The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders but find themselves five games under .500 and 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead in the National League Central. It’s certainly not how they drew things up, but the tightly bunched NL Wild Card picture still leaves Cincinnati with some legitimate playoff aspirations. The Reds are only four games back of the third NL Wild Card spot at the moment. They’re one of many teams on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline activity will likely hinge on how the team plays in the coming weeks. In fact, general manager Brad Meador effectively confirmed as much to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“We have to wait and see how we finish off this road trip and the homestand coming up, and then we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re talking about it. We’d love to be able to add, but realistically, we’ll probably just have to see how it goes.”
The Reds control their own fate, in many respects, and they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a series of eminently winnable games. They took the first of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium last night and have a tough task finishing off that series, but they’ll close out the first half against three teams with sub-.500 records — including the two worst clubs in the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand where they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for three, four and three games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game road trip through Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg before starting a home series against the Cubs on July 29 (one day before the July 30 trade deadline).
It’s a pivotal stretch of games for the Reds, to say the least. A winning streak could catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (while narrowing the division gap), while an underwhelming stretch against some of the less-competitive clubs on the upcoming schedule could serve as a death knell for their 2024 postseason aspirations. Playing roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would leave the front office with some tougher decisions to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “vague” conversations exploring both sides of the market while cautioning nothing is close.
Among the most notable trade candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, will be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with five homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his walk rate to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a combined 8.6% in 2022-23.
India is playing out the first season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that bought out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked into a $5MM salary for the 2025 season and would be arbitration-eligible in the 2025-26 offseason before hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a good defensive second baseman, but he’s been a line-drive machine at the plate this year (24.9%) while showing his best K-BB profile since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021.
While India conceded to Wittenmyer that last year’s slate of trade rumblings got to him mentally, this time around he feels more prepared for it. The 27-year-old emphasized a desire to remain in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” the city and organization while simultaneously acknowledging that a potential trade is beyond his control and not something on which he plans to dwell.
Montas would be the roster’s most straightforward trade candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced back to his Oakland form but has been healthy with the Reds after missing nearly all of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 15 starts.
Montas’ 95.1 mph average heater (via Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to his career-best 26.6% mark, set back in 2021. Still, he’s pitched like a capable enough fourth starter and has seen his velocity build as the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph with his fastball through late April but is at 95.5 mph dating back to May 1.
Over Montas’ past six starts, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate in that stretch is too high, but the velocity and missed bats are beginning to resurface. If he can continue some of those positive gains in velocity and strikeouts, Montas could be of interest to teams looking to add to the middle tier of their rotation.
The Reds have other candidates to be moved, though their willingness to give out some surprising opt-out clauses over the winter could work against them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts worth $16MM and $26MM, respectively, but the second season of each of those deals is a player option. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, such clauses often present severe impediments to trading a player.
Other names to watch in the event of a Reds sale would include relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free agents at season’s end. Each has had varying levels of success this season while playing on an affordable salary. The return for any one of those three likely wouldn’t be enormous but could shed a small money off the payroll while adding a lottery-ticket prospect to the lower tiers of the farm system.
All of that is putting the cart before the horse, however. The Reds’ roster will have a nice window of winnable games to convince the front office that adding pieces is the proper route in the weeks ahead. Cincinnati has received negligible production from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — although Noelvi Marte’s recent return likely means they’ll install a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base more regularly now. Adding some kind of bat to help boost the offense would be prudent — assuming the Reds can keep themselves afloat or even improve upon their standing in the next couple weeks.
Reds should adopt a wait-and-see approach, remaining flexible and prepared to either add key pieces for a playoff push or strategically sell assets to build for the future, depending on their performance in the upcoming games.
They need to be buyers and sellers depending on the next couple weeks. They should consider adding controllable pieces like Taylor Ward or Brent Rooker, while selling on guys who will be leaving (Frankie Montas, Lucas Sims). Now would be a good time to move Jonathan India too, especially if they draft Travis Bazzana. I presume Matt McLain will be the 2B next year.
India is such a good fit for the Mariners, they should make that move no matter what. But the Reds should also be opportunistic buyers. I picked this team to win the division before McClain got hurt. I still believe they have the most talented team in the division when healthy.
Well said. You have my vote for Reds’ GM.
And I haven’t committed on keeping my season tickets next year or going forward. Sign Elly to an extension and be buyers. Commit to winning.
You guys have a ton of young talent, some of them hurt right now, but the Reds should be contenders this year, and especially next year when a lot the guys that are hurt will be fully healthy by Spring Training 2025.
I know. That’s why I think they should be buying controllable talent for next year with the hope that they somehow make the postseason this year. Specifically, I’d like to see then trade for Taylor Ward or Brent Rooker.
Where do you think Elly will play when McLain returns? I assume OF?
I see they shifted Steer to 1B and have Marte at 3B… Very good, young team you have.
When everyone was heathy the plan was 3B Marte, SS De La Cruz, 2B McLain, 1B/DH Candelario/CES, with India taking turns roatating through 2B/1B/DH. Steer in LF, Friedl in CF. Then the Reds just need to pony up $600M to add Juan Soto in RF.
I agree with 216. I think they’ll keep him at short with McClain at 2B. It’s not what I would do, but it’s very trendy to have small forwards playing SS in the NL Central right now.
I don’t think McLain takes the job back from India or maybe they move India to OF but he’s good bench piece
I say move McLain back to SS and have Elly play RF next year. He has the arm and the speed, llus they have another natural SS on Arroyo not far away defensively, at least.
You don’t want to lose India and Friedl setting the table for the rest. It is just a different lineup with those guys in it.
@Whiffa Wait, do you mean they should put McLain as a bench player or India? I have a hard time seeing either one going that route. Maybe India but he is not good defensively so that wouldn’t make sense. McLain (when back healthy) has too much potentail to be on the bench.
This season I think they’ll move India to outfield if McLain can prove he can come back and be ready to contribute at mlb level
Christian Encarnacion Strand is out for the season. If McLain comes back they’ll use India as DH and occasional 2B to spell McLain.
2025 ideal lineup, as I see it:
C Stephenson
1B CES
2B India
SS McLain
3B Marte
LF Steer
CF Friedl
RF De La Cruz
DH Candelario
Solid…and if they are still around, Benson, Fairchild, Maile, and Espinal solid enough bench guys in case of injury but not consistent enough to be everyday players.
EDLC in RF would be wasting an awful lot of defensive value. Plus EDLC has stronger splits against RHP, and they already have Benson & Fraley with strong-side platoon splits in the corner OF, assuming they don’t find an external upgrade.
Probably better to keep EDLC on the IF. Play matchups and rotate DH and days off among CES, Candelario, India and Marté. Injuries tend to resolve things much of the time anyway. And the jury is still out on a couple of those guys.
Solid maybe. CES, and Marte have to prove they can hit at the ML level. They likely can, but being out so long for whatever reason doesn’t answer the question.
Armaments, taking enotion out of it, even if they played as well as last year, they are not everyday guys. So you either get guys who are or get strong right handed hitters for the other side of that platoon. They did neither.
Also, I think you forget how good of a shortstop McLain was. Elly started out at third when he was still in the lineup if you recall, and Elly was good at third. With his athleticism, speed, and arm, Elly could handle RF.
They can never settle on an actual plan. No surprise.
Inaction is the name of this front office.
Sell off the rentals (players with player/mutual options for 2025 count as rentals) and maybe do some light buying on someone who fills a need and is controlled through at least 2026 (something like what the Padres did when they traded for Ian Kennedy 11 years ago).
Per FanGraphs, 8% to make the playoffs.
Definitely right not to commit, yet
Looks like 6 sellers and 24 buyers at the deadline. That should be good for the 6 sellers.
One of those sellers is the White Sox, who should be selling everything under the sun right now…
What do they really have to sell?
White Sox fans, in the lower minors, they have a nice group of ballplayers who are actually good guys as well. Due to circumstances, I have seen them play quite a bit this year and met a few. I hope these guys stay together as a unit for you all as they play well together.
Now I agree, sell and add to it by all means as not everyone makes the big leagues. But the club seems to be working on it. So just wanted to tell you there is some hope, though not as soon as you would probably like.
The Reds will be sellers but they are not likely to sell much more than Montas.
There will not be 24 buyers at the deadline. Not even close. Most of these teams will be at least 10 games out by the trade deadline and well under .500.
That was a bit of hyperbole but the number of teams bunched in the middle will have far more buyers than sellers. I don’t see many teams in the middle pulling or falling away. This is a year where mediocrity is everywhere.
Big Bob will probably think the deadline is the bee’s knees.
I would be surprise if they add players unless the players will help them next year and beyond. I suspect they will move Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez (although the Reds probably would have to eat some of his salary) and maybe Emil Pagan if he is healthy. Perhaps they may move Buck Farmer who may have some value right now. But I suspect it will be limited to Frankie Montas.
The Reds have a good shot at Charlie Condon with the second overall pick next month. Just trade the impending free agents, get McLain, Encanarcion-Strand, TJ Friedl and Brandon Williamson healthy for 2025 and get back at them next year. No need to panic or chase a WC spot that they probably catch.
*won’t
Although, I suspect the Reds will be light sellers, I don’t expect them to trade Jonathon India just yet. They have him on a team friendly deal next year. Also, it may take Matt McLain sometime to recover from shoulder surgery. Even If they draft Bazzana (I think Cleveland will grab him at #1) he likely won’t be ready by next opening day. I suspect Jonathon India to be the Reds starting second basemen to start the 2025 season.
An argument could be made to trade India while his value is up. It just depends on the return. If we could bundle him and a prospect for a good right fielder with some pop it would make sense.
Reds pitching staff has arrived. I can see them trading relievers (Martinez, Sims, Wilson) for a marginal RH bat. Open up spots for Young, Santillan, maybe Zulueta to get some ML appearances. Krall not likely to trade away his draft picks. Still hope Reds select Chase Burns in the draft. A pitcher (which Reds have had success in drafting/develop[ing) over a hitter (which Red seem to be weak at developing). Reds can sign FA hitters easier than top shelf pitchers because of GABP.
He was ready to unload them for cease (yikes!)
Reds need to go SEC power bat. Condon or Caglianone. Pitcher at 2 is too risky imo
Hopefully they’ll make a move or two, offload some arms in exchange of a most needed RH bat.
Send some relievers the Mets way.
As a Cardinals fan, I wouldn’t trade India unless the got a pretty high end prospect. He’s still controllable. He’s one of the scary guys in their lineup right now. He’s not a super star, but the guy can hit.
And considering it appears were in a pitching era, I’ll take guys who can hit any day of the week.
Unless you get the prospect you need, I’d keep him. But I understand why they wouldn’t.
I would expect corrective action from MLB next season. In their never ending quest to control the outcome of everything, MLB will likely utilize a different ball next season and offense will return. Hitters will be cheap this time next year.
Be nice to see reds get Diaz and Gomber from Rockies . Give a headliner like collier or a 4 player return from their deep system.
Or how bout CES, Lowder, petty and hinds for Vlad jr and gausman ?
I would say any of the multitude of young infielders in the minors are trade bait as the Reds are set there for a few years. The question is, will they actually be used as such. Survey says no.
I think the Reds will wait and see what happens in the draft. If they can draft Charlie Condon, the need for a RH hitting outfielder will be met. Even if they are still in search for a RH hitting outfielder after the draft, the Reds will likely wait until the off-season to address it.
As I said, I can see them moving Montas but not much more. If the return for Montas is too low, they may just keep him the rest of the year, especially if they have a shot at a WC spot.
As a lifelong diehard Reds fan the Reds should trade with any team that makes thenm better except with the Dodgers.
At least they are done paying Ken Griffey Junior now finally.
Last year he was #3 on the highest payroll number on the team.
It really hurt them paying both Votto and Griffey Jr. for little and no production the last several years. That was a lot of money for nothing.. That is why I am against long term contracts. They hardly ever go well for the team. As a player ages he is usually hurt or just not as productive.
I always say five max for position players and three max for pitchers, but they don’t listen to me or anyone really.