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MLBTR Podcast: Megapod Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss various trade deadline topics, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here
  • Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams – listen here
  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Imagn Images

Royals Sign Seth Lugo To Extension

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2:50pm: MLB.com’s Anne Rogers reports that the 2028 option will automatically vest at $20MM if Lugo pitches a combined 335 innings in 2026-27 or totals 190 innings in 2027.  If he falls shy of those totals, the Royals can still pick up a $17MM club option (or a $3MM buyout).  All told, the deal can max out at $63MM from 2026-28.

12:05pm: Seth Lugo has gone from a potential trade candidate to rotation cornerstone, as the Royals announced Monday that he’s signed a two-year extension covering the 2026-27 seasons with a club/vesting option for the 2028 campaign.  The new deal reportedly guarantees him a total of $46MM from 2026-27.  The money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus for Lugo, $20MM salaries in both 2026 and 2027, and then a $17MM club option for 2028 with a $3MM buyout.  Should Lugo hit the vesting thresholds, that 2028 option will lock in another $20MM salary.  Lugo is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Lugo had the ability to opt out of the final season of his previous three-year, $45MM contract, but instead of facing an opt-out decision this winter, the right-hander will be staying put in Kansas City.  There wasn’t much doubt that Lugo (who turns 36 in November) was going to decline his player option and leave his final $15MM on the table in search of a larger and lengthier guarantee in free agency.

With the Royals also struggling to stay in the playoff race, there was some speculation that K.C. could look to move the veteran prior to Thursday’s deadline.  However, the most recent reporting suggested that not only did the Royals want to keep Lugo beyond July 31, but the club wanted to work out a new contract to convince Lugo to forego his opt-out clause.

Assuming the extension talks indeed cross the finish line, Lugo will join Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha as Royals starters under contract through at least the 2027 season, depending on the specifics of Lugo’s new deal.  Wacha’s three-year, $51MM deal signed last November also came under the specter of a player option, as Wacha had the ability to opt out of his $16MM salary for the 2025 season and test the market.  Ragans inked a three-year, $13.25MM extension last February that was more about cost certainty than team control, as the deal only covers the southpaw through his second arbitration-eligible year — Kansas City still has arb control on Ragan through the 2028 campaign.

Between this trio, breakout rookie Noah Cameron, and the Royals’ remaining year of arbitration control on Kris Bubic, Kansas City’s 2026 rotation may already be set.  This doesn’t include such injured pitchers as Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh, so K.C. has a good deal of pitching depth in place as the club tries to figure out the greater issue of its lack of offense.

Lugo’s career-opening seven-year stint with the Mets saw the righty begin as a starter, before moving into more of a part-time starter/swingman role and then finally as a full-time reliever in 2021-22.  Heading into free agency following the 2022 campaign, Lugo was looking to make a return to the rotation, and landed a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the Padres that included a player option on the 2024 season.  After a solid year in San Diego, Lugo declined that option and returned to free agency to find his three-year commitment with Kansas City.

Over two-plus seasons since his return to starting pitching, Lugo’s ERA has dropped from 3.57 in 2023 to 3.00 in 2024 and to 2.95 this year.  His SIERAs have remained almost identical in that span, averaging out to a 3.98 number that is probably a fairer reflection of his production than his 3.17 ERA over 466 innings since Opening Day 2023.  Despite allowing a lot of hard contact and posting subpar strikeout rates, Lugo has consistently outperformed his peripherals by limiting walks (6.2BB% in the last three seasons) and an elite curveball spin rate, not to mention a fastball that also has plenty of spin despite its modest 91.6mph velocity.

Lugo has gotten a fair amount of batted-ball luck to support his numbers, yet as he is now in his third productive year as a starter, the veteran is clearly doing more than just relying on good fortune to retire batters.  He has also answered all questions about whether he was durable enough to hold up in a rotation by pitching 206 2/3 innings in 2024, which was a key reason why Lugo finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

It was enough for the Royals to commit an additional $31MM to Lugo on top of the $15MM they had already agreed to pay him through 2026.  It’s a significant chunk of change for pitcher’s age 36-37 seasons, yet obviously the Royals have loved what they’ve gotten from Lugo to date and believe he can keep it up deeper into his 30’s.  The $23MM in average annual value is a little eye-opening, though as MLBTR’s Contract Tracker tells us, 11 pitchers of age 30 or higher have topped that AAV in free agency over the last three offseasons.

It is also noteworthy than the idea of Kansas City signing a player to such a contract is no longer as surprising as it would’ve been even a few years ago.  Now that the Royals have moved out of a rebuild period, owner John Sherman has greenlit higher spending, most notably Bobby Witt Jr.’s long-term mega-contract.  The Royals’ playoff appearance in 2024 was evidence that the team’s roster-building is paying dividends, and while their 2025 record has disappointed, there is enough of a pitching core in place to suggest that even league-average hitting could get K.C. back to the postseason.  The club’s recent additions of Adam Frazier and Randal Grichuk suggest that the Royals haven’t given up on making a late run this year, even if bigger lineup upgrades will probably be saved for the winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on an extension.  MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (multiple links) had the details about the two-year length of the deal and the financial breakdown, while the New York Post’s Jon Heyman was the first to report that Lugo would be receiving a guarantee in the ballpark of $46MM.

Photo courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images

Royals Place Kris Bubic On IL With Rotator Cuff Strain

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11:46am: The Royals have announced that Bubic is being placed on the 15-day injured list with a left rotator cuff strain. Rogers reports that the lefty will undergo further testing to determine next steps. In the meantime, the Royals have recalled right-hander Jonathan Bowlan to replace Bubic on the active roster.

10:12am: The Royals appear to be inching more closely to buying than selling given their recent acquisition of Diamondbacks outfielder Randal Grichuk, but talented southpaw Kris Bubic has been a much speculated-upon trade candidate this summer nonetheless. Recent indications have been that the Royals aren’t inclined to part ways with the lefty, and that may be even more true now. Bubic exited his start yesterday after just 2 2/3 innings of work, and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Bubic told reporters last night that “physically, something’s not right” after his most recent outing. Bubic added that he’s been battling shoulder stiffness throughout “a good portion of the season.” It’s unclear if a trip to the injured list is in the cards for the lefty, who told reporters (including Rogers) that he would see how he feels this morning.

If Bubic is indeed dealing with an injury that requires a trip to the shelf, it would be be a huge blow to the club’s already somewhat remote chances of making it to the postseason this year. The left-hander has been a revelation this season as a member of the rotation, with a 2.55 ERA and 2.85 FIP across 20 starts. Those sterling numbers even after this latest difficult outing, where his velocity was down and he walked four batters against just one strikeout while surrendering four runs (three earned).

If the Royals were to sneak into the postseason, a rotation fronted by Bubic, Seth Lugo, and (should he return from the injured list this year) Cole Ragans would be formidable enough to keep them in any series. With Ragans already dealing with a rotator cuff strain and Bubic now seemingly facing some sort of injury as well, however, it could be hard for the club to justify surrendering long-term assets in order to augment the club further.

On the other hand, Bubic stood as perhaps the club’s single most valuable trade asset if they were to move into the sell lane. These injury questions would only serve to worry potential suitors for Bubic’s services, and it’s hard to imagine the club selling low on such a talented player given that he’s controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. Perhaps the news regarding Bubic would make the club more open to parting ways with Lugo, who has a player option for 2026 that he’s very likely to decline. That could be especially true if Bubic undergoes testing that reveals a serious injury that will sideline him for quite some time, but until more information about Bubic’s status is available it’s difficult to do anything beyond speculate.

Even if Bubic is out for an extended period, it appears that a Lugo trade would hardly be guaranteed. Lugo is eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer following the 2025 campaign, meaning the club could recoup value from him even if he walks in free agency this winter. The Royals have also expressed at least some level of interest in keeping last year’s AL Cy Young award runner-up in the fold beyond the life of his current contract, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them try and work out a new contract with him as they did with right-hander Michael Wacha last winter.

Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the club is currently showing “little interest” in dealing Lugo and “would love” to ink an extension with the veteran righty. That stance surely comes from prior to Bubic’s difficult start last night, however, and there’s no telling how the club’s thinking could be changed by the left-hander’s status until more is known about the severity of the issue bothering him.

Latest On Seth Lugo’s Trade Candidacy

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Seth Lugo reeled off another productive start this afternoon, tossing six innings of two-run ball to earn the win at Wrigley Field. The veteran right-hander now carries a 2.95 earned run average with a 22% strikeout rate. This was his 11th quality start in 19 appearances.

Kansas City took two out of three from the Cubs, but they’re still three games under .500. They’re off tomorrow before home series against the Guardians and Braves that’ll take them to the deadline. Lugo would be lined up for one more start against Atlanta until the Royals need to decide on his future. He’ll very likely decline his $15MM player option for next season. Kansas City’s win today pulled them back within four games of the final AL Wild Card spot, pending Boston’s game in Philadelphia. The Rays, Guardians and Rangers all stand between them and Boston.

The Royals would get plenty of calls on Lugo, who’d be one of the best short-term starting pitchers on the market if K.C. made him available. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported yesterday that the Cubs were among the teams that have had conversations with Kansas City about their pitching. Morosi added that the Royals are unsurprisingly more likely to trade Lugo than they would be to part with southpaw Kris Bubic. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears similarly, writing that the Royals are more focused on Lugo at the moment.

That doesn’t mean Lugo is a lock to move. Passan adds that if the Royals feel they’re still in the Wild Card mix, they could keep the veteran right-hander and make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency. That would at least ensure them a compensatory draft pick if Lugo walks. That’d come after the first round if he landed at least a $50MM guarantee; it’d come between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of the third round (roughly 75th overall) if his contract is below $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also suggests that the Royals have yet to decide whether to deal Lugo. He writes that Kansas City feels they’d have a decent chance to re-sign him as a free agent — following a similar path to last winter’s new deal with Michael Wacha after he opted out. If the Royals were to trade Lugo, Rosenthal adds that they’d want controllable outfield help. K.C.’s longstanding issue getting any kind of offense from their outfielders makes that a logical target.

The opt-out clause in Lugo’s contract is a somewhat complicating factor. While he’d very likely be a rental, an acquiring team would assume the risk that he suffers a significant injury in the final two months and then accounts for $15MM in dead money next season. That wouldn’t be detrimental, especially to a high-payroll franchise, but is a downside that teams will want to price into their trade offers if Kansas City shops Lugo.

Bubic, meanwhile, is under arbitration control for another season. The All-Star lefty is playing on a $3MM salary and should push into the $6-7MM range next year. Bubic has a sterling 2.38 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate in 113 2/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

Teams might have some workload questions after the injury limited him to 46 1/3 combined frames between 2023-24. There are few potentially available pitchers who are performing better than he is, though, so other clubs are surely calling the Royals to gauge his availability. The extra year of club control makes him a longer shot trade candidate for a K.C. team that’ll expect to compete next season even if they’re soft sellers over the coming eight days.

Poll: Will The Royals Trade Seth Lugo?

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The Royals’ 2025 season has not gone as they surely hoped it would after they surprised the baseball world with a playoff berth in 2024 and invested heavily into the team over the offseason. While they entered June over .500, a brutal 8-18 swoon last month left the team very abruptly buried in the AL playoff picture. Their 40-47 record leaves them with a 14-game deficit in the AL Central that already seems all but impossible to overcome, and even their Wild Card positioning leaves them 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. A rotator cuff strain sidelined Cole Ragans last month, and the loss of the club’s lefty ace will make it even harder for them to turn things around.

All of that has left the Royals looking like a potential deadline seller. A closer look at the club’s roster reveals very few short-term assets who would bring back a significant haul on the trade market, however. Hunter Harvey is injured, while Cavan Biggio and Mark Canha have both been well below average hitters this year. That leaves right-hander Seth Lugo as the only player on the roster who can depart for free agency this winter who could bring back a notable return for the Royals.

There’s few contenders who wouldn’t benefit from adding Lugo to their rotation. The right-hander was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award last year with a dominant season, and he’s kept the good times rolling in 2025 with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. That’s the sort of front-of-the-rotation, surefire playoff starter that contenders dream of adding to their rotation mix, at least on paper. If Lugo could bring back an exciting return for the Royals, particularly an MLB-ready return, then it could make sense to sell the righty in order to maximize the 2026-30 seasons, after which point superstar Bobby Witt Jr. will have his first opportunity to opt-out of his extension and test free agency.

As clearcut as the argument for dealing Lugo may sound, however, there are real reasons to think the Royals may hesitate. For one thing, a monster return for Lugo is hardly guaranteed. As strong as his raw run prevention numbers have been this year, his peripherals tell a different story. The veteran’s strikeout rate has ticked slightly downward, his walk rate has jumped up to 8.0% after sitting at 5.6% last year, and his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the park last year appears to have been a single-season mirage. With a 4.18 FIP and 4.10 SIERA, it’s possible rival clubs will value Lugo as more of a mid-rotation starter than a recent Cy Young candidate.

His value is further decreased by the $15MM player option he holds for the 2026 season. That’s a figure Lugo would certainly be able to beat in free agency if healthy, meaning that he’s very likely to opt out unless he suffers an injury, at which point the acquiring club would be on the hook for the full price and likely get minimal production. Similar contractual situations have caused issues in trade talks in the past. Both the Cubs and Yankees have entertained trade offers on Marcus Stroman in recent years but found difficulties getting much of a market for his services due to “poison pill” contract options, and even future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had to waive his ability to opt out of the 2024 campaign for the Rangers to be willing to acquire him from the Mets during the summer of 2023. It’s not at all difficult to believe interested teams could have similar reservations regarding Lugo.

If the return for Lugo isn’t robust, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals just keeping the veteran. While Witt is young and under long-term control, other pieces of the club’s core like Michael Wacha, Carlos Estevez, and Salvador Perez aren’t exactly getting any younger. Even younger players like Jonathan India and Kris Bubic aren’t far from the end of their team control windows, and that could leave the Royals motivated to try to make the 2026 season count. Keeping Lugo in the fold would help that goal, and while it’s typically unlikely for a small market club to keep a star player in free agency, that may not be the case in this instance.

With Lugo eligible for the Qualifying Offer this winter, it’s not impossible to imagine him either sticking around on that one-year pact if it’s offered to him or the sides using it as a jumping off point to work out an extension. The Royals typically wouldn’t be expected to have the sort of financial muscle needed to retain a pitcher of Lugo’s caliber, but the veteran turns 36 this November and would likely be limited to short-term offers in free agency even if he isn’t attached to the Qualifying Offer. Should Kansas City extend him the QO, it could further depress his ability to land a big contract. If the Royals like their odds of keeping Lugo around after this year, it would be understandable if they decided not to trade him.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals will ultimately handle Lugo? Will he be traded this summer, or will they hold onto him and hope to keep him around longer term? Have your say in the poll below:

Royals Activate Seth Lugo, Place Lucas Erceg On 15-Day IL

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Seth Lugo made his return to the Royals’ rotation yesterday, and the right-hander showed some rust in allowing four runs over 3 1/3 innings in Kansas City’s 7-5 loss to Detroit.  A sprained middle finger sent Lugo to the 15-day injured list on May 14, and in the corresponding roster move for Lugo’s activation, the Royals placed Lucas Erceg on the 15-day IL due to a lower back strain.

Erceg’s placement is retroactive to May 27, and the reliever hasn’t pitched since May 24.  As Erceg explained to MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters, he was first sidelined by an illness, and then “tweaked” his back while lifting weights this past Tuesday.

“It’s nothing too crazy, but the plan is to give it time to heal,” Erceg said.  “Obviously, don’t want to mess with back issues because they linger more than others, I would say.  We’re just going to make sure I get back to feeling healthy before I get back out there….We’re just going to take it day by day and get stronger, get better.”

Erceg believes he’ll miss just the minimum 15 days, though the K.C. bullpen won’t be helped by the loss of a key set-up arm.  Erceg has a 1.96 ERA over 23 innings this season, with an elite 3.6% walk rate and a career-best 53.3% grounder rate.  A .207 BABIP has nicely aided that increase in ground balls, though Erceg’s strikeout rate has dropped to 21.4% — considerably down from the 27.8K% he posted over his first two Major League seasons.

While these advanced metrics are some cause for concern, the bottom line is that Erceg has been a reliable set-up man in front of closer Carlos Estevez.  Erceg’s 13 holds are tied for fourth in the majors, while Estevez’s 15 saves also rank fourth in the league.  Daniel Lynch IV has also posted strong bottom-line numbers (2.00 ERA over 27 innings) against some shakier peripherals, and Steven Cruz and John Schreiber have contributed quality innings out of the Kansas City pen.  Manager Matt Quatraro indicated that the Royals aren’t planning to have an assigned set-up man in Erceg’s absence, as numerous pitchers could be used on a situational basis.

Royals Place Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo On 15-Day Injured List

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The Royals announced that two of their top starters are heading to the 15-day injured list.  Cole Ragans has been sidelined due to a left groin strain, while Seth Lugo (whose placement is retroactive to May 14) is dealing with a sprained middle finger on his throwing hand.  Left-hander Noah Cameron was called up from Triple-A and will start today’s game against the Cardinals, and fellow southpaw Evan Sisk has also been called up in a corresponding move.

Neither IL placement comes as a big surprise, as it was already known that Cameron would be making a spot start in what was initially Lugo’s regular turn in the rotation today.  Lugo’s finger issue was initially described as inflammation, and it arose in his last outing on May 11.  The official diagnosis of a sprain indicates that a scan revealed something beyond just soreness, so while the original plan was just for Lugo to miss one start, the veteran right-hander will now get at least 15 days of rest and recuperation.

Ragans had one of his own starts skipped a few weeks ago due to a groin strain, and he left during the sixth inning of yesterday’s game with St. Louis due to a similar groin issue.  Ragans will now also head to the IL in order to hopefully put this injury behind him, and the nagging groin problem could explain why Ragans has a 7.20 ERA (eight earned runs over 10 innings) in his last two starts.

It has been an unusual season for Ragans, who is pitching much better than his 4.53 ERA would indicate.  An inflated .376 BABIP is the biggest culprit behind Ragans’ lack of bottom-line success, as his 37.7% strikeout rate is among the game’s best, and his 6.8% walk rate is also solidly above the league average.  With a 2.28 SIERA and a .249 xwOBA, the advanced metrics indicate that Ragans is actually pitching better than he did in 2024, when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Lugo was the runner-up in last year’s AL Cy voting, after posting a 3.00 ERA over 206 2/3 innings with Kansas City.  In something of the reverse of Ragans, Lugo has been outperforming his secondary numbers in both 2024-25, and he has a cumulative 3.01 ERA over the two seasons but a more modest 4.00 SIERA.  Lugo’s lack of strikeouts and his tendency to allow hard contact may not impress the Statcast crew, but his strong control and elite curveball spin rate has allowed him to achieve quite a bit of success over his two seasons with the Royals.

Cameron made his MLB debut earlier this season and was brilliant in his lone start, tossing 6 1/3 shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Rays on April 30.  He’ll get another chance to display his stuff both today and likely throughout at least the end of May, as Cameron is the logical choice to fill one of the two spots that have suddenly opened up in the K.C. rotation.

There aren’t many teams that could easily handle losing two starters at the same time, and the Royals’ depth has been further thinned since Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright are also both still on the IL.  Rich Hill was signed to a minors deal earlier this week, but Hill is only just starting to properly ramp up and won’t be game-ready for a while.  At the Triple-A level, prospect Luinder Avila could be called up for his own MLB debut, or Thomas Hatch could be called if the Royals opened up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kansas City’s rotation has been one of the best in baseball this year, between the contributions of Ragans, Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, and Kris Bubic.  This excellent pitching staff has helped the Royals keep pace in the crowded AL Central despite some very inconsistent hitting, so K.C. will now need both better offense and some reinforcements from beyond the starting five to keep from slipping back in the playoff race.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Ragans, Castro, Meadows

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Seth Lugo was scratched from a scheduled start today against the Cardinals, as the Royals right-hander is battling inflammation in the middle finger of his throwing hand.  The hope is that Lugo will be out for just one turn in the rotation, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star) though “we are in the very early stages of it and we are going to see how [Lugo] responds” to the extra rest.  Last season’s AL Cy Young Award runner-up is having another good year with a 3.02 ERA over 56 2/3 innings, though Lugo’s 4.26 SIERA and his Statcast metrics aren’t nearly as flattering.

It was just a few weeks ago that the Royals skipped a Cole Ragans start due to a minor groin strain for the southpaw, but while Ragans was able to avoid the injured list at the time, his nagging injury continues to be a concern.  Ragans left during the sixth inning of yesterday’s game due to left groin tightness, though Quatraro described the removal as somewhat preventative.  Rookie Noah Cameron will be recalled from Triple-A to start today’s game in Lugo’s place, and Cameron might well be in line for an extended look in the majors if one or both of Lugo or Ragans ultimately require a 15-day IL stint to fully heal up.

More from around the AL Central…

  • X-rays were negative on Willi Castro’s right knee after the Twins utilityman made an early exit from yesterday’s 3-0 win over the Brewers.  Castro fouled a ball off his knee during a first-inning at-bat and was able to play in left field in the bottom of the frame, but was replaced in the bottom of the second.  The injury was officially termed as a knee contusion, and it remains to be seen if Castro will be okay after a day or two of rest, or if he may require a stint on the 10-day injured list.  Castro’s numbers (.235/.306/.367 in 108 plate appearances) are down from his All-Star production in 2024, though he has continued to be a versatile option all over the diamond, already logging starts at five positions this year.  The injury bug already bit Castro once this season, as he missed over two weeks recovering from an oblique strain.
  • Parker Meadows is traveling with the Tigers on their current road trip in Toronto, and the outfielder is scheduled to throw from the outfield to the bases in pre-game drills today.  Manager A.J. Hinch told Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press and other reporters that Meadows’ ability to throw is “the last step for him to hopefully get him to a rehab assignment soon,” and the club will monitor how Meadows’ arm is feeling tomorrow.  Meadows has missed the entire season due to a musculocutaneous nerve problem in his right arm, and his placement on the 60-day injured list will keep him off Detroit’s roster until May 26 at the earliest.  Given the long layoff and Hinch’s observation that Meadows “doesn’t have to be fully 100% back throwing wise to go on a rehab assignment,” it would seem like the outfielder will need quite a few games in the minors to get up to full readiness, so a June return seems more likely.  While the 30-15 Tigers have baseball’s best record even without their starting center fielder, the club will be even stronger with a healthy Meadows, a superb defender who was also an offensive sparkplug during Detroit’s late-season surge in 2024.

Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.

Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.

Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.

This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.

Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.

Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.

While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.

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