Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year deals with opt-out provisions in each of the past two offseasons and is poised to reenter the market for a third straight winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will opt out of the second year and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unforeseen circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his recent pair of short-term deals, noting that he’d certainly consider a longer-term pact but unlike many other players doesn’t mind the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I like to think it’s fun because it’s a new adventure,” Manaea told Nightengale. “I mean, it’s a little nerve-wracking when you’re not with a team most of the offseason, but it’s all part of the adventure.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s started 27 games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a sharp 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. After favoring his four-seamer over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his primary offering, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the increased usage of his slider (26%) at the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — while still throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The new pitch blend has proven largely effective. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s nearly a career-high strikeout rate and only issuing walks at a slightly above-average clip. He’s kept the ball in the yard (0.96 HR/9) and done a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.8 mph average exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit rate). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), but his opponents are making contact on those swings at the second-lowest rate of Manaea’s career (53.4%).
Manaea has long seemed capable of putting together this type of season. He regularly posts better-than-average walk rates and average or better strikeout rates. He was in the consideration to go in the top 10 selections of the 2013 draft but slipped to the No. 34 pick by the Royals due to a hip injury. That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a durable source of innings. He started a nearly full slate of 11 games in the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 games per season. The Giants frequently used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, hence that year’s 27 relief outings, but he still pitched 117 2/3 frames that year. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured list since returning from that 2018 shoulder procedure.
Given how well he’s pitched for much of the season, it’s hardly surprising that Manaea is intent on once again exploring free agency. A guaranteed multi-year deal should be there this time around, unless Manaea has come to enjoy the mercenary life and having say over his team on a yearly basis. Because he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is likely the ceiling, and three years seems more reasonable to expect. Even if Manaea “only” secures a two-year guarantee, he’d almost certainly do so while signing for an annual value higher than the $13.5MM under his current contract.
The more interesting question surrounding Manaea will be one of the qualifying offer. The Mets can extend a QO to Manaea if he declines his player option, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft pick if Manaea signs elsewhere. They’d need to be comfortable paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this year’s QO, however.
On its surface, that’s a drop in the bucket for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets. But the Mets have paid the luxury tax every season under Steve Cohen’s ownership, falling into the top tier of penalty in the past two seasons. RosterResource projects them for a $171MM figure next year that’s well below the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, but the Mets could see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free agency. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it won’t take much to push them right back up into luxury territory.
If the Mets return to the top tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be among Juan Soto’s suitors and will presumably pursue other high-end targets, particularly in the rotation — that would mean a 110% tax on that salary. That’d be a total of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even if they’re in a lower tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would still put Manaea’s total expenditure on a QO in the $34-41MM range. And, as a luxury-paying team, the Mets would only receive a comp pick after the fourth round in the event that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and huge tax bill might allow Manaea to hit the market without the burden of draft compensation, which would only further strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a strong season.
I’m not a Mets fan, but I’m sure Mets fans are OK with this as I am sure Mets fans are hoping Steve Cohen opens his checkbook to pay for C Burnes
No guarantee they’ll sign Burnes & they’ll also have to replace Severino and Quintana, so having a 1-2-3 of Senga, Manea, and Peterson woulda been nice.
I think cohen is more focused on giving Soto a stake in his hedge fund (is that how it works I’m not a stock market guy?)
But burnes could be a fallback option, I have to think cohen wants to bring someone in because he hasn’t opened the wallet in a year, that’s a long time for him
Not sure Burnes’ status is dependent on what happens with Soto. The Mets actively and aggressively pursued both Ohtani and Yamamoto last year. So they could do the same with Soto and Burnes.
But they weren’t pursued at the same time. The second was pursued only after they failed to sign the first. Unknown if money was available for both.
stymeedone… Stearns said they were after both in a late offseason interview. He was also asked how he reconciles pursuing them with the stingy spending that came after. His response was that those were transformational players who raise the level of the entire team. Had the Mets landed them, the org would have then gone on to spend even more money to put a complete team around them.
Once the Mets failed to land either, it did not make sense to dump big money onto what was available afterwards. He has also said on multiple occasions that while the priority is sustainable long-term competitiveness, the team goal should be to contend in each and every year – not at the expense of sustainable long-term competitiveness. But he believes they can do both at the same time. He acknowledges it is like threading a needle, but still thinks this org can do it.
If this team had been terrible this year, then he might’ve had the impetus to hold Cohen off and cut spending/rebuild for a year or two. But now that they’ve contended, there’s no way Cohen accepts seeing the team take a step back.
Cohen said this year was not supposed to be the big year, but I could see the Mets never rebuild again after 2024 with cohen because they have good prospects on top of a basically infinite payroll
If they always spend the most they should always be good right? All stars and quality players make a team good, even captain obvious knows that
Bill M: It still could be. Manaea could opt out and sign a new contract to return.
Hopefully, that’s what he’ll do. He’s been lights out ever since he copied Chris Sale’s arm motion.
Replacing Quintana shouldn’t be an issue.
I would much rather the Mets re-sign Manaea than chase Burnes, for a variety of reasons. Manaea will be much less expensive, he’s been very effective especially lately (cutting down on walks, changing arm angle, altering his pitch selection at the behest of Jeremy Hefner), and he’s a great clubhouse presence. On the flip side, Burnes will command more AAV as well as years. His K numbers have been declining (Manaea has more K/9). He has the same ERA+ as Manaea (119) and a similar FIP (Burnes 3.66, Manaea 3.75).
Give me Manaea at 3-4 years and whatever he costs (I would assume similar to Taijuan Walker’s deal) than Burnes at 6+ years and over $100 million. Saves money to go after Soto.
I’m not sure why you equate the pursuit of Burnes with the pursuit of Soto. Cohen does not need to ‘save money’ to go after Soto. Money will not stop the Mets from pursuing Soto, and signing him plus replacing the other departures/needs will put them over the threshold regardless. You’re also making the assumption that Manaea repeats this year’s performance, despite his inconsistent history.
Besides, even f the Mets do re-sign Manaea, they would still need another FOTR starter to move forward.
This is Manea’s best season, EVER. If it’s because Manaea has returned to the sinker or a better mix, great.
But if I’m the Mets, I wouldn’t be doling out $21M to Manaea, despite the market for starters.
He has pitched very well this year. 2 yrs $32 mil with a team option for a 3rd year is best I would do for him ..
BigV: How much of the “best you would do” would be coming from your bank accounts?
How much of the “best you would do” would be coming from your bank accounts?
=================================
One would need to know the overall team revenue, relative to what they individually contribute to know how much is coming from their own bank account.
But just for funnsies, have you ever calculated what percentage of team payroll you are responsible for?
Not a dime. You know what I meant. Smarta__
Agreed. Manaea has had 2 back-to-back decent years, but those down years that led up to it have to make you hesitant to shell out big $ and years. Kinda the same with Flaherty who was dogsh*t a year ago but is suddenly an ace. You really do need a crystal ball to know when players like this are gonna turn back into pumpkins.
Taijuan Walker got double the years and more than twice the amount of money. If you only do 2/$32 million, Manaea will be on another team next year. The difference, imo, is that Walker faded down the stretch in his contract year, meanwhile Manaea is finishing strong. I would expect a 3/$60 million or maybe even matching Walker’s 4/$72 million for Manaea.
Manaea’s older than Walker was so I doubt he gets the 4/72, but a comp toward what Bassitt got works. Wasn’t that right around 3/60 also?
Good point. I would definitely offer Manaea the Bassitt deal if he keeps pitching well. Then maybe stretch to the Walker deal if he declines.
Do you think they offer the QO? I’m thinking they do if they can’t work out the extension pre-FA.
Verlander and Scherzer will probably be out there again….. lol.
David Robertson for the pen.
Dom Smith to replace Alonso.
Juan Soto and Old-Timers day at CitiField.
( please everyone, before attacking, I am joking. )
Huh?
“It’s no wonder you’re an idiot”..Do communists really drink this early in the morning?.
WiffleBall
===========================
Congratulations on the dumbest comment of the day.
“Dumbest comment”…Give “Wiffle” some time because commies aren’t too bright and pretty soon it’ll only be the second “dumbest comment of the day”.
Johnny – Add O’Neill to the list, he appears to have “hit the gym” this year.
But then you’ve got guys like Verdugo who can’t be bothered, even in a contract year.
Wiff – I find it fascinating you view my comment about Dugie as a negative thing.
Don’t you think, at the very least, it’s a form of deception when players put forth more effort in their contract year?
I actually respect the fact he’s not pulling a Jose Reyes on potential suitors, clean or not.
You really should think twice before attacking people for what you perceive, especially if you don’t understand what they meant.
Are Mets fans ok with a starter announcing he’s leaving when they are 1/2 game out of the wild card? Just like Corbin Burnes last week talking about what he’ll look for in his next team while this team is in first place. What’s wrong with these guys?
Ozuna has a option that will be picked up
Of course he wants to leave.
LordD99: Not necessarily. He just wants to maximize his value in the open market, as he has earned the right to do.
What are you talking about?
Colon left the Red Sox without permission in mid-September 2008. When they pushed him, he said it was to attend to personal matters in the DR but it was not substantial enopugh to satisfy the team. They gave him a few days, but he never returned to the team at all.
I think its funny how the Mets made some better moves the offseason they were spending less money (Senga was a good get tho). Severino and Manaea were smart signs. There were a lot of good upside plays in the SP market last offseason tho. Teams make better decisions when they have some sort of payroll limitation they are working with (even if it is somewhat trivial compared to other teams limitations). It makes them use their brains more. Less impulse.
There were so many Mets fans complaining about Cohen dumpster diving, not opening his wallet and how much of a corrupt owner he is and bashing Stearns on his signings. So many were quick to forget how Cohen spent in previous seasons and how it backfired but look how the turn tables
I would pay a decent amount to sit in on negotiations between boras and teams when he is discussing alonso.holy delusion
Talk about NOT maximizing your walk year…
So glad Stearns is in.
Eppler would def overpay by 40% or so.
I think he goes to the Angels for more than he’s worth.
When Manaea is on he is a very good starter. When he is not he is pretty bad. He is on right now and will try and milk that for a good deal this offseason. He will probably get another deal similar to the one he is on now. Which makes opting out the correct decision.
I wonder if Manaea is angling for the qualifying offer. It would be a huge raise (>50%) while giving him the “new adventure” he craves. Even if he had a down year in 2025, he likely could sign a one-year deal for 2026 that would pay him more than $32 million for a two-year deal signed in the offseason..
League average SIERA is 3.801 and he’s pitching to a 4.02. Not terribly off the mark but at the same time, I’d be wary of offering some big contract to him, though, given his age and lack of sustained success.
I’m not sure where you’re getting the 3.801 number from. The league average SIERA is 4.03.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
@Squeeze32
Weird, I was looking at that same page an hour ago and it showed 3.801. Must have been a glitch.
Go back to when the Mets signed Manaea. I was the only one on MLBTR calling it a great signing. Looks like I was right, again…
Do you think anyone remembers who you are or what you said?
…or cares?!
LOL! I’d like to think I’ve made some good calls, but it’s a little odd to brag about the ones you got right. Discussing the ones you got wrong is usually more entertaining.
Bird over Judge anyone?
@JoeBrady I’m never wrong. How can I discuss something thats never happened?
Go find your comments on Zack Britton.
@BradCu 2 ,jealousy is a sin. Don’t be upset just because I’m a baseball expert and you’re not. Its ok, I’m always right. It gets tiring sometimes but I still manage to power through
Do you want a medal or a monument? How old are you, 11?
Aren’t you the guy who is constantly complaining about Stearns and dumpster diving? Yeah, you get no credit here.
I have my doubts about anything Nightingale writes. Having said that, they will make a good effort to head this off at the pass with Manaea. Especially if he leads us to the playoffs, and does well. The main thrust of the offseason is going to be the rotation…again. Then more focus on the bullpen. And I really don’t believe they are going to pursue Soto that hard. Soto isn’t a good defensive player. He’s all bat. And when you consider that we have Marte for one more season, Nimmo singed long term, Drew Gilbert in AAA, who may very well be ready after some winter ball, there really isn’t room for a player like Soto on the defensive side of things. Does a $50-60 mil per year DH really make sense? Let the Yankees or Nationals do that. I’d rather pay my rotation, and bullpen. If I’m going to pay a player that much money, he’d better be a good defender, along with his bat. What sense does it make to spend that kind of money on a player who gives back that many runs?
I hate the player option
if they opt in it means they suck
But contracts also often include team options, so what’s the difference?
Not a significant difference, but club options typically (almost always) include a buyout to the player if the club decides not to pick up the option.
geofft: But that’s just money. It doesn’t change the nature of the option.
Blue Baron.. I did say ‘not’ a significant difference.
That said, I think Brad is speaking from a fan’s perspective: in a player option, the payer controls his fate and the club gets the short end no matter what the player decides.. if he leaves they have to spend more money to replace his performance. If he stays, they’re stuck paying him more than he is worth. In a club option, the club has control and can decide if brining the player back is worth it, or can cut ties.
geofft: You are correct. Many fans, for whatever reason, are OK with the club being in control but not as much with the player being in control.
Perhaps it’s because the player is a readily identifiable individual and the club is a somewhat amorphous entity.
Personally, I take the opposite stance. I’m just as happy with the player being in control because that’s who we actually pay to watch.
Most of us root for the laundry, and would like to see the same players in that laundry if they are effective players. Personally I don’t take any solace in seeing a player who used to be on my team do well for someone else.
Jdt8312: But by the same token, you might see a player who previously played for an opponent doing well for the Mets.
Or a coach/manager like Buck Showalter or Carlos Mendoza.
It cuts both ways.
For me it’s rare that I root for former players, or managers. I will absolutely root for players that were opponents, and have signed with the Mets. But that’s because they are Mets now. I didn’t have a problem rooting for Glavine when he came here from the Braves. I love Bader, even though he was a Cardinal and a Yankee. There is less vitriol depending on the circumstances of a former players departure. But that’s the best I can do. I’m a fan of my team, and if a player or manager is no longer with the team, again, depending on the circumstances of their departure, I have varying levels of emotion about them. But I very rarely root for them. If you’re different, more power to you. Nothing wrong with it.
I don’t necessarily root for them, but I respect the right they have worked hard to earn to choose where they want to play, even if it means leaving as deGrom did and Alonso might.
I also respect their right to leave. I still respect their talent. But let’s face facts here, the Mets didn’t retain Deron because they knew his medicals, and offered 3 years out of respect. If Pete leaves, he leaves. He’s not wearing our uniforms anymore. I’m not a fan after that. I don’t want him to leave. But if he does, he does.
And if they opt out, they’ve very likely given you surplus value on the contract thus far.
Nice season but him totally blundering wild card game vs rays is what I remember lol
Nice observation, A’s fan. Actually, in 3 post season games he has pitched 7.2 innings, given up 13 hits of which 6 left the yard, and add 3 walks for a Whip of over 2.
Is he a post-season choke? It remains to be seen, if he gets another chance this season.
Asfan0780: If every player was evaluated based on a bad game/outing, there would be no one in the Hall of Fame.
Don’t forget; Verlander’s option won’t be kicking in for next year. The Mets will save another $17.5M thanks to that. That would bring their Roster Resource payroll down to around $153.4M heading into the off-season. The Mets are going to have plenty to spend.
@ mikeinnj THose numbers are at best quasi-reliable. And even at $153.4, they’d only have $90 mil to spend and a heck of a lot of holes/needs/replacements on which to spend it.
Santander
I’d prefer paying him $25 – 30 mil a year over $50 mil for Soto.
Before the torches and pitchforks come out, I am in no way suggesting that Santander is a better player than Soto. I would find more value in a 3 – 4 year contract at $28 mil AAV for Santander than 11 years at $50 mil for Soto.
I saw the Mets- White Sox series this weekend and it looks like Luis Robert has no interest in playing baseball. So no team is going to go after him on a trade-and-extend. Right now as a Mets fan I wouldn’t trade anything more than Brett Baty for Robert, and maybe not even that.
I want Bader and Winker back for sure.
I believe that the Mets will pursue bringing back Winker, Severino, Alonso, Iglesias and Raley. Drew Gilbert will most likely claim Bader’s roster spot, unless Bader agrees to a sizable hometown discount.
Baty’s situation is a little trickier, because every article I’ve seen states that the organization is still very high on his capability to bounce back as an MLB hitter. If that’s the case, they will probably platoon him with Vientos at 3B, and have Vientos platoon DH with Winker.
I 100% agree that Robert is not a viable option for the Mets. The options the Mets currently have in-house hold far more value than an uninspired, injury prone power hitter. Dude reminds me of Jason Bay..
Sevy loves NY and Mendy loves him. Manea is happy. I can see the Mets signing them both to 2 year deals with an opt out at 36-40 million each. Those two with Senga, Peterson, Blackburn and maybe Scott will be the rotation. Cohen is going for Soto. Not a frontline starter.
I think Sproat will be in that mix and may eventually be better than all but Senga. That could be a while, but I could see him on the club early next year.
Sproat is getting absolutely bombarded in AAA on a regular basis. He will overcome that at some point. But to talk about his timeline being early next year is just baseless optimism Again, listen to what David Stearns actually says about him.
@geoff looks like sproat already adjusting to AAA. Dominated last time out.
Oh, you’re right. One dominant start means he’s all set now. Because minor leaguers players never have hot games or streaks and then regress.
@geoff
Whats w the attitude? I said looks like he’s adjusting, not that he’s MLB ready.
Why wouldn’t Cohen go for both Soto and a frontline pitcher? He did that last off season. Let’s start with a reality check: The goal is to improve, not stand still. And this team has not actually made the playoffs yet. And even if they do, they might not get very far. So, yes, a frontline pitcher should be on the wish list. And if they if Manaea keeps pitching like this, I don’t think he takes that deal.
They can’t afford both and stay under the threshold, and I think that’s the primary goal this offseason. QO for Manaea and hope he takes it?
@ Ma4170 No one who matters has said that staying under was the primary goal. If they had a bad season, it probably would be. But now that they’re a contender, do you really think Steve Cohen will stand pat rather than try to move up? They can’t sign Soto and stay under without bringing back a weaker team.
They’d be foolish not to, they’re just not advertising it to the fans. Just like the Dodgers did last offseason. The penalties make it way too difficult to continue to build a strong farm, and they should take advantage while they can. But they can get Soto and still be under the threshold without weakening the team that much.
I don’t disagree that they should try and stay under. But I don’t believe thats what they will do. Not after what they did this season. They are no longer rebuilding. They’re slated to be some 80-90 mil under the threshold before arb raises. Soto alone will take up $45 million of that. Arb will take up at least $10 if not 20. That leaves them just $30 mil or so to replace Manaea, Sevy, Alonso, and half the bullpen. Baty and/or Mauricio will not replace Alonso’s off-year production – so the team is weaker there. Sevy and Manaea were on bargain basement deals. Replacing them will cost more.
Listen to what David Stearns says to the press in its entirety, rather than just seeing the sound bites and written reports that the press takes out of context. it gives a clearer understanding of what the Mets’ plan/intent is.
Well, we’ll see. They can also trade in offseason (and of course during the season) – could crochet be a possibility? I could see QO for manaea (which is an $8M raise) or a new deal. They’ll have senga peterson blackburn scott already. Im sure theyre hoping sproat will be up earlyish. Between diaz maton butto nunez brazoban Reid-foley megill the BP may only need one more piece.
Alonso big power but soto is so far beyond him all around its a huge upgrade, and i have a feeling mauricio will be very good in spurts (and its not like alonso is steady, hes very streaky too). Not quite ready to give up on baty (unless he gets traded).
I just think they’ll do all they can to stay under and still compete.
I’d like the Mets to bid up the Yankees as far as they’ll go.
The Mets should offer Manaea 2 yrs/$40mm or 3 yrs/$57mm – his choice. Then, if he doesn’t take it (I’d go up to $21mm/yr), hit him with the QO and raise the price for everyone else.
I think someone else mentioned this, but the Roster Resource number includes Verlander’s 17.5M, which won’t vest, so that comes off. Plus the current number includes Manaea’s 13.5M. So in reality if he opts out, they’ll be going in with $140M before arb raises and FA.
“Going in with $140M”…Assuming your numbers are reasonably accurate, the Mets should spend efficiently this off-season but also try to reset their penalty tax rate by staying under the CBT for at least a year.
That would allow them to decide if and when to take on more substantial payroll in the semi-near future. The Mets do have a so called “money advantage”, so they may as well try to efficiently use it to their best advantage.
Yes, that’s before any arb raises, non-tenders, etc. according to Spotrac and Roster Resource from best I can tell
Even if they “only” spend the $240M, that will still be an advantage over many teams as we know.
It won’t be an advantage over contending teams. And that’s where the Mets are now.
“Won’t be an advantage over contending teams”…I beg to differ, because how often will you ever see contenders like the Brewers, Orioles, Twins, Dbacks, Guardians and Astros up near the $300M(or CBT tax range) range of salary? Most years you can add Tampa to that mix and we all know Tampa’s payroll history. There’s always been contenders that don’t want to break the bank.
mlb fan Correct. But I was not referring to the total payroll. The $140 million (or so) base is already built in and accounted for. I was referring to the $90 million the Mets would have left between that and the threshold. And there are other contenders who do have that kind of money to spend… Philly, St Louis, LA, Boston, the Yankees, and SF… Plus any surprise newcomers to the spending game (no one ever thought the Padres would play in the stratosphere that they reached these past few years). Toronto and Detroit have money that they often choose not to spend. But either of them can decide to jump into the fray if they think it puts them over the top.
“That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season…”
Notably noted.
The Mets have over $100 mil coming off the books, I’d say reinvest it in Soto, C. Burnes, offer Severino and Manaea the QO. I would look into trading Marte and McNeil and replace them with Gilbert and Acuna, that reduces the payroll more to reinvest more into the bullpen. If they don’t resign Alonso, Vientos can play 1b, Acuna 2b, Lindor SS, Mauricio 3b, Gilbert LF, Nimmo CF, Soto in RF, Alvarez C. The rotation can be Burnes, Senga, Manaea, Severino and Scott,
@ jvent First the math: Soto and Burnes will cost a combined $80 million or so. Two QOs for Manaea and Sevy adds another $42 million. So you’re $20+ million over the cap. Marte (20 mil) and McNeil ($12 million) make only $10 million or so more than that combined, and you’re assuming that they can both be traded without the Mets eating some of their salaries. Even if they can, that leaves close to nothing to reinvest elsewhere and still stay under. And that still doesn’t account for arb raises.
Then you’re hoping without basis that Acuna, and Gilbert are ready and able to produce in the majors, when they’ve both posted mid-600’s OPS that are 100 points below that league’s average. And that Mauricio can come off a year-long injury and just jump in to the major league role when he had only five inconsistent weeks at that level.
So at the end of the day, the plan outlined weakens the team, leaves no room for filling holes, and probably till fails to stay under the main threshold.