The Red Sox locked up Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to contract extensions this past spring, but no deal developed between the team and Tanner Houck, even though the two sides had some negotiations. Houck confirmed to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that some “discussions” took place, “but we’re at where we are now. I put that behind me whenever we shook hands and said, ’Let’s go out and win as many games as we can.’ ” There’s nothing preventing Houck and the Sox from restarting talks, though it would seem that Houck (like most players) prefers to save contractual matters for the offseason to cut down on potential distractions.
The right-hander also doesn’t even reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, so since he is already under team control through 2027, Boston might not feel too much urgency to lock Houck up on an extension. Of course, given how Houck has pitched this season, the Sox might’ve missed their window for landing Houck at a relative bargain price. Houck has broken out with a 2.17 ERA over 58 innings and nine starts, and his secondary metrics are highlighted by impressive grounder (55.2%), walk (4.7%) and barrel (3.7%) rates. Even in a season marked by impressive pitching around baseball, Houck has stood out, as his 1.9 fWAR is behind only Tarik Skubal as the highest in the league.
More from the AL East…
- Tommy Kahnle is on pace to be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to the Yankees’ game on Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Kahnle threw ten pitches in a scoreless inning for Double-A Somerset today, which marks his fifth and likely final rehab outing. The reliever hasn’t pitched in a big league game since September 20, as a bout of shoulder inflammation prematurely ended his 2023 campaign, and then more inflammation this spring led to a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL. Getting Kahnle back in good health will add another yet quality arm to a New York relief corps that led the majors in bullpen ERA entering today’s action.
- Anthony Santander has been battling a bruised left knee since Wednesday, when he collided with the outfield wall in pursuit of a Bo Bichette fly ball. After the Orioles had an off-day Thursday, Santander felt well enough to serve as the DH in Baltimore’s last two games, but didn’t play at all in today’s 6-3 win over the Mariners. Santander told MLB.com and other media that he is hoping one more day of rest will help calm the still-lingering soreness in his knee, and he described his knee as feeling “about 75 percent” when running, so some more DH duty might be in order. Santander is hitting .210/.290/.427 with seven homers over 176 plate appearances this season, still good for a respectable 106 wRC+ but also a comparative weak link in the powerful Orioles lineup.
- For most on the Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays, check out another set of AL East Notes published earlier today on MLBTR.
The Royals should be trying to pry Santander from the O’s. And the O’s should be determining which couple of failed Royals prospects they can turn into productive major leaguers.
That does not sound like a recipe for success
How does that benefit the O’s while in contention?
Santander is a free agent after this season. Doubt the Royals would be interested
The Os would trade Santander quickly for the right bullpen piece. They have plenty of outfielders and Santander is a pending free agent that will not receive a QO
Gorav – no disrespect but this makes no sense. Besides the fact that the Os won’t trade a middle of the order bat to make room for a prospect in the middle of a pennant race, the only team that would want a pending FA is another contender so why would they trade a front line reliever.
I agree he may not get a QO, but that’s not guaranteed. He’s always been a slow starter so he’ll get going and in the end it depends whether they believe Kjerstad is the real deal.
Finally their pen has been better than most and Tate and Tyler Wells could be mid year upgrades. What they miss is Felix and you don’t get that in a trade for an outfielder.
He’s not getting a QO unless he goes on some ungodly tear where he produces better than he’s ever produced and the Os need him for the playoff push. Even if it’s a mirror of last year, he’s not getting a QO.
Santander is prototypical trade fodder. And this is his last valuable year for a team exiting a rebuild. It would be dumb not to trade him.
I would ditch Austin Hays before Santander.
You are looking at my comment by itself opposed to in response to someone else that said the Os should trade him for a Royals failed prospect. That is not something they would do. The only way they would is like you said, if it lines up with another contender such as Cleveland. Guardians desperately need outfielders and have a lot of pitching.
well, to be honest neither did the OHearn pick up from the Royals. he didn’t look good in his time in KC to expect what he’s been to the O’s.
The point of an early extension for a young player is, from the team’s standpoint, to create known dollar amounts into the foreseeable future that represent some kind of savings over what would be full market value of the player–this is the player’s advantage of the extension, less money for guaranteed security. The Sox don’t know how to play this game, which they showed with Whitlock, then Bello, then Rafaela. None is a future certainty. All are probably replaceable by the end of their six years of control. Yet the Sox have overpaid for all three. They should stop this practice now until they gain an understanding of how it works and to whom it should be applied..
I’m not sure we can say that until we fully see how they end up, but I do agree that they are more negligent by signing a guy like Bello over Houck or Rafaela over Casas. Time will tell though, and you can’t really blame injuries.
Honestly, I like the Rafaela signing. His versatility alone makes him marketable. Whitlock was a good gamble (if we use him right), but Bello we signed way too early. Does Bello hurt us either way money-wise? Probably not but he may hurt us when we have better rotation options and are forced to start him.
It’s not fair to grade after the fact. When the Yankees locked up a certain pitcher and outfielder, most were happy at the time. In Houck’s case, the Sox wanted to see how he responded to surgery as if Houck was not interested in compromising for security, he could have and could still end up being another bad deal (if one had been reached) and he again ends up injured.
Dewey, the other thing with Houck was he was really searching for another GOOD pitch, relying on the offerings he was using just didn’t get him through the order enough times.
The new sheriffs in town really helped him in that regard and it’s made all the difference.
I was happy about their process when they locked up Severino and Hicks. Sevy had ace stuff but I can fault him for being injured. He was also a good teammate. Hicks didn’t work out but it’s not like he handcuffed the team’s ability to spend as they never stopped. There was no doubt from Yankees fans that the org was going to continue to maintain a high payroll. No one knows what Henry will do so I can see why fans are skeptical of these extensions.
Agreed GA.
It’s too early to vote on the extensions but yes Henry and his wallet is the issue. Regardless of locking up those you believe in and can, will he spend on Duran and Casas if/when he has to and simultaneously will he splurge on a key top free agent or two like he used to? This time sells itself as a destination and big market club but has used its money elsewhere in the corporate world. Should that pattern continue, fans will leave. The question in my view is how many? Will it be enough to hurt their bottom line?
I was happy about their process when they locked up Severino and Hicks.
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There is some 20/20 hind sight going on. As a RS fan, I thought they were good extensions. Of course, the problem with any extension is that you can never be sure if there isn’t a shooting pain in someone’s arm while they are signing.
But these were both very good players.
Duran will be 32 when he becomes a FA. He likely doesn’t need to be extended. Locking in some certainty for his control years, in exchange for 1-2 options years, is probably good for both sides, but not 100% necessary.
And i wouldn’t NOT extend Houck because we hope to extend Casas.. We can’t count on Casas agreeing to an extension, and we easily afford it, assuming of course that Henry spends to the cap.
@JoeBrady What does hindsight have to do with it? My position hasn’t changed. I’m all for early extensions even when they sometimes don’t work out bc of its limited associated risks. The Yankees have continued to gamble with high-priced, free agents and acquisitions which has far greater downside.
Agreed Joe.
Joe, big question on Henry who might be planning on selling the franchise. What else makes sense? As for Duran, I understand what you’re saying and totally agree. Give Duran credit for playing his butt off and continuing to improve on both sides of the ball. I wanted either him or Yoshida dealt this past off season because of their defense. Now Duran is playing like a stud. He though may bet on himself and go year to year in arbitration should the Sox not pony up a fair deal. Every day he’s improving his value.
Yup. You get all Duran’s prime years already. I wouldn’t feel any urgency to extend him at all.
RE—Severino and Hicks—Severino I thought was fantastic. Hicks I thought was decent at the time but he had a long injury history prior to that.
Dewey – I seriously doubt Henry has any intention of selling the franchise. It’s too profitable and helps fund so many of the FSG initiatives/empire.
I think they’re definitely bankrolling money for the fenway corners initiative, and it’s a cash cow to help cover things like the speculative PGA venture.
It’s more a case of extracting as much as possible from the red sox asset while putting in as little as possible in order to fund such things.
Let’s not forget we’ve got guys like Anthony on the farm, and, eventually Rafaela will not be needed in the infield should Mayer pan out.
The sox have additional young OFers that will be going up before the age 32 season of Duran.
Please explain “how it works and to whom it should be applied..”.
YBC – I explained the first part in my prior post. As to whom it should be applied, they should have locked up Pivetta and maybe Duran last offseason.
Next offseason Duran, Crawford and Houck. Casas can wait.
YBC – There is a formula for doing early signs that makes sense and then there is the Red Sox approach which makes absolutely no sense.
A player has 6 0r 7 years of control depending on when they are brought to the MLB. The first 3 years are pre-arb. NEVER do a long term deal when a player is in pre=arb because no future skill level is established during that time period. Sure a guy like Acuna or Trout clearly shows great skills during those years but he doesn’t establish his consistency of performance. So the size of his pay can NOT be determined in his pre-arb years. If you wait to the end of his first arbitration year you can more clearly read his consistency, durability and team chemistry. In the case of a guy like Mookie he may have already won an MVP.
So when did the Red Sox choose to offer extensions:
Whitlock = at age 26 as a pre-arb 3 he got an $18.75MM contract for 4 years. While the payments escalated over the four years his play didn’t. He could have been paid his normal $1MM or less through 2022 and then let arbitration define his next jump in pay. Thanks to one good year it would have been his only GOOD JUMP. He’s been hurt on and off ever since and is not a long term keeper.
Bello signed his contract in PRE ARB 2 prior to the season so he had 5 more control years where he could be paid normal pre-arb money while he proves himself. Instead, of paying him roughly $1MM for 2024 and 2025 and letting arbitration establish his value in 2026 then deciding if he’s a keeper and at what cost Boston shot their wad prematurely to the tune of $55MM. while the money escalates as each year passes the odds of TJ surgery also escalates. If he needs it by the end of 2024 then he’ll miss 2025 and possibly part of 2026 and we won’t know how much he will be impacted by the surgery as he heads into his more expensive years. Really a bad move!!
Smart conditional 7th year at $21MM if he is worth $21MM in 2030 but that is a huge IF. Had they waited until prior to the 2027 season the TJ issue may have happened or maybe it would be clear that his arm isn’t going to need it. Maybe he’ll be a Cy Young candidate by then or simply a mid rotation SP. At that point he could have been offered a 6 year deal that would cover 2 controlled years and 4 FA years. Estimating his fair pay would have been easier with more data. Keeping him longer would be a good thing if he turns out to be an excellent pitcher. If he doesn’t, then not making him a long offer gives more money to a more deserving candidate.
Rafaela is in a similar situation but shouldn’t have a TJ issue. Rafaela is PRE ARB 1!!!!! That’s insanity. Great athleticism true but NO GUARANTEES based on performance at the MLB level. He should have been paid $1MM for 3 years then had arbitration establish how good he is just like Mookie since he appears to have similar talent. Going into the 2028 season he should have been offered an 8 to 10 year deal since he would be 27 that year. He would have been a lifetime Red Sox player if he established himself as great during years 1 to 4 with the club. Now, instead, they have a club option at age 31 and if he is an all-star he will finish his career in NY or LA. Bad MOVE but cost effective if he is an excellent player during the 8 years. This is the best of the three contracts but he is put in a Mookie situation because after the 8 years his free agency will lead him away from Boston for some of the best years of his career if he turns into a stud like Mookie.
YBC – With 6 years of control and the first three at roughly $1MM you should never touch a long term contract until at least after year 4 of the 6 years of control. If you target 6 to 10 years depending on how good the player is then you control the player 10 to 14 years of his career. If the player is a College Player then he’s likely to play his whole career with your team if he is excellent. If he’s a foreign player it will depend on how long it takes to make the MLB team legitimately not like Devers did. His premature promotion in 2017 cost Boston a ton of money. If he had come up as Sept call-up in 2018 to pinch hit in September we wouldn’t be buried under his ridiculous contract and he’d be playing DH his whole career and Boston would have won many, many more games thanks to the improved defense.
I hope this explanation helps you understand why it’s bad baseball to prematurely promote and pay players so fans are happy. It’s not in the best interest of the ball club which in turn means it’s not really in the best interest of the fans either.
Fury – FANTASTIC post! It is so true, the Sox front office is incapable of critical thinking and instead looks to mimic other teams without fully grasping how.
First they tried to emulate the Rays with their dumpster diving and failed miserably.
Now they are trying to emulate the Braves. What they fail to grasp is the Braves WAITED until Acuna and Strider had great years before extending them. The Sox obviously tried to go cheap with Rafaela, Bello and Whitlock by locking them up BEFORE they proved themselves in the majors… or in Whitlock’s case, before he proved he could be a SP and remain healthy. Obviously the results thus far have been not good.
They should have focused on signing Houck over Whitlock imho. Whitlock doesn’t feel like a guy who is ever going to be 100% healthy, and that is all on the RS for yanking him around from reliever to starter and back and forth.
Plan B. We should just let Fever Pitch Guy run the team.
It wouldn’t matter much with Chaim Breslow’s purse unless it held Henry’s wallet.
I’m still not sold Pivetta will be the pitcher he is all year. I can pass on him.
Pivetta is a question but hopefully no one will blow him away with an offer and he finds staying is his best option. I say this because while inconsistent for most of his career, he’s shown , a) going to the pen doesn’t faze hi and b) he’s usually durable.
I do agree on his durability
I would extend him for a couple of reasons.
1-Like you said, he’s pretty durable.
2-He looks like he can handle Boston. That’s always a consideration.
3-He’s already 31, so I suspect he is not looking to break the bank. If I thought I could get a reasonable price for 3 years, plus maybe throw in a player option based on IPs, I would do it.
If the AAV was reasonable, I’d go a flat four with an innings pitched incentive to lock in the fifth. He will get paid by some team and I’d like a Pedroia type deal here. Pivetta seems like he will go for more than five years and the longer it is, the lower the AAV you expect it will be. The question will be year to year consistency.
There are two major benefits to an early extension for the team, neither of which you mention. The first is to buy out a couple years of free agency at an affordable price tag. It isn’t the dollar amount that kills you in free agency — it is signing a declining player for more years than he will be productive. Unless a player is a true star, he isn’t going to be nearly as productive at the age of 35 that he was when he hit free agency at the age of 29.
The second benefit is to spread the luxury tax hit for those highly-paid seasons across more years. The Red Sox aren’t anywhere near the luxury tax threshold this year, and won’t be next year either, so they benefit from pulling the tax hit forward. This will allow them to spend more money in the future should they choose to do so (and luxury tax penalties are massive).
Age is a huge factor in these deals. The Red Sox already control Jarren Duran through the age of 31 in arbitration, so they have little motivation to buy out years of free agency. But in the case of Rafaela, he would have hit free agency after his age 28 season — so it makes a lot more sense for the club to buy out a couple years of free agency (with a club option for a third year) even if the price tag seems on the high side right now.
I agree that none is a future certainty. Who exactly is a certainty? Want a list of “sure thing” superstars who crapped out?
Rafaela is just so raw and his plate discipline is such an issue to me that I really didn’t like that one.
There’s significant upside if he becomes a hit—I just don’t think that he becomes a star or multi-year all star.
the hope is that he continues to improve in that area. That being said the money committed to Rafaela isn’t outrageous.
Pricing out his contract, he is basically being paid like Kevin Kiermaier. A good player but hardly a multi-year all star. And I think it is a decent bet that Rafaela reaches that level.
Acel – It’s outrageous for a guy with zero WAR in 89 career PA’s. There is nothing worse than paying a player millions to NOT play for you, so far that looks like a very real possibility in a few years with Rafaela.
The Sox are enamored with his athleticism and versatility, but the total lack of plate discipline and many dumb errors are major red flags.
TFF – Rays didn’t give that extension to Kevin until after he earned 2 Gold Gloves and MVP votes. They waited until after his third season. They paid him only the minimum for his first two seasons.
Red Sox were way too quick to give Rafaela that extension.
Tell me that in eight years… I see it as a good risk, a bargain price on a player who has the raw talent to be better than Kiermaier.
Admittedly his game needs some work, but he should improve with experience. Red flags, but also good reason to believe he will grow past them.
it’s not outrageous at all. it’s a calculated risk and a low one at that. The lack of plate discipline is a problem. the alleged “dumb errors” from a player universally praised for elite defense are not.
This is a long term move not a short term one and thus it requires time to completely evaluate.
TFF – Not waiting to see if his minor league skills translate to the majors seems like a bad risk to me.
Let’s hope he improves and matures as a player. So far, not good.
Acel – Of course your last sentence is right, time will tell how it works out. That doesn’t change the fact it was a foolish signing.
And 8 errors says otherwise about the defense, along with analytics. Yes he makes some great plays, but he is not anywhere consistent defensively.
So give it time to evaluate. You’re an instant gratification type of guy but I’ll trust the talent evaluators that say he’s an 80 level defender.
106 wRC+ is a “weak” link? That could be one of the best in many teams.
Before the season started I said to extend Houck for cheap because he will become the righty Chris Sale and he is turning into him in front of our eyes. The Sox missed the boat!
I think Houck need to show he can stay healthy and pitch at least 150 innings in a season before they extend him as a starter. He hasn’t come close to that yet.
What a Tonto he’s had one injury only in 2022 last year he got hit in the face and your gonna hold that against him
Houck needed back surgery in 2022
masslive.com/redsox/2022/09/tanner-houck-undergoes…
What part of one injury in 2022 did you not understand
If you would actually write sentences, it would help. Back surgery doesn’t concern you?
Suit: the only problem with your theory is . If Houck pitches 150 plus innings he will expect more $ . The Sox front office is going to go with a cheap offer and expect that he can get 150 plus .
Bdog: I’d rather pay more after knowing Houck is durable. Everyone will have a different opinion based on how much risk they want to take.
If Houck pitches 150 plus innings he will expect more $ .
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I was going to write the same thing. The larger the guarantee that the RS want, the larger the price tag Houck will want.
Injuries are a legitimate concern, as is the fact that he’s never had a big season. Plus he will be 31+ when he starts his next contract.
But it feels like we should be locking in as many as possible. We have the money, and stability & continuity are important.
Good comment, JoeBrady.
There needs to be a meeting of the minds to get a guy signed. If the player believes he is worth more than what the team is willing to pay for, then he has a chance to prove it on the field. Once the two parties can agree on the performance level to expect a deal is much easier.
Joe and TFF17 – Fun facts – Tanner Houck is 28 in 2024 and played ball in college so arrived later to Boston than the non college players. In 2020 at the age of 24 three years after being drafted by DD Houck started his control time clock ticking and was paid just $40.5K for his 2020 season when he faced just 63 batters gave up 6 hits, 9 walks and 1 earned run. He won all three games he pitched in and averaged 6.1/3 innings per start. His ERA+ was 920!! Since 2020 he has been jerked around by Cora like many pitchers but when you look at his numbers he’s provided ERA+ of 133 in 2021, 134 in 2022 and 91 in 2023 due to bad coaching. With new pitching coaches in 2024 his ERA+ is back up to 191. So FOUR great ERA+ numbers and one bad one in 5 seasons.
Do you know he’s made just $2.459MM in those five season!!! He’s far better than Whitlock and Bello from a results standpoint but has been so disrespected that he’s made next to no money with four of five outstanding seasons. It’s a travesty. It shows the prejudice in the Red Sox organization. Not being a Latin is killing Houck just like it had negative impacts on Sale thanks to Cora. Cora is a Latin bigot and he proves it everyday. All fans want is for the manager, coaching staff and front office to treat the players equally regardless of skin color, religion or home country. That hasn’t happened since Farrell was fired.
Houck is now in his arbitration years and that’s when long term deals should happen unlike Whitlock, Bello and Rafaela. Houck hasn’t proven as much as he could have if Cora hadn’t screwed with his role over the years but clearly in 2024 he is a keeper and deserves some significant money to make up for all he got screwed out of by Cora misusing him.
Much like Mookie, Houck is not seeking too much money, he’s seeking market value as he should. I’m sure ATL would take him in a heartbeat just like Sale. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the issues in the Boston front office. In a word, it’s prejudice.. Breslow needs to turn the tide and start making smart signings not country oriented or Cora oriented signings. Treat the players fairly and get rid of Cora and this organization can recover from all the damage of the last four to five years since DD was fired.
Suggest you dig into the MLB salary structure. In their first three years, players earn the ML minimum. Houck’s $770k is actually a little higher than the current minimum of $740k.
Next year he will earn an arbitration-level salary. The system is pretty formulaic these days, to the extent that the MLBTR predictions are generally on target. Service time is the key factor there, so a fifth year player earns more than a comparable fourth year player, and a sixth year player earns more than that.
Houck is *NOT* in his arbitration years. He had 2.100 years of service time at the start of the season, shy of the three years needed to qualify for arbitration. That is why he is not being paid an arbitration-level salary.
I realize that the MLB salary structure is pretty arcane (and twisted!), but you have to understand it in detail to make heads or tails of the salaries.
TFF17 – So lets count the seasons together. In 2020 he came up briefly that started the clock. In 2021 he played in 18 games and started 13 of them. He got paid a pro-rated salary that year. Why? Must be something in the last CBA because historically you are paid by the season after you have your September call-up.
In 2021 he played three games in April, three games in July, five games in August and 7 games in SEPT/OCT. Why does that not count as his pre-arb 1?
2022 should have been his pre-arb 2 and 2023 his pre-arb 3. That would make 2024 his ARB 1 under normal circumstances and I was not aware of any special circumstances. What is that special circumstance that skipped 2021 as a valid pre-arb season?
NOW HERE IS WHAT I WAS FOCUSING ON WITH RESPECT TO THE DISRESPECT SHOWN HOUCK.
Bello like Houck was in the minors and came up on July 22, 2022 and made $340K in 2022. He pitched 57.1 IP with an ERA of 4.71. In 2023, his minimal contract with only 13 games under his belt and an unimpressive ERA landed him a minimal salary of $1.049MM !!! Not $770K. Compare that to Houck who pitched 69 IP in 18 games with a 3.52 ERA and he got paid $716K, not even the $770K he NOW makes two years later. I get that some fluke happened that lengthened his pre-arb time but seriously why did he deserve less?
I’ve shown you the numbers and he’s always been better than Bello except one year and Bello made over a million before he was good. That’s prejudice.
If I were Houck, I’d take the front office to the cleaners during arbitration and tell them to shove any offer up their hind quarters for insulting him when he was younger.
That’s how you lose the best pitcher and contracted the third best pitcher long term. In the meantime, Crawford has been down the traditional route of being paid the minimum through his three pre-arb seasons like Bello should have been.
So BOS has three nice pitchers.treated three different ways!!
Houck got insulted.
Crawford got treated normal.
Bello got special treatment.
Exactly the opposite of their skill and value to the team.
The front office sucks and deserve what they have right now.
The standard contract is pro-rated by days on the major league roster. For example Winckowski right now is being paid at the minor league rate, NOT the major league rate, and is not accruing service time.
You can find semi-official service time info on fangraphs.com or at Cot’s Contracts. Am sure other places carry that as well. But the real clue that he isn’t yet arbitration eligible is that he wasn’t arbitration eligible last year.
Won’t debate the treatment of the three, you could be right on that. If Houck had stayed in the majors from his first callup then he would have an extra year of service time already and would be working on his first arbitration year.
Not sure you understand the arbitration process? You can’t “take the front office to the cleaners” in arbitration. Doesn’t really work like that. If he feels that he has been disrespected, of course, then the cost to sign him long-term goes way up.
KD17/trolled isn’t right. Houck has not shown consistent success as starter until this year and he’s not right about the “treatment” of the players.
I like Houck and believed last year was a fluke.
Moobs – Many of us here saw the potential in Houck, but it took the three B’s to bring it out. Under Bush I don’t think he would have as good a season.
Fever – I remember a guy who stated Houck would be the ace of the staff 3 years ago when he proved to be an outstanding starter and the nay sayers weren’t going on and on about the fact that he can’t make it through the order three time!! What bull crap.
With the new pitching coaches Sale would have been huge this year since his style of pitching is a mirror reflection of Houck’s.
Sure was a smart move to throw away $17MM and Sale to get a pre-arb 1 2B whose only claim to fame is that he hit for average in the minors.
Houck, Crawford and possibly Bello could turn out to be stalwarts of the rotation and all thanks to DD!!!!! Mookie and DD, devastating loses that will cost the franchise for a decade.
TF – Awesome post as always!!
I said this during the 2021 season watching Houck come up big, he has the perfect makeup to be an ace. Tough as nails, a true badass, tons of confidence, nothing fazes him. The way he came back from that facial fracture last year doesn’t surprise me. I’m so glad he and Duran didn’t get traded like so many here wanted, especially after the vax controversy which was incredibly dumb.
Houck takes after you and I, he is his own man who forms his own thoughts and opinions, and makes his own decisions. He doesn’t follow the crowd or let anybody intimidate him.
They weren’t going to sign Sale beyond this year anyways, and he wouldn’t have made a difference in 2024. Good for Sale to move him to a contender, and good for the Red Sox to get a decent young 2B (unless you really want to see more of Valdez, Reyes, and Yorke)?
TFF17 – Nothing you stated is true. If Sale got the same benefit from the new pitching coaches that Houck did he would have flourished in Boston because he’s proving it in Atlanta. Returning to all-star form would have created a perfect excuse to resign Sale since he finally is what he was before Cora and his coaches got their hands on him. He is the SP1 we need and we paid another team to haul him away just like Mookie and Price. The front office have been idiots since DD was fired.
How can you call Grissom a decent young 2B? There is no track record of him being good, bad, decent or league average. He’s simply a young 2B who hit for an average without power, speed or a great eye at the plate. His defense in the minors was adequate. He’s an unknown at this point and we paid ATL $17MM to take an all-star off our hands and give us a complete unknown. That’s a horrible deal.
Second base is one of the most inconsequential positions on the field and SP is one of the most important. Would you rather have a great 2B over SS? 3B? LF, CF, RF or 1B? NO. Only a catcher is less consequential and that’s because there are so few great ones but tons of mediocre ones like the Red Sox have. That’s why Teel could be a key to a successful future.
TFF – Sox had a $20M option on Sale for next year. Unless they are planning to tank next year too, he’d have been a very valuable piece in 2025 at an absolute bargain price.
You really believe that ownership would pay Sale what he would command on a new contract after a strong rebound season? Seriously? What have they done in the last five years that suggests that?!? If they are willing to let Betts and Bogaerts go because they don’t want to pay them, why would they pay Sale?
Grissom will be fine, give him time. I doubt he will be a great player, but over the long run he’ll contribute more than letting Sale walk as a free agent.
Do you believe they intend to contend in 2025? Do you believe they have the offense necessary to do so? Might be possible if they were willing to spend money, but we know that isn’t the case.
TFF – I’m hoping another embarrassing season and sinking bottom line will motivate them to spend next year.
Right now hope is all we’ve got.
TFF17 = Always remember the value of Grissom is the incremental amount he is better than a league average player who costs much less. If Grissom’s upside is not at least above league average then it was a total waste of money. Being a decent average hitter with no power, speed and not a great defender makes him a utility player that will get to play because of the way they got him. He won’t earn a starting spot, he’ll get it because he cost so much. We don’t know that he will be any better than Yorke who we already had. Both are incredibly young and could suddenly break out as an above league average player and we paid a team with a front office much smarter than ours $17MM for a guy who could end up starting an all=star game again in the future. If you have good pitching coaches like we do now, Sale’s value goes back to where it was in 2017 when he played for Farrell.
Absolutely agree, I expect Grissom to be a 2-3 WAR player once he adjusts to the majors. We will see who is right.
We don’t know anything with certainty, but Yorke is putting up mediocre numbers at AA. Long way from doing that to putting up above average numbers in the majors. Grissom is easily ahead of Yorke in development.
TFF17 = I understand the arbitration process and what I meant by my comment was Houck should say stick it to every offer Boston makes during the arbitration process and force arbitration each season. Even if the bid by Boston is picked it sends the message about how pissed off he is for them screwing him during is pre-arb seasons both from a money stand point and a forcing him to be a reliever stand point which triggered the service time issue.
With respect to Yorke. I thought he was a bad pick and would be league average much like I think Grissom is going to be league average. Could one of the many other middle infielders actually be above league average? Sure it’s possible. Also, Mayer could play there since it’s my opinion Rafaela is better than Mayer. Time will tell but typical Boston prejudice has already aligned Mayer with the SS spot and an extended contract as a player they will keep just like Devers was manipulated to be the face of the franchise when Mookie was the far better player. It’s all politics and BS. I have no faith in the organization based on it’s long history of mistakes dating back to Pedro’s era.
@TF, there are definite benefits to the player of agreeing. Consider the case of JD Davis — went into arbitration, won his case, and then was released late in Spring Training. Arbitration awards are NOT guaranteed contracts, which is one reason that most players prefer to avoid that risk.
Time will tell how the middle infield works out. I’m rooting for them all to be quality starting players.
Rafaela could definitely be a good defensive shortstop with a little more experience. Mayer might not be a bad fit at 3B? The best defensive 3B are often converted shortstops.
Can’t criticize hope… But aside from the Devers extension (and that contract makes a ton of sense given his age and rare offensive ability), they haven’t signed any premier free agents in the last five years. Not their own and not ones from other teams. Instead they’ve looked for “bargains” like Story and Paxton. How has that worked out for them?
no one would describe Story as a bargain nor would they say he wasn’t a premier free agent at the time he was signed.
@acel10 They signed Story because he was substantially cheaper than what the other top shortstops were seeking (including Bogaerts). He was cheaper because he was playing through an elbow injury that hampered his effectiveness and might eventually require surgery. It did.
The Red Sox front office ticked down to the second tier, figuring that it was a “bargain’, and they got the kind of cheap crap that you usually expect when you buy from the bargain bin.
Story got a nine figure contract. That’s not the bargain bin by any stretch of the imagination. Bogarts is a terrible comp because the contract he got was designed to avoid the luxury tax hence the overpay.
Bogaerts was hardly the only shortstop to sign around then…. A healthy Story would have been cheap on that deal, but of course it was known he wasn’t healthy.
Acell – TFF is 100% correct. Story got far less than many other free agent shortstops signed that offseason and the following.
thats not the point. Story got nine figures. you can’t complain about “gross overspending “and then imply the sox were cheap when they signed story.
TFF17 – You DID NOT just write that the Devers’ deal makes sense!!! Seriously? Worst contract in the history of the Red Sox!!!! It made absolutely no sense. A half player that doesn’t belong on the field for defense and you pay him two-way elite player money. He hasn’t been an elite hitter since JD left with Bogey because he needed them to have big numbers. O’Neill and Duran can’t replace them they can simply try to not be too much worse in helping him create runs.
Calling Story’s $23.3MM for 6 years hardly seems like a bargain. That’s called a mistake but it’s a far smaller mistake than Devers’ contract or letting him play 3B. Those are colossal mistakes or monumental mistakes. Those are mistakes that should get you fired but if you can’t fire a cheating manager why would it make sense to fire a GM who threw away hundreds of millions of dollars on a one-dimensional self centered ego maniac like Devers. Devers self glorifying behavior removes the team orientation of baseball and significantly reduces the winning and the fun..
Boston has a young outfield that will get better. They have a starting staff that will continue to get better. They have a much better catcher on the way up through the minors. They have a future all-star 1B and possibly SS the way Rafaela is playing. That’s an inexpensive promising future. Add Hendriks as a closer and you have the keys to a successful team once the young guys mature a year or two. Their baseline wins won’t be at 66 in 2025, it should be much higher. It could even be a playoff team with some effective all-star quality additions but we can’t count on that so the slow steady road to Bloom recovery is going to have to be the way Boston rebuilds their shattered dynasty built by DD.
Someone should ask Philly fans if DD strips the farm system like the idiot Red Sox fans suggested. They have a dynasty in Philly and it resembles the one DD built in Boston with generational players comparable to Betts, Bogey and JD in Harper, Schwarber, Bohm and Realmuto.
Too bad the owners have such poor judgement now that they are older.
Yes, the Devers deal makes excellent sense. Teams are willing to pay $10M to $12M per WAR for position players. Devers had a down year last year after JD left, but has made adjustments (he is willing to take a walk now when the pitchers work around him rather than flailing wildly at balls out of the zone) and is having his best offensive season to date. He is a +4 to +5 WAR player through his prime.
His defense is far better than you give him credit for. He is a below average defender, but not historically bad as you have said. The hope is that he can stay at the position for another 3-5 years (or until the organization comes up with a good young 3B to replace him at the position – NOT Dalbec). When he moves off the position he is a +3 to +4 WAR player for his bat alone.
The real question is how his bat will age. But barring injury, he has the offensive tools to continue to be productive into his mid 30s. He doesn’t rely on speed or athleticism for his game the way some hitters do — which detracts from his current value but also removes a risk to his future.
Because of the age difference, paying Devers $300M made a lot more sense than paying Bogaerts $280M.
TF – The Phillies have the best record in MLB.
Dombrowski is the best in the game.
John Henry will forever be known as the man who forced out at least three HOF’ers.
I’m not a huge DD fan, but he is very good at putting together a roster of star talent — just give him a meaningful budget to work with. He didn’t really “strip the farm system” of anybody worth keeping. There was a window of several years during which the farm system wasn’t producing talent, but that isn’t entirely on DD. He inherited a farm system with gaps and some of his younger signings are only now blossoming.
That’s the rub. Henry got tired of spending money, figured he could improve his profits by holding the line on expenses. But the team revenues are flat, and the non-player expenses are edging up, so despite the level player expenses their operating income is down from the peak of 2016-2019. Looking at that through the eyes of an equity investor, not a fan, it shows all the signs of a fading business in need of a C-suite shakeup.
The Phillies have a top four payroll. The Red Sox are #11. And that is more or less the difference in their position in the standings. Of course the Phillies operating income is close to zero, much lower than the 2016-2019 period. But their revenues are up and they are building long-term brand equity.
DD inherited a top 3 farm system. it was hardly bare and there weren’t “Gaps”. And in order to be a dynasty a team has to win multiple WS titles not just make a few deep post season runs.
TFF – Fantastic post!
Yes some people here don’t realize when multiple players graduate to the majors there will inevitably be a dip in the farm system rating. The goal is to either promote or trade quality prospects for talent. The goal is never to win farm system rankings every year.
Acel – You really need to study who was in the Sox farm when Dombrowski left, and how they got there.
Dombrowski did not “inherit” Bello, Casas, Houck, Duran, Crawford and Rafaela.
My God you’re complaining about the farm when at least 4 of those guys could be All-Stars and all are starters? Seriously?
I’m not talking about when DD left. DD inherited a top 5 farm system. there’s nothing to argue to there.
Nice try though
correction top 3 farm system
acel, look at the graduations by year. There was about a five year drought – you need to graduate a couple decent players each year.
I’m basing this off system rankings at the time. The Sox had a top 3 farm system. Go look at BA’s and others rankings. It’s really not debatable.
At the time Dombrowski was hired the red sox had a top 3 farm system.
TFF17 – The one thing DD comprehends that many don’t is that he’s using PROFITS to fund his big payroll. The team pays more money to make more money. You win a championship or you come close and seats fill up and merchandising can go through the roof like it did in Texas this year.
Too bad Henry and gang aren’t smart enough to grasp the dynamics of winning baseball.
@FPG You have to consider where these guys were and how they were performing at the time of the ratings.
DD drafted a bunch of raw talent, often out of high school. These guys are inherently uncertain, and also take longer to develop. Look at how long Duran took to break in. Houck’s development wasn’t the fastest or smoothest. Rafaela is very raw. So there was a gap in the development chain between Cherington’s college picks (e.g. Benintendi) and the younger talent DD was drafting.
DD left when Henry got cheap. No reason for him to hang around through an indefinite rebuild.
@TF, Yes, exactly. Many major league clubs operate at (more or less) break-even cash flow. For obvious reasons they don’t want to run negative income for too many years in a row, but there also isn’t a need to run large profits. If you want to contend, you reinvest the money into the club and build the success and value of the brand. The profits come on the capital appreciation, just as they did for Henry between his purchase of the team (in 2002 maybe?) and the end of the playoff string in 2018.
Trying to draw $70M-$80M operating income out of the team each year is like the old practice of bleeding a patient. It weakens them until eventually they die.
TFF17 = The way earnings are reported is also a huge problem and the player’s association has complained about it since I was a kid in the 60s. Even today, operating income is reported but it’s content is not clearly identified. If you ever seen a true financial statement for an organization with full disclosure you see the profits margins of baseball. In the 80s I worked for Anheuser Busch who owned the Cardinals and I saw finanical statements including profit margins. The statement presented to the public were significantly lower than actual profitability. The Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox all clear over $300MM a year but the operating profits are publicly presented through magazines and newspapers with data released by the MLB. Boston will show $67MM when the true profits are $330MM according to 2018 numbers. Can Henry afford to bump his spending to the CAP or above? Absolutely. He can also use clever accounting practices to move the profits to other parts of the company so he can deploy them overseas or in other parts of the company. Nothing is as it appears. Baseball is far more profitable than the public is led to believe. The hidden profits can be redeployed, distributed to ownership or reinvested. Most don’t reinvest because it exposes the fact that the money actually exists and the financials publicized are bull crap.
Since Selig ousted Fay Vincent there isn’t much you can believe related to baseball. It’s just a bunch of secrets from Selig undermining Vincent to Selig using a juiced ball to bring back baseball after the 1994 strike and lying about the impact of steroids to the number of games impacted by the Houston Astros sign stealing scandal. There is no truth, no justice and no fair consequences coming forth from the commission and MLB front office..
Acel – If you’re not saying Dombrowski was bad with the farm system, then what are you saying? I don’t follow.
TFF – Great minds like Dombrowski realize it takes money to make money.
TFF – Totally agree with all but one thing, Rafaela and Bello were international free agents.
TFF – Great post!!
@FPG, International free agents are very young when they sign… Even younger than high school draftees. How does that change anything? (I realize I used the wrong term, but that wasn’t the thrust of the comment.)
Their stated revenue is $500M, so there is no way that they are clearing $330M of profits unless the revenue is badly misstated. Player salaries are the largest expense, but hardly the only expense.
If you mean that they are accepting a below-market deal from NESN for the broadcast rights, that may be true? NESN is only 80% owned by FSG though.
I agree that the declining interest in the Red Sox is likely hitting NESN profits at least as hard as it is hitting the Red Sox profits.
Also, the financial aspect of the game has changed dramatically since the 1980s. There was a lot more funny business going on before revenue sharing gave the league a vested interest in making sure that teams report some approximation of their full revenue.
acel – No answer to the question, again you bail after you get backed into a corner.
Weak, bro ….. weak.