The Red Sox placed infielder David Hamilton on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to a left index finger fracture, which he suffered on a bunt single the day before. He told reporters that the timetable would be four to six weeks but that he’s hoping to get that down to two to three weeks, which would be based on his pain tolerance. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic was among those who relayed the info on X.
The Sox have had a rotating cast of characters covering second base this year. They had planned on giving the gig to Vaughn Grissom after acquiring him from Atlanta for Chris Sale in the winter. But Grissom has been injured or struggling for most of the year, which opened the spot for others. Apart from Grissom, ten different players have seen at least a bit of action at the keystone for Boston this year.
No one really took hold of the job but Hamilton arguably performed the best of the group. His .248/.303/.395 batting line this year only translates to a 91 wRC+, indicating he’s been 9% below average, but he’s stolen 33 bases in 37 tries and has played both middle infield positions. His work at shortstop hasn’t been graded well but he has nine Defensive Runs Saved and three Outs Above Average at second. Overall, FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 1.6 wins above replacement on the year.
He may not get a chance to alter those numbers in the wake of his injury. The four-to-six-week timeline would essentially wipe out his regular season at this point. Even if he has a chance to come back quicker, that would probably require the Sox to stay in the race. They are currently 3.5 games back of a playoff spot. If they fall back in the coming weeks, there wouldn’t be much point in rushing Hamilton back before he’s 100% healthy.
For now, the Sox will likely keep the carousel of players going through the keystone, with Nick Sogard, Romy González and Mickey Gasper some of the options on the roster. Perhaps they will recall Grissom at some point, though he’s currently getting regular playing time at Triple-A Worcester.
Another X-factor in the club’s middle infield plans will be Trevor Story, who is trying to return to the club before the season is done. He has been trying to come back from April shoulder surgery that was initially thought to be season-ending and tells Rob Bradford of WEEI (X link) that a rehab assignment will be his next step, though he didn’t provide a specific date for starting that rehab.
Even if Story does return to the Sox this year, it’s anyone’s guess what form he will be in. The Sox signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022 but haven’t received much on that investment yet. He has missed significant time due to various ailments, including this year’s shoulder surgery and last year’s elbow surgery. He has only appeared in 145 games for the Sox since signing that deal and has hit just .227/.288/.394 in his 598 plate appearances.
It’s fair to conclude that the lack of health has played a big role in tamping down his production, but that also means there might still be some rust if he returns to the club in the next few weeks. Still, it could be good for the long term if he gets some playing time under his feet before the winter. He’s still a big part of the club’s future, with three years remaining on that deal. Ceddanne Rafaela has been playing shortstop of late but he’s not hitting much and still has options. He could be sent down to the minors or perhaps be bumped into a utility role since he’s also a capable outfielder.
Turning to the pitching staff, right-hander Liam Hendriks could be back in the majors soon. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery last year but has started a rehab assignment and made four appearances in the minors this month. He tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that he’s targeting a return next weekend.
Now 35, Hendriks has been on quite a tumultuous journey in recent years. He missed the start of the 2023 season while dealing with a diagnosis of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After beating cancer, he returned to the mound with the White Sox but only made five appearances before requiring the aforementioned surgery. The Sox signed him in the offseason to a two-year deal with a $10MM guarantee and another $10MM in incentives, knowing that they probably wouldn’t get much out of the righty in the first season.
That was a logical step for the Sox as Hendriks was dominant prior to this odyssey. From 2019 to 2022, he made 226 appearances with a 2.26 earned run average, 38.8% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate. On top of that, both Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are set to hit free agency after 2024, so signing Hendriks in the winter was a preemptive move to address the 2025 bullpen ahead of schedule.
It’s also possible that Martin could be back. He tells the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (X link) that he’s planning on pitching again next year, in what would be his age-39 season, as long as he feels good through the end of the current campaign. He also spoke positively of the Red Sox organization and seemed open to a return.
Martin and the Sox signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal heading into 2023. He has thrown 86 2/3 innings over the course of that deal with a 1.77 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate, 48.1% ground ball rate and tiny 2.9% walk rate. Given the continued strong results, he figures to get strong interest from the Sox or any other club around the league if he wants to keep his career going.
Spoiled red Sox fans in 3,2,1…
No way Rafaela goes to Worcester.
let – If it means giving Campbell or Anthony a taste of the majors, I say yes send down Rafaela. Clearly his hitting hasn’t improved, maybe he can find his stroke in Worcester.
Fever- He’s never going to fix his swing until he stops swing, consistently at anything a foot outside.
That said? I.m not in favor of demoting him, rather him in CF and Duran moving to LF with O’Neil on the bench until he’s somewhere else next season.
Grissom it’s time to either cut bait with this coming offseason rather than trying to force a square peg into a round hole. Too many capable middle IF as it is and he’s just another. They won’t be able to move Story and his 3/75m (and 5m buyout). Try and get anything at all for Grissom, then look at Campbell/Mayer/meidroth/Sogard/Hamilton for SS/2b next year. Those guys listed at least accomplished something positive in ’24.
john – Having a GG outfielder start in LF at Fenway every game just seems like such a waste of talent, that’s my biggest issue with keeping Rafaela in CF. But if Duran is traded this offseason, then I’m in agreement with you.
No way CR gets sent down. My out of the box suggestion is if/when Story is ready, he goes back to second which is an easier position to ease into. One where he previously excelled at.
dewey – Why? Story went back to SS last year and did very well defensively.
If you have a guy who excels at both middle infield positions, you want him at the more important SS position.
Best overall defensively would be in my view Story at second, CR at short and an OF of O’Neil, Duran and Abreu assuming all are healthy
Fever- the Sox have two pieces to try to get a potential Ace. The Sox can trade Duran or Casas but can’t trade both. I think ya keep T.O. in both instances because T.O. and Devers are the home run threats on the roster. Rafaela is the key in why we have the flexibility to do either trade. Trading Casas ya move Devers to first, then Rafaela could play 3rd or Story if ya trying to protect Story a little and put Rafaela on short. Or ya trade Duran and Yoshida keep T.O in left, Rafaela in Center, and platoon Abreu and Refsnyder in RF……Either move should get at least a number 2 rotation piece….add prospects and ya probably could try for a Skubal or give Seattle a call…
Never even thought of trading Casas who in my view is not being dealt. Their chips are Duran and in the minors. The question is how do they and other teams truly value each. The Sales trade to Boston would be viewed far differently if Devers had been included instead of Moncada.
dewey – Well Rafaela at shortstop blew the game last night.
Ref misplayed an easy fly ball out into a double, allowing one run to score.
And then the brain-dead Rafaela got the ball from Ref and didn’t bother to pay attention to the second runner, which Cora (the older, intelligent, non-cheating one) noticed and sent the second runner home with the winning run.
This is yet another example of what I’ve been saying all along, Rafaela is an extremely gifted million dollar athlete with a ten cent brain. The huge and costly mental error was just one of many, such as about a month ago when he got tagged out talking to Hudson and didn’t realize he wasn’t touching the bag.
If more people here actually watched the games like I do, they’d understand why I have concerns about Rafaela’s lack of intelligence and immaturity. Will it improve as he gets older? Perhaps, only time will tell.
bum – I agree with you that trading either Duran or Casas is not out of the realm of possibility.
Casas is now hitless in his last 15 AB’s, and with each passing day is acting more and more like an attention-craving headcase. It’s fine for players to be quirky like Manny, but the things Casas does – the latest being his wearing a ski mask and goggles on the field, after saying his rib pain felt like being shot and stabbed with a knife – is generating a lot of attention the team doesn’t want or need. It’s tolerable when you’re performing well, but a nuisance when you’re not and your teammates already don’t care for your antics.
I think there is zero chance of TO returning next year. Homeruns shouldn’t be an issue, not with Story good for at least 20 in a healthy season and Rafaela always swinging for the fences. Add Campbell and Anthony to Casas, Abreu and Devers, they should be fine with hitting for power.
Yep Rafaela’s versatility will keep him around as long as Cora is the manager.
I honestly don’t think Skubal will be traded, the Tigers have the ability to spend big and they are anxious to become competitive again.
As for the Mariners pitchers, their home/road splits leaves me very cautious about overspending for one of them.
I think it needs to be spelled out:
Woo H-1.50 ERA, R-2.94 ERA
Kirby H-2.94 ERA, R-4.17 ERA
Castillo H-3.15 ERA, R-4.35 ERA
Gilbert H-2.35 ERA, R-3.81 ERA
Miller H-2.03 ERA, R-4.75 ERA
I’d bite on Woo, that’s about it.
dewey – They haven’t even come close to an extension with Casas, he’s got the concerning rib injury looming over him, and they need to move Devers off 3B.
Casas is not untouchable by any means, he could have the same career trajectory as Plantier.
Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox deal one of Anthony, Duran, Mayer or possibly even Teel this offseason. While I love the Top 3 prospects, they all hit LH. If all 3 were to make it to the majors somehow next year; the Sox would have 7 LHH in their lineup (Devers, Casas, Duran, Abreu, Mayer, Anthony & Teel), not to mention Yoshida as well. That is way too many LHH for a major league club. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 2 of these LHH are traded in the offseason for a budding ace or another comparable fielding prospect who bats right handed.
Dotty – There’s an old baseball saying, you draft the most talented player available regardless of team need.
The same is said for lineups, you don’t give away talented LHB just because there’s supposedly “too many” other LHB in the lineup already.
Sox announcers are absolutely CRUSHING Cora and the Red Sox analytics for pulling Cooper after throwing just 52 pitches. The guy had a perfect game through 4 innings!!! He’d been averaging 77 pitches per start, so why not let him pitch 1-2 more innings??? They pulled him for one reason only, Cora’s obsession with L/R matchups.
Dumb, dumb, DUMB!!
DOB, who is usually very mild mannered and wears rose colored glasses, called it the most controversial loss of the season. He’s probably right! Screw the analytics, if a pitcher is absolutely cruising with a very low pitch count then leave him in the damn game!
Don’t make plans BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTED to pull a SP after a certain inning, that is a horrible way of managing. Cora and the misuse of analytics are absolutely destroying this franchise!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
Sox announcers are absolutely CRUSHING Cora and the Red Sox analytics for pulling Cooper after throwing just 52 pitches. The guy had a perfect game through 4 innings!!! He’d been averaging 77 pitches per start, so why not let him pitch 1-2 more innings??? They pulled him for one reason only, Cora’s obsession with L/R matchups.
Dumb, dumb, DUMB!!
DOB, who is usually very mild mannered and wears rose colored glasses, called it the most controversial loss of the season. He’s probably right! Screw the analytics, if a pitcher is absolutely cruising with a very low pitch count then leave him in the damn game!
Don’t make plans BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTED to pull a SP after a certain inning, that is a horrible way of managing. Cora and the misuse of analytics are absolutely destroying this franchise!!!
_______________________________________
Red Sox fans should have long since gotten used to the idea that Cora mismanages any bullpen and starting pitchers, so the pen burns out by the All-Star Game.
The important match with Detroit confirmed this.
Be prepared to see bad bullpen and starting pitching decisions over the next 3 seasons that will cost the Red Sox at least 10 wins.It isn’t surprising that all these factors lead to negative consequences. .
Remember the early games against Seattle, when Cora put Campbell in a high-leverage situation… pulling starting pitchers after 70 pitches and five innings…
For Cora, games in April don’t matter, he has stated this several times.
.
Fever Pitch Guy
Someone should tell Cora that you don’t have to stick to the plan 100 percent and you can always make adjustments to this plan depending on the circumstances, but Alex considers himself the smartest manager.
He’s not really a smart general manager, I’ve seen this for the 4th year in a row.
Not even Cora and his decisions regarding the bullpen and starting pitchers could spoil 2018, the Red Sox were so talented.
Dorothy_Mantooth
I don’t think trading Durant, Anthony, Teal, Campbell, Mayer after this season is a good idea.
Duran is the leader of the current team.
I think a package could be put together for a #2/3 starting pitcher with Abreu as the headliner plus Valdez and a couple of top 20 prospects.
Ace – maybe Sasaki
#2 – Houck
#3 – trade
#4 – Bello
#5 – Crawford
#6 – Giolito
#7 – Criswell
#8 – Fitts
#9 – Priester
#10 – Dobbins
The Red Sox don’t need to trade their prospects for an ace.
Dorothy_Mantooth
While, I like Abreu and would like him to stay with the Red Sox 2025, it’s clear that he will block Anthony and the Sox need a starting pitcher.
This is my lineup for 2025;
1.Duran CF
2.Anthony LF
3.Story SS
4.Devers 3B
5.Casas 1B
6.Rafaela RF
7.Yoshida DH
8.Hamilton 2B /Grissom,Campbell later
9.Wong C / Teel later
Bench; Romy UTL, 4th OF FA, C FA, Sogard (INF).
SP:
Ace – FA, maybe Sasaki
#2 – Houck, 3 y’s of control (1st Arb)
#3 – Trade
#4 – Bello, 5 y’s, contract
#5 – Crawford, 4 y’s of control (1st Arb)
#6 – Giolito 1 year + vesting option on 2026
#7 – Criswell 5 y’s of control
#8 – Fitts 6 y’s of control
#9 – Priester 5 y’s minimum of control
Bullpen; Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Z.Kelly, Booser, Bernardino, Guerrero, W.Gonzalez, Mata, C.Murphy, Penrod, Shugart.
It is necessary to trade or DFA garbage pitchers – Winkowski, Weissert, Horn…
DFA – Dalbec
Fever, I agree totally. I just doubt the higher-ups and certainly Cora will allow him to go back to the minors.
let – I totally agree, the powers that be won’t allow him to be sent down.
Far too much conjecture. Story hasnt even started a rehab assignment. And even after the 10 or so games it will take to regain timing (if he doesnt need longer), he will be eased slowly back into major league games. Lots could happen before now and then. Guys get hurt or get cold. A platoon system would be fine for the 6 or 7 players involved (DH included).
Much ado about nothing.
Let – Rafaela has been benched for today’s game.
Good to see Cora disciplining him for once.
Yeah that’s ridiculous yo even contemplate
Rafaela since the all star break .285/.324/.358 in 145 plate appearances
Abreu since the all star break .275/.348/.529 in 115 play appearances
Abreu way worse. lol.
Worse? Both have played well overall with CR just in a slump the last week or so. Add defensive value and both have done fine for their first full MLB seasons.
I was being sarcastic Dewey but the proof as someone likes to state is in the stats. Abreu who, admittedly is strong side platoon player, statistically has had the much greater impact when he plays. He might be 10 points less in batting but based on slash lines he’s the much more impactful hitter.
letitbetowenstein – No WAY for Rafaela. That’s pure ignorance by Fever.
Top averages since the all-star break:
1 Yoshida .341
2 Duran .316
3 Casas .313
4 Devers .287
5 Rafaela .285
Pull your heads out of your rear-ends and stop with the prejudice against Rafaela. First guy NOT hitting better than him ABREU!!!!!!!!!!
Also, O’Neill, Gonzalez, Refsnyder, Sogard and Wong!!!!
Ship their rear ends down to AAA if you need space. Just think if Rafaela got to hit with Duran Casas Devers like some of these other schmucks!!!
Nothing wrong with his swing either. Just an uneducated opinion.
Campbell needs to be playing SS and Anthony can come up and hit for the platoon guy Abreu. Maybe he can run better routes in the outfield than Abreu or learn how to reach up and catch fly balls over his head!!!
FYI…. Fever – that guy with the bad swing according to you just homered in the 10th to take a 2 run lead and then Duran homered and Boston is now up 3 runs. 5th highest average because of a recent dip (he was second highest) and you want him in AAA!!! hahaha
Never mess with Rafaela, it’s always going to bring the house down on you. The fact that Cora hates him shouldn’t impact educated fans, because they know Cora is more qualified to be a guy slinging hot dogs. (I apologize to the hot dog guys, that was unfair to you!!)
Maybe Grissom will blossom, but wow. Sale is working on taking the NL Cy and pitching Triple Crown right now. And the extension he signed with Atlanta is looking like a steal.
mack – Yes AA swindled Breslow, no question about that.
Can’t think of a better example of a team buying high and selling low when it comes to the Red Sox and Sale. He proved he was healthy last year, that was the only question. Everyone knew good health would lead to a return to greatness. Well, everyone except the Red Sox.
Did Chris Sale really prove he was healthy last year I wouldn’t say that. He missed over two months of the season from June 2nd to August 10th. To me that proving your health.
He did the finish the season healthy for the first time in years but he wasn’t great to finish the season either. Plus it was like he was snake-bit with Boston I’m not convinced he wouldn’t have been injured with Boston again. I don’t blame Breslow for trading Sale they weren’t going to resign him and this season was going to be his last in Boston. Still a young pitcher would have been nice instead Vaughn Grissom at a position we have a ton of players coming. Hell we could have been seeing Nick Yorke being called up to take over 2nd for the rest of the season but because of the Grissom trade they got rid of him as superfluous. Breslow has work to do this offseason his first forays into haven’t been good and that’s putting it nicely.
“ that’s not proving your health”
Bruin – Even Breslow admitted Sale was the healthiest he’s been in years.
masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/despite-recent-injury-…
On the first full day of baseball’s annual Winter Meetings, Breslow, in assessing his starting rotation, was asked about his expectations for Sale. Could Sale be counted on for 25 or more starts in 2024?
“I don’t know why we would say he shouldn’t, right?” responded Breslow. “He’s as healthy as he’s been (in a while) at this point. I think he has the benefits of a normal ramp-up and a normal offseason. I think he’s probably understanding and we’re understanding how to help him recover and take care of himself.
“I don’t know why I wouldn’t sit here and say we expect a full healthy season.”
Devastated by another setback, he returned and over his final nine outings of the season, he pitched to a 3.91 ERA. More importantly, he was healthy at the conclusion of the season.
This offseason, he hasn’t had to rehab or start from scratch. Sale is experiencing a normal winter, and that gives Breslow hope.
“We feel really good about where he is right now,” said Breslow. “Speaking to the medical group, the performance group, this is the most optimistic they’ve been. And the value of a full, healthy, normal off-season is huge. He’s throwing off the mound. He feels good about his progress in the offseason. The reality is, when he’s on the mound, he’s a really good major league pitcher.”
Fever I’m not advocating he wasn’t healthy at the beginning of the year. I was just saying that guy hasn’t stayed healthy for the full season since he got that extension with Boston. In retrospect we should have kept him. He’s remained healthy and he’s been Chris Sale all year. It also sure looks like Grissom is superfluous now since Campbell has gone past him and imo is the Red Sox 2nd baseman next year. This was all hard to predict though I know of no one including me who thought Campbell would take this kind of jump. It was also really hard to bank on Sale to be healthy all season. I don’t blame Breslow for that trade.
Great discussion except you left out the Cora factor. The fact that Breslow didn’t put two and two together and get four and figure out THE ONLY TIME SALE HAS STRUGGLED IN HIS CAREER WAS WITH CORA.
The trade comes from the GM so nobody else should be blamed other than the GM. That’s how baseball works.
Grissom hadn’t even qualified as a pre-arb 1 and they paid $17MM for him. How dumb is that!!!! The guy looks to be a league average player with a high batting average, average fielding skills, average speed, no power and average walk rate. $17MM rather than an elite pitcher who could win the Cy Young and if nothing else he’ll get Cy Young votes the one year he leaves Cora? DUMB, DUMB and DUMB. No wonder the owners don’t trust this GM with their money. The last guy fleeced them and this guy is a genius? But he couldn’t figure out the Cora factor? Book smart and street stupid apparently.
Bruin – I agree on Campbell, but they had so many other options at 2B to start the season. It could have been Rafaela & Story covering middle infield.
Giving Giolito $39M to replace Sale, on top of the $17M they gave Atlanta to cover Sale’s salary, was incredibly foolish even if Giolito had managed to stay healthy.
I get trading Sale because ownership doesn’t plan to contend until at least 2026, but it would have been a good gamble to hold onto Sale during the first half of this season and then trade him for a premium return.
And BTW remember there’s been big question marks about Grissom’s ability to play 2B, which is why Atlanta was planning to try him out in the outfield.
Yea Fever the jury is out on Breslow. His trades have not been good. His free agent additions have been a mixed bag. I like some of the infrastructure things he’s done. It appears he had a good draft and international signings this season but it’s very early. This is going to be a big off season for Breslow. This team has shown they can compete. They need pitching reinforcements including a tor arm. They have a lot of arms and expect Bello to continue to mature and get better. This rotation looks a lot different if it’s fronted by tor arm. I’m afraid though that ownership won’t green-light spending this off-season and just say something like Gio is coming back Fulmer in the pen but hopefully they surprise me and spend some money.
Of course Breslow was going to say Sale is healthy at the winter meetings if he intended to trade him.
What was Breslow to say when he was trying to increase Sale’s value? Stop relying only on stories that are PR spin. The problem is not trading Sale as it was the right move for a team not expected to win in 24 or extend him. The problem isn’t even the return because EVERYONE expected Grissom to hit. I. my view, the mistake was not forcing Atlanta to pay more of Sale’s contract so that money could have been used elsewhere as the Boston bean counters limit Breslow’s ability to do more in the short term.
All, we just said the same thing!
Dewey: Yes. We are brilliant!
Bruin – I hope and think Breslow will improve with experience. As with any new job, there will always be a learning curve. He didn’t inherit a great team like Theo and Ben did, which makes it that much harder on him along with the greatly reduced budget he has to work with.
Did you see the recent upcoming free agent list? Slim pickings with just Burnes, Snell, Flaherty and Fried. The Red Sox weren’t motivated to grab any of last year’s SP bargains because they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026, so I doubt they will even attempt to outbid for any of those four guys in what will be a competitive market.
Can a rotation of Houck, Crawford, Bello, Gio and Paxton be competitive next year? Sorry I just don’t see it. Ownership has often stated they will spend when and if CMAT settle into solid MLB players, but if none of them are going to get a cup of coffee this year then the timeline will likely move from 2026 to 2027.
dewey – You think any MLB franchise, let alone arguably the best, would make a major trade to acquire a veteran pitcher and give out a sizeable contract extension based on what a rival team says? LOL!!
I’ve been around long enough to see the Red Sox make the exact same damn mistake over and over with their star players.
Wade Boggs was a .345 career hitter when he had an injury plagued 1992 season in which he hit just .259 and the Red Sox were dumb enough to think his career was over. He ended up hitting .317 his next 4 years and even won his first two Gold Gloves!
Roger Clemens had injury-plagued 1995-1996 seasons in which his ERA jumped to 3.83 and the Red Sox were dumb enough to think his career was over. He ended up pitching 10 more years with a 3.17 ERA!!!!
Moral of the story, never give up on superstars just because they have a period of injury in their mid-30’s. ESPECIALLY if it’s a pitcher whose injuries aren’t even arm related.
Remember what I kept writing over and over last season? Big market teams like the Red Sox should never, ever punt on a season because you just don’t know what could happen.
Just imagine where the Sox would be right now if they had kept Sale OR signed Flaherty OR signed Lugo OR signed Imanaga OR traded for Burnes OR signed Wacha OR signed Manaea! My God they had so many opportunities to improve their pitching without giving out a big contract, and yet all they did was swap a perennial Cy Young contender for a guy with a 5 ERA over the prior two seasons who had injury flags all over the place. How pathetic is that?
As for Grissom, who is “everyone”? I certainly didn’t make that assumption, not after he was sent down in 2022 when his OPS crashed from .792 to .659
Here’s one of the scouting reports: “I’m lukewarm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy”.
“Was late reading and reacting to a couple ground balls. At bats were solid in the games I saw, but saw a little pitch recognition issue.”
As for the metrics ….
“For some strange reason, it appears that Grissom just forgot how to hit a breaking pitch. He saw 98 breaking pitches in August and 97 in September, so that sample sizes are as about as even as you can get, yet the rate stats are drastically different.
In August, against breaking pitches Grissom had a wOBA of .365 (league average in 2022 was .272), and an xwOBA of .390. It was looking like Grissom had the potential to be an elite hitter against breaking pitches.
However, in September his performance against them took a nose dive. His wOBA against breaking pitches was .171, and his xwOBA was .273.”
“Ultimately, his downfall against the pitch was due to a few reasons. First, that he was swinging and missing more. His whiff rate sky rocketed from 32.3 percent in August to 44.4 percent in September. His quality of contact dropped as well. In August his average exit velocity (EV) against breaking pitches was 84.2 MPH with a launch angle of 8 degrees. In September his EV dropped to 73.9 and his launch angle was -3 degrees.”
Fever, we obviously disagree. Sale has had one injury after another but if a ready now team was willing to take a chance, why not? Here, the team thought Grissom was ready and just held back by Akbie. Why listen to one or two scouts if you have your own? And it was nearly all if not everyone. The problem then was the Sox envisioned Grissom hitting .300 and stabilizing the infield with Story back. Obviously, they saw in Grissom what we today don’t see. I got one would love to have kept Sale and rolled the dice but ownership obviously did not believe the team could win in 24.
dewey – I think we partially agree. Ownership has said they don’t plan to compete until at least 2026, so I agree with you that holding onto Sale for 2024/2025 would have been kinda pointless.
But certainly they could have gotten a LOT more for him if they had kept him through the trade deadline. Mark my words, unless Grissom turns into an All-Star that trade will go down as one of the worst in MLB history.
It’s so frustrating to realize the Sox would be firmly cemented in a playoff spot, and have a legit chance to do some serious damage in the postseason, if they had simply held onto Sale.
You are 100% correct about ownership never believing in this year’s team.
When the NYY acquired Jazz at the deadline, the Red Sox acquired Jansen.
When the Astros acquired Kikuchi, the Red Sox acquired Paxton.
When the Dodgers acquired Kopech, the Red Sox acquired Garcia.
Talk about an embarrassing trade deadline for a front office that *claimed* to want to improve the team.
And they are showing even more their non-interest in winning with today’s call-ups of Shugart and Valdez. I mean seriously, THAT’s the best they can do? Why haven’t they called up Kristian Campbell or Roman Anthony or Kyle Teel instead?
Um… Because they aren’t taking this season seriously? I think we all realized this even before Spring Training started?
That’s probably for the best at this point. It makes no sense to underinvest in the team in January, then try to fix it mid-season. That gets very expensive and doesn’t work very well.
They may also be conserving 40-man roster spots, only adding guys like Sogard that they don’t mind losing on waivers.
tff – Of course you’re right, ownership hasn’t tried to contend since the 2018 season.
There are three things that make Red Sox Nation very frustrated and angry.
1) A large market team with the 4th-highest revenue in MLB should NEVER punt on a season. If they hadn’t punted on this season, Sox would be firmly in a playoff spot right now.
2) Since they never had any intention of truly contending, even after the better-than-expected first half of the season, they should have sold. Instead they wasted decent prospects who could have been packaged for longterm impact players.
3) They are wasting an opportunity for guys like Campbell, Teel, Anthony and Fitts to get their feet wet this season. Whether it’s service time manipulation or not, they are delaying even more the next possible window of true contention by not promoting ANY prospects this season. The fact that guys like Gasper, Danny Jansen, Valdez, Sogard, Hill, and Shugart are on the active roster is ridiculous!
Other than Yorke (who brought them another prospect in return), I don’t think they gave up much talent. No way to package guys you don’t want for impact players — at most they can be a sweetener in a much larger deal (and they still have plenty of talent at that level for sweeteners). They weren’t going to add those prospects to the 40-man roster anyways.
Won’t hurt Campbell, Teel, Anthony, and Fitts to finish out the Woo-Sox schedule. The first three are already moving very fast through the minors, still have plenty to work on. Fitts only really got his act together in August, so he hasn’t been held back. The last game is September 22, so they could come up for the final week if it mattered. HOWEVER it saves a spot on the 40-man roster if they wait until 2025. Fitts is the only one who needs to be added this year regardless.
So yeah, I’m plenty frustrated about #1, and have been since last winter. I really thought they could put together a contending team this year, and they didn’t even try!!! But I believe #2 is overstated and while I would love to see the kids in the majors, I can also see the other side of that one.
I’m not totally confident that Shugart doesn’t belong in the majors. He isn’t a top prospect, for sure, but he has a nice change. That’s a bit of a lost art. 🙂
I think we may see yearly complaints that the Red Sox are not trying as I don’t see them signing older free agents to big contracts that often anymore. I think most of their longer contracts will come from locking up their younger talent. I think they may spend more on free agents to fill holes when their top prospects are up with the Red Sox. I doubt we see guys like Campbell, Anthony and Teel up with the Red Sox this year after only 3-4 weeks at AAA. Fitts might get a start of two with the Red Sox as he has been at AAA all year.
If they had simply locked up Betts long term, I could be a lot more patient with the rest….
tff – So for #2 are you saying they should NOT have sold? They could have gotten a whole lot of talent for at least Pivetta and O’Neill.
Given where they were in the standings, I think they played it right. Small additions but without spending meaningful value.
Hoping they keep Pivetta or perhaps Flaherty. Not aces, but the contracts that are being floated for the aces are insane. Some $280M for Burnes? Or $200M for Cole? Only worth it if you get their last six years rather than their next six years.
tff17
I don’t see the point in keeping Pivetta, he’s a solid №4 at best, in 4 seasons with the Red Sox he hasn’t shown the consistency as a starting pitcher that he can be a solid №3.
Pivetta with Red Sox:
2021 – 31G (30GS) 4.53 ERA pre-arb ($ 0,613m)
2022 – 33G (33GS) 4.56 ERA 1st arb ($ 2,65 m)
2023 – 38G (16GS) 4.04 ERA 2nd arb ($ 5.35 m)
2024 – 22G (21GS) 4.53 ERA 3rd arb ($ 7.5 m)
His 2023 ERA is 4.04 because he played 22 games in a bullpen where Pivetta was good.
Pivetta could make more money as a No. 4 in 2025 than Houck and Crawford combined.
Pivetta doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox in 2025, they need another solid №3 and an ace or solid №2.
Yeah, they really need an ace or a solid #2. But who are the aces who are (or might be) available? Burnes, Cole, Fried, Snell? The problem in each case isn’t their talent. Burnes has a 3.01 ERA and the #2 WAR over the last four years. Cole a 3.18 ERA and +14.7 WAR. Fried a 2.91 ERA and +13.0 WAR. Snell a 3.22 ERA and +12.1 WAR. They are four of the top 20 pitchers by ERA over that span, all legit aces.
But their health? Fried was injured last year, injured this year, and has a 4.96 ERA since his return from the DL. Snell has topped 130 innings just twice in his ML career, and this year won’t be a third time. His 3.56 ERA in a pitcher-friendly park isn’t all that exciting either. Cole spent half the season on the DL with an elbow strain, and his velocity is still down two ticks from where it was in 2022. Nor does the 3.86 ERA scream “ace”. I’m guessing he isn’t far from needing TJS.
And Burnes? The man has been a rock his entire career, but last year and this are a clear step down from what he was doing in 2021-2022. And for those who noted Giolito’s second half struggles last year and saw signs of an injury in that, Burnes has a 6.40 ERA over his last six starts.
I’d love any of those four on a three-year deal, but people are tossing around $280M for Burnes, $200M+ for Cole and Snell, and something close to that for Fried. We need pitchers who can give us 6 IP per start, 180 IP per year, which isn’t Fried, isn’t Snell, and hasn’t been Cole this year. Burnes still seems to be good for that, but for *8* more years?
Which of these guys would you try to sign and what would you offer them? As long as the price tag is $200M++, I have strong misgivings.
As for Pivetta… It’s silly to compare a free agent contract to guys in their first year of arbitration (Houck) or making the major league minimum (Crawford). The only way Houck’s earnings could possibly match Pivetta’s next year would be if he were to sign a long-term contract — which I believe ought to be one of the Red Sox off-season priorities. Baseball’s economics are all out of whack, with 2/3 of the talent in the majors not having enough service time to qualify for FA and thus badly underpaid.
Pivetta is one of just 68 pitchers in the majors with 250+ innings over the last two years. By virtue of that ALONE he is a “mid rotation starter”, or the equivalent, and his 4.26 ERA over that span ranks #48.
If you want to look at just his innings as a starter, ignoring the strong run in a long relief role, there are just 125 pitchers who have 160+ innings as a starter *combined* for 2023-2024. Pivetta’s 37 GS (#95), 198 IP (#92), and 4.63 ERA (#96) all rank decently well. But I believe he deserves some credit for his bullpen work as well.
You don’t sign Pivetta to lead the rotation and dominate games, because he isn’t going to do that. But you might sign Pivetta because he is #58 in the majors in innings pitched over the last two years, and #25 over the last four years. Do we have enough quality arms on the roster to afford to give up those innings?
You don’t sign Pivetta to lead the rotation and dominate games, because he isn’t going to do that. But you might sign Pivetta because he is #58 in the majors in innings pitched over the last two years, and #25 over the last four years.
=======================
You make sense. Seems like the logic used to sign Giolito. I wonder where Giolito ranked before they signed him.
tff17
I think a package could be put together for a #2/3 starting pitcher with Abreu as the headliner plus Valdez and a couple of top 20 prospects.
The Red Sox don’t necessarily have to chase an ace next offseason.
All they need is No. 2 and No. 3 – this will be a significant improvement compared to 2024.
Complement the existing rotation with Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and depth of Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, W. Gonzalez.
Boston already has Bello and Giolito under contract, so giving Pivetta another 10+ million a year as the No. 4 pitcher doesn’t make sense.
And this money is better spent on No. 2.
After this season, 16 m Jansen, 7.5 m Martin, 17 m Sale, 6 m O’neil, 7.5 m Pivetta, 4 m Turner are off the books – that’s 58 million, which can be spent on starting pitcher No. 2, second catcher, 4- th outfielder, closer, good left-handed reliever
@suit, Giolito had been one of the more durable pitchers in the league.
I agree, that could be a sensible path. Trading for a younger arm (and perhaps extending them) works better than signing a 30 year old pitcher to an 8 year deal. Tough to comment on specifics, though, as it all depends on how other teams value the talent you are offering. I would be very reluctant to trade Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, or Teel at this time.
Wouldn’t be totally opposed to trading Casas in the right deal. Devers would be better at 1B defensively than he is at 3B.
tff17
Please understand my logic correctly.
We’ve all seen the improvement this season from pitchers like Houck and Crawford in the first half and Bello in the second half.
For example, the Red Sox add a #2 free agent, #3 in a deal, Houck looks like #2, Bello looks like #3 in potential and is only 25 years old, Crawford looks like #3/4 solid plus Giolito in #3 potential and depth Criswell , Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, so Pivetta is the odd one out here as #4 for 10+ million.
The Red Sox had no starting pitching depth in 2024 at Triple-A.
in 2025 – these are Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, W. Gonzalez
I’m not convinced that Devers would be any better defensively at 1B. I’m not sure he can handle bad throws.
tff – I never believe in doing anything halfway, that just leaves a team in purgatory …. hard to achieve anything that way.
I said at the trade deadline the lack of significant acquisitions would bring down the team emotionally. It would show a lack of faith in the team, just like the 2022 and 2023 trade deadlines, and cause a similar second half collapse. And here we are with Duran/Abreu/Yoshida being the only guys still giving it their all. Four straight years of August collapses, not a coincidence.
Interestingly back in June MLBTR had Pivetta ranked as the 4th-best free agent pitcher. Since then his performance has gone downward, and after nice progress last year he’s now back to the same 4.50 ERA guy he was back in 2021 and 2022. I’ve been one of his biggest supporters since Day One, but now at his age I don’t see him ever being better than a #4 SP.
I’d still like to have him on the team because he’s always capable of a dozen great starts each year, but I can’t picture the Sox giving him fair market value.
Agree with you on Burnes, he seems like the potential is there for a big decline and since Sox ownership has stated they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026 it doesn’t make much sense to overpay for him this winter. I’d rather they go after Sasaki if they are gonna spend big, but again that’s a huge “if”.
I don’t really have an opinion on Cole because his health situation is kinda murky.
bogie – I think Pivetta’s ability to pitch effectively as a starter or reliever is actually a huge benefit. Next year the Sox could conceivably begin the season with Houck/Crawford/Bello/Paxton/Pivetta as their starting rotation and then when Gio and Hill join the Red Sox midseason and Paxton gets injured, Pivetta can get moved back to the pen.
Because you just know Paxton and Hill will be with the Red Sox again next season.
tff – Sasaki is the only pitcher I’d go big after, because he’d still be in his prime when the Sox plan to compete in 2026 or later.
tff – Great post all around! Yes Pivetta has value and is worth a #3 SP salary even if he’s no better than a #4.
And you reminded me of all the times some people here, especially a certain person who I have thankfully muted, would constantly compare the salaries of free agents with the salaries of players under team control. They would calculate salary per 1 WAR for each player and come to the ridiculous conclusion that for instance Verdugo/Wong/Downs was a better bargain than Mookie.
Free agent contracts should NEVER be compared to team control contracts.
Fever Pitch Guy
I hope that Breslow as GM makes the right decisions starting in 2024 and we see moves from him that will improve the 2024 team and the Red Sox will be able to compete for the playoffs, and not for a wild card.
Because spending $200+ million for the third year in a row and not making the expanded playoffs is unacceptable for a franchise like the Red Sox.
Although there is still a chance to make the playoffs this season, I have little confidence in Cora’s decision-making in key matches.
Fever Pitch Guy
I think Breslow could have done better at the deadline than Garcia, Sims, Pexton and it wouldn’t have cost Anthony, Teal, Mayer, Campbell.
Honestly, I thought Breslow would pull off a better deal with York as the headliner.
Fever Pitch Guy
It’s completely stupid to compare a generational player like Betts to Verdugo, Wong, Downs.
I’m afraid the Red Sox trading Duran would be the biggest foolish thing ever, even though they need top-line starting pitching.
Even with a slight regression on offense and defense in 2025, Duran could easily be a 4-5 WAR player, the kind of star player the Red Sox are sorely missing.
I think if Abreu was at least in the .700 OPS range against left-handed pitchers he would be a star full-time player for the Red Sox.
But with Anthony knocking on the Major League door, I see Abreu as the headliner in a pitcher deal.
For example, with Seattle.
They need a left-handed outfielder, we need a starting pitcher.
I think Wu would fit in the right deal, but only if Duran, Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell are missing – they should be untouchable in 2025 and beyond
I thought that Yorke for Priester was straight up fair, and I’m not super high on Priester… Yorke has shown flashes of talent, but still looks more like a bench player or second division starter than somebody you want holding down the fort for a long time.
tff17
I thought that Yorke for Priester was straight up fair, and I’m not super high on Priester… Yorke has shown flashes of talent, but still looks more like a bench player or second division starter than somebody you want holding down the fort for a long time.
___________________________________________________
I hope the pitching coaches tune Priester to be in the starting rotation in 2025 and beyond, because York looks decent in Triple A, but with Campbell on the horizon, it’s unlikely York is the long-term answer at second base.
The Steamer projections for Yorke are hardly the final word. They aren’t even the best of the projection systems IMHO, as they tend to overrate prospects a bit. But they currently project .241/.305/.352 for Yorke, which is underwhelming.
Even Valdez projects to .229/301/.396, and I don’t think he is the answer either. Hoping Yorke beats the odds and succeeds in the majors, but (like Valdez) I suspect it is more likely that he is a AAAA player.
Suit- That’s exactly why we keep Pivetta….We are going to have a top 10 offense nxt year maybe better. What we need is the pitching taken away from Cora. I’d like to see Andrew Bailey control the pitching staff and Cora keep the lineup. We need 2 starters that can go 180 innings to protect what should be a good bullpen. A back end of Hendricks, Slaten, and Whitlock should put games away if healthy.
Houck, Crawford, and Bello should all be good for 180 next year. Gotta love Pivetta, too, for the innings.
Red Sox are covering this years salary!
While not exploding on the scene, I feel like Rafaela and Hamilton have both done enough to stay on the roster. I would love to see them have the starting SS & 2B jobs, but I know Story will take one of those when he gets back. I think getting regular at bats to Rafaela and Hamilton is key to developing them.
Hamilton was a nice surprise but the season wore him down and remember he came up only because of injuries. Despite his speed, he was never a top prospect. Funny how Bloom was so hated yet with Abreu, Pivetta and Hamilton, some trades worked out nicely. He just didn’t develop pitching. A big question now for Breslow is how he puts together a staff and the trade of Yorke in my view is only the beginning. When the Sox rebounded after the Bobby V and last place through 2014 era, they had a nucleus developing (JBJ, Mookie, etc.) and they traded for Sale. They need to properly assess their prospects (keep Devers, trade Moncada) and turn what you don’t keep into a frontline pitcher. At the same time, lock up Casas, trade Duran (or extend him too) and be smart on the free agent market (no more Panda type signings, etc.).
Dewey – As you know……After Bobby Valentine 2012, the Red Sox won a World Series in 2013!
Yes, Ben Cherington screwed up in 2014 and 2015 (deserved to get fired), because of Sandoval, Hanley, Craig, Rusney…… on the bright side Cherington did not trade, Betts, JBJ, Bogaerts, Devers,….
MLB – the 13 season was a once in a lifetime situation that involved a lot of luck. A lot of smaller moves that all seemed to work. I get mad at MLB with Rusney because without a grandfather clause he had no chance of coming back up. While not being a star, he could have been useful.
Dewey – $72,500,000 was very useful with no pressure to play in the MLB.
MLB has made a lot of stupid rules concerning players over the decades. The players union is also at fault for plenty too.
Hamilton is a big loss as part of the Sox running game.
Rafaela is not going to AAA. Story could play 2B when Rafaela is at SS and SS when Ceddane is in CF. Young players hit rough patches and Rafaela’s will pass.
Rsox – With Hamilton, it’s not much different than his brother Billy ….. neither one can steal first base.
David is batting just .200 with a .613 OPS in his last 30 games ….. and batting just .130 with a .461 OPS in his last 7 games. If he can’t use his speed for infield hits, it’s kinda useless sitting on the bench.
I agree Rafaela won’t get sent down because Cora loves shifting home around the field, but he should be sent down because clearly Fatso hasn’t been able to get Rafaela to stop swinging at everything.
He has just a .682 OPS in nearly 600 PA’s …. that’s not a patch, that’s a football field.
They aren’t brothers, brother.
Plz don’t try and read anything into fever’s post that wasn’t there. Enough of that in today’s society to go around as it is.
What was plain for 95% of the normal people to see right away, was Fever meant both David and Billy hamilton both have speed as their carrying factor, K more than someone who hasn’t got that much XBH ability, isn’t very selective at the plate and in David’s case? Hasn’t shown much in the way of defensive chops at any position yet.
Both Hamilton’s are/were known for base stealing, so think fever just laid it out like that and wish folks here would just cease with the always looking to add nefarious and hidden meanings into everything.
But it was there
if you had to explain what FPG meant in that much detail it wasn’t plain to see. And he literally wrote that David and Billy Hamilton were brothers.
Also correcting someone when they make a mistake no matter how obvious doesn’t speak to a larger nefarious purpose. Perhaps you should take your own advice and not read into things that aren’t there especially when it comes to people’s intentions.
john – Thank you. Yes some people always try to add a totally different meaning to words. I have online friends who call me brother all the time, should I get offended by thinking they accused my mother of having an affair with their father?
Too bad Josh Hamilton wasn’t a lightning-fast no-hit player, I could have referenced him instead. LOL!!
loin – Shall I make assumptions of your age based on the screen name you chose to use?
Don’t worry, I won’t report you.
you add a different meaning to what other people write all the time. Just admit you didn’t know they were related and move on
Your call dude
Sounds like a troll to me
Man, you’re brutal. For four years you left me alone until now? What changed? You thought what I did before this was trolling?
Oh, it’s getting heated. Better grab the popcorn
Will hendriks be new closer?
He’ll get his shot Spring ’25
Not to try to define a GM by a single year, but I’ve been happy with Breslow’s approach thus far. Hasn’t worked out well in some cases, but he seems to at least have a vision for where he wants to take the team. Did Bloom ever see the larger picture?
The top pitching prospects in the upper minors, aside from the injured Perales, are Fitts, Priester, and Sandlin. Whether or not you love them, they are the best we have here – and acquired for the very affordable price of Verdugo, Yorke, and Schreiber.
No blockbuster deals yet, but no blockbuster price tags either. Those are the ones that make or break a GM.
Sending Rafaela down is crazy talk. If Story does come back a big if then Rafaela gets to play the position he was born to play centerfield.
Offensively he’s going to have some issues he walks like 3% of the time but he still makes contact a lot he’s a #9 hitter but you don’t send him back to AAA. If he hits .250 with 10-15 homer pop and plays gold glove level defense then he’s a valuable player. The talk of sending him back to AAA is crazy and it’s not going to happen.
Bruin – What do you think of the situation with Mickey? The whole point of having him on the roster was to allow both Jansen and Wong to hit in the same games against LHP …. but obviously neither one can hit right now.
Wong is hitting just .237 with a .658 OPS in his last 30 games, and just .130 with a .341 OPS in his last 7 games.
Jansen is hitting just .190 with a .610 OPS in his last 15 games, and just .095 with a .269 OPS in his last 7 games.
The heck with waiting for Mickey to get his first MLB hit, send him down and bring up someone who can actually HELP the team.
I would like to see Boston bring up Campbell to take over 2nd. I think his bat plays and it would not shock me to handle big league pitching right out of the gate.
Mickey is a good story but Campbell can make a difference. I don’t think there’s a big roster crunch on the 40 man this year so that shouldn’t be a deterrent. He’s the best option to play and make a difference.
What is the story behind Mickey? The name did not ring a bell when he appeared in the line-up and each time he gets additional appearances without getting a hit I don’t understand why he has not been sent down.
Uncle – He has two parents that are Yankee fans and he grew up a Yankee fan in New Hampshire which is highly unusual. In fact he was named after Mickey Mantle.
They attend every game waiting for him to get his first MLB hit, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Thanks. I was curious about him from when I first saw his name. Feel bad for him having such struggles, but hopefully he can get moved down to the minors and find his swing.
After signing an 8 year extension, I’m pretty confident Rafaela will stay with the Red Sox.
Bringing back Martin for, say, 4-5 million wouldn’t be a terrible idea. As for Story, he was always supposed to be a bridge from Bogey to Mayer, who’s going to reach the majors by the end of next season. Freak shoulder injury shouldn’t be counted against him and we already knew about his ragged elbow when we signed him; a healthy 2025 can be at least expected at this point.
troy – I disagree on Martin. Sox ownership has said they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026, so there’s no real need for Martin with Liam assumed healthy and Whitlock probably returning to the pen.
Story’s health next year is anyone’s guess. He is due for a healthy season, I agree with you there. But even when he WAS healthy he couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. I say trade him and eat half his contract. Let Mayer and Campbell cover the middle infield next year.
I’ve expecting them to return Whitlock to the pen for three seasons. I don’t what the hell they’ll do in 2025 when he’s “healthy.”
Martin I’ll not push for bringing back, just that it wouldn’t be a huge expenditure for some stability.
We’ve not had a healthy Story in Boston, and I don’t know how well he’ll hit at this point. Still figure he’s better than Hamilton and am willing to see what he does before trading at the absolute low.
troy – I agree, Story is definitely better than Hamilton.
Story provides GG-caliber defense at both middle infield positions. The problem is, if they already have two offensive black holes in Rafaela & Wong/Jansen, can they afford a third black hole with Story? Time will tell.
Fever – Story GG Defense? You drinking tonight or what?
Story HAS NEVER BEEN A GOLD GLOVE DEFENDER!!!
From age 23-26 he played full seasons and was a solid defender making 8 to 13 errors per year. So he’s better than Devers and worse than Bogaerts. Clearly, he’s no Campbell on defense AND he can’t hit whereas Campbell has rocked in AAA just a year after being drafted. That’s a stud and the name Story needs to be left in cold storage because you can’t give him away and you can’t play him.
Troll, Story was the best second baseman in the league in the limited time he was healthy there. As for Martin, if he wants to return I’d sign him in a heartbeat and if the team flounders next year, trade him at the deadline, something they couldn’t do this season.
Dewey – I only objected to the false statement about Story being a GG. Wanted the record to be correct not a fabrication. Too much of that going around the site lately.
I think it’s time they bite the bullet and trade Story, like they did with Sale. Except this time get a pitching prospect back.
He has played in 94,43, and 8 games for the Sox. If he’s still on the Sox next year, expect yet another lengthy IL stint. Let’s shed the team of Yoshida and Story and make room for the new kids.
Who’s going to trade for Story? The Red Sox would have to eat a ton of that contract no one is trading for Story and certainly not going to get a prospect back. The Red Sox are stuck with Story.
The same could have been said about Chris Sale last off season, and they traded him.
Roster spots on the 26man will be at a premium with all the young talent coming up. Out with the old and bad, in with the new.
Chris Sale and Trevor Story aren’t the same player. I have no horse in this race, but nobody is trading for Story.
As I said in my previous comment, the same exact thing could have (and was) said about Sale last year.
Sox eat the entire deal and get a mediocre prospect back. It happens all the time.
There is no way the Red Sox are going to eat anywhere near 77.5M to get rid of Story.
That worked great this year with Sale. He is having a Cy Young worthy year and we are paying for him to do it for another club. In his place we got a player who has been a bust so far. We do the same thing with Story and eat 75+ million for nothing and he will probably have the best few years of his career. Yoshida makes more sense but who will give up anything for him.
Uncle – Deja Vu all over again? Mookie almost won the MVP in 2020. Ownership loves to repeat their mistakes.
Sox ownership has said they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026
================
This is false. There is nothing to back this up.
If Rafaela goes to Worcester, then Breslow is going in the Harbor with the tea
Who writes this stuff? Ceddane is top 5 rookie of the year, he’s slumping right now but still gives you good glove defense.
There is plenty of excess fat on that roster to trim if they need a spot for Story. That’s just poor journalism.
Raefella is good but man has the AL ever had a poor rookie showing this year. None of these guys would even be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year if they played in the NL.
Cowser will win it in spite of a rather dismal batting average and a ton of whiffs.
let – I think it will be Abreu, who leads the league in rookie WAR by a mile (3.7)
Next highest position player is Hamilton at 2.5
WAR is a contrived estimate that indicates where in the order a player hits not how good they are or even how much they contribute to winning.
As a platoon player, Abreu has been a nice surprise but had he batted last every day because he had a REAL manager, his numbers wouldn’t even be in the discussion for ROY.
Skubal for ROTY?
If only he had about 370 less innings pitched prior to this season he would be a slam dunk!!
Doh! Blame it on age, but I think I got him confused with Skenes. They all look so young these days.
tff – I think most of us didn’t respond because we figured you had to be talking about Record Of The Year.
After all, he is in Motown ;O)
Take pity on the old guy!!!
“…or perhaps be bumped into a utility role since he’s also a capable outfielder.”
Very strange of the author to insinuate that Rafaela is an infielder first (“also”) and that he’s only “capable” in the outfield. Pretty much everyone knows his fielding in Center is at least very good if not better, and he’s definitely an OFer first and foremost. Infield is his “also”.
It’s apparent the writer isn’t all that up on Rafaela.
Neither are you, I guess
Rafaela from 5/25 thru 8/15 (268 PA):
.311/.347/.453 (120 wRC+)
swanzey – June ROM was Langford and July was Keith.
Rafaela is on the verge of repeating the year Casas had last year when he finished third for ROY.
Casas was 23 last year and Rafaela is 23 this year.
Casas hit .225 in the first half, .317 in the second half and .263 for the year
Rafaela hit .244 for the first half, is hitting .285 for the second half and .256 for the year (7 points lower with a month to go)
Casas in 2023 .263/.367/.490/.856
Rafaela in 2024 .256/.286/.399/.685 so far with 27 games left
Casas stole NO BASES as a power hitting 1B
Rafaela has stolen 17 bases as a speedy CF/SS
Casas hit 24 HRs last year. Rafaela has hit 13 with 27 games left.
Casas hit against both lefty and right handed pitchers just like Rafaela. Abreu is a platoon player so he should not be considered over full time players that contribute daily not just against righties.
.
Casas scored 66 runs and drove in 65
Rafaela has scored 64 and has driven in 61 with 27 games left batting out of the 9th hole thanks to the idiot Cora.
The key to both seasons is the slow start and the continual improvement throughout the year. Rafaela needs to keep it up one more month and should be the likely second place finisher behind Cowser (the guy drafted right after Marcelo Mayer in 2020 when Bloom screwed up).. Gunner Henderson and Tanner Bibee beat out Casas but his strong upward trend converted him to a potential all-star status. Rafaela has the potential to be the next guy to take that step whether he plays CF or RF where he should play so Duran can play CF.
This didn’t age well .154 ba and .154 obp in last 15 games how the hell do you go 15 games without walking no wonder he’s benched
Rafaela is a capabale outfielder? Lol come on Darragh..watch a few games he is arguably the best outfielder on the whole team and just happens to also play a decent shortstop…geez send him down? He is going to get rookie of the year votes…do your homework man thats lazy writing .
Agreed but.
He isn’t “arguably” the best outfielder on the team.
He IS the best outfielder on the team.
Dumb comment Duran second best mlb drs and rafella only 11
Hard to disagree with such a well worded argument.
So if I disagree, I’m a troll? You and acell think mis casas is on my side. I don’t even know the guy
It doesn’t matter how well it’s worded. The argument itself matters
Homie we go back a long way when you were purse and then pedroia before that your a good poster like tollfree
Pool – Great comment. The writer is an idiot. Maybe he should watch some of the games. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen in CF or RF.
At this point, Story needs to be released because he’s added no value so far and now there are viable alternatives that could help this team more now and in the future.
That or give him the Roy Hobbs treatment. Sit him and unless both Campbell and Rafaela run through the left field wall, make him sit and give him an at bat in late inning scenarios so Cora’s pets don’t get the late inning critical at bats. I trust a weak hitting Story more than the clowns Cora plays too much.
Story won’t be released because of his contract unfortunately. This is why I like to avoid long, expensive contracts for older free agents. I agree with you that building a good team is about acquiring talent, not about dollars spent.
I don’t see any chance of Story being traded until one of the kids is established at SS. Could be Mayer or Rafaela or Campbell, but they aren’t moving on until his replacement is in the majors and performing well.
2025 should be interesting. Can’t point to an established MI that I have huge confidence in, but at least there are some advanced prospects ready to compete for the jobs.
Story was a complete bust and one of the worst signings by Bloom. Three years of injuries and he was damaged goods before he got here. Bloom should have signed Boggaerts the year before he became a free agent and blew that and could have had him on a cheaper contract.
TFF17 – I have full confidence in both Campbell and Rafaela at SS. Look we put up with Devers so errors simply don’t matter until Devers goes to DH. Offense is all that matters. Rafaela had an excellent year learning how to adjust to MLB pitching changes as a season progresses and Campbell just looks like a stud offensive player and is better on defense than any of the other SSs in the system. I have confidence in both.
Second base is a different story. In fact, Story might be the best guy to place at 2B first to see if he can hit now. If not, then Sogard and Grissom can be tried and even a healthy Mayer is a possibility. There is no good answer at 2B like at SS but one of the four could work out..
All – The Story move by Bloom in retrospect was far worse than it appeared at the time. The legend of Mayer was so over hyped at that point that Story was to be a stop gap until the great Mayer. Hype is such a dangerous component of making moves. Had Bloom taken Cowser instead of Mayer the Story move might not have happened and Bogaerts might have gotten his addition $10MM per year he was looking for. That would have been a $30MM cost over 3 years instead of the $23.3 for 6 years ($140MM). That would have saved the team $110MM which could have been spent on SPs. Bloom didn’t believe in DD’s farm players so he made bad choices. Yoshida falls into the same category. Do you spend $18MM a year for Yoshida if you understood how good Duran, Rafaela and even Abreu are? NOPE. There is another $90MM saved!! Bloom’s mistakes were so extensive because he didn’t understand how to do his job. He was trying to prove his worth compared to one of the greatest GMs of all time. And he took a small market concept and tried to make it work in Boston where big market thinking had change the success rate of the organization over the previous 15 years.
You are right Story and Yoshida can’t be released and Devers’ money can’t be reduced or he can’t do what’s best for the team by moving to DH. Those are facts that will plague the organization for years and the front office and ownership will need to work around them since they won’t fix them.
Your approach of staying positive is a good one. I’m too pragmatic to do that. I still remember the pain of losing Mookie as if it happened yesterday so I am less forgiving of Bloom’s mistakes. I’ve watched the Chicago Bears dismantle a dynasty, the Chicago Bulls and now both the Red Sox and Patriots. I’m tired of watching front offices and owners destroy teams because they are inept at running their companies. It will probably take you several more destructive actions before your optimism subsides like mine has. Until then, keep believing and hoping because it’s good for people to have hope whether it’s well founded or not..
I thought 6 years was too much for Story and that he would likely block Mayer and Yorke. I know you can’t count on prospects to succeed, but Mayer and Yorke were first round picks and I think they should have been part of the plan. I guess signing Story did save the Red Sox from making a worse deal with Bogaerts.
KD17 has zero ability to evaluate talent at any level. He keeps bashing Mayer for literally no reason other than bloom drafted him. It’s pathetic.
Doubt it makes any difference to Mayer what you, I, or TF thinks. Doubt it makes any difference to the Red Sox either.
Mayer will get his chance soon enough, and if he performs then he gets a job either here oe elsewhere.
It doesn’t but it also doesn’t change the fact that it’s obnoxious and keeps from people having an actual discuss.
All – Bogey had three years left. He wanted $30MM and was making $20MM. His deal could have been a $10MM bump for 3 years!! Then, renegotiate with him at that point or play Campbell now that we know how much better he is than Mayer. Taking HS players like Bloom did was dumb. Cowser has proven that.from the 2021 draft and the 2020 draft was very weak and Yorke was a HS 2B. Jordan Westburg got picked by BAL in the second round as an excellent SS who was going to play 2B or 3B in the Oriole organization. He’s in his second year and Yorke is still floundering in the minors as a first round pick!. A quality first pick should be in the majors this many years after they are drafted. That’s why a guy like Bloom should have picked all colleges players. He was hired to destroy the 2018 team and to not have a huge “bad period” in Boston so he needed young players arriving in the majors sooner rather than later. He really screwed up no matter how you slice his decisions. They were all bad.
Think back to Bloom, did he ever disclose a plan? You are right he should have had one and then we would have known about the tear down of the 2018 team and his rebuilding processes. That’s when taking HS players would have come out as a mistake but if you keep your plans to yourself, smarter people can’t question what you are doing.
The Bogaerts deal in SD was an anomaly caused by Bloom dumping players. DD had his contract all set. If Bogey wanted $10MM per year for 3 years, he would have given it to him knowing Bogey took less than market value on his previous contract. Bogey was never the bad guy in all this but people talk like he was greedy. Like Mookie, he just wanted fair market price. Story got above market value and Bogey got below and then got tossed out with the trash after being an icon for a decade. Bogey and Mookie will always be far superior players to Devers. They played defense and had far more baseball skills than Devers. It’s sad we ended up with the selfish slug and got rid of the franchise player and a perennial all-star in Bogey.
I’m skeptical that $90M/3yrs would have kept Bogaerts in Boston, but I agree that would have been great if it had been possible. Even adding a fourth year or fifth year at that rate would have been fine.
I was hearing rumblings about being over $100M off, though, and the deal you describe would have been much closer than that.
TFF17 – You may be right but he did ask for it so I assumed that’s what he wanted. I know he would have liked to have stayed in Boston for his whole career but delaying the final decision while making at true $30MM per year might have worked because he wasn’t losing his chance to stay in Boston, he was just getting a chance to prove he wasn’t too old to stay in Boston 3 years later but you might be right.
Also, tell Acell10 that I don’t not like Mayer because he’s a Bloom choice I have simply documented why he has been a huge disappointment. Cowser is a perfect example of a better player going after Mayer was taken. That’s irrefutable based on the facts. Maybe some day Mayer will be better but it’s 3 years later and their comparison isn’t close.
In 1998 Peyton Manning was the first pick and many argued it should have been Ryan Leaf. He went second and failed miserably. If you think back to the 2021 draft, things fell out funny because the Pirates saved some money and took Henry Davis who shot through their system as a College catcher. He was so good at hitting they converted him to the outfield because they had better catchers defensively but they loved his hitting. Jack Leiter was considered the most talented player in the draft and was expected to be picked first but he would have broke the bank in Pittsburgh so they saved money for later rounds. Leiter went to Texas and frankly has been a disappointment just like Mayer. Many thought Kumar Rocker was the second most talented player but Detroit like Pittsburgh went the cheap route and and took a HS kid named Jackson Jobe for his cheaper price and big arm. Mayer who was considered either the 3rd best and by some the 2nd best player with lots of hype and a high price fell to Bloom who took him during a time when Bloom was dismantling the Red Sox 2018 roster. Rather than reducing the time it would take to rebuild he chose a HS SS from his favorite part of the country. The hype suggested he would make it to the MLB quickly. The other hyped HS shortstop was Jordan Lawler from Texas. He went 6th and Kumar fell to 8th where the Mets took him and couldn’t sign him because like a few others in the top 8 thought he deserved more money than he was really worth (Mayer being one of them). All this leads to performance.
In 2021 26 games at ROK ball and only hit .275. That’s not impressive as the kid hyped as the best HS player in the draft that wasn’t a pitcher. So in 2022 he started at A ball and played 66 games there and again was NOT great he was above average at stealing and carried a high OPS mostly because he had a good average and it’s counted twice in OPS. His biggest strength was walking!! His defense was bad making 10 errors for a .956 fielding percentage. He got promoted to HI-A for just 25 games where he hit .265 as a 19 year old. He was younger than many but .265 is very mediocre for the fourth pick in the draft. This is not being said because of Bloom, this is a fact. His performance was well beneath what should be expected from the top HS player in the draft.
Mayer turned 20 five month prior to the 2023 season so technically he was 20.5 throughout the 2023 season but considered just a 20 year old. Because he failed badly in 2022 at Hi-A they sent him back. Some say his injury in 2022 caused the lack of performance and others noticed he simply wasn’t as good as expected. Hi-A in 2023 led to a higher average (.290) that then flowed through to make his OBP, SLG and OPS all higher (OPS gain 2 times the higher average). So Boston couldn’t wait any longer without raising suspicions about his real skill level so they promoted him to AA. Once again, he got injured and people allowed that to be a crutch by rationalizing why his numbers were .189/.254/.355/.609. Since he sustained injuries multiple times many argued the injuries were reflected in the numbers while others believed the injuries were an excuse for the below expected performance. You can make the call on which it was but the fact remains by the end of 2023 his numbers were significantly below what was expected as the best HS player in the 2021 draft.
In 2024 Mayer was sent back to Portland to see if he could master AA pitching and improve his defense. The good news is that Mayer finally put up a .300 season in 77 games, the bad news is he made 10 errors in even less total chances than he did the previous year. Now we have established a trend of bad defense. No Devers bad but not league average fielding. The first round pick has performed below league average on defense while in the minors. That to me does not bode well because he’s playing next to the worst 3B in baseball history.
This explanation is all about the numbers and the facts. It’s not my opinion he made 20 errors in 240 total chances, it’s a fact. His .264 average 120 games at AA is a fact, his .280 average in 60 games at Hi-A is a fact, his .286 average at A ball in 66 games is a fact and his .275 average at ROK in 26 games is a fact. They have nothing to do with Bloom they are his performance history and it is severely lacking for the best HS player in the 2021 draft.
Kristian Campbell was NOT a super hyped player in 2023 when he was drafted out of the Georgia Institute of Technology. He was just a very talented SS who had an outstanding year in 2023 before being drafted by Boston.
Like Teel, Bloom did make some better picks. This one may be his best.
He played 8 games at ROK and hit .347
He played 54 games at Hi-A and hit 297
He played 56 games at AA and hit .362
He played 8 games so far at AAA and has hit .303
His lowest OPS has been .940 and the other 3 are over 1.0
At SS he’s made 1 error in 81 total chances but has played all outfield and infield positions except 1B and has 4 errors in 187 total chances. Again, this is totally performance numbers.
This compares closer to Mookie than it does to Mayer.
That’s why Campbell to me is the future SS in Boston. I don’t expect the front office or Cora to agree but the facts are the facts and that’s why I support the players I support.
tell me yourself. these aren’t facts. You’re expressing your opinion and at best cherry picking stats to try to support your short sighted and slanted argument.
Mookie had an incredibly low strikeout rate in addition to the great positive numbers. Campbell is as close to him as it gets, but Mookie was still a clear step better.
Agreed that Campbell is likely to be the better offensive player than Mayer. Less certain where Anthony ranks, as that kid has huge talent.
TFF17 – Mookie is a top 5 player most years. My point was only that Campbell far more resembles Mookie than Mayer but I agree he is not at Mookie’s level. There are very few that are. Trout was, Judge is and there are lots trying to be. Thanks to his pitching and hitting, Ohtani may be a step up from Mookie but that puts him in rare air. The word Unicorn fits.
What stats suggest Mayer is a better defensive player than Campbell? I am very confused why ANYONE considers his talent being so radically different than his actual performance. Nobody made Mayer make the errors, he simply does. Nobody prevents Campbell from making the errors, he simply doesn’t make them.
If you have any and I mean any performance statistics that show Mayer to be a good fielder please present them. I can’t find them in any real statistics collected by minor league baseball.
I am a huge fan of Anthony and have been since his breakout at Hi-A last year. As a second round pick in 2022 born in 2004 his performance since Hi-A puts him in rare air like Campbell. Now in AAA he started slowly then exploded to a current .344 average. My one concern is why did he stop stealing bases but hopefully that will come. His 8 errors in 339 chances makes him a significantly better defender than Mayer but not quite at Campbell’s level.
All that really matters is that Boston now has a future left fielder in Anthony (a power hitter with growing power and very young), Duran (a speedster who has improved his defense for CF) and Rafaela (another speedster who is a highlight reel waiting to happen on defense and an improving hitter who is still young as well). That means the DH spot, if not occupied by Devers as it should be, can be occupied by many different players and there is a surplus of talent to sit on the bench for depth. Yoshida, Abreu, Story (unless he plays 2B) and O’Neill all qualify to play DH if Devers doesn’t. Plenty of days off with that much depth so 2025 should have less negative impact than it had in 2024 from injuries even if all of the bench guys don’t resign.
The team will improve to the point that the two glaring weaknesses of Cora and Devers at 3B will be the biggest part of the problem of winning another ring.
I don’t have a good read on minor league defense. It all comes down to scouting reports and reputation, and those can be (and are) hyped.
Errors just don’t tell us much. A weak defender who doesn’t get to many balls may have a lower error rate than a strong defender who tries to make difficult plays and sometimes messes them up. Devers has only two more errors than Ramirez, for example, yet he has 8 fewer converted Outs Above Average.. Many 3B have more errors than Devers, yet he may be the weakest defender with qualifying innings at the position. (His competition is Urias and Morel, both with fewer innings.)
So if errors don’t tell us the story in the majors, they aren’t going to tell us the story in the minors. I totally agree that Campbell’s clean defense is encouraging, but I don’t take it as proof that he is better defensively than Mayer. For that we need either a good scouting report or the richer data that is available for major leaguers.
DH is blocked for three more years. They can potentially trade/release Yoshida, but $18M/year is an awful lot for somebody who is charitably comparable to Martinez or Soler at $12M. My guess is that Devers is stuck at 3b for now unless his defense or health deteriorates further from here.
That was an excellent response and so true.
TFF17 – I have no idea if you played or not but my experience as a former player is that guys don’t simply not have range. The difference isn’t like one guy can get to balls 40 feet away and the other guy can only get to balls 20 feet away. The guy who can only get 20 feet ends his career before varsity baseball in HS unless he is simply a monster who clubs long home runs.
Take Ryne Sandberg and Joe Morgan. Two HOFers. Everyone always suggested Sandberg’s range was not enough so Morgan was the better fielder. Sandberg played 16 seasons at 2B and won 9 straight GG from 1983 to 1991.
His fielding % was .989 over 16 seasons. His dWAR was 13.5 and he stole 344 bases so he had excellent speed.
Joe Morgan played 22 years from 1963 to 1984. His fielding percentage was .981 so he made 244 errors on 12953 total chances. Sandberg made 109 errors on 10279 total chances.
When you say errors don’t tell us much I completely disagree. The defensive metrics over emphasize ESTIMATE range and discount the most important part of the game, successfully fielding the ball and accurately throwing the ball so the TOTAL CHANCE is an out.
Here is the math that Metrics People DON”T UNDERSTAND or minimize because they are obsesses with insignificant data like range. Let me preface this with one other factor that metrics can’t measure. As a former SS, I anticipated the ball being hit to specific locations based on the type of pitch that was being thrown. So throw a curve ball to a right handed batter with the catcher holding the glove inside and as I got up on my toes and started moving in toward the batter so there was no inertia I angled toward the right depending on how good the pitchers curve ball was. If the target was on the outside corner then I moved to my left to cover the ground ball up the middle. My range was a combination of my quickness, my intelligence and luck. The probabilities were in my favor but the hitter didn’t always cooperate. The factors I just mentioned are not reflected in the metrics. It’s a simple straight line analysis of starting and ending point from the time the pitch is thrown. Therefore, if you guess right you are closer to the ball when you field it and throw out the runner and your range is diminished despite you being successful and a better defender who reads the situation better than the next guy. That is counter intuitive thinking built into the design of the defensive metric like so many other things.
So getting back to Sandberg and Morgan. If Sandberg had the same number of Total Chances as Morgen he would have made 142 errors. That is 102 less than Morgan. That means 102 less runners would have been safe at first base. So how can a formula suggest that Morgan was the better defender? The argument you have made like many others is that I’d rather have a guy who gets to more balls than a guy who makes less errors. Think about how faulty that logic is.
Sandberg averaged 642 total chances per year and Morgan averaged 589!! If Morgan distance to the ground balls was so much farther than Sandberg then the plays that exceeded Sandberg’s alleged range would all be bonus balls played by Morgan and that means those errors don’t count in your mind because Sandberg didn’t get to those balls. Or is your logic that for every ball he gets beyond Sandberg’s range he gets to subtract an error? Should all those plays be considered hits so there is no penalty for expanding your range?
This is where metric people and baseball people diverge in their logic. If a player exceeds the “normal” range for that position and they make a play on the ball and are unsuccessful metrics people think that’s not a negative and baseball people consider it a negative. Why? Because the distance you move to get to the ball has NOTHING to do with ability to field. If you field .950 on balls hit to you there is no reason to expect you would do any better on a ball outside of what is deemed normal range, you are a .950 fielder. You hurt the team if the team has a .951 or higher fielder sitting so you and your longer range can make errors on more balls that the other player won’t touch. Why? Because it’s a faulty assumption that the distance to the ball at the moment the pitcher throws the ball is a reflection of good baseball acumen. It’s nothing more than a reflection of a defensive strategy set for by the team and the inaccuracies of the positioning parameters set forth by the metrics team.
So, if Sandberg didn’t use his huge baseball knowledge to reduce the distance to the ball he would still be getting the same outs but having to run farther to make it happen. Do any of those parameters reflect fielding ability? NO they reflect baseball acumen. So the smart player is penalized and the incredibly dumb player like Devers is rewarded. His length to the ball is extraordinarily high because he does NOT use proper technique in his pre-pitch routine, he has no clue whether he can effectively make a play on the ball with his .930 fielding capabilities and he could care less if the SS can make the play routinely to get the out, which is the goal for every ball hit. The metric rewards the dumb players or maybe it’s just players that make dumb choices which are generated from inappropriate incentives. See Devers may be doing the smart thing when he makes poor choices because it helps his defensive metrics despite the pitchers suffering from his extended range and extremely low success rate on the plays. He lets the ball go to the SS and an out is far more likely and the pitcher is better off and the team is better off. Like so many things about Dever, it’s his selfishness that prevents him from laying off the routine ball to the SS and taking a seat as DH because his defense is the worst in history.
So Sandberg’s 9 gold gloves were unfairly given to him, he earned them by having a pre-pitch philosophy that shortened the distance to the grounder thus reducing his range but ensuring an extremely high success rate on defense. The game is supposed to be about winning and what a player does to make that happen. Running farther for a ball doesn’t create success it simply creates an illusion that the team is better off having a guy with range rather than a success rate in fielding which is what the fielding percentage reflects.
One last point. The Clint Eastwood movie was a prime example of why scouting reports are less reliable than stats about fielding. Two scouts can watch the same player and draw two completely different conclusions. One may have been told to provide a better report than actual so the team can move the player through the system faster as part of their marketing plan for the player. Does the name Jeter Downs ring a bell. Friedman used the technique to dupe Bloom. You read the crap coming from Bruin1012. There is no easier way to see the lies than to read what he says and then look at the numbers. Numbers don’t lie as he suggests. They reflect what has happened to date. It’s like watching a football combine and having a naive fan assume the most physically gifted is the best player. That seldom happens. Once the visual bias happens, it’s very hard to reverse the prejudice built in to all analyses of the player. I get cheap shots from fans when their stats don’t match their words. I shake it off as pure ignorance because I know a .950 fielding percentage reflects the defensive hand/eye coordination of the player, his arm strength and his accuracy. I don’t give a damn about how far he can run because his pre-pitch preparation isn’t included in the metric estimate so the data is meaningless and shouldn’t be forced into the evaluation of the player’s defense like it is with the new metrics designed by non baseball players.
TFF17 – You just described a team with hand-cuffs on because a horrible GM made terrible decisions and painted the organization into a corner. I don’t expect Yoshida, Story or Devers to be traded because you would either have to pay huge sums to buy down the contracts and nobody is as dumb as Bloom when it comes to taking on bad contracts.
Breslow must make the best of a horrible situation. Frankly, if my job security was based on winning, I’d put Devers at DH, and trade both Yoshida and Story by seeding the deals with some of the other crap Bloom drafted like Mayer. Give them someone over hyped with Yoshida or Story so you don’t have to give up payroll by doing a buy down. The farm is filled with pretenders that could be used like DD used Moncada, Espinoza and Kopech. Heck, $23.3MM and $18MM is $41.3MM additional dollars that could be used in 2025 if Breslow got clever at dumping salary and over hyped farm players. Then Devers would have no excuse. Remember, since Devers took over 3B in 2017 he has made 139 errors that have counted and has misplayed roughly 400 balls with 261 of them not counting as errors. Referencing back to our Sandberg discussion he made 109 in twice as many season with more Total Chances per year. The black hole at 3B has been enormous cross to bear for the Red Sox. People cheat to lower the number in hopes of obscuring the obvious. Some fools even claim he’s improving which is far, far from the truth since accounting for errors has been re-defined for Devers. It’s truly a mockery to watch how his fielding is recorded these days. Devers is not stuck at 3B, he is sticking to 3B by choice with total disregard for the team.
You are right there are 3 albatross contracts that are not likely to go away and will work against the organization if they are trying to win another ring. I’m not convinced that is their goal these days, it seems like making money for corporate is the real goal and spinning public opinion in favor of the organizations actions. I don’t think it’s working but that does seem to be the goal.
The way errors are assessed is a joke for all teams, and has been for decades. You are focused on Devers, but it is across the majors. That play yesterday (?) to the second baseman where Romy Gonzalez was running was somehow counted as a double for Duran?!? Devers wasn’t anywhere close to that one, so you can’t blame it on him.
All that really matters is whether the balls are converted into outs or not. And that’s what the more modern defensive metrics assess. None of them are perfect, but they’ll all tell you that Devers is one of the weakest defensive 3B in the majors. Has been since 2020. Anybody weaker doesn’t last long at the position.
TFF17 – I agree that score keeping is being controlled by the people running the league. The process has changed over the years. in the old days, if Koufax or Gibson was pitching and a ball was missed regardless of it’s exit velocity the ball was a hit UNLESS the player that missed it was legendary.
Today, there are constant problems with judgment and it appears the word to score keepers is to favor the bigger star. If Gonzales misses the same ball Devers misses one is a hit and one is an error. If Kershaw is pitching and a “normal” player not named Mookie, Freddie or Ohtani miss the ball, it’s an error.
Devers is considered one of the select players who gets calls they shouldn’t get and you are completely correct that there are plenty around the league that get similar or even better treatment than Devers. That’s why ERAs and WHIPs keep rising. Honestly, those idiot fans from 1990 who had no clue that steroids were not impacting HRs the juice in the ball was they need to resurface and complain to Congress that defensive stats are being tampered with. The whole reason HRs jumped from the juice in the baseball was at least somewhat more fair because all the players used the same baseballs and had the same chance to take advantage of the juice. The not counting errors accurately isn’t being applied as evenly as the treatment of increasing homers in the 1990s. Maybe it’s time to make an issue of it.
FYI…baseball reference does try to deal with it if you are willing to dig out daily stats. A ball that is hit to Devers and it bounces off his glove out of play and the runner is safe is now called a hit to 3B. That means the 3B had a play on it but he failed but we don’t want to call it an error. In 2023 Devers had 14 errors and an additional 38 hits to 3B. During the dead ball era players did record 50 errors in a season due to the soft baseball and rough fields. Once the live ball era started nobody has made errors at the rate Devers does. He should have close to 400 errors rather than 139 in less than 8 seasons. We now get to call them mishaps or mishandled plays rather than errors. Can you imagine how significantly the pitchers numbers would improve if things were recorded properly? Maybe fans would focus less on the pitching and more on the defense if the facts were understood instead of covered up.
You are so right when you wrote “all that matters is whether the balls are converted into outs”. 400 times since 2017 they haven’t been, 139 counted as errors but more importantly how many games have been lost because of the mishaps? That’s what ownership and the front office should care about not the feelings of ONE individual who is killing the team’s chances of winning.
You used to be pretty quiet and now you call anyone who disagrees s troll
When you called out my name, that was obnoxious. I never did anything to you
That’s what debate is about.
Once again Atlanta took the Red Sox to the cleaners on a trade. I remember the Neff Reardon trade where we received Murphy a pitcher who never made it out of Double AA. I remember the Renteria trade in 2005 where we received Andy Marte a power hitting 3rd baseman who was another bust and now we have Vaughn who cannot make it out of Triple AAA. Atlanta always gets the better of the Red Sox in trades. Sale is leading the National League in wins and strikeouts too.
Al – It’s all payback for the Red Sox letting Esasky sign with the Braves.
I remember the season he had in 1989 and we let him go after that.
Someone get a fork and put it in this team. They are done! Why are our pitchers taken out consistently after the 5th inning? This will be the 3rd year that the Red Sox missed the playoffs.
Al – Cooper was pulled after FOUR PERFECT INNINGS ON ONLY 52 PITCHES!!!
There’s a reason why Cora’s teams have had losing records in August for FOUR CONSECUTIVE YEARS!!!
The Red Sox still could make the postseason as the Twins, Royals and Mariners have all been sucking …. but it won’t happen if Cora keeps managing the way he has been.
A lot of things would have to go right, such as Devers getting healthy and Casas getting his head straight and Rafaela growing the hell up among other things. But yeah, not looking good right now. After next weekend the Sox schedule gets a lot harder than the other contenders.
Yeah, I don’t get why Criswell was pulled there. In his last two starts he faced 18 batters and was pulled after that. I don’t love that practice, but at least it makes some sense. This time he was pulled after 12 perfect?!? Unless there was an injury that I didn’t see, it makes no sense whatsoever. He’s just as good a pitcher as Hill and Kelly, even if he doesn’t throw hard.
They aren’t making the playoffs, but at least the rotation has settled down now that they are into the easy part of the schedule.
tff – There was no injury. There was no fatigue.
At first Cora responded by saying “The hope was for Criswell to get us as many outs as possible”.
But of course he lied, as always, and admitted as such by telling reporters on NESN that Criswell getting replaced by Hill after 4 innings was planned pre-game.
As long as the pitching staff continues to be managed according to pre-game analytics decisions, this franchise will continue to suffer unnecessary losses.
Analytics are only as good as the person using them. It’s just data, it doesn’t make decisions for you.
Personally would rather see Criswell targeting 5 IP if they have to make up their mind before seeing him throw. But allowing for in-game flexibility is best.
Probably losing the game regardless, as it is very tough to win with just 1 run scored. The current lineup is pretty weak.
TFF17 – In April of 2018 Cora sat Mookie on a week when the team had a rain out and two off days. When asked why he said it was on the schedule. That was the first day I started calling for Cora’s head.
As Fever was pointing out, he just does stupid things because he makes up his mind based on rules he learned from Hinch about how to be good a manager. He makes plans that make no sense. Look at his line-up today, he might as well have told Detroit they get today’s game. Every year he gives away one game in every series because he wants the scrubs to play because that’s his peer group.
At this time of the year when every game is critical you pitch the pitcher until his stuff isn’t good enough to continue. He used to do the same with Sale. He pulled him in 2018 in July with 12 Ks after 5 innings and incredible stuff. Why? It was his plan prior to the game. He should have been fired on the spot. Sale had a shot at Clemens 20Ks record and was leading in the Cy Young race at that time. He is a baseball moron. Seriously, as dumb as Devers appears by not knowing when to try for a ball to his left, Cora is worse. Together their baseball acumen is ZERO. I can’t count the times Cora has said in the post game interview that he just had a feeling. That answer never happens when his feeling costs them a game, it’s his way of saying aren’t I smart when the team wins. It’s not the players, it’s his lucky choice that was baseball genius. It’s so easy to despise the guy. Ignorance should not be rewarded when playing sports. Knowledge and talent separate those that can and those that can’t. Cora has neither. Just a big ego and pictures of the owners that prevent him from being fired.
tff – Yes the lineup was very weak today, for multiple reasons.
Rafaela was benched for his egregious mental errors and extended hitting slump.
O’Neill was benched for health reasons, what else is new.
They’ve basically given up on Mickey, but he’s still on the team so Wong can get practice sucking at multiple positions (ie: 2B, LF) while Jansen’s limp bat remains in the lineup because he was the “big RHB deadline acquisition”.
As for Casas, he broke the 0-for-16 but still looks totally lost at the plate. I warned people here who were expecting last summer’s version of Casas that it wouldn’t be happening.
Devers is injured and shouldn’t be playing at all. I would expect him to have shoulder surgery in the offseason.
And Ref has reverted back to his old form, just as I predicted when he was far overachieving earlier in the season. If he’s smart he will accept that option because he doesn’t deserve even a penny more.
But against the pathetic Tigers lineup, it shouldn’t take more than 2 runs to beat them as long as you pitch decent and play clean defense.
Totally agree on allowing the flow of the game to dictate in-game decisions. Why pay Cora millions if the analytics department is making all the in-game decisions prior to the game even starting?
It was great to see DOB and Will The Thrill and even TC hammering the Red Sox for their analytics. You’re right, analytics is like so many other things …. very beneficial, but only when used appropriately.
Trollfree
Ha ha ha!!!
It looks like there is a group photo, so everyone, both the management and Cora, were hostages of the situation…
I don’t see any other explanation for extending Cora’s contract.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cora admitted in an interview this season that he had mental problems in 2023 that resulted in him making bad decisions, but it looks like those problems haven’t gone away.
It’s unfortunate to see Cora make the same mistakes 4 years in a row, and if in 2021 the Red Sox were lucky and jumped in at the last minute, then the last three seasons – this deja vu continues and looks like it will continue for another 3 seasons, perhaps Cora is hoping that all the prospects coming soon will save his skin for making bad pitching decisions like he did in 2018.
bogie – Cora DID manage better in the first half of the season, but I said at the time it was only because he was going for a big fat contract extension.
I predicted once he gets the big fat contract extension, he would revert back to his crappy managing …. and that’s exactly what has happened.
How incredibly convenient that Devers has a mysterious shoulder injury. He hurt it in spring training and aggravated it diving in July. Odd how when he was hitting well the issue disappeared!!! hahaha If he weighed a bit less, say 50 pounds, maybe dives wouldn’t hurt so much. This guy is all excuses. Out of shape players get hurt more often. He’s been lucky these last 8 seasons. His age is catching up with him.
FYI…. Devers hit .217 in August of 2024, he hit .271 in August of 2023, he hit .164 in August of 2022, he hit .232 in August of 2021 when they made the playoffs, he hit .269 in August 2020 when there was only July to Sept!!. He hit .278 in 2019 and fell off even further in Sept after the big shake up in the front office. He hit .182 and was benched most of August in 2018 which helped us win the Division and a ring.
At what point do people stop making excuses for this guy? He can’t field and he can’t hit in August. It’s not going to change his status because that was decided at age 14 by Theo’s man down in the Dominican Republic so why not just be honest about his huge flaws?. How about just reporting fairly when he performs well and poorly.
Fever chose very ignorant words is his dissertation. Rafaela is hitting .260 in August. That’s 43 points higher than Devers. Casas didn’t fall off dramatically from his 2023 numbers, he hit .268 in August. Then who should Fever have complained about since he got both Rafaela and Casas wrong? Gonzalez hit .227, Jansen .146 and O’Neill .159. Who led the team in August? Yoshida .326, Duran .308 and Abreu with .282 (22 points higher than the horrible Rafaela).
Facts always show the truth of what’s going wrong.
1 – We have Cora as the manager
2 – We have a prima donna 3B who is all excuses when things don’t go well
3 – We have lots of league average or below league average players on the 26 man roster
4 – Our pitching substitutions are controlled by a moron
5 – Our batting order might as well be set by throwing darts
6 – Our best defenders don’t start where they should start
7 – We have two prospects who are better than nearly every starting fielder on the team sitting in AAA hitting over .300 while the MLB team has just Yoshida and Duran hitting .300 in August.
The team won’t win as constructed. You can’t win with the worst manager in baseball. You can’t win with the worst defensive 3B in the history of the game not playing DH as he should. Lastly, you can’t win without fixing holes because ownership wants the money to go to corporate. It’s pretty simple. As fans, all we can do is enjoy the development process the young players are going through to become all-stars in the MLB. The rest is out of our control, which sucks.
Yes, that second to last line is pretty much where I’m at here…. Enjoy the development process and hope that eventually things change enough that the team will be competitive again. I’m still hopeful for next year, if they make the right moves.
tff – Let’s hope Mayer doesn’t turn into Glenn Hoffman.
Some prospects will succeed, some won’t. That’s why it is best to have more than one. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Let’s get real about Trevor Story he is, without a doubt, the best defensive shortstop the Red Sox have in the entire organization. Defensively he has outstanding range gets to a lot of balls other shortstops don’t get to. He has a career .979 fielding percentage and that’s with all the throwing errors when everyone knew his arm wasn’t right. The arm has been fixed and when he came back in 2023 he was back to his outstanding defense. Anyone that suggests a n probable non shortstop in Campbell play short over the far superior defender in Story is way underestimating Story’s elite defense. He rarely makes a glove error he has one of the best reaction times of any shortstop in baseball he covers a ton of ground he is elite defensively. Campbell conversely doesn’t have near the shortstop instincts and range that Story has it’s not even close. Story plays shortstop if he’s healthy next year and that’s that. If Story is injured again Rafaela is the backup and a distant third is Campbell who is a second baseman probably to start next year. The point is errors are only part of the story defensively. When Boston went from Bogey to Story it was obvious right away that Story was clearly the better defensive shortstop. I’m not saying he was overall better than Bogey and I loved Bogey but it really wasn’t close defensively. It’s why you have to watch guys play the defensively you can’t just look at a stat and say this guy is better defensively without knowing the whole picture.
It’s why fielding percentage and errors don’t tell the whole story or even a major part of it. People may not want to admit that and by people I mean KD17 but that’s an actual fact.
Wasn’t KD17 here like 3 years ago?
Yordanny Monegro (21Age) prospect №25 Red Sox
2024 – A+ last 8 games 39IP, 15H, 11Walks, 47SO, 0ER!!!!, 2R, 0.00 ERA!!!, WHIP 0.60
B.Bello 2021 (21 Age) – A+ 6GS, 31.2 IP, 45SO, .217Avg, 1.01WHIP
Y.Monegro 2024 (21 Age) – A+ 14(13GS), 61.0 IP, 75SO, .181Avg, 1.03WHIP
The Red Sox would be complete fools if they didn’t protect this guy from the Rule 5 draft December 2024.
Yup. Think you have to protect him, which may be part of why they aren’t calling up their better prospects here?
tff17
Perhaps Monegro isn’t as hyped at the age of 21 as Bello was.
Bello 20 Age #24 Red Sox
2019 – Fastball 60/slider 55/ changeup 50/ control 50/ overall 40
#19 2021 – Fastball 55/slider 55/ changeup 55/ control 50/ overall 50
Monegro 21Age #25 Red Sox
2024 – Fastball 50/curveball 60/ slider 50 / control 45 / overall 40
I think Monegro will get a chance to play in AA next week, at least I hope so…
I think Monegro could be a top 10 pick for the Red Sox next season if they keep him.
There is some question as to how his stuff will hold up to higher competition. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s but it’s not considered to be an elite type fastball due to its spin characteristics. The interesting thing his best pitch last year was his curveball. He threw it up in the zone to steal strikes and then he started it in the middle broke down for heavy swing and miss it was his most effective pitch in 2023. This season he hasn’t used it as much he has really concentrated on that cutter/slider. It’s as if he was told to not rely on the fastball/curve so much and use his slider/cutter more.
In the beginning of the season he gave up some very hard contact but he has really started to control that cutter/slider pitch and since reintroducing his curve a little more again that fastball/slider/curve combination has been nearly unhittable. I think they have been artificially holding him down because they weren’t planning on protecting him in the rule 5 draft but imo that ship has sailed. His last opponent that he throughly dominated Bowling Greenhas been one of most dominant offenses and teams in the second half and he ran through them like nothing.
ERC also had a fantastic outing against BG gave up only one solo homer and looks primed for AA but that another discussion.
The top ten right now is really tough to break into, but once some guys graduate, sure!
Reviewing the SoxProspects history, Bello didn’t break into the top 10 until the middle of 2021, after he made it to AA (and with a hot K rate at that level). He wasn’t even in their top 20 at the start of 2021.
I’m totally enthused about the success that Monegro is having, but keep coming back to the same principle – you can’t realistically judge a pitcher in A ball, and you can’t scout the stat line. The 2.66 ERA is spectacular, but he has a 3.80 FIP.. In contrast, Bello had a 2.27 ERA but a 2.82 FIP at the same level.
Bello was a year older at the same level, but the 2020 minor league season was cancelled, so that wasn’t his fault.
And it is crazy how few innings these guys are throwing in the minors. Monegro only just topped 60 IP for the season. Long way from that to a major league workload…
Some other guys looking good in A-ball, especially Valera, but also Dean, Wehunt, and ERC. Dobbins at AA (now AAA). Wikelman Gonzalez has been throwing more strikes and has a 1.41 ERA since the start of July.
This year we’ve seen the “Big Three” establish themselves in the upper minors and advance to the verge of the majors. (Oops, “Big Four” now that Campbell has roared through the minors.) I’m thinking next year will feature the emergence of some pitching in the system, something that Bloom never gave much attention to.
Monegro, ERC, Valera, Dobbins, Early, Paez are all pitchers that have been added by Bloom.
Bloom added more pitching than people realize. In fact Blooms pick are littered in this very deep and quality farm system. I think it’s fair to criticize Bloom on what he did with the big club I don’t think it’s fair to criticize what he has done with the farm. At worst you can give him an incomplete but all of his top 4 guys are Bloom guys including arguably the steals of the 2022 and 2023 draft with Anthony and Campbell respectively.
tff17
Bello pitched 31.2 innings in A+ at age 22 in 2021 with a 2.27 ERA and was promoted to Double-AA where he pitched 63.2 innings with a 4.66 ERA in 15 games with a .266 AvG and 1.41 WHIP. (95.1 IP).
Monegro 71.0 IP in 2024 at age 21 and will probably play 2-3 more games, hopefully in double AA.
Yordanni missed April 2024 due to injury, so his innings total falls short of Bello’s 2021.
Bruin1012
depth of the SP 2025:
AAA
Fitts (Breslow, trade Verdugo, Rule 5 2024), W.Gonzalez (DD,added 40-man Nov.2023), Dobbins (Bloom, Rule 5 2024), Priester (Breslow, trade Yorke July 2024, added), I.Coffey (Bloom)
AA
Rodriguez (Bloom), Paez (Bloom), Monegro (Bloom, if they save it, Rule 5 2024), Sandlin (trade Schreiber, Breslow), Wehant (Bloom), Earley (Bloom)
A+
Valera (Bloom), Mullins (Bloom),Dean (Bloom),
The college picks from this year will start at A and A+, extending that list.
The key is helping these kids develop…
Yea that’s my point. Bloom mostly drafted High School guys until the last two drafts when he drafted some college arms. Hunter Dobbins was drafted in the 8th round of the 2021 draft but he was coming off injury so it has taken him a little more time. It takes time when you draft young guys. International guys take time as well. We will be seeing Bloom guys coming for the next several years.
While Bloom was destroying the 2018 Roster he had no plan for recovery. He picked HS players which completely elongates the turnaround process. He was a destructive person and every thing he did seems to have been planned by someone who was trying to destroy the Red Sox. From Mookie to adding 3 years by picking HS players, nothing was in the best interest of the Boston Red Sox. If it came out an arch rival like the Yankees planted him, it wouldn’t be shocking based on the level of destruction he did to the organization. He killed the MLB roster and the MilB Rosters.
Notice the words used were pitching not quality pitching. Why? Because there is nothing that suggests any of it will be quality pitching.
Bloom had crap drafts and crap acquisitions. Name ONE guy who is highly successful that Bloom chose? Which player is as good as Houck or Casas? There aren’t any so far and if one accidentally succeeds his batting average at acquisition of talent will remain far below the Mendoza line.
Of the hundreds of actions taken by Bloom a 1% success rate is nothing to brag about. He destroyed the farm system and the MLB roster. Those are the facts until something happens that suggests differently and that’s not happening soon. Remember Campbell and Anthony are two out of 200 so there are still 198 failures.
Lets talk in the next 5 years as all the talent matriculates. It is only then you can grade Boom’s draft and international acquisitions.
Trollfree
Bloom destroyed the farming system?
Looks like you’re not yourself…
Which pitchers Dombrowski drafted from 2015 to 2019 that were successful during this period?
These are Dombrowski’s pitching credits from 2016-2019 in the draft and international signings:
2016
J.Groome 1St round – 26 Age (vegetates with Triple AAA 5IP in 2024 Padres, failure)
B.Mata IFA – 25 Age (perpetual injuries the last 4 seasons, failure)
M.Shawaryn 5th round – 29 Age (Not played 2022, 2023, 2024, failure)
S.Nogosek 6th round – 29 Age (vegetates with Triple AAA Washington, 9.77 ERA 2024, failure)
2017
T.Houck 1St round – 28 Age (solid number 2 in 2024, success)
K.Crawford 16th round – 28 Age (full season in 2023, 4.04 ERA, 16th round success)
B.Bello IFA – 25 Age (the ceiling of a potential ace is currently more like number 3/4)
Z.Schellenger 6th round – 28 Age (Not played 2022, 2023, 2024, failure)
2018
D.Feltman 3rd round – 27 Age (Not play 2024, failure)
T.Ward 5th round – 27 Age ( vegetates with Triple AAA Washington, 5.61 ERA, failure)
A.Ramirez IFA – 23 Age (was traded in 2021 for Schwarber, a good deal for Bloom, vegetates with FCL Washington 2024, failure)
A.Bastardo IFA – 22 Age (was in development for double AA in 2024, TJS in May, will appear in 2026)
W.Gonzalez IFA – 22 Age ( in development in double AA, ETA 2025)
2019
N.Song 4th round – 27 Age ( Not played 2024, failure)
C.Murphy 6th round – 26 Age (TJS 2024, will appear in 2025, debuted in MLB in 2023 4.91 ERA)
L.Perales IFA – 21 Age (was in development for double AA in 2024, TJS June 2024, will appear in 2026)
That’s not awful for four years. One of the two first round picks, one IFA, one late round pick, and a couple IFAs who might still be good. Decent top talent, though could have used greater quantity.
bogie2x – Monegro’s stats are improving. Evaluating the facts of his performances in the minors shows his 2024 H-A performance is trending in the right direction in that 40 hits in 61 innings means he’s dominating Hi-A hitters. His walks are still a concern with 23 in 61 innings but his improvement in stuff along with a stable walk rate brings his WHIP in line with quality pitchers. The kids is 21 and has a long way to go but he’s on the right track. He needs to maintain or improve his walk rate because the higher level hitters will not be dominated so easily unless his stuff improves significantly.
It’s late in the year so AA may go well but it often doesn’t this late in the year so they’ll need to start him at AA in 2025 to see if he can dominate again.
Bruin1012
The Troll’s argument is serious – Story didn’t win a Golden Glove, so he’s worse than Bogaerts. Ha ha ha, what childish arguments.
That’s like saying Jeter was the best defensive shortstop because he won 5 Gold Gloves with -165 Rds!!! , and Simmons is the worst because he won 4 Golden Gloves with +201 Rds!!! for his career.
But we all know how Jeter won 5 Gold Gloves while being one of the worst defensive shortstops of his generation.
Yea it’s an asinine argument everyone knows.
bogie2x = Bruin1012 claimed that Story was a gold glove caliber shortstop. All I did was point out that he never won one. Childish? That makes no sense. I simply refuted a lie by Bruin1012. That’s not childish, it’s called setting the record straight.
Jeter sucked on defense. He may be the most over rated player in the history of baseball. A first round HOFer who never was the best shortstop in any single year of his 22 year career. He eventually belonged in the HOF but if he played in KC, he’d be getting elected to the Hall around now not in his first year.
Your point about Jeter is a good one. It doesn’t apply to our discussion of Story because I simply pointed out that Bruin1012 exaggerated how good Story actually has been. That was the point it had nothing to do with him being downgraded for not being a gold glove player, it was a simple fact correction.
Troll please point out in the above tweet where I said he had gold caliber defense. I did say he was the best defensive shortstop right now in the Red Sox entire system and I think that is true. I did say he plays outstanding defense based on advanced statistics that’s true. I said he was an excellent defender I think that’s true. You know what I didn’t say I didn’t say gold glove caliber but even if someone wants to say that I’m not going to argue his defense is excellent. Now if I said that gold glove winning shortstop Trevor Story that would be a falsehood the rest not so much.
Trollfree
First of all, the Bruin didn’t claim that Story is a Gold Glove caliber player on defense; I have not seen a single tweet making such a claim.
Secondly, you argued that Bogaerts is a better defender than Story based on his career opportunities as a SS –
Bogaerts 11680.2 Inn, 5095 Ch, -54 Rdrs, -31 OAA, -21 FRV, 105 ER, .979 Fld, 677 DP
Story 6686.1 Inn, 3256 Ch, +79 Rdrs, +26 OAA, +21 FRV, 69 ER, .979 Fld, 506 DP
You still haven’t provided the facts in which place Bogey is a better defender than Story, I provided expanded characteristics.
I watched a lot of games played by Bogey and Story, they are both athletic and athletic, but Storey’s defense is an order of magnitude higher, which is confirmed by the advanced characteristics.
Story’s actions are very smooth and he gets to balls that Bogey can’t even get close to.
I’d say Story is closer to a Gold Glove defensively than Bogey is to an average defense.
I like both players.
Trollfree
Worst full defense season of Story on a SS:
2018 – 1372.2 Inn., 626 Ch, 13 ER, 92 DP, .979 Fld, +7Rdrs, -6 OAA
Best full defense season of Story on a SS:
2019 – 1275.1 Inn, 606 Ch, 8 ER, 90 DP, .987 Fld, +21Rdrs, +18 OAA
Worst full defense season of Bogey on a SS:
2017 – 1310.1 Inn, 552 Ch, 17 ER, 75 DP .969 Fld, -11 Rdrs, -16 OAA
Best full defense season of Bogey on a SS:
2022 – 1249.2 Inn, 581 Ch, 10 ER, 78 DP, .983 Fld, +5 Rdrs, +5 OAA
Note about the Golden Glove on a SS NL
Story Rockies 2019 –
1275.1 Inn, 606 Ch, 8 ER, 90 DP, .987 Fld, +21Rdrs, +18 OAA, +14 FRV, +2.8 dWAR
Ahmed Diamondbacks 2019 –
1381.0 Inn, 632 Ch, 13 ER, 79 DP, .979 Fld, +16Rdrs, +17 OAA, +13 FRV, +2.3 dWAR
Interestingly, Story surpassed Ahmed in all defensive metrics, but didn’t receive a Gold Glove…
Why???
Another guy that we don’t talk about but is quietly having an excellent season is Mikey Romero. The thing that shocks me about this guy is the amount of power he is displaying. The ball really jumps off his bat and he just seems to get better and better. The guy can flat out hit. He stated late again still recovering from the back injury and he was rusty to start from May 7th to the end of June he hit .239/.292/.381 he was struggling to get his timing down he just didn’t look very good. Then after July 1st until now he’s hitting .325/.361/.643. What has been so shocking to me was how hard this guy hits the ball. He doesn’t walk much but he has a serious knack to barrel the ball. His last homer he hit was on a curveball that he broke a ton he tracked and managed to get under it despite the ball being at his ankles and hit a line drive homer 380 feet. This is a guy to watch moving forward. He’s not slowing down in AA either he’s hit 3 homers in his 5 games at the level and seems like getting a at least one hit in every game. We have a couple more weeks to watch this guy but the recent results are quite encouraging. I thought this guy might be a line drive hitting singles hitter but that isn’t the case he’s got real power this makes him a very interesting prospect moving forward.
He was slowed by injuries, but is now hitting his stride. Great to see that!
Romero was near the top in bat speed at the MLB combine before he was drafted.
All I had no idea about Romero since he has been so injured pretty much this is the only time he hasn’t been injured and boy does he have swing with the idea of doing damage. I was just so surprised by his power since I expected a guy with a line drive hit tool and he does hit quite a few line drives hard but he also hits a lot of balls in the air and he hits the ball hard. This guy lives to swing he seems loathe to take a walk but he doesn’t chase much it seems.
Mikey Romero is yet another HS player drafted by the guy who tore down the Red Sox empire. Again, he drafted long term players to extend the suffering of the Boston Red Sox fans because college players would have shortened the down time after he gave away all the talent on the MLB roster.
Romero was a mistake from the time he picked him. Bloom was obsessed with shortstops from California. It’s a very rich part of the country for good quality shortstops, too bad he had no idea which ones were the good ones.
Romero as an 18 year old didn’t do much in ROK ball but got promoted after 10 games since the farm system was so bare from Bloom’s choices. He did better in his 9 game stint at A ball in 2022. 19 games in his draft season is almost like not playing. Hard to say anything about such a small sample size.
In 2023 Romero went back to ROK ball for 8 games and again didn’t do well so they promoted him to A ball a second time for 23 games this time. This time he bombed in Salen and hit .217 so naturally they moved him up to Hi-A where he hit a miserable .100.
If you read these four short paragraphs about Romero do you think he sounds like an outstanding talent or yet another miss by Bloom?
So 2024 finally comes around after TWO terrible seasons and the 20 year old starts once again in ROK ball. This time he plays 3 games and gets promoted. FInally, in Hi-A he gets to actually play some games. He hits .271/.319/.498/.817 in 59 games. This is his most comprehensive look at his skills and it’s very, very mediocre. His 10 HRs are good and his walk rate stinks. He doesn’t steal bases and his fielding percentage is .939 which is very close to what Devers did in the minors!!
So why did Bruin1012 write a long paragraph about how good this guy is when the numbers show he is NOT good? Great question because there is NOTHING here to suggest this is a guy to watch going forward. Instead, he’s a guy more likely to be DFA’d than promoted based on his performance to date. His 5 games at AA is hardly enough to draw great upside conclusions, it’s 5 games where his OBP and BATTING AVERAGE are the same. It’s 5 games where he made 2 errors in just 16 total chances for an .875 fielding percentage.
So when you see huge exaggerations of players picked by Bloom you can count on the fact that NONE of the information actually ties to the performance of the player, it’s just one bizarre opinion of the skill sets of the player based on watching him.
Scouting reports from unqualified people stated boldly sure make it sound like someone knows what they are talking about, right up to the point you validate it and find that the whole thing was a fabrication created in the guys mind and the player is NOTHING like what was described.
Once again reading comprehension very poor I simply pointed out a trend since getting back to health it took the guy a month or so but he’s hitting very well. Everything I said is true period end of story. I recognized he started the season late due to recovering from injury that’s a true statement, I said he started slowly showing his slash line for the month and half of games and it was bad those are facts. I then said he really started to hit from July 1st on his slash line was outstanding he was rightfully promoted to AA and he’s continued to rake. These are all true statements I can’t help you are so biased against anything Bloom did that you can’t acknowledge any player he’s drafted.
How about this Johstynxon Garcia, a DD guy has had a really nice breakout season he’s looked very good. He hits the ball very hard he also doesn’t walk much but makes a lot of hard contact. DD did a bang up job in signing him. He has the look of a nice ascending player.
Bruin1012 = Do people obey you like you are king in your real life. Everything is true end of story? hahaha wow I guess anything you declared needs to stand whether it’s true or not true. I think the word is dogmatic. The way you approach writing on websites like this one.
Your focus on who brought them to the team seems to be your obsession that you try morph to being my obsession. I am very clear about why I don’t like Bloom and what he did but the data is what drives what I write about a player. You know, the stuff that documents performance. Not my imagination and interpretation like you, it’s just data defining the performance of the player.
If you want me to look at Garcia’s data I will to validate or invalidate what you wrote but it’s not because he is associated with any specific GM, he’s a minor league player. it’s that simple
If you want to compliment a guy do it because he did well and it’s documented not because a specific GM brought him to the team.
Lol! Great looking prospect, showing some helium, but we’ll NEVER figure out how to spell that name. Worse than Yastrzemski!
You see KD I watch the games and when I notice someone start to standout I make note of it. After watching them standout I then go back and look at trends statistically. If the statistics support the trend I witness then I comment about it since most people including you don’t watch the games. I especially like to comment when I’m surprised like how much power Romero actually has. I’m quite sure if you actually watched some games you would be impressed as well but the who knows he is a Bloom guy so he could turn into a perineal all star and you’d still find reason to complain with your biased point of view.
Bruin1012 – Your idea of “standout” sounds a lot more like the very insignificant concept of having a slight uptick in productivity. If a really bad player has an uptick it’s big news to you and the player is declared far better than they are. Your use of superlatives creates false impressions. There is nothing wrong with saying after 3 years Romero is finally beginning to look like he’s healthy, maybe he will put up better numbers now. That’s a far cry from this is a guy we really need to monitor because it’s not. He’s a pretender and proved it over his first 3 years. If that changes, it can be acknowledged through his jump in recorded performance. Otherwise, he’s just another slug in the farm system that was weakened dramatically by Bloom.
Guys like Campbell and Teel strengthened the farm system but the list is short compared to those that hurt or didn’t improve it. I am hoping Breslow has greater success with his first round picks than Bloom. Montgomery is an excellent start.
When I write factual data about performance that’s not complaining. That’s a negative review based on the data. When it’s a positive performance that’s not a compliment, it’s just the facts coming out about the player’s performance. You personalize all the stats and your opinions about watching players. I don’t. I clinically review their performance based on almost a half century of baseball knowledge I often point out historical trends of types of players. Those are probabilities of success based on history but I don’t declare they will fulfill those trends, I only point out the likelihood of it happening. Mayer is a perfect example. Failing or being average as a fourth pick historically has led to failed careers and at best just disappointing careers. I didn’t create the stats, Mayer did. I simply compared them to many other fourth picks or early first round picks and deduced that his likelihood of success dropped with each average or below average season.
Campbell on the other hand has behaved far more like a fourth pick in the draft as he has far exceeded the performance of average players. This too leads to an observation that his success to date is more consistent with Mookie, Bogey and Devers’ hitting than it is to Jeter Downs, the guy Mayer resembles in many ways. Downs wasn’t injured as often but in his lowest levels in the minors he was far below normal just like Mayer since both were first round picks. The higher Jeter Downs rose in the minors the more he struggled. Mayer could be someone who suddenly starts living up to his draft spot but that’s not what usually happens. Normally, slow developers end up as back-ups in the majors if they make the majors. There are always exceptions and we don’t know the future but the odds are greater that Mayer will be a bust considering where he was drafted. The problem with baseball organizations is sunk cost. They will do EVERYTHING possible to not look stupid for picking him over a guy like Cowser who is already a success despite being taken later.
As of right now, Mayer is like a gambler who has lost a ton of money at the tables in Vegas and the organization needs to decide if they keep chasing the losses or move forward with a more favorable plan that includes Campbell as SS.
My bet is Boston will make the wrong choice as they always do since firing DD and force Mayer to be the lauded player he is not. They kept Devers at 3B despite the obvious problem so their commitment to specific players can be devastatingly bad which means Mayer will probably still get to play ahead for the far superior Campbell and they will shove Campbell’s round peg in a square hole. Maybe they’ll put him at 2B but we know he can’t go to 3B, LF is set for Anthony, Duran in Center and Rafeala in RF so maybe to appease him they will have Abreu and Campbell split time at DH or maybe it will be Yoshida and Campbell or maybe they’ll just leave him in AAA until he is demoralized, they like to do things like that. Until Campbell has a champion in the front office or in Cora, he’s never going to play ahead of the privileged Mayer. Red Sox politics. Never what’s best for the team or the fans, nepotism only.
Please tell me what the un-factual data I quoted on Mikey Romero is. Was it the slash line till the end of June nope those are facts is that the slash line from July 1st on nope those are facts. Is that I said he was a very interesting prospect moving forward it’s not like I said here’s another top 100 prospect I simply said he a very interesting prospect. Geez trying to put words in my mouth. I simply say when you actually spend time watching these prospects come talk to me because you have no clue what you’re talking about and we all know stats can lie especially in what a future player can be. The only exception to this is in your world you can look at a 20 year olds batting average and say he sucks. Congrats what a talent you have. You should sell your amazing services to every team because you can look and a batting average or the amount of errors someone has and determine he sucks or not.
For sure, interesting. I tend not to take A ball stats too seriously, though, and he only just reached AA.
Bruin
I’m very disappointed…
Professor of baseball science Troll buried Mayer’s hopes of making it to the Major League and we won’t see him there, aha ha ha
I’m not surprised…
If he tells stories that Bogi is a better short-stop defender than Story, I think comments are unnecessary
.
Boogie he has no clue. I am concerned about Mayer but it’s due to his injury history not his on field performance.
KD17: if you can’t actually measure a players development (because you can’t) then you also can’t say he’s behind or a failure or doomed to fail.
Timelines vary…
Duran was drafted in 2018, didn’t put it together in the majors until 2023. And he was a college pick! High school picks typically take a couple years longer.
The Mariners signed David Ortiz in 1992, days after his 17th birthday. Didn’t reach the majors until 1997 and didn’t become a star until 2003.
Sometimes good things are worth waiting for…
You like to play with trolls, don’t you? Must make you a troll too
Huh?
Acell’s been after me, so I’m after him now
What can he say then? You cherry pick stats too
Bruin1012 – Unfactual – Simple review this paragraph
Then after July 1st until now he’s hitting .325/.361/.643. What has been so shocking to me was how hard this guy hits the ball. He doesn’t walk much but he has a serious knack to barrel the ball. His last homer he hit was on a curveball that he broke a ton he tracked and managed to get under it despite the ball being at his ankles and hit a line drive homer 380 feet.
This is a guy who has played 120 games in his career. His performance to date at ROK, A and HI-a with 5 AA games is .270/.326/.460/.786 with no stolen bases. These are pedestrian numbers not outstanding. So he’s a league average hitter, a slightly below league average walk rate, a .190 isolated power and a league average or below league average OPS. He has no speed and steals no bases.
On ONE DAY he took a curve ball and hit it 380 feet despite it being at his ankles. Now, if you just said that, it’s an anecdote but you went farther.
“This is a guy to watch moving forward. He’s not slowing down in AA either he’s hit 3 homers in his 5 games at the level and seems like getting a at least one hit in every game.”
Now you’ve dogmatically concluded that somehow this ONE minor incident and a 5 game stretch turned this guy into someone people should watch going forward. That suggests he’s special and he’s not. He’s a crap prospect who impressed you with a swing and then played well for 5 games in his 120 game career. The other 115, not good.
TFF17 responds by suggesting this guy is hitting his stride which further exaggerates what this guy is actually doing. Your misleading comments led to other misleading comments and before you know it, this guy is being talked about despite sucking because you wanted to promote him publicly. That is the lie being told. Small 5 game segments and a HR hit off his shoe tops turned a guy who has played below average into a guy worth following. You do it all the time and it never reflects reality.
That is what I object to. What I don’t do is take cheap shots at you like you do me. I point out your inaccuracies and you try to make like of the storied approach to statistical analysis in baseball because you think your vision is more accurate than the recording of facts.
FYI… a negative review of a player suggests that a player has sucked but it doesn’t personalize it. It’s a measure of performance not the person.
If any sports figure plays badly or sucked that day, nobody is saying the player sucks it’s his performance that sucked. Mayer’s may be a great kid but he’s performed well below expectations. Whether below expectations is used or sucked is the choice of the individual reviewing his performance. It all starts with expectations. What should one expect from the fourth pick in a draft that is loaded with talent. Mayer hasn’t measured up to it like Cowser and it’s not because one is in college and the other is in High School. We needed the best possible player when Bloom drafted especially since he knew he was tearing down the Red Sox. He had a plan to rebuild but he should have considered the time frame. That makes his 3 consecutive HS players in the first round a really bad decision.
Bloom’s performance sucked. It’s not an insult to Bloom, it’s an insult to the way he performed in his job. The assessment is accurate so there is no bias.
I won’t apologize for actually watching the games and seeing things that shock me. The fact is we didn’t know what Romero was due to injury he had pretty well publicized back issue it was so bad that people who paid attention to news on these young players were generally concerned about his back because it just wouldn’t heal. Finally this season he has healed since I watch so much minor league baseball I see the interviews it was sometime in late June that he did an interview and he said I finally feel like myself I can finally show what I can do it was after that he went on a tear and is still on a tear. There’s nothing made up in that statement it’s all facts.
You don’t personally attack people that’s complete bs you do it all the time the difference is I don’t back down when you attack I attack right back. Your a classic can dish it out guy but whine like a baby when someone dishes it back. I guarantee you attacked at least one person in this article but I don’t think you realize you do it. Just know I will never back down it’s not in my nature never has been. Someone tries to bully and I rip them that’s what you try do you try and bully it will never work with me. Go ahead tell me you don’t personally attack people and I’ll point out everyone besides me you personally attack you do it all the time.
I’ve told you my philosophy on prospect evaluation and it’s a hell of a lot more than looking at some old school stats. When you can bring some visually educated evidence to the conversation I’ll listen but when regurgitate a stat to help your crusade against everything Bloom just go away you don’t want to deal with me stop commenting on what I see then verify statistically before I comment on it. If you want to continue I’ll just continue or you can just go away.
I don’t believe I exaggerated what he is doing? I said he was slowed by injuries (just 230 PA the last two years combined) and is hitting his stride. Quality numbers at Salem, if still flawed plate discipline.
I can appreciate progress from a prospect without thinking he is the second coming, or penciling him into the 2026 ML lineup… Heck, I was talking up Yorke earlier this year, and he STILL doesn’t look like anything more than a second division starter.
Guess everybody draws their own line somewhere. I probably set the bar lower than most, following prospects who MIGHT be something some day if they can take two or three steps forward.
Baseball America lists the Red Sox with an incredible *six* top-100 prospects in their latest update. Roman Anthony #2, Mayer #11, Campbell #25, Teel #26, and then Montgomery and Arias to round out the list. I’ll be interested in the SoxProspects opinion (their update is at the end of this week), but they’ve already indicated that Campbell will be rising. Nor is it hard to imagine Arias jumping over the flailing (if talented) Bleis and the injured Perales. The FCL MVP and holding his own in full-season ball at the age of 18.
Note that Baseball America owes nothing to the Red Sox, and in the past has rated the Red Sox system poorly. Prospect evaluation is an art as much as a science, but I would consider them at least a neutral opinion.
Arguable that the Red Sox have the strongest collection of top talent in the majors, with four prospects in the top 30 as well as the #2 overall.
Dare I observe that five of those six names were Bloom signings?
Yea tff Bloom may have done a lot of things but destroying isn’t one of them. He was building a legit pipeline. There will be guys coming for years. To early to rate the Breslow guys but especially in the last two years that Bloom drafted it appears he did a really good job. Now what he did with the big club that can be argued about the farm not so much.
It’s not just these guys tff the top 30 is loaded very deep system.
Any of the top thirty would have made the top ten about five years back…
Bruin1012
The Red Sox will finally have enough SP depth at Triple-AAA in Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Wikelman, I.Coffey in 2025 that has been lacking in previous seasons.
I can see Breslow making a deal for a #2/3 starting pitcher – it would be logical to clear the roster a bit
40 men for prospects who have made the leap this season – Campbell, Anthony.
I think they’ll have a strong spring training in 2025 and crack the 26-man roster, at least one of them for sure, unless the Red Sox think about doing a control manipulation.
“ destroying the farm”
Did you catch yesterday’s performance from Quinn Priester? You know, the guy whose acquisition has had the pitchfork mob out in arms?!?
He’s been getting monster whiff rates on his slider and changeup, and the velocity has ticked up on his fastball/sinker. Over his last four starts he has 8.24 K/9, a minuscule 0.92 BB/9, a 3.20 ERA and 3.50 FIP. But even that belies the quality of yesterday’s start, 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K.
Fitts has been on track since the start of August, a 2.38 ERA over that span. But Priester has a higher ceiling, in my opinion, if he can get his consistency down.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them once the team gives up on this season. They are ready for a taste of the majors.
I sure did by my count he had 13 swings and misses mostly on his slider. It was the best start he has had in Worcester uniform. He was really good they were also pounding his sinking fastball into the ground. He didn’t use his excellent curve much but when they did they just looked at it as it dropped in. It’s obvious that the pitching lab wants him to continue to develop that slider. His fastball appeared to sit around 93 but with heavy sink. His slider was filthy though. He’s really been pretty good since his first outing with Worcester when he got shelled.
I also saw Romero hit a bomb to right center very loud contact.
I read Priester is supposed to add muscle in the offseason.
He can use it for sure, the major league season is a long grind.
Positive moments for me this season –
Duran is showing MVP level play and has become a team leader, Hauck’s breakthrough as a starting pitcher, Anthony’s progress, development of Abreu, Rafaela, Hamilton, progress of Wong in attack, Verdugo trade looks very promising for the Red Sox.
A pleasant surprise is Campbell, who has made the leap from A+ to AAA and isn’t slowing down, Duran’s elite center defense.
Negatives – Sale’s trade, which was a disaster for the Red Sox in the short term, injuries to Story, Casas, lack of progress from Bello, Wong’s defensive regression, Perales TJS, another Mayer injury.
If they weren’t going to extend Sale, then trading him made sense. They didn’t get a good return, though, as they failed to anticipate his rebound year.
I disagree somewhat on Bello, I believe the picture is more nuanced than that. First, he has improved his K rate and HR rate, both needed developments. His FIP improved from 4.54 to 4.33 and his xFIP improved similarly. The Pitching Bot and Stuff+ models also show improvement, with the Pitching Bot model climbing from a 4.40 ERA to a 3.70 ERA and the Pitching+ model improving from 98 to 104. Another way of saying that is that he has upgraded his arsenal incrementally, from below average to above average.
The natural retort is, “Show me the numbers!” If it doesn’t translate to actual ERA, then what is the point? And in fact it *has* translated to on-field performance. Going back 12 GS to the start of July, he has a 3.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP, and 3.53 xFIP with a strong 70.2 IP averaging just under 6 IP/GS.
Over that span, Bello is #8 in the majors in innings, clearly carrying a full starter’s load at this point. He is #33 in the majors in park-adjusted ERA, despite questionable defense behind him, and #24 in the majors in WAR. In short he has been pitching like a solid #2 over the last two months. Better than Houck, for that matter, though of course Houck was tremendous in the first half of the season.
If you look at the season overall, Bello might be a little behind Crawford. But if you look at how each has progressed, and look ahead to next year, Bello now stands as the clear #2 in the rotation, ahead of both Crawford (#3) and Pivetta (#4).. He remains the youngest pitcher on the team, and is not yet into his prime years.
tff17: Great post!
tff17
I was hoping Bello would be good all season, but with the progress of Houck and Crawford, 2025 should be encouraging.
By the way, the Red Sox added Guerrero to the 40 men today.
Saw that, and he got into the game today! We’ve seen worse out there for sure, hope they give him a real chance.