The Dodgers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson are in agreement on a major league deal, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Nelson’s deal contains a $1.2MM base salary and contains various incentives.
Ardaya breaks down the bonus structure (on Twitter). Nelson receives a “point” for every outing in which he either starts or records 10+ outs from the bullpen. He would lock in $250K each at 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20 points, followed by $500K apiece for 22, 24, 26, 28 and 30 points. Any shorter relief appearances counts as a “non-point” appearance. Nelson would receive $300K each at 35, 40, 45 and 50 such appearances, followed by $400K for hitting the 55 and 60 game marks.
Nelson, 34 in June, has had a stop-and-start career over the past decade. He debuted with the Brewers in 2013 and made 104 starts by the end of 2017. That last season seemed to be a tremendous breakout for him, as he posted a 3.49 ERA over 29 starts. Already a ground ball pitcher, he added strikeouts to his repertoire that season, punching out 27.3% of batters faced, a big jump from the 17.3% rate he had the year prior.
Unfortunately, that season was cut short when he suffered a torn labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff while sliding into second base in an early September game. He missed the rest of that season and also the entirety of the 2018 campaign. He returned to the mound in 2019 but struggled to a 6.95 ERA in 22 innings. The Dodgers signed him for 2020 but back surgery wiped out all of that campaign.
In 2021, he seemed to get back on track in a big way, pitching essentially as a full-time reliever. He made a single start though it was an “opener” situation where he went less than two innings, while the rest of his 27 appearances were out of the bullpen. He posted a miniscule 1.86 ERA in 29 innings of work, striking out an incredible 37.9% of batters faced. His 11.2% walk rate and 37% ground ball rate were a bit worse than average, but that didn’t stop him from posting excellent results.
But another setback came when he required Tommy John surgery in August of that year, putting an end to his stellar season. Though he was likely going to miss all of 2022 as well, the Dodgers re-signed him to a one-year deal plus a $1.1MM option for 2023 with performance bonuses. The Dodgers declined that option back in November but have worked out a new deal with a slightly higher guarantee. The details of the bonuses aren’t known.
Nelson will now be a huge wild card in Spring Training for the Dodgers. Over the past five years, he’s been mostly injured but was excellent for that brief period in 2021 when he was healthy. The club has shown that it’s not afraid to bank on injured players, with mixed results. Both Blake Treinen and Max Muncy were extended while dealing with injuries last year, with Muncy finishing the season strong while Treinen seems likely to miss all of the upcoming season.
The Dodgers will need to create room on their 40-man roster for Nelson whenever this deal is made official, and the same is true of their recent deals with David Peralta and Alex Reyes. However, that could be somewhat easy this week, as players are eligible to be moved to 60-day injured list once pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. This year is a little murky because some players have arrived early due to the World Baseball Classic, but the Dodgers’ official report date for pitchers and catchers is tomorrow. Treinen, Reyes, Walker Buehler and J.P. Feyereisen are all candidates to move to the 60-day IL and could do so this week, helping out with that roster crunch.
If Nelson is healthy and is anywhere close to his 2021 form, he’ll give the club a potent weapon for its bullpen, alongside arms like Daniel Hudson, Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and others.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Well he was fantastic in ‘21. Definitely worth the roll of the dice.
His ERA was 0.00 last year as well..
Technically I think it was undefined because you can’t divide by zero
He hasn’t contributed to the Dodgers in his 3 seasons in Dodger Blue & his 0.00 ERA in 2022 is because HE DIDN”T Appear in 1 game for the Dodgers
Cole Hamels must be next.
Why not Eric Gagne ?
Gagne was a dark moment in Dodgers history. This has mostly been a clean first-rate franchise and Gagne was a cheater.
Gagne was only part of the dark Dodger days. The Mitchell Report named Paul Lo Duca as “the conduit” between team members and Kurt Radomski (Mets clubbie) . While then Dodgers Gagne, Kevin Brown, Todd Hundley, Matt Herges, Chris Donnels and Adam Riggs were all named as well.
Haha wasn’t he legitimately trying to make a comeback just a couple years ago?
Game over Gagne!?! Bugs bunny change up? That would be great. Doubt he still has it. It was already 4 years ago that he looked his old self in limited action for team Canada
He hurt his shoulder diving into first base…lined one off the wall in left, pulled up rounding first and then hurt himself in s senseless dive. He was a very good starter at the time. Really a bad break. Sigh.
Questionable major league signing
Cheap bullpen depth move for the Dodgers
The Dodgers are obsessed with this guy…and also signing iniury-prone pitchers.
Over/under on 25 innings pitched in 2023?
I can imagine this deal was “agreed” to a long time ago. And the timing is such that the Dodgers did not have to use a 40-man slot on him during the off-season, but are finalizing the deal now when he can go right to the 60-day IL and not take a 40-man slot. Has that feel to it, doesn’t it?
You had a really good point going until that last part. No reason to believe Nelson is the one destined for the 60-day.
Why do people talk about Brusdar Grateral like he’s good? All Dodger fans know that he’s tough to watch.
He actually is pretty good.
so was Jonathan Broxton, who was “pretty good”, who also threw 300mph and sucked. Graterol lights up a radar gun but misses zero bats somehow.
Is that a fact?
Waiting for the “of the pitchers who average over 97mph with their fastball, Graterol sits in the top 50% of K/9 stat.
I think fans are more enamored by his stuff than actual performance, which has been fine. He’s still young though. But for a guy who throws 100 mph with a nasty moving slider, it’s hard to believe that in his MLB career he only has 7.2Ks per 9 innings. Still early though and hope that he stays healthy and puts it all together. He obviously has very high upside.
Pitchers who can throw 100 are pretty common these days, not much to get excited about anymore, but ones who can throw it for strikes, not so common. As you point out, at his age and with refinement he could become more than pretty good. Possibly a future closer, even.
I think that was it right there – the possibility of him closing. He was *supposed* to be groomed into that role in Minnesota remember? I can’t remember what it was specifically but he had some medical concerns there (which scuttled the Boston deal), blah blah, and we essentially got him for Connor Wong & Jeter Downs haha
That first year he was pitching for us (I cant remember if it was the same year we got him?) he was pitching really well. He had some sort of medical hiccup then too. Then he had that long covid recovery and never really got on track in ’22. So his potential still hasn’t been close to being reached. I feel like this is going to be the season where he either takes that step forward or cements himself into perpetual mediocrity. All in all though, we got good value out of that trade
Pitchers who can throw 100 are pretty commonly getting TJ surgery. With his age and some refinement, he could become a low cost rebound candidate in the future.
So there’s a known correlation between pitch speed and elbow trouble?
Boston had some concerns about his medicals but what they were I don’t believe were ever made public. He’d only made a handful of appearances for the Twins before he was traded at age 20. He might turn out to be another Pedro Baez, or something better. It’s a little early to say.
It’s actually not as common as you think. There is only one active MLB pitcher who averaged 100 mph on fastballs in 2022. Graterol was second at 99.8 mph. Technically Graterol throws 99.8 mph sinkers not fastballs. Read another article that said only 23 pitchers have ever thrown 100 mph or more in a MLB game.
But to your point pitchers in general throw a lot harder these days so hitters should be better equipped to hit velocity. Still for being the second hardest thrower in MLB you’d expect more Ks, especially if you have a sharp slider. Graterol needs to get more movement and better location on that fastball to get more Ks.
I wasn’t thinking averages. In order to average 100 MPH a pitcher would have to be able to reach 102-103 on some regular basis, and that is indeed rare. But the number who can hit 100 a few times in a game? Not so rare anymore. I suspect way more than 23 have done it in the history of the game. Imagine that many of current pitchers have. But either way, in this case, close does count and reminds me of the old story from World War I when it was pondered whether it felt different to be hit by a 305 or 410mm artillery shell.
Graterol’s SO rate is currently around league average and his BB rate is better than average. Not a bad platform to build on as a young pitcher. I’m definitely not completely sold on him, but he’s one to watch.
Welcome back, and no more sliding Jimmy.
I don’t really get why they would decline the option with a $1.1M guarantee in the fall and then sign him in February with for a higher $1.2M guarantee unless it’s about the roster spot during the offseason.
Nelson is theoretically healthy though now based on when he was hurt and the usual recovery time. It’s probably not about moving Nelson to the 60 day but more about being able create room for him now that they can move Treinen or Buehler etc… to the 60 day before adding Nelson to the 40 man.
You may have answered your own question. I think earlier in free agency process you want the roster flexibility. Optionality is key. Now that you can move players to the 60 DL and free agent targets have mostly gone off the board you can fill more gaps.
Looking forward to what new injuries Nelson can bring in 2023