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The Rockies’ Options For Replacing Trevor Story

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Uncertainty at shortstop is unfamiliar territory for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki held down the position for almost a decade, including a handful of seasons where he was among the best position players in the sport. Colorado traded Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays midway through the 2015 campaign, but they had a highly-regarded replacement waiting in the wings.

Trevor Story burst onto the big league scene with six home runs in his first four MLB games in April 2016. Essentially from that point forward, the position was his. Aside from a strikeout-fueled slump in his sophomore season, Story offered solid to plus production on both sides of the ball throughout his time in Denver. The most recent Colorado Opening Day shortstop not named Tulowitzki or Story? Clint Barmes, in 2006.

For the first time in a long time, the Rox now have a real question mark at shortstop. Story hit free agency. The club tagged him with a qualifying offer and has expressed some hope in a reunion, but there’s no indication that’s likely to happen. Assuming Story doesn’t return after the lockout, where could the Rockies go from here?

Unlike after Tulowitzki’s departure, Colorado wouldn’t appear to have a minor league replacement ready to step in. Only two of the top ten prospects in the farm system, according to Baseball America, are shortstops. One of them, Ezequiel Tovar, is 20 years old and finished the 2021 campaign in High-A. The other, Adael Amador, is 18 and has yet to advance to full season ball. So the Rockies will either need to move one of their current big leaguers up the defensive spectrum or replace Story externally.

Internal Options

  • Brendan Rodgers — A former #3 overall draftee and top prospect, Rodgers has appeared in the big leagues in three consecutive seasons but finally got his first extended MLB run last year. He held his own, hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances, starting a bit more than half the team’s games in the middle infield. The bulk of Rodgers’ work came at second base, and while that was partially in deference to Story, it also seems the club believes him better suited for the keystone. In November, Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote that the front office’s “preferred plan is to keep Rodgers … at second base.”
  • Ryan McMahon — McMahon’s coming off a very nice season. He hit a capable .254/.331/.449 over 596 trips to the plate. More impressively, the 27-year-old rated as a Gold Glove caliber defender during a season split between second and third base. After the season, general manager Bill Schmidt expressed his belief McMahon could handle the rigors of regular shortstop duty. That’s not without risks, though. The California native moved to third base in high school and has never started a professional game — MLB or minor league — at shortstop. And while moving McMahon might effectively plug a hole at shortstop, it’d leave the team searching for third base help (perhaps explaining their interest in Kris Bryant?).
  • Garrett Hampson — If Rodgers and McMahon stay put at second and third base, respectively, that’d seemingly leave Hampson as the favorite for shortstop playing time among internal candidates. The speedster has bounced all around the diamond as a big leaguer. He was a primary middle infielder coming up through the minors, though, and he’d likely be a capable if unspectacular option defensively. The bigger question may be whether the Rockies are content to live with Hampson’s bat in the lineup regularly. Despite playing his home games at altitude, the 27-year-old is a .240/.298/.383 hitter in a bit more than 1,000 career plate appearances.
  • Alan Trejo — Trejo is the least experienced of the bunch, with only 28 big league games under his belt. The 25-year-old is probably better suited for a utility role than the regular shortstop job. He has a decent minor league track record but has never appeared on an organizational ranking at BA.

Free Agents

Aside from Story and Carlos Correa, free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions at this point. Andrelton Simmons  is still an elite defender but coming off a miserable season at the plate. José Iglesias had a decent offensive showing but ran into uncharacteristic troubles with the glove. While Jonathan Villar can still moonlight at shortstop, he’s probably better suited for second/third base duty.

Trade Candidates

There are a few shortstops who might be available in trade. The D-Backs would surely listen to offers on Nick Ahmed. The Phillies might find an upgrade over Didi Gregorius. The A’s are likely to try to find a taker for Elvis Andrus. All three players will make fairly notable salaries in 2022, though, and none are definitive improvements over Colorado’s internal options.

The Rockies could act more aggressively in an attempt to land a younger, affordable player from teams with greater infield depth (i.e. the Royals’ Adalberto Mondesi or the Rays’ Taylor Walls). But that’d require parting with young talent from a farm system that Baseball America placed among the league’s bottom five in August. Coming off a 74-87 season, that’s probably not the most advisable course of action either.

Figuring out shortstop has likely been a point of emphasis this winter for Schmidt and his staff. Whether they elect to rely on an internal option without much MLB experience at the position or look outside the organization for help, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they enter 2022 as confident in their shortstop group as they’ve been for quite some time.

Rockies Notes: Gray, Owings, Rodgers

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Jon Gray is a few days away from fielding offers around the league, after the 29-year-old rejected a three-year extension offer from the Rockies that reportedly landed in the $35-40MM range. It’s widely expected the Rox will issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer before Sunday’s deadline, thereby at least entitling themselves draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere.

General manager Bill Schmidt has yet to formally announce the club’s intentions on a Gray QO, but he acknowledged to Thomas Harding of MLB.com the front office is “discussing” whether to do so. With the Rockies already willing to offer Gray $12-13MM annually over a three-year term, it’d be surprising if they weren’t willing to risk him accepting a one-year deal for just $5-6MM more.

Harding suggests in a separate piece that Colorado still hopes to eventually work out a deal with Gray, writing that the Rockies “believe they value Gray more than other teams.” Given that he’s shown himself capable of finding success in Coors Field, that’d certainly be plenty reasonable. Still, the pitcher and his representatives evidently believe there’s a chance they’ll find an offer that tops the Rockies’ proposal on the open market.

Retaining Gray would require a significant investment on Colorado’s part, but it’d be far easier to keep another of their free agents — Chris Owings — in the fold. Owings has spent the past two seasons with the Rockies, joining the organization on minor league deals in both instances. Colorado would like to bring Owings back in 2022, Harding hears. It’s possible that’d come via another minors pact, as the utilityman was limited to just 50 plate appearances this past season (albeit with a highly productive .326/.420/.628 line) by a pair of injuries to his left thumb.

One free agent who almost definitely will not be returning is Trevor Story. A lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, Story is all but certain to sign a significant multi-year deal elsewhere. The Rockies will have to address one middle infield spot this winter, then, and Harding writes they’re expected to target shortstop help. Brendan Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect before moving to second base in deference to Story. It’s not out of the question Colorado could bump Rodgers back to short and add an external option at second base, but Harding hears the front office would prefer to keep the 25-year-old Rodgers at the keystone moving forward.

Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies

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Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.

There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.

Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.

Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.

Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.

That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.

As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.

Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.

That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.

Latest On Rockies’ Offseason Strategy

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It wasn’t that long ago that many thought Jon Gray’s days in Colorado were over. In July. With the team outside the playoff hunt, armchair wisdom suggested trading Gray at the deadline, but all accounts suggest they were more than comfortable keeping the big righty in Denver. He finished the year with a 4.59 ERA/4.22 FIP in 29 starts covering 149 innings. It wasn’t a stellar year, but it might be enough to leave other clubs curious about what he might be capable of outside of Colorado.

Inside Colorado, GM Bill Schmidt is now fully installed in his role, so there’s little reason to think his position has changed. They’d love to have Gray back. Gray, of course, will be a free agent the day after the World Series. The Rockies have no more a hold on Gray than the other 29 teams in the league (assuming they don’t extend a qualifying offer). There are rumblings of a contact extension being on the table, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. Still, any agreement at this juncture would be surprising.

In terms of the rest of the roster, Schmidt’s recent comments provided by Groke suggest he may turn initially to the trade market, which would be a departure from normal operating procedure under former GM Jeff Bridich. If the Rockies do decide to dangle some of their players, Groke suggests Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, Daniel Bard, Ryan Vilade, and Grant Lavigne as affordable assets that might draw attention. Comments from the club last season suggested they plan to build around Tapia and Ryan McMahon, so it would be a little surprising to see one of them move, even if there’s wisdom in exploring the options.

Rodgers, likewise, has hung around for long enough waiting to replace Trevor Story. The 25-year-old managed enough offensively to suggest he might be ready for that role. That said, 100 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in 415 plate appearances doesn’t scream superstar. The bigger question with Rodgers might be his position, as he may no longer be ticketed for shortstop. Still, he’s looking like a plus power bat at the keystone, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. That’s a fine future for Rodgers, but it does limit his potential future value.

Schmidt, of course, already made his first couple of big moves this winter, signing Antonio Senzatela and C.J. Cron to extensions. Those moves lend credence to Groke’s suggestions above to dangle the organization’s other first baggers like Welker and Lavigne on the trade block, despite their youth. Cron’s deal was just for two years, but it does provide the team with some surplus from which they might be comfortable dealing.

NL Health Notes: Freeman, Rodgers, Lindor

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Freddie Freeman left Saturday’s game with “an upper respiratory infection”, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman also points out that Freeman tested negative for COVID-19 and that he may have caught an unspecified “bug” that his kids have at the moment. The Braves’ superstar first baseman is having yet another excellent season, with a wRC+ of 136. If he can maintain that level of production for the remainder of the campaign, it would mark an amazing ninth straight season with a wRC+ of 132 or higher. Freeman is out of the lineup today but hasn’t been placed on the IL, which suggests the Braves expect a short absence. In fact, Bowman says he could have played today, though the team will play it cautious and let him rest a bit longer. The club is in the midst of a three-team pennant race, sitting two games behind the Phillies and just half a game behind the Mets.

More notes from the National League…

  • Brendan Rodgers was removed from last night’s game after being hit on the hand but seems to have avoided significant injury. Rockies Manager Bud Black says that the x-rays came back negative, per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The infielder is finally getting a good run of playing time from the club and making good on his prospect pedigree. He’s been on Baseball America’s Top 100 every year since 2016. Through 227 plate appearances this season, he’s slashing .286/.348/.485, for a wRC+ of 110. The club has no need to rush him back, as they are well out of contention, 12 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.
  • Francisco Lindor’s return timeline is still murky, even to himself. “I don’t know when I’ll be back,” Lindor said, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. “I would love to sit here and say, I’ll be back at home. Or I would love to say, I’ll be playing rehab [games] next week. I don’t know. I honestly don’t know.” Before going on the IL with an oblique strain in mid-July, the star shortstop was mired in his worst season to date, slashing .228/.326/.376 for a wRC+ of 97, although that was mostly caused by an ice-cold start to the year. Since May 29th, his wRC+ has been an excellent 133. The Mets acquired Javier Baez at the deadline to try and cover for Lindor’s absence but have nonetheless slid out of the top spot in their division. They will surely be hoping for Lindor to recover as soon as possible, as the NL East pennant race seems destined to go down to the wire.

Rockies To Activate Antonio Senzatela From Injured List

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The Rockies are planning to reinstate Antonio Senzatela from the injured list, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Thomas Harding of MLB.com) yesterday. The righty will start this evening’s game against the Padres.

Senzatela went on the IL May 1 with a right groin strain, so he’ll return after spending the minimum ten days on the shelf. He has managed only a 5.76 ERA/4.67 SIERA over his first six starts. The 26-year-old throws a lot of strikes and induces plenty of ground balls, but he’s one of the league’s worst at missing bats. Senzatela’s 13.1% strikeout rate ranks 131st out of 136 starters with at least 20 innings pitched this season.

Black also provided updates on a handful of other health situations involving the club (via Harding). Lefty Kyle Freeland, a longtime rotation fixture, hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a shoulder strain in March. He’s scheduled to throw four exhibition innings at the team’s Spring Training facility in Arizona this week, but a timeline for his return to the majors is still unclear. Infielder Brendan Rodgers will join Freeland in Scottsdale as he rehabs from a left hamstring strain. Colorado’s presumptive regular second baseman, Rodgers has also yet to make his regular season debut after going down in March.

First baseman C.J. Cron has missed the past three games because of lower back soreness. Black told Harding the club is still evaluating whether he’ll need a stint on the injured list. Signed to a minor-league deal over the winter, Cron has emerged as the Rockies’ most productive hitter in the early going. He’s off to a .290/.394/.495 start with five homers over 109 plate appearances. As a low-cost impending free agent on a 12-22 team, Cron will be one of the sport’s most obvious summer trade candidates if he continues to mash. The Rockies have turned to Matt Adams and Connor Joe with Cron unavailable the past few days.

Brendan Rodgers Out At Least A Month

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The Rockies’ wait to see longtime top prospect Brendan Rodgers get everyday at-bats at the MLB level will last a bit longer, as manager Bud Black announced to reporters Friday that Rodgers will miss at least a month with a strained hamstring (Twitter link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).

Rodgers, 24, has been considered one of baseball’s top all-around prospects since the Rox selected him out of high school with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 draft. As with most teenaged prospects, his ascent through the minor league ranks took some time, but he debuted in the Majors in May 2019 after utterly crushing Triple-A pitching that year (.350/.413/.622).

Adjusting to the big leagues was a struggle for Rodgers, who hit poorly for his first few weeks before being optioned back to Triple-A. He was quickly recalled when the Rox suffered an injury on the big league roster, but Rodgers unfortunately never got a real chance to right the ship and show off the talent that made him such a touted prospect. Just five days after rejoining the MLB roster, Rodgers himself went on the IL due to what was initially termed a right shoulder impingement. The injury proved to be far worse, however, as the Rockies announced three weeks later that he’d undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in that problematic shoulder.

Rodgers spent the early portion of last year’s shortened season finishing his rehab at the Rockies’ alternate training site. He was brought back to the big leagues in late August but only appeared in seven games before again going on the injured list due to lingering problems in that right shoulder. He didn’t return before season’s end.

Following the trade of Nolan Arenado this winter, Rodgers looked to have an avenue to everyday at-bats. Ryan McMahon and Josh Fuentes were expected to work primarily at the corners now, clearing a path for Rodgers to take everyday at-bats at second base. Looking beyond the 2021 season, he’d be the likely successor to Trevor Story in the seemingly inevitable event that he lands with another club (be it via free agency or even this summer via trade).

It’s a frustrating setback for the Rockies and their fans, although if there’s a silver lining, it’s that Rodgers’ shoulder seems to be fully healthy for the first time in two years. He was having a monster Spring Training through 10 games, hitting .348/.400/.652 with a pair of homers and a double through his first 25 trips to the plate. At some point early this season, he’ll likely be given an opportunity to seize an everyday job with at Coors Field, but today’s announcement means Rodgers will open the year on the 10-day IL. In the meantime, the Rox seem likely to fill out the starting infield with McMahon and the versatile Garrett Hampson.

NL Notes: Rodgers, Carrasco, Cardinals, Nationals

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Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers left yesterday’s Spring Training contest after pulling up while trying to steal second base. He has since been diagnosed with a right hamstring strain, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com (Twitter link). It isn’t yet clear if the issue threatens his availability for Opening Day. If healthy, the former #3 overall pick looks to have a clear path to everyday playing time at second base. Should he be forced to miss time, Garrett Hampson or Josh Fuentes could stand to see an increased role (the latter at third base with Ryan McMahon playing the keystone). Chris Owings is also back in camp as a non-roster invitee and has plenty of second base experience.

More from the Senior Circuit:

Rockies Place David Dahl On IL, Recall Brendan Rodgers

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The Rockies have placed outfielder David Dahl on the 10-day injured list with lower back soreness and recalled infielder Brendan Rodgers from their alternate site, the team announced.

Injuries have been all too frequent for Dahl, who has dealt with a litany of health woes during his career. He missed the entire 2017 season and sat out a combined 147 regular-season games from 2018-19. Dahl did offer solid offensive production during that period, but his numbers have cratered in the early going this year. Eighty plate appearances into his season, Dahl has batted .189/.237/.243 (16 wRC+) without a home run. As a result, Garrett Hampson has taken over as the Rockies’ regular center fielder of late.

The 24-year-old Rodgers is back in the mix after an unproductive, injury-limited first look in the majors last season. Rodgers hit a homer-less .224/.272/.250 (25 wRC+) in 81 PA before undergoing right shoulder surgery. Still, to Rodgers’ credit, he had a huge season in the minors, joined the Rockies as one of the game’s best prospects and continues to rank high on various lists now. There may be an opening for Rodgers at second base, as Ryan McMahon and Chris Owings have given the Rockies little offense there.

Rockies Option Brendan Rodgers; Peter Lambert Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Rockies have set their 30-man, Opening Day roster, per a club announcement. Notably, top infield prospect Brendan Rodgers did not make the cut and has been optioned to the team’s alternate site. The club also revealed that righty Peter Lambert, who has been sidelined with forearm pain, underwent Tommy John surgery and has been placed on the 45-day injured list. Placing Lambert on the 45-day IL opens a 40-man spot which was needed to accommodate the selection of non-roster players Matt Kemp, Daniel Bard and Chris Owings, which were reported last week.

That Rogers didn’t make the cut comes as something of a surprise. Shoulder surgery torpedoed his would-be debut campaign last year — he received 81 plate appearances before being injured — but the former No. 3 overall pick is still viewed as a top prospect and vital part of the Rockies’ future. While he won’t begin the year with the club, it still seems safe to expect that Rodgers will get a decent run in the big leagues this year, so long as he’s healthy. With Trevor Story entrenched at shortstop through at least 2021, Rodgers’ most immediate path to the everyday lineup is at second base.

The addition of the universal DH in 2020 should allow Colorado to play Daniel Murphy at DH more, with Ryan McMahon occupying first base, which would ostensibly clear a spot for Rodgers. For the time being, though, perhaps the preference is to get Garrett Hampson and McMahon some reps at the keystone while continuing to work Rodgers back into to MLB readiness.

The loss of Lambert not only for this season but for most or all of 2021 also stings for the club. He wasn’t expected to open the year in the Rockies’ rotation, but he was considered to be among the organization’s premier pitching prospects heading into 2019 and even made the back of some top 100 rankings at the time. Last year’s MLB debut didn’t go well to say the least — 72 runs in 89 1/3 innings — but Lambert only recently turned 23 this summer. He may be out until the 2022 season at this point, though he’s at least young enough that he has ample time to bounce back and still establish himself in the big leagues while in the midst of his prime years.

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