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Anthony Santander

Blue Jays Place Anthony Santander On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Anthony Santander has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder inflammation. Fellow outfielder Alan Roden has been recalled as the corresponding move.

The Jays signed Santander to a five-year, $92.5MM deal this offseason. Heavy deferrals reportedly knock the net present value closer to $70MM but it was still the club’s biggest offseason splash as they looked to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 season.

They haven’t received much from that investment so far. Santander has six home runs and has drawn walks at an 11.5% clip but has a 26.3% strikeout rate and a .179/.273/.304 batting line. That amounts to a 67 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% worse than the league average hitter at the plate.

Santander’s .218 batting average on balls in play is really low but he’s also hitting the ball with less authority than before. He barreled up 11.7% of pitches last year but that mark is down to 4.6% this year. His current 40.8% hard hit rate would be his lowest since 2020. It’s possible that he hasn’t been fully healthy for a while. He was out of the lineup on May 10th with manager John Schneider describing his shoulder as “a little cranky”, per Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. He also missed some time due to hip soreness this month.

Ideally, a bit of rest will get him healthy and back on track. Last year, he hit 44 homers for the Orioles while only striking out 19.4% of the time and drawing walks at an 8.7% clip. That led to a .235/.308/.506 line and 129 wRC+. The Jays were surely hoping to get something resembling that level of production but haven’t gotten it yet.

The club has George Springer and Daulton Varsho in two outfield spots, while Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase and Myles Straw are also in the mix. Roden now comes up and joins that group, who will be jockeying for playing time in one of the outfield corners as well as the designated hitter slot. Roden cracked the Opening Day roster and hit just .178/.262/.260 in his first 84 big league plate appearances. He was then optioned down to Buffalo, where he has been mashing, putting up a .361/.446/.583 line for the Bisons.

Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images

Poll: Anthony Santander’s Slow Start

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After missing out on the top available free agent for the second consecutive offseason when they fell short in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Blue Jays remained in the hunt to find a slugger who could complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a hopefully resurgent Bo Bichette. Toronto had already brought Andres Gimenez into the fold as a glove-first regular, but his defensive-minded profile was never expected to be a huge boost to the lineup. After being connected to slugger Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman, and even a possible reunion with Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays finally landed Anthony Santander on a five-year, $92.5MM contract that comes with enough deferred money to lower the net present value of the deal to around $70MM.

The switch-hitting Santander swatted 44 home runs for Baltimore last year while hitting .235/.308/.506 with a 129 wRC+. That power-driven profile had proven to be fairly consistent for the slugger in recent years despite his generally low on-base numbers; Santander slashed .244/.317/.478 with a wRC+ of 124 since the start of the 2022 season. That was a long enough track record to give the Jays reasonable confidence in his ability to perform as a middle-of-the-order bat for them entering his age-30 season.

It’s a bet that hasn’t paid off so far. In Santander’s first 132 trips to the plate as a Blue Jay, he’s hit just .178/.258/.314 with a wRC+ of just 65. That’s 35% worse than league average and, in conjunction with his lackluster defense, has left him tied for the eighth-lowest fWAR total among qualified major leaguers. His overall production has been similar to that of another low on-base, defensively limited corner bat in Jake Burger, whom the Rangers just optioned to Triple-A last night due to his own struggles.

A look under the hood does suggest that Santander shouldn’t be expected to be quite this bad. While his strikeout rate has jumped four percentage points from last year, that 23.5% figure is not very different than the 23.2% he posted in 2023, when he turned in a perfectly respectable 119 wRC+. What’s more, Santander is actually walking more than ever this year. He’s garnered free passes at a solid 9.8% clip, more than two percentage points higher than his career norm. While his swinging-strike rate and contact rate are both down relative to last year, both numbers are more or less in line with his 2023 season. Between a strikeout rate within his ordinary range and the highest walk rate of his career, that .258 on-base mark seems likely to improve alongside his BABIP, which sits at an extremely low .202.

Where there is a more significant negative change in Santander’s numbers is the power department. A look at Santander’s batted-ball metrics reveals some troubling signs. His 5.7% barrel rate so far this year is his lowest since 2018, and his 39.8% hard-hit rate is also the lowest he’s posted since the shortened 2020 season. His exit velocities appear to still be more or less in line with where they have been in recent years, but Santander’s launch angle is down several points. That’s resulted in a ten-point drop in Santander’s fly ball rate and a seven-point jump in his ground-ball rate. Hitting the ball into the dirt is hardly a recipe for success for a power hitter like Santander, whose sprint speed is in the 23rd percentile of big league position players, per Statcast.

Even if Santander will need to make some changes in order to get back to being that consistent 30-to-40 homer threat he was over the past two years, the deflated BABIP and strong walk rate do suggest that he should see at least some improvements, leaving him with an xwOBA 35 points higher than his actual wOBA. Even that .293 expected figure would be Santander’s worst in a full season of plate appearances, however. It’s a troubling trend and one that the Blue Jays and Santander will need to work to correct in the coming weeks in order to get his season back on track.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Santander’s first season as a Blue Jay will shake out? Will he manage to get things back on track well enough to post numbers similar to the expectations he’s created in recent years, or will he fall short? Have your say in the poll below:

Angels Pursued Anthony Santander On Shorter-Term Deal

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The Angels showed interest in Anthony Santander on a potential three- or four-year deal, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s not clear precisely what they proposed, but it seems their reported interest in the outfielder was genuine enough to consider multi-year offers.

Santander ended up with the Blue Jays on a five-year pact. That was initially reported as a $92.5MM contract, though extreme deferrals dramatically cut the net present value. The MLB Players Association valued Santander’s deal with Toronto just below $68.6MM. He can opt out of that contract after three seasons, though the Jays could override that by preemptively exercising a 2030 club option.

It’s not known if Toronto was the only team willing to stretch to five years. Rosenthal reported last week that the Royals made a three-year offer that included an opt-out after the second season. That came with a $66MM guarantee on the surface, though it reportedly also included deferrals that would have dropped the NPV to some extent.

Assuming the Halos use Jorge Soler more or less as a full-time designated hitter, they’ve yet to do anything of note in the outfield. Late last season, they floated the idea of moving Mike Trout into a corner in an effort to keep him healthier. A free agent class led by Harrison Bader didn’t provide many options to step into center field. It has been similarly quiet on the trade front at the position. It looks like the Halos will stick with Trout in center for another season.

Taylor Ward was the subject of some trade speculation, but it seems he’ll return in left field. Santander would have been a major upgrade in right, where the Angels project to run it back with a Mickey Moniak/Jo Adell platoon. Neither one-time top prospect has been a consistent offensive threat in their major league careers. Angels right fielders hit .210/.287/.368 last season. Only the Royals got a lower on-base mark at the position, while their slugging percentage was fourth from the bottom.

At this stage of the offseason, the Angels are unlikely to find a significant outfield upgrade in free agency. There’d been some speculation that the Halos could make a push for Pete Alonso to play first base, allowing them to move Nolan Schanuel to the corner outfield. That’s theoretically still on the table as long as Alonso is unsigned, but it’d probably make for a very poor outfield defense. That’d also be true if the Angels signed Alonso as a designated hitter and put Soler back in right field.

If an outfield splash probably isn’t happening, the Santander pursuit suggests there could be money for a late-offseason move in another area. The Angels were the most active team within the opening weeks of the offseason. They acquired Soler, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Yusei Kikuchi before Thanksgiving. They haven’t made a single MLB free agent signing or trade of note since the Kikuchi pickup.

The Angels could still upgrade on the pitching staff. Rosenthal reported last week that the Halos were in contact with free agent relievers and could make multiple bullpen acquisitions. They could certainly accommodate someone like Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana or Andrew Heaney in the rotation. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number around $206MM, putting them about $35MM below next year’s luxury tax threshold.

Royals Made Three-Year Offer To Santander Before Jays Deal

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The Royals have been searching for a middle-of-the-order bat throughout the offseason. Anthony Santander was evidently one such target. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Kansas City made Santander a three-year, $66MM offer that included unspecified deferrals and would’ve allowed him to opt out after the second season.

Of course, Santander declined that proposal in favor of a five-year deal with the Blue Jays. That was initially reported as a $92.5MM contract, though extreme deferrals dramatically cut the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, Santander’s deal with Toronto was valued just below $68.6MM. He can opt out of that contract after three seasons, though the Jays could override that by preemptively exercising a 2030 club option.

The deferrals in Kansas City’s offer would have also trimmed its net present value to some extent. Without specifics, it’s impossible to know the exact NPV. However, it’s likely that K.C.’s offer would have had a stronger average annual value than the approximate $13.7MM mark on his contract with Toronto. Santander’s decision to go to Toronto could be a matter of timing more than anything else. Rosenthal writes that the switch-hitting slugger was already “committed” to the Jays once Kansas City made its strongest offer.

A few days after Santander came off the board, Jurickson Profar inked a three-year deal with the Braves. He received a $42MM guarantee. The Royals had been tied to Profar as far back as November. Rosenthal writes that the Royals were unwilling to go to three years on Profar, who turns 32 next month. Santander and Profar were the two big remaining unsigned outfielders.

Kansas City reallocated some of the money they were prepared to invest in the outfield to the bullpen. The Royals finalized a two-year, $22MM deal with back-end reliever Carlos Estévez this evening. That pushed their projected Opening Day payroll to roughly $132MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. RosterResource estimated last year’s season-ending payroll around $114MM, though Rosenthal writes that it was closer to $118MM. In either case, the Royals have added around $15-20MM to their books. They’ve also re-signed Michael Wacha for $51MM over three years, re-signed Michael Lorenzen on a $7MM pact, and swapped Brady Singer for Jonathan India.

The pitching staff looks excellent. K.C. had one of the best rotations in MLB last season. That should be the case again with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Wacha returning at the front end. Kyle Wright should be back from shoulder surgery, while they could get a full season out of Kris Bubic after he pitched in relief upon his return from Tommy John surgery. Estévez pairs with last year’s big deadline pickup, Lucas Erceg, at the back of what should be a stronger bullpen.

There’s less depth in the lineup. India will be an upgrade over Maikel Garcia at the top of the order. Kansas City hasn’t found the big bat they’d hoped to plug behind Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. They again have one of the weakest outfields on paper. MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe project as their starters in the corners, while Kyle Isbel will get the bulk of the center field work.

India and Michael Massey will divide time at second base and could each see some action in left field. Rosenthal writes that the Royals plan to give the righty-hitting Garcia reps in center field against left-handed pitching, essentially as a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Isbel. Garcia has never started a major league game in the outfield. He’s a plus athlete with good speed, though, so it’s not all that surprising that the Royals are open to letting him roam the outfield on occasion.

Anthony Santander’s Contract With Blue Jays Includes Nearly $62MM In Deferrals

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The Blue Jays finalized their five-year free agent deal with Anthony Santander this week. The deal came with a $92.5MM guarantee but was known to include heavy deferrals. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith first reported on Monday that MLB calculated the contract’s net present closer to $70MM.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported more specifics on the contract structure this afternoon. The NPV landed just under $68.6MM, which comes with an approximate $13.7MM annual competitive balance tax hit. The deal includes $61.75MM in deferred money. The specific layout is as follows:

  • $13.5MM signing bonus ($6.75MM deferred)
  • $13.5MM salary in 2025 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2026 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2027 ($10MM deferred)
  • $14.75MM salary in 2028 ($10MM deferred)
  • $12.75MM salary in 2029 ($10MM deferred)
  • $15MM club option for 2030; guaranteed a $5MM buyout, which would be completely deferred

Santander has an opt-out after the ’27 season. He’s owed $60MM over the first three years, so he’d be weighing whether to leave two years and $32.5MM ($25MM of which would be deferred) on the table. If he opts out, Toronto can override that by guaranteeing his 2030 salary at $17.5MM. That would also escalate Santander’s salaries for the 2028 and ’29 seasons to $17.25MM and $15.25MM, respectively. The maximum value is $110MM over six years — which would only be reached if Santander opts out and the Jays override it.

At the start of the offseason, the slugger was reportedly seeking five years and a nine-figure guarantee. He got the five years but came up well shy of $100MM from an NPV perspective. MLBTR predicted Santander for four years and $80MM at the beginning of the offseason. He beat that on raw money but did not get there in terms of net present value.

The Jays are into luxury tax territory. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’re close to the $261MM cutoff. Adding Santander likely comes with around a $3MM tax hit for the upcoming season. Toronto would be taxed at a 32% clip for spending between $261MM and $281MM.

MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
  • What does parity mean? (5:25)
  • Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
  • How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
  • What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
  • How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
  • The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
  • The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.

The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.

Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.

Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.

For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.

Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.

Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.

On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.

The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.

After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.

One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.

In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.

Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.

Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.

For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.

Blue Jays Remain In Talks With Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays have been tied to Anthony Santander as much as any team in recent weeks. While there’s still no agreement in place, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Jays’ talks with the free agent slugger “picked up” this morning.

Toronto is reeling from another near-miss on a top free agent. Their talks with Roki Sasaki were never linked to the possibility of a Santander move. Sasaki’s hard-capped bonus meant that his decision would not have impacted the Jays’ big league payroll. Still, his decision to sign with the Dodgers leaves the Jays without a headlining free agent acquisition this winter. Their big splash on the open market was the three-year, $33MM deal for reliever Jeff Hoffman. Toronto’s most significant move has come via trade, as they took on the remaining five years of the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Giménez is a defensive stalwart at second base, but he doesn’t provide a huge boost offensively. The Jays sorely need a power bat, in particular. They were in the bottom five of MLB in home runs last season. Their .389 team slugging percentage was 20th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30 home runs; no one else on the team had more than 19 longballs. They’re only returning three hitters who slugged over .400: Guerrero, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho. Clement is generally a light-hitting utilityman, while Varsho is expected to open the season on the injured list after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in September.

The switch-hitting Santander has four 20-homer seasons under his belt. He has connected on at least 28 longballs in each of the last three years, including a personal-high 44 last season. Santander hit .235/.308/.506 across 665 plate appearances in his walk year for the Orioles. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had more home runs a season ago.

Toronto has also been linked to Pete Alonso in recent days. Alonso is the only other unsigned free agent who rivals or tops Santander’s power. The latter is a cleaner positional fit. While Alonso would either need to serve as a designated hitter or force the Jays to move Guerrero to third base fairly frequently, Santander would slot into the corner outfield. The Jays don’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is expected to play right field, but he’s 35 years old and coming off a mediocre season (.220/.303/.371).

The Jays reportedly had an offer out to Santander a couple weeks ago. Clearly, that didn’t meet his asking price at the time. The Athletic reported last week that he may now be open to a shorter-term contract at higher annual values. Earlier in the offseason, Santander was reportedly seeking five years and a deal at or above $100MM.

Anthony Santander, Jack Flaherty Reportedly Open To Short-Term Offers

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As the offseason’s free agent market has developed and with Spring Training looming just over the horizon next month, a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.

Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal. Sammon also confirmed previous reports that indicated the camp of first baseman Pete Alonso had made an three-year offer to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, though it remains unclear if he’s open to similar short-term offers from other clubs at this point.

It’s a notable update to the market of all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty were reportedly looking for five-year deals that could have reached into the range of nine figures. Santander in particular reportedly has a contract offer on the table from the Blue Jays as of last week, though given the fact that he’s now open to exploring short-term deals it seems as though that offer may not have been one the switch-hitter was interested in accepting. It’s easy to imagine the possibility of getting a high-end free agent on a short-term deal opens up the market for these players, or perhaps convincing teams already connected to the players to become more serious about their pursuits.

As one example, Flaherty has previously been connected to the Cubs but there’s been some suggestion that Chicago (who signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out heavy deal just last winter) has reservations regarding the right-hander’s asking price. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been connected to both Flaherty and Santander but have remained opportunistic in free agency, locking down one-year deals with Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb to improve their roster without making long-term commitments. Either of these clubs could theoretically be enticed to step up their efforts if their target is now open to considering a short-term deal.

While shorter-term deals can be attractive to teams as a way to mitigate risk associated with a particular free agent, they can still come with complications. While the deals Snell and Chapman signed in San Francisco last winter were clear successes for both sides, with Snell dominating down the stretch in a Giants uniform before signing a lucrative deal in L.A. back in November while Chapman had a resurgent season and extended with the club long-term, not all deals of this variety work out quite so well. Montgomery’s deal with Arizona quickly turned out to be a disaster as the left-hander endured the worst season of his career, got demoted to the bullpen, and has been shopped as a potential salary dump by the Diamondbacks this winter. Bellinger, meanwhile, posted a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago that led the Cubs to dump his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month in order to create an opening in the lineup for the addition of a more impactful bat than Kyle Tucker.

Even with those potential downsides, it’s easy to see why clubs could prefer a short-term deal rather than one that puts them on the hook for a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs were still able to shed the vast majority of the money owed to Bellinger in trade even after a pedestrian 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous campaign. Swinging those deals would be far more difficult if either player were on lengthy deals with larger overall guarantees, even if the AAV of those deals would likely be lower.

For the players, this sort of approach comes with both pros and cons. There is of course risk involved that injury or poor performance leads to them hitting the market with less value than they had in their initial trip through free agency. In the case of Flaherty, who is currently unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer, taking a short-term deal comes with a bit of extra risk given that even a wildly successful season could end up not leading to the sort of lucrative long-term deal he’s hoping for given the fact that he could be tagged with a QO in a future offseason. For a player already tagged with a QO like Santander, however, signing a short-term deal and hitting free agency after another strong season could provide an even larger boost to his value by allowing him to re-enter free agency unencumbered in the future.

While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open the market up for these players to an extent, that shouldn’t be taken to mean that a massive shakeup is guaranteed. Those high annual salaries figure to be an obstacle for clubs in or on the cusp of luxury tax territory as well as those dealing with budget crunches. As one example, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that Alonso could look to seek a deal that offers an average annual value of $31.1MM in order to land the AAV record for first basemen. While that appears to be speculative on the part of the pair and they go on to suggest deferred money that would lower the net present value to be involved, even an AAV in the $25MM to $30MM range is the sort of figure that the majority of small-market clubs and even big spenders deep into luxury tax territory could be even less willing to stomach than a somewhat longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays have been surprisingly quiet in free agency thus far. Toronto has been tied to essentially every player of note, but their only signing was a two-year deal for middle reliever Yimi García. The Jays have pulled off one major trade acquisition, taking on the final five years and nearly $100MM on the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Based on the lack of free agent activity, the Jays seem to be one of the likeliest teams to land one of the few remaining stars on the open market. However, a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet casts some doubt on that possibility. Davidi writes that the Jays “are believed to be on the periphery” of the markets for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Toronto has reportedly made an offer to Anthony Santander, yet Davidi indicates that the Jays do not look like the current favorite to land the former Orioles slugger.

Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the remaining unsigned star-caliber hitters. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are viable regulars but clearly below the preceding trio in terms of offensive impact and earning potential. Giménez stabilizes second base but isn’t a huge threat at the plate. If the Jays come up empty on each of Bregman, Santander and Alonso, they’d be left with trade possibilities to spark a middling offense. Davidi writes that Toronto is actively exploring the trade market but does not identify any specific targets for the team.

[Related: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?]

The Jays were linked to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried before they inked significant deals earlier in the winter. They lost the bidding to the Mets on Soto. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks, at least partially because of geographic ties to Arizona. Davidi writes that the Jays were simply not comfortable with the eventual eight-year, $218MM deal that Fried secured from the Yankees. He indicates that Toronto never made an offer once they realized that the bidding was well beyond where they were willing to go.

Toronto narrowly dipped below the luxury tax threshold late last season. They have around $228MM in luxury tax commitments for this year, according to RosterResource. That puts them $13MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Any kind of free agent splash would push them into tax territory. Davidi indicates that while the Jays aren’t opposed to going into CBT range, they could decide to keep their tax number below $241MM if they don’t land any marquee targets.

An uncertain direction for the organization has hung over the offseason. Toronto has resisted a rebuild, but they’ve only made a few additions to a team that went 74-88. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are one season from free agency. There has never been much of an indication that they’ll extend Bichette. They’ve made an effort to keep Guerrero but seem far apart with the star first baseman.

Guerrero said last month that the team had offered him around $340MM. The four-time All-Star said that wasn’t close to his asking price and indicated that he’d end extension talks if there’s no deal in place by the beginning of Spring Training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported this week that Guerrero was looking for a deal of at least $450MM. Needless to say, that’s a big gap to bridge. That’d be particularly true if Guerrero holds firm to the Spring Training cutoff, though it’s not uncommon for players to continue negotiations past self-imposed deadlines if they feel progress is being made.

Davidi writes that the $340MM offer which the Jays made is believed to have predated Soto’s eye-popping $765MM contract. That may simply be an outlier, but it’s natural that Guerrero — arguably the top free agent in next year’s class — would aim high after Soto shattered all contractual precedents. Guerrero is set for what’ll be the highest salary for any arbitration-eligible player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at $29.6MM. Teams and players will exchange filing figures tomorrow afternoon. That could spur the Jays and Guerrero to work on a one-year settlement to avoid going to a hearing. That would not prevent them from continuing discussions on a long-term deal at a later date.

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