The Dodgers announced that Tony Gonsolin will undergo Tommy John surgery. The procedure will be performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Friday.
Gonsolin was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2023 season. The club had announced his injury as forearm inflammation when first placing him on the IL last week. They transferred him to the 60-day IL yesterday to close the book on this year.
Now, it seems unlikely he’ll be a factor again until 2025. A Tommy John procedure typically comes with a recovery time pushing or exceeding 14 months. Perhaps he’d be able to make a return late next season, but the safer bet is that he’ll spend the entire ’24 campaign on the 60-day injured list.
Arm injuries have been an unfortunately recurring theme for Gonsolin during his five-year big league career. He lost a couple months early in 2021 with shoulder inflammation. He posted a 3.23 ERA in 15 starts that year and was healthy for the first part of 2022. Gonsolin turned in an All-Star first half and worked to a sparkling 2.14 ERA through 130 1/3 innings. A forearm strain sent him to the IL in late August.
Gonsolin returned at the end of September and made a start in L.A.’s playoff series loss to the Padres. His 2023 debut was delayed by an unrelated ankle sprain, though he returned in late April. The 29-year-old worked 103 innings across 20 outings, struggling to his first below-average season. He allowed just under five earned runs per nine while striking hitters out at a career-low 18.9% clip while his average fastball speed dipped from 93.1 MPH to 92.4 MPH. Things spiraled from late June onward, as Gonsolin allowed four-plus runs in eight of his 11 outings before being placed on the IL.
The Dodgers have now lost a pair of their expected top five starters to forearm surgeries. Dustin May underwent a flexor tendon procedure in early July. The Dodgers indicated May could be back midway through the ’24 season.
Los Angeles was certain to address their rotation next offseason even if May and Gonsolin had been healthy. Clayton Kershaw is an impending free agent, and while the Dodgers would surely have interest in re-signing him, the three-time Cy Young winner will first need to decide whether he wants to suit up for a 17th season. Julio Urías will be one of the top starters in next winter’s free agent class, while the Dodgers will have to make a net $17MM decision on an option for Lance Lynn.
The Dodgers could welcome Walker Buehler back in short stints next month and transition him back to the rotation for ’24. Rookie Bobby Miller has pitched well enough to stake a claim to a spot. That leaves as many as three jobs still to be sorted out between free agency, trade and some combination of Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove and perhaps a prospect like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack. The pitching pipeline is strong enough they won’t be short on options, but they’ll obviously need to fortify the starting staff with additional certainty.
Gonsolin signed a two-year deal to cover his first couple arbitration seasons in January. He’s guaranteed a $3.4MM base salary for next year. That deal contained up to $3MM in start-based incentives which he won’t be able to trigger even if he makes a late-season return. Even beyond the lengthy rehab process, the absence will be fairly costly for the right-hander. He’ll remain eligible for arbitration through the 2026 campaign.
Okay we need to start pitching underhanded eeephus pitches only from now on. Or knuckleballs only …5 man rotation of Charlie Hough clones and they can pitch until they’re 60.
What a bummer. Great pitcher when healthy….. and when allowed to use spider tak lol
get new material
Wow, you hurt me feelings Tyson. Thought we were friends
He’s like “You ain’t man enough to handle a man like me”
@tcsbaseball i’m sorry i take it back friend
I’m glad you guys made nice. It warms the heart.
Ignorant son of a b… NAH MANFRED JUST NEEDS TO GET OVER HIMSELF and eliminate the pitch timer and change of pace rules so these boys get a chance to be Randy Johnson instead of SHORT BOYS….
>need to start pitching underhanded
Women throw softballs underhanded pretty fast. I don’t know how well (if at all) that would work with a baseball.
I want Haliey Cruse to be my everyday starting left fielder
Ignorant: So, slow pitch softball. That’s true, you never see those weekend warriors undergo TJS. Charlie Hough is a good start, but don’t forget Wilbur Wood, who pitched both ends of a doubleheader more than once for the White Sox. Then there’s Phil Niekro, etc.
Love Wilbur Wood!! Hey I have a fuzzy memory but how about Tom Candiotti …Cleveland pitcher, was he a knuckleballer as well? He had a couple good seasons if I’m recalling correctly.
There was this baseball instructional show that was on WGN in the early 90’s and on one episode, Candiotti gave an awesome tutorial on the knuckleball. You might be able to find it online somewhere. That became my go-to pitch in neighborhood games as a kid.
Yup Candiotti was a decent starter. I remember him more as an Indian or should I say Guardian. He was in LA for a few years. Like most knuckleballers he stuck around for awhile.
Chris how’s it feel to have every team in your local area suck a huge one?
I believe the correct spelling is ‘yuge’. I’m here to help.
Learn to spell first before trolling. It feels great thanks for asking. You must be a toolbox from a small market.And I’d assume that’s not all that’s small on you.
Go Dodgers baby!
I’m from sunny ratless schmuckless LA. I just love when the Yankees and Mets suck. Specially NYY. The days of them playing against part time butchers and grocery clerks are O-V-E-R. You’ll never see another dynasty again unless as long as LA, HOU, and ATL are around. Send the message ^_^
I don’t think LA is “shmuckless” because your saying you live there. And again your grammar is terrible but I’ll give you credit trying to use Yiddish.I like the Dodgers but dynasty? They’ve won one world series in the last 35 years. One!!! Houston has 2 in that time as do the Braves and those Yankees have 5. And since 88 every time the Mets and Dodgers have met in the playoffs LA went home.The Dodgers are a regular season juggernaut who disappear in the playoffs. And you are a small market toolbox. NYC>LA. NYC is the largest market in the USA. Go Astros!!!!
Guys, can’t we make nice like @Tcsbaseball and @Tyson’s Pet Tiger did in their replies above? They’re truly an inspiration to us all.
I did say above that I like the Dodgers. And I personally have nothing against the Dodgers or Los Angeles. Seems like this guy had something bad happen to him in New York and can’t get over it. Kinda lame. I won’t engage any further. You have my word.
Wilbur Wood hurled 376.2 innings in 49 games with a 2.51 ERA, 20 CG’s and 8 shutouts during the 154 game strike shortened season in 1972.
Had they played 162, he would have had at least 2 more starts, over 390 innings.
Not that bullpens were used as they are today, but what would a pitcher be worth today if he could throw 375 plus innings of 2.51 ERA ball in a season.
Like Warren Spahn, Wilbur Wood “pitched”. He didn’t “whip” the ball. The new generation learns at a young age to throw as hard as they can and it destroys their arms. Plus, pitchers have been sissified over the past 30-40 years with this “Oh, no! He can’t go more than six” philosophy. Let them man up and start pitching complete games again.
BBRB = Bring Back Real Baseball
Tommy John surgery was invented in the 1974. Of course pitchers in the to 0’s and 70’s were getting hurt.
“In the 1960s and early 1970s, the incidence of shoulder and elbow pain in professional baseball pitchers approached 50%”
And it was a problem long before that.
“The first report documenting elbow problems in professional baseball players was published in 1941”
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2465120/#:~:text=….
Total garbage take.
When did people get so sissified that they think whatever they want to be true is true?
Pathetic
But only Dave Veres threw a SCREWBALL
Fernando had an impressive screwball.
Hoyt Wilhelm
Man!!!!! I can’t believe nobody mentioned Hoyt until now…probably the Knucklebull King. Pittsburgh Pirates I believe?
Oh for God’s sake! This is insane!
The dodgers got so much depth that not getting dude from Detroit shouldn’t matter at all? What ate you talking about? – Tommy Lasorda
That’s #2 for him?
no
What were the injuries that kept him out so much time over the past 5 seasons.
Forearm (rehab) and other than that I think it was more pitch count stuff
Thanks. Appreciate the info.
Shoulder and ankle
that’s it the dodgers are are toast!
Time for a rebuild!
Dodgers are going to win 100 games for the 3rd straight year and you want them to rebuild…..
It’s a joke. I’m guessing you’re not too familiar with those
I’m sorry SenorTortas, yes I should have seen the sarcasm. : )
The internet is fully of SMILEY GLAD HANDS!
They make serious people look like who framed rodger rabbit all the time?
How many Dodgers have undergone TJS in recent years? Seems like more than most other teams.
So who’s the Jelly
Jellyrolls grave digger, I mean gold digger
In 8 years through the minors and majors Gonsolin never threw more than 132 innings in a season.
probably began in youth baseball such as travel ball to pitch constantly
Nope. 132 1/3 in 2022! haha
Lol you got me vtaDave
“Oh whats this a bar of soap”
“Ha I got you good!”
Bite it rook make him look like a pig
Come on bite it
“Oh hell Give me the soap”
*Bites it and spits chunk out*
There ya happy? Now my poop is purple and smells like rainbow sherbert!
and the babying again fails…..
Ignorant comment, of course.
You can’t know that pitchers who weren’t “babied”, wouldn’t get injured at a higher rate. They almost certainly would.
It’s far from ignorant. EVERYONE is babied and they all get injured. Maybe a different path is necessary? One thing I know for SURE, what they’re doing today is NOT working and there’s plenty of statistical proof to back it up. Injuries and surgery increase every year and will until they try something different. Either don’t expect everyone to throw 100+ mph or pitch them more, younger and find out who’s arm can actually sustain pitching. Because this way ain’t working and continuing down this path is ridiculous.
Amen. Preach it, brother.
It’s very ignorant
Think for a few seconds about what you’re saying.
You want teams to pitch pitchers more to find out who can avoid injury? What’s the weeding out process for that going to look like? A bunch of UCL injuries for the pitchers who can’t handle it? What do you think you’ve gained?
TJ surgery was invented nearly a half century ago. This is not a new issue. Arms aren’t made to do this.
Ignorant comment, of course.
You can’t know that pitchers who were babied wouldn’t get injured at a higher rate. They almost certainly would.
Knew that was coming
3rd starter to have major surgery in the past year? But I thought the Dodgers staff was a step ahead of everyone?
Well I’m anti-Dodger but this sucks for the guy. Someone explain how Urias, Anderson, Gonsolin and Heaney were rather dominant in 2022 and all went down the tubes in 23. Kershaw is still doing Kershaw things between IL stints.
Somehow, they have some young guys holding it together and are in first.
Last year they had pitching and hitting. This year only the hitting has been above average – by a lot.
But the hitting has been so “when it matters” to translate into wins.
I can’t see them relying on Buehler (limited innings) and those same 4 or 5 young guys in 24 but it kind of reminds of Atlanta in early 90’s – throw em out there and see what happens.
Anderson and Heaney went “down the tubes” because they left the Dodgers. Urias’ strikeout and walk rates are better than his career averages, but he’s been bit by the long ball far too much. More of an issue with inconsistent location from what I’ve seen
“Because they left the Dodgers” –
Really, that is your explanation for 2 different guys decline.
Oh, can I mention they 2 others didn’t leave the Dodgers and they declined drastically.
Longtimecoming: “Someone explain how Urias, Anderson, Gonsolin and Heaney were rather dominant in 2022 and all went down the tubes in 23”
Let’s start with Anderson. He really wasn’t dominant in 2022. He had a 103 xFIP last year (basically league average) compared to a 106 career xFIP (basically career average). He really didn’t pitch any better. He had a super low BABIP (.256 compared to .292 career) and HR/FB rate (6.4% to 11.4%). He is pitching worse this year. Largely walking a lot more (5% to 10%) and giving up more home runs (1% increase in HR/FB rate, but his highest FB% of his career. Couple that with a huge increase in BABIP (256 to .321) and things looks a lot different (58 point increase in ERA-, compared to just a 23 point increase in xFIP-).
Next, Heaney. He had an outlier year in 2022 for K%-BB% (19% to 29%).. Was that because the Dodgers knew how to have him pitch, or because he only faced 300 hitters and it’s easier for extreme results in small samples? Or a combination of both? I’d bet on the latter.
As for Urias, his BB (6% to 5%) and K (24% to 25%) rates are about the same. Thus, his xFIP- for both years is about the same (95 to 93). He’s not really pitching worse than last season. Last year he had a super low .229 BABIP, this year’s is a more normal .277. He’s given up a few more homers (15% to 10%).
Last year a monster 86% strand rate. This year he’s just at 74%. He’s pitching about the same. Was lucky last year, and unlucky this year.
Gonsolin. He’s been injured this year, that’s one obvious thing. So, he has worse BB (7% to 9%) and K (24% to 19%) rates. Also a much worse HR/FB rate (8% to 14%). Like Urias, a huge strand rate (84%) last year and a terrible one (68%) this year. Pitching worse, likely due to his injury, and worse luck.
As is almost always the case with these things, pitcher who looked really good one year got some added luck, and pitcher who looked really bad another year, got bad luck. And their underlying skills didn’t really change THAT much.
TLDR:
PITCHER 2022 ERA-/2023 ERA-, 2022 xFIP-/2023 xFIP-
Anderson 65/122, 102/126
Heaney 78/100, 71/105
Urias 55/103, 95/93
Gonsolin 55/103, 93/120
Total difference in ERA- 175.
Total difference in xFIP- 77
Much less difference in xFIP- than in ERA-. And xFIP- is a much better measure of pitcher performance.
Their actual pitching doesn’t look like it’s changed nearly as much as ERA might lead you to believe.
Dodgers 2023 starters and 2024 Status
Urias – 20 GS, 112 Innings. Free Agent
Gonsolin – 20 GS, 103 innings. Likely to miss season with injury
Kershaw – 19 GS, 107 innings. Free agent
Miller – 15 GS, 82 innings. Likely rotation member
Syndergaard – 12 GS, 55 innings. Traded
Grove – 12 GS, 50 innings. Likely AAA
May – 9 GS, 48 innings, Injured. May be back at mid season.
Sheehan – 7 GS, 34 innings. Likely AAA
Lynn – 5 GS, 30 innings. Team option
Yarbrough – 5 bulk games, 15 innings.
Stone – 3 GS, 10 innings. Likely AAA
Pepiot – 2 bulk games, 9 innings. Likely AAA
Buehler – 0 GS, 0 innings. Likely rotation.
Only one pitcher, rookie Bobby MIller, who made starts (openers excluded) for the Dodgers this year is both under contract and likely to make the opening day Dodger rotation next year.
Buehler is likely to be in the rotation. But, he has to show that he’s healthy.
Hopefully Kershaw will be back for his 25 or so starts.
Urias seems unlikely to be re-signed. But, maybe.
Lynn might be re-signed. Maybe not
Yarbrough may be back as a long-reliever/spot starter.
May might be back. Maybe not.
Stone, Pepiot, Grove and Sheehan aren’t likely to be handed a starting spot out of spring training.
The Dodgers need at least 2 pitchers who aren’t under contract for next year. Maybe 3 if Lynn isn’t re-signed. Two of those may be Kershaw and Urias
A rotation of: Kershaw, Urias, Miller, Buehler and Lynn with Yarbrough and Stone, Pepiot, Grove and Sheehan and maybe May at mid-season might be enough.
Or the team could use some of the rookie pitchers, and other minor leauge talent, to acquire pitching through trade.
Pepiot earned a rotation spot this spring but was injured. He wasn’t handed anything. He’ll be in the rotation in 2024, too, I betcha.
They will go after Nola
@Neon Cop 1/3 of MLB pitchers has had TJS. This isn’t a Dodgers issue, it’s an Baseball issue
syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1699659-the-ala…
every team has lost 3 starters to TJ within the past year?
I think the Padres had 2021 as their year. It rotates between teams!
Don’t feed the trolls. PeeonCop is just here to trash the Dodgers and stir the pot to get the attention he didn’t receive as a child.
No clue who you are…
An article from 2013? Seriously?
And that 1/3 figure of pitchers having Tommy John surgery was from 10 years ago. I wonder how much higher the figure is now
Get well soon Tony! I’ll leave the light on for you buddy.
Dodgers’ 5 rookie starters have combined for
45G, 37GS, 211 IP, 7%BB, 21%K, 5.50 ERA, but 4.40 FIP, 4.42 xFIP
So, bad ERA, but league averagish peripheral numbers including FIP and xFIP
The Dodgers medical staff needs to be overhauled
I don’t know if it’s the medical staff, or the Dodgers’ (and most of the rest of baseball’s) current pitching philosophy. Pitchers throw all out every pitch for as long as they’re in there, no pacing yourself. This may lead to the lowest possible ERAs but also a lot of ills: short starts/exhausted bullpens, babying instead of building up prospects, and injuries. I’d put this more on Friedman and analytics.
What are you “putting on” Friedman and analytics, exactly?
Increased performance? Even with “short starts/exhausted bullpens, babying instead of building up prospects and injuries” (granting,for now, that increased injuries are a result of current pitching philosophy), pitchers have had the advantage (causing MLB to introduce (it appears) a more lively ball and rules more favorable to hitters.
Why on earth would teams adopt strategies that lead to decreased performance?
Winning brings fans. You don’t see old school teams like the Rockies and Royals leading the league in attendance, do you? Who does? Largely teams that win, including Friedman’s Dodgers.
Of course.
Sounds like he’s been pitching with this for at least a couple months and was shelved only for ineffectiveness. Impressive in its own way, but before the 70s every pitcher with a dead arm had to do this… just tough it out.
Seems like Ohtani might have been pitching with a damaged wing for a bit too, refusing an MRI. Whenever I look at the baseball records of old-time pitchers who were very good and then hit a wall, I suspect they probably had blown out the toe UCL’s, but there was no surgery then for that.
“Elbow”, not toe. They probably could have handled the toe tear!
As a child I had a book that had biographies of prominent baseball players, Koufax among them. Even though written for children/young adults, the descriptions of what he pitched through were so gruesome I still remember them. Elbow swollen up so his arm was as big as his leg, mainlining cortisone, a numb fingertip split without bleeding, his left palm faced out at rest. And he’d be out a week or two then be back at it.
Sorry to say but he probably pitched his last game as a Dodger
Before the spitball was banned:
0 Tommy John Surgeries
After Tommy John came around:
1000s of Tommy John Surgeries
Coincidence? I think not.
No one cares about this clown.
More people care about Gonsolin than care about soulcrusher.
Being a jerk just to be a jerk
Muted
Fillhok, he was talking about himself.
Dodgers are starting to become the new Mets when it comes to breaking pitchers. At this point you’ve got to start looking at coaching or how they’re handling their pitchers day to day work. Gonsolin isn’t even a max effort guy like all the dudes getting their string-cheese elbows weaved back together.
Funny how no team reaches out to Leo Mazzone and ask why none of his starters had TJS
Spin rate, speed gun, weighted balls sweepers and aiming for 100 mph kill arms. Pitchers need to rum more, build up their lower body and throw much more long toss.
If Gonsolin is aiming for 100 mph he missed. By a lot.
One size does not fit all
If the shoe fits, wear it.
Mazzone is almost 75 some teams might have reached out to him and he has no desire or is not healthy enough to do so. Also half of the “Young Guns”(as they were referred to) of those Braves teams, had careers derailed by injury. Smoltz and Glavine obviously had amazing careers. Avery though hurt his arm with Braves and his career was never the same. Pete Smith was injured and never really took off.
So the notion Braves taught their pitchers to avoid injury is utterly false
Smoltz had TJ surgery
See you in 18 months, Cat Man. Good luck to you!
Roberts has a month to figure out who will replace Tony in the playoffs.
This leaves yet another rotation spot open for one of these rookies in ’24. Miller should have already earned a spot in next year’s rotation. Sheehan has an impressive repertoire of pitches early on. Hopefully Gavin Stone can make strides and contribute more next year.
Good news, the Dodgers luxury tax threshold will be reset so they’ll spend in the offseason.
Go Big Blue!
This news doesn’t change anything for the playoffs, at least not for 2023. Also not sure where you get a CBT reset for the Dodgers. They are well over this year.
The Dodgers exceeded the threshold in 2022 and 2023. If they exceed next season they will be subjected to a 50% penalty
They were on course to reset this year but the Trevor Bauer ruling put them over the line. The figure used for tax purposes is a teams payroll as of opening day. If the ruling came after opening day the 20 million or so would not have counted against their opening day payroll and then they would have been on course to reset.
From the MLB website… “Every team’s final CBT figure is calculated at the end of each season.” mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-…
The end of year CBT figure is used to determine how much a team owns. A team is determined to go over if their opening day roster is exceeds $233 million. Bauer out them at 232 and the trade for Rojas put them at 237. They will be paying the hugest rate this year
FWIW, the Bauer ruling actually put them just under the CBT line by a whisker. So close they couldn’t even promote anyone from the minors without exceeding it. A technicality, but that’s the way it was. just the same. The gift that keeps on giving.
Put them at 232. Trading for Rojas put them at 237. If the ruling came down after opening they would have had an opening day salary at 215, well under the treshhold. Bad timing
But as it has already been pointed out the CBT is calculated at the end of the season, not at the beginning.
I see. So, according to Spotrac, their projected payroll in ’24 is $136 million. That’s only for 12 players (which includes Treinin, Hudson, Kelly & Gonsolin).
That leads me to believe two things:
1) the front office will have a busy offseason
2) They’ll exceed the $237 CBT threshold
So, why not go big?
Man, this sucks. I’m a Yankees fan but I have always loved Gonsolin. Seems like a no-BS, hard working type of pitcher and he’s fun to bet on. Hate to see it.
Tommy Johnsolin
Tony GoneSoLong
Talk about “babying” a pitcher doesn’t do anything to protect an arm! Gonsolin was the most “babied” pitcher in the game by a team. SMH. All these millions of dollars the league makes and they still can’t figure out this problem!
Ruthlessly pricking our Gonsolin bubble….
Tony said he knew his arm was toast dating back to June, so in real life terms, he knew prior to signing that contract extension. Convenient
Linkage, or you’re full of it.