Following the Mets’ decision to deal future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the Rangers over the weekend, eyes around the baseball world have turned toward the other Cooperstown-bound veteran in Queens: Justin Verlander. Previous reporting had connected the Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Reds to the veteran ace, though the Astros and Dodgers have appeared to be the frontrunners for Verlander’s services, in the event that he’s moved before the deadline.
More recent reports have echoed that sentiment, with SNY’s Andy Martino indicating that “three or four” clubs, including the Dodgers and Astros, have engaged with the Mets on Verlander, though no talks have progressed to the point of an agreement on specific players. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez expanded on the Dodgers’ reported interest with some specifics on negotiations between the sides.
Per Gonzalez, a deal between the sides is “unlikely” given the complicating factor of Verlander’s 2025 vesting option, which would convert to a player option if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. That being said, Gonzalez notes that the Mets were willing to pay down the majority of the money Scherzer was owed in order to extract a top prospect in the former of infielder Luisangel Acuna from the Rangers. Given the Mets’ dearth of top pitching prospects and the access LA enjoys, Gonzalez indicates that the likeliest path toward a Verlander deal would be the Dodgers putting together a prospect package of young pitchers that entices the Mets to pay down a significant portion of his salary.
Such a package would certainly be feasible for the Dodgers to put together, if they so chose. Five of the club’s top ten prospects are pitchers, per MLB Pipeline, and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Pepiot are either already in or approaching the majors. That list also doesn’t include young hurler Bobby Miller, who was the club’s top pitching prospect before he became a key cog in the 2023 club’s rotation. While the Dodgers surely wouldn’t consider moving Miller, dealing from the aforementioned trio of prospects could be a reasonable course of action for the Dodgers, perhaps paired with a lower-level arm like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack.
With other top-tier options like Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, and Jordan Montgomery having already moved this deadline, it’s possible that the Dodgers may be running out of alternative options in their pursuit of rotation upgrades. Gonzalez indicates that the club is only expected to add further pitching if it’s an impactful addition, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Marcus Stroman seemingly unlikely to move, Verlander and Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez could be the only arms left of that caliber.
Why would the Mets want LA’s scrub prospects?
The contract that he signed with the Mets is really a 3year deal. Year 2 (2024) has a kicker in it that if he pitches 140 innings it triggers a 3ed year .
I love that the Dodgers are always involved in FA and the trade deadline, but trading for Verlander doesnt win you a championship. And that salary is huge for a guy who is only getting older. There are some good teams this year that the Dodgers will have a hard time getting through in a 5 or 7 game playoff series. If I were Friedman (and Im not) I ride this year out, try and get everyone healthy for ’24 and throw the bank at Ohtani next year.
That’s my sentiment as well.
I have a question for you Hardball, or any other commenters here who know the rule, because I do not. If the Mets pay down all or part of Verlander‘s 2024 and 2025 salary, and he joins the Dodgers, does this mean that his salary will not count toward the Dodgers luxury tax liabilities in those years? I think Verlander salary, would still count against the Dodgers, but I’m not certain of that.
Only what the Dodgers are forced to pay, no?
I think the Mets pay both the salary and the tax on top of that, to whatever extent they pick up salary.
Joe, it seems to be the case that acquiring team would calculate remaining salary, PLUS what Cohen sent them, as part of the very abstruse tax calc?
or MINUS what Cohen sends to the acquiring team?
or MINUS what Cohen sends to the acquiring team?
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Yes. If Verlander salary is $43M, and Cohen pays half, then both sides AAV get hit for $21.5M.
Only the money the Dodgers pay him counts toward the tax. Its probable the Mets will pay at least half of his salary to get a decent prospect return. Verlander would force us to probably only sign Shohei OR Urias, but we could still afort 1 of them.
Dude said “us.” Why would Ohtani want to play for them?
@Neon Cop
Aside from the trolling–as it’s obvious what “dodgerfan83” means–are you asking why Ohtani would want to play for the Dodgers?
Do you not have any hobbies, or other ways to fill your time?
Neon Cop
Dude said “us.” Why would Ohtani want to play for them?
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Are you saying that Ohtani would refuse to play for the Dodgers? Why so?
They changed this rule. I couldn’t respond accurately. Only with what it was. It used to be the AAV goes against the Luxury Tax no matter who is paying it. And that would fluctuate based on Player/Club options and incentives. This is a lot to say I don’t know for certain but I hope this helps.
The portion the Mets pay counts against them and also counts towards their luxury tax amount. The portion another team pays counts against them and towards their luxury tax amount – if that applies to that team – whether Dodgers or Rangers or Astros or whoever.
So my understanding is that however it is split is how it applies to each team, and it should be to the year it is paid.
On a side note I’m not certain about, and which would only apply in specific circumstances, if any of the money is paid accelerated (early), my guess is that would still account against the year it is due for.
@norcalblue The only money that counts towards the LT is the money you yourself pay out. (With that money averaged over the years of the deal, of course.)
Thank you. The preponderance of the responses essentially agree with your clear statement. This is a significant point and provide some reason to believe that a deal could still take place. We will soon see. Thanks so much.
Teams that trade these kind of players always pay down the contract. It’s almost not even worth bringing it up except to ask “how much will they pay down to get the prospects they want?”
It literally already says that in the article, but thanks for the info!
I don’t get it. The Dodgers didn’t get any player of significance during the offseason. They were saving their sheckles so they could go after Ohtani this off-season. They were playing for 2024, not for 2023. Now, with the Dodgers most likely going to the PO, they’re building up their team, if you could call Lance Lynn an upgrade. They’re very much buyers.
They were playing for 2024? Who told you that?
They didn’t expect to be paying Bauers contract. When that happened they went over the luxury tax and the off-season was pretty much over at that point.
Clearing payroll space for Ohtani is the narrative beloved by the sports media, but that doesn’t make it accurate.
Their performance in 2023 may well have changed the FO’s and ownership’s emphasis.
There’s going to be one dbag that votes against Verlander going to Cooperstown just like with Derek Jeter
Why would you use Derek Jeter for your argument? He got more votes than anyone but isn’t even a top ten Yankee of all time. Who didn’t vote for Ruth and Gehrig would be better question?
One of the most clutch Yankees ever and the best Yankee SS ever. What planet are you on to even make such an idiotic statement
Do you think Jeter is in the same stratosphere as Ruth and Gehrig? Jeter is the 95th ranked player ranked by WAR in MLB history. He is by far not the best player to ever play the game. There are twenty Yankees with more World Series wins than him. Jeter was a hall of Famer but doesn’t deserve the highest ballot total in history of the sport at the time. Not even close.
WAR is the most useless and baseless statistic to determine how good a player is
The Hall of Fame is a joke in my eyes especially when Derek Jeter doesn’t get a unanimous vote, along with not putting other deserving players in the Hall.
In case anyone wants to troll Verlander, here is his line for his last 7 starts:
4W – 1L
42.1 IP
27 hits
7 ER
18 BB
37 K
1.49 ERA
1.06 WHIP
Enough posting about how the guy is past his prime, or no longer an ace. Even on an underperforming team, he has been lights-out.
I think verlander to the cubs is a good fit. They have the money and could use a replacement pitcher for stroman/Hendricks next season. They also have the farm system depth to trade from. Lots of OF prospects, no where to put them all though.
Very surprised to see Atlanta listed as a possible destination.
I find the possibility of him joining the braves as an unlikely but pleasing option.
There’s simply no way the Mets would trade him to the Braves. Maybe if he was a rental, but not when he’s under contract through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025. The Mets supposedly want to compete next year.
@Walk Off IBB Everyone will be competing next year. It’s the mealymouthed GM’s substitute for contending—which the Mets won’t do short of a $400m payroll. Given how far off they are from _contending,_ they’d do well to back off in 2024, play their four main prospects full time, and reload for 2025 during the 2024-25 offseason.
It’s not an option. The Mets aren’t trading a star player to the Braves or vice versa.
I’m surprised as well because the Braves don’t have the prospects to get it done. They’re a great organization but currently their farm system is one of the worst in the league.
Everyone has the prospects for Verlander. His contract is underwater. The only question is how much Cohen wants to chip in to buy prospects. What a mess.
Verlander’s contract is nowhere near underwater and he’s been pitching great. You don’t have any idea what you’re talking about. It’s not a mess by any means, which is why they’re reluctant to even trade him.
The Mets should have to eat all of Verlander’s salary and get low A ball prospects in return
If they can’t get upper prospects for him they’ll keep him , that was a joke right ? Pay all of his contract for a low A player
@jvent, I think it was a ‘make your bed’ type comment
The hell with the Mets go a different route
I wonder if the ease at which the Mets sign and then quickly toss aside players will be taken into account by future free agents?
Flattery is available
Flattery, like Flaherty, will get you nowhere.
Future free agents who want to be paid top dollar? Yeah I’m sure they won’t mind.
They may appreciate not having to play for the Mets, while getting paid by them.
NTCs will still be a thing. As long as Cohen is candid with free agents (and fans alike), I doubt it will be a deterring factor.
The Mets are hardly the only team to trade guys at the deadline during disappointing years.
It could actually be a selling feature. Get top dollar with a no trade clause, then choose your destination.
Is it possible that Scherzer….with all his intensity….just wasn’t a good fit on this team and so they just cleared him out?? That’s how I see it since the suspension and how demonstrative that he was innocent
Not sure why he wouldn’t fit in. The dude volunteered to be a union rep leader during the lockout and CBA negotiations which speaks about his character as he already has all the accolades and money.
His character comes into question on this team as he acts the fool when he’s caught “sticky” handed. Swore on his kids. Sheepish apology soon followed. He’s a hell of a competitor but at this stage in his career he needs help being the dominant pitcher he once was.
The Verlander ship sailed in 2017. That is when AF should have traded for him. I would not give up squat to take on that contract. Mets would have to pay some of the money like they did in the Scherzer trade. And, take Taylor and his contract.
Not gonna lie, the scouting report from MLB on each of these three Dodger prospects is middle of rotation through multi-inning reliever. If I’m trading an elite arm and picking up salary, I expect an elite triple-A starter. Otherwise, just sit on Verlander for a retooled 2024 run.
Bobby Miller looks like the most legitimate pitcher that they have. The others are “good” but if the Mets are paying Verlander’s salary, they should get a better return from the Dodgers.
Yes, because if this is all he is worth now, his value will only get higher as his performance lessens and he get older. Hold on to him.
He’s the defending Cy Young winner, someone who’s allowed just 2 runs through 19.1 innings in his last three starts. If you don’t want to pony up a fair return, then you must not be interested in bolstering your pitching corps.
That said, if you want to trade garbage, the Mets would be happy to give you Cookie instead. Wow has he been a disappointment on the mound since coming to New York.
Cookie had a 4.43 FIP in his 3 years with the Mets, including games where he should have been sitting, but the Mets #6 starters are so bad they just kept pushing him out there. Disappointing, yes, but perfectly acceptable raw stats for a #5.
Then the Mets should keep him if he is that good.
Honestly, that’s what I hope pans out. I want to build a better rotation for 2024 that include Verlander and Senga.
@echo, the 2025 option is a performance based trigger. After 140ip it becomes a vested option.
LAD one of the few teams that can afford, or want to, pay a 40 yo almost $100M to pitch over the next 2.5 yrs.
Freeman deferring $57M of his $162M until 2040 at 0% interest will give you that luxury.
But they probably wouldn’t have to. The Mets will have to kick in a big chunk of his guarantee to move him and get something meaningful back in return.
Then the Mets won’t trade him. They are not desperate to get him off the books.
They did it to move Scherzer. I don’t know any magic numbers but if I had to guess, it would take in the neighborhood of $25M to get any team to bite and to get a decent return.
*Correction: $22.5M (what NYM is paying of NYM’s contract) — the comment delete option doesn’t delete.
“They did it to move Scherzer.”
They moved Scherzer because he has not been performing. A FIP near 5, nearly two homers per 9 innings. Diminished velocity and spin rates. Maybe he puts it all together for Texas, but he’s been off his game nearly all season.
Verlander, however, is performing. Took a little bit to get going after an injury, but he’s been great for two months now.
They are not desperate to get him off the books.
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Then why did they pay maybe $36M to get rid of Scherzer?
He’s also two years older, and his contract takes him potentially through his age 42 season.
Verlander is outperforming sherzer by a lot.
And the Mets paid down more than half of what Scherzer was owed to make him move. I wouldn’t see them as having to go that far on Verlander, but not no place. My WAG is $25M, around a quarter of what he’s owned, depending on what the Mets want back.
Maybe a lot of guessing for nothing. Odds-on he goes nowhere.
“Then why did they pay maybe $36M to get rid of Scherzer?”
Because they’re two different people? They paid all of that money because Scherzer has been underperforming and his advanced stats are not good. Verlander, on the other hand, has been great. Is this such a difficult concept to grasp?
@BlueSkies_LA It’s interesting: If Verlander was available today for nothing but money, and you could have him for the 2023 stretch run and had to take on his option for 2025, making a total of… $92.77m for 2-1/3 years, would you pay it?
Would you be willing to go as high as 80m? Or 70m (which averages out to a 30m AAV)?
He’s just had a great 6 starts, but he’s 40 and that’s not his TT level. His 3.82 FIP and declining K and BB numbers aren’t illusions.
Well I personally don’t have that kind of money, but I question whether his market is still $43M per. When teams sign huge AAV contracts with special players it’s with the understanding that the out years are pretty likely be a loss in market value terms. Part of the price they pay to get prime years. So it depends on what odds you place on 2024 (and potentially 2025) being out years, the ones the Mets bought but other teams are going to be unexcited about inheriting. Feels like they’re going to have to offer a discount.
The Giants are only 2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, along with currently holding the #1 WildCard spot.
I’m hearing next to nothing about them making moves to improve their roster? What is Farhan’s strategy?
Meanwhile the Astros are trailing the Rangers and their SP is a joke, and their GM isn’t doing anything to upgrade at SS or get a better defensive LF’er or 1B.
on the contrary, Astros starting pitching is one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen, even with Framber & Javier having a really bad July. They are down Verlander, McCullers, Urquidy, and Luis Garcia, but are still holding it together and winning games, with Brown, France, Bielak, and Blanco.
His strategy is to not leak what he’s doing to the press.
Every single owner , KC , Pitt you name it can afford to pay big contracts. But within the “ system” employers always want to keep salaries down.
There is so much money available from revenues.
Don’t kid yourself , when any owner wants to spend or absorb $$ they can.
All billionaires.
And they don’t rely on their toys for their living.
Some spend as much money on annual maintenance on their yachts as JV’s contract.
This contains nothing other than speculation and scenarios that neither team has proposed.
I heard thru the grapevine, Arte gonna give Ohtani 2.5% equity in the coming 10 billion real estate development. The jewel will be a high end property tower. Ohtani Towers.
️️Angels!️️
It’s time for Billy Eppler to come out and say the Mets are taking Justin Verlander off the market. If they plan to contend in 2024, it doesn’t make sense to trade any more players signed past this year where they would have to significantly pay down contracts for prospects that aren’t going to factor into any effort next year. I’d also argue that it doesn’t pay to trade players with options for next year if the return is going to be minimal. Raley should be kept with his affordable $6M option. I believe Ottavino has an option too. Canha has an option too. If they don’t have any intention of picking it up, they should trade him but I still don’t see the point in paying down any more contracts if it’s just going to continue to add to their draft and international free agent penalties. Pham is the most likely to go and it wouldn’t upset me if he were the only one to go.
Yes, I’m a delusional fan, but after seeing what the Phillies did last year, fighting their way to the last wildcard spot and tearing it up in the postseason is not out of the question. This is a team that started the season 15-7, I believe, then rebounded from a horrendous June with a decent July (14-9).
If they plan to contend in 2024, it doesn’t make sense to trade any more players signed past this year
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I said the same thing about Scherzer. They paid him down to about $16M/year. Even assuming that Scherzer is a #3, they still need to replace him. It feels like they are just going to make another mistake in acquiring a replacement.
Tony Gonsolin and Michael Grove — only package available for the cheater
I’d love to package Stanton and Cole to LAD for their player development staff and a few prospects.
Dodgers management will not go over the third tier luxury tax threshold. With that said, there is only so much they can do. With the plethora of injuries and subpar performances by Urias & Gonsolin, is getting another pitcher propel them deep into the playoffs?
I watch all their games. I have my doubts that they’ll make it to the NLCS. They seem more poised to make a run at the World Series next year. Perhaps they should keep their farm system in tact.
If they trade Verlander they have to get a young pitcher already in the league to replace him. The article mentioned Bobby Miller which is obviously not happening but that’s the kind of return they need. They just can’t lose another of next year’s starters without a replacement
I think the Mets are over valuing Verlander. The mets gave him a massive contract and no want out from underneath it but they want too much for him. At 40 years old with 2 more years a lot of time for Verlander to become less quality pitcher. I think the Mets will keep him and regret it.
I think it more the Mets gauging the value of the market and seeing a valuable chip turn into something (or fizzle out and on to next year)
Here’s the deal:
Mets send Verlander to Dodgers and agree that if Verlander exercises his 35 million option in 2025, Mets pay it.
Dodgers send Chris Taylor, Gavin Stone, and Frasso or Ryan.
Or Mets add 10 million, don’t take back Taylor and Dodgers add Hurt or Kopp.
Or if Mets not psyched to buy lower on Stone, replace him with Sheehan, take Frasso or Ryan out of the deal and maybe put Knack in instead.
Are the Dodgers that poor they can’t pay for their players? The Mets aren’t paying down his contract or they won’t trade him.
To get good prospects back. I think whether the Mets trade him or not – they value him more than Scherzer- has a lot to do with what we don’t know – what is Verlander now telling the Mets behind the scenes. If he is now begging out, the Mets might accommodate and try to maximize prospect return. My proposal also leaves open that the chance that the Mets pay zero money – if Verlander does not exercise his player option for 2025.
Why didn’t he just stay with the Astros?? I know it’s because he wanted to get that last but of the 40 or so million he’s making smh
“I know it’s because he wanted to get that last but of the 40 or so million he’s making smh”
That’s not why he took the Mets offer as NYS taxes take away the extra money he got by signing with the Mets. Maybe it’s family related, maybe he wanted to play with certain players, but it wasn’t strictly the money because he might actually make less with the Mets when you consider taxes.
Mets and Dodgers fans talk a lot.
Verlander rocks and is your best option. Here’s a big game pitcher. I don’t think the Mets will trade him to be honest as they plan to compete next year.
Having said that you should trade Michael Busch and Landon Knack to the Tigers for Erod and a bullpen arm. Why? Because he is a good pitcher who xan help you win now, if you don’t then Zaidi might well grab him from old pal Scott Harris and adtly because I am bored of waiting for a Tigers trade! Busch is not Lou Whittaker and Knack is not Jack Morris, to use some Tiger’s analogies, so dont overvalue your prospects.
HAL2000 the trade simulator will tell you that Knack alone is worth the whole 1984 Tigers team. Don’t listen, HAL tells lies!
The big game pitcher who’s 1 and 6 in the World Series, with a 5.63 ERA?
Bumgarner is available and I’m sure his WS stats are incredible!!
I don’t think Verlander wants to be traded. But let’s say he does. The Dodger’s need him and he’s got his best chance at another ring with them. I thinks he stays with the Mets, gets hurt again and cashes him checks from here to Cooperstown.
First you need to get to the playoffs and then the world series! To do that you heed people who know how to win, which is him.
So the Mets could feasibily “Get the Knack”. Sorry, I had to do it.
My, my, my, my….