The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.
The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.
The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.
Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.
Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.
Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.
Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.
That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.
If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.
Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.
That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.
Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.
Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.
Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.
One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.
Jesse Winker to the Braves
Why? Let Kelenic continue to develop..
Has nothing to do with Kelenic. You even follow the team?
Jer Bear is locked in CF for you guys ROS, should be anyway.
Wink? Sometimes I swear, my 15 year old nephew plays a better OF than him
He will be a hot commodity.
None of these dudes are likely to return much. Should be able to trade most of them for flyer prospects
Thomas and finnegan are definitely worth something
To think, just 5 yrs ago they won the World Series.
Since then:
2020 (covid year) 26-34
2021 65-87
2022 55-107
2023 71-91
The economics of baseball in a nutshell.
Or normal cycles for the middling teams? (i.e., not the Yanks, Dodgers, Cards, etc.)
If Trent Grisham does not make an error, the Nats never even get out of the wild card! It’s not like they were a dominant force–they were a wildcard that relied upon another team’s mistakes to move on. Yes, they won it fair and square that year–but they were not set up for a dynasty. Throw in some injuries?
Teams like the Rays deal with these “economics” year in and year out, and find a way; teams like the Mets spend a ton each year…yet have success maybe once every decade. Stop with all the predeterminism, all the catastrophism, it’s a game that has ups and downs, and almost anything can happen.
They could have been set up for a dynasty. There was no reason to think Strasburg was done or that Corbin would fall apart. They had Soto and Robles was supposed to be good. Things fell apart, but I don’t think that was predictable in 2019.
Bill definitely. If anything I’d say that the Nats showed unusually good analysis and clear-eyed evaluation of their own org by pivoting to a rebuild at the point they did and we are starting to see some good reasons to believe they have made some good decisions about they’re plan for the team.
I think 2019 was destined to the year they fall apart. The NATS could’ve had a dynasty 2012-2019 but just got unlucky. They had the top tier 1-2 SPs and all stars calibre players in almost every position. Injuries plagued them several times as well. That was not a “wildcard that relied upon another team’s mistakes to move on”. The NATS were a WS calibre team prior to 2019, not dominant, but very competitive. from 2012-2019, Dodgers Cubs and Astros, They all “relied upon another team’s mistakes to move on”, if one must say so.
Lane Thomas is a great fit to return to the Cardinals, who cant hit LHP with Goldy and Arenado scuffling
But i cant see it happening, they would have to forget how bad he was for them a couple years ago
They just won 3 of 4, scoring 21 runs while facing four straight starting lefties.
Theres a thing called small sample size.
There’s also a thing called returning to the norm. Goldschmidt and Arenado have started hitting recently. Age related decline is expected. Both of them dropping off a cliff is not expected. Contreras also returned fairly recently
I have more confidence in Goldy, though he keeps missing middle-middle FBs.
Arenado has lost all power. Hes cromulent but there is no reason to believe he will regain it.
Arenado is not returning to the norm with 8th percentile barrels and hard hit rate in addition to quickly deteriorating bat speed. He might hit for average again, but the power seems to be gone unless he’s secretly playing through an upper body injury.
Recently? Goldschmidt has been hitting well for nearly 2 months now.
Goldy has 0.2 fWAR and a projection of 1.2fWAR.
That isn’t hitting well, its being less of a complete black hole. I love Goldy but he is not remotely hitting well.
Ease. Thomas is gonna come back cheap.
The Cardinals already have a 4th OF who can only hit lefties with Dylan Carlson. Meanwhile, Nootbaar just came back, and Edman is on a rehab assignment. Why would they need Thomas?
Meanwhile, Goldschmidt has hit just fine since the middle of May, Arenado is still hitting decently despite his lack of power, and they also have Contreras, Winn, (as I mentioned) Carlson, and soon Edman and Herrera to clobber the lefties.
You are correct, they don’t need him. However I would take a flyer on Corbin as a 5th starter if they want to eat his salary.
Why would they do that when hes no better than Pallante?
They need RH OF help. Bold to rely on Carlson (hitting like he is holding a stick of celery) and Edman (wrists notoriously slow and unpredictable recovery.)
Goldy should be cromulent (though he misses middle-middle FBs in a way he never did) and Arenado is getting by with no power at all, but shouldn’t hit higher than 6.
They have been weak against LH pitching all year, especially in the OF where Walkers regression and Edmans absence have hit them hard.
Why would anyone want Gallo?
Only beer league teams at this point.
The Nationals would probably have to attach a prospect just to move Gallo in a trade, which they wouldn’t do. But yeah, he is in no way a trade chip.
Only question about Gallo is whether the Nats hang onto him to play out the string after they trade their other vets. But most likely they DFA Gallo anyway to free up another spot for the youth movement.
No reason anyone really should but I’d kind of love to see Gallo land in Colorado at some point. The dingers may be rare but they would be spectacular lol. Also just kind of feels like a Montfort move for his next “we can totally compete you guyz!!” tragic farce of a roster.
Count on the Nats once again shouting themselves in the foot by not trading Thomas.
He was a great find, but outside assessors are correct that he’s a platoon guy on a first-division team.
SO… Youre downplaying Thomas’ value while blaming the Nats for not trading him for nothing.. yet?
I think TheFuzzofKing means the Nats should’ve traded Thomas last year when his value was highest and he looked like he could be more than just a short-side platoon hitter.
They should trade him for literally anything before they get literally nothing after he’s a free agent.
This is easy.
And like the guy before said, they’d have gotten something better for him last year. He hasn’t gotten better.
I guess it was a easy decision to make. Nats had a OF surplus, Thomas played well but not controllable after 2025. Should”ve pulled the trigger last year. But he has never been valued high by other teams, so it is not like that holding onto him for 1 more year costs a lot.
GODDAMN FOOT!! -The Nats
Surprised that Jake Irvin isn’t on this list
Nats expect to contend for a WC next year.. Why are the trading their best pitcher with 5 years of control?
Thank you Wadz. Didn’t know he had 5 years of control. But now I’m even more surprised that he’s not on that list next to James Wood and CJ Abrams.
emmm. Because Irvin has not established himself to continue that performance.
Er. Irvin is the linchpin of the Nats suddenly youthful and talented starting pitching staff. They’d be insane to deal Irvin, Gore, Parker and probably Herz. Rizzo, above all else, knows the value of good starting pitchers.
What do we think of Lane Thomas and his godawful season? I haven’t followed him at all this year. Mechanics? Injury? I know he’s super talented
Not sure what you’re looking at. Thomas was injured for a while but he’s healthy now and performing pretty close to his career averages, with somewhat deeper splits than usual – terrible against RHPs and destroying LHPs.
Slow start and then an injury. Seems to be rounding into shape.
He’s not super talented. That’s the crux of it. He’s a solid starter on a second division team or a 4th outfielder on a contender.
Some guys can only hit lefties and it is what it is
Don’t look, Brian Cashman, and don’t touch. No….not even “struggling” slugger Joey Gallo, a guy you’ve already had for one bout of OPS+76. Or someone else who is injured, but you think will make a magical recovery–it won’t happen.. Think of this as an Indiana Jones moment “Don’t look Marion!”
Lol there’s no way Gallo is ever coming back but well played. Wouldn’t hate the idea of taking a flyer on winker if the acquisition cost is reasonable. His low cost makes him disposable if need be. And imo the yanks probably should at least kick the tires on the nats’ relief arms.
Why? They’re only 5.5 out of the wild card spot.
Because they arent ready yet.. and they arent jumping 6 teams for one WC slot…..
@Wadz
Don’t be so negative. Let’s go, Nationals!
Because they will be really freaking good in 2 – 3 years… and if they can get some more prospect for the crap they want to sell… they should do it.
@skywalkr2
Which team is taking crap from them?
Skywalker and wadz, both on the money here. It’s not worth squandering any piece that can contribute for the longer term future for a low probability run at the 3rd wild card spot for the nats rn. Will be interesting to see hoe they play it at the deadline and the off-season with that corbin money coming off the books soon.
@HatlessPete
I thought the whole point of expanding playoffs so every team makes it is to encourage more races and more trades and action. Now you’re telling me we should have already given up on a team that is 5.5 games away from a playoff spot? Wow! No wonder baseball is in such a mess.
That is the 2nd time you have omitted the amount of teams they have to jump.
As if waving it off.
It is not the same as in the past. 5.5 behind in their own division can move quickly. Not so when compared to all the other teams. Five teams have to do worse. And many teams below have to stay the same or worse.
Sigh…not all teams in spitting distance of a wild card spot are in equivalent positions when it comes to their competitive window, farm system, payroll picture and longer term organizational goals and plans. And its far from guaranteed that the nats will still be this close in the standings when the market truly heats up in a couple weeks. One of the clear trends since playoff expansion has been borderline competitive teams taking hybrid buy-sell approaches at the deadline. Nothing about the nats’ track record during this rebuild suggests that they are going to look for true rental players to make a quixotic and shortsighted run at sneaking into a wc spot. However it is possible that they try to convert their short term assets into young, controllable mlb pieces and/or near mlb ready prospects. You really do love to ride a single data point into the ground and wildly over-generalize I notice lol.
I’m saddened that both you are so negative.
I’m saddened that you struggle to see the bigger picture. It looks to me as if everyone you’re arguing with is actually quite positive on the nationals’ longterm competitive outlook, possibly as soon as next season. I’m quite high on their future potential with the young guys who are currently establishing themselves as quality big leaguers and the talent they have coming up in their system, not to mention that they have positioned themselves to make some impactful free agent/external additions when the time is right.
@HatlessPete
It doesn’t always pan out. Look at the WSox and Jays. Plus, having the potential to go to the playoffs is beneficial to any team.
Ok? Literally any approach can fail to pan out in individual cases. If you stop and think about it, I’m sure you could remember some teams that have gone all in on a playoff push and failed. Also the jays have made the playoffs and fielded some quality teams in the recent past so it seems a bit excessive to call their most recent window and build a full on failure. Short of what some folks hoped for or expected, sure, but not a disaster either. That’s baseball, Suzyn.
Corbin’s money isn’t completely off the books. Like many other ex-Nats he’s owed $10 million in deferred money next year.
The settlement reached with Strasburg didn’t reduce what the Nats owe him overall. The Nats couldn’t obtain insurance on that deal, so they’re on the hook for every dollar. The terms of the settlement haven’t leaked, but they could be on the hook for up to $35 million a year until 2727. From 27-29, they originally would have owed him $25 million a year in deferred money.
Nats ownership tried to change the terms of the contract last season, which is why he didn’t retire last year. Mark Lerner and the rest of the Lerner family aren’t going to spend like Ted did. I will be stunned if the Nats sign a high dollar free agent before the 2025 season. Especially because they need to lock up Abrams.
NH those are fair points. The net 25 mill coming off for corbin isn’t exactly chump change either though. And apart from dead and deferred money what other significant payroll commitments do they have? I didn’t say that they were necessarily going to ramp up spending on free agents in the 2025 off-season. I was trying to say they are positioned to add in the future as the rebuild hopefully continues to progress if they establish a strong young core. Also, how can we be sure mark Lerner isn’t going to spend if the team is building momentum , fan interest and competing? Don’t think we’ve seen how he behaves in that situation before. One things for sure, the nats are one of the most interesting organizations to track right now.
The NATS have been lucky to once be close to .500. They lost the series against the WC teams like SD STL by a large margin. This is not the year. Some investment in 2025-26 will likely bring back a strong WC berth.
But they don’t have 8 overpaid injured boras clients on the roster so the Gnats ain’t Winning.
Because the only thing Corbin beats up is the Gatorade despenser in the dugout after get pulled after giving up 9 runs in the first.
Same thing from Lynn last year. I think Corbin could be great as a 5th starter in St Louis.
I think the other NL Central contenders think Corbin would be a great fit there too…
Who’s Trevor Bauer?
If only Trevor jerked off to himself as much as you clowns do to him. He might still be in MLB.
FWIW I think he DOES.
Lol true. If there’s one thing bauer has truly and consistently excelled at it has been a masturbatory and grandiose sense of self-regard
We need more than 1 OF and Jesse is on a one one year deal. Really we should aim for Kane Thomas
Mariners could use an OF who can platoon with raley in RF. Thomas would be a nice addition
Os fans when they think Norby will get them an SP2: 🙂
Os fans when Norby+ gets them Lane Thomas and Hunter Harvey: :0
These teams line up well for a deal. Especially once the Os move Cowser or Kjerstad for an SP.
The last time the Orioles made a trade with the Nationals they were still called the Expos and the trade involved a player named Tim Raines.
Os new owner has ties to the DC area.. Now that Angelos is gone I dont see any no trade mandates between them
The MASN war is over, baby, let it go.
Any GM that trades for Corbin or Gallo should be summarily fired.
Gallo, yes. Corbin? As a cheap 5th starter? He has value.
5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP might have value to a bottom feeder, but not to any team with playoff hopes
MKE has playoff hopes. And if Washington eats his contract he’s exactly the kind of guy they’d go for.
The heading should have read:
The Nationals opened the season as sellers haha.
Remember when the nationals decided to let harper walk and resign strasburg to a massive extension?? When bryce is a once in 50 year talent and they chose stras over him??? Pepperidge Farms remembers. Set the franchise back 5 years.
Rendon actually.
So the Nats are like the neighbor that is having a yard sale and you head over because you know they have some decent stuff only to find they are only selling old shoes and broken toys…..
Winker seems like a perfect platoon partner for Duvall in ATL. First they’ll need to kick Rosario to the curb…Harris should be back soon.
IIRC Winker started his career as Duvall’s platoon partner in Cincinnati, up until Duvall got traded to Atlanta.
If they spend a little this off-season they’ll be solid contenders next year. Lots of talent.
Gallo & Corbin to Yankees for two a prospects. Williams to the Braves.
Unfortunately, I doubt Williams is traded. He has the same type of forearm flexor strain Josiah Gray first sustained in April. Gray was on the IL two months. Gray’s been out again since early July with the same injury.
There’s no indication Williams is close to making a rehab start, much less rejoining the big club. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t pitch for another month. Because he’s a free agent, I seriously doubt any team would take a chance he’s seriously injured and never pitches for them, even if all they did was send a lottery ticket type prospect to the Nats.
If you wanna start a riot in the NYC metro area that would be a good way to do it lol.
April fools day was several months ago
Not sure why Joey Gallo is still on an MLB team and Greg Bird is not