Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes. That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.
The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around. After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023. This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services. Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers. Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas. With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.” Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
- Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason. In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings. Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
- It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks. Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024. With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch. “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.
I’m not suprised at the interest in Seth Lugo. His results were good last year, especially after he added a sweeper at the end of the year. I wouldn’t be suprised to see his results improve next year. While he would have more of an innings limit, his lack of innings means his arm is fresher. Overall, a solid addition to any rotation who I don’t think will wow but quietly perform.
Interest in Lugo will climb as the big names come off the board.
Definitely. A good fall-back option
Tek – at 140.1 he was 26th in mlb for IP. Only 11 guys hit 180. With that I’d say there is no real limit to factor in. There may be one technically but any such limit would still get him top 10.
I wish him well but at his age and lack of starting experience for what will be a 35 year old, I hope my team doesn’t go 3/42 – or even more. Some team will based on how desperate so many teams seem to be.
Sucks that the Twins are cutting payroll after finally making and winning a playoff series for the first time in forever:( I get the whole TV deal thing but cmon guys!
Vazquez, Polanco and $6M to Red Sox for Reese McGuire.
– Red Sox reunite with Vazquez, and get their 2nd base hole filled.
– Twins save lots of money (at least 26M) and get a cheap controllable backup catcher.
Get it done.
never let bro suggest a trade ever again
Person who doesnt know a thing about baseball insults rather than talks. With a name like that, what are you 12?
Wait, so you respond with an insult yourself? What are you, 13?
In all seriousness, that’s not a bad idea for a trade (as in packaging Polo with Vazquez), but that’s not realistic, certainly in terms of this off-season. If Brooks Lee is killing it after a few months into the season (if he even breaks camp, which he won’t), then maybe something like this becomes possible. But now or later, Boston would have to throw a sweetener in for two established starters. Perhaps just a couple A ball lottery tickets.
Vazquez is not a starter in Minnesota or Boston. Jeffers in Minny, Wong in Boston. Both are much better than Vazquez. So right off the bat youre overvaluing Vazquez. Red Sox would be eating a bunch of salary to obtain Polanco, not to get Vazquez.
Red Sox have lots of middle infield depth in upper minors. By midseason, they most likely wont need him. There are plenty of short-term, right-handed middle infielders on the market. Reds, Angels, Brewers, Yankees all have them. And almost all are better fielders than Polanco. If its not Polanco, then they’ll just move on.
Minnesota is the one looking to dump salary, that doesnt put them in the drivers seat to pick who and when to make a deal like this.
I don’t think the Twins are concerned with losing Polanco after tendering Gordon a contract.
1. Polanco*
2. Castro
3. Farmer*
4. Gordon
5. Julien
6. Severino
7. Martin
8. Lee
That’s probably the 2B depth chart. It’s deep. Really, really, really deep with the two asterisks likely to be traded.
If Falvey doesn’t move Polanco, he’s straight up incompetent.
Sure, perhaps I’m overvaluing Vasquez and/or Polo (switch hitter, btw). I’m a Twins fan, after all. I just don’t see this as a realistic trade in the off-season, though. We don’t know if Gordon or Miranda will make it back at all, if Buxton will ever take the field (Lewis likely becomes a primary CF, potentially), if Castro and Julien can repeat, or if Kiriloff can stay healthy. Our MIF needs experience until we know more; that’s my reasoning.
It’s a good idea for salary relief for us and plugging holes for y’all. Perhaps after we can find a replacement for Sonny Gray then the opportunity cost here becomes real.
Martras – I don’t completely disagree with you, but why would he be incompetent for holding on to a proven veteran? That seems hyperbolic. I truly hope Castro can repeat his breakout year from last year. I also sincerely hope Gordon makes it back after fracturing his planting shin bone and missing an entire year. However, neither has a good track record prior to their respective breakouts in 2023 and 2022.
To me it all depends on opportunity cost if we were to move Polo.
@ilikesports – The answer is, the Twins wouldn’t, They’re not moving Polanco for a depth player. If they move Polanco for a non-starting player, it’ll be prospects.
Correa’s Plantar Fasciiitis may be chronic and my not be fully healed for 2024. Need to figure out who the backup at SS is among: Castro, Farmer, Gordon and Martin and who among them is playing CF prior to the trade winds start to blow.
But now or later, Boston would have to throw a sweetener in for two established starters.
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Vazquez id definitely not a starter.
Polanco is a starter, but probably not for MN. The entire basis for the trade is that MN would be paying maybe $21M next year for two players sitting on the bench.
no disrespect or anything but buddy boy you act like an old geezer who can’t take jokes, my username is obviously a joke. have a nice weekend
Correa’s plantar fasciitis was caused by a tear which will have plenty of time to heal up. Correa will be the starting shortstop. If, for some reason, Correa is unable to play SS next year, Royce Lewis would slot into the position.
Correa
Lewis
Farmer
Castro
Lee
Martin is no longer considered a potential shortstop after tearing his UCL when his arm was already a iffy for the far side of the infield, but even so, the Twins have tons of depth at the moment.
Polanco will start for Minnesota if not moved. The Twins have as much infield depth as anyone. They have a limited budget and Polanco would save $11M if moved. That’s why Polanco should be moved. They’ll get value back and save the cash.
@RSmith – Why would the Twins do this?
In this trade, the Twins are only saving $7MM/yr off Vazquez. They could probably move Vazquez for a PTBNL with nothing else by just eating $6MM.
The Twins are then throwing in Polanco, who is probably worth 5-10 Reese McGuires on his own.
The Twins are going to move Polanco, and when they do, it will be part of
A) Front end, multi-year rotation arm.
B) Starting caliber center fielder
C) Starting 3.0+ WAR capable 1B
martras:
What? “A Front End, multi-year rotation arm for a good hitting, poor defensive second baseman, who only has 2 years left on his contract?
Also, Vazquez is worth 4M per season, if traded for nothing. So whoever trades for Vazquez is eating 12M for nothing.
You are greatly overvaluing Twins players. You know theres are trade simulators online right?
James McCann is making over 12 million on 2024. Vazquez is worth double the amount you suggest.
Also, martras said “part of” not “exclusively for”, etc. He’s saying Polo would be packaged, which is the most likely scenario if he were to be moved.
“James McCann is making over 12 million on 2024”
James McCann is an excellent example. He was signed it a terrible contract by the Mets (40.6M/4yrs).
Then this happened:
And after two years was traded to Orioles.
“The Mets will send $19 million of the remaining $24.3 million on McCann’s contract to the Orioles and receive a player to be named later.”
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35302384/mets-trade-james-…
That makes McCann worth 3.15M a season, and I said Vazquez is worth 4M a season. Old catchers are worth junk if they arent hitting.
Your value of Vazquez baffles me. You even give examples that make my point.
Shoot, bad Math on my part McCann 24.3-19/2=2.65
—————
Orioles are only paying 2.65M per season for McCann, in a scenario EXACTLY the same that Vazquez is in, just a year earlier.
Every team in the majors has a ‘good defensive catcher at Triple A that can hit a .560 OPS’. They are a dime a dozen. Why would a team be interested in bringing in a 33yo catcher and then pay 12 to 16M to him over 2 years?
RSmith – Yes. A deal involving Polanco will be for one of those categories (or prospects). Polanco doesn’t have to be dealt on his own. He’d be packaged with various other assets to finalize a trade depending on the target.
I expect Polanco is viewed by the league as a 3-4 WAR starting 2B when healthy, He’s currently healthy with no need for any offseason procedures. You’re right, he’s not a great defensive 2B, but he’s not a black hole at the position like he was at SS. Polanco’s wRC+120ish bat more than makes up for his poor glovework, though.
Trade simulators are rough estimates. Declaring Vazquez is worth exactly $X because baseballtradevalues says so is over-simplified and inaccurate. Right now, Spotrac has Vazquez’s MV at 3yrs $20MM. I think that’s a little high, myself, but you’re underestimating team interest in catchers.
Polanco is calculated as a 1.7 WAR player per season by baseballtradevalues, but the consensus across MLB is going to value him at 80-100% higher than that when healthy. Thus, you’d see his value more like +54.0 – 22.5 = +31.5 surplus. In addition, Polanco’s 22.5 salary is part of a team option which adds further value to Polanco’s contract. In fact, you know this yourself since you’re advocating for the trade, and you wouldn’t be interested in a barely passable 2B for the Red Sox to begin with.
If you want a realistic trade scenario
Polanco & Kirilloff or Larnach for Jarren Duran. Maybe the Twins would sweeten the deal a little, but not much with Duran’s offense being bolstered by a .381 BABIP last season.
martras3 hours ago
The Twins are then throwing in Polanco,
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I don’t think Polanco is going to land you the haul you are expecting. Is he even expected to be a starter for Minny next year? I thought Julien looked very good last year.
@JoeBrady – It would depend on what you think I’m expecting. If you think I’d believe Polanco would be able to land a multi-year starter (i.e. Dylan Cease-type), I don’t think that..
Polanco would probably be 60% of the value getting to a good starter, but I have no idea who the Twins would target or how to make a package deal work. Teams with excess frontline starters, who need a 2B, who are also trying to compete have to be an awfully rare commodity. Polanco isn’t going to be the main piece of a package for a starter with more than 2 years of control, either. Everything would shift then… but who ditches a long term controlled high end starter? Nobody.
I do think the Twins would be able to use Polanco as a major component (with maybe a #5-15 prospect) added to get a B-tier cost controlled CF.
When it comes to team controlled 1B, I’m sure they could get a couple years of a Max Muncy type player with Polanco and a similar prospect combo.
Didn’t that Carson Kelly ship sail about 3 years ago? I thought it was reported lost in the Bermuda Triangle.
It’s funny how he waits until after he gets money guaranteed to finally work on his game and being better. What happened to earning it.
There is just no reason to have picked up Kelly’s $3.5mm option. He showed nothing after the trade. Paying that much for a backup C is ridiculous. HARRIS should have cut him and signed him for less if he really wanted him. That $3.5mm would have covered the difference in the Candelario disagreement, and resigned Turnbull.
Tigers have to spend that miggy money on someone…might as well donate it to Carson Kelly.
No!! This off-season is NOT the time to jump in and make foolish moves that may well cripple the team for the next handful of years.
Twins could cut significant payroll on 3 guys they may not necessarily need & will probably be wanted by other teams but the return will not be significant
I could see the
Marlins taking Vazquez
Mariners taking Kepler
Pirates taking Polanco
Marlins have a young staff & could use a veteran leading them back behind the plate. They may be willing to take on the salary for a lot of intangibles he may bring as a veteran to that young staff.
Seattle will be looking for a corner OF with some pop. Won’t cost a long term commitment and the prospect they would send back I think would be minimal. Although it would probably be the best return the Twins get out of the 3.
Pirates need to fill 2B but I don’t think they want to give anyone a long term commitment with Johnson on his way up in the next couple years. This move will cost a minimal ranked prospect and it will show the fans the team is willing to spend some money by getting a guy making his salary.
“Marlins taking Vazquez”
Why would Marlins want Vazquez at that price tag? I know you pointed out the positives, but they would also look at his .598 OPS. Thats a lot of money for a defensive catcher that cant hit and cant run.
Agreed. The Mariners may have interest in both Polanco and Kepler and that could lead to a slightly better return. I don’t think Twins fans need to be concerned about reducing payroll. Because the Twins have done a pretty solid job developing their own players, they can afford to shave some payroll and not see a major drop in talent level.
I hope Carson Kelly can stay healthy and figure out what he needs to figure out at the plate. I think this has chance to be a special situation for both the Tigers and Kelly. The team could have a legit catcher tandem and Kelly can enjoy being part of a re-birth of a down trodden franchise. An experience he missed by one year in Arizona.
My reply was for SBNation.
I always liked Kelly. Hopefully his bat comes back around or I don’t see him lasting the full season. Dingler may be ready by September.
Zero chance the Pirates go after Polanco. Peguero held his own as a 22yr old in Majors last year . They still think Nick Gonzales is a prospect and Bae wasn’t horrible in time at 2b. Even if Cruz is moved off SS, they like out machine Alika Williams’ defense there. All those guys are cheap right now and that’s the major consideration in Pirates annual plan.
Correct.. The Pirates need three starting pitchers and a first baseman more than anything else.
Minimal return for Kepler? He’s a consistent and reliable 2-3 WAR right fielder. On the open market, Spotrac’s Market Value is 2yrs $30MM. Seattle gets him for 1yr and $10MM.
That does not make for a “minimal” prospect. Probably 2 prospects in the 10-20 range for Kepler or 1 prospect in the 5-10 range.
I don’t think the Royals get Seth Lugo. They need to make a run @ the Flaherty & Giollito’s of this free agency class. Maybe Thor really any guys focusing on having a bounce back year that would be moved at the deadline.
If I ran a rebuilding team I would fill my rotation WWF outs those types and after the deadline bring up the youngsters that are proving to be developing the best to see what they got moving forward.
While agree withe first half of your post, the problem withe the second part is that the Royals have proven over many, many years that they absolutely cannot develop their own pitching.
I wish they could, I really do – but as a life long fan, I don’t see it changing any time soon.
Doesn’t seem GM’s are in a hurry to get their man
There are 5 teams that have exclusive streaming rights with bankrupt ballys: royals, brewers, twins, tigers and rays. They will all be last to get paid and be able to break their contracts. Would not anticipate any major spending from any of these clubs.
The Twins contract with Bally’s (Diamond Sports) ended in 2023. It’s over and done with.
Good info. I was wondering how that might impact the Tigers.
Should be interesting what happens with Lugo.
kwERA of 3.3337748344 and a GB% of 44.4%, the GBkwERA is approximately 3.248. That’s what he can control plus groundballs that usually result in outs. Note that the team defence of San Diego saved him about 5-6 runs in the season. This would have raised the ERA to 3.85.
How does a pitcher that has not thrown over a 150 innings in his career get a income projection of 3 years/ 42 million.
Flexibility. In 8 years, he’s started 64 games and finished 66 games. Lifetime ERA is 3.50, only two years below average. SO/W ratio of 3.75, WHIP under 1.2, good numbers. He’s not a middle of the rotation pitcher, probably, but can easily toss 100 innings. I see him as a Whitlock / Houck type who can help his team. Maybe $14M/year is steep but that’s the cost in today’s market. If he pitches 7% of your innings, that’s $100M for a pitching staff. Yikes.
The way I’d phrase it is that he has a high floor. If he pitches like he did last year, he is worth $14M+. But even if he reverts to his previous RP role, he’s probably still worth $8M+.
He’s kind of a Strahm clone.
The Twins really don’t have a lot of trade value to directly upgrade positions to known quantities with some control. They need to fill a CF (because Buxton can’t be relied upon), a front line starter, and they really could use a good 1B.
Polanco or Kepler or Farmer aren’t going to do it on their own by any means so Falvey would need to, once again, raid the farm like he’s consistently done, and the Twins’ farm is starting to get pretty thin now.
You know its a slow news day when you are writing an article about a rumor that a team might have been kind of interested in a guy last winter.