Dec. 1: The Reds have now formally announced the signing of Pagan.
Nov. 29: The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.
Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.
Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.
Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.
Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.
It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.
Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.
The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.
In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.
He’s a pagan.
The Guardians have offered 15.8 MIL for 2 years and are expected to sign Pagan
Captain
A Pagan and a Friar. But that’s nothing, the Giants had a guy who was an Angel and a Pagan. And once he stole a late inning base against San Diego. Leading to the ultimate headline “Pagan steals key base from Padres.”
Pa-GAN.
When he was with the Padres he was terrible. Best of luck to him.
Scrap heap for Cincy
“Here are all the great to really good numbers from last year for this guy”
You: SCRAP HEAP!
Yeah really good number is you ignore him pitching in low leverage, his low K rate, and fluky career lows in strand rate and HR rate. His FIP hadnt been below 4.20 since 2019, he’s mediocre at best and a terrible fit for that park. But sure if you are a casual and take 2 minutes and look at his surface level stats he might seem good.
Pitching in low leverage doesn’t mean you pitched poorly
K rate? You saying someone has to have a good K rate to be a good pitcher?
His FIP was 3.27. Weird how you ignored that while quoting his FIP the last few years.
Pitching in low leverage means you weren’t good enough to pitch in high leverage. Facts. And yes you need a good K rate to be a good pitcher…. Is that a joke? Very rarely can someone succeed with a low K rate, especially relievers. And lol maybe learn about FIP before using it, Pagan only had a low FIP because of his flukily low HR rate. Not sustainable whatsoever and he was clearly lucky if you look at his career HR rate
You are oddly passionate about telling the world how bad Emilio Pagan is. And I am pretty sure he’s not that bad.
I don’t get it
Lol except I never once said he was bad, you’re just projecting. He’s extremely mediocre and not worth this contract though, that’s for sure. The reasons are pretty obvious which I’ve stated multiple times
Not a casual
Just so tired of so called fans screaming at the clouds when the reds do nothing and shouting in the wind when they do do something
Cause I’m not a reds fan lol
Pagan pitched low leverage because he was awful in 2022 and every time he was given a chance in the first half of this season to get back into high leverage he’d give up a mammoth shot. He finally worked his way back into higher leverage towards the end of the season but the twins bullpen was rock solid by then so he wasn’t needed for anything more than the occasional higher leverage spot
I don’t get it
===================
The issue from my perspective is that the only thing he showed improvement on was HR/FB, and that stat is usually ripe for regression. He had about a 15.5% in the previous three years, and a 5.3% last year. If/when that 5.3% reverts back to 15.5%, so will his ERA.
His K-BB% declined. His CSW declined. His EV was high. I don’t see anything to suggest that he is any different than the 2020-2022 version.
Exactly joebrady. Spot on
His usage rate of pitches varied in 2023 & the fact he adjusted his cutter were the 2 biggest differences…. The 2023 cutter was much more effective…
Which is why is fair to say this is a risky move by the Reds. But not fair to say Emilio is bad. He is a pitcher with several good seasons and several bad seasons. Pitching for the Reds is not as bad as say pitching in Field, but it is maybe a top 3-4 park for hitters in NL.
Better than signing Mike Minor!
Flyball pitcher in that park. What could go wrong?
Def a concern, but last year his HR rate was good. Reds for all their warts have had decent success maximizing what they can get out of relievers. Hopefully they see his HR rate from last year and think in their system they can replicate and it wasn’t a fluke year
Maybe he’ll primarily pitch on the road. I’m not sure if a team has ever done that with a reliever, but it would be funny to see him have something like 50 appearances in road games to 10 appearances at home. I’m sure it could be managed if they really wanted to do it.
Not with David Bell. He never seen a mismatch he didn’t like even when he is on the wrong end, which is always.
Flyball pitcher that had a .222 BABip and is moving to the most extreme HR park in baseball.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Sounds like they got themselves a Tom Cosgrove!
Tom Cosgrove induces far more GB, gives up less HR, and he is making $740k not $8 million. Cosgrove is also not expected to be the Padres main setup man like Pagan and he will play in a pitchers park, not an extreme hitters park.
Not exactly analogous situations.
At least it’s something. Now get a bigger fish.
E Rod Or giolito fingers crossed
Snell..
The weatherman of relief pitching!
I don’t get it…
Idk, but maybe because he serves up some rain-making moonshots quite often? Good luck Cincy!
Seems like a good arm to have in a relief role. Let’s see what his salary will be.
He’s mediocre at best and gives up way too many homers. Bad contract, bad fit
If this was a steakhouse it’d be Sizzler cause it’s very mid.
Golden Corral
Sizzler has been around a very long time. They must be doing something right.
Atleast there’s food !
Lance Lynn and Vogelbach just turned their heads your way, whiffa.
Gwynning
Those two are no competition for Reyes Moronta. He weighes as much as Lance Lynn and is seven inches shorter.
And I was like, Emiloooooo!
I would hope we would still sign Chapman
He’s had walk issues in the past. He’s susceptible to giving up homers.
Sounds like a Reds reliever pickup to me!
I guess Pagan belongs to the Reds!
He’s a bit inconsistent but he had an excellent 2023. Looks like a good signing assuming the money isn’t crazy.
They might have went from a 52 to a 54 million payroll.
Dude your team just got better. Calm down.
Exactly, I don’t know why so many people are complaining.
When your team signs a quality arm, it is a good thing. That us especially when they only had 3-4 decent bullpen arms before that..
People complain WAAAY too much on here.
Because some of us grew up w the team and are disgusted by what its become. Plus arent these sites where fans can voice their opinions?
You can be disgusted. But why complain at the exact moment the team spends money to make itself better?
This weird sense of entitlement from fans I could do without.
Yes, paying customers feeling entitled to something good for their entertainment dollar. Why would they want that?
But the team just spent money to make it better. So why complain now is what I don’t get.
The Mariners just dumped former Red Suarez for basically salary relief. That’s worth complaining about as a Mariners fan.
But the Reds just signed Pagan. This isn’t the time or place for it.
“Sense of entitlement”..The Media often promotes the idea that fanbases inherently “deserve” to have a WS contender. And when it doesn’t happen many of these same “fans” feel aggrieved or cheated.
@Joel P
No, they spent money in the HOPE they’ll be better. It is a poor way to spend scarce resources; and it’s a dumb way to spend extra funds. Pagan isn’t special, he’s a dime a dozen guy, so why is he getting a two-year guarantee at that rate? Is money suddenly burning a hole in the Reds’ pocket? This is the kind of signing badly managed teams make, not adroit ones. Applauding this kind of move is exactly what I heard Tiger fans do when Detroit signed Javy Baez. “Better than doing nothing,” they said. Why? Why is doing something, anything preferable to doing nothing if what you’re doing is stupid? Makes no sense at all.
If you don’t like the entertainment, don’t give them your dollar. If you like the entertainment-enjoy. Especially when a young, talented, winning team improves!
Have you ever tried not being miserable all the time
Not being miserable…are you suggesting not being a fan of a baseball team?
A good signing, yes. Don’t forget some pretty good bullpens have been built from the waiver wire. Pagan is usually ready, able and available, a good skill to have. Cincy still has more work to do, obviously.
Excellent 2023? That’s a stretch lol
ERA under 3
Last time I checked that’s pretty good.
Well yeah if you’re a casual and only look at a reliever’s ERA then sure I can see why you think he had a great year. So great the twins wouldn’t even use him in high leverage lol
FIP was 3.27 last year.
Why are you so passionate about Emilio Pagan? It’s kind of weird.
Passionate? Lol. Again, he was used in low leverage. His FIP was low cause he had an unsustainably low HR rate (check his career stats compared to last year) and had a low ERA cause he had the best strand rate of his career. Both are incredibly fluky and unsustainable… you gotta look deeper man. If he was actually good the twins would’ve used him in high leverage
It’s not a relievers fault if he’s not used in high leverage situations if that’s even true.
Why is this so important to you?
It’s not his fault? What on earth are you talking about? He wasn’t used in high leverage cause he wasn’t good enough…. Why is this so hard to understand? And of course it’s true, it’s literally in the article (which you clearly didn’t read) and if you followed baseball you’d remember when he was used…. It’s not hard to look at box scores or usage stats? Why is it so important to you to defend a mediocre reliever?
Dude this is getting weird
Lol yet you’re equally defending him for no reason?
If it’s weird to point out massive flaws in analysis then you have a weird definition of weird
I like this signing. Sorta wish the Orioles jumped on this. They need a righty in the back-end of the ‘pen.
The fly ball rate actually went up and hard contact was about his norm. Not an expert on these fangraphs charts but it appears he gave up a ton of long fly ball outs in 2023. Only notable difference in pitch usage was use of his splitter dropped 10%. It is always possible he pitched differently in some way because the strikeout rate went down last year (which is actually not always bad depending on the what the pitcher is doing differently.) Perhaps trying to be too perfect used to get him in bad counts or something. Perhaps the split was a problem. It says he just started using it in 2022 so perhaps he has learned when to use it and how. Or perhaps he was lucky. Idk.
66 appearances, 69 IP, for a playoff contender no less. A start and a save, plus a sub 3 ERA. Those darn Reds are dumpster diving again. Actually, I’d say a marginal improvement over Derek Law and Buck Farmer at slightly higher pay.
He also fits into Derek Johnson’s apparent philosophy of having an 8 man bullpen- all getting regular if not too regular usage. Relievers pitch more often-to fewer hitters per ouiting.
See how he likes pitching 1 inning 11 times a week.
Not going to happen. Why bother posting dribble? Using all of the relivers in a bullpen more often but for fewer batters per outing is a growing trend, especially for teams that don’t have $200-250MM for payroll.
A consistent 4.61 ERA n the three years prior to his walk year, and then a 2.99. I’m not a big believer in guys re-inventing themselves at age 32.
If it one year and relatively cheap, it is probably okay. But I’m not expecting much.
He had excellent years in 2017 and 2019. Pretty strange up-and-down career. Relievers in general are often inconsistent, but this dude seems more inconsistent than most.
I’d object less if one of those seasons was closer. But it is three straight weak seasons, followed by one good one. And he’ll be 33/34 during the contract.
Yes, he’s always been fairly up and down – can mix in very good years amidst the mediocre – like a lot of RP unfortunately. But he’ll likely give innings and have good stretches.
I am cautiously optimistic. My gut doesn’t love it.
Nick Martinez or Brent Suter made more sense. Maybe Jakob Junis. Groundball pitchers…
I agree!! But we can sign them too!
My wish list (tempered by realism, obviously) for the Reds is Lugo, Miley, and Nick Martinez.
I don’t like the move because if it goes bad it gives the FO an excuse to avoid free agency next year. The upside is they won’t know that until next year, so they can still spend on 2 SPs this winter. Wacha and Ryu would be affordable on short term deals that won’t make ownership faint.
HOLY OVERPAY
The reds have to overpay. It’s the only way anyone signs in cincy. Facts.
I’m thrilled 1. They signed somebody and 2. They got someone this early in free agency.
Kenta Maeda just signed for 2/24 and is miles more valuable
He doesn’t want to work out of the bullpen which is why he isn’t in LA any more. Reds would need that kind of flexibility from a Maeda.
@Fraham
Absolutely the case. No question at all. The two are miles apart in talent and productivity. As a Cleveland fan, I sorely wish Emilio “Longball” Pagan was still in the division and Kenta Maeda was out of it.
Nah, that’s about the going rate for relievers these days unfortunately. Joe Jimenez got a bit over 8m AAV. I do think the Maeda deal will be a steal though.
Oh my…
Twins fans breathing a sigh of relief.
Not what I was hoping to hear… :\
Yes we are. Ron Davis reincarnated.
Is 8 mil plus earnable incentives the going rate for maddeningly inconsistent relievers?
Too early in the offseason to tell but certainly possible…
Good relievers are going above eight-figures if that’s any indication.
Ladies and Gentleman may i introduce you to the Reds highest paid player, a mid tier reliever.
Maybe the Reds anticipate moving Lucas Sims? Maybe he’s part of a deal to Tampa for Glasnow? He is in the last year of arbitration. He could replace Robert Stephenson for TB. Obviously there would be more involved.
I like that ! I think they are just planning on keeping em all thou and wouldn’t be surprised if lodolo is added to that mix when they add a starter. Then let em battle it all out all year. There will atleast be some good competition in the pen !
I don’t know about Lodolo being the odd man out. I feel like he’s looked better than anyone when he’s on. I still think Greene and Lodolo have the best potential to be the 1-2 of the staff. I like Abbott, but he’s not an ace. I think Brandon Williamson probably makes the most sense going to the bullpen, if they did that. Connor Phillips is in AAA, unless he’s a monster in spring training. Ashcraft probably is your best chance to eat some innings and is a good 4 or 5 guy in the rotation.
I don’t think it’s a demotion sending lodolo to pen. It wasn’t to hader and that’s a fair comp. Him and Diaz would by nasty on the back end !
Ugh
Wasted money!
One good season every 4 years = $16 million. I wish him well in that launching pad in Cincy. Pagan was the epitome of lack of effort guy when he was with the Padres and he is a flyball pitcher and that BABip is not going to stay at .222. I don’t think the next 2 years will be pretty.
The highest paid Red ever. Who saw that coming?
The kind of move the Pirates would make. Good young core, could use a starter or two, watch a number of names go off the board, sign a reliever. Yeah, ok. I feel Reds’ fans frustration.
Should be an interesting few days at the owners meetings next week….for the big spenders, at least
As a Twins fan, I wish the best of luck to the Reds in getting Pagan to pitch well in higher leverage. When the Twins used him in high leverage and runners on, it was meltdown after meltdown.
I swear the Reds could sign Moses and some of yall would just complain they missed out on Jesus Christ himself
Yeah, well the kid from Nazareth is younger and has a better arm
Go ahead talk some frankincense into him.
Doubtful, everyone knows Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball.
This will go down as a very bad signing
I’m more realistic than optimistic or pessimistic… and I can’t really disagree with ya. Hopefully we’re wrong- I don’t necessarily like to root against anyone’s success.
At that price I guess he’s our setup guy. Sims in 7th, Pagan in 8th and Diaz 9th. Gotta admit it’s better than what we had.
He better be…but I agree. We really had no setup guy.
TJ Antone??
Hope he regains his health, because he’s awesome when he is. But you cant count on that after two Tommy Johns.
That is the problem with the front office, they count on people with not good history on the health front. Well run teams have good contingency plans.
Good luck to you, Emilio. I wish you well on your new team. I’ll miss the chance of seeing the 2023 version of you on the Twins in 2024..
The available starting pitchers in FA are being quickly signed off, Reds should make their move soon.
The Reds are an embarrassment – :”Roster Resource projects a payroll just north of $51MM. Pagan will add to that total but quite likely keep the total payroll south of $60MM.” Lord help me from swearing again!
When the Reds are doing well, the tend to have a payroll around 18-20 in MLB (in the smallest market with the least rich owner in MLB). I don’t know what’s to be embarrassed by when they just had $40m+ in contracts from Votto and Moustakas fall off. They still plan to spend more this off-season. Embarrassing should be reserved for the A’s, Pirates, and Rays who are all allergic to spending close to $100m.
What a laugh. The Rays “embarrassing”? No freaking way can the Rays be in the same sentence as the Pirates or the recent version of the A’s, much less have the Reds be more admired than them.
I’m referring to the lack of spending. The Rays are very well ran and have had great success. Their spending IS kind of embarrassing though. Maybe they would have won a World Series if they spent a little more.
You mean like the Padres and Mets and Yankees and a zillion other teams who think throwing money at a wall wins them a World Series?
I’m not saying to throw money at the wall. Good, strategic spending can help move the needle though. The Rays haven’t been able to get over the hump. Maybe an extra $30-40m would have helped them achieve that.
I’m going to (brace yourself) give the Reds the benefit of the doubt and assume they have a plan for him. Perhaps Derrick Johnson has a plan for Pagan to throw his fastball less and the splitter more. I’m going to trust that they, who are getting paid to do this job, know what they are doing. I realize I’m probably in the minority with that line of thinking.
Bizarre deal. He was bad, 2020-2022 so the Reds are paying for his best year, by far, since 2019. Pagan was incredibly lucky wrt fly balls not turning into HR in 2023, and the Reds even gave him a player option to ensure he costs them at least $16m if he’s bad, and they get at best one year if he’s good.
Why would a low payroll team do this to themselves?
Because this is what badly run teams do, rich or poor. The difference is wealthy teams can sweep mistakes like this under the carpet.
Let’s keep things in perspective! Would you rather have Law and good ol Buck or Pagan in the 6th or 7th inning? I actually like pagan more than Frenchy! Get a top end setup guy and a starter and let’s go to war! Little bit of of an over pay to me but it’s a definite improvement over Farmer and Law
I don’t know about this. Could go either way. Pretty risky for a team who needs to get into contention and not waste 16 million on a player who could excel.
Reds are going to pay someone more than Griffey! I predicted this! I told you so!
I would have just kept Moreta and spent the 16m at other positions.
6th team in eight years. If he had debuted earlier, he would have had a real chance to break Edwin Jackson’s record. Jackson was on his 6th team at the same age Pagan debuted.
Reds reportedly still looking for a top of the rotation starter. Let’s acquire Cease, Glasnow or Bieber and an outfielder and get this party started.