While Manny Machado’s recovery from elbow surgery will cloud the Padres’ infield picture for the start of the 2024 season, it is possible the Friars might explore moving Xander Bogaerts off of shortstop as soon as next year, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes. The public defensive metrics were pretty mixed on Bogaerts’ glovework last season, as he received +3 Outs Above Average, -4 Defensive Runs Saved, and an exactly even 0.0 UZR/150 over 1285 2/3 innings at shortstop. “Team officials have talked among themselves about the possibility of asking Bogaerts to move to the right side of the infield,” Lin writes, with perhaps even first base being an ideal destination from a defensive standpoint, setting up an infield of Bogaerts at first base, Jake Cronenworth at second base, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and Machado at third base.
For his part, Bogaerts would prefer second base over first base if a position change did happen. When talking to Lin and other reporters last month, Bogaerts said “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” in terms of changing his defensive role, and he had “no idea” if the Padres were going to broach the subject in the coming months. Depending on Machado’s injury rehab, Kim is expected to handle third base until Machado is ready to return to fielding duty, though naturally any of the Padres’ plans could be altered by upcoming offseason moves.
Some other items from around the NL West….
- Angels third base coach Bill Haselman “has been talked about” in regards to the Giants’ managerial job, a source tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Haselman played in parts of 13 MLB seasons from 1990-2003, and has five years of coaching experience on Major League staffs — as a bullpen coach and first base coach for the Red Sox in 2004-06, and as a catching instructor and third base coach in Anaheim over the last two seasons. Haselman also has a lot of experience as a minor league coach and manager in the Angels’ and Dodgers’ minor league systems, and his time with the Dodgers overlapped with Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as Los Angeles’ general manager from 2014-18. It remains to be seen if Haselman is more than a speculative candidate to be the Giants’ next skipper, though Zaidi (San Francisco’s president of baseball operations) appears to be expanding his search beyond internal candidates.
- The Rockies and Mariners discussed a trade last offseason that would’ve brought some pitching to Colorado, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The specifics of the trade talks weren’t revealed, though it makes sense that the pitching-needy Rockies would’ve at least checked in with Seattle, given how rumors swirled last winter that the M’s were open to moving one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. Given how the Rox ended up signing Flexen as a free agent back in July, it is fair to wonder if he was perhaps the particular name under discussion. Purely speculatively, the Rockies also might’ve aimed higher in their pitching goals, perhaps dangling Brendan Rodgers to the Mariners (who needed second base help) as part of a trade package involving George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. Colorado had some degree of talks with the Marlins last offseason about a Rodgers-for-Edward Cabrera swap, and Saunders suggest that Rodgers “might be a trade candidate again” in the coming months. It would be something of a sell-low move for the Rockies at this point with Rodgers, as while he has two remaining years of arbitration control, he only played 46 games last season due to a dislocated shoulder.
Brendan Rodgers Home/Away stats paint a larger picture of what his value would be to other teams, away from COL he is scrub hitter. I can’t believe any team would overlook this and trade something of deep value.
The Rox would be wise to trade him for top value. Which means they likely won’t.
As per Datashark, Rodgers has no value now except in Colorado. If he continues to improve after this year’s shoulder surgery, he could possibly have some trade value in mid-2004….but not for anyone better than him (Kirby? Gilbert? please….)
“Bog would prefer 2B over SS if a position change did happen”…?? Is that correct? If so, they signed a massive deal for someone that didn’t want to play SS long term, even if he could? A lot of money for a decent 2B.
Run – there is nothing in this post or any other that suggests Bog doesn’t want to play SS. His comments arose from being asked about what if a switch is asked of him – he isn’t instigating the switch – but offering that he prefers 2b IF a switch happens.
In other reports he has even suggested CF as an option because as he put it, up the middle is where the action is (paraphrasing) and thst a move to a corner OF or 1b is generally considered necessary for this with less athleticism.
I actually said weeks ago on a post that 1b would work for my pick because it moves Cro back to 2b and Kim to SS. Maybe Bog’s wrist wouldn’t be as much an issue at 1b.
If he can play CF though I’m up for that because they can find a 1b in FA easier than a CF with offensive side – since they have the defensive side covered with Grish already.
“Bog would prefer 2B over SS if a position change did happen”…?? Is that correct?
=======================
I think that was a typo. I think the writer probably meant he’d prefer 2B over 1B, which would make perfect sense.
Joe – I give you credit for deciphering WTF “Bog” means, but I hafta ask … don’t you see his contradictory glove numbers are further proof that defensive analytics are meaningless. Not only are they all over the place this year, they are drastically different from last year. There’s no way he went from GG finalist to crappy fielder in less than a year.
Late response, but I don’t believe in one-year fielding stats. Too much variance. IMO, X was a mediocre fielder with us. Weak range, but rarely missed a routine play. That plays for me, as that was the same as Jeter and Ripken.
But the lack of range means a very short SS life. As I said at every point along the way, we were keeping him or Devers, but not both. One was going to be the 3B.
IRT GG to crappy fielder, the GG’s have gone from a joke to a mockery. I mean, Soto can barely catch the ball, and he got a nomination. I go by the Fielding Bible vote tally and X was 19th in 2022. That’s probably about right.
Good catch. No, that definitely is not correct. They meant he would prefer 2B over 1B if a move were to occur.
That’s the assumption.
This is why I thought that was such a horrible signing.
Bogaerts does not have the kind of batting stats to just his contract as a 1B. Padres already had Machado at 3B, either Kim or Tatis at SS, an overpaid Crony at 2B.
Bogey’s contract only comes close if you want him as a SS for a decade.
Padres should have passed on Bogey and last year signed someone like Candelario as a stopgap one year 1B.
I think SD should consider moving Cronenworth and have Bogaerts play 2B.
Bogaerts won’t be moved off SS, but if he is moved to 2B you can look at Semien as an example of why he would still be incredibly valuable.
Not a bad comp. I think Semien is better but Bogie would be one of the most valuable 2B in MLB, for sure.
With the wrist issue bogaerts still managed an OPS+ of 120 and 4.4 WAR in 2023.
Moving him to a less demanding defensive position he could crack 5-6 WAR with that offense and better defensive production.
“Decent” 2B. Cause guys that could give you 5 war at 2b are abundant in the league apparently.
The 120+ was actually above his career average 117+
Bogaerts never said that. He said he prefers SS, period. It makes no sense to move him at all. If anyone moved, it would be Machado whose throwing arm just had surgery and won’t be fully healed by March.
Kim is a FA after the season and unless they sign him long term, he is not getting moved to SS over Bogaerts who is both a better hitter and played above league average defense at SS.
Bogaerts put up a 4.4 WAR, 120 OPS+, and a 3 DRS in a season he had an injured wrist. That puts him 6th or 7th best among all SS. Stupid to move him, but saying it sure got you guys talking.
Of course someone mentioning it got people talking. You thought Dennis Lin (who is also very reputable) would be ignored? I’m not sure of the point you’re trying to make here. This is a rumors site; people comment on rumors.
Bogaerts stated during free agency he wanted to stay at ss. (ahem, wanted to be paid like a ss)
Well, he got paid like one, so why should he care now….? Hopefully he’ll acquiesce to what’s best for the team? Check still cashes either way.
Wonder if the Mariners would be interested in a Vaughn Grissom & Mike Soroka package.
Soroka being from Calgary I believe although not close but Seattle being the closest MLB team in proximity to Calgary.
See what else it would take to add to those 2 for one of the top young Seattle pitchers
It depends on what you mean by top young pitcher. I think they are looking to move woo or miller. That package would absolutely not net gilbert or kirby.
Soroka may never start again.
I like Grissom more than most but he plays weak defense at SS and while I believe the average and speed is there, he needs to develop more power to move from utility to LF or even as a bat-first 2B. Mariners are not giving up a starting pitcher for that combo even though Vaughn has upside.
Gilbert and Kirby would almost assuredly be moved for nothing less than a controllable middle of the order bat. From Atlanta, I think it would require Riley. I could see a trade centered around Grissom and Miller for sure. We need to add a useful bat badly, but it doesn’t make sense to subtract from our pitching core. This idea that we have an abundance of SP is false to me.
There are only 10 years and $254.5MM left on Bogaerts’ contract.
He needs to average 142 hits per year over that decade to reach 3,000 career hits.
Sounds plausible. He hasn’t had fewer than 150 hits in a season since 2014 (unless you count 2020). If he averages 600 at-bats a season in each year of the contract, he’ll only need to bat .237 each of those years. He has batted below .285 one time since 2015, so I think it’s very much within reach right now.
It seems that injuries are his only threat.
1,580 career hits
1,420 left to go
Averages over 9 years (I removed 2013 and 2020)—
149 games
168 hits
1.12752 hits/g
1,680 hits over 10 years
1,420 hits needed for 3,000
===============
260 extra hits (1680 – 1420)
204 extra games (260/1.12752)
So he could miss a full season (162 games) plus 42 games with injuries and still arrive squarely on 3,000. All of this assumes that his career average rates hold up for a decade, which might be unlikely.
Advice on getting to 3,000—
Don’t get injured
Date people your age (don’t Wander)
Maintain your hitting skills for as long as possible
Bogaerts is a solid dude. It’s highly unlikely he pulls anything close to wander-type $hit.
That assumption incudes X playing until he is 40. Optimistic bet is 700 hits for ages 36-40. That means 980 hits over the next 5, or 196/season.
Very unlikely.
Nearly 200 hits a season is a gross overestimate. You have to look at it by at-bats per season, not hits in total per season. He needs exactly 1420 to reach 3K hits. If he averages 550 at-bats a season, he needs to bat at leats .259 each season. There are going to be years where he hits above .259 with more than 550 at-bats. There are also going to be years where he won’t hit .259+ with 550+ at-bats. But I think Bogaerts can reach that. He has hit under .260 just one time since his rookie year. He has also appeared in less than 140 games also just once since his rookie year.
This is a possible breakdown of “700 hits” for ages 36 to 40–
36 150 hits
37 145 hits
38 140 hits
39 135 hits
40 130 hits
======
36-40 700 hits
I struggled to find an exact (or a similar) match for Xander Bogaerts. Here are some “similar” hitters—better in some cases, and then there’s Ozzie.
Ages 36-40–
Derek Jeter had 718 hits but he missed almost all of his age 39 season, 610/810 games.
Barry Larkin had 456 hits but he only played in 473/810 games due to injuries.
Cal Ripken Jr had 635 hits in 620/810 games.
Paul Molitor had 897 hits in 701/810 games.
Ozzie Smith had 598 hits in 565/810 games.
So, Xander isn’t Paul Molitor. I think at least 700 hits is reasonable based on what he will be paid (they have to play him, right?) and his hitting profile. He doesn’t walk a lot, doesn’t strike out a lot, lots of gap power (doubles) that typically ages well, and not a reliance on hitting HRs.
Who knows, he might still be playing at a high level and blow even those estimates away.
Anyway, those are my thoughts about that.
> Optimistic bet is 700 hits for ages 36-40.
> That means 980 hits over the next 5, or
> 196/season. Very unlikely.
Incorrect. He needs 1420 hits not 1680.
800 hits over 5 is 160/year. Then he would now only need 620 for ages 36-40. (800+620=1420)
He can do it!
What can I say? There were two numbers there and I had a 50/50 chance of getting it right.
That is what we in the accounting world call a material error. He can definitely do it.
But that said, since 2000, there have only been 6 guys that have accumulated 1420 hits for the seasons 31-40.
Haha
Well, I wasn’t a fan or enemy of Xander but after this I will be keeping track of his progress and rooting for him.
I agree that it’s plausible but you just compared him to 5 HOF players. He’s got a long way to go for HOF. Also plausible in 10 years I would guess. We shall see though.
We are not discussing his HOF candidacy. How do you even come up with that?
Those HOF players played ages 36-40 and are similar to Xander. I needed players who were good enough to play in those age ranges and play regularly to show what we might be able to expect him to do.
I know you weren’t talking about HOF chances. My point was you used all HOF players to get an estimate of possible amount of hits during that age range. Maybe use some average/above average players in that age range to get a little better idea of what to expect from Xander in 10 years. Wasn’t criticizing you or him. Just noticed they were all HOFers.
Ok sorry, I misunderstood
I put this above—
I struggled to find an exact (or a similar) match for Xander Bogaerts. Here are some “similar” hitters—better in some cases, and then there’s Ozzie.
The signing of Bogaerts continues to be perplexing. He’s a fine hitter and defender, but pushed two other guys off of their positions. Not his fault by the way. Moving Cronz ( an AS 2bman) to first is the biggest head scratcher given his declining bat. At this point, the Pads should probably live with the result and perhaps platoon a better hitter at 1b using Cronenworth in part time utility role.
Brew – I think the way Cro adapted to 1b when needed in 2022 put that situation in motion.
I watched most games this year and from what I saw there was never any Hosmeresque situations where Cro didn’t make a routine play. Also, he made some really fine plays. I know analytics may be lower on him but I never heard announcers comment negatively nor do I recall thinking it as a fan watching him. In fact, the opposite watching him scoop out balls over and over.
His stretch is a little short but that was about it.
I have season tickets near 1b, and was amazed by how well he defended the position. My comment was only about his less than adequate bat (for the 1b position), it might sell at 2b though. He needs to get his swing back to hitting on a plane, rather than trying to lift…his average would go up and I doubt his power ( which isn’t great anyway ) would suffer much.
Cronenworth played a great 1B filling in during 2022 and there were no good 1B available in FA.
I wouldn’t mind him moving to second. Every time he flopped on the ground toward a ground ball I knew it was getting through. Cronenworth is a good first baseman, he can field the wild throws, I don’t know that Bogearts can do that.
Bogie got paid far more than he should have and for the team to already consider moving his position says a lot. I wish him nothing but the best but this contract was under water the moment it was signed. Boston has their bloated contract in Devers who needs to be moved off third. I’m glad the team didn’t ink both again because the team to win, needs defense and starting pitching. Hopefully, this off season they upgrade on both needs.
The MEDIA is saying they are considering moving him, not the team. Bogaerts is being paid $25 million AAV and put up a 4.4. WAR which means he provided surplus value in what was a down season for him.
The Red Sox have no one internally and there is no one on the trade or FA market that can replace what Bogaerts provides.
James – see above as we agree on Cro. That said, I would bet most good defensive SS’s can adapt to 1b just like Cro did (former SS in milb). Same for a good defensive 3b. If they can pick the short hop off a bat they can pick the throw.
Great move. Now the Padres are stuck with a $25 million dollar second baseman who hits like a player worth half that.
For 10 years!
@ jorge78
Bogaerts OPS+ falls right in the middle of players like; Lindor(SS)-$34 million per year, Turner(SS)-$27.7 mil and Semien(2B)-$25 mil. Bogaerts is getting $25.45. He seems to be getting paid fair market rate, but don’t let reality keep you from exaggerating.
His real salary is more like $280M/8. The extra three years is just to spread out the salary for AAV purposes, similar to Turner. Lindor & Semien are over at age 37.
Yes, the Angels coaching staff needs to change so please consider Haselman.
Rodgers for Kirby or Gilbert? That would be a pretty fast phone call. I wouldn’t even trade Miller or Woo for Rodgers. Might be interesting to see them trade Miller/Woo for someone like Amador tho.
Sure, because why would you want a proven Gold Glove 2B entering his prime when you can get a guy that dominates Class A ball, but you have no idea how he will acclimate to the majors.
The Mariners wouldn’t give Gilbert or Kirby up for either of these 2 options.
They can find a 2B with a 77 WRC+ away from Coors Field for the league minimum, why give up anything for that?
Heck, the guys they ran out at the end of the year played better than that and they need to upgrade from them.
Sounds like we aren’t aligned on Rodgers value. No disrespect intended but I don’t think he’s any good. Amador is just interesting, but I don’t think he would be the primary piece in a trade between the two teams.
The issue is that they have 4 guys for 3 positions, and no one for 1B. Kim would get a good return, but is their best infielder. Nothing wrong with Machado, Cro, or , but they have a combined 27 years and $650M left on the contracts.
My suggestion is to trade Kim. He’ll get a good return, the contract is over after this year, and eases the glut.
Here we go again with people using the worst stat ever, H/R splits, to determine all the Rockies cannot hit at all. Even though it has been proven time and again by Arenado, LeMahieu, Holliday, and others that the H/R splits with the Rockies are meaningless.
The reason H/R splits are so high for the Rox is two fold. One, is obvious that Coors is the best hitting park. Two, is not so obvious. The Rockies are the only players in MLB without Coors Field inflated stats in their road stats. Every other player gets their road stats inflated by trips to Coors, but the Rockies have to settle with Dodger Stadium, Petco, whatever they are calling SF this week, and other pitchers parks as their main road number. H/R splits are completely unreliable because there is no equalized “road” number. It is completely different based on the team, same as home stats.
Yeah you can’t just look at the Rockies away stats and bank that’s exactly who they are.
Heck Jake Cronenworth hits better at home too and he plays in a pitcher’s park.
That said, I don’t think the Mariners would seriously consider swapping Kirby or Gilbert for Rodgers. It would take some serious prospect value to close the gap. Think a top 25 prospect or a top 50 AND a top 100.
Jonathan India would probably be a better target for the M’s since the Rockies have historically hung onto their players while they have value.
I would rather keep Rodgers than get a starting pitcher whose stats are probably artificially inflated by Seattle’s stadium. It can work both ways. I hope the Rockies keep Rodgers instead of trading him for another Chris Flexen.
It’s just that if the M’s made Gilbert or Kirby available as controlled #1 or #2 type starters that are cheap they’d have 29 teams reach out. Rockies do the same with Rodgers, there would be teams interested but not even close to the same degree.
Their respective values aren’t comparable for numerous reasons. Heck Kirby was the 12th most valuable pitcher in baseball last year, has 5 years of control and will make near nothing in 2025.
Brendan Rodgers was the 52nd most valuable 2b last year, he was hurt most of the year afterall, his 76 wRC+ was that of a mediocre utility player, was worth 0 fWAR and somehow only has 2 years of control left… I was thinking he had a better year and had 4 or so years of control so I take back what I said ealrier… he wouldn’t be anything other than a sweetener in a deal for one of the more valuable arms in the game.
Would the Padres give up the 1 year of control they have with Juan Soto AND top 10 prospect Jackson Merrill for George Kirby? Considering they would get a crazy valuable arm and free up 32m in 2024 to spend elsewhere they would at least consider it. They might need another (non elite) prospect back so it’s a 2-2.
He was hurt most of the year, so that should explain why his stats were down. He was expected to miss the whole season, but made it back with a whole two months left. A lot of players wouldn’t risk it, especially with a team that was already out of contention. But Rodgers was in the lineup 80% of the time after August. That says something about his fortitude.
If we are talking values, he was the 6th best 2B in 2022 when he was healthy the whole year. And that was after him having one of the worst Aprils ever.
I really hope the Padres make that deal, because it would take away their two best trade chips AND give them the next Mike Clevinger.
Am sure Kirby and Gilbert are praying NOT to be sent to pitchers purgatory in COL
I kinda just think Rodgers isn’t that good
I kinda think you are wrong.
I’m usually with ya hiflew but I dont think Rodgers is good. He’s a bench bat on a competitive team IMO. I get what you’re saying about his fortitude. He has a handful of very promising COL middle infield prospects behind him that may push him out of a job. He’s running out of time to show some upside. Not much trade value there.
With Kim a FA at the end of 2024, why would the Padres even think of moving Bogaerts off the only position he has ever played? Sometimes I read these articles and think are the writers stupid or just floating stupid ideas to rile up people and get clicks to their site?
With Machado having surgery on his elbow and being unlikely to be 100% throwing, wouldn’t it make far more sense to move him to 1B, Kim to 3B, and Cronenworth to 2B to start the season?
BUT, the writers would not get many clicks for saying what makes sense. Not enough to get people to say WTF!!! and click on their article.
This whole bit about dangling Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in a trade is pontification. if Seattle traded one of those guys who are they gonna replace his annings with? An expensive free agent, doh
Seattle’s strength is its starting pitching. They would be idiots to trade gilbert or kirby, I don’t care who they would receive in trade.
I would be very surprised if they deal Gilbert or Kirby. Miller, Woo, Hancock would make more sense. I wouldn’t trade pitching as a first option. If it comes to that, it probably means they whiffed on Shohei, Teo rejected QO, and M’s fans are getting pissed again.