Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Carson Kelly

Cubs Sign Carson Kelly

By | at

The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.

Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.

The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.

That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.

That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.

That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.

Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs, Carson Kelly Nearing A Deal

By | at

The Cubs are reportedly progressing toward a contract with free agent catcher Carson Kelly, according to both Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers confirmed their reports, describing an agreement between the two sides as “close.” The Cubs have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary before they finalize the deal.

Kelly, 30, is coming off a bounceback season with the Tigers and Rangers. Once a promising young catcher for the Diamondbacks, he fell out of favor in the organization with his poor performance at the plate in 2022 and ’23. They released him in August 2023 with close to $1MM remaining on his contract. The Tigers quickly scooped him up, and after the season, they picked up his $3.5MM option for 2024.

That proved to be the right decision. Kelly turned in a strong season at the plate and in the field, allowing the Tigers to flip him to the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline. While he didn’t play quite as well in Texas as he had in Detroit, he finished the season with a perfectly respectable batting line (.238/.313/.374, 99 wRC+) and strong defensive metrics. All told, he produced 1.8 FanGraphs WAR in just 91 games and 313 trips to the plate. For the sake of comparison, Cubs catchers combined for -0.1 fWAR this past season.

Chicago has struggled behind the dish since letting Willson Contreras walk after the 2022 campaign. In 2024, Cubs catchers ranked third-last in the NL in Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) and second-last in OPS and wRC+. According to FanGraphs WAR, no NL club received less production from the catcher position. Needless to say, the front office is aware of these shortcomings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer failed in his efforts to add a backstop at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported after the deadline that Hoyer would continue to pursue catching during the offseason.

Ideally, that would mean a starting-caliber catcher to usurp the incumbent Miguel Amaya. Sharma noted back in August that the Cubs see Amaya as a backup in the long run. Funnily enough, Amaya happened to hit quite well from the day that report came out to the end of the season (.770 OPS, 114 wRC+ in 34 games), but his career numbers speak much louder than that small sample size performance. He has a .657 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 170 career games. His defense has been passable, but not enough to make up for a well-below-average bat. All that to say, the Cubs needed an upgrade.

However, the market for free agent catchers moved quickly this offseason, to the point where Chicago’s options started to look slim. Kelly is one of the few catchers still available who should be an upgrade over Amaya. Indeed, Kelly might be the only everyday catcher left on the market, depending on how you feel about Yasmani Grandal and Elias Díaz (and how much you’re willing to stretch the definition of an “everyday” catcher). Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez are already off the board.

Matt Thaiss, who the Cubs acquired from the Angels earlier this offseason, is nothing more than another potential backup. With Kelly taking the majority of the reps behind the dish, Thaiss and Amaya will presumably compete for a bench role in 2025. Both are out of minor league options, so one will likely be traded or DFA’d at some point before Opening Day. Amaya has been the more productive player over the last two seasons, providing a similar level of offense and significantly better defense. However, Thaiss could have a leg up as a left-handed batter; Kelly bats right-handed, so the Cubs might like a lefty-batting backup. What’s more, the Cubs might prefer to DFA Amaya, who doesn’t have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment should he pass through waivers.

Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

By | at

The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

By | at

The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Rangers Acquire Carson Kelly

By | at

The Rangers are acquiring catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers to fortify their catching corps. In return, Texas will ship catching prospect Liam Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Owens to Detroit. Both teams have announced the deal.

Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.

While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.

For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.

In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.

Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.

Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

By | at

“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

The Tigers Are Reaping The Benefits From A Quiet August Pickup

By | at

Over the next two weeks, the Tigers are widely expected to become deadline sellers. That’s perhaps not as set in stone as it once looked — not with an 8-2 showing in their past 10 games and nine games against the Twins and Guardians remaining between now and the deadline. In many ways, they’ll control their own fate. At 47-50, they’re a dozen games back of Cleveland for the division lead and seven games out of the American League Wild Card chase. An impressive run, particularly against those division foes, could change the complexion of the AL Central.

Given their standing in the division for the majority of the season, there’s been been plenty of chatter about the top names Detroit could peddle on the summer trade market. A trade of ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal — who’s controlled through 2026 — seems immensely unlikely, though given the sheer volume of interest and possibility of a team making a stratospheric offer, we still tucked him into the No. 50 spot last week when listing our top 50 trade candidates for this year’s deadline.

Three other Tigers made that list, including top name Jack Flaherty as well as reliever Andrew Chafin and utilityman Gio Urshela. There’s at least one other Tiger that had a clear case to be on the list, but ultimately, we chose an arbitrary 50 candidates to highlight, and not every plausible name made the cut. That, however, doesn’t mean that catcher Carson Kelly isn’t an intriguing trade candidate himself.

At the time the Tigers signed Kelly last August, the transaction drew little fanfare. While he was a former top prospect with the Cardinals and one of the headline pieces in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt from St. Louis to Arizona, Kelly had struggled for much of the 2022-23 seasons after originally turning in a pair of nice seasons with the Snakes in 2019 and 2021. At the time of his DFA and subsequent D-backs release, he was hitting .226/.283/.298 in 92 trips to the plate. He’d batted .211/.282/.334 in 354 plate appearances a year prior. It was an inauspicious conclusion to a nearly five-year run in Arizona.

Kelly didn’t do much to change any narratives surrounding him down the stretch in Detroit. He hit just .173/.271/.269 in 59 plate appearances. He continued to play standout defense, as has been the case throughout his big league career, but he looked the part of a punchless, glove-first backup. Despite that, the Tigers clearly saw something they liked and picked up the $3.5MM club option they’d negotiated into Kelly’s contract — a lesser price than he’d have commanded had the Tigers simply kept him and gone through the arbitration process.

It’s proven to be a savvy move. After a disastrous stretch at the plate in 2022-23, Kelly has rebounded back to the 2019 and 2021 form that made him into a quality all-around catcher. He’s hitting .247/.326/.410 with seven home runs on the year. He’s been even better since a slow start; in 120 plate appearances dating back to mid-May, Kelly is hitting .290/.358/.505.

That production doesn’t appear to be overly fluky in nature. Kelly’s .276 average on balls in play is higher than his career .257 mark, but not by much, and it’s still south of the 2024 league average (.289). Kelly’s 19.9% strikeout rate is the lowest full-season mark of his career (albeit only by a narrow margin), and he’s drawing walks at a solid 8.6% clip. Statcast shows that Kelly is making hard contact at far and away the highest rate of his career (45.4%) and also averaging a career-best 89.7 mph off the bat. (From 2022-23, those numbers sat at 35.4% and 87.4 mph, respectively.) By measure of wRC+, Kelly’s bat has been 10% better than average.

The increased production at the plate is particularly encouraging because Kelly’s glove remains a premium asset. He’s thwarted a whopping one-third of stolen base attempts against him (18-for-54). The league average this season is 23%. Kelly has also drawn plus marks for his blocking and at least average marks for his framing. In 437 innings behind the dish, Statcast credits him as four runs above average. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at a strong +3 in that same time.

Kelly’s production has been sufficient enough that he’s overtaken Jake Rogers by a slight margin in terms of playing time. Though he was signed to be Rogers’ backup, Kelly’s 437 innings behind the plate top his teammate’s 422 frames there.

Given Rogers’ struggles this season — he’s hitting .203/.251/.346 — it’s possible that Kelly has played his way into the Tigers’ long-term plans. However, he’s slated to become a free agent at season’s end. Rogers, who’s a plus defender himself, is controlled through the 2026 season. He’s drawn trade interest in the past and could potentially do so again over the next couple weeks, though this year’s downturn at the plate obviously has an adverse impact on the level of interest Rogers would realistically command.

It’s rare for a team to go acquire a new starting catcher at the deadline, as learning a new pitching staff on the fly midseason is a tall order. There are a few teams on the lookout for catching help, however — the Cubs seemingly chief among them. Other postseason hopefuls that have received minimal production from their backstops in 2024 include the Guardians and the Rays, and the majority of contending clubs would consider the 2024 version of Kelly an upgrade over their current backup catcher.

In retrospect, I’d probably go back and find a way to get Kelly onto last week’s top 50 list, perhaps pushing off one of the many middle relievers who populated the middle tiers. But catching help is rarely as in demand as bullpen help on the summer trade market, and we went with more relievers as a result.

Regardless, Kelly stands as a clear trade candidate, barring a surge against the division-rival Guardians and Twins in the next two weeks. That fact alone is deserving of praise for multiple parties. Tigers scouts and evaluators deserve credit for looking at Kelly and determining that even after a dismal two years, he still had a potential rebound in the tank. The front office deserves credit for not only signing Kelly last year but including a low-cost club option that’s made him into an even more appealing bargain option.

And, of course, Kelly himself deserves praise for the manner in which he’s put that forgettable two-year stretch behind him and revitalized his career. This is his best stretch since early 2021, and having just turned 30 on Sunday, he still has plenty of years ahead if he can sustain anything close to this pace. The big question, for the moment, is whether that continues in a Tigers uniform or whether he changes hands in the next 14 days. He and his teammates will have plenty of say in which route their front office ultimately chooses.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

By | at

Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas.  With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.”  Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
  • Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason.  In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings.  Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.

Tigers Exercise Club Options On Carson Kelly, Mark Canha; Designate Tyler Alexander For Assignment

By and | at

The Tigers announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon. Chief among those was the team’s decision to exercise their 2024 club options on catcher Carson Kelly and outfielder Mark Canha. In addition, the club designated left-hander Tyler Alexander for assignment, assigned left-hander Andrew Vasquez and right-hander Trey Wingenter outright to Triple-A, and selected the contract of right-hander Keider Montero. There had been no prior indication that Vasquez or Wingenter had been on waivers, but each of them now figures to have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent.

In addition, the Tigers activated Alexander, outfielders Austin Meadows and Riley Greene, as well as right-handers Casey Mize and Freddy Pacheco from the 60-day IL.

It comes as no surprise that the Tigers exercised their $11.5MM option for Canha after they dealt for the veteran outfielder on Saturday. Given the $2MM buyout on his contract, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Detroit to trade for Canha (and give up 25-year-old righty Blake Holub) only to part ways with him two days later. He figures to play an important role in the team’s offense next season, presumably splitting his time between the corner outfield and DH.

As for Kelly, the Tigers were expected to pick up his $3.5MM option for 2024. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said the team was seriously considering keeping the backstop in the fold. The team already has a starting catcher in place, 28-year-old Jake Rogers, so Kelly can serve as a capable defensive backup, with the potential to be a little bit more – the former top prospect is only two years removed from an above-average season at the plate. For $3.5MM, the Tigers weren’t going to find much more than that.

Alexander, 29, made 25 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first full season as a reliever. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and a career-best 3.48 SIERA in 44 innings of work. Unfortunately, his solid season came to an early end when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain in July.

Vasquez spent the first four months of the season with the Phillies, with whom he posted an impressive 2.27 ERA but less promising underlying numbers. He was designated for assignment shortly after the trade deadline, and the Tigers scooped him up. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find the same success in Detroit. Across 12 appearances, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just 8 2/3 innings of work. He missed most of September with a calf injury, although he made two scoreless appearances at the end of the month.

After spending most of the first half on the injured list, Wingenter made 17 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first big league action since 2019. His 5.82 ERA was troublesome, but his underlying metrics were actually quite encouraging: a 3.43 SIERA, a 3.87 xERA, and a much-improved 3.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then again, he produced those numbers in mostly low-leverage spots, and apparently, the Tigers weren’t impressed enough with what they saw to keep Wingenter on the 40-man roster.

After seven years in Detroit’s minor league system, Montero would have been eligible to elect minor league free agency had the Tigers not added him to the 40-man roster this afternoon. He is coming off a difficult couple of months at Triple-A, but he is still just 23 years old, and evidently, the Tigers like what they have seen enough to keep him around. According to MLB Pipeline, he is the No. 26 prospect in the Tigers system.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top