TODAY: Manny Machado told reporters on Monday (including Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that elbow surgery is now the likely course of action. While he did not say exactly when he plans to have the procedure, he did suggest it could be before the end of the season. It’s highly possible the six-time All-Star is waiting until the Padres are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention to make a final decision. Regardless of when (or if) he eventually undergoes surgery, the third baseman hopes he’ll be back on the field for spring training next year.
SEPTEMBER 9: The Padres remain on the outer fringes of the NL wild card race, as San Diego is seven games behind the Diamondbacks for the final wild card berth, and the Marlins, Reds, and Giants are all sandwiched between Arizona and San Diego in the standings. Barring a miraculous September surge, it looks like it’s just a matter of time before the Padres are eliminated from the playoff race, which could also bring an early end to Manny Machado’s season.
According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, it is possible Machado might be shut down due to recurring elbow problems, specifically the type of inflammation best known as “tennis elbow.” This is the second straight season that Machado has dealt with the injury, and he could opt for an offseason surgery that shouldn’t impact his readiness for the start of Spring Training.
While tennis elbow doesn’t usually require surgery, it might be necessary to finally solve an injury that has been bothering the third baseman for the better part of two years. “The effects recently are more frequent and severe,” Acee writes, noting that Machado has been limited to DH-only duty over his last seven games. Even in a hitting-only role, Acee hears that “there are certain swings that cause [Machado] a great deal of pain.”
The injury hasn’t resulted in any time on the injured list for Machado, though he did miss a couple of weeks earlier in the season due to a minor hand fracture. However, the lingering elbow problem could explain Machado’s relatively disappointing season, as he has hit .253/.317/.453 with 26 homers over 545 plate appearances. While still a 112 wRC+, it’s well below Machado’s standards, particularly in comparison to the 153 wRC+ he posted in 2022 while finishing second in NL MVP voting.
Machado’s performance has been one of many factors in a very disappointing season for the Padres, who are 67-75 despite one of the game’s highest payrolls and a +73 run differential. With a playoff berth looking like a longshot at best, there wouldn’t be much of a cost for the Padres in shutting down Machado and getting his rehab (whether involving a surgery or not) underway as quickly as possible to get a jump start on 2024.
Will Manny end up as a HOFer ?
I say yes
He’s already in the cry baby HOF.
At this point, I don’t see him as a HOF’er. He hasn’t played long enough to see if he can provide great offense and defense consistently for a long period of time. I wouldn’t put him up there with Brooksy or Schmidt, the standard for.modern day 3b men.
The average HOF 3B had 68.4 career WAR, a 43.1 7yr-peak WAR, and a 5.1 WAR/162.
Schmidt crushed all those numbers and put up the highest totals of any 3B ever. 106.8 career WAR. 58.8 7yr-peak WAR. 7.2 WAR/162
Machado has a 54.7 WAR as of today, a 42.5 7yr peak, and a 5.6 WAR/162. 2-3 more seasons and he is a lock for the HOF.
At this point in his career Machado compares favorably to Adrian Beltre.
websoulsurfer: The only thing I got out of that is: Schmidt is one of the best 3bmen ever: And Machado compares favorably to Adrian Beltre. See? I did all that without all those useless numbers. To amuse yourself, look up Pie Traynor, bb first great 3b man, and see if you think he’s better than Machado.
So what you are saying avenger is you don’t understand the numbers. Ok Glad to have that cleared up.
Beltre is a HOFer and Machado will be too. There. Is that easy enough for you to understand?
Pie Traynor was not even the best 3B of his ERA. That would be Joe Sewell. Other than BA he did nothing exceptionally well. He had no power. He was not considered a great defensive player. His OPS and OPS+ were far below Machado. He played in an era when many of the best players were not allowed to play at all. I would say that Machado is far and away a better player.
I have a 1922 American Caramel Harold (Pie) Traynor card It’s a PSA 8. NM-MT. I think its the only PSA 8 out there. I would let it go for $3500. .
Since you seem to really think he was great, let me know if you want to buy it.
The numbers are what show you that he compares favorably. Without them, you don’t know that.
That’s some company to have
avenger
“I don’t understand numbers”
Also avenger: look up the numbers to compare a player who played LITERALLY 100 YEARS AGO.
What happened to people’s brains?
In what universe is Beltre also not one of the best third baseman ever? Have you looked at his body of work?
When he retired, he was still a league average hitter. For only the final year in the last 9 of his career. He easily could have held on and had 3k hits and 500 homers (23 short). But he didn’t and choose to retire while he was still productive.
Being compared to Beltre bodes well to one’s HOF chances. Machado has a very good shot.
outinleftfield and websoulsurfer are the same guy avenger.
Just look at Jimmy Piersall.
He’s too lean to be a heifer but give him 40 lbs and declining range maybe he Miggy
Lol @ Dumpster
if harold blaines is a hof and using that math any above avg player is a hof. so using the baines rule many is already a hof
Harold was a great great hitter.
Most of you really under rate his career skill set
Baines was above league average for a long time. Never heard of the guy until after he got thrown into the hof the same year actually legitimately great hitter Edgar Martinez went in.
Harold Baines underrated as a hitter. Wade Boggs Mr 3000 overrated. Unless you’re compiling a Hall of Singles
Manny has 16 more WAR already than Harold did for 21 year career.
I know some people aren’t fond of WAR and it isn’t a good measure for comparing a pitcher against a regular for sure but when comparing 2 players side by side, it is at least useful because they each had similar opportunities to earn value.
Yeah, Manny moves to 1b or DH in a few years and that eliminates some but hey, he is already miles ahead.
54-38. WOW
I like that idea. Then maybe Rose will finally into one kind of HOF.
Fortunately got in on his merits, before analytics crept into the minds of some fans who believe they can tell you what a player will do before he steps in the batter’s box.
Avenger, you say he got in on his merits yet per BR, he only lead 1 statistical category EVER in 21 years-slg in 1984.
Highest year of MVP voting was 9th and only had votes in 4 years and none after 1985 and he played 16 more years after that.
I have to say in comparison to his contemporaries he didn’t seem to stand out.
He played a long time. He was a good hitter. He accumulated a fair amount of totals.
So did a lot of other guys that aren’t in.
Not trying to make a case but if I were it seems like he is out.
Longtime oming: I know stats are fun to look at. Unfortunately for number geeks, I SAW Baines play. That’s all I need to know to know he belongs in the Hall. Helto , however…
@Avenger65
I never saw baines play because I was a toddler (37 now) but my old man did and told me other than one year baines wasn’t anyone special he was just avg. with looking at traditional stats and advanced stats he’s nothing special. So my original point stands if baines is a hof’er then so is every mediocre player then
Literally no one legitimately into analytics believes that
Ok we will open a Hall of People who Impressed avenger65 and he can be the first one in
I saw Baines play too. He was mediocre for a very long time.
The stats show that clearly. That is why you look the stats if you actually want to know what really happened.
Keep on with your delusion that your eyes are enough.
Rose will never make the HOF, that ship has sailed
Boggs was not just a singles hitter. He was an on-base machine – 27th all-time at .414 and 24th all-time in doubles. 91 WAR
Brodie… odd that Baines only hit more than 29 doubles 2x in career and never hit 30 homers
@thickiedon
And somehow he’s a hof, I’m sorry no matter how you spin it he’s not a hof. Tbh who’s next mike leak
Absolutely. He’s got a decent shot at 3,000 hits, and 500 hrs…plus, if not for Arenado, he’d have about 7-8 gold gloves. Barring a huge decline, he definitely gets in.
Hope Manny goes in as a O. Always went all out with his insane offseason workouts. Sure he got a bad rap for being surly early but he’s come into his own as a vet leader. And it’s not like Eddie Murray or Cal didn’t have their detractors. Both now regarded as sage vets
@Dumpster Assuming he plays out his contract (or close to it), you’d have to assume he goes in as a Padre. That’d be what..14-15yrs with them?
Goes in where? The only way he gets into the Hall is if it’s in a year where there are nobody worthy of being enshrined and the media, in their false belief that SOMEONE has to get in every year, will vote for someone who is not the equal of legit HOF’ers at the same position
The average HOF 3B had 68.4 career WAR, a 43.1 7yr-peak WAR, and a 5.1 WAR/162.
Machado has a 54.7 WAR as of today, a 42.5 7yr peak, and a 5.6 WAR/162. 2-3 more seasons and he is a lock for the HOF.
At this point in his career Machado compares favorably to Adrian Beltre. Machado cruises in as a first ballot HOF if he continues to play 3B.
If he moves to 1B or DH within the next 3-4 years then he is probably still a first ballot HOF, just not one with 90+ percent of the ballot.
You’re right – he’ll be considered a Padre. Just wishful thinking for the sad sack os fans- esp when Mussina- though not hall bound – was considered a Yankee star despite coming up with the Os
Avenger so salty as usual- Manny easily meets the test as one of the perennial best and his counting stats should continue to accumulate. Pretty clear that he and Bryce will be on a parallel track
First round: Before this season Machado had 1,721 hits and 309 HR’s. I’d say 3000/500 are out of reach.
Avenger-He’s only 30 years old, and even in down seasons tends to hit close to 30 hrs. If he averages 145 hits and 25 hrs over the next 8yrs, he’s there..PS-His usual season is about 165 hits, and 28 hrs or so..if you remove the shortened 2020 season. He’s got a great shot.
First round: Ye, but you’re forgetting about oblique strains, forearm tightness, tight hammies, injured pinkies, foul balls off knees, ankles, feet,
First round: Ye, but you’re forgetting about oblique strains, forearm tightness, tight hammies, injured pinkies, foul balls off knees, ankles, feet, tripping over first base. Any one of those afflictions that seems to put a player on the 60-day IL could factor into a player’s ability to reach lofty – if unrealistic – career goals. How do you think Pujols hit 700+/3000+ or Cabrera 500+/3100+? Think about it.
@avenger65
You know both players you mentioned spent a lot of time on the dl, and not only just at the end
2013 & 14 seasons both ended early because of injuries to both knees with each requiring surgery. Oof.
I have to believe you’re trolling everyone. Every single one of your posts is a stereotypically bad take.
Absolutely. He’s got signature moments contrary to what some of these folks below are saying (smashing that bomb in the playoffs off of Kershaw in the first inning was awesome), a ton of WAR, a few top 5 MVP finishes and many more votes, a ton of contract runway in front of him to hit some serious milestones. I think he’s a lock – one of the most fun and consistent players of our current generation. All the drama around his lack of ‘hustle’ is such BS. The man has made more highlight reel freak of nature sacrifice the body plays at 3rd than anyone not named Arenado for the past decade. He’s a stud for sure. I think this year will be an aberration offensively until he gets into a real decline in the later years of the contract.
Good vibes must be fun at parties- b/w parties at casa good vibes fun to attend
@ good
Many is the only 3b I consider on par with Nolan. Tbh last year I thought manny was going to win mvp because the vote was going to be split between goldy and Nolan.
If he can keep playing, yes.
Machado never won a MVP award or won a WS or even played in one. He did lead the league in grounding into double plays (24) in 2019 and sacrifice flies (11) in 2021. Maybe it’s just me, but I hardly think that’s enough to get into the Hall.
eh, you could say that about a lot of HoFers
4 top 5 finishes in MVP balloting..and though he’s having an off year this year, he’s most likely got 3-5 yrs of his prime left.
@avenger65 Manny played in the WS in 2018.
First round: 4th place doesn’t win you the MVP.
Let’s see how he plays over the next 5 years. At this point, he probably has a 75% chance.
I feel like Machado needs either 3000 hits or at least 500 HR’s to get in, Beltre got the former and finished just shy of the latter. Given his age and relative durability it’s not impossible to imagine him getting either or both for that matter
Gets either and it’s a lock. Gets close on both then he still gets in at least eventually like the crimedog
i would say he has a great shot, but just like every other player that had hof potential and never made it. can he stay healthy and play at a high enough level to get in those are the big questions. i will say if he continues at minimum this year’s production or better i can see him in the hall.
For me, playing in important, relevant games really elevates your chances. Manny’s put up decent numbers but needs a “signature” moment or two, to be elevated to HOF status. HOF is individual accomplishments, but is also a team award in my honest opinion.
Machado has played 12 seasons. He is under contract for 10 more! He is 1279 hits shy of 3000. 309 career HRs. Even if he put up some stinker years later in his career, he is well on his way to the HOF. He needs to avoid injuries over the next decade.
@hemlock
sounds like we’re on the same page
@mlb fan
i also agree if manny can get a few key moments, like albert’s hr of lidge in game 5 of the 05 nlcs, or his 4 hr in the 11 ws. big moments in big games do heavily weigh in the minds of the writers
More Machado info—
6 all-stars
1 silver slugger (more than Votto)
2 Gold Gloves
0 MVPs (finishes of 2,3,4,5,9,18)
125 OPS+ career
.828 OPS career
Some of his competition:
Adrian Beltre, Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, Evan Longoria, Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez
Is he better than those players? They’re all at different points in their careers so the comparison is difficult. But once they all retire, those are the names he will be compared to. Barring injuries or severe performance drop-offs or unexpected things and such.
He’s better than Chapman for sure and Longoria as well. Riley isn’t even 8n the conversation for HOF right now. Beltre and Arenado are HOF guys and Ramirez is heading that way…
Beltre is a lock. I think by the time it’s all said and done of the list above, it’ll probably be Arenado and Machado next making it in,. Chapman and Longoria are a no from me. Riley is about 5-10 years behind and not on the same level fielding. I’d bet against it but he’s fun to watch now. I think J-Ram and Manny both make it in but if injury saps the J-Rams speed and impacts Manny’s bat like it seems to have done this year going forward I could see both of them narrowly missing it or needing some help to get in.
MLB All-Time Gold Gloves
Multiple winners at 3B
I bolded the players from Machado’s era. These tell only a part of the story for a 3B’s HOF chances.
3B
Brooks Robinson (16)
Nolan Arenado (10)
Mike Schmidt (10)
Scott Rolen (8)
Buddy Bell (6)
Eric Chavez (6)
Robin Ventura (6)
Adrián Beltré (5)
Ken Boyer (5)
Doug Rader (5)
Ron Santo (5)
Gary Gaetti (4)
Matt Williams (4)
Ken Caminiti (3)
Matt Chapman (3)
Evan Longoria (3)
Frank Malzone (3)
Terry Pendleton (3)
Tim Wallach (3)
Wade Boggs (2)
Manny Machado (2)
Graig Nettles (2)
David Wright (2)
Machado only has 2 because or Arenado. He could easily have 6-8, as those two are in a league of their own in the NL.
Fangraphs (say what you want about them) has him 2nd in MLB/NL defense this year. No, he’s far ahead of Arenado but behind Ke’Bryan Hayes
Source:
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=3b&sta…
That means, in the eyes of the media, Arenado is a better 3b man defensively. Machado fans can whine about it, but don’t blame Arenado for winning all those gold gloves. Blame Machado for not being able to play at Arenado’s level.
Why would you blame Machado for anything? He was the 2nd best 3B the last 12 years while playing 4 seasons at shortstop. That still means he was better than the other 3862 guys that played at least one full season at the position over that time period.
Would we blame Arenado for not being good enough to play shortstop? OF course not.
websoulsurfer: That’s the problem with writing. It’s hard to let people know what you mean. I was simply pointing out that the whole thing is subjective, that these awards are given out by the media based on, this guy didn’t’t give me the answers I needed for my pre-written article, or I don’t like the way he wears his hat and other things like that. Of course Arenado deserved a Gold Glove last year. So did Machado. For reasons known only to them, the voters gave it to Arenado. Machado can’t do much more to prove he’s also worthy of the award.
Very true. Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate it.
For what it’s worth Nolan and many have been battling out who is the better 3bmen. Why do we have to argue this fact, both players are the best 3b in all of mlb, just because one wins award one year and the other next means either or trash
Blame Machado for not being able to play at Arenado’s level.
========================
1-Arenado is a great fielder, so there is no negative attached to losing out to him. I liken it to Reggie Smith only winning one GG because he had the misfortune of playing the same position as Paul Blair.
2-The days of writers relying solely on GGs is likely over. There are a ton of stats out there supporting Machado’s defense.
3-Machado already has one foot in the HOF. Barring a catastrophic injury, or PEDs, an arrest, etc., This conversation is kind of pointless.
One heckavu stupid conversation, imo. There are always players that are great fielders, that unfortunately get stuck behind other great fielders. But some folks think that just because you are **only** the 2nd best fielder, you aren’t anything.
Crazy conversation.
In the end, conservatively speaking, meaning figuring average playing time at each age and average decline for his caliber, Machado will likely have over 2,750 hits, over 470 hr, over 1400 r, 1500 rbi, and around 70 WAR. He’s a hall of famer.
Based on average age regression for ages 31-35 and then for ages 36-40 Machado should finish around 3070-3100 hits, 475-480 HR, and 72-80 WAR depending on when he transitions from.3B to 1B/DH.
He is a no doubt HOF if he stays healthy at the averages for the ages he will be playing at. If he reaches 500 HR, he will not only be a 1st ballot HOF, but he will also be above 90% of the voting.
Manny is also one of the best fielding 3b ever , up there with the best Hoovers
Impressive he has managed to hit .264/.351/.524 since July 1st popping 17 HR’s in those 60 games despite the elbow issues.
With his penchant for playing 150+ games year in and year out, he seems like a good bet to reach that rare 3000 hit & 500 homer class. He is 2nd in mlb with 1282 games played since 2015, 13 games behind Goldy. The only player to hit more bombs since then is his fellow 3b, Nolan Arenado.
Add to the fact that he’s been one of the better defensive 3b in the game only further adds to his HOF case. Being a top-10 all time 3b is a reasonable, maybe even likely outcome at this point.
Machado is almost a lock. Writers will remember his cheap shot against Pedroia, and the he ran a double into a single in the playoffs, because he wanted to admire his 360-foot “HR”,
But barring significant injuries, he’ll wind up with 450+ HRs, 1500 runs & RBIs and maybe 70 bWAR.
What’s funny about the Pedroia slide is that it clearly wasnt intentional and it was in fact the Red Sox pitcher who was the goon by head hunting in revenge.
Not really. I guess you wouldn’t vote for him if handed a HOF ballot regardless of his final numbers.
If Machado’s declining years from 31 to 40 follow closely to the average regression rates, he will put up just over 80 bWAR. If he moves to DH permanently next year that would take 10 off that WAR total. He is at 54.7 bWAR now.
Using that same regression model.
Pretty close to 500 HR. About 470-480.
Around 3100 hits.
Those are HOF numbers.
No chance he moves to DH for at least a few more years. He’s still elite with the glove. Agree with everything else you said though.
i almost agree with you, but they might make him a permanent just to keep him healthy to stay in the lineup. his glove is easier to replace than his bat.
Over the last decade, there have been 2 guys better with the glove at 3B, Arenado and Chapman. The Padres might find another guy as good with the glove, but unless his elbow makes it impossible for him to play the position, why move him now or even soon?
on paper, Padres seemed like a lock for playoffs, and again they failed — seems like they should draw new plans.
League worst in games decided by 2 runs or less. 19-40.
Pythagorean winning percentage formula has them at 79-64 (1st WC).
Only team in MLB this year to have out scored their opponents and have a losing record.
Really close to breaking the all time record for highest run differential for a losing team – ALL TIME.
Longest winning streak – 3. I think the Royals had an 8 game win streak for comparison.
Extra innings – 0-13.
Oh and team ERA – 3rd overall.
It’s why you play the games of course but really, no explanation for why this team failed.
Talent is there – just not at the right time.
sure they have talent, but teams with less talent seem to have some fundamentals to make wins happen where Pads have big names that just do not come for them at the right time almost…but not enough. most of that run differential came through blow outs early in season – close WINS is what matters not just winning 13-1 games – when game tightens SD does not pull out a win.
Should have had the surgery months ago.
I’ve wondered if the feelings against Manny Machado stem from racism. It appears it does for three people here, unless you are liking your own posts.
Found the racist
Not here poop. My post was in response to another that has been removed.
No its because he’s a prima donna douchebag who dogs it when he’s unhappy.
lmao, how is this exclusive to LA?
It’s where I grew up so that’s my point of reference
Manny is a great player at the plate and in the field. He stands a legitimate chance at the HOF and, with durable consistency, a possible statue at Petco.
Most importantly, he is a good San Diego community member. While I am critical often and presently of San Diego Padres leadership and their many questionable contracts and trades, any deal with Manny is worth it to us.
The Xander contract is much worse than Manny’s contract.
He’s one year into the contract. How about a few more seasons before making an assessment.
Bogey got a cortisone shot in his wrist around the ASB and he has hit .314/.361/.487/.848 with a 128 OPS+ in the 2nd half. That is in line with his career numbers and the last few seasons. Maybe the Padres should have done that coming out of camp.
From my understanding, cortisone shots are kind of a last resort. You can only keep using prescribed steroids and masking symptoms for limited times per year. Otherwise, it’ll begin to directly cause cartilage damage.
.322/.367/.506/.874 and a 134 OPS+ in the 2nd half just a few days later. He is on fire. I think that is the Bogaerts the Padres were expecting to see all season.
That is exactly what the Padres expected when they signed him. I wonder if offseason surgery on that wrist is coming?
Only you and the Padres front office think they have a realistic chance for a wildcard spot.
Great posts and discussions on Manny and The HOF , which itself is a joke btw.
Ozzie Guillen was a slam dunk and he couldn’t hit a lick.
Mark Belanger should be in then.
A real hof should kick about 50 plus currently in.
Guillen is not in the HOF and doesn’t belong. 21 career WAR. 66 career OPS+.
Belanger had a better case as his defense was better. 41 career WAR. 68 career OPS+
Still not quite enough.
Let’s hope he doesn’t get “ring worm” on his way to recovery
That superteam didn’t last long. It’s time to blow it up and rebuild!
They can’t really “blow it up” though. Hader and Snell are going to sign elsewhere this offseason, but Machado, Tatis, Xander, Darvish and Cronenworth are all on basically immovable contracts.
They could trade Soto and Kim this offseason as 1 year rentals I guess, but aside from that it’s not like they can do a fire sale