While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.
That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.
It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.
The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.
The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.
Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.
Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.
Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.
FatChance65
Count the Red Sox out. John Henry & Co. only shop at the Bargain Basement…as long as the fannies fill the seats, they’re happy.
Randy Red Sox
Sox will resign James Paxton on a 1 yr -5-6 million deal and call it an offseason save a few M/L signings
Bostonsports85
And that’s the problem with this team.. but in particular the fans if the fans got it in their thick skulls too stop caring about this team ,stop going too games, stop buying memorabilia… U hit them where it hurts.. I’m such a die hard fan that it hurts too even type that but this management needs to be taught a lesson .. and it kills me the way they treat this team they act like there making no money and this team is poor and I’ve had enough . Between mookie , Xander now Yamamoto and Shohei for that matter .. theres a lot of money they could have made from advertising alone and jersey sales etc for Shohei and Yamamoto.. I didn’t expect both or one but when u need pitching the way the redsox do u go all out and do what u need to butt management forgot that … I don’t expect too win the world series every year but I expect too compete in a division that is one of the toughest plain and simple ..
FatChance65
Did we ever think we would see the day when we would miss Dan Duquette?
Fever Pitch Guy
Fat – Most of us have missed Duquette since he left.
You know you’re talking about the guy who stole Tek & Lowe, signed Manny and Wakefield and Damon, drafted Youk and Nomar, and traded for Pedro which led to Ortiz joining the Red Sox.
He’s also an analytics pioneer and architect of the best team in baseball in 1994, the Montreal Expos.
FatChance65
Fever—Good points. I think that Theo Epstein got WAY too much credit for 2004 when that was Duquette’s team. Theo put the cherry on top of the sundae when he got Schilling, Keith Foulke, and traded for Cabrera, Mientkiewicz, and Dave Roberts—key moves by Theo that put us over the top, but Duquette deserved more credit for building that core.
seanmac
The die hards have stopped, and continually bash them on radio. The problem is the pink hats continue to show up and the out of stater who show for nostalgia only.
FatChance65
Sean—I am a die hard that no longer goes to games, and yes, I am an out of stater. The problem is that the Red Sox have priced me out of Fenway Park. I can’t afford to go anymore. What used to be an affordable night out, including parking, is now way out of my budget. I am a person who used to go to see the actual game…not parade up and down for 7 innings buying beer and interfering with the view of the action. My dad took me to my first game at Fenway when I was 13, and he paid $12 per ticket to sit between first base and the foul pole in the lower section. Those seats are now for season ticket holders only. They have taken the game away from the average Joe like me in favor of the Corporate dollars that couldn’t care less about the game.
metslvt17
You can get affordable tickets if you want to
FatChance65
Not for a good seat, you can’t. I don’t call $112 average ticket price “affordable.” Are there “affordable” tickets? Yes, but I’m not driving 2 hours—4 hours round trip—and pay $25 for parking to sit way out in center field; and that’s not including gas and meals. The bottom line is that if you want a good seat at Fenway, be prepared to shell out the money.
YankeesBleacherCreature
@FatChance Same as Yankee Stadium behind homeplate for some games. Those seats are sold but the people don’t care to show up.
FatChance65
YBC—True. Mike Francesa used to complain about that all the time on WFAN. If I remember correctly, those seats ran close to $1000 per game, but I might be wrong.
mab51357
Hitchhike and skip a meal. Lol. I agree with you though. Instead of ownership adjusting and making good seats more available to “average joe’s, which most of us are, we’re expected to make adjustments and cut corners just to see a game live. It’s the same for most teams. Mlb.tv is the next best thing and costs per season about the same as 1 live in person game. Haven’t been to a live game in years(Giants fan since 1963)
SFG.1
Similar to you we travel about 4 hours round trip from Sacramento to Giants games. It’s not cheap man.
-Gas $38 it’s been $5 gal although it’s come down lately
-2 bridge tolls $14
-Parking $53 including fees through the app we use. We have to walk just under a mile to get to the park. We used to park across the street until it hit $100 last year and decided it was time to start walking to save a few bucks.
–On average tickets with fees are $125 in the lower and club levels, but last year I got tickets to a couple of games for $5 SRO. They have in-season deals that pop up like this. The Giants have tall tables all around the stadium behind the last row so you can find a spot to put your food and lean on.
–Food varies $10 for a slice of Tony’s pizza which is one of the best pies in town. Or can go Tri-Tip sandwich or Crab Sandwich which will set you back $18 to $20
–Beer $15 for Coors or Budweiser, I spend a couple more dollars for a craft beer.
Aside from the rare $5 ticket it’s going to average $200+ per person.
The short of it, yeah it’s not cheap. I figure it’s a good $5k+ for 2 people per year to go to 13 games games which is what we can get to.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bostonsports85 – What happens if they sign 2 of Snell, Shota and Monty? Or even one of them? Will you apologize for making assumptions before we even get to January?
Boxscore
Actually attendance was down almost 400,000 last season and if they have another disappointing off-season they could see the attendance crater further. There will be an inflection point where people don’t see the Red Sox as a good team to spend their money on and when that happens it will be difficult for them to change that perception. Their ratings have fallen as well.
Matthew De Lorge
The Red Sox, aside of the height of the Yankees/Sox rivalry in the late 90’s, early 2000’s, has always had the MO of trying to be just good enough. The entirety of the Boggs/Clemens days they often passed on top F/A that would put them over the top, with Rafael Palmeiro being the first one to come to mind.
What we’re witnessing is a return to norms. The years the Sox won it all they mortgaged the team for future years to do so. The wild card has not advantaged any other team more than them, as they can shoot for a low bar and still get playoff attendance.
They are a joke, more so than an A’s, who don’t hide how cheap they are.
99CaptainJudge99
Montgomery and his wife want to sign with an east coast team. If the Red Sox are out then the Yankees, Phillies or the Mets are considered the favorites to sign him.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
It was already reported that Montgomery was beyond their price range.
all in the suit that you wear
I think Boras is looking for suckers willing to overpay at this point.
Matthew De Lorge
Yep, Monty is a #3 starter. I hope nobody falls for the BS
solaris602
Red Sox to media: Any time you post an article about a top free agent, go ahead and mark us down as “interested”. Feel free to make up the rest.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It’s also in the RS’ best interests to drive prices so why not say “yeah, we’re interested, sure I think” when asked for comment.
Brew’88
wow, Nick Deeds is busy today
Yanks4life22
Cashman: why sign him to an extension when we can trade his most motivated season for nothing and then overpay in free agency…genius.
Black Ace57
Yeah but Cashman inherited control of a 90s dynasty another GM built and then paid for a team that won it all almost 15 years ago so for some reason that means he’s one of the best GMs ever. Why? No clue
Rob Schumann
Lol nobody but Cashman considers him one of the best GMs ever. The overwhelming majority of Yankee fans have wanted him gone for years now. He takes a lot of heat off of Hal which is the only reason I can think of for him still having a job. The Rodon signing and the Monty debacle let alone treating Gardner the way he did a few years back should have earned his walking papers but Hal keeps bringing him back.
Black Ace57
It seems Hal and a lot of the media think it. Even some writers here didn’t think he should be fired or on the hot seat. It’s funny because the Yankees and Red Sox have basically flipped places success wise in the 21st century and they have had 5 or so GMs over Cashman’s tenure yet they have won more rings the last 20 years. The way the media treated Epstein, Dombrowski, and Cherrington does not match the kid gloves used with Cashman.
gardyparty
Bader was the best part about that postseason for the Yankees. He actually gave us a sliver of hope.
99CaptainJudge99
To be fair. I don’t think anyone really knew or could predict Monty pitching so great In the playoffs. Let’s leave Cashman alone, obviously he isn’t going anywhere.
gardyparty
I think it’s OK to go for Cashman for the Donaldson deal (for example), which gave us NOTHING, whereas Bader gave us our best chance that postseason. It really wasn’t nothing.
99CaptainJudge99
Yeah I was really not happy about not signing Cory Seager, who was so needed. I was all for him playing shortstop for a few years, then having Volpe or Peraza play short, and then having Seager moving over to play 3rd. Getting Donaldson was a total disaster. Smh
gardyparty
I totally forgot about that Seagar idea. That really would have changed our last two years. Having said that, Seagar is a big injury risk and there’s still a lot of years left on his deal. But I’d have taken 10 years of Seagar over those two years of Donaldson. Might have been my least favorite years as a Yankee fan. And this was a period when Judge won MVP and Cole won Cy Young! I would have liked to have had Seagar those years.
Armaments216
Cashman’s on the fence between either Montgomery or Bader at $180M/6 years.
HalosHeavenJJ
Heyman drumming up interest for Boras.
A holiday tradition.
Bucket Number Six
Boras also represents Bellinger and Matt Chapman. That’s the four top free agents left on the market. What’s the over/under on the number of these guys signing by Feb. 1?
THEY LIVE!!!
@uncle george
I’d be surprised if any of Boras’ clients sign before Feb. 1st. Bellinger might go first if the Cubs sign him or Arizona.
oldgfan
Boras recently commented in the media about San Francisco not being a problem for free agents. This leads me to believe he expects to have a client or two sign there. He has all the top players and SFG needs to sign at least one of them.
THEY LIVE!!!
Boras lubing up the Giants (O) for a major punking. There’s also the Rockies. LOL!!
HalosHeavenJJ
I’ll say 2 of them sign in January. Snell first then likely Montgomery. Pretty much the same suitors.
Someone loses out on Teoscar Hernández and is left with a choice of Bellinger or nobody. Chapmans market is a mystery. Those 2 take longer.
collarboners
As a Giants fan if Snell is getting 7/200 I realllly hope it is not from the Giants. That deal would have bust written all over it. But a 3/90 deal with opt outs minimizes the risk enough that might be a different story. Still want them to go for Monty instead personally
AndyWarpath
As a fellow fan I think I might prefer Shota Imanaga over either. Like most I’m concerned about Montgomery’s ceiling and about Snell’s floor. Imanaga is a bit of a hedge between the two IMO.
collarboners
I would definitely be disappointed in the team if they weren’t at least kicking the tires on Imanaga. From what I’ve read his ceiling is middle of the rotation starter, which is Monty’s floor. Monty’s been pretty healthy and consistent, and if he can pitch his home games in SF and work with their coaching staff that kept Rodon healthy and turned Gausman’s career around he could be well worth the money. You never know with Boras, though
stymeedone
Imanaga is a total unknown, not a hedge.
oldgfan
Do not get your hopes up on Imanaga.
He is Japanese and SFG should not waste any more time on future Fodgers.
Joel P
The Giants just gave some guy from the KBO over 100 million. That would scare me a lot more than signing the Cy Young winner.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joel – Finally a voice of reason. Amazing how some people here are down on Snell just because of his walk rate, talk about misguided.
collarboners
Fever- he walks everyone and can’t stay healthy. That’s the guy you want to commit to for 7 years??
HalosHeavenJJ
It’s the lack of innings that scares me. As an Angels fan I’ve seen way too many high priced mainstays on the IL.
Snell looks like another waiting to happen. And even when he does pitch he never sees the 7th inning. Rarely the 6th. That’s a lot of work for the bullpen.
Yankee Clipper
Interestingly, LAD is once again not mentioned in connection with Boras clients. They’ve got to be the smartest big-market baseball FO in baseball. They always stay far away from Boras overpays.
VincentChase
Yup, the only reason they signed JD Martinez last year was because he was willing to take less to reunite with RVS and Mookie Betts.
THEY LIVE!!!
@ Yankee Clipper
Exactly!!!
Tigers3232
I’m just making an assumption here, but I don’t think it’s so much Dodgers avoiding Boras. I think the Dodgers don’t have the patience usually involved in signing Boras clients and taking risk of coming up empty if they miss and all the other options signed long ago.
THEY LIVE!!!
The Dodgers let Bellinger walk for nothing in his last year of arbitration. Don’t think Boras was a factor? The Dodgers couldn’t even find a trade partner for Bellinger. Is that not astonishing??
Jean Matrac
THEY LIVE!!!, The Dodgers did not let Bellinger walk because he was a Boras client. They let him walk because his arb projection was almost $20M. The choice for them was paying him that much, after he’d averaged a 66 OPS+ over the previous 2 seasons, or let him walk. There was no 3rd choice.
Had he not bounced back in 2023 it would be the consensus opinion that they did the right thing. Even with his rebound 2023 season it’s hard to fault the Dodgers for letting him go, given the cost to retain him, and past performance.
mab51357
That’s the risk with Bellinger. He was horrible for a couple years with LA after some really good years. Now he’s had a good year with CHI. What’s to say he doesn’t regress next year or the year afterish. Some team will be paying him for many years. Very risky. And I love his defense. Lots of money and years for what could be defense only though. Most FA are a risk anyway.
Mojo37
Dodgers will deal with Boras but only when they absolutely must, (Julio Urias is a Boras client and Bellinger obv. ) Friedman and Boras have had words in the past and there is no love lost there. In any case at this point Dodgers are not in the high priced FA market but rather are looking to trade for another big arm.
VincentChase
Anytime I hear of one of the Dodger’s younger players acquiring Boras as an agent, I assume they won’t be there long term, and I try and enjoy the time he is there.
mab51357
Something tells me the Dodgers will be just fine without Commissioner Boras. I think the rest of their division is playing for a wild card in 2024. I think the D-backs regress a little, no clue what the Giants and Padres will look like. The Rockies are the Rockies.
Anthony maresca
That’s exactly right and if the owners were smart they avoid signing any of the remaining top 4 players and let them sit out until March when their prices drop significantly to teach the players a lesson.
Boxscore
That’s collusion.
Armaments216
It may be collusion absent an antitrust exemption.
gardyparty
Boras clients have really started to leave a bad taste in my mouth. I just immediately dislike the player. I know this is unreasonable and he’s the best in the business and he always scores the biggest deals for his players. I just have trouble falling in love with those players. I love Cole, though, and Bryce, and tons of others. It just starts me off on the wrong foot with the players.
Joe says...
Gardy I’d say CAA is just as good without the drama. If you look at the top contracts, they are up there. CAA just got Ohtani 700 million. I think they also got the first 300 million dollar contract as well. Judge didn’t need Boras with his huge payday either.
gardyparty
@Joe I agree. I’m sure they’re all equally opportunistic, I just feel like association with Boras initially makes me dislike the player, just because of how much of a spectacle he makes of himself. I’m sure I’d want him to represent me, I just have trouble warming to his players because he really does make his players feel like mercenaries. I’m going into the season envisioning Soto being a distraction all season. (Can’t wait to watch him play though!) Just imo, Boras makes me reluctant to embrace his clients.
mab51357
Soto just doesn’t seem like a good fit with the Yankees, although Judge might help Soto’s me first attitude. If Rodon pitches much in 2024 he will also become a distraction. Not a good teammate based on what I watched in SF. I was good with him leaving, unlike Gausman. How the hell we let him go still irritates me. Stupid optouts are going to make it much tougher to keep players. “We’ll sign you to a contract and if you pitch good the 1st year we’ll let you leave. Instead of having you for 3 years like we wanted”
Big whiffa
Stay away from overpays ? They just spent a billion on 2 players lol
Yankee Clipper
I never said stay away from “overpays.” I said stay away from “Boras overpays.” Big difference.
Mojo37
Yowser
Tigers3232
Again Yankee, it seems pretty clear the Dodgers have no issue with spending. I’d assume they won’t risk waiting on a Boras client and be stuck going without. They want to be actively early so they are not left options.
Yankee Clipper
Tigers3232: My comment was in response to Big Whiffa, not you. My apologies for the confusion.
Chicken In Philly?
If Snell is truly being offered something like 3/115 with opt outs, then the complete lack of action on the part of Boston Red Sox organization makes this a done deal. They offer something closer to what Trade Rumors predicted (7/200). Is it the best signing? Probably not.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
I didn’t know that Boras was in charge of both pitchers……Marvelous
No wonder why they are both still on tbe Market
Although, I thought Monty would have resigned with Texas.
Orioles just need to open up the bank and see what happens
gardyparty
I dunno if the Rangers have money. They’ve got an outrageous payroll already and they’re on their ass with Ballys.
This one belongs to the Reds
I think a lot of these guys aren’t getting the kind of offers they were told they would because the Bally’s situation has half the league wondering if they get that local TV income.
gardyparty
That’s a great point.
Boxscore
SD saw their TV revenue increase after they got out of their Bally deal.
Prospectnvstr
Lefty_Orioles_Fan: Jordan Montgomery didn’t look RESIGNED at all when he was with Texas. There’s still plenty of time if he wants to RE-SIGN with Texas.
This one belongs to the Reds
Is Lefty Orioles fan related to Mike Golic?
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Ha a grammarian and I forgot the hyphen
User 1413108128
At least you didn’t put the wrong emphasis on the wrong syllable!
Boxscore
If Monty’s smart he’ll re-sign w/ the Rangers. Stacked lineup smart FO.
DarkSide830
Would love to see Monty in Philly.
VonPurpleHayes
That’d be a killer rotation.
DarkSide830
hella
fred-3
Snell is still unsigned because he’s a major regression candidate. I don’t think any team will make his demands.
Joel P
When you win the Cy Young you truly can’t do anything except regress. When you are at the top of the mountain there is only one way to go and it’s not up.
stymeedone
I wouldn’t pick him for Comeback Player of the Year.
gardyparty
That’s a good point, and Snell has won it twice. Whatever comes next will be regression from that standard.
Fever Pitch Guy
gardy – Same thing was said last year when he had a 2.53 ERA and 133 K’s in 92 innings in the second half.
And guess what? He was EVEN BETTER this year.
Name another starting pitcher that has been better than Snell since June 26 of last year.
I’ll wait.
gardyparty
No argument. I really love Blake Snell the dude, and I’d root for him to win three more Cy Youngs, just to prove everybody (including me) wrong. I just wouldn’t want my team investing in him to deliver at this level on a regular basis going forward.
VonPurpleHayes
I love Snell, but there are red flags. High pitch counts. Doesn’t go as deep.
mab51357
The season has 2 halves and wins count in both halves. That said I want the Giants to sign him anyway
Big whiffa
If anything he proved he’s still go it. Was a long while between awards
gardyparty
I know, but it’s really hard to envision him being THAT good going forward. It’s just unrealistic. I love him though.
martras
Snell was good, but hardly great by FIP xFIP standards, and Snell hasn’t demonstrated an ability to beat those advanced metrics.
Basically, Snell got real, real lucky in 2023 and MLB teams aren’t willing to sign a $125MM pitcher who got lucky to a $200MM contract.
Johnny Angel
What a ludicrous statement.
Dynasty
He’s not a prospect. He can’t regress. He can decline.
martras
You don’t seem to understand what regression means.
2.25 ERA vs. 3.44 FIP and 3.62 xFIP.
If Snell were to put up a 4.99 ERA, 3.80 FIP and 3.62 xFIP next year, that would be “regression.” Not decline.
THEY LIVE!!!
It would be both regression and decline. Long term contracts for FA pitchers rarely work out in favor of the team signing them. The exceptions are rare.
Dynasty
That’s just his actual numbers normalizing when his luck finally runs out (presumptively due to a combination of BABIP, LOB, and HR/FB returning to the mean).
outinleftfield
Can you name any that didn’t work out? Those that did?
For every Strasburg (2nd deal), Price, and Corbin that didn’t work out there is a Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Lester, Hernandez, Hamels, Sabathia, Darvish, Tanaka, and Greinke that did.
Cole so far is a great deal for the Yankees.
There are only a few other 6+ year deals for pitchers and it seems most turned out well for the teams.
Manfred Rob's Earth Band
You forgot Mike Hampton… Barry Zito…
martras
@Dynasty – Yep, and now you understand what “regression” means. It’s another word for normalization…
aka: “Regression to the mean”
Dynasty
No. In baseball it means you’re a young player whose skills were developing properly and then ultimately it went backwards. Very different from your numbers normalizing after your fortunate luck runs out.
martras
@Dynasty – I’m not sure where you got that impression, but it’s not accurate to the best of my knowledge.
Here’s a definition for you from Fangraphs. library.fangraphs.com/principles/regression/
Redfish Time
The thing with Snell is that walks and homers scare me. I could live with a homer-prone pitcher who throws a ton of strikes, but the walks kind of nullify that. If he’s a little off he’s not getting out of the 2nd inning leaving the bullpen to work a full load, whereas the homer-prone guy might give up 5 runs in 6 innings on a bad night but still gives the team a puncher’s chance to win while not wrecking the bullpen for a week.
deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger
Here is the problem with Boras: he is like an insurance company, while players are like guys buying insurance. If a high risk strategy gets him clients 15% extra, with an expected 25% range in net outcomes, he gets 15% more in commissions. Some players may get 75% as much as they otherwise could, however, and Conforto/Swisher/Lohse/Bourn mainly that same offseason got screwed even worse. As long as he has more than 1 client, he always takes less risk than his clients.
AndyWarpath
A 3 year- 125M deal with an opt out for Snell is exactly the type of deal Farhan seems to be a fan of. And is also exactly the type of deal I hope the Giants stay away from. I don’t mean it as a comment on whether or not Snell is worth it. But speaking as a Giants fan, I’m just so exhausted by short term deals and opt outs and never knowing who’s going to be on the team a month from now. I just want to buy a dang jersey and watch my team suck in peace. It’s hard to get excited when there’s no longevity to your roster. Probably fiscally prudent, but man, so boring.
Jean Matrac
The short-term deal with opt-outs has worked (Rodon), as often as it has failed (Gausman). I tend to like the approach. I feel like the commitment to Rodon will be more detrimental than the benefit of the commitment to Gausman. It means re-stocking the rotation more often but without having to wait through several non-productive seasons for the longer contracts to expire.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
I guess if LAD won’t shell out a billion for Jordan and Blake, it’s chum for the rest of us lowly sharks…
THEY LIVE!!!
Boras is content with waiting until somebody’s ace or #2 gets injured in Spring Training. Then he swoops in to deliver his damaged goods on desperate team owners.
Yankee Clipper
It was a bit comical how he tried to shop Correa to the Mets because the Giants wouldn’t overpay and that backfired on him too.
THEY LIVE!!!
Correa ranks 31st amongst SS according to Fantasy Pros. That anyone signed him is beyond me yet Boras got top 10 type money for Correa.
fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/ss.php
gardyparty
He got Correa twice as much! If only Correa hadn’t failed two physicals at the finish line. I wonder what his Twins tenure will look like when all is said and done.
THEY LIVE!!!
Terrible I would bet.
outinleftfield
FANTASY baseball? You are just a troll, aren’t you?
THEY LIVE!!!
Carlos Correa is the troll posing as a major league SS.
VincentChase
Hmm.
Snell has a higher ceiling, but Montgomery has been the more consistent pitcher over the previous 4 seasons.
Dynasty
Consistently worse, yes.
PinstripedPride
Go look at the stats for the both of them on Baseball Reference over the last five years. How exactly is Monty “worse” overall? Even if he doesn’t have two Cy Young seasons he’s still a rock of consistency and good numbers.
Fever Pitch Guy
Vincent – Due to health, nothing more. When Snell is healthy there’s no comparison.
outinleftfield
Teams are not looking just at last year and they are not looking back 5 years. For the most part they are looking at 3 seasons.
Snell – 83 starts 436.2 IP 5.25 IP/start 3.15 ERA 3.36 FIP 125 ERA+
Monty – 94 starts 524.0 IP 5.5 IP/start 3.48 ERA 3.62 FIP 121 ERA+
Snell is a slight step up, but they are pretty much interchangeable.
Old York
I’m not liking either one. Based on the Forecasted Run Average for both, they’re seeing an incline in their FRA.
FRA =-4.92283 – 0.07741*(K-BB%) + 0.11961*aEV88.3 – 0.03819*Age Score.
Snell:
2016 23 4.31
2017 24 4.25
2018 25 3.53
2019 26 3.42
2020 27 3.49
2021 28 3.91
2022 29 3.88
2023 30 3.91
Montgomery:
2017 24 4.06
2018 25 4.49
2019 26 3.73
2020 27 3.29
2021 28 3.87
2022 29 4.13
2023 30 4.27
Even during Snell’s Cy Young season, he has the worst difference between ERA & FRA of -1.66.
Either way, I’m not giving these two guys large sums of cash over many years for 4+ ERAs Maybe short-term deals but the numbers don’t suggest they’re getting better.
Brew88
After what Yamamoto just got Snell will get paid. He was lights out in 2023, unhittable with RISP, just keeps on having to prove himself to naysayers.
Old York
@Brew88
Oh, 100% he will. I’m just saying that I don’t see the value for money but that never stopped an owner from paying up for a bad long-term deal.
Brew88
Well, I wouldn’t recommend paying him a long term deal either given his past propensity to go only 6 or less innings. But his game is unique and better than stats (and reputation) imply. He’s good enough put guys on base intentionally to get at the hitter of his choice with out-pitches few can rival. Drives us all crazy of course.
Guybird
Really interesting statistics I am not numbers guy per se, but absolutely respect the data. With no comment about what they are worth. I feel like something about that stat doesn’t capture how guys pitch situationally. I believe I watched almost all of Blake Snells starts this year. He seems to have matured to the point to know how able to get out of trouble. He has learned to pitch with men on base. He also has an elite strikeout capability It seems if you want to win the National League West, you have to beat the Dodgers, and Snell pitches very well against them.
Old York
@Guybird
Ultimately, it’s up to the guy on the mound to be evaluated on what he can control, which is HRs, BBs, Ks, HBP, etc. However, he did benefit from a SDP defense that was one of the better this year. The RA9Def for Snell was +0.27, which means, the defense saved about 6 runs for him. Now, that only increase his ERA to 2.55 instead of 2.25, so not major but still something.
We’ll see how he performs next season. Based on the data above, I would bet on a 3+ ERA at least next season but again, it doesn’t mean we can’t see a 2+ ERA.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
“FRA” is a thing now? OY!! There used to be the Equal Rights Amendment “ERA” and women would burn their brassiere “BRA” when they were marching for the ERA. Now we have FRA.
Old York
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I don’t know. I just like to keep up with what’s going on with the latest and greatest in data.
Let’s hope the women march for the FRA a well It’s been far too long they’ve had to live under the oppressive patriarchy!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
Ignorant – Create a new stat, and they will come. Because using new stats makes them look cool.
desertdawg
What if for once no one would make a acceptable offer to either Snell or Montgomery until after the season started. I know it probably would not happen but it sure would be something to see.
gardyparty
They’ll adjust the level of “acceptable” relative to the demand. That’s what happened with Correa and the Twins the first time.
TrumboRedux
It could. Didn’t that happen with Keuchel (hope I spelled his name right) a few years back?
Fever Pitch Guy
desert – Something similar already happened like that in the past.
They labeled it collusion.
Goin' to Sheetz
Would love for the Orioles to trade for Burnes or get Imanaga, but it seems like the market just keeps waiting for the next star down to sign before anything else happens. No wonder Nola leapt at the chance to solidify his future.
letsholdemandgohome
I had heard but don’t know if it’s true or, that the teams he played for before, Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers, are his first preference.
But it sounds like the Cardinals are not even in the running anymore. Not surprised.
Owner said he was going to increase payroll this season, and already backtracking on that statement.
THEY LIVE!!!
Cards would rather over pay for pitchers on their last legs, innings eaters.
Fever Pitch Guy
lets – I guess you don’t realize Jordan’s wife is a Harvard doctor, she just started her residency at a Boston hospital, he has been working out at Boston College, and they both live in Boston.
So yeah, take whatever rumors you hear with a grain of salt.
CardsFan77
Just like this one! Doesn’t matter where they reside, they can afford to go play anywhere forst of all. Secondly, she took her residency months ago, so if it were a guaranteed m, he would be a red Sox pitcher by this point. Stop using old stuff to determine outcomes…..
Deez Cardinals
Montgomery needs to come home to the STL!! Oh wait they would rather have the duo of Lynn and Gibson!!!! Ughhhh!
towinagain
Don’t count out a Snell/Padres reunion…
Blue Baron
Not happening.
Brew88
As a sportscaster hopefully, he was well suited in his many stints in the booth past few years.
Ranger Danger19
I don’t know about Snell but Montgomery is worth every penny.
Plugnplay
Depends on which teams are interested in the 2. Let’s take the Yanks and Angels for example.
The Yankees need more of a stable 2/3 pitcher, because they have Cole already.
The Angels should be more interested in Gambling on getting that ace they need in Snell. They have enough mid tier pitchers.
slider32
Burns and Imanaga look like better options, Burns has the track record and only costs prospects, while Imanaga is cheaper.
Mojo37
doubtful Brewers let Burnes go until July
THEY LIVE!!!
They’re probably hoping Burnes puts together his best start ever in his walk year and then trade him to a contender for a few top prospects. Dodgers should just do it already.
Mojo37
Not for lack of trying.on Dodgers part. They explored Burnes and Adames. I believe Brew wants to try to contend and will only trade Burnes mid season if they fall out of contention.
Juggy
Heyman must be on Boras payroll
TrillionaireTeamOperator
A lot of these guys still on the market eeem like really obvious question marks.
Snell has two Cy Young’s and a ton of awful seasons in between, so you gotta assume the worst of him, while also paying for the best of him.
He’s worth $40M in his best seasons and he’s barely worth $4M in his worst seasons.
By that rationale I’d give him like 1 year/$40M w/ a 3 year/$100M club option, a 2 year/$26M player option and a 3 year/$60M mutual option.
Blue Baron
Why would anyone be surprised that the market hasn’t picked up during the Christmas-New Years week? It’s a slow news period every year.
martras
The Sports Nation Off Season Simulation is interesting.
15yrs $845MM for Ohtani
13yrs $480MM for Yamamoto
7yrs $210MM for Nola
7yrs $196MM for Montgomery
7yrs $160MM for Imanaga
6yrs $145MM for Gray
5yrs $105MM for Giolito
5yrs $105MM for Snell
5yrs $95MM for Rodriguez
People should let that sink in in terms of how various fans felt about Blake Snell.
DarkSide830
Any model that had/has Sonny getting 6 years at age 34 is useless.
martras
Who thought Ohtani would get $700MM? Nobody.
The point is… lots of pitchers were aggressively pursued in this model but all 30 team’s simulated GMs passed on offering big deals to Snell.
outinleftfield
It doesn’t matter one bit what fans think of a player.
martras
Fans include professional writers and analysts. The point is this. Few people believe in Blake Snell as a top of the reliable ace except his personal fans.
SFG.1
There really isn’t anyone left to be excited about. While it would have been fun to see the Giants land Ohtani or Yamamoto, spending money doesn’t exactly equate to a WS title.
The top 7 payrolls all time.
#1 2022 Dodgers LOL
#2 2022 Mets
#3 2016 Dodgers LOL
#4 2021 Dodgers LOL
#5 2022 Yankees
#6 2018 Red Sox Won the WS
#7 2014 Dodgers LOL
2010 WS Champion Giants #9 $98.6mil – Dodgers $95.4mil
2012 WS Champion Giants #8 $117.6mil – Dodgers $154.5mil
2014 WS Champion Giants #7 $154.2mil – Dodgers $235.3mil
Seems as though the more the Dodgers spend the less they get in return.
Mojo37
See you on April 1-2-3 at the Ravine. Perhaps you can cobble together a lineup by then.
Brew88
SFG bing!
holycow16
Go Cubs Go!!
619MetroFriars
Snell wants to be in his hometown repping the Mariners. These “latest news” articles are worthless.
LambchoP
Any chance the twins can get either one with a 2-3 year deal with player options? Unlikely but possible?
martras
The Twins could pick up either pitcher if they trade Polanco or Kepler. Right now, the Twins are projected at $120MM or so with Kepler, Farmer and Polanco combining to form $26MM of that.
It sounded like the Twins were probably going to operate around $125MM this year. It’s tough to say as the front office is always very guarded with information. The Twins will have anywhere from $5MM-31MM to play with under the $125MM mark depending on who they move.
That said, the Twins cannot continue to operate at $125MM long term after Correa $33MM, Lopez $21MM (2025+), Buxton $15MM, and Vazquez $10MM.
martras
I should add… it’s not going to happen. The Twins do not dole out long term pitching contracts. The ownership had no taste for it in the past.
sfjackcoke
It’s not my $ however if I am the SFG I overpay on Montgomery, no QO and simply none of the risk that comes with Snell. You do NOT want to get stuck with Snell.
Cobb won’t be there to start the season after his hip injury so I would like them to target Stroman or Giolito, sort of leaning towards Stroman. Tony Disco, Stripling, Beck, Wynn and Harrison all would then be there to fill out the back of the rotation, The last 3 all have options, in a perfect world Beck and Winn are stretched out
BetterMuppet:JUDGEorKERMIT?
As a jays fan I really hope Montgomery goes to the Red Sox for a stupid amount and term….Sale 2.0
Trollfree
AtLeast – As long as Cora is manager it doesn’t really matter. He screws up the pitching daily. Fire Cora and Sale bounces back. Add Montgomery to Sale without Cora, the Blue Jays are in our rear view mirror!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – What do you think of Bailey? You don’t think he will help Cora put the pitching staff to better use?
martras
Chris Sale was insanely good in 2017-2018. I’m sure the Red Sox would be okay with spending a “stupid” amount on Montgomery if he pitches like Sale did for a couple years and Boston gets another World Series title out of it.
nickcage49 2
How many words can you write when the message is “nobody knows”. And Herman is far from a reliable source.
ClevelandSteelEngines
Not a fan of Borats. Kinda ruins players’ reputations by souring everyone’s mouth.
User 4223176798
Boras is Farhan’s puppet master. Farhan will be played and at the end of the day, no Snell. Farhan will be used to bid up Snell’s price. The clown still has not figured out that good players do not want to play in a dilapidated crime infested city. Continue shopping at Goodwill Farhan – it’s what hillbilly residents in SF do.
HBRC1987
Giants off season plan: Ohtani and Snell!!!
Reality: Matt Carpenter and MadBum
Tdat1979
Scott Boras has to be a billionaire by now. The amount of money he gets for his clients is insane.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
I don’t understand why reporters have been saying that Giolito is an entire “tier” below Montgomery. Granted, Giolito had an awful platform year. But his body of work is comparable to Montgomery’s- not a tier below. And he’s younger!! Can someone at MLBTR – or perhaps one of my fellow commenters- explain why Giolito has been “placed” a tier below Montgomery?
Fever Pitch Guy
Agee – Giolito was WORSE in 2022 than he was this year. He was good only between 2019-2021.
There’s no comparison, Montgomery has had a sub-4 ERA in every year that he pitched at least 45 innings, and he has a 3.34 ERA over his last two seasons.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
Fever
Thanks for your reply.
No doubt Montgomery has been better the last couple of years. I’m just confused by all the discussion of “tiers”.
Giolito is younger and has had flashes of brilliance (albeit brief – a game or two here and there). As a Met fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in the rotation.
Mojo37
As a Dodger fan I think Giolito would look great as a Met. Anywhere but LA.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
lol. Good one!
martras
Career.
RHP Lucas Giolito = 4.43 ERA, 4.35 xFIP
LHP Montgomery = 3.68 ERA, 3.64 xFIP
Giolito is 2 bad years removed from his last campaign which was comparable to Jordan Montgomery’s typical year, and Montgomery is a lefty.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
Ok, got it. Thanks
martras
Giolito is going to garner interest because he could rebound into Montgomery territory; however, teams determined to make a playoff run aren’t going to pursue Giolito as a first option.
Remaining teams:
Don’t plan to compete so they’re not going to spend much over $10MM/yr.
Don’t want to offer Giolito a long term contract for big money based on the last two years of back end rotation results.
Giolito doesn’t want a long term contract for low AAV because he probably expects to return to form.
He’ll definitely sign somewhere, but he’s probably waiting out the market a little. Teams who are hungry for starters and miss out on the big names may overpay. He’ll have to be careful not to have a Lance Lynn misjudgment and wind up signing too late and being ill-prepared for the start of the season.
178iq
They will both sign with contending teams. They will not Ming with junk teams like Yankees or amped Sox. Boras is in discussions with the dodgers both lefties. One will land there. The other will go to one of the Texas’ teams.
Mojo37
wrong. Dodgers next big pitching get will be by trade.
Fooque2
2 great seasons………..and nothing else…………….no go Snell
The Saber-toothed Superfife
No massive Hype for the American guys?
Really?
Seems like ALL WRITERS have fallen in line with a corporate agenda.
No INDEPENDENT writers?
Or someone has decided, it won’t sell?
ITS EVERYWHERE!!!
WOW…..
AMERICA , HOME OF THE TRAINED HUMAN SEALS….
martras
Sooo… how much did you drink before posting this?
tedtheodorelogan
Is this the same Scott Boras who told Conforto to turn down that 100MM extension from the Metropolitans?
Manfred Rob's Earth Band
Nope completely different guy with the same name.
Jean Matrac
It’s doubtful that Boras told Conforto to turn down the offer, and Conforto just meekly did as he was told. Agents only advise. It was still Conforto who decided to take Boras’ advice, whether that advice was good or not.
Ronl
I would love for the Cardinals to bring back Montgomery. Most likely he is over the Cardinals budget. I see him resigning with the Texas under pitching coach Maddux.
Mac Attack
Montgomery to the Dbacks.
LambchoP
I was hoping Rodriguez would sign with division rival twins before he signed with the Dbacks. Now the best us twins fans can hope for is a Stroman/Montgomery signing. Either of which I’d be thrilled with. even knowing neither will probably happen with our payroll situation. What is management doing anyways? They have to know we need SP after losing Grey, Maeda and Mahle. That’s like half our rotation and we have added absolutely nothing! Get a trade done for Luzardo or something already, because im starting to get worried about our pitching staff for 24:(
mr.srdiaz1972
Snell is in SoCal for a youth baseball tournament this weekend. Perhaps the Angels should be entertaining him.