For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.
This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.
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I’ll guess that he ends up playing it safe and opts in. Once these arm injuries pop up, it seems to always be a precursor to TJ down the line. A guy like Tanaka is the exception. And even without the injury, Coles style of pitching is one that usually ages pretty poorly. Both of those reasons might scare teams off from approaching the deal he would be opting out from.
“I’ll guess that he ends up”…Excellent, concise analysis.
I’m not so sure about that. Cole is heavily involved with the MLBPA and may opt out on general principles feeling like it’s something he should do.
I hope he opts in but if he doesn’t, I hope they let him walk and go after Burnes.
As an Orioles fan, I also hope that they do this…
More than likely, he will leverage his Opt Out into another guaranteed year with the Yankees which they will undoubtedly do….and given that pitching is of prime importance in the AL East, after signing Soto, the Yankees will turn their sights on Burnes…..
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There is little doubt that Gerrit Cole has been a #1 ace the last near decade. There’s also little doubt that he’s been paid like a #1 ace as well, garnering by far the largest pitcher’s guarantee ever(at the time)at $324M/9. If players want huge guarantees, then there should be no opt outs. You’re either in or you’re out and if players want opt outs, then teams should also insist on opt outs in their end of the deal.
Both sides are free to agree to whatever contract terms they want.
In all honesty, what would he gain by hitting FA? I don’t know if teams would spend more than 35+ mill on him for 5 years. Everything he wants is right in front of him
“In all honesty”…Good points. The risk is potentially greater than the gain. If teams are going to pay #1 money, then they should definitely pay it over the first 75% of a player’s career, not the last 25% or so.
DeGrom says hi. Not being cheeky, but similar risk/skill comp IMO.
Modern contracts are paying top SP well into their late 30’s and early 40’s.
Certainly not the smart money, but if the Yankees truly have convinced themselves it’s an either/or situation in regards to Soto/Cole, I’m quite confident Cole will get what he wants somewhere else.
“Into their late 30’s and eatly 40’s..certainly not the smart money”…In my opinion, it’s a rather recent trend(Degrom, Scherzer, Verlander and maybe a couple others)and the on-field results have been disastrous. I’m not sure these late career big deals will continue, since teams are often paying premiums to players for rehab, rest and multiple IL placements. Since you and I both consider these bad contract signings(“not smart money”), what makes you think that teams will not soon consider it the same?
Someone would definitely bite for the age 35-37 seasons ROI front end of it considering his workhorse reputation and CY Young acumen.
Many of these owners are swayed by name value and award recognition and consistently throwing 200 innings in today’s 160 IP environment is built in surplus value.
I was going to post the same thing. I don’t think the NYY have any downside. Someone has to offer him $180M/5 for the NYY to be at equilibrium.
That would be ages 34-38. I’d be a little surprised if anyone would want to do that after his injury. I drafted him in two leagues, and I am happy with the results. But this isn’t close to vintage Cole.
I think he will be a good Cole, but not a great Cole going forward, and I don’t think he is opting out.
I think he opts in. He’s made a ton of money, the Yankees are home and perennial contenders.
He will at end of his deal in 2028 but he won’t opt out at the end of 2024.
Hope he opts out but he won’t.
He’s a Boras client, so I suspect there will be some sort of negotiating game to be played, He has an advantage–he knows how his elbow feels. As soon as he opts out, the Yankees have the advantage–they may (especially with Soto situation up in the air) let him opt out. Then’s he’s a FA at 34–does he really get more and longer? If he starts negotiations with the Yankees again, they will want to trade length for a lower AAV on the back end, to save some on CBT tax. Cole is very good, but his comp is not Judge, and Scherzer and Verlander are excellent examples why you don’t pay aging starters huge money.
Boros has certainly taken some hits this past season with respect to clients to I wouldn’t be surprised if Cole made his own decisions regarding his future which will probably mean a organizational job pithing the Yankees….he’ll leverage his opt out into another year or even 2 of guaranteed money but he isn’t going anywhere else at this stage of his career….
The Yankees will throw on an extra guaranteed year and he goes nowhere.
Dude hasn’t been the same since cheating
But it’s the cheating that got him the big contract, so he’s doing just fine.
90% of the pitchers in either league were guilty of using “sticky stuff” to increase spin rates……your way off base singling him out…..
He just won his first CY last year.
June 5, 2008: Drafted by the New York Yankees in the 1st round (28th pick) of the 2008 amateur draft, but did not sign.
Little chance he doesn’t opt out. Even smaller chance the Yankees let him walk. Slight possibility they renegotiate the remaining guareenteed $’s to lower the AAV.
Cole, on the advice of borat, opts out to get the Yankees to void the opt out and get the 2029 option picked up. If not, borat will assure him any team with deep pockets will sign him to a longer term deal. however with the recent injury no team sign Cole and only get a two year deal in spring training .
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I think he opts out and the Yankees let him walk and use that to go all in on Soto
“All in on Soto”….That’s why I think he stays put, because that could very well happen where the Yankees prioritize Soto over him. I doubt he wants to take the chance he ends up pitching for the Giants or Cardinals.
Why do you think they can’t sign both?
“They can’t sign both”….Giancarlo, Cole, Judge and potentially Soto is why. They are already over the cap and even a rich team like the N.Y Yankees have spending and payroll limits.
They already are paying Cole and Soto. You are talking adding maybe 15m to the payroll. The Yankees knew this when they traded for Soto. They aren’t letting either walk.
Because Soto is expected to get a $500 million dollar contract and that is one hell of an investment even for the Yankees.
forbes.com/sites/peterchawaga/2024/06/11/mlb-execs…
Also because the Yankees have probably already gotten the best they can expect to get from the Cole so why not cut bate before he starts to regress into less than an ace. He is 34 after all.
Well if you lose your ace then your team regress a lot. They still have to go out and sign someone to replace him. You aren’t getting any better options out on the free agent market.
Mets Burnes might not be better but he’s younger. There’s also the chance that Japanese pitcher (I can’t remember his name) gets posted. There are options.
And they will cost just as much or more. So is it about money or not?
It’s about the age with Cole.
Burnes is showing more career regression than Cole. 34 isn’t exactly ancient. Your not resigning him to a ten year deal.
@Mets. A lesser option than Cole plus Soto is the preference to the lesser option of Soto and Cole. The argument isn’t whether Cole has value. Obviously he does. You can’t ignore what MLB said either. It’s a difficult calculation to make but if I have to choose between the two, I would go with Soto also. Are you really going to wager that Cole has a Verlander trajectory? That sounds crazy to me. So you get on the younger player.
The Yankees don’t have to choose one or the other. Cole is already under contract and planned on the budget.
But if budget constraints mean they can’t have Soto for the price he asks for, this is one way where they can. Again, you also don’t seem to have any regard for the fact that Cole is 34. Cole might not be able to replace Cole, at this point.