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Lane Thomas

Nationals’ Under-The-Radar Deadline Pickup Off To Strong Start In D.C.

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The Nationals had a high-profile teardown this past July. The biggest splash sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, while other notables like Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes and Daniel Hudson were flipped to contenders. Almost buried amidst that flurry was a lower-profile swap announced less than an hour before the deadline: acquiring outfielder Lane Thomas from the Cardinals for veteran starter Jon Lester. While that trade didn’t grab nearly as many headlines as some of the Nats’ other moves, the early returns look very promising.

Thomas has been around for a few seasons, but he never got an extended look with St. Louis. Between 2019-21, he struggled to a .172/.289/.336 line across 142 scattered plate appearances. Generally regarded by prospect evaluators as a fourth outfield type and turning 26 years old in August, it’s easy to understand why the Cardinals’ front office was willing to make him available. Yet Thomas picked up everyday run on a depleted Washington roster down the stretch, putting up quietly excellent numbers.

Over 206 plate appearances in the nation’s capital, the former fifth-round pick posted a .270/.364/.489 slash line, hitting seven home runs and stealing four bases. He spent the bulk of that time in center field, playing well enough to supplant former top prospect Víctor Robles on the depth chart. That offensive output was 27 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. More encouragingly, it was largely backed up by strong plate discipline and batted ball metrics.

During his end-of-season run, Thomas demonstrated an enviable combination of patience, bat-to-ball skills and power on contact. The right-handed hitter had an extreme willingness to work deep counts, a continuation of a trend he’d shown in St. Louis. Thomas swings far less often than most at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone, a plan of attack that allows him to draw plenty of walks but also puts him at risk for his share of strikeouts. Yet he kept the punch outs manageable during his time in Washington by making contact on a robust 82.4% of his swings (about six percentage points higher than the league mark).

That patience and contact frequency gave Thomas a strong floor from an on-base perspective, but his contact authority was particularly impressive. The Tennessee native had an average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH, more than three ticks harder than the 88.1 MPH league average. According to FanGraphs, he made hard contact on 45.1% of his batted balls with the Nats. The average MLB hitter (excluding pitchers) had a 32.5% hard contact rate in 2021.

That’s a rare set of skills, even in a limited sample of work. Among the 463 players with at least 100 plate appearances, only sixteen managed a hard contact rate north of 40% while striking out in fewer than a quarter of their trips to the dish. Other than Thomas, every player in that group posted a wRC+ of 122 or higher (indicating they were at least 22 percentage points more productive than average offensively). Removing Thomas’ poor 58 plate appearances with the Cardinals early in the season puts him right among that very impressive list of names, both from a results and process perspective.

That’s not to say Thomas is absolutely an elite hitter now, or even that the Cardinals made a mistake in giving him up. Lester was a reliable source of decent innings down the stretch, helping St. Louis to a fantastic second-half run to the postseason. And Thomas needs more than two months of strong performance to cement himself as a core member of the Nats’ future.

His first couple months in a Washington uniform couldn’t have gone much better, though. At the very least, he’s earned an extended opportunity to try to cement himself alongside Juan Soto in the long-term outfield. The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022 as they audition younger players like Thomas, but they prioritized near-MLB returns during their deadline sell-off and aren’t about to embark on a rebuild while Soto is under club control. Washington may need some things to fall into place to be realistic contenders in what should be a competitive NL East by 2023. Thomas settling in as a productive regular would be one those pluses, and he’s started off on the right foot with his new club.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Out For Season, Will Not Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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AUGUST 17: Ross will not need to undergo Tommy John surgery, Martinez told reporters (including Maria Torres of the Athletic). He won’t pitch again this season, but Martinez expressed hope he could be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

AUGUST 15: An MRI has revealed a partial UCL tear in Joe Ross’s right elbow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Nationals manager Dave Martinez says Tommy John surgery is possible but hasn’t been decided on definitively. The righty has already undergone the procedure once before, back in 2017. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post notes that he is going to see the same doctor who performed that surgery to determine how to proceed.

Whether the surgery is the chosen path or not, this is an unfortunate diagnosis for Ross, one of the few notable Nationals players that wasn’t traded at the deadline. One way or another, he is now sure to miss some significant time. He has thrown 108 innings this year with an ERA of 4.17, with strikeout and walk rate both slightly better than league average, at 23.7% and 7.4%, respectively. His 1.4 fWAR is the most of any Nationals pitcher this year who is still on the team. He’s currently on track to be a free agent after the 2022 season. But it’s now possible the team will not tender him a contract, given that there’s a chance he could miss the entire year.

For the team, this further diminishes a rotation that has lost Max Scherzer and Jon Lester to trades, as well as Stephen Strasburg to thoracic outlet surgery. Martinez says that Sean Nolin could potentially get another start in Ross’s absence, per Dougherty.

With Ross going on the IL, Lane Thomas is taking his place on the roster, also per Dougherty. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas is a 25-year-old outfielder. He got into 32 games for St. Louis this year, with a paltry slash line of .104/.259/.125. But his Triple-A numbers are much better on the season, slashing .278/.343/.476.

Nationals, Cardinals Swap Jon Lester For Lane Thomas

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The Cardinals added a second veteran lefty just prior to the trade deadline, agreeing to acquire longtime division rival Jon Lester from the Nationals in exchange for outfielder Lane Thomas. Both teams announced the swap.

Jon Lester | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Lester joins fellow graybeard J.A. Happ as a new addition to a Cardinals rotation that has been decimated by injury. The Cards are currently without ace Jack Flaherty (oblique strain), while Carlos Martinez is done for the year after undergoing thumb surgery. Miles Mikolas has pitched just four innings this year owing to another forearm strain. The Cards knew Dakota Hudson wouldn’t pitch in 2021 after he had Tommy John surgery last September. They’ve also seen absences for Kwang-hyun Kim and Daniel Ponce de Leon at times; the latter is on the shelf with a shoulder issue at the moment, in fact.

With so many injuries on the staff, the Cards had already turned to veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, and their acquisitions of Happ and Lester come with similar goals. Neither Happ nor Lester has pitched all that well in 2021, though Lester has the far better results of the two. He’s worked to a 5.02 ERA in 76 innings for the Nats and generated respectable ground-ball (42%) and walk (8.5%) rates. His 14.9 percent strikeout rate, however, is about nine percent worse than the league-average.

Lester, at this point, is primarily a five-inning pitcher. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in just five of his 16 trips to the mound this season and has been rocked at a .333/.386/.627 clip on the rare occasions he’s been asked to turn a lineup over for a third time. He’s not the innings eater that he once was, but if the Cardinals don’t try to push him into the sixth and seventh innings on the regular, he ought to be able to keep them in games and help bridge the gap until Flaherty and Mikolas are hopefully able to return. Lester is on a one-year, $5MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end.

As for the Nationals’ return, the 26-year-old Thomas has yet to produce in the big leagues outside a quick cup of coffee late in the 2019 season, although it’s still rather surprising to see the Cardinals part with a big-league-ready outfielder who can be optioned both this year and next. Thomas is hitting just .104/.259/.125 this year, though it’s just a sample of 58 plate appearances. He’s an overall .172/.289/.336 hitter in a similarly small sample of 142 plate appearances.

Lane Thomas | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Thomas ranked as the Cardinals No. 14 prospect at  FanGraphs as recently as last summer, drawing praise for his defensive prowess in center field and the potential to pair that with some improved power and plate coverage. His lack of production in the big leagues notwithstanding, Thomas is a .269/.342/.468 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons, including a .265/.339/.451 showing in Triple-A Memphis this season.

The move to the Nationals seems like a good opportunity for Thomas, who’d been squeezed out of the outfield picture in St. Louis in favor of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. With the Nationals, who traded Kyle Schwarber and have a struggling Victor Robles in center field, opportunities for Thomas ought to be more plentiful. He might be a long shot to break out as an everyday option in D.C., but Thomas should at least get that chance. For two months of a struggling veteran starter, it’s a pretty nice roll of the dice for the Nats to inherit.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN broke the news (via Twitter) that Lester was going to St. Louis. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported that the Nats were getting Thomas in return.

Cardinals Select Lars Nootbaar, Designate Bernardo Flores Jr.

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The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contract of outfielder Lars Nootbaar from Triple-A Memphis and optioned outfielder Lane Thomas to Triple-A in his place. Left-hander Bernardo Flores Jr. was designated for assignment in order to create a 40-man roster spot for Nootbaar, who’ll be making his MLB debut when he first takes the field.

Nootbaar, 23, was the Cardinals’ eighth-round pick in 2018. He didn’t enter the season ranked among the organization’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs, but the USC product’s monster season in Memphis has overshadowed that lack of fanfare.

Nootbaar has been an average or better hitter at every minor league stop prior to 2021 but has absolutely erupted with the RedBirds, slashing at a .329/.430/.557 clip. That output has come in just a 22-game sample, given a brief stay on the injured list, but for a Cardinals club that has yet again seen lackluster production in the outfield, the allure is understandable.

Cardinals outfielders are tied for 24th in the Majors with a 95 wRC+, as only Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson have provided the club with above-average offensive production. St. Louis outfielders, as a group, rank 23rd in baseball with a .232 average, 24th with a .307 on-base percentage and 20th with a .401 slugging percentage (thanks primarily to O’Neill’s 15 round-trippers). Thomas, optioned out today to create 26-man roster space for Nootbaar’s promotion, has been one of the primary reasons for the group’s poor overall rankings, batting just .104/.259/.125 in a small sample of 58 plate appearances.

Flores, 25, was an April waiver claim out of the White Sox organization and appeared in just one big league game before today’s DFA. He faced three batters back in a May 5 loss to the Mets but was unable to retire any of them, issuing a pair of walks and a base hit. Flores had a nice run through the Double-A level as a member of the White Sox’ farm system, but he’s been roughed up for a 5.74 ERA with sub-par strikeout and walk rates while pitching for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate (17.6 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively).

The Cardinals will have a week to trade Flores or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, they’ll be able to keep him in the organization without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals have placed outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day IL due to a right groin strain, the team announced.  Since righty Jake Woodford was optioned to the alternate training site after yesterday’s game, the two open roster spots were filled by outfielder Lane Thomas and right-hander Johan Oviedo.

O’Neill suffered the injury during an at-bat in yesterday’s 9-5 loss to the Brewers, coming out of the batter’s box moving slowly after hitting a grounder.  He was replaced in the field the next inning.  Manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that O’Neill might only be out for the minimum 10 days, saying that the young outfielder received “Favorable news from an imaging standpoint….Probably a three to four day (situation) before he can get in there.  We didn’t want to play short for three or four days.”

The IL stint could possibly act as something of a reset for O’Neill, who has hit only .143/.172/.286 with a league-high 14 strikeouts over his first 29 plate appearances of the 2021 season.  Strikeouts have been a persistent issue during O’Neill’s four MLB seasons, and his overall production at the plate has trailed off considerably since a promising 2018 rookie season.  On the plus side, O’Neill won a Gold Glove for his defensive work as the Cardinals’ regular left fielder in 2020.

O’Neill joins Harrison Bader on the 10-day IL, leaving the Cards even more short-handed in the outfield.  A veteran of 52 Major League games, Thomas will join the mix along with Dylan Carlson, Justin Williams, Austin Dean, and utilityman Tommy Edman (when Edman isn’t at second base).  Minor league signing Matt Szczur is also on hand at the team’s alternate training site.

Cardinals Finalize Opening Day Roster

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The St. Louis Cardinals have set their roster for opening day, per MLB.com’s Jeff Jones, Derrick S. Goold of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch and others (Twitter links). John Nogowski, Austin Dean, Edmundo Sosa, and Jake Woodford will be on the roster, while Lane Thomas and Kodi Whitley become two of the final cuts. Goold lists the final opening day roster here.

Nogowski required a strong spring to make the roster, as the 28-year-old first baseman doesn’t bring a lot of utility to the roster. He did exactly that, however, slashing .379/.526/.586 in spring action. He’ll be the first right-handed bat off the bench. With Matt Carpenter on hand to serve as Paul Goldschmidt’s primary backup, it’s hard to imagine Nogowski seeing much action in the field.

The Thomas demotion might have the most impact, as without him, the Cardinals don’t have a true centerfielder on the roster. The Cards are all-in on rookie Dylan Carlson as their man in the middle until Harrison Bader returns from injury. Justin Williams and Austin Dean will be among the players replacing Carlson in right. Tommy Edman, who won the starting second base job, could also see time in right while Carpenter or Edmundo Sosa step in at the keystone. Starting left fielder Tyler O’Neill, meanwhile, is most likely to backup Carlson in center.

Woodford, 24, wins a spot in the bullpen on the strength of a 1.04 ERA this spring. Whitley, 26, heads to the minors to begin the season. Woodford can serve as a long man out of the pen, which may be important given the uncertainty in the back end of the rotation where Carlos Martinez, John Gant, and Daniel Ponce de Leon will take their turns until Miles Mikolas and/or Kwang Hyun Kim return. From the left side, Tyler Webb and Genesis Cabrera join Andrew Miller in the bullpen.

Harrison Bader Out Four To Six Weeks With Forearm Injury

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2:40pm: President of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells reporters that Bader will be down for four to six weeks (Twitter link via ESPN’s Marly Rivera).

9:30am: Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader will begin the season on the injured list due to a “flare up” of a forearm injury that required a platelet-rich plasma injection, manager Mike Shildt announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News). He’ll be sidelined for a “solid four weeks at minimum,” according to Shildt.

The injury to Bader lends some clarity to the Cardinals’ outfield mix. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are locks at this point thanks to huge spring showings. Carlson can play center field early if needed or slide over to right field, where he’d been initially projected with a healthy Bader in play.

Justin Williams, Lane Thomas and Austin Dean are likely vying for the remaining starting job, and it’s possible that all three could make the roster (two as reserves). Dean does have some experience at first base, giving him a bit more utility in a bench role. Williams, meanwhile, is still awaiting ruling on whether he has a minor league option remaining or not. If he does not, then he’d be all but assured an Opening Day roster spot, as he wouldn’t be able to be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers.

Bader has become a polarizing figure among Cardinals fans due to his low batting average, but he’s among the game’s best defensive center fielders and has some power at the dish. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted a combined .234/.326/.401 batting line with 28 homers, 41 doubles and seven triples through 958 plate appearances — good for a 97 wRC+ (about three percent worse than league-average offense when weighted for home park and league). Some of Bader’s OBP is propped up by frequently batting eighth in front of the pitcher, however, and his 29.4 percent strikeout rate in that stretch is problematic for obvious reasons. Still, a player with his defensive aptitude and a solid .167 ISO (slugging minus batting average) needn’t be an offensive force to provide value.

That said, the Cards will now get a longer look at several outfield candidates who have quite a bit of offensive upside themselves, so it’ll be interesting to see if any of them run with the opportunity and challenge the 26-year-old Bader for playing time upon his eventual return. That four-week timeline from Shildt would take Bader out through at least April 21, though the absence could very well be longer in the likely event that he needs a tune-up at the team’s alternate site/in Triple-A once his forearm discomfort has cleared up.

Lane Thomas Tests Positive For COVID-19

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Outfielder Lane Thomas it the latest St. Louis Cardinal to test positive for coronavirus, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Major League Baseball had already announced the cancellation of the Cardinals upcoming series with the Pirates, meaning they remain stuck on just five games played. They’ve now missed 13 consecutive games. It’s still unclear when they’ll return to play and just how severe any of the  Cardinals cases are. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak did say that a couple of players went to the emergency room, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, although they did not have to stay at the hospital.

The Cardinals have now had 10 players and 7 staff members test positive, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. There aren’t believed to be any more positive tests coming, though the organization has extended its effort with contact tracing and vigorous testing will continue. If there are no more newly-discovered positive tests moving forward, it’s conceivable that the Cardinals could return to play this weekend. In order for that conversation to happen, however, the Cardinals will first look for consecutive days without a positive test, per Rogers.

The Cardinals’ Blocked Prospects

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The Cardinals haven’t had a losing record since 2007. Despite a recent playoff “drought” — a three-year stretch from 2016-18 that only qualifies as such by the St. Louis organization’s lofty standards — the Cards have run out a solid roster on an annual basis. Riding a blend of productive veterans, high-end prospects who emerge as key contributors and what seems like an out-of-nowhere success story or two every year (we see you, Tommy Edman), the Cardinals have established themselves among MLB’s more consistent franchises.

And while their strong track record in player development allows them to continually filter up quality young players to complement the veterans on the roster, it also inevitably leaves some talented players on the outside looking in. Because they’ve been able to develop so many quality youngsters, the Cards simply don’t have the space to play them all. (That’s a partial driver behind the outfield carousel they’ve experienced in recent years — though certainly not the only factor.)

Just look at some of the young players the Cardinals have traded away prior to 2019 while still managing to field competitive rosters:

That’s nine big league regulars/rotation pieces shipped out — in some cases, for disappointing returns — without causing the final on-field product to dip below .500. It’s a testament to the Cardinals’ amateur scouting and player development staffs that they’re so regularly deep with talent that they’re able to ship it off for veterans, potential areas of need or larger quantities of further-off talent. Certainly, not all of those swaps have worked out — Mercado or Pham would look nice in the outfield right now — but the Cardinals have rarely come up completely empty-handed on a deal.

Trades of this nature have become the norm for the Cards, and it’s likely that will continue to be the case. With Yadier Molina reportedly talking extension prior to the shutdown and Paul Goldschmidt signed five more years, for instance, the Cards look to have a pair of roadblocks to some more young talent. The outfield, too, has more names than playing time available. It seems likely that we’ll see more young players change hands as a result in the next calendar year, so let’s run through some possibilities.

Catcher

If a Molina extension does indeed come together, that doesn’t leave much of a path to regular playing time for 25-year-old Andrew Knizner — a  fairly well-regarded backstop whose bat looks close to big league ready. In 83 games and 341 plate appearances in Triple-A, Knizner is a .283/.362/.453 hitter with an 8.2 percent walk rate and just a 13.1 percent strikeout rate. Scouting reports on Knizner question his receiving and framing skills, but he notched a 42 percent caught-stealing rate with Triple-A Memphis in 2019.

If Knizner does indeed change hands following a Molina extension — the Cards brought Matt Wieters back to serve as his backup again — then perhaps 19-year-old Ivan Herrera will emerge as the true heir-apparent to Molina and his Hall of Fame legacy.

First Base

Luken Baker isn’t an elite prospect — few first-base-only prospects are considered as such — but FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put a 70 grade on his raw power in this year’s scouting report on the hulking 6’4″, 265-pound slugger in the making. Baker hasn’t tapped into that power just yet, though he spent the 2019 season in a pitcher-friendly Florida State League (Class-A Advanced). He’s managed his strikeouts to this point (21.6 percent) and also walked in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances. With Goldschmidt entrenched at first base through 2024, there’s no hope of Baker emerging as a regular in the near future, which seemingly puts him on a similar track to Voit.

Elsewhere on the roster, 27-year-old Rangel Ravelo (28 later this month) is out of minor league options and limited to a bench role. A career .293/.369/.452 hitter in 1652 Triple-A plate appearances who also slashed .310/.385/.473 in 649 Double-A plate appearances, Ravelo has done enough in the minors to suggest that he could hit in the big leagues. He’s played a little corner outfield, so perhaps the Cards view him as a replacement for the recently traded Jose Martinez. However, it’s possible that another club could view him as a potential late-blooming regular at first base.

The Outfield

The Dexter Fowler signing clearly hasn’t panned out as hoped, but the switch-hitting veteran’s five-year, $82.5MM deal runs through the 2021 season. Had the 2019 campaign been as much of a struggle as his 2018 season, he’d perhaps be a release candidate, but Fowler’s bat bounced back to roughly league-average levels last year (103 wRC+, 98 OPS+), and his contract should grant him a decent leash.

Harrison Bader was one of the game’s best defenders in center (14 Defensive Runs Saved, 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 13 Outs Above Average), so he’s probably locked into center field despite a rough sophomore showing at the dish (.205/.314/.366).

Left field was to be determined in camp, with the likes of Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and waiver claim Austin Dean vying for playing time. Carlson ranks among baseball’s elite overall prospects and should be installed as a regular at some point in 2020 (assuming a season is played). Even in the unlikely event that the club quickly moves on from Fowler, there’d be O’Neill, Thomas and Williams left to compete for that theoretical spot.

O’Neill was a ballyhooed prospect himself when acquired from Seattle, and though strikeouts have been an issue, he’s a passable corner defender with light-tower power and a history of drawing walks in the upper minors. Thomas can play a solid center field and owns a career .270/.342/.472 slash through 444 plate appearances in Triple-A. Williams is a corner bat who draws good marks for his raw power. He’s yet to show off that power in the minors, but FanGraphs points to his high-end exit velocity as a source of optimism if he can add more lift to his swing.

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Most organizations would love to have the “more talent than playing time” issue on the big league roster — and you certainly won’t head president of baseball ops John Mozeliak or GM Mike Girsch complain about the reality. But that duo and the rest of the Cards’ front office figure to continue to find creative ways to deal with those surpluses, and it shouldn’t come as a big surprise if some of the above names finally get their chance at playing time in another organization,

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

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