The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.
The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.
That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.
It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.
Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.
The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.
Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.
Trade him for Trout.
You’re kidding, right?
Lol Saint Nickolas… did you see those catches he made? If AA was John Mozeliak or whoever was running the white Sox at the time of the Tatis Jr trade, he MIGHT! but then again Mozeliak loves gift wrapping future All stars, MVP candidates, and Cy Young Winners around Christmas time so you’ve done a great job trolling him? Is Ronald McDonald also your side kick?
I missed the trade rumor in this article, so I don’t see its relevance to the site.
First time here? If so you’ll find that there is more to MLBTR than trade rumors.
He’s been abysmal in the playoffs.
Was the Game 3 ending past bedtime?
I’m failing to grasp the point of this article coming the week after his team was unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs and a series in which he failed to get a hit.
He did make a couple sick plays on the field, though.
So has been most of their lineup if you had t noticed…
So has been most of their lineup if you had t noticed…. In the playoffs that is
Alex, it’s a free content site for our viewing pleasure. Calm down. It’s not all about you
LOL ok… I made a simple observation and you’re the one getting bent out of shape. You a friend of the writer?
I question the ethics of a very player-friendly article—especially one that struggled mightily this postseason, as the commenter below noted— on such a widely-read site within the industry. Particularly since he is not a trade candidate being already on a long-term extension as a key young piece on a contending team.
Struggled so much that, in fact, he was pinch hit for with ATL’s season on the line, against a middle reliever.
Playoffs career for one Michael Harris 2
2023 0 hits 14 ab
2022 1 hit 13 ab
==========
1-27 in playoffs career
.037/.037/.037
Ethics? Really? This is an ethics issue?
It was a matchup play. Braves wanted a rh hitter vs a lefty. You’ve never seen that before?
@Hemlock: Look on the bright side. Braves extremely likely to give Harris II plenty of chances to improve on that 2 year small sample size in the playoffs. You know Harris II is one of the most valuable assets in baseball and he’s still just a kid. Gonna be a lot of fun watching him get better while playing at near superstar level over the coming years.
His lack of walks are a concern. Hopefully he matures into someone who doesn’t suck in the playoffs. That’s the big thing. The playoffs matter more than anything. I don’t care about the regular season this or that. “Oh, we did this! We won that!” Don’t give a flying platypus. Get me 11 wins in the playoffs or balls are going to roll. This team has no fire and the fans in Truist Park are a bunch of zombies. It’s like they don’t care. “Well, there’s always next year.” ****!!!
@hemlock
So if a player hit .037 the week of May 3- May 10 2023, do you sit him expecting him to hit .037 ,May3-10 2024?
22.
Darkside: Considering how many MLB front office execs read this site, yes.
@Nashville – How’d that work out?
Bottom line was that he was struggling and Snitker had no faith in him. THis goes without saying that THomson completely outmanged Snitker and made him look like an Amateur.
How exactly does the possibility of front office executives reading this article lead to a possible ethical dilemma?
And more broadly, why do people have to constantly complain and moan about these articles? Based on the title alone, it’s pretty obvious it’s not a trade rumor and likely an opinion piece. Thus, if you don’t wish to read it, then simply don’t click. Some of us actually appreciate content like this.
And I don’t always agree with the writer’s interpretation, but it’s always interesting to read someone else’s perspective.
@Woods Rider: You’re basing your critique on results over process. I simply said the Braves pinch hit for a lefty hitter vs a lefty pitcher. They did the same thing in another lineup spot in the same inning. Neither move resulted in the pinch hitter getting a hit, but the moves were the right play in the situation.
Ethics issue? Lol what? Leaving aside that Harris already got his first bag, you really think fo types wouldn’t be aware of all the data cited in this article and then some if Harris wasn’t locked up with ATL?
This kind of article is commonplace in baseball media. The idea that it somehow moves the needle on a players earning power is ridiculous. And even if it did, so what? Like a bunch of billionaires getting to skimp a bit more on the players who make the teams their money is somehow a desirable and “ethical” outcome?
By that logic the yearly awards are also “unethical.” Which is a ridiculous premise on its face. Good and exciting players are gonna get media attention and praise for their performance, always have always will. What an absurd thing to waste time worrying about.
Of course they would be, but what if a player’s agents are throwing money at MLBTR to get these kinds of numbers more directly in front of FO’s noses? That’s the ethics issue.
This is not ESPN or a local newspaper, which front offices aren’t reading as much of. They are coming here for news regarding transactions. This article is NOT that.
“…but what if…”
I found your problem. And if a front office executive is strictly reliant on the opinion of MLBTR writers when making managerial transactions, they probably shouldn’t be in that position in the first place.
This sounds like a non-issue to me
@farian
If all you have are what ifs you got nothing. What if Manfred is secretly a reptilian alien from the planet Neptune? What if Marge schott is actually alive in argentina plotting a fascist coup to take over mlb? Anyone can make what ifs but they don’t constitute a bona fide issue.
How do you know what front offices read? If a front office is seriously planning a bid to acquire a player they’re gonna be considering a lot more input than a one off article on mlb tr and I’d very much doubt that media coverage about on field performance plays more than a minor role in that process if any. If media coverage plays any role in these decisions it is more likely about public image and pr considerations than on field evaluation.
Why would an agent waste time and money on the kind of moves you suggest when the upside seems virtually nonexistent and the downside of being found out would damage their business? Especially when talking about a player like Harris who really doesn’t need any boost like this to be valued very highly.
Maybe pull the stick out of your butt when it comes to this weirdly literal interpretation of what mlbtr’s content should be and knock it off with the conspiratorial spam posting k?
> What if Manfred is secretly a
> reptilian alien from the planet Neptune?
PETE—
By Scott, you may be on to something! Old chap, curio if you would kindly expand this idea by, let’s say, 15,000 words, so that everyone can peek into your mind and better understand what it is like to be a God.
Cheers,
Hem
@hem lol
I mean I could do what youre asking but idk if i should. You remember what happened when they opened the ark in Raiders? It’s kinda like that. Gonna have to decline cuz I care about your safety there bud.
You don’t ‘have’ to anything, but taking such a small sample size and say he sucks in the playoffs. Pity really. Pity for you Hemlock.
You want to use whataboutism to disprove my point? It’s widely known that agents and front office executives read this site. You’re equating a reasonable point to unreasonable ones. So you knock it off.
@farian ok buddy! I eagerly await the debut of your website Mlb Trade Rumors Rumors. Should be good rubbernecking lol.
Is this satire? Or just an idiot?
Not to mention it’s just another failed attempt at some statistical analysis by a wannabe Fangraphs writer, but it comes off as amateurish because it’s so superficial.
I’m not 100% the economics on it? But I’m willing to bet they get paid per click for the advertising? The writers are required a certain amount of product to keep the wheels turning on the site? Here they decided to highlight Harris III who’s Arbitration years will determine how much he’s paid? which is a big part of this site….? During the off-season you will get articles about arbitration hearings and players who avoid them by signing? Micheal Harris III is establishing a case for very nice pay raises come arbitration? Anyways take care
>Micheal Harris III is establishing a
> case for very nice pay raises
> come arbitration?
Harris 2.0 is signed until 2030, and 2032 if two team options are picked up. He will never experience arbitration.
Harris 3.0 has not yet been manufactured.
His defense is great. He started the year with 200 at bats and a really bad average (under 200). Then for the rest of the year he really did great till the last 3/4 weeks of the season. He is really impressive.
A lot of franchises would love to make the playoffs every year, and it looks like they’ve succeeded doing it again. The big 3 era is gone, but now they have something else. For the average fan we had a laugh as all the showboating the Braves did in home runs this season came back to haunt them. It’s all fun.
The Tigers are getting close again to dominating the Central like from 2011 to 14, but look how long it’s taken. Atlanta may have not won it all, but they are where Detroit is trying to get to.
Did Michael Harris II write this article?
His agent certainly edited out the playoffs part.
What do you guys think the site, MHII, or his agent, have to gain from painting a rosy picture of him here? He’s got 7 years left on his deal! No arb cases coming up. No FA contracts to sign. It’s just an interesting article about a very good young player.
I found it interesting and informative. For example, I knew he had overperformed his peripherals last season, but I didn’t realize he had cut his K rate so much this season.
> What do you guys think … MHII, or his
> agent, have to gain from painting
> a rosy picture of him here?
Good on you, mate.
Kisses from misses downunda
G’day
I saw that dude make two amazing catches? One which ignited the “ATTA BOY” comments? Anyways…
Can’t wait to see him play Monday.
Philles were better… hmmm maybe the write wrote this just to rub salt in a wound? Nice… anyways…
Would that extra dough for country boy keep his mouth shut and win championships Dansby Swanson have been worth it? “Atta boy Arcia” did Dansby ever go off on the fans in Philly? Acuna was too? These guys can’t handle loosing? How can they handle winning?
“No habla”
yeah I’ve learned when you have nothing good to say to be quite to, especially when your emotional and reactive? People SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO will turn everything you say and use it against you?
“NO HABLA”
Harris is a valuable player, but he’s pretty much the same player if you assume that he’s somewhere between his ugly start and how he looked after coming back from his injury.
His strikeout rate went down a little, but he still doesn’t walk much and other than a slight decrease in his slugging numbers and hitting fewer ground balls, his offensive profile was pretty much the same this year as it was last year.
I wouldn’t say he built off of last year as much as I’d say he just maintained it.
But do the Braves have an OF surplus? Find out more at 9.
Small nitpick with the writer here. You have to pick whether 2022 or 2023 qualifies as “last year” when you write. You referred to both seasons as “last year” in the same paragraph.
Harris was perhaps the worst hotter in baseball statistically on June 1. And he had a -1.9 war at the time and was hitting.163
But he went on to have a 3.4 war and finish with a .293 average. That’s a 5.3 war and a 130 point jump after June 1. And oh he’s the best defensive outfielder in baseball.
This guy is going to be a superstar he is going to perhaps be the best player in baseball in 4 or 5 years he’s got every tool available he can hit up baseball 470 ft if you want to he can steal 40 bases he can win a gold glove every year for the next 10 years and he can also probably hit 35 or 40 home runs especially when he develops a little bit more muscle as he gets older. Baseball has not seen a left-handed cf this talented since Ken Griffey Jr.
And if MLB is wanting to market young black Superstars they should be putting this guy’s face in every other commercial. Because he’s only going to get better.
Maybe you should check in on Brenton Doyle, a MUCH better defensive outfielder before making that proclamation. He plays in Colorado so very few people see him and he cannot really hit a lick, but he plays defense as good or better than any outfielder I have ever seen. He is up there with Jim Edmonds.
If only you could marry Doyle’s coverage with Nolan Jones’s arm.
Doyle’s arm is right there with Jones. Jones has a little more accuracy, but both throw over 100 MPH.. And even the accuracy is close. Watching those two play the outfield made a rough season for the Rockies at least watchable.
No one checking on a colorado hitter batting
.203
Harris is not close to the best defensive OF in baseball. His 2 DRS and 6 OAA were no where near the best. fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qua…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
He had a 3.4 WAR. Full stop.
All he needs to do is keep his OPS+ > 115 and play above average CF to be worth his contract. But if he continues to swing outside the zone, not take walks and not be a power hitter it’s going to lead to an impactful regression. Bader 2.0.
Harris’ performance declined substantially.
The haters come out of their basements anytime there’s an article about the Braves.
The word “either” shouldn’t have a comma before it. Also, this writer needs to learn the difference between a hyphen (-) and an em dash (—) because they’re using the former completely wrong. It should be the latter.
>It should be the latter.
Do you enjoy ladders or escalators? I like the latter because you can go up without moving.