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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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While other NL powers loaded up during the offseason, the Dodgers had a comparatively quiet winter that focused more on shorter-term contracts.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $53.3MM
Total spending: $53.3MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been dealt a pair of significant injury blows in Spring Training, between Tony Gonsolin’s ankle sprain and the much larger-scale problem of Gavin Lux’s season-ending ACL tear.  These injuries only added to a general sense of unease within the L.A. fanbase, considering that in the aftermath of another playoff disappointment, the Dodgers took a pretty conservative approach to reloading for the 2023 season.

To this end, Dodgers fans might take solace in the fact that there might still be a gap between their team and the rest of the National League, considering that Los Angeles won 111 games last season.  The team’s apparent (and now abandoned) plan to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset its penalty status isn’t exactly a new strategy for the Dodgers, considering they didn’t pay any luxury tax in any of the 2018-20 seasons.  Plus, the standard winter plan for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been to take things relatively slow in the offseason apart from perhaps one major addition, i.e. signing Freddie Freeman in 2021-22, signing Trevor Bauer in 2020-21, or trading for Mookie Betts in 2019-20.

This offseason simply lacked that one headline-grabbing move, though it isn’t as if Los Angeles didn’t make some explorations.  The club reportedly had some level of interest in such marquee free agents as Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, and even Aaron Judge, as well as other notable free agent and trade targets like Andrew McCutchen, Seth Lugo, the Brewers’ Willy Adames, and Kolten Wong (who ended up dealt from the Brewers to the Mariners).

Of course, the Dodgers’ financial strength and farm system depth can allow them to at least consider pretty much any player in baseball, and it could be that some of those pursuits were simple due diligence.  The end result of the Dodgers’ winter machinations was a series of short-term signings, as L.A. didn’t give any free agent beyond one guaranteed year.  Shortstop Miguel Rojas was signed to a contract extension soon after being acquired from the Marlins, but even that deal is only guaranteed through the 2024 season.

Rojas joins Betts, Freeman, Gonsolin, Austin Barnes, and Chris Taylor as the only Dodgers officially under contract for the 2024 season, and Betts, Freeman and Taylor are the only players on the books for 2025 and beyond.  As such, Los Angeles could possibly look to reset its luxury tax status next winter, though it’ll be a bit trickier for Friedman since he’ll have to navigate a plethora of club option decisions, as well as deciding whether or not to try and re-sign any of this year’s free agent additions, plus Julio Urias’ impending entry into free agency.

Bauer’s situation was undoubtedly a major factor in the Dodgers’ approach to the 2022-23 offseason.  The league issued Bauer a 324-game suspension last April under the MLB/MLBPA joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, and after Bauer appealed the decision, an neutral arbitrator reduced the suspension to 194 games.  This covered the time Bauer had already missed, and thus he was reinstated from suspension and his remaining $22.5MM in salary was returned to the Dodgers’ payroll.  (The Dodgers released Bauer within a few weeks of the arbitrator’s ruling, but naturally the team is still obligated to pay the money owed.)  Since the club’s estimated luxury tax number is roughly $245.1MM, Los Angeles would have been under the $233MM tax threshold with room to spare without Bauer’s salary on the books.

With this financial outlook in mind, Kershaw and Jimmy Nelson were the only members of the Dodgers’ lengthy free agent list to return to Chavez Ravine, as the team saw Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle all head elsewhere on multi-year contracts.  The Dodgers also added to their list of free agents with some notable non-tenders and declined club options, most notably Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner.

Los Angeles’ focus on filling those roster holes was split into two fronts.  Firstly, the Dodgers are eager to see what they have in a wide array of big league-ready young talent.  Miguel Vargas is slated to be the club’s regular second baseman, as the former top prospect has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level.  James Outman figures to be part of the outfield picture at some point this season, if perhaps not on the Opening Day roster.  Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are competing to see who earns a rotation spot in Gonsolin’s absence, and pitching prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are also on the verge of debuting in the majors.  Other top-100 prospects like Michael Busch and Andy Pages could also be in the big leagues before 2023 is over, and the Dodgers also picked up an interesting young player from outside the organization in utilityman Yonny Hernandez.

Many teams would be excited to have just one or two of those prospects ready to step up, so the Dodgers’ deep minor league pipeline is something of an embarrassment of riches for a big-market club that is also willing to spend.  Rather than put too much pressure on the youngsters, Los Angeles augmented the roster with some veteran names that might prove a more immediate benefit in 2023.

The Dodgers seemingly kept up hope that they could re-sign Justin Turner for much of the winter, but ultimately pivoted to another experienced former All-Star in J.D. Martinez.  As pretty much a DH-only player at this point in his career, Martinez’s lack of versatility is a bit of a departure from the Dodgers’ usual model of player acquisition, yet the team is hopeful that Martinez can get fully on track after his power numbers dipped with the Red Sox last season.  Even with a lack of slugging, Martinez still provided Boston with above-average (119 wRC+) production while hitting .274/.341/.448 over 596 plate appearances.

While Bellinger’s precipitous dropoff at the plate had already turned the former NL MVP into more of a platoon player, Los Angeles still needed to replace Bellinger’s strong defense and bolster the outfield depth on the whole.  In signing Peralta and Heyward, the Dodgers added a pair of left-handed hitters to balance out the lineup, with Peralta probably more of an offense-focused signing while Heyward brings the glovework.  Peralta projects as the regular left fielder against right-handed pitching, whereas Heyward’s playing time figures to hinge on how much the Dodgers are willing to play him in center field when Trayce Thompson is out of the lineup, or how much time Heyward might get in his customary right field spot if Betts is being used at second base.  The versatile Taylor will also get playing time in both the outfield and infield, at multiple positions.

Lux’s injury was a massive blow for many reasons, most obviously because an up-and-coming young player has had his career sidetracked for an entire year.  The Dodgers were confident enough in Lux’s ability to become the everyday shortstop that they didn’t make much of an effort to re-sign Trea Turner, nor did the team make too deep an incursion into the free agent shortstop market (apart from checking in on Bogaerts and Swanson).  With Rojas acquired from the Marlins to provide some more depth, Los Angeles was ready to give Lux a full opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big league shortstop.

With the worst-case scenario now visited upon Lux and the Dodgers, Rojas has been thrust into everyday duty.  It certainly isn’t an unfamiliar spot for Rojas given his years of experience in Miami, and if he continues to deliver his usual strong defense, the Dodgers might be okay with Rojas’ inconsistent bat considering the offense elsewhere in the regular lineup.  Taylor and Hernandez can also chip in at shortstop if needed, but this also stands out as a position where the Dodgers could add some outside help.  Spring Training is “not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman recently noted to media, but speculatively, L.A. might look to target shortstops at the trade deadline if Rojas and company can hold the fort until midseason.

On the pitching side, the rotation still looks strong even with Gonsolin is temporarily out of action.  Assuming Pepiot or Grove can capably fill in as the fifth starter, Los Angeles has Urias, Dustin May in his full-season return after Tommy John surgery, franchise icon Kershaw, and newcomer Noah Syndergaard in the top four.

Though it took close to a month for Kershaw to officially re-sign with the Dodgers after news broke of his agreement with the team, there wasn’t much mystery about his latest free agent venture, as Kershaw pretty quickly agreed to return for his 16th season in Los Angeles.  Because Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and has such a lengthy injury history, he can’t be considered an entirely sure thing, yet Kershaw has established a pretty clear “new normal” for himself at this stage in his career.  The southpaw has been limited to 22 starts in each of the last two seasons due to wear-and-tear types of injuries, yet when Kershaw has pitched, he has still looked like a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Anderson posted outstanding numbers in his one season in Los Angeles, but while Syndergaard isn’t being counted on to truly replace Anderson, Syndergaard would naturally love to follow that model of a career resurgence.  While the righty had a solid 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies in 2022, Syndergaard is hoping for more now that he is more fully removed from the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.  It remains to be seen if Syndergaard can get back to his past All-Star level from his days with the Mets, but such a scenario can’t be ruled out given the Dodgers’ past success at getting veteran pitchers on track.

L.A. mostly stood pat with its relief corps, at least in the short term.  The acquisitions of Alex Reyes and J.P. Feyereisen are longer-term upside plays for later in the 2023 season, since both pitchers are recovering from shoulder surgeries.  Nelson also missed all of 2022 due to TJ surgery, but the Dodgers were confident enough in his ability to return that Nelson was re-signed to a new guaranteed big league deal.  Los Angeles also gave Shelby Miller a one-year MLB deal in the hopes that Miller can finally establish himself as a relief pitcher, despite Miller’s lack of results or even playing time at the Major League level in recent years.

While these signings may look uninspiring, an argument can be made that the Dodgers didn’t need to do much beyond tinker with a bullpen that was one of the league’s best in 2022.  Seeing who (if anyone) steps into a full-time closer role will be an interesting story to watch as the season progresses, and the Dodgers figure to be somewhat fluid with their bullpen mix depending on whether any of the rotation prospects end up debuting as relievers, or if trade possibilities emerge.

That kind of wait-and-see element might extend to the roster as a whole, as the front office has shown in the past that it will be aggressive in making in-season moves, whether it’s lower-level pickups or trade deadline blockbusters.  It could be that Friedman will save the “one headline-grabbing move” for the deadline, when the Dodgers have a better idea of their needs, how the younger players are fitting in, and what veterans have or haven’t contributed.  There is some risk in this strategy, but these are the risks an 111-win team can afford to make considering that it seems quite unlikely that the Dodgers will fall out of the playoff race.

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