At last year’s trade deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a trade that largely flew under the radar at the time but is now proving to be fairly significant. The Fish sent Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Trades of star players like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines at the time, while other notable players like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha also changed teams. Even within Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered far more attention than the Weathers deal, and that was fairly understandable back then. Burger and Bell immediately joined the big league club and helped them reach the playoffs, their first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years.
Cooper has been a decent hitter at times but has also been frequently hurt and was an impending free agent at the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had only recently converted to pitching after spending his earlier professional seasons as a first baseman and outfielder.
Weathers had been a big name a few years prior. The former No. 7 overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 84 prospect in the league going into 2021, but Weathers hadn’t been impressing prior to the deal. He had thrown 143 big league innings for the Padres before becoming a Marlin, allowing 5.73 earned runs per nine frames.
Even in the minors, Weathers wasn’t exactly mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That club plays in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but Weathers had subpar strikeout and walk rates of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters faced but was still giving out walks at an ugly 13.5% rate. The Padres called him up for 44 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but he had a 6.25 ERA in that time, striking out just 14.8% of opponents. The fact that the Padres were willing to let him go for a pretty limited package suggests that they considered his stock way down relative to when he was a top-10 pick and top-100 prospect.
Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this year. Even with Sandy Alcántara undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Miami’s rotation mix projected to include Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the club another potential starter. Since Weathers still has an option year left, it seemed like he would have to start 2024 in the minors and earn his way into a big league job.
That’s not the way things have played out thus far. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all started the season on the injured list due to injuries, with Pérez ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery. Luzardo and Puk eventually hit the IL during the season, with the latter moved back to a relief role when the starting experiment failed. Meyer made three good starts but was optioned to the minors so the club could monitor his workload as he ramps back up from 2022 Tommy John surgery.
Amid all of that, Weathers has been the club’s best and most consistent starter this year. He has taken the ball 12 times and logged 68 2/3 innings, while no one else has topped 57. On top of the quantity, Weathers has also provided quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate is close to average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his 51.5% ground ball rate is very good.
Manager Skip Schumaker recently appeared on MLB Network Radio and discussed the breakout from Weathers (X link, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up close earlier in his career, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres through the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors quickly due to his fastball but that hitters started to adjust. That prompted Weathers to spend the most recent offseason working to improve the other pitches in his arsenal, which seems to be paying off so far this year.
“He bought a TrackMan and different things and created kind of his own pitching lab back home,” Schumaker said, “and figured out how to spin the ball better and really manipulate the changeup into a way where he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he needed as well to get swing-and-miss.”
Weathers threw his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time in each of his first three big league seasons, according to Statcast, but that number is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but also throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% rate, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as well. Opponents are hitting .174 against the changeup with a .349 slugging percentage, while those numbers are just .132 and .211 against the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff rate and 36.8% hard hit rate, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit hard (95 mph or greater) just 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.
This is still a small sample size of just 12 starts, but Weathers was previously a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so quickly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are still in college or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s still only 24 years old despite this technically being his fourth season in the majors.
Perhaps the Marlins have found a solid piece for their rotation from that small trade last year, which would be significant for them. Weathers came into this season with one year and 66 days of major league service time. That means he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and can be controlled through 2028.
Though they once seemed to be overloaded with starting pitching options, the group has been thinned out recently. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder in recent years. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgery this year. Well-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL repair (not a full Tommy John surgery) last summer and has yet to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been consistently hobbled by shoulder injuries. And, Miami’s poor performance this year could lead to further selling, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative possibilities.
Even if those arms do end up being traded — Luzardo, in particular, seems likely — it’s possible to imagine the Marlins having a strong rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of those names controllable through at least 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster could bring in further rotation candidates as well. Plans rarely go that smoothly, as injuries and changes in performance will undoubtedly occur, but the continued evolution of Weathers is a huge bright spot during a season that’s otherwise been bleak in Miami.
Preller got hosed yet again
It does feel like he makes a lot of rough trades. Even good ones hurt him. For example, Justin Upton from the Braves for Max Fried and a handful of other prospects the Braves flipped to build the team they have today. Upton gave them a great year but lord I bet y’all would trade that back to have max fried. Then y’all got Upton’s brothers bad contract to get kimbrel. But you still gave up a guy that put some solid mlb innings for us in Wisler and gave us a competitive A 1st round pick which we used to get Mike Soroka. He ended up dang near winning a cy young for us and we flipped him for a solid bullpen arm. I’m not saying yall lost that trade but lord, 1 good year of Kimbrel is all u got and ate a lot of money with it. Merely showing that even the good trades came at a steeper cost than other trades seem to ultimately cost
The CBA pick the Padres gave the Braves for Kimbrel turned into Austin Riley not Mike Soroka. But that actually makes it worse rather than better.
Kim Ng strikes again! What horrible ownership for letting her go!
It looks even worse since it came out that the worst move during her tenure, the Avi Garcia signing, is reported to have been made pretty much solely due to the fact that Jeter wanted him and negotiated with him. They fumbled that bag horribly.
This is why they let ivy leaguers run clubs now and not ballplayers
People are still defending her tenure?
@Big Smoke
These posters that still defend Kim Ng are just determined to show everyone how very little they know about the Marlins and how much they basically parrot so-called journalists who don’t cover the team, but are quick to write false narratives to pretend they do.
See, us actual Marlins fans know how Kim Ng really performed. Has anyone seen one single Marlins fan criticize her departure? Nope. It’s been a unanimousy supported move where all of us are glad she’s gone – and this from both male and female Marlins fans. That says enough. Let the circus clowns keep making their ridicluous posts to defend her. We know they won’t even back it up when we challenge them to discuss all of her failed moves.
@bjhaas1977
Yes, the team was so stupid for letting the person who signed Avi Garcia; Jean Segura; Johnny Cueto; released Harold Ramirez so she could hold onto Lewis Brinson, Magnueris Sierra and Monte Harrison; signed Anthony Bass to be the Closer; couldn’t draft one single successful pick; went to sleep from the 2022 trade deadline all the way until weeks before pitchers and catchers had to report for 2023; made great moves like holding onto Jesus Aguilar instead of trading him for the offers she had just so she could release him weeks later for nothing; traded for Joey Wendle when he was past his prime; traded for Jacob Stallings when he was done. Shall I go on?
Yeah, Marlins did such a stupid thing. Guys like you who persist on showing the logic about this do a great job at displaying your vast knowledge and awareness of the Marlins.
Thank you for posting! Us Marlins fans will enjoy reading your words of wisdom over and over and over again!
Drafted out of high school, Weathers wasn’t helped by losing his 2nd developmental (minor league) season to the Covid shutdown.
Marlins seem to have a very good pitching lab that turns out good quality pitchers. They need to find the team that is turning out hitters and exchange notes.
A lot of it is the park they play in. It’s a pitchers park all the way. The Marlins have good pitchers but it makes them look better than they actually are.
@Blackpink in the area
What’s that have to do with developing high-average contact hitters who put the ball in play and score consistently? That’s what we need more than anything.
Sure that’s why a guy like Arraez had success there. It’s a good park for doubles and triples but certainly not home runs. Seems like the Marlins have focused on pitching more with their early draft picks the last few years. And when they have taken hitters they haven’t panned out like Watson and Berry.
Yeah, Kim Ng’s draft picks of Watson and Berry haven’t looked so hot.
Definitely saw him as a possible flip candidate, and they’ve managed to do what they needed to gain some value. A good opportunity to get talent into the organization, if you can take advantage of it for once
Look at his ERA after 12 starts in 2021. Look at his ERA after 5 starts last season. Not sure that this is something that will stand up to a full season.
His peripherals like SO% and BB% are close the where they were at those points in those seasons. His BABip is 35 points below his average. His hard hit ball% and EV is higher than at any point in his career. His GB% is 8% higher than his career average. His barrel rate is right on his career averages.
Like he did in those seasons before this year, I believe Weathers will fade as the season goes on. He is a good kid, so I hope for his sake that the regression is not severe.
He has a 3-5 record. That’s not good.
Yes, because pitchers control run support.
Yes, they also control the bullpen holding leads for games they should’ve won too.
I forgot my /S
Legit don’t think I’ve seen someone cite SP W-L record in over a decade. It doesn’t tell you anything about the quality of a pitcher.
I enjoyed this read. Do you think Weathers will be targeted at the deadline?
Targeted, yes. Dealt? No way.
TBH, the Weathers trade chafes me more than a blockbuster like the Soto deal. Absolutely wild to trade a pitcher with five years of control left for a lefty bench bat. Who knows if the changes stick, he stays healthy, or even if he would’ve made these adjustments without the trade, but the process felt unsound. Unlike Stults who just decided to throw faster after arriving in Milwaukee, this seems more likely to stick going forward. Oh well, good luck to him.
Um, Garrett Cooper is a righty bat. He still sucks, but he sucks from the right-handed side of the plate.
Thanks, mixed up with Ji-Man Choi.
@Big Smoke
These posters that still defend Kim Ng are just determined to show everyone how very little they know about the Marlins and how much they basically parrot so-called journalists who don’t cover the team, but are quick to write false narratives to pretend they do.
See, us actual Marlins fans know how Kim Ng really performed. Has anyone seen one single Marlins fan criticize her departure? Nope. It’s been a unanimousy supported move where all of us are glad she’s gone – and this from both male and female Marlins fans. That says enough. Let the circus clowns keep making their ridicluous posts to defend her. We know they won’t even back it up when we challenge them to discuss all of her failed moves.
I’m just trying to get some semblance of balance across. While Jeter was with the Marlins, he was effectively Head of Baseball Operations. He jettisoned Michael Hill because he needed more than a Yes man, but he seemed to lean more heavily on his crony than Ng.
Ng definitely did better after Jeter, when she actually was in charge of Baseball. The last thing she did before leaving was jettison DJ Svilhuk, the head of Scouting who couldn’t pick a hitter.
I’m not saying she was wonderful, but she doesn’t rate the level of bile and hatred you want to heap on her.
Here’s a fact. Jeter left before the 2022 season. See what Kim Ng did since then…the whole body of work.
Hmmm…she talked a big game leading to the 2022 trade deadline, and basically did nothing.
She refused to trade Jesus Aguilar at the 2022 trade deadline for the offers she received, but then released him weeks later for nothing when she realized she had too many 1Bs when she needed to see what a young 1B could do.
She then did nothing in teh Wonter Meetings after talking a big game…only making sure to do her self-promo stuff and cast the very difficult Hall of Fame vote for Fred McGriff which was a tough call considering his unanimous choice. Clearly understandable that she had no time to do her job during that time.
Then she signed Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto.
And let’s not forget how she always refused to give any of the young arms a shot at the Closer role as she always wanted to hand that role to guys that proved they were nothing but career middle relievers…like Tanner Scott, Dylan Floro, etc. etc. after her effort to fix the bullpen when she arrived led to signing Anthony Bass…a guy she had to dump off at the 2022 trade deadline for garbage.
So, she did better without Jeter to where her criticism is not warranted you say? Did you even know about these moves I mention, or are you just parroting what you heard from sources that don’t even cover the Marlins?
To be fair, she had a good 2023 trade deadline and made a good mopve in getting Arraez. But let’s not pretend that she was not making dumb moves after Jeter was gone. She still was. Let her run your team and see how much you like her work. I’ll give you 3 months before you start calling for her head.
And for the record, I gave Ng benefit of the doubt when she first arrived because I was thrilled to be rid of Mike Hill. But she failed…period. She’s not a good GM. Maybe the last efforts showed she learned something, but she didn’t stick around to show that. We’ll see how she does on her next gig. I’m pretty sure it will be some of the same hit-or-miss moves she had here.
I remember the day we got rid of Garrett Cooper. It was a beautiful day that was long overdue by at least a couple of years. I didn’t care if we got a single, useless, worn and torn sock lost in a dryer that didn’t match anything for Cooper. It was a great day. How awesome it was that we also got a good piece for Cooper? It’s awesome! It’s like someone takes away your trash bin, and pays you for the honor to do so…with a winning lottery ticket.
Thank you Mr. Preller. Thank you very much!
I’m hoping preller gets fired so the angels can sign him as gm. Atleast he seems to draft well, and maybe arte will veto his trades
So how much money is Weathers’ agent giving MLBTR to write this puff piece and help him get a better salary in arbitration?
There is no transaction news or rumor here. He is not being discussed as an extension or trade candidate. It’s just some stats regurgitated from publicly available sites to say “hey, my guy is good, let me try and get him an extension or more arb money.”
Just like the recent infusion of ad posts here, a shameless attempt to get dough. And yet another weak attempt by MLBTR to be like Fangraphs.
Stay in your line: you’re a transactions site, not a stats site. There is nothing novel about this article: “ohhhh so-and-so is good, here are some stats I found that anyone would see if they check is page on Statcast.”
Also, there should be no comma after “and” when it is used to begin the sentence.