The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- the Pirates promote Henry Davis (1:20)
- the scorching-hot Reds designate Wil Myers for assignment (7:35)
- Guardians promote Gavin Williams (10:40)
- White Sox want to sell rental pieces only (16:20)
- Dodgers need pitching (19:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Do you think the Cubs will deal Christopher Morel at the deadline? (22:45)
- What are the chances the Diamondbacks promote Jordan Lawlar later this season? (25:50)
- If Rangers make a blockbuster trade who would you think it would be? Obviously bullpen is a need but what is something blockbuster worthy? (29:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- Marcus Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats – listen here
- Elly De La Cruz, Alek Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for Jacob deGrom – listen here
- The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
Why do Baltimore or Cleveland have more top, top prospects than Detroit?
Detroit was supposedly experiencing an epic “rebuild”.
Isn’t there some anylitics somewhere?
Baltimore. Texas, Cleveland…..
Hire the guy from Baltimore? He won’t want to leave…..
The Tigers have been so tragic, I don’t expect to see anything more in my lifetime…..it’s kind of a bummer.
Thanks, Mr Illich.
It seems like Mike I. never wanted to throw in the towel, so instead of a proper rebuild, DET would sign ill-advised contracts and not have good talent evaluators in place. Now they’ve got a bunch of young players who were drafted high, but only time will tell if they pan out.
CLE has been all about analytics and whatnot for years, due to having a low payroll budget. Since they started getting the right talent evaluators in place 10-15 years ago, they’re churning out prospects like crazy, particularly pitchers and middle infielders. They’ve applied their evaluation methods to other teams’ prospects and made savvy trades of pending free agents who they never would’ve been able to extend or re-sign.
The Rays have been doing the same thing for years, hence their success. Other teams have caught on to CLE and TB’s methods (as well as OAK’s Moneyball back in the day); it’s kind of amazing how many GMs, PoBOs, and other front office personnel around MLB came from CLE or TB. But some orgs have been slow to jump on the bandwagon, i.e. DET, LAA, and until recently NYM.
I’m not a Tiger fan, but haven’t they just graduated 6 top-100 guys the last couple years? I’m guessing that’s why they don’t have more elite guys in the minors.
I’m guessing Jobe, Flores and Madden are just outside the top-100.
Graduating 80-100’s that are not panning out is not the same as graduating top 100’s in the general sense.
Torkelson was extremely overhyped based on his tools, and that is showing in a bad way.
The Central’s so bad, the Tigers can be contenders in half a decades. They have one of the richest owners in baseball, but they suffered some bad signings.
In fairness to the Tigers’ farm system.. their big guys have graduated from prospect status. Greene, Tork, Mize, Manning, Skubal. All were highly regarded prospects. That group isn’t contributing much of anything right now but all still young guys that could end up being solid major leaguers.
They really made a big run to try to win a WS before Mr. Illitch passed.. they mortgaged the future to make that run and they are still paying for it.
The Guardians trade players for top prospects, the Orioles and Tigers have tank for them. The Tigers top prospects (mostly pitchers) have been injured the past couple of years. Plus you just never know about prospects.
Too bad the Bucs can’t demote both Haines and Shelton
Why would the Cubs trade Morel, with decent results and 5.5 years of control left? Or is that just random conjecture?
Yeah, I think it was just a random question. Anything can happen, but I don’t really don’t think the Cubs are actively shopping him.
People tend to ask stupid questions and the people doing the chats continue to answer them.
That’s what bothers me. It’s the same questions being asked by the same guys Every day and getting the same answers every time. Because it’s easier to keep answering dumb people, Than it is to answer a tough one in an hour. It would require a thought. Don’t bother asking a thought provoking question in a daily chat room. You won’t get picked. It’s why I seldom bother anymore. Waste of time.
People tend to ask stupid questions
===========================
It’s one of the few things I liked about FAN. I’m not sure you want to get nasty with callers, but every once in a while, the response would be “that’s the question you stayed on hold for for 30 minutes!?!? Click!”
Especially since the cubs should be buyers not sellers.
It will be interesting if the Cubs can ride this recent hot streak. They should be about 5 games better than their record if Ross didn’t make some really bad decisions during their month and a half tumble. I think a good bat and a high leverage arm or two would win the Cubs the division but I’m not sure how they would fair in the playoffs.
I’d much rather the Cubs brought up their own arms and let them at least pitch in some high leverage games for the experience than traded them away for rentals. Ross has finally settled on a bullpen rotation for better or worse and there are still guys at Iowa who deserve a shot in case of injury. The Cubs need an RBI guy and at what cost to get him and what position? I mean Mancini is probably the one who be moved out because he was supposed to be that guy. I’d rather let this ride and see who they can count on next year. I think it would be fine just to make the playoffs with this team, Keep Stroman and Bellinger and try to re sign them to short term deals if possible. If not move on as best they can. I wouldn’t be a big player in FA next year if I were them. Heuer’s setback won’t be a death sentence but is disappointing to be sure.
I agree, I’d like to see Brown and Wicks brought up and pitch them out of the pen for a bit. Doesn’t mean their future would be in the bullpen, just their initial taste is out of the pen like most guys get anyway.
Depending on the contractor, Bellinger would not be a bad guy to keep around given his stellar work in center but also ability to play all outfield spots and first base. Let him play center until PCA can take over and then evaluate things, dudes a gold glove right fielder.
I think for a bat you have to look at either a third baseman, first baseman or DH, assuming you’re eventually going to put Belli back in center. You either have to look for a guy who’s playing below his average or a guy with multiple years of control. You could possibly go a “both” route and see if you can turn around Josh Bell. Would you consider changing Bell and Mancini?
As for nabbing a high leverage arm in trade, it doesn’t have to be a crazy closer and paying a premium, we’ve gotten relief guys in the past for minimum prospect cost. You deep dive and look for someone who would capitalize on our defense and gives batters a different look
I don’t know what Wicks has left to prove in AA. I’m wondering if they left him there to see if he could help them get the first half Playoff spot like they did with all the A ball guys. Now that they are eliminated from the first half see if they promote him Ballesteros has lost about half a spin since the season started and is looking a little bit more like the prospect he’s supposed to be. Hawkins admitted on the air that they are working with him on his ” Nutrition”. He’s only 19 but it looks like his weight is going to be an issue when he’s away from the team. Brown deserves a shot and Killian is looking good again. There’s a lot to like down there.
Pretty much agree with everything you guys have covered here. I’ll say this again, I never thought this was a year Hoyer expected to compete. This is a development evaluation year. Bringing Brown, Killian, Clark and whoever for a look in the bullpen would align with that strategy. Cubs have a ton of guys that will be rule 5 eligible after this year. Probably need to see who needs to be protected. Could also trade a few for a bullpen ready arm.
Agree on the bat as well, but like the arms, feel the Cubs have a handful of guys that still need a look before going outside. Not sure what else Jared Young needs to do to earn a promotion. Lefty bat at 1st. I think Mervis needs to get another look at some point… And not like last time. If you bring a guy up, he needs every day ABs, for a month, not 3 days a week. Every day, sink or swim.
May not be popular(or likely), but I’d bring Young up to play 1st, move Bellinger to center and platoon Tauchman with Suzuki. When Suzuki plays, Tauchman in CF, Bellinger 1st/DH.
Also, Perlaza is a switch hitter, rule 5 eligible, and has been crushing it all year. Shaky defensively, but crushes the ball. Slaughter may be on the list, but has cooled over that couple weeks. I like Mastrobuoni, but no idea why he is eating a spot in front of the guys mentioned. All a non factor if Madrigal is going to keep denting outfield walls, cause he’ll be the answer at 3rd anyway.
I guess my point is, a trade for a real difference maker is going to be expensive. And I really think this year is about evaluating what they have, regardless of whether they’re in the hunt… Then making an offseason plan as far as where they need to spend/trade
BTW Mike, are you a believer yet, or still think Hendricks is past his expiration date? I’d actually argue he still doesn’t quite have command of his change, and will get tougher than what you see now.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t impressed. My main concern would still be his durability. So let me ask you this, Are you impressed enough to pick up his 16 million dollar option for next year? Because if you do then it’s unlikely with Happ’s raise kicking in that you’ll see them try to re sign Bellinger and Stroman. A lot of decisions are going to have to be made and if you re sign those guys that means the only money coming off the books is Heyward’s and all of the other guys are going to cost you MORE than they did this year. Not the situation I was looking forward to.
The quick answer is yes, I pick up the $16M. My guess or hope, is the contract is reworked for fewer dollars with a couple additional years, maybe at $10-12M. Like Kershaw, I don’t think Hendricks wants to go anywhere.
I’m not sure where they are with Bellinger. If he is a free agent, my guess is, he won’t get the huge contract he was hoping for, so I believe the Cubs may try to extend him.
Stroman, not sure what he wants. Are they going to trade him at the deadline. I do know that if the Cubs want to take that next step, they need an elite arm. Is that Stroman, not sure.
I also believe the Cubs will go over the tax threshold. I don’t think they have interest in anyone asking for $300M, but if they need to sign Bellinger and Stroman and someone at 3rd or 1st, I don’t see the threshold being an issue.
If you wanted to play the best strategy for the future, the Cubs would trade Stroman and Hendricks at the deadline. There are a ton of quality arms hitting free agency. So instead of Stroman & Hendricks, you get prospects and then sign Nola and Giolito, or Sonny Gray and E. Rodriguez.
There are a lot of starts between now and the end of the season. Time will tell whether Hendricks is worth $16M, but if he’s giving me a quality start every time he takes the ball?…. yeah, he’s worth $16M. It’s not like his starts have been against KC or Oakland offenses.
Let me ask, why are you concerned about his durability? He’s a low effort guy. If it’s because he had an injury, what pitcher hasn’t had an injury, or 2?
I think you’re skeptical because you want 98, not 88. You know Stroman throws his sinker at 90/91, but generally works the rest of his mix at 84-87. Both pitchers came up at the same time. Somewhat similar approaches and similar careers. Although, Hendricks never had a 5.56 ERA and has been more consistent from year to year. Are you willing to pay Stroman $25M, but not willing to pay Hendricks $16M?
Also, I watched the Pittsburgh feed when Hendrick’s started. Their announcers talked about how hitting was about timing and how uncomfortable it is to face a guy like Hendricks. Every day the hitters are geared for 94 up. Every day they work on getting the bat head as quick as they can into the hitting zone. With Hendricks they have to throw out everything they’ve been taught, and slow the bat head down, and drag it through the hitting zone. Hitting is timing…. All about timing.
You keep saying my issue is with Velo. it’s not. I had a similar injury. All through my working years I was a truck driver. I was a baseball and football guy in HS and was a catcher so I got beat up a lot. I trashed my knee and arm no end. So all through the years the insurance company wouldn’t pay for surgery so I was in a constant state of rehab. It ached all the time, But my problem STARTED out just like Kyle, Partially torn Labrum. After 30 years I finally told the Doc I was gonna quit and find something else to do. So he operated and told me when I woke up there was a lot of hidden damage and it looked like a bomb went off in there and apologized. Anyway the guy who operated on me was actually a Cubs associate. Now Kyles got way more attention and care than I did being a everyday schmuck but I can tell you rehab don’t last. If the Cubs had operated and right now he’d be back and I’d say, Hey go ahead and pick it up and take a shot. I’m just waiting for the other shoe to fall like it did with me time and time again. He’s proven he can get guys out with 88. As for Bellinger and Stroman I’m sure Hoyer wants them back but why litter the farm system with pitching and say you have a plan if you don’t stick to it? We all know arbitration Jed isn’t going to bring up PCA until his clock runs out next year EVEN if he deserves it. So now you’re stuck in the middle with way more decisions to make than you should have to. Hoyer has screwed himself with Happ’s extension and the options he gave Bellinger and Stroman. It’s gonna be interesting to see how he gets himself out of it. Epstein and Hoyer both promised to build a farm system but are they gonna trade everyone away again like Theo did? Ricketts has been crickets so far, But I’d be interested to see what he thinks. OK, I’m off my soapbox for a bit. 98 doesn’t mean squat without command.
Hendricks has. 1.5 million buy out so his decision comes down to 14.5 million.
The Cubs per Cots are 78 million below the tax threshold for 2024 but that includes Stromans 21 million salary and his 23.6 aav. Picking up Gomes option would be a 5 million decision. Cody cost the Cubs 17.5 in luxury tax this year, he’s owed 20 million but if the Cubs want him back and he wants to come back, having both sides pick up the option and then working out an extension would put the Cubs at a 20 million tax hit.
Bring back Hendricks, Bellinger, Stroman and Gomes should, roughly, chip into that 78 million by 37.5-40 million, leaving us 38 million below the tax.
Luckily, the Cubs do not have to make the decisions on extensions and options yet. I like Hendricks. He he pitched two gems against the Pirates.
Stroman, IMO, shouldn’t command an AAV more than 25 million. That’s taking his monster year, thus far, and his overall track record into consideration.
Bellinger, for some reason I’m thinking he’s in the 20 million range but a lot to take in considering how he finishes the year. When he hit the IL, dude was putting up monster numbers for a center fielder. Bellingers versatility makes him a nice fit for Chicago but he’d have to be 100% on board with bouncing around once PCA comes up.
Cubs still have some time to figure things out, they are playing well now but still around 5-6 weeks to the trade deadline. They have the rest of the season to evaluate guys as well.
Agreed.
There is literally zero percent chance that the Cubs deal Morel, for exactly the reasons you mention.
Yeah, the Dodgers need pitching. What team doesn’t?
D-Backs, Rays, Houston, Miami, Cubs, Atl, S.D. , and so on.
Stroman to the Dodgers for Gavin Stone and Jacob Amaya. Who says no?
Dodgers are probably most likely to balk in that but I don’t think it’s crazy far off. Maybe one of those guys and a lottery ticket
Cubs say no. Gavin Stone has an ERA over 14 lmao. Hard pass.
Probably the commissioners office. I don’t think the Dodgers can trade Amaya since he’s with the Marlins.
I know you never have enough pitching, but Stone profiles as a back if a rotation pitcher. Cubs have a system full of those arms that are near MLB ready, so adding 1 more doesn’t really help unless it was a lefty
The bad Central Divisions were hidden for years when those teams played one another for 19 games a season. A few good teams could run up win totals against the crummy teams in their division, making them appear to be better than they were. But with the inter-division games cut back to 13 games and those teams having to play additional games against teams from the East and West, as of this morning we have one team (the Reds) of the 10 Central Division teams that’s playing over .500 ball.
What this points out is that both the population in America and the money is on the 2 coasts, and not in the middle of the country. So we have a “Follow The Money” situation, in which the revenues of the Central Division teams are by an large much lower – consequently their payrolls are as well.
Of the 30 MLB teams, the top ranked Central Division teams payrolls in 2023 have been the White Sox and Cubs at #12 and 13. Other teams:
16. Cardinals
17. Twins
19. Tigers
20. Brewers
23. Royals
25. Reds
26. Guardians
28. Pirates
The NFL and NBA don’t have this disparity, because they teams pretty much share all revenues.
This goes beyond the Central Division of MLB. Since 2017, only one team from a small market has been in the World Series – the Rays in the 2020 Covid-shortened season – 1 of the last 12 teams.
MLB needs to spend less time discussing expansion (with an already diluted league), and more time working on the disparities in their teams revenues and subsequently the caliber of teams that the smaller markets can afford to field. Which is a major reason why MLB’s post-season TV rankings are so low – as fans in smaller markets move on to watching their NFL and NBA teams where they know at least their FO’s are on equal footing with the competition in putting their teams together.
You intentionally selected 2017 (6 years) to fit your narrative. If you pick 10 years you’d pick up Cleveland & KC. A couple years more you pick up WS appearances by Detroit and St Louis.
If you select 2004-2016, 16 of the 26 teams that made the WS are from the middle of the country
Colorado, Texas and Houston aren’t East or West Coast.
Spotswood;
I intentionally picked 2017 because MLB has changed radically since then.
No AL or NL Central team is a big revenue recipient or big spender (see my breakdown), nor is a one a realistic WS contender.
Colorado, Texas and Houston are major markets – unlike Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Milwaukee., etc. And those teams are in the Western divisions, not the Central. They are a part of what was called The Sunbelt as they were building up starting in the 1970’s, while midwestern cities were losing population and businesses which were migrating to those areas.
“What this points out is that both the population in America and the money is on the 2 coasts, and not in the middle of the country.”
Again, Houston, Texas and Colorado are not on either coast. Pittsburgh would be considered East Coast.
How did baseball radically change from 2016 to 2017?
Looking back to ranking 2010 & 2013 revenues by franchise, they’re basically the same as today.
Sam, the only problem with your post is that you’re viewing baseball in the same spectrum of those other spots and it’s simply not and cannot be viewed that way.
Basketball is a star driven league, fans will follow the superstars. It’s also a much smaller roster and operates on a salary cap, and has a max contract. The players association will never allow that to happen.
The NFL only plays a handful of games, they also work on a hard cap, fans follow star quarterbacks and it’s viewed nationally on a weekly bases.
Baseball has way too many games to get teams on national television on a regular bases. It’s not a star driven league either. It’s widely regional with star players going to huge markets that can afford to pay them.
Baseball splits a lot of money among the teams, half the ticket sales, they split their tv deals which pays each team roughly 100 million per season, they have profit sharing and so on.
Then with market size, the Cardinals have the second most World Series, the Royals went to back to back World Series, the Rays compete every year. Outside of the Midwest, there are not very “small” markets, doesn’t necessarily mean those larger market teams spend though or operate their teams properly so they can.
Baseball Ebbs and flows like other sports. Some teams have dominate runs, some team have prolonged bad streaks. Playing in a larger market helps correct some mistakes but it’s not reason teams are good or bad.
And let’s not pretend there is this great disparity in other leagues. Who can forget the patriots run? The colts always being a top the afc south, the chiefs current run, it’s dominated by elite quarterbacks. The nba had the warriors, the cavs, the heat, lakers, bulls and so on.
Youth movement in San Francisco…fixed it for you
Pirates started the season 20-9. They are 34-39 today. That’s a 14-30 run since the end of April. If my math is correct that is a .318 win percentage. Only the A’s, who are on a historically bad pace this season, have been worse over that period at 13-34.
If they continue playing like they have the last month and a half the Pirates will finish the season at 62-100. The same exact record they had last season.
I would think that the Pirates “youth movement” is not so exciting right now for Pirates fans. Let’s hope for their sake that the team can turn it around and maybe finish with at least 70 wins.
There really isn’t a “ youth movement “ in Pittsburgh
Only Henry Davis was promoted due to his performance at Indy
The young pitchers promoted were done so out of desperation. Pitchers on the major league roster getting injured and those promoted to take their places
Marcano, Castro, Bae and Suwinski all have played at least 2 seasons with Pittsburgh and none are worthy of a roster spot
Some will argue that Suwinski leads the team in home runs but won’t mention that he also leads the team in strikeouts and is only 4th in runs produced
On a team that starves for offensive scoring, he’s not as good as many believe
I don’t know Bae is kind of intriguing and could flourish in the right spot. I agree with you that so far Suwinski is Patrick Wisdom 2.0 The others you mentioned don’t impress me either.
I wouldn’t sleep on Suwinski, yeah he strike outs a lot but he also plays quality defense and gives you offense from center field which isn’t the easiest thing to find. He’s also taken a fair share of walks this season so he isn’t completely embarrassing himself in the on base department.