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Kyle Hendricks

Cubs Notes: Bullpen, Happ, Hendricks

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The Cubs remain open to adding a left-handed reliever, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, though it’s not a lock that they’ll ultimately strike a deal. The Cubs are reluctant to surpass the $233MM luxury tax barrier, and an incentive-based deal for former All-Star Zack Britton could push them past that point if he’s healthy and effective. Chicago has been “monitoring” Mike Minor as well, per the report, though his struggles in recent seasons are an understandable red flag.

President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer said just last week that he “wouldn’t be shocked” to see another reliever come into camp, although the Cubs saw a pair of options come off the board over the weekend when Will Smith signed with the Rangers and Brad Hand inked a deal with the Rockies. Chicago currently sits with a projected $225MM luxury tax figure, placing them $8MM shy of penalization. Even if a deal with Britton or Minor doesn’t come to fruition, that doesn’t necessarily close the book on the Cubs making any kind of addition. Many non-roster veterans throughout the league have opt-out provisions they could trigger if told they’re not making their current organization’s roster, and there will surely be a number of arms being designated for assignment and/or placed on waivers later this month as teams set their Opening Day rosters.

More from Wrigley…

  • Left fielder Ian Happ is slated to reach free agency following the 2023 season and could be positioned as one of the top names on the market with another big season in 2023, but he tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that his hope is to remain with the Cubs long-term. “It would be weird to wear another jersey,” says Happ, whom the Cubs selected with the ninth overall draft pick back in 2015. “I would love to stay here and I would love to be a part of the next great Cubs team, but we’ll see.” In addition to Happ, next year’s outfield market is slated to include Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo and perhaps Michael Conforto, depending on his player option. In general, the 2023-24 class will be a lighter group than this past offseason, and that’s especially true now that Rafael Devers and Manny Machado have foregone trips to the open market in favor of extensions. Happ could do the same, of course, but the Cubs didn’t sign any of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras to extensions before they reached six years of service time (and thus qualified as free agents). Based on Happ’s comments, he’ll at least be open to it if they want to try to change that trend with him this spring.
  • Kyle Hendricks threw a bullpen session on Monday, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. That marks the first full-strength, max-effort bullpen session for the veteran right-hander since last July, when he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder. (Hendricks previously threw off a mound in late February and earlier this month but did not do so at full intensity.) The plan for Hendricks is to throw 10 bullpen sessions of this nature before he progresses to facing hitters. Hendricks will open the season on the 15-day injured list, and he’s not likely to complete that slate of 10 bullpen sessions until mid-April. From there, he’d need to throw live batting practice before progressing to a minor league rehab assignment, where he’d surely need multiple starts to build up. The 33-year-old Hendricks was one of the NL’s most durable and consistently effective starters from 2015-20, pitching to a 3.17 ERA over the life of 967 innings in that time. He’s stumbled to a 4.78 ERA in 48 starts over the past two seasons, however, as he’s become increasingly homer-prone. Hendricks is entering the final guaranteed season of a four-year, $55MM contract, though the Cubs hold a net $14.5MM decision on him for the 2024 campaign ($16MM option with a $1.5MM buyout).

Latest On Kyle Hendricks’ Recovery

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Veteran Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is a little more than a month behind the rest of the pitchers in camp, and is hoping to make minor league rehab starts sometime in May, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.

Hendricks stepped on a mound for the first time since a July 5 injury ended his season on Friday, tossing around ten pitches in a bullpen session. That was slightly ahead of schedule, as Hendricks hadn’t initially been slated to return to a mound until March 1 as he recovers from a capsular tear in his shoulder. That he’s one week ahead of his schedule is promising, but he’s still significantly behind the rest of the pitchers in camp, and that means the Cubs look set to be without Hendricks for a number of weeks to begin the season.

A return to rehab stints in May would put seemingly put Hendricks in a position to rejoin Chicago’s rotation sometime later in that month or in early June. The Cubs look reasonably well positioned to absorb the absence of Hendricks early in the season, with Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly holding down four of the spots. It should mean Adrian Sampson will get the opportunity to build off his impressive 19-start run in 2022 and round out the Cubs’ opening day rotation. Sampson pitched to a 3.11 ERA last season, and has a 3.03 ERA over 139 2/3 innings for the Cubs between 2021-22. His previous 153 innings for Seattle and Texas between 2016-19 had resulted in a 5.71 ERA.

Hendricks will surely land on the injured list to start the season, but his progress over the next month should determine whether that’s a trip to the 60-day IL or not. Teams can put players on the 60-day IL again now, which would free up a spot on the 40-man roster, but the 60-day clock would only begin from March 30 (opening day), so a team would want to be certain a player is going to be unavailable until at least the end of May before making that move.

Hendricks is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract and is owed $14MM in 2023. There’s also a vesting $16MM option for 2024 that comes with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks, 33, has seen a bit of decline in recent years, working to a 4.78 ERA over 48 starts over the past two seasons. That came on the heels of a number of quality campaigns for the Cubs, as Hendricks owned a 3.12 ERA over 174 previous starts between 2014-20.

Cubs Notes: Thompson, Alzolay, Hendricks, Hoerner

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Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay aren’t part of the competition to be the Cubs’ fifth starter, as manager David Ross told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that the two right-handers will be working out of the bullpen.  Thompson has pitched as a reliever for 38 of his 61 career games in the majors, with significantly more success out of the pen — the righty has a 1.95 ERA over 73 2/3 bullpen innings, as opposed to a 4.94 ERA over 94 2/3 frames as a starter.  Alzolay has started 27 of his 45 career games, but worked exclusively as a reliever in his limited action last year, as Alzolay missed most of 2022 recovering from a shoulder strain.

Thompson also missed close to a month last season due to lower back tightness, so health concerns might have also been some factor in the Cubs’ decision.  However, the team might simply be more excited by the idea of what Thompson or Alzolay could deliver as relief pitchers, particularly since the rotation has been bolstered by the addition of Jameson Taillon and the re-signing of Drew Smyly.  Chicago hasn’t spent much on the bullpen in recent years, preferring to add veterans on one-year deals (i.e. this winter’s signings of Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger) and seeing what is available in terms of in-house options.  Of course, this doesn’t mean that Thompson or Alzolay couldn’t still get at least some usage as a starter in 2023, or that the door is closed on either righty as a potential starting candidate down the road.

More from Wrigleyville….

  • Speaking of the starting rotation, Kyle Hendricks will return to his usual spot in the starting five when he is healthy, as the veteran continues to manage a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder.  Hendricks told Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that he is roughly a month behind in his usual offseason training routine, though he will throw off a mound in a loose bullpen session on Friday.  This puts Hendricks slightly ahead of his projected rehab schedule, as Hendricks was initially thinking he wouldn’t have any mound work until March 1.
  • Contract extensions haven’t been a big part of the Cubs’ business over the last three seasons, as the team tried to squeeze another title out of its 2016 championship core before pivoting into a rebuild.  Now that the Cubs are aiming to contend again in 2023, talks have taken place with Nico Hoerner about a possibly long-term deal, though the second baseman didn’t give reporters (such as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma or MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) or other reporters any updates about the status of the negotiations.  Hoerner doesn’t have any “hard deadline” on getting a deal complete, and that “we’ll just continue to work things through” while he is primarily focusing on his Spring Training prep.  As to his future in Chicago, Hoerner said “I love coming to work here every day.  There are so many boxes that are checked being a part of this organization.  They’ve done nothing but right by me.”  Hoerner has two remaining arbitration-eligible years remaining, and he is eligible for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Quick Hits: Colas, Jimenez, White Sox, Giants, Hendricks, Cubs

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“Oscar Colas is going to be given every opportunity to” become an everyday right fielder, White Sox manager Pedro Grifol said in a recent interview on 670 The Score’s Inside The Clubhouse show (partial transcript here).  This doesn’t mean that Colas has a clear path to a starting job, however, as Grifol said Gavin Sheets, Jake Marisnick, Leury Garcia, and even Eloy Jimenez will also be competing for time in right field.  In Jimenez’s case, he’ll still be Chicago’s primary DH, but Grifol said Jimenez could appear in right field “a day or two a week if possible and keeping him athletic and keeping him working on the defensive side, because I know that helps on the offensive side as well.”

Given Jimenez’s injury history and his subpar glovework as a left fielder, it is clear he’ll be taking a back seat on the outfield depth chart, as the Sox would love to see Colas emerge at the big league level.  A highly-touted signing out of Cuba, Colas didn’t play anywhere in 2020-21 but hit .314/.371/.524 with 23 homers over 526 combined plate appearances with three different White Sox affiliates.  That includes only a seven-game stint at Triple-A, but the White Sox seem confident that Colas will be ready for the majors possibly as soon as Opening Day.

More from around baseball…

  • With contract opt-outs becoming more of a trend around the league, the Giants are no exception, as NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic notes that most of the club’s biggest offseason moves contain the potential for early exits.  Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea can all opt out of their two-year deals next winter, while Mitch Haniger can opt out of his three-year contract following the 2024 season.  “It just so happens that a lot of players that we’ve talked to feel like they have another level of performance in them,” president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said, downplaying the idea that the Giants are focusing only on shorter-term candidates.  “I think that speaks to players believing in our development and our ability to help guys maximize their abilities.  They want to come here and get another bite at the apple, and a lot of times that’s in our best interests, too, for players to be motivated along those lines and to be better.”  San Francisco has had a lot of success in finding bounce-back players during Zaidi’s tenure, and it isn’t as though the club has shied away from longer-term offers, given what the Giants were prepared to give Carlos Correa or Aaron Judge.  However, Pavlovic notes the negatives of this strategy, including how the opt-out tends to push the risk onto the team’s side of a contract, and also how even in the best-case scenario of a player performing well, an opt-out leaves the Giants churning the roster yet again to fill that hole.
  • 2023 is the last guaranteed year of Kyle Hendricks’ contract, as the Cubs hold a $16MM club option (with a $1.5MM buyout) on the veteran righty’s services for the 2024 season.  After two underwhelming years and an injury-shortened 2022 campaign, Hendricks doesn’t look at the moment like a good bet to get that option exercised, but he is confident that he has a rebound coming.  “I just want to get healthy and go in and (contribute)….By doing that — if I’m able to be who I am — then I think things will end up taking care of themselves after the season,” Hendricks told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  “Obviously, the goal would be to stay here.  I’ve loved everything about it.  I would love to ride it out as long as I possibly can.”  Hendricks had some solid-to-excellent numbers with Chicago from 2014-20, and will be 34 on Opening Day 2024, so on paper it isn’t too late for the right-hander to have a bit of a revival.  A big portion of Hendricks’ offseason work has included learning how to rehab and manage the capsular tear in his right shoulder, and his type of injury doesn’t usually require surgery.  If Hendricks did regain any of his old form next season, the Cubs would face an interesting $14.5MM decision, and the chips might fall in Hendricks’ favor given the high price of starting pitching around the league.

Quick Hits: Wacha, Hendricks, Profar

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The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.

Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).

Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.

The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.

Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
  • The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.

Pitching Notes: Hendricks, Heuer, King

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The Cubs are hoping to be able to have veteran starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks ready for opening day, but it seems the team won’t be rushing him back, according to a report from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks ended the season on the injured list rehabbing a capsular tear in his shoulder that limited him to just 84 innings in 2022.

Per reports at the end of October, Hendricks was a bit behind in his throwing schedule, having hoped to start playing catch by the end of the 2022 season. Instead, that target was shifted to November.

Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy provided an update to Lee, saying Hendricks is on a regimented throwing program and is playing catch off flat ground. Obviously there’s still a fair bit of rehab to go between that and pitching in baseball games, but it seems the Cubs are still hopeful he can be a part of the opening day roster.

“I’m so overly focused on getting Kyle back to being the best version of himself and not rushing it, not pushing it. We all know what Kyle can do when he feels great, when he’s healthy, when he’s locked in,” Hottovy told Lee.

The 16 starts Hendricks made in 2022 was the fewest he’d made in a season since 2014 (excluding the 2020 campaign). While his output has dropped back a bit in recent years, he’s still been a valuable starter over the past few seasons for Chicago, working to a 4.78 ERA over 265 1/3 innings over 2021-22.

The Cubs currently have him penciled into a rotation that also features veterans Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Left-hander Justin Steele took a step forward in 2022 and looks set to be the fifth option in that group. That makes for a solid five-man rotation, yet the Cubs have some good options should Hendricks not be ready for the season as well. Adrian Sampson had some success in 19 starts last season, and could get a look, while Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all young options who’ve done well in their brief time in the majors.

In the bullpen, the Cubs are counting on the return of Codi Heuer at some stage. Heuer had Tommy John surgery in spring training last year, but Lee’s reports he remains on track for a return to the mound sometime in late-June or early-July. After coming over to the Cubs in a cross-town trade with the White Sox that included Nick Madrigal and Craig Kimbrel, Heuer tossed 28 2/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in relief. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but induces a lot of soft contact and with a strong Cubs defense behind him could do well. Heuer is projected for a modest raise to $800K through his first year of arbitration (courtesy of Matt Swartz’ projections) and is under team control for another three seasons.

Sticking with injured relievers, the Yankees bullpen was dealt a significant blow when Michael King went down with a fractured elbow. King had tossed 51 innings of 2.29 ERA ball, and had blossomed into a dominant multi-inning reliever for the Yankees. Chris Kirscher of The Athletic reports that King may not be ready for opening day, calling it a “tad optimistic” to think he’ll be up to speed for the first game of the season. In any event, Kirschner adds that King has begun his throwing program and is “progressing well”, so there doesn’t seem to be much concern that King is at risk of any major setback in his recovery.

Kyle Hendricks Hasn’t Started Throwing; Still On Track For Spring Training

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Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has still not begun throwing in his recovery from a mid-season capsular tear in his shoulder, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports. While the delay in his recovery is enough to cause some concern, Wittenmyer notes that there’s not yet reason to think that Hendricks won’t be ready for spring training. Hendricks was originally due to resume playing catch at the end of the season, but the plan is now to start that in November.

Hendricks posted a 4.80 ERA across 16 starts this season before going down with injury. Hendricks’ HardHit% soared in 2022, standing at 38.8%, well above his second highest mark of 33%, which occurred last season. As one would expect, that translated into a higher home run rate and Hendricks gave up almost one per start this season. It’s the second straight season that’s been the case, as Hendricks suffered from a lift in home runs on the way to a 4.77 ERA across 32 starts in 2021. Prior to that, Hendricks was an incredibly reliable arm for the Cubs, regularly hitting 30 starts and posting ERAs in the mid-to-lower threes.

While Hendricks has experienced some decline in recent years, he’s still a much-needed workhorse for the Cubs rotation. They’ll have veteran Marcus Stroman back next year as well as the impressive Justin Steele. Beyond that, Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski all showed varying degrees of promise to suggest they’ll feature in the rotation next season, but none can be reasonably pencilled in to make 30 starts. Steele, too, is no sure thing workload-wise having pitched a career high 119 innings in 2022, though the promise he showed in pitching to a 3.18 ERA with the peripherals to match suggest the Cubs will certainly be looking to get big innings out of him.

The uncertainty over Hendricks’ immediate future could provide further motivation for the Cubs to be active in the starting pitcher market this winter. A competitive Cubs team in 2023 probably already needed an arm or two in the rotation, and if Hendricks’ recovery is set back any further that need will only increase. Hendricks is owed $14MM in 2023, and has a $16MM team option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.

Cubs Select Luke Farrell

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AUGUST 24: Chicago has formally selected Farrell’s contract, relays Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter). Hendricks, who is unlikely to pitch again this season after revealing the presence of a small capsule tear in his throwing shoulder, was indeed transferred to the 60-day IL to create the 40-man roster spot. Chicago also placed southpaw Steven Brault on the 15-day IL with a should strain, recalled reliever Kervin Castro from Iowa, optioned Anderson Espinoza and sent Padilla back to Triple-A after yesterday’s doubleheader.

AUGUST 23: The Cubs are adding right-hander Luke Farrell to the big league roster before tomorrow evening’s game against the Cardinals, manager David Ross told reporters (including Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago). He’ll get the start for the contest.

It’ll be the first MLB outing of the season for Farrell, who signed a minor league deal in April. He’s spent the entire season at Triple-A Iowa, starting 11 of his 17 outings. Over 59 innings, Farrell has a 5.03 ERA with a below-average 19% strikeout rate and a higher than average 10.9% walk percentage. It’s the first extended rotation stretch for the Northwestern product since 2018, also a stint in the Chicago farm system.

Farrell has come out of the bullpen for 58 of his 63 big league outings, working 87 2/3 innings between the Royals, Reds, Cubs, Rangers and Twins. He owns a 4.93 ERA at the major league level, including a 4.74 mark in 20 outings with Minnesota last season. Farrell typically runs solid swing-and-miss rates, but he’s had spotty control and given up quite a few home runs at the major league level.

The Cubs will need to formally select Farrell’s contract tomorrow. He’ll be the third pitcher added to the 40-man roster in two days, as Chicago also brought up Javier Assad and Nicholas Padilla today. Those transactions brought the 40-man to full capacity, but the Cubs could easily transfer either Kyle Hendricks or Wade Miley to the 60-day injured list to free a spot.

Kyle Hendricks Diagnosed With Capsular Tear In Shoulder

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Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks has been dealing with shoulder discomfort for more than a month, and while initial MRIs did not reveal any structural damage, a newer MRI and second opinion revealed a capsular tear, Hendricks explained to reporters yesterday (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). While capsule tears are often ominous injuries with quite lengthy recovery periods, Hendricks’ tear is relatively small and is not expected to require surgery.

It was already known that Hendricks would not pitch again in 2022, but the diagnosis of the tear obviously adds some additional uncertainty to his long-term outlook. For now, he’ll go through a strengthening program and set his focus on being ready for the 2023 season — the final guaranteed season in a four-year, $55.5MM contract. The Cubs hold a $16MM club option for a fifth season, which comes with a $1.5MM buyout.

From 2016-20, Hendricks was one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the National League, logging a combined 3.00 ERA with a 21.1% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.3% walk rate in 787 innings. Hendricks was one of the sport’s most durable arms in that time, requiring only a six-week IL stay in 2017 due to tendinitis in his pitching hand and a minimal 10-day stay in 2019 due to inflammation in his right shoulder.

Since that outstanding half-decade peak, however, Hendricks’ results have tumbled rather quickly. He made 32 starts in 2021 but logged a disappointing 4.77 ERA that was far and away the worst of his career. This year’s 4.80 mark through his first 16 starts was a near identical number. Hendricks, after averaging just 0.89 homers per nine innings pitched through the first seven seasons of his career, has surrendered an average of 1.56 long balls per nine frames since Opening Day 2021. His 17.3% strikeout rate is down nearly four percentage points from that previously mentioned peak, and his 6% walk rate, while still south of the 7.6% league average among starters, is up slightly from Hendricks’ best days as well.

The hope for the Cubs, of course, is that a healthier Hendricks can return to form and rejoin a rotation that also includes veteran Marcus Stroman and 27-year-olds Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Right-hander Adrian Sampson, 30, has been solid through 10 starts as well. Former top prospect Adbert Alzolay, who started 21 games for the Cubs last year, has missed the entire 2022 season thus far due to a lat strain. However, he embarked on a minor league rehab assignment just yesterday and could yet return before the end of the year.

The extent to which Hendricks progresses from the tear between now and the onset of free agency will, on some level, inform the Cubs’ approach to addressing their pitching staff over the winter. Solid as Steele (3.25 ERA, 3.75 SIERA in 113 2/3 innings) and Thompson (3.97 ERA, 4.21 SIERA, 104 2/3 innings), there’ll still be a need to bring in some reinforcements. Owner Tom Ricketts recently vowed to be “very active” in free agency, although those comments perhaps deliberately stopped short of forecasting an aggressive pursuit of top-tier free agents.

Cubs starters this season rank 21st in the Majors in ERA (4.33), 24th in FIP (4.41) and 20th in SIERA (4.23). They’re also 19th in strikeout rate (20.4%) but have the game’s 10th-highest walk rate (8%). Left-handers Drew Smyly and Wade Miley are both ticketed for free agency this winter. Smyly does have a mutual option on his one-year contract, but it’s quite rare for both sides of a mutual option to be exercised and Smyly has thrown well enough that he could seek a larger guarantee or perhaps a multi-year deal on the open market.

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