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Blue Jays Select Lazaro Estrada, Transfer Anthony Santander To 60-Day IL

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2:53 PM: The Blue Jays have made it official and selected Estrada’s contract from Triple-A Buffalo. To free up room on the 26 and 40-man rosters, the team optioned left-hander Justin Bruihl to Triple-A and transferred outfielder/DH Anthony Santander from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Santander will now not be eligible to return until late July.

7:10 AM: The Blue Jays are set to select the contract of right-hander Lazaro Estrada today, according to a report from Yordano Carmona of Pelota Cubana USA. Toronto’s 40-man roster is full, so a corresponding move will be necessary to make room for Estrada on both the active and 40-man rosters. Should Estrada make an appearance while on the roster, it would be his big league debut.

Estrada, 26, was born in La Habana, Cuba and made his pro debut with the Blue Jays back in 2018. After losing a season of development to 2020’s cancelled minor league season, Estrada managed just 39 1/3 innings of work total between 2021 and ’22 due to injuries. That slowed his ascent up the minor league ladder considerably, and he only cracked the Double-A level just last year. Despite that slow-going path to the majors, however, Estrada posted a 3.29 ERA across three levels of the minors last year and has followed that up by more or less holding his own at the Triple-A level this year. He has a 4.75 ERA through 15 starts, but his 24.8% strikeout rate is quite strong for a starter while his 7.8% walk rate is roughly average.

It’s not entirely clear what role Estrada will play now that he’s headed to the majors. The Blue Jays have a full rotation for the first time in a while, with Max Scherzer back from the injured list and southpaw Eric Lauer having more than earned a spot in the starting five after posting a 2.60 ERA on the season, including a 3.32 ERA in four starts since moving to the rotation last month. That duo is joined by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios. While each of those three is having somewhat middling seasons overall, none of them should be expected to move out of the rotation  barring a trip to the injured list.

That makes the most likely outcome for Estrada a move to the bullpen. The right-hander could serve as a solid complement to Lauer, who for all his effectiveness has capped out around 85 pitches this year. That could make having a multi-inning righty able to piggyback off of Lauer an attractive option, and Estrada would also be able to more generally provide length to a bullpen that has been leaned on heavily in recent days.

Ross Atkins Discusses Deadline Needs, Santander

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The Blue Jays have finally put the lengthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension saga behind them and are in the midst of a resurgent season with a 45-38 record that puts them in third place in a competitive AL East, just two games back of the Yankees for the division lead. In the Wild Card race, they’re in the second of three spots with a 2.5 game cushion over the Mariners. Despite all of that success in the standings, there’s plenty of cracks in their performance. That’s best represented by their (slightly) negative run differential of -3. That would suggest they should be around .500 rather than seven games over at this point, so there’s clearly work to be done on the roster.

Club GM Ross Atkins acknowledged as much to reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) earlier today, when he said that the Blue Jays “can obviously be better” before adding that the front office will “focus on that” ahead of the trade deadline. As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Atkins also added that the club has the financial support of ownership headed into the deadline and will have the ability to “flex that muscle” this summer. That suggests at least some willingness to take on salary in trade, which is notable for a club that’s already well into luxury tax territory this year. It was a somewhat roundabout way of confirming that his team figures to buy this trade season, but that didn’t stop Atkins from mentioning a pair of needs: pitching help and a right-handed bat.

That those would be needs on the team’s wish list is hardly surprising. The Blue Jays have a bottom-five rotation in the majors by both ERA and FIP this year, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon with Bowden Francis on the injured list and Max Scherzer still working through his nagging thumb issue. As noted by Matheson following Scherzer’s 71-pitch start earlier this evening, manager John Schneider told reporters after today’s game that Scherzer is battling through some “fatigue” in his thumb. That seems to be a day-to-day issue that could be managed without a trip to the shelf, but even if he can avoid the injured list Scherzer may be limited by his ailing thumb going forward.

That should make adding starting pitching a priority for the Jays. Potential front-of-the-rotation arms who could be available this summer include Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, but both players are going through down seasons and aren’t exactly surefire bets to put up elite numbers. More stable veterans like Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller could be attractive alternatives for a team like the Jays that’s in need of steady innings, but Atkins has suggested the club is more focused on adding depth to its pitching staff. Perhaps that means wading only into the shallow end of the starting market and focusing on relatively low-cost veteran rentals like Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen.

The club’s search for a right-handed bat, then, could take priority. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and DH Marcell Ozuna are perhaps the top righty hitters who could be available this summer, though neither Arizona nor Atlanta is guaranteed to sell. Even if they do, there’s some questions to be asked regarding either player’s fit in Toronto. George Springer is best served acting as a DH for the Jays, and Addison Barger has enjoyed something of a breakout season while splitting time between right field and third base for the club. If the Blue Jays are looking for a lower cost addition with more versatility, perhaps someone like Nationals infielder Amed Rosario or Red Sox infielder Romy Gonzalez could be of interest.

One other way to help the club hit against lefties would be a healthy and effective return from switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander. Santander is a career 112 wRC+ hitter against lefties who posted an even stronger 121 figure against them last year, but he’s been on the injured list for a month now due to inflammation in his left shoulder. Atkins revealed today (as relayed by Davidi) that Santander actually suffered a subluxation (partial separation) in his left shoulder after crashing into the outfield wall in Anaheim in early May. Atkins notes that Santander initially tried to play through the injury, but he hit just .122/.265/.195 between the end of the club’s series against the Angels and his placement on the IL three weeks later. MLB.com adds that Atkins is “optimistic” that Santander could resume hitting soon and adds that he may be able to return to the Jays in late July.

Blue Jays Place Anthony Santander On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Anthony Santander has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder inflammation. Fellow outfielder Alan Roden has been recalled as the corresponding move.

The Jays signed Santander to a five-year, $92.5MM deal this offseason. Heavy deferrals reportedly knock the net present value closer to $70MM but it was still the club’s biggest offseason splash as they looked to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 season.

They haven’t received much from that investment so far. Santander has six home runs and has drawn walks at an 11.5% clip but has a 26.3% strikeout rate and a .179/.273/.304 batting line. That amounts to a 67 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% worse than the league average hitter at the plate.

Santander’s .218 batting average on balls in play is really low but he’s also hitting the ball with less authority than before. He barreled up 11.7% of pitches last year but that mark is down to 4.6% this year. His current 40.8% hard hit rate would be his lowest since 2020. It’s possible that he hasn’t been fully healthy for a while. He was out of the lineup on May 10th with manager John Schneider describing his shoulder as “a little cranky”, per Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. He also missed some time due to hip soreness this month.

Ideally, a bit of rest will get him healthy and back on track. Last year, he hit 44 homers for the Orioles while only striking out 19.4% of the time and drawing walks at an 8.7% clip. That led to a .235/.308/.506 line and 129 wRC+. The Jays were surely hoping to get something resembling that level of production but haven’t gotten it yet.

The club has George Springer and Daulton Varsho in two outfield spots, while Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase and Myles Straw are also in the mix. Roden now comes up and joins that group, who will be jockeying for playing time in one of the outfield corners as well as the designated hitter slot. Roden cracked the Opening Day roster and hit just .178/.262/.260 in his first 84 big league plate appearances. He was then optioned down to Buffalo, where he has been mashing, putting up a .361/.446/.583 line for the Bisons.

Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images

Poll: Anthony Santander’s Slow Start

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After missing out on the top available free agent for the second consecutive offseason when they fell short in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Blue Jays remained in the hunt to find a slugger who could complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a hopefully resurgent Bo Bichette. Toronto had already brought Andres Gimenez into the fold as a glove-first regular, but his defensive-minded profile was never expected to be a huge boost to the lineup. After being connected to slugger Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman, and even a possible reunion with Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays finally landed Anthony Santander on a five-year, $92.5MM contract that comes with enough deferred money to lower the net present value of the deal to around $70MM.

The switch-hitting Santander swatted 44 home runs for Baltimore last year while hitting .235/.308/.506 with a 129 wRC+. That power-driven profile had proven to be fairly consistent for the slugger in recent years despite his generally low on-base numbers; Santander slashed .244/.317/.478 with a wRC+ of 124 since the start of the 2022 season. That was a long enough track record to give the Jays reasonable confidence in his ability to perform as a middle-of-the-order bat for them entering his age-30 season.

It’s a bet that hasn’t paid off so far. In Santander’s first 132 trips to the plate as a Blue Jay, he’s hit just .178/.258/.314 with a wRC+ of just 65. That’s 35% worse than league average and, in conjunction with his lackluster defense, has left him tied for the eighth-lowest fWAR total among qualified major leaguers. His overall production has been similar to that of another low on-base, defensively limited corner bat in Jake Burger, whom the Rangers just optioned to Triple-A last night due to his own struggles.

A look under the hood does suggest that Santander shouldn’t be expected to be quite this bad. While his strikeout rate has jumped four percentage points from last year, that 23.5% figure is not very different than the 23.2% he posted in 2023, when he turned in a perfectly respectable 119 wRC+. What’s more, Santander is actually walking more than ever this year. He’s garnered free passes at a solid 9.8% clip, more than two percentage points higher than his career norm. While his swinging-strike rate and contact rate are both down relative to last year, both numbers are more or less in line with his 2023 season. Between a strikeout rate within his ordinary range and the highest walk rate of his career, that .258 on-base mark seems likely to improve alongside his BABIP, which sits at an extremely low .202.

Where there is a more significant negative change in Santander’s numbers is the power department. A look at Santander’s batted-ball metrics reveals some troubling signs. His 5.7% barrel rate so far this year is his lowest since 2018, and his 39.8% hard-hit rate is also the lowest he’s posted since the shortened 2020 season. His exit velocities appear to still be more or less in line with where they have been in recent years, but Santander’s launch angle is down several points. That’s resulted in a ten-point drop in Santander’s fly ball rate and a seven-point jump in his ground-ball rate. Hitting the ball into the dirt is hardly a recipe for success for a power hitter like Santander, whose sprint speed is in the 23rd percentile of big league position players, per Statcast.

Even if Santander will need to make some changes in order to get back to being that consistent 30-to-40 homer threat he was over the past two years, the deflated BABIP and strong walk rate do suggest that he should see at least some improvements, leaving him with an xwOBA 35 points higher than his actual wOBA. Even that .293 expected figure would be Santander’s worst in a full season of plate appearances, however. It’s a troubling trend and one that the Blue Jays and Santander will need to work to correct in the coming weeks in order to get his season back on track.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Santander’s first season as a Blue Jay will shake out? Will he manage to get things back on track well enough to post numbers similar to the expectations he’s created in recent years, or will he fall short? Have your say in the poll below:

Angels Pursued Anthony Santander On Shorter-Term Deal

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The Angels showed interest in Anthony Santander on a potential three- or four-year deal, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s not clear precisely what they proposed, but it seems their reported interest in the outfielder was genuine enough to consider multi-year offers.

Santander ended up with the Blue Jays on a five-year pact. That was initially reported as a $92.5MM contract, though extreme deferrals dramatically cut the net present value. The MLB Players Association valued Santander’s deal with Toronto just below $68.6MM. He can opt out of that contract after three seasons, though the Jays could override that by preemptively exercising a 2030 club option.

It’s not known if Toronto was the only team willing to stretch to five years. Rosenthal reported last week that the Royals made a three-year offer that included an opt-out after the second season. That came with a $66MM guarantee on the surface, though it reportedly also included deferrals that would have dropped the NPV to some extent.

Assuming the Halos use Jorge Soler more or less as a full-time designated hitter, they’ve yet to do anything of note in the outfield. Late last season, they floated the idea of moving Mike Trout into a corner in an effort to keep him healthier. A free agent class led by Harrison Bader didn’t provide many options to step into center field. It has been similarly quiet on the trade front at the position. It looks like the Halos will stick with Trout in center for another season.

Taylor Ward was the subject of some trade speculation, but it seems he’ll return in left field. Santander would have been a major upgrade in right, where the Angels project to run it back with a Mickey Moniak/Jo Adell platoon. Neither one-time top prospect has been a consistent offensive threat in their major league careers. Angels right fielders hit .210/.287/.368 last season. Only the Royals got a lower on-base mark at the position, while their slugging percentage was fourth from the bottom.

At this stage of the offseason, the Angels are unlikely to find a significant outfield upgrade in free agency. There’d been some speculation that the Halos could make a push for Pete Alonso to play first base, allowing them to move Nolan Schanuel to the corner outfield. That’s theoretically still on the table as long as Alonso is unsigned, but it’d probably make for a very poor outfield defense. That’d also be true if the Angels signed Alonso as a designated hitter and put Soler back in right field.

If an outfield splash probably isn’t happening, the Santander pursuit suggests there could be money for a late-offseason move in another area. The Angels were the most active team within the opening weeks of the offseason. They acquired Soler, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Yusei Kikuchi before Thanksgiving. They haven’t made a single MLB free agent signing or trade of note since the Kikuchi pickup.

The Angels could still upgrade on the pitching staff. Rosenthal reported last week that the Halos were in contact with free agent relievers and could make multiple bullpen acquisitions. They could certainly accommodate someone like Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana or Andrew Heaney in the rotation. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number around $206MM, putting them about $35MM below next year’s luxury tax threshold.

Royals Made Three-Year Offer To Santander Before Jays Deal

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The Royals have been searching for a middle-of-the-order bat throughout the offseason. Anthony Santander was evidently one such target. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Kansas City made Santander a three-year, $66MM offer that included unspecified deferrals and would’ve allowed him to opt out after the second season.

Of course, Santander declined that proposal in favor of a five-year deal with the Blue Jays. That was initially reported as a $92.5MM contract, though extreme deferrals dramatically cut the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, Santander’s deal with Toronto was valued just below $68.6MM. He can opt out of that contract after three seasons, though the Jays could override that by preemptively exercising a 2030 club option.

The deferrals in Kansas City’s offer would have also trimmed its net present value to some extent. Without specifics, it’s impossible to know the exact NPV. However, it’s likely that K.C.’s offer would have had a stronger average annual value than the approximate $13.7MM mark on his contract with Toronto. Santander’s decision to go to Toronto could be a matter of timing more than anything else. Rosenthal writes that the switch-hitting slugger was already “committed” to the Jays once Kansas City made its strongest offer.

A few days after Santander came off the board, Jurickson Profar inked a three-year deal with the Braves. He received a $42MM guarantee. The Royals had been tied to Profar as far back as November. Rosenthal writes that the Royals were unwilling to go to three years on Profar, who turns 32 next month. Santander and Profar were the two big remaining unsigned outfielders.

Kansas City reallocated some of the money they were prepared to invest in the outfield to the bullpen. The Royals finalized a two-year, $22MM deal with back-end reliever Carlos Estévez this evening. That pushed their projected Opening Day payroll to roughly $132MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. RosterResource estimated last year’s season-ending payroll around $114MM, though Rosenthal writes that it was closer to $118MM. In either case, the Royals have added around $15-20MM to their books. They’ve also re-signed Michael Wacha for $51MM over three years, re-signed Michael Lorenzen on a $7MM pact, and swapped Brady Singer for Jonathan India.

The pitching staff looks excellent. K.C. had one of the best rotations in MLB last season. That should be the case again with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Wacha returning at the front end. Kyle Wright should be back from shoulder surgery, while they could get a full season out of Kris Bubic after he pitched in relief upon his return from Tommy John surgery. Estévez pairs with last year’s big deadline pickup, Lucas Erceg, at the back of what should be a stronger bullpen.

There’s less depth in the lineup. India will be an upgrade over Maikel Garcia at the top of the order. Kansas City hasn’t found the big bat they’d hoped to plug behind Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. They again have one of the weakest outfields on paper. MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe project as their starters in the corners, while Kyle Isbel will get the bulk of the center field work.

India and Michael Massey will divide time at second base and could each see some action in left field. Rosenthal writes that the Royals plan to give the righty-hitting Garcia reps in center field against left-handed pitching, essentially as a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Isbel. Garcia has never started a major league game in the outfield. He’s a plus athlete with good speed, though, so it’s not all that surprising that the Royals are open to letting him roam the outfield on occasion.

Anthony Santander’s Contract With Blue Jays Includes Nearly $62MM In Deferrals

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The Blue Jays finalized their five-year free agent deal with Anthony Santander this week. The deal came with a $92.5MM guarantee but was known to include heavy deferrals. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith first reported on Monday that MLB calculated the contract’s net present closer to $70MM.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported more specifics on the contract structure this afternoon. The NPV landed just under $68.6MM, which comes with an approximate $13.7MM annual competitive balance tax hit. The deal includes $61.75MM in deferred money. The specific layout is as follows:

  • $13.5MM signing bonus ($6.75MM deferred)
  • $13.5MM salary in 2025 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2026 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2027 ($10MM deferred)
  • $14.75MM salary in 2028 ($10MM deferred)
  • $12.75MM salary in 2029 ($10MM deferred)
  • $15MM club option for 2030; guaranteed a $5MM buyout, which would be completely deferred

Santander has an opt-out after the ’27 season. He’s owed $60MM over the first three years, so he’d be weighing whether to leave two years and $32.5MM ($25MM of which would be deferred) on the table. If he opts out, Toronto can override that by guaranteeing his 2030 salary at $17.5MM. That would also escalate Santander’s salaries for the 2028 and ’29 seasons to $17.25MM and $15.25MM, respectively. The maximum value is $110MM over six years — which would only be reached if Santander opts out and the Jays override it.

At the start of the offseason, the slugger was reportedly seeking five years and a nine-figure guarantee. He got the five years but came up well shy of $100MM from an NPV perspective. MLBTR predicted Santander for four years and $80MM at the beginning of the offseason. He beat that on raw money but did not get there in terms of net present value.

The Jays are into luxury tax territory. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’re close to the $261MM cutoff. Adding Santander likely comes with around a $3MM tax hit for the upcoming season. Toronto would be taxed at a 32% clip for spending between $261MM and $281MM.

MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
  • What does parity mean? (5:25)
  • Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
  • How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
  • What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
  • How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
  • The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
  • The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.

The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.

Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.

Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.

For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.

Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.

Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.

On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.

The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.

After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.

One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.

In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.

Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.

Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.

For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.

Blue Jays Remain In Talks With Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays have been tied to Anthony Santander as much as any team in recent weeks. While there’s still no agreement in place, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Jays’ talks with the free agent slugger “picked up” this morning.

Toronto is reeling from another near-miss on a top free agent. Their talks with Roki Sasaki were never linked to the possibility of a Santander move. Sasaki’s hard-capped bonus meant that his decision would not have impacted the Jays’ big league payroll. Still, his decision to sign with the Dodgers leaves the Jays without a headlining free agent acquisition this winter. Their big splash on the open market was the three-year, $33MM deal for reliever Jeff Hoffman. Toronto’s most significant move has come via trade, as they took on the remaining five years of the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Giménez is a defensive stalwart at second base, but he doesn’t provide a huge boost offensively. The Jays sorely need a power bat, in particular. They were in the bottom five of MLB in home runs last season. Their .389 team slugging percentage was 20th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30 home runs; no one else on the team had more than 19 longballs. They’re only returning three hitters who slugged over .400: Guerrero, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho. Clement is generally a light-hitting utilityman, while Varsho is expected to open the season on the injured list after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in September.

The switch-hitting Santander has four 20-homer seasons under his belt. He has connected on at least 28 longballs in each of the last three years, including a personal-high 44 last season. Santander hit .235/.308/.506 across 665 plate appearances in his walk year for the Orioles. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had more home runs a season ago.

Toronto has also been linked to Pete Alonso in recent days. Alonso is the only other unsigned free agent who rivals or tops Santander’s power. The latter is a cleaner positional fit. While Alonso would either need to serve as a designated hitter or force the Jays to move Guerrero to third base fairly frequently, Santander would slot into the corner outfield. The Jays don’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is expected to play right field, but he’s 35 years old and coming off a mediocre season (.220/.303/.371).

The Jays reportedly had an offer out to Santander a couple weeks ago. Clearly, that didn’t meet his asking price at the time. The Athletic reported last week that he may now be open to a shorter-term contract at higher annual values. Earlier in the offseason, Santander was reportedly seeking five years and a deal at or above $100MM.

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