In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
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Lowe has been great defensively. Power legit. Would I want to bet big on that and his good health continuing? Only if I am a serious contender and desperate and 2b is only position I have to upgrade. He will have qualifying offer so will lose draft pick.
Brandon Lowe is killing it. And I can’t wait til the Cubs let Happ go!