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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Acquire Carson Kelly

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The Rangers are acquiring catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers to fortify their catching corps. In return, Texas will ship catching prospect Liam Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Owens to Detroit. Both teams have announced the deal.

Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.

While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.

For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.

In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.

Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.

Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

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“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

The Tigers Are Reaping The Benefits From A Quiet August Pickup

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Over the next two weeks, the Tigers are widely expected to become deadline sellers. That’s perhaps not as set in stone as it once looked — not with an 8-2 showing in their past 10 games and nine games against the Twins and Guardians remaining between now and the deadline. In many ways, they’ll control their own fate. At 47-50, they’re a dozen games back of Cleveland for the division lead and seven games out of the American League Wild Card chase. An impressive run, particularly against those division foes, could change the complexion of the AL Central.

Given their standing in the division for the majority of the season, there’s been been plenty of chatter about the top names Detroit could peddle on the summer trade market. A trade of ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal — who’s controlled through 2026 — seems immensely unlikely, though given the sheer volume of interest and possibility of a team making a stratospheric offer, we still tucked him into the No. 50 spot last week when listing our top 50 trade candidates for this year’s deadline.

Three other Tigers made that list, including top name Jack Flaherty as well as reliever Andrew Chafin and utilityman Gio Urshela. There’s at least one other Tiger that had a clear case to be on the list, but ultimately, we chose an arbitrary 50 candidates to highlight, and not every plausible name made the cut. That, however, doesn’t mean that catcher Carson Kelly isn’t an intriguing trade candidate himself.

At the time the Tigers signed Kelly last August, the transaction drew little fanfare. While he was a former top prospect with the Cardinals and one of the headline pieces in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt from St. Louis to Arizona, Kelly had struggled for much of the 2022-23 seasons after originally turning in a pair of nice seasons with the Snakes in 2019 and 2021. At the time of his DFA and subsequent D-backs release, he was hitting .226/.283/.298 in 92 trips to the plate. He’d batted .211/.282/.334 in 354 plate appearances a year prior. It was an inauspicious conclusion to a nearly five-year run in Arizona.

Kelly didn’t do much to change any narratives surrounding him down the stretch in Detroit. He hit just .173/.271/.269 in 59 plate appearances. He continued to play standout defense, as has been the case throughout his big league career, but he looked the part of a punchless, glove-first backup. Despite that, the Tigers clearly saw something they liked and picked up the $3.5MM club option they’d negotiated into Kelly’s contract — a lesser price than he’d have commanded had the Tigers simply kept him and gone through the arbitration process.

It’s proven to be a savvy move. After a disastrous stretch at the plate in 2022-23, Kelly has rebounded back to the 2019 and 2021 form that made him into a quality all-around catcher. He’s hitting .247/.326/.410 with seven home runs on the year. He’s been even better since a slow start; in 120 plate appearances dating back to mid-May, Kelly is hitting .290/.358/.505.

That production doesn’t appear to be overly fluky in nature. Kelly’s .276 average on balls in play is higher than his career .257 mark, but not by much, and it’s still south of the 2024 league average (.289). Kelly’s 19.9% strikeout rate is the lowest full-season mark of his career (albeit only by a narrow margin), and he’s drawing walks at a solid 8.6% clip. Statcast shows that Kelly is making hard contact at far and away the highest rate of his career (45.4%) and also averaging a career-best 89.7 mph off the bat. (From 2022-23, those numbers sat at 35.4% and 87.4 mph, respectively.) By measure of wRC+, Kelly’s bat has been 10% better than average.

The increased production at the plate is particularly encouraging because Kelly’s glove remains a premium asset. He’s thwarted a whopping one-third of stolen base attempts against him (18-for-54). The league average this season is 23%. Kelly has also drawn plus marks for his blocking and at least average marks for his framing. In 437 innings behind the dish, Statcast credits him as four runs above average. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at a strong +3 in that same time.

Kelly’s production has been sufficient enough that he’s overtaken Jake Rogers by a slight margin in terms of playing time. Though he was signed to be Rogers’ backup, Kelly’s 437 innings behind the plate top his teammate’s 422 frames there.

Given Rogers’ struggles this season — he’s hitting .203/.251/.346 — it’s possible that Kelly has played his way into the Tigers’ long-term plans. However, he’s slated to become a free agent at season’s end. Rogers, who’s a plus defender himself, is controlled through the 2026 season. He’s drawn trade interest in the past and could potentially do so again over the next couple weeks, though this year’s downturn at the plate obviously has an adverse impact on the level of interest Rogers would realistically command.

It’s rare for a team to go acquire a new starting catcher at the deadline, as learning a new pitching staff on the fly midseason is a tall order. There are a few teams on the lookout for catching help, however — the Cubs seemingly chief among them. Other postseason hopefuls that have received minimal production from their backstops in 2024 include the Guardians and the Rays, and the majority of contending clubs would consider the 2024 version of Kelly an upgrade over their current backup catcher.

In retrospect, I’d probably go back and find a way to get Kelly onto last week’s top 50 list, perhaps pushing off one of the many middle relievers who populated the middle tiers. But catching help is rarely as in demand as bullpen help on the summer trade market, and we went with more relievers as a result.

Regardless, Kelly stands as a clear trade candidate, barring a surge against the division-rival Guardians and Twins in the next two weeks. That fact alone is deserving of praise for multiple parties. Tigers scouts and evaluators deserve credit for looking at Kelly and determining that even after a dismal two years, he still had a potential rebound in the tank. The front office deserves credit for not only signing Kelly last year but including a low-cost club option that’s made him into an even more appealing bargain option.

And, of course, Kelly himself deserves praise for the manner in which he’s put that forgettable two-year stretch behind him and revitalized his career. This is his best stretch since early 2021, and having just turned 30 on Sunday, he still has plenty of years ahead if he can sustain anything close to this pace. The big question, for the moment, is whether that continues in a Tigers uniform or whether he changes hands in the next 14 days. He and his teammates will have plenty of say in which route their front office ultimately chooses.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

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Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas.  With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.”  Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
  • Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason.  In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings.  Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.

Tigers Exercise Club Options On Carson Kelly, Mark Canha; Designate Tyler Alexander For Assignment

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The Tigers announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon. Chief among those was the team’s decision to exercise their 2024 club options on catcher Carson Kelly and outfielder Mark Canha. In addition, the club designated left-hander Tyler Alexander for assignment, assigned left-hander Andrew Vasquez and right-hander Trey Wingenter outright to Triple-A, and selected the contract of right-hander Keider Montero. There had been no prior indication that Vasquez or Wingenter had been on waivers, but each of them now figures to have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent.

In addition, the Tigers activated Alexander, outfielders Austin Meadows and Riley Greene, as well as right-handers Casey Mize and Freddy Pacheco from the 60-day IL.

It comes as no surprise that the Tigers exercised their $11.5MM option for Canha after they dealt for the veteran outfielder on Saturday. Given the $2MM buyout on his contract, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Detroit to trade for Canha (and give up 25-year-old righty Blake Holub) only to part ways with him two days later. He figures to play an important role in the team’s offense next season, presumably splitting his time between the corner outfield and DH.

As for Kelly, the Tigers were expected to pick up his $3.5MM option for 2024. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said the team was seriously considering keeping the backstop in the fold. The team already has a starting catcher in place, 28-year-old Jake Rogers, so Kelly can serve as a capable defensive backup, with the potential to be a little bit more – the former top prospect is only two years removed from an above-average season at the plate. For $3.5MM, the Tigers weren’t going to find much more than that.

Alexander, 29, made 25 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first full season as a reliever. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and a career-best 3.48 SIERA in 44 innings of work. Unfortunately, his solid season came to an early end when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain in July.

Vasquez spent the first four months of the season with the Phillies, with whom he posted an impressive 2.27 ERA but less promising underlying numbers. He was designated for assignment shortly after the trade deadline, and the Tigers scooped him up. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find the same success in Detroit. Across 12 appearances, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just 8 2/3 innings of work. He missed most of September with a calf injury, although he made two scoreless appearances at the end of the month.

After spending most of the first half on the injured list, Wingenter made 17 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first big league action since 2019. His 5.82 ERA was troublesome, but his underlying metrics were actually quite encouraging: a 3.43 SIERA, a 3.87 xERA, and a much-improved 3.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then again, he produced those numbers in mostly low-leverage spots, and apparently, the Tigers weren’t impressed enough with what they saw to keep Wingenter on the 40-man roster.

After seven years in Detroit’s minor league system, Montero would have been eligible to elect minor league free agency had the Tigers not added him to the 40-man roster this afternoon. He is coming off a difficult couple of months at Triple-A, but he is still just 23 years old, and evidently, the Tigers like what they have seen enough to keep him around. According to MLB Pipeline, he is the No. 26 prospect in the Tigers system.

AL Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Murphy, Tigers

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The Astros figure to add injured right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back into their rotation mix in 2024, though The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that, with neither player expected to be ready for Opening Day next season, rookie right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown could have opportunities to crack the rotation again headed into Spring Training. The club figures to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy locked into four spots in the rotation, but that would leave an opening for either France or Brown, with the possibility of both if the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation to open the season.

That being said, Rome also suggests other roles for France and Brown are possible next season. In addition to noting that the Astros would benefit from the addition of a veteran start who could provide “stability” to a rotation that suffered from uneven performances in 2023, Rome also puts forth that right-hander Spencer Arrighetti could factor into the club’s rotation mix as soon as the start of next season. Arighetti, the club’s #3 prospect and top pitching prospect per MLB Pipeline, posted a 4.40 ERA in 124 2/3 innings of work split between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, his age-23 campaign.

With so many possible moving pieces, it’s likely that both Brown and France will be used in roles beyond the starting rotation, at least at some point during the 2024 season. France, in particular, is suggested by Rome as a likely candidate for a swing role that would see him move both in and out of the club’s rotation mix as necessary throughout the year. Brown, on the other hand, seems to have a firmer grip on a potential rotation spot, though Rome adds that Brown’s struggles later in the season (including a 6.72 ERA in his final 18 appearances) highlighted the work Brown still has left to do before he can be the mid-rotation arm the Astros hope he can become.

More from the American League…

  • The Red Sox utilized a catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023 to decent effect, with Wong in particular flashing quality glovework behind the plate as the club’s regular starter. Though MassLive’s Chris Cotillo indicates that an addition behind the plate isn’t a priority for Boston after adding top prospect Kyle Teel with their first-round pick in the 2023 draft, he does make note of the fact that Boston was aggressive in their attempts to upgrade behind the plate last offseason. Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello’s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.
  • Although the Tigers have one clear big league catching option in Jake Rogers, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News suggests that finding a suitable backup for Rogers is a primary question for the club as they head into the offseason. While McCosky notes that the club holds a $3.5MM team option over Carson Kelly, he adds that there’s “no indication” as to whether or not the club will ultimately pick up that option. If Kelly is not retained, the club’s top options to back up Rogers internally would be Dillon Dingler and Donny Sands. Dingler enjoyed something of a breakout season at age 24 this year slashing .256/.361/.478 across three levels of the minors, though his .202/.266/.384 showing in 26 games at the Triple-A level left something to be desired. Sands, meanwhile, struggled to a .230/.318/.360 slash line alongside defensive struggles in limited action last season but has a solid offensive track record at Triple-A from his time with the Yankees and Phillies. Per McCosky, the decision on Kelly’s option could come down to the readiness of Dingler for a major league role in 2024.

Scott Harris, A.J. Hinch Discuss Tigers’ Offseason Plans

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Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris and manager A.J. Hinch addressed the media on Monday (including Evan Woodberry of MLive Media Group) to discuss the offseason ahead. Topics on the table included Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, each of whom has an opt-out after the 2023 season; Carson Kelly, who has a club option for 2024; and Austin Meadows and Spencer Turnbull, who will both be eligible for arbitration this winter. Harris also touched on how much the team plans to spend in free agency, while Hinch praised his coaching staff without promising that everyone would be back next season.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his contract, but he is likely to exercise his opt-out clause after the World Series. The lefty won’t turn 31 until next April, and he’s coming off a strong season in which he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts. While he spent June on the injured list and wasn’t quite as imposing upon his return (4.24 ERA in 15 starts), he still looked like a solid mid-rotation pitcher throughout the second half of the season. That being the case, he should be able to command significantly more than $49MM this winter.

Speaking on Rodriguez, Harris said he isn’t planning to negotiate an extension with the veteran starter. The team will wait and see if he chooses to exercise his opt-out.

On the one hand, if the Tigers want Rodriguez back in the rotation next season, now would be the perfect time to discuss a new deal. The club has exclusive negotiating rights until he elects free agency, giving them a head start on other potential suitors. As a dependable left-handed starter, Rodriguez will certainly draw plenty of interest – especially because he is ineligible to receive the qualifying offer, having already received one in 2021. On the other hand, perhaps the team is hoping Rodriguez will decide not to exercise his opt-out after all. He chose to stay in Detroit at the trade deadline instead of accepting a trade to the Dodgers, citing a desire to stay closer to his family. It’s more than possible he’s content to stay in a location he likes and avoid the hassle of free agency altogether.

Harris also mentioned Báez, who has the chance to opt out of his contract after the season. The Tigers president isn’t planning to negotiate with the shortstop either, although that comes as less of a surprise. The two-time All-Star has four years and $98MM remaining on his deal, and coming off a season with an OPS below .600, he’s not going to beat that number on the open market. Thus, the chances of him opting out are slim to none.

While Harris is choosing to let Rodriguez and Báez make their decisions before deciding his next move, he will have to make a call about Kelly. The Tigers signed the backstop in August after he was released by the Diamondbacks. Over the final few weeks of the season, he caught 16 games for Detroit, allowing only a single passed ball and throwing out six of 12 would-be base stealers. He slashed .173/.271/.269. The 29-year-old has a $3.5MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Given Kelly’s unimpressive offensive numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Tigers cut ties with him following the season. After all, they only paid him a prorated portion of the league minimum in 2023, while the D-backs were on the hook for the rest of his $4.275MM guaranteed salary. Then again, Detroit wouldn’t have put the option in his contract if they weren’t going to consider it. Indeed, Harris suggested the team is seriously thinking about keeping Kelly in the fold. “That’s very much an open question for us,” he explained. “We’re going to spend a lot of time on it.”

The Tigers have a capable starting catcher in Jake Rogers, so Kelly would continue to serve as a backup if he returned in 2024. While he isn’t a threat with the bat, he’s a solid defensive catcher with several years of experience in the big leagues. He also comes with a bit more potential than most backup catchers, considering he was once a top-100 prospect.

Two more players Harris discussed were Meadows and Turnbull, both of whom missed the majority of the 2023 campaign. Meadows has been out since early April battling anxiety, while Turnbull hit the IL in May with a neck injury and never made it back to the big league club. The club could non-tender either player this offseason. However, Harris told reporters that he expects Turnbull to compete for a role in the starting rotation next year, which certainly suggests that he is planning to tender the righty a contract. When Turnbull was last fully healthy, he looked like a great starting pitcher, making nine starts and posting a 2.88 ERA in 2021. Harris hopes he can rediscover some of that success in 2024.

Regarding Meadows, the situation is a little more complicated. Without further comment from Meadows or his representatives, there’s no way to know when he could return to the field. Harris says he hasn’t spoken to Meadows in a few months, so he will need to have a conversation with the outfielder before making any further decisions. The executive called such a conversation a “priority.” If the former top prospect remains uncertain about his status for next season, it’s more than possible he could be non-tendered, although as Woodberry notes on Twitter, the team could leave the door open for him to return someday on a minor league deal.

As for potential spending in free agency, Harris didn’t promise any big moves, but he didn’t rule out making some acquisitions. Most importantly, he emphasized that the Tigers aren’t going to buy a core, and any transactions he makes in free agency or on the trade market will be to complement the young players already on the roster. In other words, he isn’t going to try to accelerate his team’s rebuild with a huge signing or a blockbuster trade. Therefore, if the Tigers are to contend in the AL Central next season, it will be thanks to young players like Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and Tarik Skubal taking a step forward. Most likely, this means the team’s competitive window won’t open until at least 2025.

In non-player news, Harris spoke about various infrastructure improvements in the works, including new dorms and a covered field, batting cages, and pitching mounds at Lakeland, the spring training locale for the Tigers and the regular season home of team’s Single-A and Rookie Ball affiliates. The team is also building a new training complex in the Dominican Republic and renovating the clubhouse at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, Hinch reflected on the work his coaching staff did this season, praising their performance. However, he would not say if everyone would return in 2024. This doesn’t mean the Tigers are planning to replace any coaches, but it suggests they’re evaluating the staff and considering various possibilities.

Tigers Sign Carson Kelly, Designate Eric Haase

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5:10PM: Kelly’s club option is worth $3.5MM plus incentives, as per Evan Petzold.  This is less than the $4.275MM Kelly made in 2023, and less than the minimal raise Kelly would’ve received in arbitration, though it can assumed that Kelly can probably make up that salary if he hits his incentive bonuses.

4:11PM: The Tigers’ deal with Kelly contains a club option for the 2024 season, according to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen (via X).  The option essentially formalizes the arbitration control Detroit already held over Kelly’s services, and forces the Tigers to make a quicker decision on Kelly’s offseason fate.

3:26PM: The Tigers have officially announced Kelly’s signing and Haase’s DFA, with the added detail that Kelly has signed a Major League contract.

3:04PM: Carson Kelly looks to have signed with the Tigers, as Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (X link) was the first of several Tigers beat writers to note that Kelly was on field with the team prior to today’s game.  Petzold later reported that the Tigers have created roster space for Kelly by designating catcher/outfielder Eric Haase for assignment.

The Diamondbacks DFA’ed and then released Kelly last week after the catcher cleared waivers, making the 29-year-old a free agent for the first time in his pro career.  Formerly a top-100 prospect during his time in the Cardinals’ farm system, Kelly was one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis, as the D’Backs were hoping Kelly could be their catcher of the future.  A strong 2019 season implied that Kelly was breaking out, yet the backstop’s numbers have eroded since he suffered a fractured wrist in June 2021.

Over 618 plate appearances since that wrist fracture, Kelly has hit only .216/.286/.337, translating to a 72 wRC+.  It had already appeared as if the D’Backs had moved on at the catching position when they acquired Gabriel Moreno last winter, but Kelly’s playing time was further erased when his right forearm was fractured after being hit by a pitch in Spring Training.  As a result, Kelly didn’t make his 2023 debut until June 12, and had only a .580 OPS this season before Arizona cut ties.

The Tigers could view Kelly as a change-of-scenery candidate, and is controlled through the 2024 season via his final year of arbitration eligibility if Detroit opts to tender him a contract.  For now, Kelly is ticketed for backup duty since Jake Rogers is having a solid enough year to establish himself as Detroit’s regular starter behind the plate.  For much of the season, the Tigers have given Rogers roughly twice as many starts as Haase, with the versatile Haase also getting some work as a left fielder.

A Detroit native, Haase hit .242/.291/.451 with 36 homers over 732 PA in 2021-22, with his power helping generate a 106 wRC+ despite the lackluster average and OBP.  Haase was one of the few Tigers players who delivered above-average offense during their disastrous 2022 season, but his own bat went cold this year, as Haase hit only .201/.246/.284 with four home runs over 282 PA.  A big dropoff in hard contact led to Haase’s extended slump, and it now might cost him his spot in the organization.

Haase turns 31 in December, though he still has all of his arbitration years, making him controllable through the 2026 season.  That control, his past power numbers, and Haase’s ability to play in left field (though the defensive metrics don’t like his glovework on the grass in 2023) could get him a look from another team on a waiver claim, especially with catching depth being even trickier to find post-trade deadline.

Haase is out of minor league options, so the Tigers had to go the DFA route in order to move him off the active roster.  Because he was outrighted in the past, Haase has the right to elect free agency and decline an outright assignment to the Tigers’ farm system if he clears waivers.

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