As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Betts on crutches:
The Dodgers are facing an injury scare with superstar Mookie Betts, as Isaac Azout of Fish On First noted last night that the MVP candidate left loanDepot Park on crutches. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times echoed that report while also indicating that Betts underwent x-rays on his foot after fouling a pitch off of it earlier in the game. Those x-rays came back negative, with MLB.com’s Juan Toribio indicating that they were precautionary. Betts will be re-evaluated today.
With so little time left in the regular season, even a fairly short absence would impact both the NL MVP race and the Dodgers’ odds of catching the Braves for the top seed in the NL this postseason. Betts, teammate Freddie Freeman, and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. are the favorites in the Senior Circuit’s Most Valuable Player race. Betts trails only Shohei Ohtani in wins above replacement this year, per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, thanks to his sensational .314/.411/.609 batting line, 38 home runs and solid defense around the diamond (right field, second base, shortstop). Acuna is hitting .331/.411/.579 and is the first player to ever hit 30 home runs and steal 60 bases in the same season.
From a team vantage point, an absence of any note would be devastating for a Dodgers club that has leaned heavily on Betts and Freeman for offensive production throughout the season; the duo have combined for a whopping 14.7 fWAR this year, while the rest of L.A.’s 23 total position players used this season have combined for 15.0 fWAR.
2. Royals roster move incoming:
The Royals transferred lefty Daniel Lynch to the 60-day injured list yesterday and optioned infielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A yesterday, creating openings on both the 40-man and active roster. With a roster move necessary before tonight’s game in Toronto and 60-day IL moves typically followed by a corresponding 40-man addition, Kansas City seems likely add a player to the 40-man today. That could be an activation from the 60-day IL like right-hander Brad Keller, or it could be a contract selection of a player in the minors. Of course, it’s also possible that the club could leave the 40-man roster spot open and simply activate Nick Pratto from the 10-day IL to replace Beaty on the roster. Both Keller and Pratto have been on rehab assignments since August.
3. Means to be activated this weekend:
As noted on MLB.com, the Orioles intend to move to a six-man rotation upon the return left-hander John Means, whom Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun indicates will be activated off the 60-day injured list at some point this weekend. The Orioles have announced Kyle Bradish, Jack Flaherty, and Grayson Rodriguez as the starters for the club’s series in Boston this weekend, so it’s possible Means will pitch out of the bullpen as a long reliever rather than join the club’s rotation. Whatever role Means fills, he figures to help boost an Orioles pitching staff that recently lost closer Felix Bautista to injury and is looking to keep starters like Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson healthy ahead of the postseason.
I’ll be honest, I kind of forgot about John Means.
Curious to see how he does. I thought he was one of those SPs who’s stats suffered when the sticky substance ban happened?
Yeah, that tends to happen when a pitcher has TJS and his team plays well without him. That’s not to say they’re better without him, it just speaks to the Orioles’ continued improvement.
And they have the #1 rated kid in the minors, who supposedly rakes…..with a little improvement in starting and relief, they are going to be a AL East beast for the next several if all goes the way they want it……
We thought that way in Chicago and the Cubs peaked at two years. Schwaber was supposed to be the next big thing (as was Bryant).
Mookie has a WAR a whole game larger and the better offensive numbers. The obsession with stolen bases is bizarre
The obsession with WAR is bizarre.
WAR, though seemingly arcane to many of us, is an indicator of a player’s overall performance, whereas most stats only cover one facet like baserunning, hitting for power, or strikeouts.
I like WAR as a thumbnail of a player’s performance, but its relevance and importance can be and is often over-stated. It’s also somewhat arbitrary, in that the computations used are the opinions of a few people who give their own weights to the various stats, and we’re all supposed to just accept those weights as true.
Ok? Mookie has the highest OPS+ in the league and plays 2B and RF at a very high level. Acuna being flashy with stolen bases doesn’t automatically make him the MVP lmao. Mookie doesn’t need to steal second because he was more XBHs.
I was waiting for someone to mention OPS+. It’s also a derived “stat”. Nice little thumbnail, but it requires faith as well. I’m not saying Mookie isn’t MVP worthy (he is), just that there’s a lot more to being an MVP than having a high WAR or a few extra XBH’s. You’re just discounting SB’s because Mookie doesn’t have many. If he had 40 or 50, you’d be touting them.
WAR like it or not factors in stolen bases/base running. When you look at offensive categories Betts equals or beats out Acuna in all categories except for SBs. Betts is clearly the better defender and plays multiple positions, and what ultimately gives him the slight edge over Acuna. I may be a Dodger fan but that’s my unbiased take. Earlier in the season there were Dodger fans saying that Betts or even Freeman was the MVP over Acuna and I strongly disagreed. Now, you can clearly make a very strong case for Betts. Perhaps the last few weeks will clarify who is MVP.
But the computations don’t change. It’s not like someone is saying Betts is the better player so let me change the WAR computation so he’s the leader. It’s a big stat for MVP type of award. Obviously not all the WAR leaders win the award but 8.0 to 6.9 is a pretty big cushion.
What is more likely is that voters are biased one way or the other. In 2021, Soto had a 7.1 WAR and was beat out by Harper at 5.9. Tatis was also higher at 6.6. Harper had 55 less PAs versus Soto and had a big lead on OPS. What is clear is that you can’t really predict how voters vote. Certain years they latch on to a certain stat or two and vote that way. Perhaps it’s SBs this season and will vault Acuna to MVP. Defense is usually not a factor and why that may hurt Betts in the voting.
I could just as easily say that Acuna beats Betts in all offensive categories except XBH and slugging (which are the same thing). You say Mookie’s defense puts him over the top. I could say that Ronnie’s SB’s put him over the top. We’ll see what happens between now and October 1st.
Which is why every single team uses WAR but some don’t care about SB at all.
Defense matters equally as much as offense and WAR includes defense. A run saved is as valuable as a run created.
Anyone who doesn’t get that basic fact doesn’t understand baseball at all.
The holy grail of offensive stat is OPS, and Betts is at 1.020 versus 0.990. OPS+ goes to Betts. OBP is the same and Slugging is Betts. Sorry, should have said Betts equals or beats Acuna in the relevant stats, the ones that matter in today’s baseball analytics. And defensively it’s not close, Betts is superior and the gold glover.
Its called math, not opinion. Its based on what actually happened on the field.
Really sorry you don’t understand the math, but that only invalidates your opinion, not the stat.
Again. It’s based on math. Math that is obviously over your head.
Learn the game which means get your head out of 3rd grade and learn higher math.
OPS isn’t a Holy Grail of anything. It’s another thumbnail.
beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/9/18/9329763/separate-b…
Fully agree. Defense is not emphasized enough. That is the big reason between the discrepancy in WAR between Acuna and Betts. oWAR Betts is ahead 7.2 to 6.8. But dWAR Betts is at 0.8 and Acuna at -0.4.
So you like wRC+? Sure, Betts is at 174, Freeman at 165 and Acuna at 165. Olson at 155.
You like wOBA better? Ok, Betts is at 0.427 and Acuna is at 0.419.
OPS+ is well regarded as the best offensive stat. It adjusts for ballpark and always tracks with whoever the best hitter in the league is.
The 2 holy grail stats on offense are OPS+ and wRC+. The reason? They are park adjusted and league adjusted.
A 1.000 OPS in Coors is not equal to a 1.000 OPS in Kauffman or Petco.
If you think that SB’s are overblown, then just distill them into the other stats. Subtract the caught stealings from the number of hits, and add the SB’s to the number of doubles. Acuna’s batting average will still be higher, and his slugging percentage will be through the roof.
The obsession with personal accolades is also bizarre. There are so many social media posts arguing over Betts v Acuna, it’s actually hilarious. It’s almost like they would rather their favorite player win an MVP over a World Series. I’m sure either player would trade an MVP trophy for a ring. But, since we’re on the topic, You do realize how important it is to put yourself in scoring position via the SB? You act like it doesn’t mean much. A runner on 1st vs being on 2nd when a base hit scores a run is a big deal. I would’ve thought sabermetrics fans would’ve acknowledged that. The frontrunner for MVP has to be Acuna based on his speed and power, but I won’t be upset if Betts win it.
I don’t the obsession with WAR, a theoretical number, based on a weighted system that may not apply accurately to the current season. I have definite knowledge of what a stolen base is and the rarity of getting 60 of them is.
Rarity does not mean MVP. Stolen bases have also been devalued. If it was so important you’d see more players steal. Yes, due to new rule changes it is a much more important factor but still not like it was prior. 63 is a phenomenal accomplishment together with Acuna’s overall offensive stat, and perhaps one can make the argument that together that gives Acuna the edge on offense, but Betts is so much better and versatile on defense and why he should win. Not enough weight is placed on defense. It’s amazing that there is not enough focus on what Betts is doing this season on defense. To play 2B, which he hasn’t done much at the MLB level and to play it well.
Obviously, if you think WAR is theoretical you don’t understand baseball at all.
Its based on empirical facts. What actually happened on the field and how that contributed to a run scored or a run saved. How defense is calculated is different, fWAR now uses OAA which is the most accurate on the ball in play up to the initial catch and bWAR uses DRS which measures the entire defensive play even after the initial catch. Take your pick.
That your math ability is stuck in 3rd grade on simple multiplication and division is on you.
All teams use WAR. ALL of them. Every single one. Why? Because its the singular most accurate measure of a players total contribution to winning.
WAR is entirely derivative. It contains no hard facts.
Nice way to say that your math abilities are stuck in 3rd grade.
WAR is based on probability of scoring or saving a run. Its based on what actually happened on the field.
That you don’t understand it is totally your fault.
As I said, every single team places a very high value on it. That you don’t just shows why they are working in baseball and you are getting schooled on a thread about baseball.
Who is this replacement player that everyone is being compared to? What’s his name? Oh, he doesn’t exist? He’s just made up? How interesting.
I understand and appreciate WAR, but it’s only one tool. If Bill James had a problem with it, that’s good enough for me.
Obviously you neither understand nor appreciate WAR. Your comments are clear.
Go back to your little league understanding of baseball and leave conversation about MLB to the adults in the room.
Ad hominem attacks. How mature.
WAR is only really useful for comparing players who play the same position, and, only the same position.
Otherwise it’s apples to oranges as the weighting is not the same for all positions.
Mookie sees a WAR bump for his stats, yes, that’s including batting work, due to the ABs logged in the infield, as, those middle infielders are typically a lighter hitting bunch.
For that reason alone comparing Mookies WAR to Acuna’s is relatively meaningless.
Also, WAR is not precise. It needs to be seen as a range, not a point. A 2 WAR player maybe have performed better than a 3 WAR player or worse than a 1 WAR player.
From bRef:
How to Use WAR
The idea behind the WAR framework is that we want to know how much better a player is than a player that would typically be available to replace that player. We start by comparing the player to average in a variety of venues, then compare our theoretical replacement player to the average player and add the two results together.
There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework. We have taken the utmost care and study at each step in the process, and believe all of our choices are well reasoned and defensible. But WAR is necessarily an approximation and will never be as precise or accurate as one would like.
We present the WAR values with decimal places because this relates the WAR value back to the runs contributed (as one win is about ten runs), but you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive (especially when the defensive metrics are included).
One place I tend to feel WAR and OPS come up short is if you think of your true outcomes. Now, to ME, a player who hits more singles, and walks less, but has a equal .OBP as a result is more valuable. Why? When you walk, unless you’re displacing a man-on-base and moving him over, nothing else happens. But, on a single, a man on base can go 1st-3rd or 2nd-3rd, and, war doesn’t really capture that because you arent logging an RBI. But you set things up for the NEXT guy to hit a sac-fly or single in a run on his own, all while you get no credit in the formula that I’m aware of, other than the hit itself vs the walk itself.
There’s a lot of nuances to the game that war skips over.
I am going to guess the crutches for Betts was precautionary?
Let’s hope.
Betts fouled the pitch off his foot in the 1st inning, remained in the game. Stole a base, had two walks, was hit by a pitch and still ran around the bases fine and singled in the 7th. X-rays were negative, just some swelling. My guess Roberts gives him at least today off. really doesn’t seem like he’s hurt just sore.
14.7/15?! Does this destroy the idea that a couple of superstars can’t carry a contender?
You mean like Ohtani-Trout doing in the Angels?
No because this isn’t the NBA where a “big 3” is considered necessary to win. Baseball has always had players put up ridiculous numbers and more often than not they have no impact on team success. Aaron Judge set a new single season AL Home Run record last year and the Yankees were still swept by the Astros in the ALCS
That stat is a little simplified. Looking at the other 23 or 24 players also includes the bench guys and designated guys that provided negative WAR. The Dodgers are pretty top-heavy, but looking at each team’s top 10 or 12 guys would be a better measure than the entire position roster, imo.
Either Betts and Freeman are the exception that proves the rule or WAR is flawed/not meant to be used in this way?
Or you’re misinterpreting the statistic. Those players constitute 14.7/29.7 WAR, not 14.7/15
I think he used / as a comparative tool, not as a fraction.
X-rays came back negative. What about his MRI?
Probably has a hairline fracture. If I was a betting man I’d say his batting average in the playoffs dips to .212.
Hard to leave Dodger Stadium if you are at loanDepot park in Miami.
Acuna leads the league in barreled outs. Hard hit rate. Look at most of Acuna’s stats and it is just amazing. He is about to set the record for Atlanta in runs scored, stole bases, and a few more. He has more 450 plus homers than many teams. I love bettis and his defense is far superior and he is more versatile, no doubt. If bettis wins he deserves it. If you look at what Acuna is doing in this historic season. I believe he should win. Both are amazing. If you can even out the babip between the two—Acuna is flat out crushing then ball.
I agree, Acuña would get my pick for MVP, but if Mookie wins it, I would be okay with it. Really hoping Acuña gets to 40 homeruns, and maybe 70 stolen bases, that would really be even more historic than what is already one of the best offensive seasons in baseball. 30/60 is already awesome, I can’t believe that none of the greats before him hadn’t done it.
Rickey Henderson came closest twice. In 1986 with the Yankees Rickey hit 28 HR’s and stole 87 bases and in 1990 with the A’s he hit 28 out and stole 65. In the past the best base stealers didn’t hit for power and the power hitters were big muscle bound guys that couldn’t run. Consider only 4 players have ever had a 40/40 season and only 1 player had ever had a 30/50 season (Eric Davis in 1987) prior to Acuna this season
Rickey was a beast forgot about his exploits. Good lord 87 stolen bases is just wow…
Not to mention 130 in 1982.
87 stolen bases was not his best season. His ability to take a walk made him the best leadoff man in history.
Rickey had the power but he was more focused on getting on base, putting the ball in play, and stealing. Guys like Tony Gywnn and Wade Boggs also had pop but took the basehits instead.
Does Betts’s bowling score get counted in too?
The obsession with hating WAR and advanced stats on here is crazy
That’s OK. A lot think the hatred on traditional stats is crazy.
I think the discounting of the number of strikeouts, ability to move runners up to third, and anything that produces runs (that you need to win the game) is crazy too, but that’s just me. I look at how many inherited runners score versus bullpen ERA too, by the way.
Agreed, many such cases!
Players in the MVP race don’t struggle in moving runners over. These arent mediocre utility players were talking about
John Means just pitched five innings Wednesday, so he’s not pitching this weekend in Baltimore. Secondly, the O’s have been using a six man rotation for a month now. It’s nothing new!
The biggest issue I have with WAR is it disproportionately counts against a player who plays a position at which your job is to mash and overstates the value of a gold glove CF/SS/C
-In 2009, David Ortiz was a DH. He didn’t play a single inning in the field. How is -0.9 dWAR counted against him? He can’t have negative defensive value, he literally never played the field.
-Freddie Freeman, Gold Glove 1B, is dinged -10.3 fWAR for his career just because he plays 1B?
-Andrelton Simmons, because he’s a brilliant SS, according to WAR, is the 3rd most valuable player in the American League (5th mostr valuable in MLB) in 2017?
I call bulls***
I agree with you Bizzy, especially since DH is now a universal position. Offensive WAR is already adjusted for each position. Why do they double-dip and ding a DH for negative defensive value? Marcell Ozuna is killing the ball, but he gets negative WAR for his defense. How is his defense any worse than any other DH? WAR is Wins Above Replacement. Are they implying that every team can bring up a AAA replacement DH who will provide that kind of offense?
You should get dinged at DH because you’re NOT playing any defense. You can plug anyone at DH as defense does not matter. Remember that WAR is a measure of total overall value. In almost all cases you plug someone at DH because they can’t play the field. They have a lot more VALUE if they play the field. Perhaps there should be an award for best offensive player. That’s not what MVP is.
bRef adjusts for defensive position in their offensive WAR, and then they also ding on defensive WAR. Why double dip?
Andrelton Simmons finished 29th in fWAR in 2017. Nowhere close to 3rd or 5th best.
He was 3rd highest in bWAR among position players in 2017.
If WAR is so reliable, why are there multiple WARs that don’t agree?
I didn’t say anything about reliability. He quoted fWAR in the post so I checked fangraphs.
And I don’t think it’s an end-all be-all of stats. Nobody thinks that Simmons is better than Bregman for example, it’s just another analysis tool.
If religion is so reliable, why are there like 5,000 gods people have worshipped?
There’s another discussion above about WAR. I just piggy-backed on this post. I should have separated them. Sorry about that.
He must have mis-spoke when he said fWAR. If he’d said bWAR, that would have been accurate.
Let’s keep it on baseball, please?
It’s all good
because theyre different calculations.
In 2017 Simmons had arguably the best defensive season in history at shortstop.
He also had a good offensive season.
A run saved is worth a run scored and he saved a ton of them. A 41 DRS.
That is why overall he was the 3rd most valuable position player that dragon.
MVP race is meaningless. rest that foot Mookie. Crutches after a play in the first inning is weird.
Personally I don’t like splitting hairs with great players. Betts & Acuna are CLEARLY the two best all around players in the NL this year. Why not have Co-MVPs?
Acuna was the clear leader for most of season but seems like Betts now has a slight edge. Still have a few weeks to go and looks like Betts may be sidelined for at least a few days.
There is no doubt that Betts is the MVP even if he doesn’t play another game. 8.0 WAR vs 6.9 WAR. Stolen bases are fun but don’t make you an MVP.
What would be sad is not seeing Betts playing in the playoffs.
The Real Problem with WAR, by Bill James
billjamesonline.com/the_real_problem_with_war/
So is somebody gonna tell Foxtrot about the rule changes this year that made it much easier to steal bases, or should I?
And BTW there’s another guy named Olson that’s been pretty good and will likely take some votes away from Acuna.
And Freddie might take some Betts votes. I’d say that Freddie is better than Olson, even with Olson’s lead in homers.
Pretty clear that this is a two horse race right now. Freeman and Olson having unbelievable seasons but Betts and Acuna at a slightly higher level. I don’t buy the stealing votes case. You don’t have to vote for a Dodger or Brave. You vote for the most valuable. I also hate the argument that MVP has to go to a dominant/winning team.
Mlb – Doesn’t have to go to a dominant or even winning team.
Ever heard of Andre Dawson or Ernie Banks?
Andre’s story that year was awesome. He handed the Cubs a contract with a blank amount, and told them to put in whatever they thought was fair. Then he wins MVP for a losing team.
Actually it wasn’t awesome because he was being colluded against, but we didn’t know that at the time.
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, uhh
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Say it again, y’all
War, huh (good God)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me, oh
Can we give some love to my man Dean the Dream Kremer in that Baltimore rotation?!?! Lots of innings pitched and consistently getting better since the mid-point last season. What a dream, that Dean Kremer! Just a rock in the rotation and watching him learn how to pitch in the AL East has been fun. Plus plus hair.
Will battle Fried for Team Israel ace next WBC
Or really meaningful 2023 post season action!