On the heels of a late-offseason blockbuster, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. What’s next for the Brewers?
The Brewers parted ways with ace Corbin Burnes yesterday, shipping him to Baltimore in exchange for youngsters DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and Baltimore’s Competitive Balance draft pick — the No. 34 overall selection this summer. While the deal provides the club with an infusion of cost-controlled talent, it leaves a Milwaukee team that has been defined by its twin aces at the top of the rotation in recent years without either player headed into the 2024 campaign after Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered following shoulder surgery. The moves beg the question of what’s next for this new-look Brewers club. The organization clearly isn’t punting on 2024 after signing Rhys Hoskins to a two-year deal less than two weeks ago, and the club could have a new superstar to build around emerge this year when outfielder Jackson Chourio makes his big league debut. The trade of Burnes also freed up more than $15MM and dropped the team payroll to just under $102MM. That should free up some resources to replace some of Burnes’ lost value in free agency, should Milwaukee choose to go that route.
On the other hand, Ortiz’s presence would make it significantly easier for the club to part ways with shortstop Willy Adames while still aiming to remain competitive, and it’s even possible to imagine the club deciding to cash in on closer Devin Williams with a two pennant races of team control remaining as they did with Josh Hader back in 2022. Virtually any contending club would figure to have at least some level of interest in Williams’s services if Milwaukee were to accept offers on the righty, while teams like the Dodgers, Marlins, and Rays could stand to improve at shortstop and may have some level of interest in Adames.
2. Angels, Suarez await arbitration decision:
Per the Associated Press, the Angels and left-hander Jose Suarez went to arbitration yesterday with a decision expected sometime today. The southpaw requested a $1.35MM salary while the Angels countered with a figure of $925K. Teams have won more arbitration cases than players in recent years, and the clubs are off to a good start in maintaining that record after the first arbitration decision of the winter favored the Marlins over center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. yesterday.
Suarez’s first trip through arbitration comes on the heels of a brutal 2023 campaign where he was limited to just 33 2/3 innings of work by injury and was shelled to the tune of an 8.29 ERA. Difficult as last year was for the lefty, the 26-year-old enjoyed back-to-back strong campaigns while swinging between the rotation and bullpen for the Angels in 2021 and 2022, where he combined for a 3.86 ERA in 207 1/3 innings of work. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Suarez for a $1.1MM salary earlier this winter.
3. Two relievers nearing deals:
A pair of bullpen pieces were reportedly closing in on deals yesterday as right-hander Keynan Middleton has reportedly reached an agreement with the Cardinals while southpaw Jake Diekman is on the verge of a pact with the Mets. Diekman has reportedly been offered a one-year deal at an unreported salary that includes a vesting option for 2025 while the details of Middleton’s arrangement with St. Louis, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. Both teams have full 40-man rosters, meaning each will need to make a corresponding move to clear space for their new signing if a deal is completed. Quality options for teams in search of bullpen help continue to thin as right-handers Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek stand as the best relief arms still available, while lefty relief options include bounceback candidates like Brad Hand, Aaron Loup, and Joely Rodriguez..
Marlins missed out on cost controlled Ortiz but weren’t feeling making Luzardo available to the Orioles. Adames would give them a ML starter to fill their pitiful SS hole. Seems like a good fit it they want to build on last yr’s surprising playoff team. Just less cost controlled. maybe if they could get people to come and watch their games… lol
Rather fish keep Luzardo and promote Xavier or Amaya. The latter option offers a similar profile to Ortiz.
Wow
Brewers need to go sign woodruff ! They should also trade adames before the season starts, eat some of his salary, and get a nice haul for him !
You think they would non-tender him and then sign him? There’s not a good history of that happening.
Woodruff’s situation is not a cookie cutter non-tender. If I had to guess the Brewers aren’t who will sign him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.
There is talk of Woodruff resigning him to a 2 yr deal. They may be waiting till they get closer to spring training so then they transfer him to 60day IL right away.
Yeah ! How crunchy can woodruff be when considering brewers finances at time of cutting him ? Now they can pay him whatever, especially if they deal adames.
Deal adames preseason and the team picking him up can offer a QO at end of season
Haul? Think his value is limited with salary, last year of control, and recent performance. Not saying no value but not a haul value.
I do agree, to an extent. You’re right in pointing out that he’s in his final year of control, and he’s coming off a mediocre offensive performance. That said, he has pop, and he’s a terrific defender at a premium position. He’s a great guy in the clubhouse; teammates seem drawn to him. The return won’t be a “haul,” but adding some salary relief would probably help. I say “probably” because if it’s the Dodgers, I’m not sure they would even care about the money.
I would consider woo or Emerson hancock a haul. Mason black would be a haul
Thought Theo Epstein joining FSG would make the opener. The Brewers situation and payroll nearing $100m is definitely interesting though. If I remember correctly from the article a little while back about the money teams bring in from their TV contracts, the Crew ranked among the lowest/worst. That was definitely a surprise.
I’d imagine they’ll have a separate, stand-alone article on that. Considering the vast number of properties FSG owns, who knows what impact he’ll have on the Red Sox.
Maybe Epstein is coming in to run the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Brewers TV deal is 1/6th that if the Dodgers.
If you look at the allocation each team gets from the revenue sharing pool the Brewers payroll is usually right about that figure.
They are a small market club doing it the right way.
Milwaukee is the smallest tv market in Baseball currently, which makes it all the more puzzling why MLB thinks a team in Vegas will succeed with a fringe fan base and an even smaller tv market
Rsox,
John Fisher is chasing the Las Vegas gambling money. I’m not sure how receptive the city will be to an owner that has treated the fans in Oakland as poorly as he has. This might not work out he thinks it will.
Whats more interesting is in recent articles from Ken Rosenthal and Jeff Passan both bring up the fact that Fisher has blown through multiple MLB imposed deadlines on where the team is going to play in 2025. The A’s have no funding or even agreement in place with Vegas, or anywhere else and Fisher is at the center doing absolutely nothing
Yup, Fisher didn’t plan this out very well. Serves him right for being a jerk to the Oakland fanbase.
As a Pirates fan, I don’t understand the Brewers thinking here. I thought the guy was the ace of the staff for a team that looks to go higher this year
One step back, two steps forward? They know they’re losing him after 2024, so they’re taking the opportunity to position themselves for more than one year. That said, I don’t love the return, but their internal evaluations are what matters.
The Brewers seemed to be a starter short. Now they need to sign Snell and Montgomery. The Hoskins signing makes no sense.
Taking the field today they’re probably a 78 win team even if Hoskins has a great comeback season.
If the Brewers couldn’t afford Burnes there is no way they can afford Snell. Montgomery is possible but they are not on the same tier. Counsell leaving was a sign the Brewers window was closing and this trade shows it’s pretty much closed
I would target Mike Clevinger. He’s not the pitcher he used to be but can still provide middle rotation numbers and eat up innings until Misiorowski and Gasser are ready.
DL Hall has a high ceiling, either as a starter or reliever. Ortiz is a fine SS who has put his hitting profile together. Both players are trending in the right direction. MIL gets a comp pick this draft and the O’s get it right back in 25 when Burnes departs. This was a great get for both teams right now.
DL Hall looks like his ceiling is high leverage relief at best. Still hasn’t topped 100IP in the minors. Hard to envision he turns that around in the big leagues.
Brewers got fleeced, but this may have been the best offer they got. Maybe they should have waited to mid season?
The Brewers did well in this trade. DL Hall could be Josh Hader all over again. But if the Brewers, who know something about pitching as an organization, can make him a great starter. After the AS break last year, DL Hall was being used out of the pen, and he seemed to have turned a corner finally; attacking hitters, first pitch strikes, and really kept himself in check. He always seemed like one of those guys that was trying too hard, but post AS break really seemed to become more measured and less amped up on shear will power.
Honestly shocked they moved him, since it’s no secret the Os have the young bats…but young arms they are not stocked well on. And power Lefty pitchers aren’t that common, even in today’s age.
This looks like the Brewers punting on 2024 to me if they don’t acquire a new high end starter. Maybe they’ll make a transition to Dylan Cease.
I’ve seen the Brewers getting ripped for the trade, but their history of trades and of contending, suggests they are not exactly rubes, dunces or novices at this. Thanks for the unbiased analysis of the trade.
I think the Brewers are going to make a splash for Snell or Montgomery.
Then why wouldn’t they just extend Burnes?
I don’t think that’s unreasonable. IF they think the can get similar production out of snell or Montgomery that they would have from burns and they add 2 ML ready players and some very good value at the 34 pick. You might just be on to something
Biggest contracts in Brewers history were both to players already on the roster: Yelich for $215m over 9 years and Braun for $105m over 5. If either Montgomery or Snell are willing to take the kind of deal the Brewers would be willing to offer, they’d be able to sign with pretty much anyone.
*Braun. I guess editing the comment didn’t work.
The fact that they needed to trade Burnes at all, rather than extend him, is an ownership problem. But that is what it is. Given the reality of the situation, trading Burnes was the right move.
Whether they got the best deal they could or not I have absolutely no idea. I’ll say that their history of trades and contending was primarily under David Stearns, who did not make this move. But we’ll see what happens.
I don’t know of any business owner who is willing to lose tens of millions of dollars annually to retain a single employee. The Brewers have the smallest TV market and have been willing to lose $$$ to make a push in any given year but extending Burnes for say 8yrs/$350MM only hamstrings management from building a roster when Burnes and Yelich’s salaries take up 50-60% of your total payroll budget. Hence why the traded him for cost controlled players who can help them remain competitive while clearing future salary obligations.
I know why they traded him and it makes sense to do so given their financial restraints. I think I disagree with you about how much of those restraints are self-imposed.
Whenever the Brewers push payroll into the $130MM range they typically lose $$$ even when they make the playoffs and are able to generate additional revenue. They will never have deep enough pockets to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox.
Their history also included Counsell and Stearns, neither of which are there any longer.
One thing that kind of hamstrings the arbiters is that they have to choose one side or the other; they should be allowed to pick a number in between if warranted.
I think they hold Williams until the deadline, like they did with Hader. If they end up contending maybe they hold Williams until next offseason or next deadline.
Adames needs to be traded before Spring Training, though. And on a 2-year deal Hoskins could end up being trade-bait sometime between this deadline and the next one, or else be a big contributor to a contending Brewers team.
Burnes will be a Dodger after this year.
Burnes
Ohtani
Yamamoto
Glasnow
Buehler
Miller
Is a pretty decent 6 man IMO
Okay, that’s clearly a profane staff-ment. Please keep it family friendly and don’t scare people.~
🙂
Kinda stunned the Orioles moved another power Lefty SP…again.
E-Rod
Josh Hader
Eric Bedard
E-Rod and Josh Hader never threw a pitch for the MLB club before being traded. Both were traded for 1 year or less rentals. At least Bedard was a rebuilding move.
Moving a controllable pitcher is not dealing from the Orioles depth, in fact, contrary to it.
With the new dimensions of Camden Yards, Lefty pitchers maximize the park effect. Sure, Snell and Montgomery are both lefties but we’re talking about the Orioles, so yeah, not gonna happen there.
Hall career path, to me, more resembles that of a Tanner Scott. Thought it was wise to move him now while he is still considered high value.
Where’d Tanner Scott come from, I forgot if he was an early Rule 5 guy or product of one of the sell-off trades? But he wasn’t a SP, nor a first round pick from HS.
Hard throwing lefty with spotty control, yeah, they share that. But pedigrees (for whatever that’s worth) were little different.
Also, post AS break, Hall in the pen seemed to have finally matured. His work was very, and his command issues were much better, and his body language was more stable.
Too me, Hall has the higher ceiling by a fair bit over Ortiz. That’s not knocking Ortiz, I think he’ll be borderline All-star for a couple years.
Who knows but ol’ man Time.
Yes. Definitely different pedigree. And, I hope I’m all wrong here. Wish nothing but the best for DL. That said, it’s the command thing. IMO, not sure he’ll ever quite find it thus comparison to Scott. By the way, not all bad, Tanner is fairing well in Miami … making 5+ mil this year!
How is Joely Rodriguez a bounce back candidate if he was never good to begin with?
Sign Hoskins but deal Burnes. Will the Brewers go after a pitcher now to replace Burnes? That would make some sense, cash-strapped or not, if the Brewers felt they could not sign Burnes but improve their team with a trade and a signing.
Good analysis on the increased likelihood of Adames and Williams being dealt. Different reasons though. Trading Adames just clears a path for the new shortstop. Trading Williams would signal a full rebuild. Each player has very real value though, and could bring significant young assets back to Milwaukee.
I actually didn’t think the Brewers would trade Burnes, and just ride out 2024 and get the comp pick. Now I don’t think they’re such a shoe in to win the NL Central. All five teams in the Central can make a run at that division. The trade deadline will be very interesting if the Brewers start to fall off and decide to trade controllable pieces.
With Burnes and Woodruff gone, they don’t have a better rotation than anyone in the Central. Their pitching made them super competitive with 3 excellent starters paired with Williams and Hader in the pen. They look to be rebuilding this year.
It wasn’t that long ago the Brewers won the division with a starting rotation headed by Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson.
I remember this rotation. That was a pretty horrendous group. Chacin, Anderson, Junior Guerra, Brett Suter and Wade Miley were the top 5 and then they added Gio Gonzales who pitched lights out in his 5 starts.
Thank goodness Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, and Davies were all brought up that season to help them push the Dodgers to 7 games in the NLCS.
I think the bounce-back ship has sailed on those last 3 relievers. Maybe Hand. Maybe
As a Giants fan please go get Ademes Farhan he makes sense.
If the Brewers are shopping for more starting pitching, look for them at the Dollar Store. The team is in total rebuild mode so look for Adames and Williams and MAYBE Yelich to be with new teams soon.
With the signing of maton. Where does that leave the rest of the rhp relief group? Stanek, junis, chavez, brasier, law. Would love to see Pittsburgh pickup another reliable bullpen arm. Preferably junis or law, can go long if needed.