We’re less than three weeks from pitchers and catchers beginning to report to Spring Training. While the offseason is theoretically winding down, there are still a number of noteworthy players on the open market. The top unsigned position player headlines the group of remaining center fielders.
- Cody Bellinger: Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer from the Cubs at the beginning of the offseason. That was an easy call as he sought a long-term deal after a successful rebound campaign in Chicago. The 28-year-old is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs across 556 plate appearances. Bellinger’s batted ball metrics (a 31.4% hard contact rate, 87.9 MPH average exit velocity) aren’t as impressive as one might assume from his 25+ homers and early-career power impact. That said, he seemingly made a concerted effort to put more balls in play. His 15.6% strikeout rate last season was a career low, a marked improvement after he fanned in a quarter of his plate appearances between 2020-22. The Cubs are most often linked to Bellinger, who has also been loosely tied to the Blue Jays and Angels at points this offseason.
- Michael A. Taylor: Taylor is a solid glove-first regular. Even as he nears his 33rd birthday, he continues to post well above-average defensive grades. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast estimated he was between five and seven runs better than the standard center fielder in a little under 1000 innings for the Twins last year. Taylor paired that with one of his better offensive showings. He hit a career-high 21 home runs and swiped 13 bags in 129 contests. That came with a subpar .220 average and .278 on-base percentage, as he struck out more than a third of the time. The whiffs are part of the package with Taylor, but he has enough power to profile as a bottom-of-the-lineup regular so long as he continues to defend at this level. The Angels, Padres, Pirates and Red Sox are among the teams that have been linked to Taylor.
- Adam Duvall: It’s debatable whether Duvall qualifies as more than an emergency option in center field. He’s been a left fielder for the majority of his career. The Red Sox moved him more frequently into center last year, an odd choice for a player in his age-34 season. Duvall’s defensive grades in 478 innings of center field work were predictably below-average. He’s still a solid defender in left who can moonlight up the middle, however. More importantly, Duvall had a rebound year at the plate. He blasted 21 homers in only 353 plate appearances, running a .247/.303/.531 slash. As is the case with Taylor, teams looking at Duvall will have to live with some strikeouts and a low OBP. He has a trio of 30-homer seasons on his résumé and might have gotten a fourth last year had he not missed a couple months with a wrist fracture. The Angels and incumbent Red Sox have been tied to Duvall this offseason; Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested last week the bidding may come down to those two clubs.
- Aaron Hicks: By late May, it wasn’t clear how much longer Hicks would remain in the big leagues. He was released by the Yankees as he seemed en route to a third straight poor season. The Orioles somewhat surprisingly added him on a big league deal. From that point, the switch-hitting Hicks had a resurgence. He closed the year with a .275/.381/.425 slash over 236 plate appearances in Baltimore. Hicks walked at a massive 14.8% clip while striking out only 20.8% of the time. That won’t erase the memories of his struggles toward the end of his tenure in the Bronx, but it should land him a guaranteed MLB roster spot again. He’d be essentially a free pickup for whatever teams signs him. The Yankees are still on the hook for next year’s $9.5MM salary and a $1MM buyout on a 2025 option. A signing team would only pay Hicks at the $740K league minimum rate for whatever time he spends on the MLB roster, which would be subtracted from New York’s obligations.
- Travis Jankowski: The lefty-swinging Jankowski had a nice year as a role player for the World Series champion Rangers. He hit .263/.357/.332 and stole 19 bases in 20 attempts over 107 games. That should be enough to land him another MLB deal on a low base salary. Jankowski’s offensive upside is limited by bottom-of-the-scale power. He has excellent contact skills, a patient approach, and enough speed to factor in on the bases and at all three outfield positions. He’s a solid bench piece.
Belli to the Yankees.
I think it’s a great prediction and the player the Yankees usually sign, but unless he plays infield, their outfield is set.
It’s slim to none that they sign Belli. He would be waste to use at 1B while his outfield defense excels. They’re going “full throttle” to resign Soto.
They also have a $17M ($6M buyout) ’25 team option on Rizzo. If Rizzo has a good year, it’s an easy option exercise.
The next free agent 1B class also includes: Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Josh Bell, Rowdy Tellez, Christian Walker, Ryan O’Hearn
Thinking along the same lines, but with Boras, maybe a one year pillow at $24M, with an opt-out after three months….
Do it by ABs. Opt out at every 50 ABs. He can hit a HR in the third inning of like game 12 and then opt out and leave.
They already have Judge, Soto, Verdugo, Grisham, and Stanton… plus Jasson Dominguez coming back later in the season. Why would they sign Belli? He makes absolutely no sense there.
Precisely why they will sign him. Makes absolutely no sense.
Why take a pillow 24m when the Cubs are likely going to offer him 6/150 or more?
@Fanof29teams
Yankees don’t need an OFer. They’re set already and guy won’t be the quality of player that you would be paying for. He’ll go back to the Cubs, must like what happened to Correa and the Twins.
Perfect fit for the Yankees. Overpriced and injured going in. Those days are numbered.
Who can explain Hicks’s year? Thought his career was over.
Michael A. earned his salary!
Duvall had the hottest start of just about any player last yr before injury
He was only good then. He regressed after. Can’t rely on a one month player.
No, you can’t rely on Duvall to put up those kind of numbers throughout the entire course of the season, but he seemingly has a couple months out of the year where he absolute mashes and goes on a hot streak.
He’d be a perfect platoon option in LF and a 4th OF/spot starter/bench bat for some contender.
Then, when he inevitably gets hot, just ride his streak out. It is absolutely insane some of the hot streaks he goes on. He can carry a team on his back when he’s hitting like that.
Plus, he’s just a quality all-around fielder, so there’s some extra value there as well.
I really wanted the Braves to sign him as their 4th OF/spot starter or a form of insurance in case Kelenic doesn’t continue to improve, but just about all their spots are taken up on their bench now.
I’m sure he can find more playing time somewhere, and he very well could be a steal, considering he likely won’t cost very much on a one year deal.
Pads could really use any of Hicks, Duvall and/or Jank
I’d roll the dice with Jankowski or Hicks for the padres. Both cost almost nothing, both bat from the left side.
They could fill the hole in case Marsee isn’t ready next year. Neither player would block a prospect and both would be one year deals.
Jankowski returns to the deep that drafted him? Minor league deal with an invite to spring training
To really determine Hicks’ “good” month, the my would have to do a deeper dive into the teams/pitchers he faced. I believe that would paint a better picture of how much of an actual resurgence it was (or wasn’t) with the O’s.
Hicks’ swing is terrible and he is very, very pull heavy. It’s a recipe for disaster – he’s basically Gallo without the power.
Better than some of the AAAA guys the padres will currently run out
Rehabilitated and rejuvenated away from the Yankees it seems. Many have gone that path.
True, but usually it’s pitchers that succeed away from the Yankees. I’ll believe Hicks when it’s consistent. I watched some of his games with the O’s and saw many of the same swing problems he had with the Yankees.
Again, I’m not stating he hasn’t changed, but I don’t buy it until it’s consistent and for a full season.
O’s fan here so I watched a good bit of Hicks once he joined the team.
His good numbers were partially from improved performance but he definitely had some good luck too. His BAbip was like .350 and some of his hits just made you laugh (Bermuda triangle pop-ups, swinging bunts, etc).
@Clip His BABIP last year was .311 vs .273 career.
Would be nice to have a defender like Michael Taylor in the mix for the Pirates outfield.
My jays need platoon/4th RHH OF. Duvall, Taylor or a grossman type would be nice and from which side is Hicks better? I think Taylor gets an everyday job and duvall may depending on what his priorities are as in money/winning/playing time. Hicks is in a similar vein but he going to want a 1year deal were he gets a good amount of ABs. I think the jays need to free up a spot any day for Rodriguez signing, hopefully trim some of the guys on the 40 man edges and trade a Espinal or Otto Lopez for that RHH bat they need. I believe they could trade either Yimi Garcia or Trevor Richards now aswell with Rodriguez coming in they just make Pearson a full time player then
Jays need hitters, if they can play OF, thats a bonus. Duval i suppose if they are really cash strapped.. Soler fits the bill. They have no use for Taylor, they have poor hitters at most positions already.
Dig Duvall should have been signed immediately after Kiermaier, or acquire Taylor, last year. A RH bat off the bench to face lefties would be nice, one who can play CF.
For those who say Varsho is better in CF don’t understand his arm is weak, the metrics don’t measure that, and teams test his weak arm – which resulted in many assists by Varsho which helped his defensive stats.
And the Jays still need a big bat to start. Two moves (at least) needed.
Jay’s only have Varsho and Kk in the starting lineup who hit left. Why do the Jays need another RHH?
Because either guy will get rest days during starts from lefties, so a righty outfield bat would be needed
The righty bat isn’t a starter in this case, he’d be the 4th outfielder.
Exactly a short Sid platoon guy who could play 100 games in the grass if injuries happen. Jays have 2 starting OFs who are LHH and there backup OF is Biggio as thing are right now LHH. Believe it or now the jays didn’t do amazing agianst LHP so getting a guy who can rake LHP and is ok being the short side platoon and getting the odd day when Springer is DH or if he could play 1st get some extra abs when this guys go to DH
Boatmen, the Jays at this point in the offseason need A BIG HITTER and cannot be picky as to which side they hit.
I get that but why be picky about only wanting a RHH OF? If anything they need a lefty to balance the lineup.
It’s not being picky. It’s about getting the BEST hitter. The gameplan the Jays had last year failed. They’ve decided to nearly replicate the same gameplan this offseason. This team needs a lethal bat. Less than 4 weeks from Spring Training they just need a big bat, no matter what side of the plate they swing.
Hicks seems like a no brainer for most of the league
There’s definitely interest in Hicks considering the late surge an his minimum salary. I’m guessing that he’s waiting for the right fit. At least a solid platoon spot on a contender.
So Dodgers?
Hey Cards, what are you doing?
The Cardinals are about pitching, pitching, and more pitching. They don’t need position players.
Coasting in a meh division.
Coasting to third place
Zzzzingggg….. definitely a major burn….
Twins could pick up Hicks basically for free as Buxton insurance.
It will cost the same no matter who signs him. But his terms are probably all about who guarantees him the most playing time and who of those is most likely a contender.
Hicks fits the Padres budget.
My early wishlist has gone from Belli to Bader to Taylor to Duvall… but it’s probably gunna be Hicks.
I don’t “want” any of those guys either for their cost or because they’re not very good. Bader and Taylor are Grish. D only. FA OF options are slight. I think a trade for an OF is needed, even if they take a risk on an unproven but high ceiling guy who’s about ready to break out ( or no ). I’d rather they take that shot than end up with Hicks.
[SNL Lowered Expectations gif]
It’s your wishlist, Taylor belli and Duvall are all still available, im a crew fan, been sitting here a lil while now and was getting somewhat “bewildered,” i mean I would’ve been stoked with a Santana reunion but then BAM, amazon kicked in the door with their globalist funded bank accounts so now I get to supposedly watch Hoskins mash at American Family Field wherever I’m at with a simple “prime” subscription most already seem to have access to.. also the positive effect I’m hoping this sends rippling through the Milwaukee lineup could be massive, a guy like Adames can go back to being defense first/when he mashes just a bonus but when he does, it’s a 30 mashed taters year, also Yelich being able to remain his high OBP/lead off self with a .780-.820OPS, and the younger fellas like Churio/Mitchell/Frelick/Weimer/Black/Turang (any of whom aside from Turing could break out and turn out to be an offensive powerhouse) because all have various traits/raw abilities of different kinds that are seemingly necessary to become a solid MLB contributor, whether it’s contact/speed or power/speed or all the above they are all good enough defensively minus black that whatever u get outta the bat is a bonus and with a guy like Hoskins taking pressure off that lineup I’m expecting guys to slide into roles/get comfortable and have great opportunity to really find themselves as major league players with Yelich, Contreras, Hoskins and a lesser extent Adames doing most of the heavy lifting, The MLB ready talent the Crew has is off the charts and I don’t say that strictly as a “homer” guys like Uribe and Mitchell have already excelled in their brief time in the majors, and those who don’t (turang/weimer) can go to the minors with no pressure and get it fixed, it’s way different than it was for Keston Hiura, the way he excelled in 2019 almost put more pressure on his development and it must’ve been a really tough spot, I wish he could come back for another shot with a Crew like this where there’s other guys expected to step up/develop and it’s not him or some below “WAR” street free agent, Keston is still what 26 maybe 27, with his pure mashing ability to hit right handed pitching to right field with power, I mean he’s the best at it I’ve seen since Braun, Contreras is no slouch at that either but doesn’t nearly have the line drive power/ability to barrel the ball over the fence down the right field line like hiura, also hiura graded out as near average defender in left/1st and even if he’s not slugging he’ll still get on base/steal not to mention seemingly contrary to popular belief he can actually play second and possibly even third (third in a real real pinch) but with the high floor on base offensive profile (I get he strikes out a lot but so does gallo+so many others) Keston is literally that but much younger (I get probably not AS solid defensively as Gallo) but he offers base running ability and versatility and seems like a fantastic clubhouse guy, please Matt Arnold Keston belongs on a 40 man MLB roster, I know he’s not your guy/pick but still come to your senses, you’ve been a great GM thus far, the second I heard Craig split I thought u guys better give that job to Murph and signing Hoskins/seemingly holding onto the young guys and giving them chances to step up on a contending team so the team as a whole has a chance to transition into the next competitive window without having to rebuild well, its all on top of other seemingly fantastic moves you’ve made.. but it only takes one “oh s**t” to undue 100 “atta boys” and when Keston ends up mashing in Cleveland or perhaps Pittsburgh that’s going to be one big “oh s**t” and it’s gonna suck! But overall point is hang in there, u never know when your team will finally get their heads out of wherever they’ve stuck it and if you’re concerned your team will never get their craniums retrieved well again all Crew games should be available on “prime” so go Crew and we’d be happy to have more revenue to re-sign some of these young guys when they inevitably become superstars lol!
I’ll wait for the movie. Too long
Chuck- I’ve had to temper my ambitions as I learnt of the team’s intent to reset the CBT penalties. Kinda took me by surprise; I was a little shortsighted in that regard. Makes sense when you look at the bigger picture. Anyhow, best of luck to your Brew Crew until we meet in the Playoffs! Your Central could be won by any team in ’24, that’s my gut as of right now! Aloha
Hicks is a part time player now, but he was great for the O’s. Excellent AB’s. Patient at the plate to drive up pitch counts
Hicks was huge in Baltimore. Mullins goes down with that groin injury. He steps in with veteran production and presence which came in handy because prospect Cowser struggled tremendously.
Yankees should sign Hicks. Give him a 90 million dollar contract.
Or at least another $70 million.
I hoping there was a comment like this. I was hoping it was more like 50 million dollars? “Who do you think Hicks kidnapped Chelsea Clinton?”
How bout Houston. They are looking at a left handed bat. Not sure if all of these fit bill. But Bellinger think too much for them Would Jankowski fit
Jank would be a great fit for the Stros, no doubt. Just don’t expect many HRs but he’s a solid 4/5 OFer.
I’m still surprised Kiermaier had to settle for one year, $10 million. He was worth 3.9 WAR in only 400 plate appearances last season, and had his best season with the bat since 2017.
KK has been underrated and undervalued for almost a decade. His recklessness has at times led to injuries, but you have to love his determination. Rays HOF CF!
If joe mauer got into the Hall of Fame, then it will be a joke if Pujols is rejected from the Hall of Fame.
Why would Pujols not get in?
He should but they might end up saying that he doesn’t have the numbers for it (even though they let joe mauer in which is laughable)
There is zero chance that Pujols doesn’t get in. The only thing that would prevent it would be proof that he used steroids, and while there were rumors throughout the years, there was never any concrete evidence that he did them.
In what world does Pujols not have the numbers for the HOF? Am I being punked? 3000 hits, 700 HRs, 2 WS Championships, MVP x 3, All Star x 11, RotY, GGs, Silver Sluggers…am I missing something?
Never said I agreed with Albert being rejected.
You’re being punked.
No he isn’t
Are you perhaps thinking of Molina? Pretty comparable WAR numbers to Mauer, albeit they were very different players. He likely ends up in Cooperstown.
Pujols should get 99%+ of the vote on his 700+ HRs alone (which many would argue is an impressive total).
Why would someone need to argue that >700 HR is impressive?
Many would say only four men in history have hit 700 home runs in history. This is thought to be a rare accomplishment considering the tens of thousands of men who have played the game a major league level.
Don’t think Hicks is a center fielder anymore. His defense deteriorated to the point he was playing left and Judge was in center.
Hicks is arguably not even ML-caliber anymore, let alone a starter, but especially not a CFer.
It’s t8me for Jed and the Cubs to re-sign Bellinger. 6/170 opt out after 3. Incentives can earn a 7th year. It could potentially be worth 200
I think Bellinger contract will not age well; he had a lot of good fortune this year. Why I don’t think he will sign a one year contract again; he is going take advantage of the situation and get a 4/5 years at least contract.
Never been the same since he knocked his shoulder out of socket celebrating his big home run game 7 against the Braves in the 2020 post season.
When you say “fortune” do you mean he did a better job of shortening his swing on 2 strikes and poking the ball for base hits?
He changed his two-strike approach last season which is evident in public data.
Yea, I’m just not sure what “fortune” means. If that means he was lucky then I guess you’re taking a long look at Matt Chapman because the data says he was unlucky.
Is that really how he hurt his shoulder?
Bellinger is an interesting situation where he seems like someone who could potentially have to settle for a series of 1-2 year deals and wind up making close to whatever a 5-8 year deal would have paid him anyway, even though a 5-8 year deal seems to scare every team too much and seemingly every team has an in house option or thinks there is a cheaper option or feels there is a prospect that has as much or more on field value than Bellinger does.
It’s funny that a sport that seemingly has endless roster spots and roster configurations occasionally has nowhere to put a particular player, even though that player is still very productive and doesn’t have any reported personality or PR issues, etc. It happens sometimes. Seems like there is a handful of high profile players that get pushed out of the game early for whatever reason and Bellinger seems like one of those players nobody wants to bank on or employ, even though there’s really nothing wrong with him and by most standards he is entering his prime. Most guys with his track record and his age would be fielding multiple offers of like 6-10 years at $23M to $43M a season right now and Bellinger can’t seem to generate any interest from anybody, apart from possibly returning to the Cubs on another 1 year deal.
Hicks seems like he’s in a position of wondering if he can secure an additional $11M or more guaranteed from 2025 and beyond (the value of his option year minus the buyout) and if he doesn’t think that can happen for him or he doesn’t want to put in the work, he might as well effectively retire right now, cash the $10.5M guaranteed he has left on his deal and just focus on golf, which is clearly his true passion (and there’s nothing wrong with that)
He wants to ball out this year, he’s in a “contract year type” situation. If he retires, he forfeits any future pay. Doubtful he goes that road, but we shall see!
Like I said- if he believes he can rediscover his peak form and beat the option on the open market, of course he should do that.
I honestly think if he has a complete return to form, he’d get a minimum of 2 years/$25M and as much as 3 years/$70M- but we are talking like 3+ WAR, 10+ HR’s, top 10 walk rate in the league, .275 BA w/ RISP or better, etc. which is a tall order.
If he’s wildly mediocre or struggles and has to bounce around rosters, then it probably wasn’t worth it and he retires.
I’m pretty sure Hicks isn’t getting 3/70
I’m not saying he is. There’s a very good chance that Hicks is done. But he did just show on IG yesterday that he’s at a training facility taking BP, so he’s clearly at least going to attempt to mount a come back of sorts and get signed by someone for 2024.
When the Yankees signed Hicks to that 7 year/$70M extension, Hicks had been putting up over 4 WAR over barely 80 games a season as a platoon player and over 5 WAR over less than 130 games per season primarily as a starter.
Most guys who play that kind of baseball tend to get $15M to $30M a season, depending on their peripherals.
Cashman was applying a philosophy at the time of convincing guys who were on pace for say, 4 years/$64M (Hicks)or 4 years/$90M (LeMahieu) in free agency, to take that money over an extra 2-3 years in order to lower the AAV, thus lowering the luxury tax hit on the team, keeping them on the Yankees and keeping them on a guaranteed contract longer. Cashman probably arguing that DJL/Hicks were unlikely to match or get significantly more at the conclusion of those hypothetical shorter term, higher AAV contract structures, so why not take that money over a couple extra seasons? It was Cashman’s version of a lot of other teams deferring payments until much later, like how the Dodgers nowadays sign guys to tens of millions a season and defer 90% of it until a decade later.
So I am saying, if Hicks somehow magically returned to being able to stay healthy and productive over 130-ish games and produced 6 WAR or platooned and generated 4..2 WAR over 81 games or something, he’d justifiably line himself up for around $20M a season or better and a 3 year/$70M deal wouldn’t be out of the question if Hicks was at his peak value.
But the reality is, at this point he’s probably, at best, a 3.5 WAR player over 150 games or so and there are so many of those guys out there he’d barely be worth $8M on a one year contract and he’ll probably go ahead and retire rather than grind through training, spring training and a full season of road games, etc. for what would amount to a relatively insignificant bit of extra money after his current career earnings- but if he could argue for and get 2 years/$25M or 3 years/$75M or something, he might keep playing.
With Bellinger, i completely understand the lack of interest from teams. He is a guy whose hitting is inconsistent from season to season and falls back on his defensive value as a base. His defense is really good now, but there is a reason a lot of CFs become corner OFs or (1Bs as is likely for him) in their 30s. slowed speed and lingering injuries.
There is nowhere to go but down for Belli, 2023 is going to be as good as it gets. Pitchers will adjust to his new approach and since he cannot walk like he used to I would guess his OPS+ for the next two years will be around 100. His BABIP will likely also regress which creates more risk. I don’t see much more than a 2 WAR OF long-term.
I don’t want any player to get hurt ever, but 6’4 CFs are prime candidates to have their skills sapped by injury after age 30. Add to that Bellinger’s inconsistency and I don’t blame GMs for not wanting to give this guy a five year deal, let alone a 10 year deal. The risk is too high, and blown contracts like the one Scott and Cody are demanding is how GMs lose their jobs.
The two years Bellinger was hurt were the only two years he put up less than a 3 WAR (2020 1.5 WAR while playing 56 games, across 162 that is a 4.5 WAR season.
Bellinger was hurt. It’s pretty much as simple as that. You want to say pitchers will adjust to his more contact oriented approach, how? He still drove the ball early in the counts, he just put the ball in play a lot more with two strikes. Also, pitchers are going to have to the adjustments Bellinger mad against lefties more, to the tune of .596 slugging percentage.
Bellingers less pull approach allowed his bat head to stay in the zone against lefties vs slicing off them and he beat them like red headed step children.
People want to talk “exit velocity” okay great. He put the ball in play a whole lot more and it was a concentrated effort to do so so of course his exit velocity is down but his sweet spot percentage, his max exit velocity and launch angle are all right on par with Bellingers early year success. Exit velocity and hard hit percentage down, yes, but he had a lot more batted ball events. Sorry for everyone who suggest Bellingers “advanced stats” suggest regression, they don’t.
You don’t find it at all concerning that an injury caused Bellinger to put up 0.8 fWar over 900 PAs? That is precisely the reason I would not sign him to a five year pact, let alone ten. With his size and the position he plays, injuries are very very likely to mount as he ages.
No one is denying he is a very talented player but he has the type of red flags you do not want to see with a guy who wants the kind of money Cody does. You are right that his adv stats are fine, I never said they weren’t. He will need to hit .300+ going forward to touch 4 WAR and he only did so last year with a career-high BABIP. His 7% walk rate is now very average as well.
Last year everything went right for Cody. Will that happen again? What about the next decade? It’s a gamble and not the type the modern GM is willing to risk their job on.
Hope I’m wrong he’s an exciting player when he’s right.
As I said before, Bellinger seems like a guy who’s fated to be a terrible investment on a 5+ year deal of any kind, but equally likely to be worth a 1-2 year deal multiple times over.
For whatever reason, Bellinger seems like a player who would be more likely to justify successive contracts in the form of 1 year/$25M, 1 year/$26M, 1 year/$27M, 1 year/$28M, 1 year/$29M, 1 year/$30M more than he would justify 5 years/$165M, even though they’re the exact same length and value overall.
I’m really not worried due to the nature of the two injuries. A separated shoulder takes forever to get back from, especially when your job is swinging a bat! It will take a good year to get your strength back and longer to get back to form.
I’ve watched video of Bellingers offseason workouts and he looks very much like the guy of last season. He’s working hitting off a lot of different angles, awkward stances etc which means he’s continuing to focus on contact.
My concern was he would revert to his pull happy approach and it doesn’t appear to be the case from the videos.
You say he needs to hit .300 to post a 4 WAR? No he doesn’t. Had he not missed time last season he was pacing himself to 30+ home runs, 30 plus doubles, 120+ rbis, 120+ runs scored and 20+ stolen bases.
Bellinger is a plus defender in center, a plus plus defender in right and at first base. I really don’t have much concern for him moving forward and I think if he signs anywhere between 20-25 million a season it will be an absolute steal for the signing team.
To me, all signs point to him being back and I think he will be better next year than he was this past season.
Excluding 2020 his career average PAs per season is about 550. That’s about what he got last year. The man has only exceeded 600 PAs twice in his career.. when he was 22 and 23. 550 PAs is a good assumption for him. So unless he can stay healthy, yes he needs to hit .300 to produce like he did last year.
That’s a completely fallacy of logic considering one year he missed nearly 70 games due to a broken leg and another was covid where he only played 56 games.
As i said in the first line EXCLUDING 2020. I did NOT factor 2020 into that into the average since it was statistically different from other seasons. In the remaining six (6) seasons, he averaged just under 550 PA a season. You would not factor out an injury shorted season either when determining this average.
When looking at the NEXT six (6) seasons, this number gives us a rough idea of what might put up. per season. We can even round up to 575 or 600 PA on average per season if you really feel strongly about.
No logical fallacies, simple mathematics to determine one player’s average PA per year so we can have a rough baseline of how much PAs he might average over the next six seasons 🙂
I only meant to illustrate the point that A. Cody Bellinger has dealt with injuries in the past and will likely miss time due to injuries in the future B. His new swing change demands that he have a high average to maintain the level of production he put up last year.
I hope you have a pleasant night
I guess I’m not worried about Bellingers “injury history” because they are impact injuries. Separating his shoulder, collision with a player that breaks his leg, collision with a wall. He’s not a player who’s wound too tight that tears a a hamstring running the bases or injures his back sneezing.
I’m also confused about “his approach” you keep mentioning. You make it seem like he turned himself into Nico Hoerner. Bellinger is not a contact hitter, he is a power hitter who developed a two strike approach. Did Rizzo’s value rely on him hitting .300? Of course not. Bellinger still hits for power, hits home runs, hits doubles, drives in runs. The difference is his two strike approach, nothing else. He did go up the middle more which could be argued that’s due to the stadium being more conducive to gap to gap power vs pull hitting. Also, his walks are down because he has struggled the two season prior, pitchers are not issuing free passes because they are scared of him. That will change now he is back.
Bottom line in terms of “approach” he didn’t sell out power for average and he isn’t swinging outside the zone either.
This is where so many people are wrong. His advanced stats suggest he is back and back with a shiny new toy. IF this is Bellinger, which I believe it is, he is terrifying.
He’s never going to be the 2019 version though, no one is. The ball in 2019 was juiced more than Bonds and Canseco combined. But he’s every bit a 30 home run threat still with a new two strike approach.
Lastly, he’s a good defender in center but elite in rf. So his WAR value is slightly reduced playing center but value to a team, middle of the order center fielder is massive. Same can be said about first base.
In conclusion, his value is not tied to batting average. His value is tied to him being a run producer. He can easily replicate a 4+ WAR season and not hit .300 and his WAR is more achievable out of center but actual value is more tied to center field. (Unless PCA can push him to a corner).
Honestly it sounds like you and I are mostly in agreement, so I am not entirely sure why we’re arguing. The only reason I really brought up BA was because it supports his OBP now that his BB% is closer to 7%. I just meant to illustrate that his walk rate is no longer going to be 10%+ as it was from 2017-2019 and to maintain a .350+ OBP as he had last year his batting average will need to be around .300. I think you might be reading too deeply into what I am saying. I am not trying to claim that he is a contact hitter without power.
But yes everything hangs on IF he is back. Cody Bellinger has more red flags than the uncountable Baseball Reference tabs i have open on my computer. Thus why he has not had many suitors, the his past in inconsistent.
All of them are pretty weak centerfielders. What has happened to the qualify of CF? I miss the days of Kenny Lofton. Guy should be in the HOF already.
Agents have completely destroyed the MLB off season…WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY WAITING FOR?!?!?! The MLB needs to put a deadline on off season signings. These agents are strangling teams and making it impossible to plan. These negotiations really aren’t that complicated . We all know the market value it comes to term. These ass hats are dragging things out as long as freaking possible and people are really losing interest
Are we gonna wait until pitchers and catchers report for them to sign? Then when their client gets off to a horrible start because they miss spring training they will blame it on that
BIG drop off on that list after Belli, especially considering he also plays 1B and quite well.
I loved the article last week outlining the Boris signings after January whichever date.
Harper made out “ok” (don’t kid yourself he was the first rumoured 500 million dollar man and got 360-80, whatever it was), but essentially all other clients took significantly less than was even predicted.
Can’t help but wonder how much he mishandled Bellinger, Chapman, and Snell…..and what comes next from Boris….his team is certainly not going to get thrown under the bus….can’t wait to see who does: the league, the teams, the tv deals (that doesn’t impact Toronto, La, NYC, etc), the economy, trump, Biden, Trudeau….. maybe even the centre fielder that had a quality year after some gap years with signs of diminishing power into his 30’s, the formerly platinum glove, now gold glove, soon to be “solid” glove third baseman that hit for 1/6 months, or the starter that posts come contract year, with innings limits….but it certainly won’t be Boris corporation for overplaying their hand in signature “I invented baseball/dad jokes” fashion.
Jays fans- what’s a realistic price for a Varsho and Manoah combo? I realize any team would be buying low on both players, so would the Jays even entertain moving 2 downers…?
Interesting thing is advanced stat wise, Varsho was the exact same player last season as the season prior in Arizona. Difference being Arizona is a much more friendly place to hit. Moving to San Diego, he would most likely see an even larger decrease in offense.
Braves should sign hicks. Low risk high reward. Only 12 position players and spring training will be competitive for fourth of spots.
Kyle Lewis, who remains unsigned, played center field exclusively in 2020 en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. However, injuries have limited Lewis to corner outfield and DH duties across all levels the last two seasons.
Suzy was here.
Hire the Superfife!
Why would the Padres NOT be interested in Hicks to play left or center? And why would they be interested in Taylor at likely substantially more than they would’ve paid Grisham?! I honestly can’t figure out what the Padres are doing with their OF/1B/DH positions.
I would love Michael A Taylor as a fourth outfielder on my favorite team!
The angels will sign Cody Bellinger before spring training
I’d love to see jankowski get more looks. Duval is a cof/dh at best. Belli has a limited market w his ask which is shocking. You can do better saving money than overpaying for Taylor on scarcity. Hicks is a really interesting but low candidate himself and the move out of pressure filled New York did him wonders.
If only Cubs management didn’t try to pretend they’re a small market team and actually made a move…