Headlines

  • Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson
  • Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September
  • Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft
  • 2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results
  • Red Sox Place Hunter Dobbins On 15-Day IL Due To ACL Tear
  • Astros Promote Brice Matthews
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Kyle Hendricks’s Return To Form

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

When thinking about bounceback seasons on the 2023 Chicago Cubs, you’d be forgiven for seeing the excellent season Cody Bellinger is putting together giving it your full attention. After all, the former NL MVP was one of the worst regulars in baseball over the past two seasons and has bounced back to not only be an above-average regular but the best hitter set to hit the free agent market this side of Shohei Ohtani. If you look a little further down the club’s WAR leaderboard, however, you’ll find there’s another player on the team who received award voting recognition early in his career for whom things seemingly started to come apart at the seams over the past two seasons, only for him to rebound in a big way in 2023 with a unexpectedly strong season. That player is right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks.

The lone remaining player of Chicago’s 2016 World Series core, Hendricks was once one of the best starters in the majors in terms of sheer run prevention. Between the years of 2016 and 2020, only five pitchers with at least 500 innings of work posted a lower ERA than Hendricks: Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. Unlike the five multi-time Cy Young winners ahead of him, Hendricks has never been looked at as on the shortlist of the best pitchers in the league. While Hendricks finished third in Cy Young award voting in 2016 behind Scherzer and teammate Jon Lester, he’s only received votes one other time in his career and has never made an All Star game.

The main culprit for that is his lack of strikeouts. Even during his 2016-20 peak he ranked among the league’s bottom 20 hurlers in terms of strikeout rate, and his fastball hasn’t average 90 mph since his sophomore season as a big league regular back in 2016. Hendricks made up for that during his peak years with pinpoint control (5.3% walk rate), a strong 46.6% groundball rate, and a penchant for suppressing the long ball (11.5% HR/FB). Still, those positive traits couldn’t completely outweigh his lack of strikeouts and left him with a 3.60 FIP that, while strong, was more in the realm of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell than Kershaw and deGrom.

Unfortunately for Hendricks, his dominance in terms of run prevention wouldn’t last. The 2021 and 2022 seasons proved to be brutal ones for Hendricks, as he not only was a below average starting pitcher for the first time in his career but dealt with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder during 2022 that left him shut down partway through the year. Across his 265 1/3 innings of work those two seasons, the results were nothing short of ugly: his 4.78 ERA with a 4.87 FIP in that time were 16% and 18% worse than the league average, respectively. Meanwhile, his peripheral numbers declined across the board his strikeout rate dipped from the 21.1% of his peak years to just 17.3%, his walk rate climbed to 6%, his groundball rate dropped to 41%, and he began to allow home runs on 14.8% of his fly balls.

Heading into the 2023 season, it was fair to wonder if the tightrope act of Hendricks’s early career, where he managed to get elite results despite a fastball that would’ve been slower than average 20 years ago thanks to excellent command and quality of contact numbers, was over. After all, he was pairing a bottom ten strikeout rate in the majors with a 8.8% barrel rate that was lower than only 26 other players with at least 200 innings of work between those years, figures that put him in the same conversation as Zach Plesac and Dallas Keuchel. Chicago’s $14.5MM decision on Hendricks’s $16MM club option for 2024 figured to be declined without as much as a second thought.

Ever since making his season debut in May, however, Hendricks appears to have climbed right back up on the tightrope. The now 33-year-old righty has posted a 3.66 ERA that’s 24% better than league average with a 3.80 FIP across 23 starts (132 2/3 innings of work) this season. Those top level numbers put him in the same conversation as quality mid-rotation arms like Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez. A look at his peripheral numbers mostly backs up the veteran’s return to form, as well: his 4.3% walk rate this season is the best of his career in a 162-game season, and his 45.2% groundball rate is a top-25 figure in the majors that appears in the same conversation as players like Ohtani and Corbin Burnes.

That said, there are still some potential red flags. Most obviously, Hendricks is striking out less batters than ever before this year, even by his own standards. His strikeout rate is ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 130 innings this year, and no other pitcher in the bottom ten is above average by both ERA- and FIP-. Meanwhile, his 8.7% HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career, indicating that some regression should be expected in that regard. His barrel rate has dropped from the 8.8% figure he posted the last two years, which is a positive sign, but 6.4% figure is still a far cry from the 4.3% he posted in his prime.

Between Hendricks’s quality mid-rotation production in 2023, his track record as something of a unicorn in the modern game, and these potential red flags when digging into his profile, that aforementioned $14.5MM decision the Cubs face on his 2024 option figures to be one of the more interesting decisions a club will be faced with this offseason. Should his option be declined, the veteran righty figures to add another intriguing arm to what’s already an unusually deep free agent class when it comes to starting pitching. Regardless of what the future holds for Hendricks, though, his rebound has been one of the biggest surprises for a Cubs team that has surpassed expectations across the board this season.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Kyle Hendricks

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Taylor
Main
Giants Notes: Alexander, Junis, Bailey
View Comments (22)
Post a Comment

22 Comments

  1. JayRyder

    2 years ago

    Do they dare and go for a ten year deal for Cody ? Ten, 300 mil. Curious.

    Reply
    • shotokan

      2 years ago

      Does Cody dare to go back to the high pressure of the West coast or even higher pressures out East?

      Reply
    • Dogbone

      2 years ago

      Ten years for anybody is not a smart move – at all. In fact it’s a move of desperation. And while I think Belli is having a great season, I wouldn’t even go over five years, for his services- and that, only because of his age.
      Owners need to wake up and grow a spine.

      1
      Reply
      • filihok

        2 years ago

        db

        Actually

        10 years is a smart deal for every player

        Take a league minimum player. Why pay $700K for one season if you could pay $86,000 over 10 years.

        The years really don’t matter (to the team. Of course it matters to the player since they are tied to the team and that contract for the time) on contracts. The present Value of the contract is what matters.

        Reply
        • Dogbone

          2 years ago

          @filihook. You make absolutely NO sense.

          Reply
        • filihok

          2 years ago

          Db

          Just because you fail to understand, doesn’t mean I don’t make sense

          Take a basic economics course and get back to me

          Reply
        • But I Do

          2 years ago

          filihook is one of the biggest morons on here.

          2
          Reply
        • But I Do

          2 years ago

          You’re in no position to tell anyone to take courses until you pass out of 5th grade English, fili.

          Reply
    • mike127

      2 years ago

      I think the Cubs eliminate Cody with one simple fact. Beginning next year, Cody FOR THE CUBS becomes first base 90+% of the time.

      With Happ and Suzuki locked in for three more years plus a plethora of high prospect outfielders, Bellinger becomes their number one first baseman by far.

      And I think that Cody, even with him liking Chicago, will still want to go to a team that will make him a primary center fielder.

      His options are much more limited with the Cubs.

      It would be great for him to stay, but he has reached that free agent point of the career where HE gets to choose.

      Reply
    • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

      2 years ago

      They won’t give him 10 years because of pca. He shouldn’t want more than 6 years tbh. A 5 year deal he’ll will be only 33 and still able to get another big deal afterwards.

      1
      Reply
      • JayRyder

        2 years ago

        I was thinking the same thing. But that is very team friendly. At least according to agents from what I think. Max earnings not free agent in five years and try again. Of course that’s were agents get paid. Maneuvering all teams interested.

        Reply
  2. west212

    2 years ago

    Weird, another pre free agent resurgence… I wonder what that’s attributed to? I wonder if his performance will drop off again post signing a contract? Hmm…

    1
    Reply
  3. Don Zimmer

    2 years ago

    Rumor has it Cohen offers Hendricks 5 years, $200M.

    1
    Reply
  4. darthdragula

    2 years ago

    How much acid do sports writers do? They see unicorns everywhere. Every single time someone shows a heightened ability they call him a unicorn. Now part of someone’s track record is a unicorn. Do any of these clowns go to journalism school? If so the professors must teach two things.
    1- Use the word ‘obviously’ in just about every sentence so people will think you know what you’re talking about and don’t want to challenge it.
    2- Call everything a unicorn.

    4
    Reply
    • riffraff

      2 years ago

      darth – obviously you’re a unicorn.

      4
      Reply
    • briar-patch thatcher

      2 years ago

      I thought in your tirade you would’ve been incredulous about the extra s and apostrophe after the ‘S’ in Hendricks, but you let me down.

      2
      Reply
  5. PutPeteinthehall

    2 years ago

    Nine years service time all with the Cubs. Soft tossers have been known to play for a long time. Suspect he works out a deal with the Cubs and 24 is his last season in baseball. The tank is almost empty and his game won’t transfer to the ‘pen.

    1
    Reply
  6. ROCKY07

    2 years ago

    Maybe the title of this article should be Kyle’s return to his mediocre form…..jeez, if not for analytics pointing both up and down this wouldn’t even be worthy of an actual article….

    1
    Reply
    • I Like Big Bunts

      2 years ago

      This comment is too asinine to return to any form.

      2
      Reply
    • But I Do

      2 years ago

      Analytics that any casual fan could just look up online and understand. Such a puff piece.

      1
      Reply
  7. But I Do

    2 years ago

    Another fluff article that MLBTR is getting roasted for. A few paragraphs about a mediocre pitcher with a weak attempt at analysis. Stick to transactions and stay in your lane, kiddos.

    1
    Reply
    • LetTheGoodTimesROFL

      2 years ago

      Somebody needs a snickers

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson

    Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September

    Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft

    2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results

    Red Sox Place Hunter Dobbins On 15-Day IL Due To ACL Tear

    Astros Promote Brice Matthews

    Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow

    Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

    Yankees Prioritizing Pitching, Also Searching For Infield Help

    Orioles Trade Bryan Baker To Rays

    Yankees Release DJ LeMahieu

    Trevor Williams To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez

    Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff

    Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Bobby Jenks Passes Away

    Braves Release Alex Verdugo

    Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline

    Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim

    Yankees Have Shown Interest In Ryan McMahon

    Recent

    Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    Guardians Place Paul Sewald On Injured List

    Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson

    Poll: Who Will Win The 2025 All-Star Game?

    The Opener: All-Star Game, Trade Season, MLBTR Chat

    Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

    Jim Clancy Passes Away

    Grant Hartwig Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

    Pirates Release Matt Gorski

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Alex Bregman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version