A year ago, Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger was putting the finishing touches on a fantastic rebound campaign that saw him place in the top ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second career Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with Chicago and slashed an excellent .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what seemed sure to be a significant payday in free agency over the winter.
That, of course, did not come to pass. Bellinger was one of several free agents who found himself struggling to find a deal that met expectations, and ultimately returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after each season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t quite lived up to his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 trips to the plate while his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 figure that’s more in line with his career norms and his power production has dipped to more closely match his batted ball metrics.
As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not to exercise his upcoming opt-out opportunity this November, it’s fair to wonder if there’s any reason for him to consider opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his previous platform year, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “fully expected” to remain with the Cubs rather than exercising his opt-out a returning to free agency this winter. Despite those expectations, however, the possibility that Bellinger could instead look to hit the open market for the third consecutive offseason cannot be overlooked.
After all, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, while worse than last year, are still well above league average. More importantly, however, his 2024 production is generally backed up by his peripheral numbers and appears likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks in part to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout rate for the second consecutive season this year, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for 16th-best in the majors this year, just ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.
That improved combination of contact and discipline at the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in power production Bellinger has experienced this year, and is still more than enough to make Bellinger one of the top bats at his position in the majors. Among qualified center fielders this year, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this year ranks seventh in the majors while his .332 on-base percentage is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind only AL MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s ability to play a quality center field while also delivering above average offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that without him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit just .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 trips to the plate with the Mets this year, as the top player available.
Given the fact that Bellinger also has an opt out following the 2025 season, it’s easy to imagine that he might simply be better off sticking with the Cubs, collecting a $27.5MM salary next year, and then returning to free agency prior to the 2026 season, when he would be leaving just $20MM on the table rather than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this year. While it’s true that a dominant offensive season from Bellinger could boost his profile, he’d also be marketing his age-30 campaign as opposed to his age-29 season and entering free agency on the wrong side of 30 can significantly depress a player’s earning potential. What’s more, he’d face much more competition in center field next year: The 2025-26 free agent class currently projects to include other notable center field options like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the possibility that Bader signs a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself next winter.
Bellinger’s status among free agency’s top center fielders would be diminished further by the fact that, he would almost assuredly not be used in center field next year if he were to remain with Chicago. The club’s recently-graduated top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over center field on a regular basis in recent weeks, pairing elite defense at the position with nine homers and 27 stolen bases in just 356 trips to the plate this year. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but it’s worth noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) since the start of July.
With Crow-Armstrong all but certain to be the club’s everyday center fielder in 2025, that would likely leave Bellinger forced to move to right field on a daily basis should he play for the Cubs next year, putting more pressure on his bat to produce at a level commensurate with the expectations of the position. Impressive as Bellinger’s offense has been for a center fielder, he ranks just 20th among 49 qualified outfielders this year in terms of wRC+, leaving him as a somewhat middling option offensively for an outfield corner. Without a significant step forward offensively next year, it’s easy to imagine Bellinger leaving money on the table by not exercising his opt-out this year and returning to free agency while he’s still under 30 years old and playing center field on a semi-regular basis.
Bellinger isn’t opting out.
How about a trade to the Mariners involving Luis Castillo? Both are good players who are a bit overpaid.
I was just thinking of something like that, except I think bellinger will opt out anyways because he knows he’s the only good center fielder on the market, and an offensively desperate team like the mariners or braves or even nationals pay him
The Cubs do not want to pay that much for a slightly above average bat in 2025
If the Cubs don’t want to pay that much I don’t see why anyone else would. He’s not a full time center fielder. He signed that deal coming off a much better year if he repeated 2023 he would certainly opt out but he didn’t.
Cubs could include Wicks the Mariners would need another starter and would prefer a lefty. Garver makes some sense for the Cubs too if the money could be worked out. There is a deal to be made there.
Belly in Colorado would be Kris Bryant all over again…
@sad tormented: The Braves probably won’t be “an offensively desperate team” next season. The return of Acuna, Riley, and Albies should boost their offense back to a better than average level. The main reason the Braves aren’t likely to sign Bellinger is that they don’t employ Boras clients. They’re the only MLB team w/out a Boras client in their organization. Even if they decided to negotiate w/one, it’s doubtful they’d sign a player to a position that they already have better options with Harris II in cf and Olson at 1B. AA won’t pay a bloated Boras salary for a left fielder.
Bellinger isn’t opting out out because he doesn’t want to go through what he did last year. If Hoyer had a pair he’d tell Belli that if he wants to opt in that’s fine but he’ll be looking to deal him. The Cubs have way more options( Cheaper too) to cover Busch and PCA. Alcantara and or Caissie can play CF and Ballesteros could play 1B. He’s more of a break glass in case of emergency C at this point. If the Cubs want to stay below the Tax that’s fine. Hoyer needs to keep room to maneuver at the deadline not spend up to the Tax in the off season. Tanner Scott( LH closer or set up guy would be perfect to go with Little and Hodge and a C are really the only needs. Hoyer also needs to START OUT with a good bullpen instead of trying to piece one together as he goes. With Smyly, Belli and Hendricks gone there is more than enough money to do that plus get CC a decent bench for a change. The whole Wisdom, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni Tauchmann dynamic needs to be gone.
Yeah because PCA and Hodge and Little and Roberts haven’t moved the needle at all. And by the way what’s with Counsell leaving PCA batting 8th? Why isn’t he leading off since they’re done now? It’s dumb.
Mike you can’t change this persons opinion, it’s one of those rare clowns that think they are reasonable
Anyways I agree they should give PCA lead off experience because he’s been batting a lot better recently and has almost all the makings of a lead off hitter
If it was up to him nobody in AAA would ever make it to the Majors. He would spend, Spend, Spend on pieces of dung like Madrigal who was( Is) Still his hero or all the other dung pieces that adorn the roster. That’s what his hero Hoyer does. Come to think of it, Maybe it is Hoyer. Both of them think only their opinion is ever right. Hmmmmmmm. Oh darn he’s going to call me an internet terrorist again. Oh well,,,,,, I’ll get over it. Again.
I’m kinda getting tired of saying this, but Drasco is right. It’s the backup QB syndrome. He’s better than the starter cause you can’t compare his stats. It’s impossible to take anyone serious that uses the transitive property from AAA to MLB. I notice UncleDopey didn’t mention Mervis or Kilian… or Palencia or the garbage heap of AAA players that crashed at the MLB level.
BTW, I can’t wait to hear his reaction when the Cubs resign Hwndricks…
“If it was up to him nobody in AAA would ever make it to the Majors.”
That is a complete lie. Everything you said in that post is a misrepresentation of what drasco believes. As far as I can tell, he is interested in promoting any player if it improves the MLB team. I honestly don’t think he cares if Hoerner starts at 2nd or Shaw. I truly believe his interest is that the Cubs are a better team.
I do think the opposite of you. I believe you get a hard on for prospects because you spend $140 for the MLB package. You think that makes you an expert. Then you become a cheerleader for prospects. It actually just makes you a sad 69-year old fat bald dude that looks like Ron Jeremy and lives in a trailer park in Des Moines.
Sad tormented – drasco is actually fairly reasonable,, actually one of the more measured posters. I suppose it depends on your prespective. But understand, just because YOU disagree with someone, it does not make YOU more reasonable.
It will be fun when the Cubs bring back Hendricks and Wisdom… maybe Smyly. I hope they resign them just to see your meltdown. Popcorn time…Hoyer owns your tiny brain.
4 responses to 1 post. Who’s in who’s mind again?
Sure, I’m the one with the horrible take, and everyone that agrees with my previous comment is also an idiot
Because every take you do is always right
I agree. The Mariners have to off-load Castillo’s contract. He’s still good, but they cannot afford him and expect to add offensive help.
Yeah I think Bellinger makes sense for the Mariners. They don’t need his ability to play center because or Julio and Robles but they could use help at the corners at first.
As a Cubs fan…… we are hoping he opts out.
Cody B was the MVP of the league the last time he started the year as the everyday RF. Wasn’t until he moved to center did he start slumping. Even in 19
I don’t think positions affect offense, besides he’s good at defense wherever he goes
The league figured out bellingers long batting swing kind of like javier Baez
Center is tough on the body. I think using him as a part time center fielder like he’s been used recently is what makes sense. The White Sox should consider this with Luis Robert too. And Mike Trout.
They both have long swings but Baez main issue is the garbage swing decisions.
As it pertains to defense affecting offense for me playing CF is definitely more demanding than a corner spot. Belly was always making highlight reel catches. Didn’t he have shoulder issues?
I worry the same thing about Julio when he makes great plays or lays out for one. Lots of fun to watch but lots of risk.
I’ve never been a fan of the long swings. They look impressive but are so hard on the back. The only great player that I’m aware of to get away with a long violent swing for a long time without apparent physical repercussions is Bryce Harper.
Me to WtheThrill. And long swings seem to be in vogue these days. Orioles FO is definitely in to it. Drives me crazy. Old school keep it simple let the ball get deep and turn on it swing hitting approach seems out. Recently retired Detriot’s Cabrera the last of that great breed? I miss it.
Yup, Matt Williams also had the long swing. He was great for a fair bit but after he turned 30 only had one season with over a 100 OPS+. Give me the short sweet swing any day.
Bellinger profiles nothing like Baez.
He started 81 games at CF last year and had a higher OPS as a CF than other positions. 0.928 OPS as a CF vs 0.881 overall. Position narrative is played out.
He should take his money and not opt out. Surprised he has even posted these type of numbers. They could drop further next season.
Never been the same since 2020 season game 7 of the playoffs against the Braves when he dislocated his shoulder in a home run celebration. His production just dropped off afterwards
I may be in the minority but I don’t think the shoulder injury is as big of a factor of his decline. Looking at his max EV there is evidence that he lost some pop, no dispute there.
But plate discipline is what really got Bellinger out of whack. Chase rate is still bad and nothing close to pre-2020. He’s just choosing to keep it out of the air as much and focusing more on putting it in play the last couple of years. Cutting down Ks and better numbers overall vs 2021-2022. With that approach and still high chase rate he’s never going to come close to pre-2020 production.
Maybe they should try him in LF? See what happens.
One thing I noticed about the Cubs when I was looking some stuff up last night is their top 6 prospects, who btw are all in the top 100 overall, are projected to be ready in 2025. They are going to have to do something either clear room for them to play or trade some for established big leaguers.
This is a no brainer for Bellinger and say what you want about Boras but he did a great job of locking in Bellinger for that kind of money and having the opt outs after each season. Nobody is going to pay Bellinger $27.5 million dollars for next year and the Cubs are hoping he does opt out but if I’m Bellinger I stay for $27.5 million reasons and if he has a blow your doors off 2025 then opt out. Someone will pay him more than the $20 million he is signed for in 2026.
Plus the finish to the article that playing RF next year would mean he could not play CF for another team.
Bellinger is an excellent defender at all three outfield positions and 1B.
And why would his offers drastically shrink because he was 30yrs old instead of 29?
Bellinger is an excellent player but with both a history of injuries as well as underperforming.
This makes him a too unreliable to sign to a long term deal. I’d be surprised if any team gave him more than 3 years unless he agreed to a much lower AAV.
His current numbers are bouyed by a monster hot streak, without which his numbers would be downright mediocre. His best bet would be to take the guaranteed 27.5mil and try to have a better age 31 year next year.
BB Ref doesn’t always get this kind of thing right, but according to them, the Cubs can buy out Bellinger next season for $2.5M. If true, I’m surprised this wasn’t mentioned in the article. Buying him out is something I’d consider if I were Hoyer and were Bellinger to opt in. $27.5M is a lot to pay for a 114 wRC+. Should 2025 be similar to 2024, I think buying him out would be the smart move.
That means the Cubs pay him $2.5 million even if he opts out. The Cubs have no control over it
Not true.
That’s exactly what a buyout on a player option means.
Not really. A buyout is a choice for the club to either have a guy play for the contract amount, or void the contract by buying him out. If Bellinger opts out the Cubs owe him nothing, since his opting out is essentially his declaring himself a FA.
Exactly. Bellinger holds all the cards( Thanks again Jed). If Bellinger opts out after this year the Cubs owe him nothing. Bellingers 2025 salary is only 25 million with a 2.5 million dollar payoff even if Bellinger opts out. If Bellinger walks after 2025 he gets 2.5 million. That Jed, What a negotiator. Gives a guy who was floundering to even get a FA deal a winning lottery ticket. Atta Boy.
Zero possibility that Bellinger can better the salary owed to him by the Cubs next season if he opts out. As a free agent Bellinger isn’t even a consolation prize for whomever doesn’t get Soto. Smart play is to stay in the friendly confines and hope for better season next year
He likely he would get more a total guarantee by opting out, but I’d agree his AAVV might be lower on a longer-term deal.
His agent is the greediest person there is. He’s opting out. No doubt about it. Anytime can trade 47m for over 100 he’s doing it. Market much better this off-season than next. Even if gets 20m per year for 6 years it’s well worth throwing away 7m in 25
to guarantee an extra four years at 20 per. He’s done in Chicago. They need to add a slugger.
Where he could be a fit at is the Mets; if the Mets let Alonso walk; miss out on Soto than he could be a fall back option for first base; some right field and a occasional center field. Mets could afford the contract.
I could see the trade Bellinger for Jeff McNeil. The Mets are big on Acuna he takes over 2nd base the Mets get a more useful piece.
Mets get a crack at Bellinger in FA. Alonso might very well end up in Chicago.
Flawed theories run amok. What would the Cubs possibly want with Jeff McNeil when they have Hoerner, Shaw and Triantos.? That would be the dumbest trade in history. What would the Cubs do with Alonso? Busch is here, Ballesteros is a phone call away and his only real position is 1B, Granted a 5’7” by 5’7″ First baseman but here we are. The Cubs don’t need anybody else’s garbage. What they need to do is start trusting their own for a change.
Means he’ll be great next year. 24-35hr 800ops-840
It would be hilarious if boras told him to opt out and he eventually signed for less than what he was going to this upcoming season and belinger fired him too.
Did anyone hear boras explaining why Cody was worth 7 year contract last year. When he’s healthy he’s an all star caliber player. Ok Scott when he’s injured can we have a clause that pays him the league min? No? How come. Boras is t nearly as smart as he think he is and if the owners would stay out of contract negotiations and let the Ivy League gms do them boras wouldn’t have any clients left.
My goodness, Deeds is an awful writer.
First off, this disaster of a sentence: “Bellinger’s status among free agency’s top center fielders would be diminished further by the fact that, he would almost assuredly not be used in center field next year if he were to remain with Chicago.” A comma after “that” is completely wrong. How does an editor not catch this, if there even is one?
Then he makes a mockery of the English language by saying “impressive as Bellinger’s offense has been.” This is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. “As” can’t just be left out at the start of the sentence. Proper grammar isn’t optional; one can’t just leave it out because they feel like it.
Can Deeds already.
Latest on Cody: blazing up in a 7-11 parking lot with Woody and Willie?
Ballinger after night games: “dude, where’s my car??”