chunk of the 2016 campaign while recovering. His 2018 season with the Cubs, who originally signed him to the six-year $126MM deal on which he’d previously been playing, was limited to just 40 innings thanks to a triceps injury. Since that time, however, Darvish has been quite durable. He made all 12 of his starts during the shortened 2020 season, and in each of his past three 162-game seasons, he’s taken the hill at least 30 times.
The Padres had been set to lose both Darvish and Blake Snell to free agency following the 2023 season, with both heading into the final seasons of their respective contracts. Darvish, however, now looks likely to not only remain in San Diego but finish out his career as a member of the Padres under president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who played a major role in signing Darvish when he was in the Rangers’ front office. Darvish joins San Diego native Joe Musgrove, who inked a five-year extension last summer, as the bedrock of the Padres’ rotation for the foreseeable future.
Keeping Darvish under contract is of particular benefit with the final two spots on the starting staff already going to relievers who’ll be making the shift to full-time starters in 2023: Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Both players have player options on their contracts for 2024, meaning if things go smoothly they’ll likely opt out of the contracts and test free agency on the heels of improved platform seasons. If the shift to starting roles don’t work out, then the Padres will obviously be seeking alternative options, be they in-house or external acquisitions. Either way, prior to the Darvish extension it was possible — if not downright likely — that San Diego would’ve entered the 2023-24 offseason in search of as many as four starting pitchers. That’s no longer the case.
Darvish carries extra importance from a long-term vantage point when considering the Padres’ dealings in recent years. Preller is among the sport’s most aggressive executives on the trade market, and with the Friars in an all-out, win-at-all-costs blitz, they’ve shown little concern with dismantling their once-vaunted farm system as a means of bringing in Major League talent. Trades of names like MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill and Luis Patino have depleted the organization’s pitching pipeline, while the general attrition (injuries and/or poor performances) from the remaining prospects like Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon and Pedro Avila leave the system without much immediate help on the horizon.
Beyond the sheer need for long-term help in the rotation, there’s surely an element of financial creativity at play here. Darvish’s preexisting six-year, $126MM contract came with a $21MM luxury hit (based on the contract’s AAV). Since this new deal is being tacked onto the end of that old contract, it effectively becomes an 11-year, $216MM deal. That comes with a reduced luxury hit of $19.64MM. It’s not a major savings, but the Padres were right up against the third tier of luxury penalization, so any newly created breathing room is quite welcome. Once crossing into that third luxury tier, a team is penalized not only in the form of steeper tax rates but also by having their top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 places.
The Darvish extension puts some distance between the team and that particularly undesirable slap on the wrist. It also makes things slightly easier for Preller and his staff if they hope to remain under that tax level but still want to create some wiggle room for in-season acquisitions on the trade market.
The deal is also heavily front-loaded, with Darvish’s 2023 salary jumping from $18MM to $30MM. That leaves $78MM to be distributed over the final five years. That’s of particular note given changes in the recent collective bargaining agreement, which stipulate that upon being traded, only the remainder of a player’s contract counts toward the new team’s luxury tax. Previously, the tax hit would remain the same. In other words, a potential trade of Darvish down the road will come with a considerably lighter luxury hit for an acquiring team by virtue of the contract’s front-loaded nature. Of course, with the full no-trade protection he’s been granted, that could very well end up a moot point.
If the $273MM tax barrier remains a hard stopping point for the Padres once the season’s underway, that’ll likely require the Padres to convince a trade partner to include some money or take on a contract in return. Nonetheless, this extra bit of space could prove useful in accommodating more complementary additions like bullpen help or added bench depth. Alternatively, it could provide necessary space to eventually select the contract of a non-roster veteran with a salary of modest note — someone like reliever Craig Stammen or catcher Pedro Severino, for instance.
As we saw with the Padres’ 11-year signing of Xander Bogaerts — and their reported overtures toward Aaron Judge and Trea Turner — the team is clearly comfortable paying a player into his early 40s if it means lowering the overall luxury bill. All of those offers, Bogaerts and Darvish included, featured annual rates comfortably shy of where the players might have otherwise landed on a more conventional structure. Darvish’s newly added $90MM in guarantees, for instance, could perhaps have been obtained over a three- or certainly a four-year deal had he opted to play out the final season of his contract and return to free agency. Instead, he’ll effectively take three- or four-year money and spread it out over a five-year extension of his contract in order to remain with a contending team and a setting where he’s clearly comfortable.
Those benefits, in the end, are generally secondary. The Padres clearly had a desire to extend Darvish, and likely agreed upon the requisite dollars before determining the length of the contract and, thereby, the extent to which they could tamp down their tax bill. The end result is that Darvish and Musgrove will continue to form a formidable one-two punch in the years to come. And while paying Darvish in his age-40 and age-41 seasons might prove an untenable outcome, it also perhaps creates some present-day savings in terms of luxury taxes that will make those final years a bit easier to stomach.
AJ Cassavell and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Darvish and the Padres had agreed to a six-year, $108MM contract. Feinsand reported it was a front-loaded deal that contained a $30MM salary for 2023.
5/90 seems like too much. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a buyout and/or team option years to make this trade more economically make sense.
Sounds like a solid deal. Look at Verlander Scherzer. Look at the early 30s guys who get 15 to 20. Yu fits right in the middle.
Scherzer was in his early 30s when joined the Nats. Yu is already 36 lol.
And the Verlander extension was mixed bags for the Astros because he missed two seasons. They did win last season with him, so it was a good deal no matter what.
Except Scherzer and Verlander are HOF level talent and Darvish is above average at best. 2022 was his first really good year since 2014. I do not count 2020.
Except he’s not getting paid anything near Scherzer or Verlander…So he doesn’t have to be an ace at 41.
Scherzer got a $43+ million AAV deal going into his age 37 season and Verlander got a $43+ million AAV going into his age 40 season.
Those deals were obviously much shorter.
The Verlander extension was atrocious for the Astros. The contract he signed after 2021 wasn’t an extension. He received a QO and everything.
Scherzer got $130+ million. Darvish got $90 million. Scherzer obviously got much more money annually and total.
Why are you guys comparing Scherzer and Verlander to Darvish? They were much more accomplished than Darvish for their career. Darvish is a level or 2 below them, that’s why they got way more money despite their age.
Sherzer is starting to slip.
Old timer 78
Have you seen YU pitch in 2022? He is getting better with age.
He may get Rich Hill type deal he signed with Pittsburgh at 41 years old. Yu could end up being like John Smoltz or Greg Maddox as he ages. Yu is a pretty good pitchers and under the radar quite a bit.
If you don’t count 2020, then you can’t count 2018. He pitched less that year than 2020. Also, you can’t count the poor starts in 2017, because I don’t count them and I decide what data fits my opinion! You also have to include the starts he DIDNT make. The days he didn’t start since 2014 were all days he would have pitched, at minimum, a compete game shutout. Also, all 2019 poor starts were due to a juiced ball and all good starts were because he’s a great
So, if we take all available Darvish stats and leave out the ones “I don’t count” then he actually is HOF caliber. In baseball, basketball, and hockey.
This actually made me laugh! Hilarious!
I was answering your comment mentioning Scherzer and Verlander.
Darvish doesn’t have to be Scherzer. He is a top 10-15 starting pitcher, a #1 starter without question, and his AAV is $25 million less.
By extending Darvish the Padres get 3 years of a great pitcher, 3 years of a declining pitcher that is still a good #4-#5, and can afford to add another Darvish type to their rotation while spending less money than Scherzer would have cost.
Would you rather have two Darvish’s in your rotation the next 3 years or one Scherzer?
He does already have his own museum in Kobe, Japan.
MLB has buyouts? Since when?
Since that thing called ‘a long time’. Pretty much ever since option years were added onto the end of a contract. The team either picks up the option or buys out that final year.
It looks like luxury tax evasion: long term to lower the AAV, front-loaded so he can retire after three years and get the intended salary.
How often do players retire with money remaining on a contract? I would put everything I have on him not retiring (barring devastating injury) before this contract concludes
1. Yes, it is obviously a luxury tax evasion move.
2. If you were Darvish, you’d want to retire after the contract ends so that you would collect your salary.
3. Other than “under the table” buyouts, you can attach a buyout to an option.
4. The comment was made before the edit. I would want to change my comment as well.
He most likely won’t retire. The players union frowns upon it. He might get released or traded with the Friars eating most of the money.
Sean Manaea and Clevenger got $12 million a year each (Manaea x 2). I’d rather have Darvish @ $18 million a year. At 42, he won’t be any worse than those two.
The price of FA pitchers is off the charts.
You can’t know how good any pitcher will be over 5 years in advance. There’s a very good chance that Darvish winds up below replacement level by the final year of this contract if not sooner.
At least the deal is front-loaded. The salaries for the last three years are somewhat more reasonable albeit still likely too high for a pitcher in his late 30s and early 40s.
Wow, this is a lot for a soon to be 36 year old pitcher with a ton of mileage on his arm and a history of injuries and missed time. I think Yu are mistaken if Yu believe that Yu will be good for the rest of this contract. Yu have to wonder what the Padres are thinking they are getting … Yu must be happy as I think Yu knows Yu never know when an injury may pop up so Yu better cash in while Yu can. I just think SD will be regretting this contract in the not too distant future, but Yu never know!
Since 2019 Darvish has the 8th most innings pitched in baseball. 51 IP more than Scherzer. 211 more than Verlander.
He has been the poster boy for good health at an advanced age for a baseball player.
I’ve never done the research on this but I’ve always had a suspicion that guys who have a fairly balanced usage of four or five pitches in their arsenal are less susceptible to major shoulder or elbow injuries than guys who just go max effort with a two pitch combo. Just seems logical to me that differentiating pitch usage would lead to more flexibility and strength in the joints, tendons and ligaments in your arm.
I’ve always had a suspicion that guys who have a fairly balanced usage of four or five pitches
100% correct in my amateur opinion. You can throw 100, but if you have only two pitches, guys can foul off a lot pitches, forcing you to over-exert. And it is easier to throw those “get-ahead” pitches getting the count to 0-1.
I have similar suspicions about their ability to age better. Darvish already mixes his pitches a bit like a junkballer and has a filthy slider so he’s in no way he is reliant on his heat. That said Randy Johnson had a limited arsenal and aged well and Felix Hernandez had a deep one and didn’t.
To your point felix didn’t deal with injuries the way some pitchers do, he just couldn’t make his stuff work once his velocity was gone. Once that change up didn’t drop like the nastiest sinker ever seen he had trouble making his pitch mix work.
Lol. Well played.
Yur comment is riddled with typos, sir.
Was this sarcasm? I feel like we need to know.
I hate to admit it, but wow was my first reaction.
Unfortunately, we will now be encouraging the “wow guy” in his evil and trollish machinations to the detriment of the mlbtr commenting universe.
Bart Harley Jarvis
You can always go with, “Sweet fancy Moses!” instead. It was a ‘Seinfeld’ favorite.
You Can Put It In The Books .
“No soup for Yu!”
Buuba ho tep
Bazinga (Sheldon Cooper) or Shazam (Gomer Pyle)
AJ must have Polaroids of somebody. The contracts he continues to give out snd still be employed amaze me
18 AAV is great….
…if he pitches like the darvish he did last year at ages 39 40 and 41.
Not at his age. Terrible deal. Padres gonna bottom out in 2-3 years and be stuck with a high payroll underperforming team. Remember the fall of the Phillies after their last title. It was super ugly.
There was no mention of a no trade clause. Until he’s spent 5 years in SD, he can always be traded.
Next year will be his 5th year.
So, worse case scenario, you have Darvish as your #5 in 4 years, that’s not a bad thing. The price of pitching is only going to go up.
18M a few years from now is nothing. He won’t have to be an ace to justify it.
He will be old, he won’t have to be an ace to justify the money. But at that age you can’t even guarantee that he will be a #4 starter. My problem with it as the domino effect, you will have a bunch of aging players that are taking a good chunk of the payroll if Preller keeps making deals like this, it’s not sustainable, do you really think the Padres are going to have 300+ million dollar payrolls every year? Even the dodgers can’t sustain that. You will be stuck paying player for almost zero production if father time takes its toll, and most of the time it does!
They front loaded the deal so even if he isn’t that great the last two years it won’t be that big of a deal.
He will be old, he won’t have to be an ace to justify the money.
Excellent point. Too many folks look at the length of the contract and take the total divided by the years. It should be more like a “sum of the years depreciation method” for players.
Instead of thinking it as $75M/5, and $15M looks expensive 5 years from now, it should be more like:
Based on last year’s production, he is easily worth $25M next year.
A contract they will regret!
I’m sure they already plan on eating the last two years, which is “only” $36M
I would lean towards no regret.
He can add to that growing list on the Padres. That team will be terrible once Soto leaves.
when Soto leaves in 2040?
Not even close. No team with a $267M payroll is terrible.
Good for him, and good for Yu too.
It’ll be interesting to see how these contracts taking players into their 40’s work out…
Total $ is all that matters. Anything you get in the 40s is just a bonus as long as you don’t over pay. Most these teams over pay.
It matters when you have 100 million dollars of useless payroll in 3 years.
But it won’t be that. It won’t be 100M and it won’t be useless.
It’s just a bunch of billionaires that buy teams as a hobby. They overpay and they know it.
“ It’s just a bunch of billionaires that buy teams as a hobby. They overpay and they know it.”
Well, what’s wrong with that, exactly? I’d rather have a billionaire owner who, you know, wants to win games, tries to win championships, and prioritizes that over attempting to milk every penny from the enterprise as if they’re running a Subway.
Silly take imo. SDP sold 800,000 more tickets last year than in 2021. I’d bet on a significant increase this year as well. And any increase in fan attendance is usually accompanied by increases in media revenue.
These are good business decisions. Markets always dictate strategy, but teams like the LAA are making a mistake by NOT overspending while they have a window.
Would be interesting indeed. I wonder what the Padres see to make him think he’s going to age well.
615 IP the last 4 seasons?
And that total would be much higher if 2020 had been a full season. In 2020, he pitched ‘only’ 76 innings, but that ranked 5th in IP that year.
Past is not indicative of future. Being able to maintain his velocity and continuing to improve in certain areas would make more sense.
danyekim, Past may not be indicative of future performance, but, short of a crystal ball, it’s the only predictive tool available. It’s true that having a good record of health is no guarantee of future health, but look at how teams shy away from players with a poor injury record.
Every FA signing, and extension is a gamble. What else should teams base their gamble on? If you aren’t going to gamble that a guy who’s been healthy will stay that way, how else should a team base their decisions on who to sign?
Future performance should be based on logic, current ability, talent, (and maybe) luck.
Am I saying Darvish being healthy for the past few years isn’t a good indicator of a consistent bill of health? No. Obviously, staying healthy is a skill and he’s done a great job mastering it over his career.
However, I am saying “he pitched 615 innings last 4 years” is a popular argument that isn’t, in itself, an indicator of being worth $108m over a pitcher’s age 36-41 seasons. This deal is a 3/90 extension that the Padres are willing to eat in years 4 and 5.
The comparison is between a guy that pitched 615 innings over the last year, versus a guy that, say managed only 400 innings over the last 4 years. You may disagree, but I think the 615 IP guy, will be viewed as having a lot more value with FOs, than the 400 IP guy, even with knowledge that the 615 IP is no guarantee of future availability. Again, since both are gambles, which is the better gamble?
No, the question is “Is Darvish worth $108m over the next 6 years?”
If your only counter to this question is “He’s pitched 615 innings,” which was the case in the comment section here, I would say you’re focusing on the wrong things.
Since the Padres are operating with much more information I would say they have a stronger understanding of their own calculus.
The best indicator of future performance is past performance.
There is a much higher chance that a player with a recent history of good health will stay healthy than there is of a player with a recent history of injury issues will stay healthy. That is not only logical. It’s backed up by history.
Darvish performance over the last 3 years was top 10 or top 12 in baseball. 3.34 ERA with FIP and peripherals to match. If he made it to free agency at the end of 2023 after another season like 2022, the deal would have been closer to $30 million AAV over a shorter term. 3-4 years.
The deal he just signed is a 5 year, $90 million extension. He was already under contract for 2023.
The best indicator of future performance is not past performance. We can agree to disagree. It is a variety of factors. Past performance isn’t even the most important factor; does not indicate how a pitcher is at its current state which is far more impactful. As I’ve already mentioned, obviously avoiding injury is a skill and should be recognized as such.
The deal he just signed is effectively a 6-year, $108 million deal. He will likely be a wash the last two years.
History also supports a pitcher falling off after a certain point. Where it will be for Darvish, who knows. He is obviously one of the better pitchers in the game and that may be delayed. It was for Scherzer and Verlander. Darvish is obviously a tier or two below both pitchers and will thus be an overpay.
Well then we’re in complete disagreement. The post by @Pads Fans, who posted the 615 IP as an indicator of being a good gamble in regards to health/injury risk is the crux of this discussion. You.re the one focusing on the wrong thing in that context.
The question “Is Darvish worth $108m over the next 6 years?” is a different discussion. But I’m willing to play along with a different issue. Considering the premium that starting pitching commands, a reliable #2-#3 SP who’s a good injury risk, then yes, he is.
Which reminds me. You didn’t answer my question. If past performance is not a factor, then what do you base a decision on, for a guy Darvish, or anyone for that matter, as his worth, and risk/reward analysis for a multi-year deal?
Good, reasonable men can disagree. I have no problem with that. I would say it’s a risky gamble, not great. My initial reaction was that it was a harsh overpay, now I think it’s a slight overpay that takes up around 10% of the Padres payroll in 5 years.
As for your question, I’ve answered it several times in the thread.
Okay I went back and looked. I didn’t find your answer in several places, but did find “logic, current ability, talent, (and maybe) luck.”. Sorry for the spurious charge on my part.
Not sure luck can be quantified. And I find your criteria a bit thin for multi-year, multimillion dollar contracts. What is the logic based on? You need input before applying any logic. How do assess current ability? It seems like you’d be reducing the data down to a small sample, if you aren’t looking at past performance. And isn’t talent best defined by past performance?
What kind of gobbledygook bs was that danye? The ONLY possible indicator of future performance is past performance. None of your bs spin even makes any logical sense. Don’t bother answering because I have seen enough of your garbage already.
If you can’t think past this simple idea, I don’t know what to tell you. Simply put past performance is not the best indicator of future performance. It is common think. You haven’t even seen my comment, which I have deleted because of close-minded people such as yourself. Continue to be wrong.
hey what about women?
Since they are not currently playing games, past performance is the only indicator of future performance we have. Some of the advanced metrics are better than 90% accurate at predicting future performance based on past performance.
Unless Kanye has a crystal ball that can predict the future with 100% accuracy, past performance is the only thing we have to go on. .
Logic? That requires data. In this case past performance.
Current ability? They are not playing so the only way to determine ability is to look at recent past performance.
Talent? That is measured by … you guessed it … past performance.
Luck? How do you quantify that?
So what Kanye is saying is that he is talking out his nether regions. He is a troll, and he just dominated a thread.
So, you deleted your comment that he had just shown you to be incorrect? OK.
Did I say performance must be literally quantified? No. And it does not. Current skill set is based on a number of factors, even more than I mentioned here.
Good logic is not determined by past data points. It is determined by the ability to connect different dots intuitively into a whole that objectively makes sense.
Whether a team is playing or not also obviously has no bearing on current ability. We may not be able to gauge it. It does not mean it does not exist.
Past performance is obviously a great indicator of what a player may be able to do in the future. It is not the only metric and should be treated as such.
The general public is only exposed to entry-level result statistics and the focus should instead be on development and ability of current players. It is extremely difficult to quantify as you alluded multiple times in your post. It is also not perfect. That is why the teams that are best at it are the best teams in baseball, as they should be.
Nah, I just deleted a more detailed comment outlining my philosophy on how teams think about players. But you know, keep assuming I’m trolling.
Feel free to disagree as much as you would like, miss.
Logic: Reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity.
To be valid, there must be data to verify the validity of the proposition. In baseball that data is past performance. The stats.
Your propositions have been shown to be invalid. Not based on facts. So, any conclusion you come to is also invalid. In terms you might understand, its wrong.
Since you are obviously just trolling, I am going to allow you to do that without my having to be subject to reading your drivel.
None of my propositions have shown to be wrong or invalid. Every point that has been made against my terms has shown to be either irrelevant to the discussion or wrong in a general basis, typos not included. I operate in the world of ideas. No idea has been proven wrong thus far, and I’ve backed it up with logic.
Being dismissive and censoring others is just an obvious sign of blatant dictatorship, which will inevitably fall to a more capable successor. If that is who you are, then so be it. Does not make any of my points invalid.
You are mistaken, I mean invalid, I mean wrong when assuming I am a troll. A troll enjoys and watches other peoples’ misfortunes. I would be surprised if that didn’t fit your description. Instead, I intend to discuss, spread information, and change peoples’ outdated way of thinking so that better systems of thought persist.
If your way of backing out of a discussion is to insult, block and ignore, then that is your perogative. It does not change any of the points I’ve made in this thread: past performance is not the best indicator of present talent, and WAR shouldn’t necessarily be quantified literally when discussing the value of players. These are logical, factual and can be backed up as concrete ideas should be.
He changes his premise everytime he is shown to be wrong.
I’ve already won this argument, and you have to go into multiple accounts to back up your own points. Continue to be a sad troll. This will be my last response to you, as you’ve clearly given up.
Everything you have said is demonstrably incorrect. When it is pointed out that what you said was wrong, you change the parameters. Most people have blocked you. Or have you not noticed that you don’t get likes except from yourself and that the people that originally responded to you no longer do?
Well he throws a lot of different breaking balls and arm angles while still having a decent fastball and he knows how to pitch and he has a relaxed, fluid delivery. I think that’s the kind of guy that can last and be still be effective as he ages.
No it won’t. It will be terrible.
Haha Padres. Gonna regret this one for sure. Don’t care what he’s already done. This is about the future.
Even if the only get 2 or 3 good yrs, 18 per AAV is a drop in the bucket.
Good for Yu. I didn’t see this coming. I give it 3 years until they regret it.
It’s basically a three-year extension that they spread out over five years to tamp down the luxury-tax bill in the short-term. If he pitches well in the first three (new) seasons of the deal, they’ll probably be thrilled. They’ll probably be happy to overpay on those final two seasons, knowing they saved a good chunk of that money in a lighter luxury bill in the here and now.
If it’s “only” the first two new seasons where he remains effective (2024-25), I imagine they’d still be fine with that.
The only real disaster scenario is if he implodes between 2023-25. There’s obviously risk of that, but with Musgrove the only surefire 2024 starter on the roster right now and a thinned out farm system behind him, the alternative was going to be looking to fill at least two and possibly up to four rotation spots this winter. In that scenario, they’re still taking on the risk of pitcher injuries and probably paying full market rate multiple times over in order to do so.
I was just about to comment this is more or less a 3/90 deal that Bonillas the Padres for a couple of years. The problem is, that’s not really worth it for an aging #2-3 pitcher especially when the Padres can likely procure pitchers in a similar range over the next few years.
The Padres also have a lot of good pitching prospects in their lower farm system.
To be fair… not really :/. Obviously they used to have Gore, Patino, Weathers and Morejon. First two traded while last two still TBD, and frankly they are busting hardcore.
And yes I know you said lower farm system. Just unfortunate how the Padres pitching depth was just a year or two ago and now they have to commit $15m to make Seth Lugo start. Lesko and Snelling aren’t even in A ball yet. Would not call them “good.” Just ok.
Fortunately their top 2-3 are durable enough to make procuring reinforcements in the midst of the season a viable option for the year. Though I still think this deal is a massive overpay.
#2-#3? Yu was top 10-12 among all starters the last 3 seasons. A #2 is 30th to 59th. A #3 is 60th+.
If he is a #2 on your team, then you have an exceptional starting staff.
Fair to say he’s more of a high #2 than a #3. Also fair to say it would not change my point much if at all.
What part of top 10-12 do you not understand?
There are 30 teams. If a pitcher is top 10-12 in MLB then by definition he is a #1. This is not difficult to understand for the vast majority of people, but for some reason it is for you.
Please stop arguing about things that are WAY over your head.
Are you dense?
You’re the one proclaiming that he’s a top 10-12 pitcher, not me. In addition, nobody else is saying that. The only stat that matters where he’s in that category is innings pitched.
ERA+, xWOBA, and xFIP all have him as around 30th in the league. A year older, one should expect him to be a bit less effective going forward. That would make him a high end #2.
If you can’t understand another person’s more sophisticated thought process then you shouldn’t be here in the first place.
Great explanation Steve, thank you.
You are obviously dense.
But please, keep burying yourself deeper.
I just realized you don’t understand how to read those stats. Pearls before swine.
xwOBA is a hitting stat. Its not even listed for pitchers.
Just another example of your lack of knowledge and honesty.
No reason to even see your comments anymore.
ERA – 14th
ERA- – 14th
FIP – 10th
xFIP – 13th
fWAR – 8th
bWAR – 7th
ERA+ – 11th
Even you should be able to understand that.
Expected opposing xWOBA? Do you need me to spell it out for you that literally?
You just posted by past 3 years. The stats that I referenced was by the past year, which is much more indicative of his current value.
If you’re going to try to argue and troll, do it right. I’m making salient points here. You’re twisting stats to fit your narrative.
The comment you were responding to said: “#2-#3? Yu was top 10-12 among all starters the last 3 seasons.”
Did you look at Darvish’s stats for the last 3 seasons? They show he is in the top 10 in a few stats like WAR (both versions), IP, FIP, SIERA, K/9 and K%, BB%, BAA, WHIP; and not lower than top 14 in any that count like xFIP and ERA-.
I acknowledge that. That’s the past 3 years. However, this contract is for the next 6 seasons. Over the past calendar year, his performance has been that of a low end #1 / high end #2. Considering his age, that’s the most accurate indicator of his current ability, minus a small notch. Therefore, he should be around the 30th best starting pitcher in baseball.
Whether I responded to the comment or not does not change the variables at hand.
Yeah but it adds up with the way there handing out deals to people that are going to be playing for them in their late 30s or 40s. In two years the Padres will probably give Juan Soto 500 million dollars to play until he’s 45!
Years are irrelevant. Give him 20 years. 50 years. Doesn’t matter. They don’t need to play the length of the contract. It’s to spread out the money. Maybe you get lucky and they age well.
It’s not irrelevant if it keeps you from signing other players. I’m not sure if the Padres are going to be able to spend like this forever
If they don’t have a plan for the next 6 years they won’t be successful with or without this contract.
You have a point there, thanks for debating this with me in a positive manner, civil disagreement is needed in society.
@Marinararivera No problem and you are welcome. As a classical educated critical thinker it was easy to do. Good luck with the other 98 percent of society.
You Can Put It In The Books .
Get a room, you two.
Oh my God you are so funny! I don’t think anybody has ever said that before!
I agree probably 2 years at possible peak performance but wow didn’t see this one coming.
And you pretend that you know that future?
Yes I do. Go sit down.
But I don’t think this will be their biggest regret.
Compare it to Hosmer, Myers and we’ll see about Tatis.
Hosmer and Myers are gone. Tatis is up in the air.
One of these things is not like the others…
I’m always a “wait and see” guy when it comes to contracts. Yu is 36, there is no doubt in my mind that this is probably going to blow up in their faces down the line.
If you wait and see you will see the Mets Rangers taking him from you for 150 million.
“No doubt in my mind that this is probably going to blow up”.
In other news I am 100% certain that there’s a chance I might eat a ham sandwich today.
Make sure to probably consider using a microwave.
Yu gotta be kidding me!
Padres are cornering the market on stupid contracts.
For real, I don’t get why people think Preller is a good gm.
Angels Nationals Tigers still have them beat. This isn’t a awful contract. Actually neutral. Machado Musgrove was a bargain. Hosmer Bogaerts awful.
It’s better than the Musgrove deal.
This is one of the WORST decisions I have ever seen by a MLB team. Why would you give a 35 yr old pitcher a 6 year contract with a history of injuries and inconsistent performance??? Darvish is stellar for 1 year then garbage for the next seasons.
He is too much of up and down player. Makes no sense at all.
I’d be very surprised if this didn’t work out well for SD. Depending on the exact terms, a guy like Darvish can easily be worth $75M over just three years. He had a 4.4 bWAR last year. Even if he declines 0.5/year. that makes his next three seasons 3.9, 3.4, and 2.9, or a total of 10.2 WAR. That alone is worth $75M.
I agree with you that this contract will pay off for the Padres. Even at a 7% regression its still a profitable contract for them. 4.09 WAR, 3.80 WAR, 3.54 WAR. Total of 11.43 WAR
For 2023 the value of a point of WAR for FA contracts is $9.2 million. I don’t think that will go down in the next 5 years. Do you?
Regression for 36-40 year old pitchers is closer to 9% annually. Joe’s numbers were pretty close. 10.2 WAR over the next 3 seasons at $9.2 million per point of WAR means this deal is a wash over the next 6 seasons. That is what the best FA deals are, even over the length of the deal.
Wow, that seems like a bargin for the Padres. Less than $20 million for an all-star caliber SP is a great deal for SD in this baseball economy. The only downside is that he’s closer to 40 than 30, but he’s continued to pitch well despite advancing age.
The off the cuff reaction – “through his age 41 season…are yu nuts?”.
The “yu’ never know” reaction…if there is anyone that has a shot at pitching in a solid manner into his early forties, Yu would potentially be one of them. So this could actually age rather well with a bit of luck and continued commitment by Darvish to stay on top of things.
Sure – Scherzer and Verlander are better, and they are unicornish. But paying Verlander $43M per year in his age 40 / 41 seasons, which is crazy but perhaps crazy like a fox gives some perspective.
Not a fanboy of Preller at all, but this might not be one of his really crazy moves either.
Though I’d tend to agree with this assessment, I dislike the process in which this extension came about. Preller obviously asked for something like 4/80 and ended up paying another year for Darvish at an advanced age.
I’d much rather see more established pitchers in free agency get overpaid than extending a 36-year old to a 5 year deal, especially since San Diego will become a more attractive destination over the next few years.
If Preller continues to make these types of decisions then the Padres will be screwed more quickly than not.
what the f***
Sorry Padres fans, that was really dumb
We disagree, but hey, Yu be Yu. =)
The Padres are going for it
Indeed sir, we need some bling-bling!! Cheers
6 years? Goodness, I get the AAV is low but I don’t see him being the pitcher he is for more than 2 or 3 years max. He was great last year but the second half of 2021 would scare me. he’s 36 years old!
Let’s say you are correct. If he signed 2/60 or 3/90 would that make you feel better? That’s pretty close to the money he would get on a short term deal. So the padres added a year or two to bring down his aav to 18m. Which lowers they amount they would pay because they are 3rd time tax offenders.
When the padres extend machado he will prob get 12-14 years. Once again to lower his aav. It’s basically the new way of deferred money.
Yes, yes it would. Exactly what you said 2 years 60m would be the smart thing. All these long term deals add up and in the not so far future the Padres will be playing a lot of aging players.
The problem with that is the padres would be paying nearly a 100% tax so that would be 2/120m. They did this because of the tax penalties. So at 2/120 I’d take the 6 for 108.
Rather pay 2 60 instead of 5 90! I would bet on him being at least good enough for a 5th starter for 10 million a year and that is fine with the chance he is better.
That tax money will add up too. They always can drop a player mid contract.
Real money 6/90 is the same as 2/60 with lux tax.
Exactly and either of those puts the padres paying a tax of at least 92%. So that’s more like 2/120 or 3/180
Kershaw used to hit 95+ with regularity, but has been sitting around 92 the last few years. Still very good. Yu doesn’t depend on his fastball all that much, and still throws 95 avg at age 36. He knows how to pitch in lots of different approaches. Think he’ll be just fine
deGrom Texas Ranger
Kershaw has the lowest career ERA for any pitcher since 1961. That’s not a realistic conmparison. 10 straight seasons with a sub 3 ERA and 3 of 4 with a sub 2 ERA in his prime
Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of all time. Yu darvish has been inconsistent
The point is that velocity doesn’t determine effectiveness.
Fine, new example. Rich Hill is 42. Still gets paid. I think Darvish is better than Hill, but the Padres would probably be content with the last 5 years of Hill in this contract.
Wainwright is the same age that Darvish will be in the last year of this contract and he just signed for $18 million IIRC.
Idk about this one. Seems like to long of a commitment for him.
You Can Put It In The Books .
This won’t age well… teams really need to adjust to the post steroid era where a player be it position player or pitcher will not go on in their 40’s… don’t get me wrong I acknowledge players like Nolan and Randy and wonder boy Franco but that’s an outlier to the norm.
Not sure extending him through his age 41 season is smart. The $108 million is not a bad number. Neither is the $18 million AAV.
At least one more extension will happen during spring training that will lock up another player through his age 41 season.
We saw in the 2016 international free agent signings by the Padres that Preller is good at taking advantages of loopholes created by future rule changes. What does he know that we don’t? Why would he sign XB through age 40, Darvish through 41, and soon Machado through 40 or 41?
Preller doesn’t know any secrets, he’s just making bad decisions.
How is this a bad decision? It lowers the Padres CBT hit. It is for far less than market value AAV. Over 5 seasons its what you would have expected Darvish to get for 3. It’s substantially less money than top free agents got this offseason.
The last deal he signed with the Cubs was same. Low AAV over more years. This is a better deal than giving 3/90 with the tax hit. Team probably only planning on getting 4 more years from him.
I mean Taijuan Walker got that same AAV on a 4 year deal this offseason and Yu is significantly better than him. I get that there’s 2 extra years here and it goes into Yu’s age 41 season so there is risk of decline, but this isn’t a ludicrous amount of money for a frontline starter.
Scherzer and Verlander are better than Yu, but a 40 year old Verlander got 2/86 and last year a 37 year old Scherzer got 3/130 with an opt out. If he’s pitching well, I think this deal represents a significant discount on what top of the rotation starters can get even in their late thirties.
Verlander is 3x better then darvish though, even then it wasn’t the smartest move imo. But the Mets have him short term and they don’t have the same money tied up then the Padres do.
He’s really not 3x better than Darvish though. Verlander was worth 6.1 fWAR last year and Yu was worth 4.2 fWAR.
We’re basically talking about the difference between a legit ace #1 pitcher like Verlander and more of a #2 type guy like Darvish. The gap isn’t as big as you’re making it out to be.
That’s recency bias. Darvis had a very good 2020 and 2022 but was quite mediocre 2018,2019, and 2021. Scherzer has been a Elite for the last decade.
2/86.6 or 5/90.
@cjml exactly, thank you, Scherzer and Verlander have been elite every single year. Darvish has been great at times but inconsistent.
See this is why I hate WAR. You can’t simply look at totals and say “this player is XX much better.” Because it’s never that linear.
An upgrade from Darvish to a Verlander or Scherzer is much greater than simply the number added. The entire rotation gets a plus. The bullpen gets that much more rest over the entirety of the year. Plus the added morale boost which by all definitions is unquantifiable.
Add the fact that top-level talent is much more in demand, not to mention the ticket sales that eventually lead to more payroll for better ability of augmenting the roster going forward, it’s very possible that Scherzer and/or Verlander is 2-3x as valuable as Darvish.
Not saying WAR is bad. It is good in the right circumstances, such as seeing overall play on a quantity-level basis. Just don’t use it as a be-all end-all stat. Something I see way too often in these arguments.
Darvish has pitched more innings than either Verlander or Scherzer over the last 3 seasons. He had higher IP per start than Scherzer. Verlander had a slightly higher IP per start but only had 29 starts.
Most of your points don’t hold up to looking at the stats.
For the price of 1 Scherzer AAV your team could have Darvish and Carlos Rodon. Which team wins more games?
Yet Verlander’s xERA last year was 2.66, Darvish’s was 3.49. Verlander was simply much better on a per-rate basis and will continue to be going forward. Innings isn’t the only stat.
If Cohen had the opportunity to sign Darvish, he would have overpaid for him as well. Does not make the current contract or situation any more tenable.
I will give you credit for that comparison. Of course I would rather have both pitchers in that scenario. Does that make Scherzer’s contract make sense any less for the Mets? Obviously not. They are in different situations in different markets. Opportunity cost was huge in both the Scherzer and Verlander signings and are always a factor.
Regardless, the point that WAR by itself does not linearly quantify the value of a pitcher does not change.
I just showed that your basic premise was wrong and that is the best you can come up with? Just stop while you are behind.
No, you cornered one detail of an overall point and proved it wrong.
Clearly I’ve triggered you quite badly. That being said, if you’re going to debate, do it properly rather than resorting to ad hominems immediately.
4.2 fWAR places Darvish 13th. Verlander was #3 on that list.
Interestingly enough Scherzer does not appear on that list even though he had enough WAR to place 12th. He didn’t have a qualifying number of IP.
Anyone in the top 30 is a #1 starter by virtue of being a top 30 starter in a league with 30 teams. Several teams including the Padres had 2 starters in that top 30 as measured by WAR.
Over the last 3 seasons Darvish is 8th on that list, while neither Verlander nor Scherzer are because they didn’t pitch enough innings because of injuries. Scherzer would have ranked 5th in fWAR if he had pitched more innings, just behind Kevin Gaussman.
I guess I’ll just re-state what I’ve said 5 times already.
A player’s current value is not what it has been the past three years. It is what it is right now.
Therefore, one should gauge a pitcher’s value by what it has done most recently. It is not perfect, though accurate enough indicator to evaluate properly.
Over the past year, Darvish is 25th or so in most park-adjusted metrics. Take it down a few notches and he’s a high #2.
I don’t know what your obsession is with ranking pitchers in this way is. I will tell you, Darvish is who he is and will perform as such during the year.
Feel free to swap between accounts, too. It’ s very interesting to observe.
The Human Toilet
I mean he is showing no signs of slowing down and reasonable 5/90, but I remember his current contract being upside down in his first year with the Cubs and now here we are.
Glad he was able to turn it around and get paid again
I mean..with his arsenal, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s still moderately effective by that point..but assuming his fastball drops by a few ticks, could easily be paying 18m a year for a number 5 starter in a couple years. Not brutal..but certainly not ideal..
at the rate contracts AAV are jumping, $18M for a starter in 2025 will probably get you a #3 guy.
So if Yu turns into a #3 or 4 during the final 2-3 years, I’m ok with it
Hard to get a #3 for 18 million now. I seen guys I consider more of a #4 around that.
Peter Seidler, consistently proving the other owners are lying.
We’ll see how long he’s willing to lose money. The payroll is very near revenue now. There’s a lot more expense to running a team than player payroll. I’m curious as to how he thinks he can grow the brand and increase revenue. He’s in a small market hemmed in by Mexico to the south and the Dodgers to the north.
Well they had almost 50,000 people show up for Fan Fest a few days ago. I’d say it’s working…..
The Fire Marshall said it was closer to 150,000… but they tried to limit only 50K inside the stadium at once. It was absolutely NUTS downtown!!!
The revenue generated at the fan fest should make signing Soto to a $500 million contract a cinch.
@Cardsfan57- They have Soto under team control for two more seasons. So they can spend the $$$ elsewhere (and they will)
If you’re trying to get these numbers to make sense revenues vs expenses wise in San Diego, you won’t. They don’t make sense, the dude is clearly coming out of pocket to make this happen. I know it’s hard for fans (and other owners) to imagine but he is making money elsewhere in his life and using it to fund an MLB team that he is clearly losing his ass on. Enjoy the ride.
Teams make most of their revenue from their TV deals. Whatever the Padres generated at their Fanfest is probably only 1% of the whole pie.
I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed, but I think Cards was being facetious, Jimbo.
I’m not trying to be negative just realistic. Remember this started with a post attacking the other owners; not one praising Seidler. I do know this can only last so long. I get what Cohen is doing in New York. It’s possible for him to tap into a vastly larger market and grow his brand. He’s outspending the Yankees trying to lure all those except the die hard fans to his camp. It’s a big gamble but I at least see where he’s going. It’s not impossible for people to follow two teams, especially casual fans.
LOL at San Diego being a “small market”. The difference is the amount of money running around that place. When you talk about pushing the limits of pricing there is no comparison between San Diego and other “small markets”
IE he could double the price of season tickets tomorrow and noone would bat an eye. Especially given the product he is putting out there. Seriously who could complain about the price of a ticket or a Beer in San Diego right now?
What percentage of revenue do you think comes from attendance? TV is the lions share. They aren’t going to pay more per viewer no matter where the market is located.
@CardsFan57 you are wrong regarding revenues from TV and attendance. The Padres local deal pays them between $50m and $60m a year and they get a little over $60m a year from the national deal. So $120m annually is what they get from TV.
If we assume even a modest $50 per ticket price and around 42,000 fans a night we get $2.1m per game, over $170m a year. Not counting concessions and merch. The idea that TV money is all that matters just isn’t true for all teams.
35% on average. Padres have sold out the entire season already so that may not apply. TV is more than 50% for every team.
Another source of revenue that has to be taken into account is post season money. Maury Brown said the Padres earned $60 million for their run to the NLCS. The Braves made an extra $150 million for their playoff run through a WS win.
Going deep in the playoffs is a valuable source of income for these teams.
The national TV deals total $2.15 billion. That’s $71.6 million per team.
Then you add the money from 55 million subscribers to MLB.tv and MLB Extra Innings. There are 30k bars, restaurants, and casinos that subscribe to MLB Extra Innings. Small bars like the one my brother owns pay $360 to $480 per month and a big sports bar and any casino is paying $1k a month or more. Maury Brown said this revenue stream alone is over $2 billion.
Them you add local TV money. For the Padres their deal averaged $60 million starting at $45 million and going up from there. On top of that the Padres own part of the station that broadcast their games. That was 20 or 25% when they started IIRC and they got a bump up in ownership percentage when it became Ballys. I haven’t seen anything that said how much that bump was.
For the Padres that is $200 million or more for TV before they sell a ticket. And they sold a huge number of tickets.
Then you add revenue sharing, sponsorships, in park advertising, park naming rights, and you are close to $300 million.
Then add the money for 3-3.5 million tickets and associated revenue. Padres are guaranteed to surpass 3 million just on season tickets sold so that is $150 million from tickets, concessions, and other game day revenue.
Last but not least is the money they make in the playoffs.
Padres haven’t sold out the entire season yet, just all the season tickets. The single game tickets were still on sale as of earlier today. They very well could be sold out completely by opening day, but they aren’t yet.
Padres revenue was estimated at over $330 million last season not including post season revenue. Not sure what they made in the post season, but they had 4 home games and post season game income was about $15 million per game including local TV revenue.
You have to consider that the Padres are the only professional game in town. There is no NFL, NBA, or NHL. All the local corporate sponsorship dollars go to them.
The Padres are not “hemmed in” by Mexico. They are taking full advantage of the additional 2.5 million in population in Mexico from Tijuana to Mexicali. They have partnership agreements with several Mexican teams including in Tijuana and Mexico City. There is a reason that the Padres have been involved in nearly all the MLB games played in Mexico. They are extremely popular there.
Plus another 10m from Motorola patch. Every team also got 30m from the tech rights they sold.
The other thing the padres have is a 1b deal with a hedge fund.
They have plenty of money and are going to do all they can to extend manny and Soto. Plus it’s well known they will be a big player for Ohtani. Sooner or later people realize this isn’t your the old cheap padres. They have a system that tells them if you get stars and win they that creates revenue.
Old timer 78
Well thought. THE FRIARS FRONT OFFICE and OWNER know exactly what they are doing. 70% of the comments are from people who don’t know what they are talking about.
When it comes to almost any comments section anywhere, the % that you used is probably far too low…
Their local TV deal could be re-worked soon if Bally Sports folds.. Its a very old deal and new deal is going to be $100mil plus per.. Naming rights to Petco (another deal signed before 2000 (1999) expires in a yr. That’s going to be close to $100mil per.. Padres are going to be close to a $500 to $600 mil per team in Gross revenue . Absolutely sustainable at or near $300 mil CBT
Pads, reading your post makes me worried about our Julio Urias. Julio is a free agent after this season and Scott Boras is his agent so there will be no extension.
If what you say is true about Mexico’s interest in the Padres, then you guys would be better off grabbing him instead of Shohei. Do you think Padres are going after Julio too?
Knowing there is this worry from LA fans, the Padres will of course pretend to go after Urias, just to drive the cost up for other rival teams. But there’s some bad blood between Pads and Julio, and no amount of Mexican love can heal that.
The new stadium was not opened until 2004 and the Petco naming rights deal was 22 years and $60 million.
The 20-year Fox Sports (and now Bally Sports) TV deal runs through the 2031 season and with the $200 million signing bonus that Moores pocketed it was worth $1.2 billion and gave the Padres a 20% ownership in the station.
It was reported in the SDUT that the Padres gained ownership percentage when Bally Sports bought the station from Fox due to a clause in the original agreement, but I can find nothing that indicates exactly how much that increase was. 5%? 10%?
With playoff revenue, increased sponsorship money from being the only pro team in town, and the additional revenue they receive from being part owners of the station, I would think that total revenue of $400 million is not out of the question.
At $400 million in revenue and knowing that the two teams that are owned by a publicly traded company spent around $130-134 million on all non-baseball operations expenses, spending $250 million on CBT payroll is sustainable.
Ohtani brings in an additional $20-30 million in revenue from Japan. Ohtani is worth far more in dollars.
It sounds like they can afford to extend Soto and Manny too. I had no idea that the Padre revenue stream is so deep. Not Guggenheim deep but deep enough.
Dumb. You never go go year-by-year or short term when he pitcher hits his mid 30s. Even Verlander deal with the Astros only worked out because they won a WS last year after he missed 2 seasons.
*only, not never
Fred, let me get this right. You are saying the Padres should have signed Darvish to the 3/90 deal that the market was saying he would get with 92% tax on top of that instead of 6/108 with a 45% tax?
Glad you are not my CPA.
Acceptable deal for both sides.
A few posters say the deal is “too long” for the team.
Just think of the deal as retaining 18 million for 2023, followed by three years at 25 million per year, followed by two years at 7.5 million per year, and it seems just right for both sides.
The Human Toilet
If Darvish continues to roll like he did in 2022, then he would of gotten $100+ million in the open market and some team likely would of done it at shorter term higher AAV.
Now the Padres get to get him and at a much lower AAV, if Darvish stays healthy he will be worth it, but that is a big IF with him sometimes but the risk you have to take as an owner.
rf, is it true that there is an informal agreement to limit one former NPB player per MLB team? They are kind of rare overall and I can’t recall if 2 were ever on the same team in recent years. If this is true, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are out of the running for Otani.
I love Yu. I don’t love the years here though.
You Can Put It In The Books .
“No soup for, Yu!”
Lmaaaooooo Preller is the worst of all tiiiiiiime holy shhhhhhh
He’s had the surgery, and that covered all of his Japan and heavy Texas years. With only about a 1,000 innings in the last 7 years, it sure looks like a cost effective deal. A nice investment by San Diego. Cheap considering what the market is headed to.
He is a workhorse, I like this deal.
People actually think Darvish is getting 6 years because they expect production and not a lower AAV haha
For now, at least they now have Darvish and Musgrove as top of the rotation pitchers assured for the 2024 season. Curious to find out if there are any opt-outs or no-trade clauses as perhaps they can trade Yu to bring in Ohtani the next year if there is indeed an informal agreement of no more than one Japanese player per team.
I’m guessing the Padres’ thinking is that they really only need Yu to be their Ace over the next couple seasons to consider the contract a success, moreso, if there is a World Series appearance or even championship in that time.
If he chooses to retire before the contract ends, then all good. They only need him to be “effective” in the latter half of the contract, as he may need to start relying more upon his variety of pitches and spins to get outs. Even then, he can still be a tremendous veteran mentor/coach for any upcoming and incoming pitchers.
This is the market. I get the concern over paying players in their age 40 seasons. But giving a 3 year deal at an $18m AAV isn’t an option. The option was not having Darvish after the 2023 season. As a Giants fan, Darvish as a Padre in 2024 appears to make the Padres more formidable. The Giants have Webb only (pitchers and position players) to build on going forward. That sounds like an expensive and difficult path to compete.
Not bad…I dig Yu.
It really comes down to the 18M AAV which at the current and future SP market will most likely look good, even with some regression.
deGrom Texas Ranger
Noooo! I wanted this guy in the future.
You already had him in the past
deGrom Texas Ranger
That’s why I wanted him back. I’d say the same about Gallo: he was our past and could have been our future, too.
Gallo does surprise me. With the Rangers needing Outfielders and the fact that he’s only had success in Texas seemed like a good fit. Either the Rangers did not make an offer or Joey jumped at the Twins offer because it was guaranteed
The bottom line here is that for $18 mil he doesn’t have to be an Ace the last 2-3 years of this deal to be worth it.Just imagine what the best SP’s will be making annually in 4-5 years.Plus Yu has 11 pitches…he could cut the more strenuous pitches out of his arsenal in a few years and still compete.Hell at $18 mil in 4-5 years he could still be valuable out of the bullpen if necessary…not ideal but still possible.This is a good deal…Esp if SD gets a WS championship in the next few seasons.
If Darvish has another good season this year and went to free agency and some team gave him 4/$100 everyone would have thought that was a great deal….lol
This is basically the same but the yearly cost is most important when tip toeing the Luxury Tax line.
Over the last 3 seasons Darvish has a 3.34 ERA (#14 overall), 3.35 FIP (#11), 8.6 bWAR (9th) and 10.1 fWAR(7th), and 437 IP ( #7). His AAV would have been much more than $25 million.
With the top of the market over $40 million AAV, no one would have batted an eye if this extension for Darvish was 3/90. But 5/90? OH NO he will be washed up at 40 and 41 years old.
Exactly, he is also not showing any signs of slowing down. While 6 years is long and that’s all people can see they aren’t realizing what he would have gotten as a free agent.
Plus the big difference for the padres is paying less in tax dollars to keep darvish. They aren’t going to be under the tax anytime soon. So keeping Aav’s down saves them millions.
Considering what he could have gotten in free agency if he has a repeat of last season this is not a bad deal
deGrom Texas Ranger
Are they calling it a 6 year deal so he can set a record for six-year deals with 3? 6/60, 6/116, and “6”/108
The only deals that don;t come with “extra years” these days are for guys literally noone wants. If there is any market at all for a guys services you can bet it will take an extra year or two tacked on to make it happen. That’s just the way it is. Some organizations, like the Padres and Phillies seem to be fine with it in order to stretch out the AAV profile.
Padres hopefully included a club option at some point
deGrom Texas Ranger
So, he gets about as much over 5 years as Scherzer and Verlander got over 2 and people whine because of the years? Ridiculous! Imagine the early-year surplus cancels out the later years’ liability. Besides, MLB contract inflation is like 10% a year. Discount those cash flows at a rate of 10% (I’m just guessing here what it is).
You Can Put It In The Books .
How’s the semester going?
deGrom Texas Ranger
I’m a darvish fan, but I don’t think this was a smart move for the padres. The SP market is very strong next year and the year after. Nobody was going to give darvish 5 years at his age. They probably could’ve waited and allocated the money to someone younger and just as god or better, or resigned him for less.
No but he could have easily gotten 3/$90 and that’s +$12mil AAV…which hurts SD chances of adding or extending others cause of CBT..at $18 per it actually saves SD $4mil in 2023.. and like I said prob around $12 mil vs actual $$ next offseason..
I hope that Peter Seidler is not running a Ponzi scheme. He’s spending money faster than it can be printed…
This is also helpful for the Padres presence in Japan. Yu is well-loved. Shohei Otani respects him as well.
TV deal is ancient and going to be a huge $$ windfall.. Petco naming rights are up in a season or 2 and will get a 10x fold amount on those (current deal was signed like 25 yrs ago).. Team already sold out season tickets and will avg 40k per game at home and maybe the largest crowds of any team on the road with the Fearsome 4 some in the lineup.. Corp advertisement and sponsorships and Siedler amd Pads could be looking at a sea of revenue north of $750mil before expenses…just something to consider here
deGrom Texas Ranger
The front-loaded nature of the deal negates some of the net present value concerns.
He’s 36, a six year extension? Seems odd
It’s technically a five year extension added to 2023 which he was already signed for
You know there is a lot of hate thrown at Preller and yes, he’s made some mistakes. But the guy is aggressive and has taken a small market, non-relevant team, signed some of the biggest names in the game, brought in a big time manager and WOW, NLCS!
It’s been a process and will continue to be. Yea, you want to lock up your best guys and see them go the long haul with you. Now, it’s about locking up Manny and Soto!
Yup. It wasn’t long ago when you could count on the only free agents the Padres were gonna sign were guys like Orlando Hudson, etc. Nice to see an owner an GM light that fire for SD.
I remember when he was traded from the Cubs in the Zach Davies swap, many people on here were saying the Cubs won the trade. Obviously they didn’t and Zach Davies is a scrub.
I think the Cubs just wanted to get out from under the contract. Anything the prospects do in Chicago is just the cherry on top. Not sure why they wanted Davies.
The prospects in that deal aren’t looking cherry-like so far.
Half the folks thought SD won the deal. IMO, both sides won, because both sides got what they wanted.
Darvish is real good, but only 24-19, with a 105 ERA+ and a bWAR of 5.8 over two years. For the Cubs, that would have been relatively worthless. SD needed a solid #2 more than some replenishable 18 y.o. prospects.
The Cubs needed prospects more than a #2.
I think folks need to use to the idea that both sides can get what they want without winning or losing a trade.
Oh God Joe. Citing his 24-19? Who the hell cares about pitcher wins in 2023?
Joe + Yu for $38 vs Max for $43
Give me Joe + Yu now and forever and I got $5 to fk around…
Max pretty washed..Pads hit him like a pinata
deGrom Texas Ranger
I think Scherzer amd Verlander served in the same platoon during the American Revolution. It seems they have both found “the fountain of youth.”
242 career starts 2 complete games, one shutout and. 3.5 ERA. Watching him, looks like he has a great arsenal, but he’s been inconsistent. The Padres could easily get 5 2021’s….that would be bad.
Yu Yusually don’t see these types of deals
Also,Adam Wainwright is 41 years old “right now” and just signed a deal for $18 mil.Other than injury(which is true for ANY player) I don’t see how Yu won’t be as effective as Wainwright at age 41.Plus by then $18 mil will be #4 SP money.
I can’t wait for the Padres fire sale in a few years. They are going to be giving away talent for 10 cents on the dollar.
Hmmm…Dodger fans always throwing shade!
If Padres win even one WS in next 2 years, a ‘10 cent’ fire sale is fine with me. It’s been over 50 years, so I appreciate the team going for it.
Shohei’s gonna come to SD now that Yu is locked up.
Next off-season is going to be super interesting. If he doesn’t have a down year or get hurt the bidding is going to be ridiculous. Even teams that have no business bidding on him will probably get into the fray.
Now get Clevinger next
Fun fact. Yu Darvish was the fastest in Major League history to get to 1500 strike outs!
deGrom Texas Ranger
I think deGrom either came close or broke that record. Maybe, it was a starts recrod instead of innings. I think he averages more innings per start.
Old timer 78
Yu always in GREAT SHAPE. This might get him in HOF Range. Great Sign.
He has work to do on that one. If he keeps being good then I wouldn’t count it our though.
I look forward to him carving up the NL West this year. Probably end up throwing a few complete game no-hitters, given the lack of talent in the division.
There’s only 1 bad team in the NL West and it’s the Rockies.D Backs are going to be good and getting better the next few seasons.The dodgers are still the dodgers and will be spending big time next off season……same as the Giants.
Besides,with the balanced schedule going forward they don’t play their own divisional teams 19 times anymore.
Yu, it’s a spectacular pitcher, one of the best in baseball
This guy was already steadily declining in MLB 22 the show….
Well then, we better take notice. Because video game performance definitely matters when it comes to a players overall quality, lol.
Yu in 2022
Innings: Most since 2013
ERA: Best in full season since 2016
ERA+: Best in full season since 2016
FIP: Best in full season since 2016
WHIP: Best EVER
BB/9: Best EVER in full season
H/9: Best EVER
HR/9: Best in full season since 2013
Nice hometown discount to be honest
deGrom Texas Ranger
I agree except for the hometown part. He started his MLB career in Texas. Before that, he wasn’t even in the US, let alone San Diego. He has only spent 2 years with the Padres.
Risky business given his age and injuries, though when healthy, he’s up there with the best.
It’s a basic Padres move.
There isn’t a bigger critic of Preller than me, but I’ve got to give him credit for this deal. Yu is a good gamble to be good for at least 2 years, and probably 3. If he falls off a cliff after 3 years the rest is just the cost of doing business. It’s a good deal for both team and player.
Plus, they REALLY needed to lock up some security in that SP rotation beyond 24. So timing was also important. I do think Darvish is a good investment next few years, he’s incredibly motivated and takes care of himself mentally/physically. He’ll be great until his kids reach teen years, that will drag him down.
I meant after 23
Happy for Yu! Hated this trade more than the one for Quintana.
I’m sorry but the Padres are just complete idiots!!!
Will you call them idiots if they win a couple rings over the next few years?
Are they idiots because they are taking a long term shot on a guy who has continually performed at a high level for them?
Or, are they idiots because you wouldn’t as a General Manager of your MLB Team make this move? Based on talent, ability, skill or age at the end of his contract?
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Who are all these ANTI-AMERICANS who keep say millions of dollars is.nothing?
Are you guys flipping stupid.or something?????
That’s only shooting ourselves in the foot!
You should.be preying these IDIOT IVY LEAGUERS AND BILLIONAIRES QUIT DEVALUATING YOUR MONEY BY OVER PAYING FOR STUPID STUFF!!!!
WHAT ARE YOU PEOPLE THINKING!!!
WAKE THE F UP! t
THESE GUYS ARE eFFECTING THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.
Ohtani? Half a billion?????? DO NOT ALLOW THAT!
You Can Put It In The Books .
Another Infowars devotee, perhaps?
deGrom Texas Ranger
How are Ivy Leagues worse than other colleges? The same kind of thinking that is promoted at random colleges is promoted at Ivy League colleges. They are all the same. It’s just many people have spending issues and lack discipline, so they just spend whatever they want with other people’s money and owners are too concerned what a few fans will say on the internet to actually run a business.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
I don’t know but as an hourly employee, I am obligated to pull my hair out…..
You’re misunderstanding this contract. It’s just stretched out over 5 years in order to keep the AAV down for purposes of luxury tax penalties.
No one thinks Darvish will pitch until he’s 41. He’s already at 2,789 innings pitched for his career. He had TJ in 2015. He’s closing in on the expiry date of TJ, about eight years. Blood flow is inevitably reduced over time. From 2019-22 his ERA+ is respectable at 115, but hardly elite, and his ERA+ is just 105 for 2021-22, giving up 50 HR in 363 innings. This is a distinct overpay and I’m not at all sure why Preller did this. This is close to Castillo money. Darvish’s future is not that of Luis Castillo.
Darvish era+ last year was 121. His career era+ is 120. 18 and 21 are the two times he had a bad year. 21 he was an all-star before hurting his hip and was terrible the second half. He adjusted his delivery to take pressure off his hip in 22 and was back to form. Trying to make darvish sound like he is an avg pitcher is crazy.
Castillo is by many considered highly under paid and would have gotten way more on the open market.
To everyone who thinks this is a bad move for the Padres…
They have Machado, Soto and Tatis all together for two seasons and after this season the rotation was going to be Musgrove and 4 unproven guys while they try to compete with the Dodgers for the division. Therefore the alternatives were to field a team that needs to score 8 runs a game to win or go out and spend even more money than this contract to buy starters on the open market next winter. This was a necessary move and in my opinion betting on Darvish even at his advanced age is a better gamble than betting on Snell’s inconsistencies.
They are spending on avg 3m less the next 6 seasons then he was paid the last 6 seasons. Yes you can say the years you are buying make that still seem high. You also have to consider how much the cost of good starting pitching has gone up especially this year.
When I first saw the headline I thought it was dumb. Looking at the contract and his stats, I actually really liked the deal.
That’s a ridiculous amount of years for an older pitcher
That’s a ridiculous amount of pitcher for older years
I’ll take $90m to live in San Diego
I fought in stuff
@metslvt-The simplest thought often contains the deepest wisdom. Nicely done. (Applied to comment on big money and a life in San Diego)
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Congrats to Mr. Seidler and AJ! A stellar investment and wise management of the CBT. This locked down Friar relevance regardless of what all you haters and naysayers think. Mr Montfort put that in your pipe and smoke it
On the surface this is an overpay but since they decided to keep him, maybe not. I think it was reaearch from Matt Swartz that I first read about the difference in projection between players that stay with a team and those who teams choose to let go or trade. I think the theory was that the players current team has more information bout the player and their health and other aspects of their performance than anyone else. That said I wouldn’t count on him even being a serviceable pitcher by the end of this because his age, but you have plenty of age defying pitchers out there so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s still effective at 40 or so. He’s a good pitcher now and still has good stuff so he seems like he has a higher likelihood than most of defying traditional aging curves. Since its frontloaded and not super expensive by today’s standards there’s not a huge risk of this being an albatross.
Good extension. Darvish sold low in my opinion. Even if he tanks after 2 years the money isnt going to be that big of an issue. Wont be hard to move that contract in most cases.
I’d rather have an ownership that is willing to overpay to give their team the best chance possible to win, than an owner like Reinsdorf who has given the White Sox no chance at all despite having a good young core. The Padres might not win a title, or the NL west, but they have Xander, Soto, Machado, and Tatis Jr. They are going to be super fun to watch at least. Good teams cost money, at least the Padres are going to be very good. The NL is stacked with great teams… Mets, Dodgers, Padres, and even the Braves and Phillies are ok. In the AL it’s down to Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays pretty much. NL will be much more interesting, and the Padres certainly will be a team to watch.
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“The Padres clearly had a desire to extend Darvish, and likely agreed upon the requisite dollars before determining the length of the contract and, thereby, the extent to which they could tamp down their tax bill.”
Come on, how can you let a sentence like this through with all these non-content words? Also learn when NOT to use commas, please.
“The Padres clearly desired to extend Darvish, likely agreeing upon the requisite dollars before determining the contract’s length, and thereby how much they could tamp down their tax bill.”
Not to be nit-picking like some here, but I believe you should use a comma in your sentence above that starts with also. The correction: “Also, learn when NOT to use commas, please.”
Commas are not always necessary after “also” when it starts a sentence either.
A 6 year contract for a pitcher who is 36 years old? Ridiculous. They’ll regret this signing