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Michael Harris II

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

By Brad Johnson 2 | June 18, 2022 at 7:17am CDT

This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Elly De La Cruz George Valera Gunnar Henderson Matt Brash Michael Harris II

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Braves Promote Michael Harris II

By Mark Polishuk | May 28, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

The Braves have selected the contract of top outfield prospect Michael Harris II, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.  Harris will be taking the place of outfielder Travis Demeritte, who was optioned to Triple-A after last night’s game.

It’s an aggressive and somewhat surprising promotion on the Braves’ part, as the 21-year-old Harris has yet to play even in Triple-A ball.  However, Harris could be seen as a center field upgrade immediately, as Adam Duvall has hit only .191/.263/.274 over 175 plate appearances.  At the very least, the switch-hitting Harris will be sharing time with the right-handed hitting Duvall, though it seems likely that the Braves wouldn’t have called Harris up if they weren’t planning on playing the youngster every day.

Atlanta’s outfield has largely struggled all season, with the notable exception of Ronald Acuna Jr. since his return from the injured list.  However, Acuna has missed time with a quad strain over the last few days, and while Acuna was able to pinch-hit last night, the Braves figure to be cautious with their superstar until he is closer to 100 percent.

This provides an opportunity for Harris to give the outfield mix a shot in the arm, and it represents the latest step in what has been a rather quick rise to prominence.  A local product born in DeKalb, Georgia, Harris was a third-round pick for the Braves in the 2019 draft, and he had only an okay rookie season before sitting out in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season.

Upon returning to the field, Harris suddenly blossomed, hitting .294/.362/.436 over 420 PA for the Braves’ High-A affiliate, and also hitting seven homers and stealing 27 bases out of 31 chances.  This breakout put him on the radar of prospect evaluators, with Baseball America listing Harris as the 46th-best prospect in baseball in their preseason rankings (Baseball Prospectus ranked him 58th, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him 61st, and MLB Pipeline ranked him 65st).

Defensively, Harris has played mostly as a center fielder, and received plus grades for his glovework and his throwing arm.  (The latter is no surprise, as Harris was also a highly-touted pitcher in high school.)  As per Pipeline’s scouting report, Harris was voted the best defensive outfielder in the High-A East league by rival managers.

At the plate, Harris hit exclusively as a left-handed batter in 2021 before returning to switch-hitting this season in Double-A.  Harris has been prone to chasing pitches, but improved on that problem as the 2021 season went on, cutting back on his strikeouts while improving his on-base numbers.  While Harris has posted big BABIP numbers over the last two seasons, those totals speak to both some good fortune and his plus speed, which allows him to beat out grounders.

Harris hit .305/.372/.506 with five homers and 11 steals (in 14 chances) over 196 PA at the Double-A level, leaving no doubt that his 2021 performance was for real.  It was enough to convince Atlanta that Harris is ready for The Show, and yet as always with prospects, it shouldn’t be assumed that Harris will immediately play well in his first taste of the majors.

It could be that the Braves might eventually send Harris down to Triple-A if he struggles, which would halt his MLB service clock.  If Harris does stay up, he likely won’t bank enough service time to make him a Super Two candidate (and thus earn a fourth year of arbitration eligibility).  Players like Seiya Suzuki and MacKenzie Gore have an early lead in the race to be NL Rookie Of The Year, though there’s plenty of time for Harris to make a late charge, which would benefit both Harris and the Braves via the new Prospect Promotion Incentive plan.

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Atlanta Braves Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Michael Harris II Travis Demeritte

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East Notes: Casas, Armstrong, Harris

By Mark Polishuk and Darragh McDonald | March 6, 2022 at 8:10pm CDT

Triston Casas had a busy year in 2021, bouncing between Double-A, the Team USA Olympic squad and Triple-A. “I was bouncing all over the place,” Casas said to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I did my best to take it one day at a time and I’m happy with the way I handled it. But hopefully I’ll be a little more settled this year.” All of that bouncing around did nothing to slow Casas down, as the Red Sox first base prospect hit .279/.394/.484 for a wRC+ of 141 in 86 games, between Double-A and Triple-A. That showing has him on the cusp of making his major league debut, though he doesn’t yet have a spot on the roster. That means he’ll have the extra challenge of having to earn that roster spot before getting called up, but also comes with the positive of Casas not being locked out and thus eligible to participate in Spring Training. “I absolutely appreciate what they’re doing,” Casas said of the MLBPA’s efforts in the lockout. “I know they’re working diligently to make sure baseball is a fair game. I don’t know all the information, but they’re making a sacrifice to help younger players.” As for what comes next for the 22-year-old, “My goal is to make the major league team.” The Sox currently project to have Bobby Dalbec at first base and J.D. Martinez in the DH slot most of the time. However, Martinez is a free agent after 2022, meaning that, even if Casas struggles to force his way into the lineup this year, his chances of doing so will be much greater one year from now.

Elsewhere in the East…

  • Though Shawn Armstrong is a minor league free agent, the rules specifying which players are locked out have kept the right-hander on the open market and unable to sign even a minor league deal, according to The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin.  It’s a tough blow for the 31-year-old, especially since Armstrong said he heard from over 20 teams in November prior to the lockout, with the Rays (Armstrong’s former club) and roughly a dozen other teams offering minor league or split contracts.  Armstrong opted to wait for a guaranteed offer, but now finds himself stuck waiting to determine the next step in his career.  “I know, it’s going to be very, very quick when the lockout ends versus being able to talk and communicate and counteroffer and those types of things,” Armstrong said. “But it is what it is.  Nothing I can do about it.  Just got to stay ready.”
  • Braves outfield prospect Michael Harris II had a solid year in 2021, playing 101 High-A games and hitting .294/.362/.436, wRC+ of 114. But he might just be scratching the surface of what he’s capable of, at least according to fellow Braves prospect Braden Shewmake. “I think (Harris) could help (the big club). I definitely do,” Shewmake tells Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “When he gets his chance, I think he’s going to stick. I don’t think he’s going to be a guy that bounces back and forth.” Despite his promise, Harris is aware that he still has to make strides, telling Toscano that “There’s always somewhere to improve, so I don’t really focus on one specific area.” Harris doesn’t yet have a roster spot, meaning other outfielders like Drew Waters and Cristian Pache have a clearer path to playing time than he does. But unlike them, Harris has the advantage of not being locked out, and thus able to participate in team activities and access team facilities.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Michael Harris II Shawn Armstrong Triston Casas

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