The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.
There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.
Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.
Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.
It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.
Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.
Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).
That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.
While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.
It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”
As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.
In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.
Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.
That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.
Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.
In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.
Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.
Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.
His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.
That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.
It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.
Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.
GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.
Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).
Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Wow
Zoinks!
It did not take long after the sale to take action!
Great news not only for Orioles fans, but for Cubs and Reds in 2024.
C’mon Cubs, get Belli while Brew Crew goes belly up. Not a bad trade for Brewers long term, but gotta be a tough ones for their fans to swallow.
This trade was likely in the works for some time. Doubtful the new ownership had anything to do with it.
To be fair, DL Hall was the Orioles #5 prospect in 22 and might have been even higher on the 23 list if he had not graduated off it.
Now I wonder when the Brewers move Adames as well.
The fans of Cardinals Nation also give their approval of the great trade.
I agree Manny..The NL Central is now a two team race Reds and Cubs.
Only when the Cubs replace the offense provided by Bellinger.
I am pretty sure the Cards’ nation would disagree. They are better than you think.
I like Pirates chances as much as any. Division is so weak can’t rule the Cards out. Won’t rule Milwaukee out either. They can still win division without Burnes.
As a reds fan I’m more afraid they got a young pitcher with ace upside and lot of control left and a shortstop who also could be very good lol
@spudchukar I will be very interested to see if their bets on durable, below average pitching pays off—if their offense can overcome it despite the falloff of their best players from 2022 to 2023.
They really appeared to believe their best four in 2022 were going to get close again to 26 bWAR between them.
That it was under 10 explains about 70% of their dropoff b/t 2022 and 2023.
Pirates might surprise! They have enough offensive, comes down to pitching. I believe they have deepest pen.
Cub fan I guess.
Every team is in it none of them are juggernauts.
This was a good trade for both teams, but Orioles win it short term. Tough because it’s a one-year for Burnes who has unequivocally stated he’s testing Free Agency.
I could see them swinging a deal with SF.
I do believe that the Cubs need one more bat to keep it close, Bellinger preferred but Chapman might do – and Chapman is a bad move unless the contract is only 2-3 years.
If desperate (i.e., cheap), Cubs could sign Jorge Soler or J.D. Martinez to DH, but I am doubtful that putting Morel at 3B will go well.
With no moves, Cubs are relying upon Busch to make up for losing Belli – and that it too much of a stretch.
Looks like Angels, Giants and Blue Jays are the remianing competition for Belli and Chapman. I am hoping Angels sign Snell, rather than Belli or Chapman.
Yes, the Lynn/Gibson additions carry some risk, but Gray is quite the asset. The pen is vastly improved, and the Cards pretty much punted on the final 3rd of the season. They moved Flaherty and Montgomery, Arenado didn’t play, likewise Edman, Gorman, Nootbar and Donaldson saw little playing time due to injuries, and Contreras rebounded nicely. I believe their offense will be a top five, and their defense is still really good. Look for Victor Scott and his plus 100 steals and minor league gold glove to man center, moving Edman back to 2nd.
I still have.
Cubs
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Bottom 3 in any order.
Top 3 either or but 1&2.
“Looks like the Angels, Giants and Blue Jays….” Who are your sources telling you this?
The spud man is a genius.
Adames should be packing his bags. The Ortiz move nearly guarantees that.
Bet the trade was held up awaiting the sale.
Elias knows going in that Burnes will go FA, but that is balancing the near-term return with the long-term loss. Also, They have too many infielders, so its good to return some value.
Adames and something for Luzardo?
The division will be between the Cardinals and Reds. The cubs will be in it only because you can bunt for a HR in that band box.
If Burnes has a good season and helps the O’s go deep into the PO, it could change his mind if the owners offer him enough.
Hopefully he’ll go back to Tampa Bay, who need a SS with Franco headed for some jail time.
The Brewers have been taken to the cleaners. It’s no wonder the Guardians didn’t trade Bieber to the O’s. The return of Ortiz/Hall is pathetic!!!
Doubtful Burnes signs an extension, based on his comments as recently as Tuesday.
That’s because you know nothing about these players You’ll likely change your mind when you learn the value of Ortiz and Hall. Might take you a year or two.
Probably a reason why the trade was put on hold until the sale was announced.
They do have Caminero or just keep Walls.
That’s just silly. What if the previous ownership decided to go scorched earth and sell everyone for peanuts? Of course they approved it.
New ownership green lighted the move that the GM put together. That seems pretty integral.
The NL Central is now a 5 man race. I could see any of the 5 winning or finishing last. I could also see each team winning 80-82 games.
He has good stuff but very bad command. Likely a reliever albeit he could become a dominant closer.
Doubtful the trade occurs at all without the sale.
He will need to have a good year if he wants to cash in when Free Agency comes around. His ERA has been climbing for the last 3 years, his K/9 numbers have been falling and opposition OPS has been going up.
None of that looks good though he is no doubt a good pitcher.
With only 3 legitimate starting pitchers in their rotation, the Pirates have ZERO chance of winning the division.
Yeah, but they got to get to the pen first. Where are their #4 and #5 starting pitchers?
You can book to Pirates finish last in the division. Going into spring training with only 3 legitimate starting pitchers is a joke!
Not necessarily. It could be the formality of the process and the new ownership made some requests to make moves. They just couldn’t be announced until after the sale was official.
Hope springs eternal
One thing to consider is that he was in the NL Central. Some of those teams have been really bad the past few years, and last year teams didn’t play as many games against their own division with the new scheduling changes. So I would expect some NL central pitchers may have had higher ERA last year simply based on playing more games against tougher lineups of hitters….and also not getting easy outs against pitchers, with the new NL DH.
The Orioles are not sold yet. It was an agreement. It takes months to transfer a billion dollar deal like this, not to mention the other owners approving it.
My guess is the Cubs resign Bellinger and Chapman goes to SF. Then they either make JD Davis the DH or trade him for pitching.
Wouldn’t both teams playing in the band box be able to bunt for home runs? How’s that an advantage?
Who’s Donaldson? You mean Donovan?
But yes, the St. Louis offense was crushed by injuries in August and September to where they really only had Goldschmidt, Walker, and Nootbaar left putting up decent numbers.
Not me..Burnes almost single handily kept the Reds out of the post season last year. I’ll gladly risk the Brewers exchanging their Ace for a young SS and a relief pitcher.
You may want to take a longer look at Adames’ numbers last year. No way the Marlins trade Luzardo for a guy who hit .217 with a .700 OPS.
Adames and something, maybe a lot of something, but SS is an issue for Miami.
Burnes is in his final year and has made it known he wants to hit FA. Easy pill to swallow given it makes zero sense to hold him and merely receive a comp pick
Yeah, I think it makes sense for the Brewers. It’s possible that the calculus would have been different if Brandon Woodruff hadn’t been out for the year,
Whoa!
I have dyslexia and read this backwards.
Holy
good golly!
AL East Projections
Baltimore
NY
Toronto
Tampa
Boston
If no further moves were made
LOL. NYY gonna disappoint a lot of people in 2024.
Agree with you except Toronto will be last
Baltimore
New York
Tampa
Boston
Toronto.
Toronto Management has done nothing to help with their pour batting line up after last may be even worse this year and if the pitching does not hold up , last by a long shot , then maybe Rogers will kick those two guys out as President and Assistant GM.
The Yankees will be as good as their players health. If that rotation is healthy, they will be very tough. I do not think they are a first-place team, but they will be in the hunt for the wild card imho.
Toronto has a major league rotation and a fairly good lineup. The Red Sox have neither. The Red Sox have already announced they are unwilling to close the gap to even seize 4th place.
Whoa whoa whoa. Mr Burnes has to pitch in the AL East now not the NL Central
Well, they added a 4-5 WAR DH, a couple of 2 WAR OFers, Stroman, while dealing actually good pitching. They’re a genuine threat to win 90, and none of Tampa, Boston, or Toronto appear to be taking 2024 seriously.
90 wins and 3rd place are there for the taking!
Out of Miller Park and an average defense. The dude is an ace.
Manny – I’d say that order of finish is very much the most likely.
The only thing that could change it is if the Jays or Yanks make a major move.
William – Agreed, so far the Red Sox have made it very clear they are punting on this season. There’s still time to pivot, but I’m not very optimistic about them doing so.
The bookends are right, but Tampa will probably be better than New York and Toronto. Yanks have some flashy names but a lot of albatrosses, and the Jays’ core just isn’t as good as we were told it was going to be.
This really puts pressure on the Yankees if they had ANY hopes of winning the division. They are only a couple of pitching injuries away from being nothing more than a Wild Card Wonder.
Rick – Have you forgotten how dominant Rodon and Cortes can be if healthy? It wasn’t THAT long away.
Every team can sustain key injuries, it’s part of the game … a big part actually.
Wow isn’t what the Yankees screamed when they heard this news!
Introducing the “New” Baltimore Orioles”. Prepare for the new era.
I said in June 2022 it was the beginning of a new Golden Age for the Orioles.
Oh man the Yanks better answer back
They certainly will! I hear Cashman has a line on a DFA pitcher with great advanced metrics.
Darn! I thought it would be four prospects from the Yankees in return for a 34 year old starter who’s pitched just 93 innings in the last three years, and might be back by midseason.
Haha! You win, Mike!
I’ll take a tie. You did just fine.
Clip, great news! Matt Blake needs to stay busy turning cast offs into serviceable relief arms.
Cashman was heard saying “We didn’t think Burnes was a difference maker.”
99CJ: Agreed wholeheartedly on that point. Cease has performed as a 3/4, while Burnes has performed as a solid 2.
Obvious qualifiers are IF Cease stays healthy and IF Blake can get him to return to peak form…. But I don’t like to bet on IFs…..
“…while Burnes has performed as a solid 2.”
What? Burnes is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in MLB, he’s easily an ace.
Well, statistically he’s an 2 right now, imho. Burnes has an ERA+ outside the top ten, as well as a WAR outside the top ten by both Fangraphs (19) and Baseball Reference.
Now, is he an “ace?” I guess it depends on how you define that. But, for some teams he is, for nearly half the league he isn’t (based on the stats above). Thus, I would argue he is a definitive 2, overall, regardless of the team.
“Burnes has performed as a solid 2”?
Bad take
He is an ace caliber pitcher. He has proven himself to be one on a team with bad fielding in a park that isn’t too pitcher friendly. Whether he remains at that level we will find out over the next year or two. There are only a few teams that he would be a number 2 on.
Even if you’re only looking at last season, while it’s arguable as to whether he was an “Ace” in 2023, he was still one of the best 30 starting pitchers in MLB and thus still a #1 starter.
When you look at his track record over the last 4 years, he’s easily an Ace.
Earmbrister: okay. But, it’s subjective and contextual. Define the terms and we will talk. I posted the stats to which I was referring in support of my statement. Feel free to do the same.
Stats are also subjective depending on where the pitcher pitches and for what team. You know an ace when you see it, because they show you, they are. Here is why numbers are nice but can mean little. Jack Morris was the undisputed ace of the Tigers. His stats were fairly good but not hall of fame worthy, yet he is in the hall solely because everyone knew he was an ace and was always the guy you would count on for the big game for his whole career. Jack Morris stat wise is not Burnes using todays metrics, but clearly Morris is an ace.
The view of an ace is also dependent on what other pitchers are on the team. Is Burnes the ace of the Yankees? No. Clearly Cole is. Is Burnes a top caliber pitcher that would be the ace of 2/3 of the teams in baseball? Possibly on all, but surely on most. Some teams have more than 1 ace pitcher. In fact, many teams have had more than one ace.
I understand what your point is with stats, but that isn’t all of it. I would make an argument that Schilling was the ace of the Red Sox in 2004. We all know what Martinez was, and he was an ace, but Schilling was the man, and even I have to admit if the season came down to one game, I would rather have Schilling on the mound, and that is no insult to Martinez. Schilling was just that clutch and just that much of a sure thing when it mattered.
Right, and I don’t dispute what you’re saying in the context in which you wrote it. I simply responded to a comment with using stats as an objective measure for trade value, which is what CJ99 and I were discussing. Burns was overvalued by many and so was Cease in what they were “worth” for a return.
Nonetheless, I used stats to back up the trade value discussion (and how/why they are considered such by acquiring teams) because someone in this thread said I was wrong. I merely explained why the valuation was different and even explained the context/metrics I used to state my opinion.
You guys are using “ace” and I simply said it depends on how one defines “ace.” It does vary based on the discussion. I clearly used stats as the measure by which I was defining a 1-5 rotation. The measure was used in statistical context. I also said he would be a 1 on several teams. But statistically, he didn’t perform as a clear 1 when compared to the league; thus it is team-dependent.
Last, statistics are often used in baseball to determine the top pitchers. One person above said “easily a top 5-10 pitcher” in mlb. But if he pitched worse than 10 pitchers by overall statistica calculations, how can he be defined as a top-10?
Another said, “bad take” with zero informative rebuttal. Presumably this same person believes Burns should’ve netted four top-100 prospects then?
It’s one thing to criticize. It’s another to take statements out of context. But to have no credible or verifiable rebuttal to the statements in their context is ignorant.
IF the most durable pitcher in Majors the last 3 seasons stays healthy? I mean, sure anything can happen, but his health has never been cause for any concern.
I’m guessing the Yankees get one of Snell or Montgomery. With either the Red Sox, Angels, or Giants getting the other.
Yes please! Go get him, O’s!
O’s coming in hot for 2024. This is a great move. That division is going to be a battle all season.
Woot woot Birds! That said; burns me a bit that it took this long to happen. Oh, the agony!
So will the NL Central…for different reasons.
Well timed deal.
Angels prefer to not get anything back for their stars.
… then some Angels fans pretend they’re pleased Ohtani is gone, Carl. Happy they kept him at the deadline, pleased he left in the offseason. Profoundly confused franchise.
That’s crazy
That new ownership feel already hitting
They aren’t even there yet. Lol
It isn’t a stretch to believe that the new ownership blessed this trade before current owners pulled the trigger.
A phone call or a text like: “hey, we can pull this off, you good with that or no?”
Absolutely makes sense Long Time.
Joe – No, it doesn’t. Maybe if he had signed a monster extension, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. This is merely the Angelos family wanting to try one last time to win a championship before they hand over the team.
Championships aren’t won in February in MLB.
For the Dodgers, it was won in December 2023
It’s handed over. Rubenstein is the control person effective immediately, pending league approval. League approval is a formality here. No one in the sport doesn’t want this.
I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that
They committed 1.7 billion dollars. Believe me they are already there. The other owners are celebrating the sale and will approve it and Rubinstein in control next week!
C’mon people! There is no new ownership yet. There’s an AGREEMENT in place for a new owner but it’s still MONTHS away from ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
Prospect – Thank you for being the voice of reason here. I know kids tend to be impatient, but there’s no way the Angelos family is gonna take a financial hit in their last season.
Remember John said this just last year: “When people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.”
Big W
Baltimore fleeced them! Hall and Ortiz will never be stars in MLB. Burnes is a star and well worth the cost of acquisition. Getting the #34 overall pick was a wise move though. That could end up being the best ‘player’ in this deal for Milwaukee
Both could be stars. Maybe not the superstar level that Burnes has achieved to this point. But both could make an AS team or two.
Is Josh Hader a star? Because DL Hall could develop into that one day.
Ortiz will not be a star but solid everyday players have plenty of value. Milwaukee did well too.
Hall looks likely to blossom into Hader.
Ortiz is much better than people think. He was a joy to watch in AAA. I think he could be a star. I wanted him to start at 2B last year and I wanted him to start there in 2024…until now.
His numbers in AAA where good but there are some caveats:
1. He is very experienced and old for the level. This likely boosted his stats, he was simply too advanced for those pitchers.
2. The AAA park likely made his power to play up.
3. His plate discipline looked solid but his 8% walk rate in AAA is not great as automated balls and strikes inflated walk rates. More likely he will walk 6-7% in the majors. His contact tool is solid though (86% zone contact in his small mlb sample) but I think he probably will be a low obp guy who hits like 250/300/350 with 10-12 Homers which is like a 90 wrc+ or so hitter.
Projections also have quite some range.
Zips has him at 247/296/366 while steamer has him at 266/318/403
Not sure if steamer regressed his AAA numbers enough for his age.
You can cross #2 off your list: Harbor Park suppresses power. Here are the ballpark effects: R HR H
Harbor Park Norfolk Tides 0.973 0.861 0.981
Read that again: 0.861 HR effect. If you think his home park affected his power, then he will have more pop in MLB.
#3 is half wrong: automated balls and strikes were used in 50% of games; the other half used an appeal process.
Ortiz’s AAA slashes :
.346 .400 .567 .967
.321 .378 .507 .885
That’s a .390 OBP in AAA. It’s not probable that any player would drop to .300 in MLB, especially not someone who is HR or bust through 600 PAs. Far more likely his OBP is ~ .330. With 10HRs and 30 2Bs, his slugging will be .390+ to fill him out ~ 100 OPS+. That’s @ 1.5 WAR playing everyday in addition to 2+ WAR as a premium defensive SS. 3.5 WAR is nothing to dismiss. Last year that would put him in with Trea Turner and Manny Machado for ~ #55 offensively. fwiw, bref projects him at .716 OPS which would translate to 100 OPS+ last year.
The age is overplayed; forgive him for going to college. No reason to believe that he will regress more because of his age than it is for Michael Busch. Or than it was for Nelson Cruz.
All good points. Also, Ortiz isn’t old for level. He was 3.5yrs then 2.5yrs *young* for level in AAA the last 2yrs. Watching his tape, this kid is underrated and I’m assuming it’s because his bat didn’t show up until 2021 A+ when he was 1yr young for level. and he’s improved since over the last 2yrs. His approach is excellent. His bat to ball skills are excellent. Almost half of his balls in play are 95mph+ EV. He, like Tyler Black, have underrated pop as well.
Now add to that him playing a premium defensive position and being very good – plus there as well, depending where he ends up post-Adames trade.
All these reasons are why I’d rather have Ortiz than Mayo. Hall will be interesting to watch given they’ll give him every shot to stick in the rotation but worst case he’s another elite back end pen arm, which Milwaukee seems to continue to pump out. That comp pick could end up being (3) Top 100 players in return for 1yr of Burnes with two being MLB ready, 6yrs control
Win/Win trade
Average age in AAA doesn’t mean much, there are Lots of 27 to 31 year old quad A players in AAA who play there to be called up for 2 weeks in case someone and their Backup get hurt.
I agree he isn’t old but there is really not a single incident of a middle infielder becoming an above average regular after making their debut at age 25, middle IF is a young players position.
Or does anyone know a 2b or ss who became a regular after age 25 and became above average
It is their version of acquiring Ohtani the way the Dodgers did. Burnes will bring more revenue and as a baseball fan, it will be unique to have his O’s jersey and sign it since it will never be worn or sold in the stores after the 2024 seasonm
How can you say that with new owners coming in?
As an Orioles fan, I think the trade was fair, simply because it’s just 1 year of Burnes and it’s an added $15M to the roster. Brewers could be making a play at Snell or Montgomery to fill the void, and they get some nice young controllable MLB-ready pieces plus a high draft pick in return.
I’ve never been floored by Hall. Haven’t really seen Ortiz.
Hall. Gifted physically. To me, more of a thrower than pitcher. Good luck with that Milwaukee.
Hall is twice as talented as Oates.
Take that back Scott. Oates had the stache.
Oates needs to write a song about that mustache. Maybe “Womaneater”?
Fangraphs gives Hall an 80 for his fastball.
Ortiz is a GG candidate at SS.
Never know what they will wind up being, but i actually agree. Thats why when everyone says Cease’s price is too high, i disagree. They are asking for a chance thag these prospects pan put and are giving up a proven asset. Over valuaing prospects is the absolute worst thing organizations do. Doesnt mean they arent good, but it also doesnt mean they will ampint to anything either.
True, we don’t know the future, re. prospects. Or for established MLBers, for that matter.
As for Cease, the Anthopolous reaction, claiming to fans that he tried to acquire him but the price was too high, is all we have to go on (besides the Reds rumor). It may be that Getz, being new to the job, has been asking too much. Also possible he trades Cease next week, which would make all these claims moot.
This tactic is the same employed by Hahn to acquire Giolito, Lopez and Dunning as well as Cease and Eloy Jimenez, and Moncada and Kopech for Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana and Chris Sale respectively. Sox have always asked high, and it’s worked before. I think Getz being a new GM, there is some thought around the league that they don’t want to be taken for a ride by a 1st year GM. But your right, once Jackson Holliday is traded for Cease it will be moot . /s (hopefully not needed)
I really hope Cease gets traded just so I can judge the return he gets.
I started grinning so big with excitement, holy cow this is awesome!
Wow, that came outta nowhere. Good for the O’s.
Now we can’t make ironic “Rubinstein going hard” jokes.
This puts the Boo Birds neck and neck with the Rangers in my humble opinion.
I like how the 87 wild card Rangers were supposedly ever “ahead” of the 101 win champ of arguably the most competitive division in the game at any point.
nj – Postseason is a whole different bird.
Look no further than the Rays postseason history since 2009.
Can’t argue with that assessment on the Rays. I will say that the Rays feel like a successful group to me though. Just no World Series win to show for it. It’s hard to win a championship. Look at the teams who have cheated just to win it. It just goes to show you how hard it is to do. Man Fred that mutt will let you get away with it too, if you have the nerve to try it. Better to ask for forgiveness than permission they say.. Fever pitch is right about the postseason.
Different look to a team pre-deadline and post deadline. Then take away all #5’s from the teams plus see who’s healthy. Rangers had a very good trade deadline.
Rangers got hot at the right time. They were never the better team.
Except for the premium injured starting pitchers that will return at some point.
Rubinstein moving and shaking already. Look forward to the AL East competition!
He doesn’t own the team, yet.
But in spirit, he’s all up in there like chin hair
Really? The agreement is in place and MLB owners will quickly approve next week so you can be sure Rubinstein is already at the helm.
It’s not on the docket for next week and MLB said it would be several months so no, you’re wrong.
The stove is getting warm again
Yeah, this might heat things up. The Yanks almost have to respond. Probably not Sox or Ray’s, but maybe Toronto too.
According to two twits running the Blue Jays
They are done with their moves happy with what they have . That’s the difference between the people running Baltimore and like I said the twits running the Toronto organization
Please provide a link where the FO states they’re done making moves. I’ll save you the trouble…you can’t because it doesn’t exist they’ve never said it.
JFC, I swear Jays casuals are some of the most ignorant, misinformed crybabies on the internet.
Can’t be worse than the two twits running the Yankees. Running them into the ground. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian “Dumpster Diver” Cashman. What a joke.
Have you bothered reading Atkins last two press conference
It’ll probably be like me trying to burn a brush pile yesterday. Get a little fire going just for it to go out again.
Oh-face.
Same.
I was on a group text after the sale and said, “I think I just came.” Now it’s multiple O’s.
Well that escalated quickly.
Coby Mayo will be the centerpiece.
Not a chance. Ortiz is.
DL Hall*
Hall may very well end up being the most significant piece. His floor is basically “we have Josh Hader at home.”
Yeah, Hall is Hader round 2. But, at least he’s not in division. And, Bautista would have blocked him every year except 2024 anyways. I’ll take Bautista over Hall any day of the week.
I am, however, wondering how this affects -Rod and Adley and the other guys with whom DL was a big piece of the group.
I’m sure they’re a little bummed to lose their boy but nothing drastic here. DL’s basically been in Norfolk the last 2 years.
Hall & Bautista would’ve been electric out of the pen together. Sucks to lose that possibility but happy to gain Burnes.
That’s not PC — his name is now IL Hall.
Holy grail!!!
Yankees counter by signing Domingo German!
German would be a much better 5 than Schmidt.
German at this point could be poison in the clubhouse.
Perhaps, but it doesn’t change the fact that he has more upside than Schmidt. I just can not fathom that Cashman, and so many Yankee fans are A-OK with Schmidt being the 5th starter. He’s average at best. He’s fine as a spot starter, if (when) someone gets hurt, or if they’re playing a double header, but penciling him in as our #5, is as bad as going into last season, with no legit outfielder. I’d feel much better with Luis Gil as the 5th starter, and Schmidt as a long reliever, or even a set-up man. The Yankees (Cashman) blew it big time by not trading for Burns, or even trying to sign Hader. Am I the only one not sold on Clay Holmes as our closer? He’s OK, but he’s no Josh Hader. Plus, we also lost Wandy Peralta, who was a good lefty out of our pen. I’m sure Cashman will find someone on the waiver wire to replace him. Cashman has become Billy Beane 2.0
Uh oh
Ortiz and Hall.
I’m high on Ortiz, but he was log jammed unfortunately. Good trade, no complaints here.
I hate losing Hall. Think he’s gonna be a really nasty reliever.
Burnes is exactly what we need right now though. Can’t complain about that cost.
Same, I think Ortiz is going to have a very solid career. Great get for MIL.
@Floch
Yeah. I would’ve preferred we dealt Povich tbh. With Burnes in the rotation—Hall slides right into this years pen and makes us better.
Oh well. Cost of the acquisition.
BrianStrowman9: Why would you want to given up Povich instead of Hall? I agree that DL Hall
can/will be a nasty reliever, however, Povich has major upside. I’d rather keep the higher ceiling of Povich & see how his development progresses.
And obviously Mike Elias agrees with you. Hall does have electric stuff and calmed down with the walks last year. Milwaukee got a pretty good return there.
@prospects
You think Povich’s ceiling is higher?
I don’t. I think he could possibly be a mid rotation starter. That’s good and valuable but a wipe out reliever is much more valuable right now to the ‘24 O’s. Hall was ready now.
NYY back to 3rd, maybe 4 in east. Will Steinbrenner-in-name-only let Cashman sign Snell?
Followed in last by Toronto
Hey Theodore, where do you think Toronto will finish this season? Please post about it a few more times.
Assuming the Red Sox have been relegated to AAA in this scenario?
10Cent: Imho, no, he won’t. They will not pay anywhere near what Snell wants (and honestly, I don’t blame them if he truly wants 9/$270). However, there are moves to be made if they really want to put all the chips on the table for ‘24 (imo, they won’t do that).
I’d pay for Snell right now. Someone said it below, but we’re in Feb, 200mil/8yrs would be a solid offer.
Depends on how the Redsox young players perform. Wouldnt rule out the cellar.
Never. Doubt. Elias.
True that
Damn. Good for the O’s
Can’t wait to see what the return will be. If the Brewers play this right it could really set them up for the future.
Now try. Or bloviate about the Tigers finishing 2nd.
No idea what you are talking about dude. I also posted right after this that this should make your team the top AL WS contender. Go enjoy your win.
Holy Schneikes!
Wow, one of the few teams with plenty to get him, and arguably the one team that needed to make this type of move at this time…. I am very curious about the return…
Excellent move. Congratulations O’s fans, this year is looking bright for you. Hopefully this is just a sign of things to come under and ownership that goes after it.
Classy answer YC. This makes too much sense. And in spite of the rumors, they were never gonna get off their wallet for Snell.
YC
Don’t you mean they are going to ruin baseball?
/s
100% Even though this is gonna be tough on the yanks I do appreciate seeing moves that make this much baseball sense and the O’s showing real life after all the John Angelos bs regarding their plans with this core and window. Not pushing chips in with all this young talent is the greatest of sins against the baseball gods!
This is a great ripple move. It moves 4 starters down a slot and tosses the 5th into the pen or the minors. I also expect a slight improvement to the young hitters. With a true ace this club is very formidable.
Totally. To my mind this looks like the most impactful single player acquisition we’ve seen so far this off-season.
Dude are you serious right now lol
Um yeah. Problem? For the 2024 season I absolutely think it is and that’s the sense I was thinking about it in, although I didn’t make that clear I suppose.
Juan Soto would like a word.
What word was that? His team drastically underperformed with his leadership last year.
They underperformed? Or did you overrrate them like you did your own Mets?
To downplay the significance of Soto versus a guy pitching once a week would be foolish on your part.
Baltimore just got their number 1 starter. Looking like AL WS favorites after that move.
A 100 win team adds a number 1 starter. Impressive.
And gets the former number 1 back after a full offseason (Means)
Not saying means is without upside but idk that I would have called him a #1 in the sense of being an ace like burnes, Cole, and guys like that.
He was the O’s number 1. He’s not a Cole, Burnes, etc. agreeed. But it’s nice to have him back and slotted in as a #4
He’s potentially a valuable rotation piece for sure. Just wasn’t clear on which definition of #1 u were using lol.
The Ace/TOR/#1 terms are nebulous.
And, Ra? They aren’t THAT nebulous and there’s plenty of other baseball terms that are nebulous and subjective. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a clear distinction here.
You said it yourself. You were not clear on the definition. I was agreeing with you. Now you are mad. You OK?
Nah I just misconstrued the tone of your comment. My bad!
Great move for both sides. I hate to lose Ortiz and Hall, both of whom I am very high on, but, well…
CORBIN BURNES!
Excellent
Burnes takes some pressure off Braddish and Rodriguez
So Burnes, Braddish, Rodriguez, Means then innings eater Kremer. Free up Wells to be a set up guy and back up to Kimbrel.
Let’s go. Didn’t need to sell the farm either. This is the dream trade. Let’s go!
If that’s all the Brewers could get for Burnes it doesn’t bode well for CLE and the return they can expect for Bieber
The comp pick after Bieber leaves will be a better prospect
2 top 100 prospects, it looks pretty good. I think hall will be flipped in 4 years or so for a big return too. He’s got the stuff to be dominant in the 8th and 9th for a long time. This trade will keep on giving.
Not just 2 Top 100 but both are MLB ready so less risk than a Top 100 in low minors. Plus the comp pick that could absolutely turn into a third Top 100 in 1-2yrs
So long, partner.
So happy to get him but you guys did pretty great on the return. Hall has the stuff to be Hader 2.0 and Ortiz is MLB ready and has a really high floor thanks to his excellent SS defense and contact skills.
Don’t gotta tell me. I was in favor of dealing Burnes.
New owners then sign Burnes to an extension. That’d be nice.
I have a feeling with Cal as part of the ownership group, that they’re gonna open their wallets a bit. Gonna be a fun team to watch, for sure!
Why? He’s not the rich one comparatively.
Cal has nothing to do with anything on the decision making side,
Is that what he told you bruh
If you can’t tell a figurehead when you see one, you should make sure there is a responsible adult with you for every life decision.
Burnes has already said he wants to test FA and won’t sign an extension with any team. Don’t blame him knowing he’ll be the top SP on the Market next year.
That can change. Once his agent Boras finalizes deal for Snell this month, they may come up with a magic number for Balt to ponder…..especially if Burnes is pumped about the future of young/dynamic team.
I think it’s going to be a pure rental, but Rubenstein may back up the Brinks truck to re-sign him in free agency to make a statement in his first offseason as owner. That would be neato lol.
my first thought was adding DL Hall was a bit rich as he’s going to be good and is a southpaw. esp as I thought there was zero chance that Angelos would have any interest in extending him.
BUT, there’s a non-zero chance that Rubenstein’s group may work out a deal to get more than a 1 yr rental for Burnes. IF that happens, wow… Have a great career with Milwaukee, Ortiz and Hall. it would be the trade that benefitted both teams alike.
hoping that happens, we’ll see. Deal isn’t even approved nor signed yet. Although, I would think with Rubenstein’s business successes, he doesn’t seem like the hemming and hawing type worried about buyer’s or seller’s remorse. Easy to do when signing a pitcher to a long term extension can be done with the change in your sofa cushions.
Yesterday was surprising enough, im pinching myself with this news. Scared it’s all some kind of dream from the chili we had last night.
I don’t think DL is ever gonna be a starter but it does sting to lose him. Ortiz had no role here and a draft choice is just the cost here.
Hall would’ve been nice to plug into the pen. Not too many guys throwing 100 mph from the left side. I’ll bet on him having a nice career as a reliever. MIL did well here too.
If y’all don’t believe that Cal doesn’t have a big say in meetings, and knows that his share of the O’s is part of his legacy, then take the night and think about it. He didn’t join the ownership group to be known as a failed ‘owner’. Guarantee you he’s gonna push hard to get them over the hump. Not even an O’s fan btw..just seeing the writing on the wall, and respect what they’re doing. You think it was a coincidence that this trade went down a day after the ownership group was announced?
No Oriole fan believes Ripken is going to be hands on, whether coaching wise or on financial decisions.
What’s he going to do to “get them over the hump?” Hit fungoes???
And exactly how would a silent partner be deemed a “failed owner” if he is not taking part in day-to-day operations?
You’re talking like a Cal fanboy. And a fanboy from a distance, at that.
Looks like Milwaukee is planning to be bad.
It’s a shame, I was hoping to see Chourio play for something…
Not necessarily. Both guys coming back are in the Show or just about ready.
I know but I was hoping when Chourio makes it to the Big League, he would play on a contending team.
AY: With Burnes gone next year, this trade actually increases the likelihood of Chorio joining a contender when he arrives.
Maybe…
Please..they are losing their ace not matter how you look at it and their rotation wasn’t that good to start with.
How so? Trading Burnes for this haul is just smart!
Not talking smart because I;m not a brewers fan, just want to see the young chourio in the playoffs in the next few years i sure hope so
Angels disagree!
Why? By having premium rookies start all year. They could be better with all these young hitters.
Not in my opinion
Looks like they are planning on starting Ortiz at SS 140 games to shore up the infield defense.
Now this is what big boy teams do Orioles. Good job for no more of your Kyle Gibson/Cole Irvin bullcrap
Cole Irvin is still on the team FYI
…And it was a good trade. The Orioles were so deep, the player they traded for Irvin was named Minor League Player of the Year for the Athletics. Hernaiz may have an MLB career ahead of him.
Just makes you realize just how crazy Ellis’ first draft was.
Irvin sucks. It wasn’t a good trade for Baltimore, especially for what they needed.
It was an irrelevant trade and it’s kind of weird to still be talking about it. Particularly with recent developments.
You realize Irvin pitched to a 3.22 ERA over 64 innings after tweaking things and returning to the Orioles in June.
Oh, right, of course you didn’t, since you were not paying attention. Just looking at WAR and making assumptions.
Irvin’s a fine depth starter. But we probably L that trade. Hernaiz didn’t have any room for ABS here any longer though. He was really never going to factor in for the Major league club.
Irvin will be the #6 & long man. More useful to the 2024 O’s but the A’s got the better value. I think Hernaiz will be a nice super utility player.
The concept of winning and losing trades is pointless, imo. Irvin had proven to be durable and is a lefty. Hernaiz may have a good MLB career but was not going to have a career in Baltimore. Both teams benefited. For anyone focused on who “won” that trade, it is far, far too early to tell.
This offseason made me and a bunch of other people feel so stupid…
Trading Burnes without getting one of the O’s top 5 prospects back feels like an L for the Crew
There 6 would be number one in a lot of organizations
Mets69 that’s just not true. Maybe two orgs but certainly not most.
Didn’t say most. The 63rd ranked prospect in baseball is nothing to sneeze at.
100% agree, if your gonna make a blockbuster trade that everyone was talking about to the best farm system the league has seen in a decade, at least get one of their top 5 prospects
They didn’t have that much leverage with Burnes this close to free agency.
Still, expected more…
Based on what? You can be certain that the Brewers shopped him around and took the best offer.
You can’t judge a trade in a vacuum with no information about the market and which teams offered what.
I’m not saying they didn’t take the best offer, I’m saying the offer they accepted wasn’t worth it…
All fans expect more. One year of a player always limits the value.
Listen, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I think the Orioles underpayed tremendously
More then the 63rd prospect and baseball and potentially top end reliever?
AY
“if your gonna make a blockbuster trade that everyone was talking about to the best farm system the league has seen in a decade, at least get one of their top 5 prospects”
As is typical, u knowledgeable people get things exactly backwards
If a farm system is great, you don’t need as highly ranked of a player as you would from a lower ranked system
The best player in a bad system, for example, might be 10th if they were in the better system
If you trade with a bad system, you better get a highly rated player. If you trade with a good system, you can get a ,over ranked player
That doesn’t make logical sense though, If for example someone is wealthy and he pays someone to mow his lawn, your more likely going to get more from him then somebody poor…
Wealthy people don’t waste their money just because they are wealthy.
Correct, but you are still more likely to get more money because he he has more but even if he didnt, if you were smart you could demand more.
… or the smart person walks away to find a more reasonable price. Wealthy people don’t remain wealthy by allowing people to take advantage of them.
It’s not taking advantage, it’s demanding more because they have more, and they know that
You don’t seem to understand supply and demand. They also know the fair price. They aren’t going to pay a rich tax to the guy mowing the lawn. They tell him to go away and hire someone for the normal price
Clearly the Brewers were extremely willing to trade Burnes so not really
Never seen a Gardner ask how much someone makes in the negotiation of price?
Laughably bad analogy, AY. You must have botched that section of the SATs. And the spelling part, too (the word is “underPAID.”)
Oh boo-hoo. Greedy perspective. Two good players, MLB ready, six years of control, and a draft pick – Brewers just got their future SS & closer for one year of Burnes. You’re too focused on rankings. This was a great deal for both sides.
Rich people actually wind up getting the best deals because of the way the system works. They have cheaper costs of capital & typically have economy of scale advantages.
And, AY, that willingness to trade Burnes may have compromised their leverage enough to lessen the offers available to them.
I don’t really care about my spelling on MLB Trade Rumors lol, I’m typing fast so as long as you’re able to tell what I’m saying its fine for me….
If a farm system is great, you don’t need as highly ranked of a player as you would from a lower ranked system
============================
Referring to what number a team’s prospects rank is about as meaningless as a number can be. What you really want to know, in no particular order:
1-Where they are ranked in the top-150, 200, etc.
2-What their FV is.
3-Are they rising or descending?
I said this during the Betts trade. SD had more 50 FVs than the RS had 40 or better. Our top two might not have been as good as the SD #10.
JB
Kinda like saying “I’ll sell my shoes for the two largest denominations of bills in someone’s wallet”
Maybe that person has hundreds, maybe a bunch of singles. Better to sell it for an amount.
It’s clear you don’t know the word is spelled “paid’ since you repeatedly make the same mistake. But if you don’t want to improve yourself, that’s your call. Not my fault you didn’t learn the basics.
1 year rental. Trade now or pay his salary and risk injury and getting less or nothing. Doesn’t matter how good the other teams farm is. You take the best available offer.
You’ll be happy with Ortiz. Good bat and great defense.
Two 55FV prospects and the #34 overall pick in next year’s draft is a pretty good return.
The brewers got roughly equal value to the comp pick they’d have got if they held him for 2024 and did a qo without the risk of injury in that scenario. And they got two well regarded mlb ready prospects on top of that. I’d call that a pretty good deal for a one year rental.
@yordan. The Brewers still managed to land a top 100 prospect, with company. For a one year rental, this is actually a pretty good haul. I get that you just have the opinion the Brewers should have gotten more. Perhaps you would be willing to Google best one year rental trades? If you do you will find that one year of even an ace like Burns just isn’t going to get you much. Not trying to pick on you as I can see you’ve had a lot of replies but I think if you put this trade in the context of trades like this you would see that the Brewers actually did pretty well.
Agree – pretty poor return vs trying to win a weak NL Central. Winning in the playoffs involves much more luck than people think – getting in gives you a chance.
@pmck003: Brewers’ management obviously didn’t believe their chances of winning next year with Burnes were good enough to pass up the opportunity to fortify their system for the future.
Ortiz was #6 on MLB Pipeline and Hall is a beast.
Plus an extra first round-ish pick.
They did pretty great for 1 year of Burnes honestly.
Shows you the market for getting 1 year of someone – even an ace.
This is a take a lot of folks have and it just doesn’t make sense. 1yr of Burnes isn’t returning you the #1 or 17 overall prospect. That leaves 3 guys left and 2 of them play OF where the Brewers currently have Yelich + 3 Top 100 (Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer) + current #2 overall prospect.
That only leaves Mayo left and I personally would much rather have Ortiz. Excellent bat to ball skills, high hard hit rate, line to line, rarely strikes out + he plays a premium defensive position at a high level. Literally none of that applies to Mayo, who has a better arm with much more HR power. Mayo likely ends up at 1b where the Brewers have Rhys for 1-3yrs + Tyler Black (MLB ready Top 50) and Brock Wilken (1st Rd pick last year who already made it to AA). Also, Ortiz is underrated
Everybody get in here!
Nice
Doesn’t that seem kinda light
My thoughts exactly. But it does read, “as part of the return,” so I guess we will see.
This is a zesty acquisition for the Orioles
Very spicy indeed, love it!
Adames next?
Dodgers maybe?
I would like to think that Brewers will either extend Adames or sign Woodruff.
Understandable. But Ortiz is 25, they might just give him the job and trade Adames.
Marlins need a SS, and could trade pitching. But they would probably prefer Ortiz over Adames.
Ortiz is the long-term shortstop, but Adames could play 3B or 2B. But I would not be surprised if Adames gets traded either..
Exactly.
Adames is half way out the door with this trade IMO.
I don’t really understand the Hoskins signing paired with this move though so maybe I’m wrong. Joey Ortiz needs to play in the major leagues next year though.
I think Ortiz is future SS. Would trade Adames.
100%, Ortiz is going to be a regular Web Gem fixture at SS for years to come.
Not sure why they would sign Adames. Dude had a .700 OPS last year.
Ownership like aight enough talk let’s get into this.
Finally. Someone in the AL East actually wants to win.
They opposite of what Boston and Tornto are doing playing to lose
For what Milwaukee got in return Boston and Toronto Management sitting on their asses
I wouldn’t want to beat that trade package. Those teams have much weaker prospects.
Red Sox farm system is actually decent
My Dream GM would definitely want to trade for the best players possible.
So, you’re definitely NOT my dream GM
So is he your Nightmare GM?
Ed
Much closer to that, yes
have anything new to say, OY? that opinion is so tired.
Re MacG
OY is nothing but a troll
Comes here ro make stupid taeks to get reactions out of people because they cant get a reaction for saying anything useful. And refuses to ever back up their trolling statements with any substance
That right, OY?
You gonna accept the bet about Chapmam or no? Or are you, like always, just talking out of your [donkey]?
This made my night as a reds fan, we will probably still lose a lot to the brewers like we did last year lol.
Especially with a lot of question marks still in the starting rotation.
Fantastic move by the O’s!
I like this deal for the Os. Not so much for the Brew Crew, although I’ll need to wait on the full return.
I like this for one team and don’t like this for the other even though I have no what the return is, lol.
At the time of posting Joey Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall were reported. So I didn’t love it for the Brew Crew, hence my post. Now that we know the full deal, the Brewers also got picks. So I stand by my statement. I thought the Brewers could have gotten a better return.
Ortiz is a legit SS prospect
Should stick at ss. Unless he bulks up more and then his bat should play elsewhere.
Hall, Ortiz, and an extra first round-ish pick for 1 year of Burnes is actually a really good return. Hall has ace/elite closer type of stuff and Ortiz has an extremely high floor thanks to his excellent SS defense, plus there is whatever the pick turns into.
I think the SS position has changed quite a bit, and a purely defensive SS isn’t as appealing as it once was. That being said, Hall is the big piece here. Hope he works out.
I just hate when a contender trades a piece they could use. The Brewers aren’t far away, especially in the NL Central.
We know DL is a nice piece, what do Orioles fans think of Ortiz?
Can easily be among the top 5 defensive SS in the game. If he can hit above .250 with just decent power, he’s a long term starter easily. The bat is the only question, how well he’ll handle MLB pitching..
Batting for shortstops has become a near must now days. Glove guys at short don’t really move the needle now days.
He’s 26 this summer too so it’s make it or break it time
Yeah that’s kind of old for a prospect.
No question has power has improved since his college days, but it’s still probably below average. He’s also not particularly fast
(MLB pipeline gives him a 45 on both, but a 55 on hit.) The crux of the question as to whether he’ll hit enough is really, will his contact be hard enough for his ground balls and line drives to get through or land in the majors. Personally I think he’ll be a 3.5 WAR guy, give or take.
I think Ortiz will be a slightly above average starting SS for a long time. The kind of SS that a shrewd team like MIL uses. Defense gives him a really high floor. He’ll chip in some steals too.
TBD what you get from him hitting wise. That’ll determine just how good he becomes.
He’s been raking in AAA. Great glove. Brewers fans will be happy with him.
I’d have loved for the team to keep him, but with Holliday and Henderson around, it’s really better for him to go somewhere where he can get a chance to play short. Happy for the guy and wish him the best.
I think he’s underrated. He has always had a reputation of defense and no power since coming out of college. He has bulked up during pandemic and raked since. He seems to not be able to shake the reputation though despite putting up excellent offensive numbers in AAA
As an Orioles fan I think DL Hall will do better with the chance of scenery and Ortiz will do good in Milwaukee and hopefully Milwaukee will get a decent player from the Comoetitve Balance Round A draft too
Excellent defender at SS and excellent bat-to-ball skills. If he puts up a .700-.750 OPS, he will be a top 10ish SS in MLB.
I actually think Jeremy Peña down in Houston is a great comp. He might hit better than Pena too. Not a bad everyday SS.to have around.
I have seen that comp before and agree with it. Pena is faster but I have more faith in Ortiz’s ability to hit for a higher average.
Ortiz: ++ defender who showed BA and power in the minors. Said to have a suboptimal swing path, but that could possibly be tweaked. Doesn’t have to be if everyone is OK with 40 2Bs and 10 HRs.
Not an Os fan by any means but I’m thrilled for the fans and stoked that the new ownership is making moves already.
New ownership isn’t in place to make this deal yet
Maybe new ownership is not in place, but you can be sure deal would not have occurred without their blessing.
@manny
Exactly, I would be elated just knowing the Angelo’s are going to be ousted but to get ARGUABLY the second best pitcher in MLB for an infield prospect who honestly was blocked and would never set a foot in Camden Yards and a DL Hall who has had his struggles and a draft pick . I would be hysterical if I was a birds fan. You just won the AL East and got a legitimate Ace now! I wouldn’t be shocked if a bat is next . (Soler possibly?)
White Sox fans/Chicago Media: “Cease is a BEAST, worth 4 top 100 prospects at least.”
Chris Gets: *defecating in pants after seeing this trade”
Lol, yeah I’m willing to bet the Cease market has diminished massively
with this deal
Or teams who wanted Burners are ready to pivot to a lesser dude.
Can you imagine the O’s acquiring Cease as well? Hah
That would be bold!
I’m willing to bet the Cease market has diminished massively
==============================
Not at all. If one year of Burnes is worth two fringy top-100 prospects and a high draft pick, then two years of Cease is worth 4 fringy top-100 types.
One year of Burnes pretty close to 2 years of cease trade value, IMO.
Cease has an extra year. Burnes is a rental.
That’s a good point fellas ^^^^^
I know, but at the end of the day the Brewers got practially nothing compared to what the O’s have to offer from the farm system…
Burnes has been a much better pitcher the last four years. Definitely a much higher floor.
100 percent true but what we’re the other managers doing while Baltimore gave up.
Specifically Yankees , Red. sox and Blue Jays
I’m not understanding your question..
It doesn’t matter what they have to offer. It only matters what the player is worth.
Just because the Orioles have better to offer, doesn’t mean they would. They only have to beat the other offers, not blow them to smithereens.
Your the second person to say this, I’m aware the Orioles beat all the offers and wouldnt pay anything more, if they didnt we wouldnt be discussing this right now. All I;m saying is that I’m surprised the market for Burnes wasn;t higher and that the Brewers didnt demand anything higher then what they just got
Why should the Orioles overpay just because they have a good Farm?
Why is everyvody not understanding what I’m saying, I’m not saying the Orioles should have overpayed, I’m saying that I think the Brewers could have demanded more then what they got….
It’s also possible the market for Burnes is exactly what you were expecting, you’ve just underrated just how good Ortiz is.
As for their demands, they probably did demand higher and just found those doors to be closed.
No one cares what Milwaukee demanded like they don’t care what Boras Snell demand. It’s take what we offer or go f yourself.
honestly, it seems that an ugly arbitration hearing started some bad blood between Burnes and the Brewers. I kind of hate the process for that reason.
really hoping that after the O’s WS champ parade, that Rubenstein has a sit down with Burnes and extends him.
I do think the compensation pick is a nice add to Ortiz and Hall.
Jumping the gun
Not for a one year rental!
AY, which means that one year of Burnes was not worth Holliday, Basallo or Mayo. It’s pretty easy to understand.
“overPAID” “underPAID”
@AirYordan the Brewers most certainly did demand more both from the Orioles and every other interested team. This package is where the scales balanced out to make a deal though or else they would have made a diffent deal. Regardless, getting 18 years of control over two likely above average MLB players and a yet to be determined prospect (and the additional bonus pool allotment associated with the pick the Brewers didn’t have this morning) is a solid haul for one season of anyone even someone as good as Burnes.
AY
“, but at the end of the day the Brewers got practially nothing compared to what the O’s have to offer from the farm system…”
And that’s absolutely the wrong way to look at it
Burnes is the better, more consistent pitcher though.
True. 2 years vs. 1 though.
that correct. and with Angelo’s, there was zero chance of it being more than 1 yr with Burnes. with Rubenstein, maybe the wallet is a little more open. no one doubts his talent.
I hope Gets finished that 2nd bottle of wine early enough to get a good night sleep. He can wake up tomorrow to the obvious reality he overplayed his hand and go into damage control mode. Salvage what you can for cease.
Hall & Ortiz only. I’d be pissed if I was a brewers fan. Yuck
Yeah only two top 100 BA guys…
Hall is a FORMER top 100. And trending the wrong way with a concerning walk rate.
Ortiz is a decent player. But Corbin burnes a frontline starter.
Light return.
Hadn’t seen the CBP.
That helps. With that said.. I’d be a little underwhelmed if I was a drunken sconnie
5 years of Hall and 6 years of Ortiz for one year of Burnes.
Any prospect they got would have the same control. Put your mittens on. Time to stop typing.
Hall is trending the wrong way? He was great in the second half last year.
Dude’s gonna be their new Hader.
It feels light for burnes. Two 50 grade, maybe 55 for ortiz. But still, strengthens their farm especially with that 34th pick.
Ortiz won’t be on the farm, neither will DL for that matter. Ortiz will be the everyday SS and I assume Hall will be in the rotation…Os were 50-50 on it going into spring training.
That pick has a ton of value too. (Specifically in 2023, $2,481,400 in bonus pool allotment. Gives a team a ton of flexibility making deals over and under slot at the draft.) Hall and Ortiz both have outstanding skills and abilities. Only question with Ortiz is whether his bat will hold up in the majors, only question with Hall is whether he’ll be a good starter (doubtful at this point), or a top level closer.
If Hall sticks as a strong BP arm, then that could be big.
Hall could be developed into the next Hader. Hader had the same control issues and similar stuff when he was coming up.
Jones…so a light hitting shortstop and a reliever. Plus a pick, I might actually like the pick the best. That said given the pitching market this deal looks great for the O’s.
Ortiz is a good hitter with pop and a top-notch defender.
Ortiz is not that good. He is 5’9. Undersized, he is a backup infielder ceiling.
You mean like Altuve is no good and has a backup infielder ceiling. Or Pedroia?
Ortiz was excellent in the minors and a Top 100 prospect.
Ortiz is a GG with high BA and good power. Obviously, you have never seen him play and are unfamiliar with his performance. Just keep judging on height, whether he is listed at 5’11” or 5’9″. One day you’ll find out you were wrong, but won’t admit it, of course.
@Sal – Go check out Ortiz’ EV rates. A GG caliber SS, good K%, and plus EV. Sounds like a 3+ WAR guy to me.
I trust that Brewers fans are more baseball literate than you give them credit for, and that they see their return more accurately than you do, Goose.
Goose— can you think outside of a prospect list?
How valuable was Josh Hader? How valuable is Devin Williams. DL Hall has the potential to be that valuable.
I hate losing him. He would’ve helped the O’s this year out of the bullpen.
Giving up DL Hall hurts, but gotta give to get
I think they grab another reliever or something now
If they are confident in how Tate is looking in his recovery, and it was reported to pretty darn good, maybe not. In fact, that may have made them feel comfortable dealing Hall, the idea that “we’re getting back another solid bullpen arm in Tate, so Hall is expendable for an ace like Burnes.”
Congratulations O’s fans!
Great for the O’s, but seems like a light return for Milwaukee, no?
It only looks that way because of how stacked Os farm is. This is a major league ready starting shortstop, a lefty starter with top of rotation stuff, and #34 draft pick. Brewers got guys that can help immediatly and a draft pick to help later. All for 1 year of Burnes
Agreed. It seems like a fair trade for one year of Burnes.
I’m pretty sure both were top 100 prospects, all for a rental
Yes, it’s a light return by any metric
WTF Red Sox!
WTF rest of league especially Yankees , Jays , Red Sox
WHAT?
No one wants to win the NL Central.
Word finally got back to Brewers about Héctor Neris signing. They are in full sell mode now.
Kripes! I think this will work out fine. Better than a comp pick. I think the pitching we have in the pipeline is close to ready. Go Crew!!
Don’t listen to the haters. I’m an O’s fan and think you guys did very well. Losing both Ortiz and Hall for a 1 year rental stings, but you gotta give to get as they say. Hope they both do great in MIL.
Wow… that hurts as a Yankee fan. Our advantage against Baltimore is gone.
True, but I’d argue that our advantage against the O’s was gone once they extended Aaron Boone….
What advantage
What advantage? A higher payroll?
The Os had better pitching than the Yankees last year. The Os had the 7th best team ERA vs the Yankees at 9th
What advantage?
Did you sleep though 2023, bro?
How the Yankees couldn’t do this is beyond me. These are BALs 4th and 5th best prospects. .
You’re right and They could have in theory…but, we have to remember that each team values other teams’ prospects differently. So, they may view Ortiz and/or Hall much more highly than even the highest ranked Yankees prospects due to their internal analytics, positional needs, or both.
I hear except that in the most recent MLB top prospect Lopez is 63 and Hall is not top 100 while Hampton and Warren are both top 100. So something tells me Yankees didn’t want to offer a package of Peraza, Perreia, Hampton/Warren and Beeter/Lange which again is another year where Cashman values his farm system higher then anyone else only to never play them and then release them 3 years later
Oh, for sure! Cashman prospect-hugging is absolutely at least part of the reason, if not the entire reason.
I don’t think all prospects should be traded because they obviously have to develop internally too, but the Yankees hamstrung themselves with needing to win this year because of the Soto deal (I don’t think they will re-sign him). Once he leaves, they will have a major offensive hole again.
Hall is no longer a prospect, so he wouldn’t be rated.
Look prospects and pitchers are oulier, nobody knows how they do in the future. The deals that are made in the off season all look good until players under perform or get injured which happens to all teams all the time.
Over & over I keep hearing people tell me how the Yankees will sign Soto for ridiculous numbers after this season. I agree with you – Soto is a one year rental. A very costly one at that, and it makes me wonder why the Yankees aren’t making another move to support their 2024 season. I do expect Rodon will give us an improved season & Stroman will give us 180+ decent innings. But I don’t understand why Cashman allowed Hader or Peralta to get away.
Those prospects are better than what the Yankees had probably.
Not according to MLB top prospects
The trio of Dominguez, Hampton and Warren might have been comparable but the Brewers have plenty of outfield prospects and needed someone MLB ready at pitcher and infield.
Yankees shot their load on Soto, Orioles held serve with Burnes.