It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”
Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.
“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”
Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.
“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”
Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.
Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.
It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.
He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.
As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.
He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.
Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.
In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.
Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.
Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.
What a hoot. He’s reported to spring training the last two years injured. Is it something to do with the trophy ? Oh well, I guess we’ll believe it if he does it for the whole season.
“Is it something to do with the trophy?” What does Kate have to do with this?
The ego on this guy! Just retire, it’s over. Ahahaha!
So, basically everyone
Go to de-troit! Clap clap clap-clap-clap go to de-troit!
I’m struck by the fact that the guy that Giants first-time-ever PBO Farhan Zaidi selected to be his first-time-ever GM, Scott Harris, ended up getting his own first-time-ever PBO job (3 years later) and has now taken Detroit to the postseason – while FZ himself just got fired! Oh, the irony.
I wouldn’t give Harris all the credit. His contribution is important, but this is an Avila constructed roster for the most part. Harris did add Sweeney, Malloy, Holton, Maeda, McKinstry, and I think, Ibanez. All the rest came from Avila, and that includes hiring Hinch, and Fetters.
I hope AL gets a job as a second in command somewhere. He was miscast as the head guy. He did draft his share of good players that are contributing right now.
I’d like to see him maybe come out of the bullpen. Perhaps a full season of starting is too much to ask, but coming in late in the game and throwing hard for an inning could be doable.
Won’t happen as he’s never pitched in relief except the playoffs on short rest.
It won’t happen because he’s going for 300 wins, which he will never get to coming out of the bullpen.
Realistically he needs 38 wins to reach 300, which means he would need at least 3 very productive seasons or 5 semi productive seasons to reach it. He has said he wants to play til he’s 45 which does fall in that window, but that largely depends on opportunities coupled with the body being as willing as the mind
To get 38 more wins, it will take a team with a good amount of run support, a good bullpen, and solid defense. The Red Sox starters could easily had 25-30 more wins that went to relievers because of all the blown saves.
1/$5M too much?
He’s not getting out of bed for that.
If Verlander will sign a deal for 8-12 million with a vesting option, the Astros should fall over themselves to sign it. Verlander knows what he’s doing and knows he will have an offseason to get fully healthy and will be chomping at the bit to prove the MLB that he still has it. I expect his 2025 season to be similar to his last Cy Young year. Because he was hurt so much in 2024, he has to know a 2025 contract is a show-me contract and I fully expect him to be 100% aggressive next season. Astros should sign him ASAP while they can get him for pennies.
I wouldn’t doubt ATL being interested, taking over a vet role on a short-term deal to pitch for a competitive team. He’s shown interest in ATL before, and they need vet presence if/when Fried/Morton move on. Would he be motivated to go after Cohen’s Mets?
LOL.
Include incentivies for 2025, e.g., for 100 innings, 120 innings, etc.
What’s up with some hate. this man has been one of the best pitchers of all time and he had one bad year in his 40s! He deserves to play another and another after that if he wants. If Rich hill can Verlander damn sure should
Saying he will have to take a massive pay cut from what he was making is not hate. Its reality. At this point, the question is whether he will sign for the most money, or the best opportunity to win?
Justin verlander? What does he have to do with the 77′ Yankees?
Don’t come to the dodgers
A short term contract for a pitcher with recent history of injuries. That seems like their type of acquisition. lol
He needs to get on the Roger Clemens plan. Join a contender mid-season. Take PEDs as necessary
This has Arte overpay written all over it.
$15MM + incentives. Done deal, Arte.
JV will sign late so his medicals clear.
A proven winner like JV gets a multi year deal from Arte.
About 6 weeks ago, a Tony Gwynn baseball card appeared in my car.
I took it to mean, that the padres, would win their first World Series this year.
Looks like it could happen.
They are solid. They’re going to be a tough out for any team.
Might be time to hang it up. Nothing left to prove except he stayed too long. Tom Brady syndrome. Give the younger guys a chance.
Tom Brady won a Super Bowl at 44.
It’s time for JV to reunite with the Tigers…he’d be a great option as their 4th or 5th starter and to mentor the young guys like Olsen, Mize and Jobe. Would love to see this reunion…Go Tigers, beat Cleveland!!!
That would be cool.
I see the nostalgic desire fr him to come home, but Chris won’t pay him or anybody else anywhere near what JV will command. We got his reincarnation on the team for anotherc2 years. I’d rather take that JV FA money and extend Skubs.
He won’t command much
There are guys on here who remember and reference Lassie….I can understand that. Lassie was a cultural icon……but wtf references and remembers Timmy……?
JV is more fixated on 300 wins than Johnny Damon was on 3,000 hits and the HOF. I like Justin, but at this point he’s pitching for stats and nothing else. Don’t end up like 1975 Bob Gibson (3-10. 5.04).
Nah. Let him kick around with a 5 and a half ERA for another half-decade. If there were better options, then the team would send those pitchers to the mound for the league minimum. Who are we to tell someone they can’t be Cleveland/Minnesota version of Steve Carlton?
Minnesota Carlton? ugh. That was sad.
Verlander will need another career resurgence to get to 300 wins. He’s 38 away. Not only will he need to pitch at least semi-decently to stick around long enough, but he’ll have to also be on teams good enough to get him wins.
To get that many wins, will he have to move to middle relief?
In other words, he is not leaving 35 million on the table.
What 35 million?
He would of got a 35 million QO if he pitched 140 innings or more which he didnt. So his injuries cost him 35 mil.
Would Verlander go back to Detroit. Myself wonder with Garcia, McCullers with Houston. McCullers the most. 3 seasons not pitching. I do not call late season in 2022 much. But I mean real time pitching. I really thought Houston might try to keep Kikuchi. Is he looking for a big deal. I love what JV has done for us. And fact Jeff Luhnow went and got him. We have had no true GM since. But we’ll see what happens this off season for Houston or the whole MLB. Also saw that Scherzer was not mentioned for Rangers. Him and Verlander competing for those strikeouts. But yes not sure if JV will get to that 300.
JV is going back to Detroit to finish his career
I’ve wanted JV to come home for the past 5 plus years. And now as fate would have it, he’s a FA and we’ve moved onto a youth movement at the same time.
Tigers fan here. We will take you back JV…. as a pitching coach if Fetters decides to manage next year.
He has made $400 million plus. I would rather go home and see the kids grow up. May coach them.
JV and Kate bought a nice place in Florida last year and great place in Manhattan.
The Mets train about 45 minutes away from that Florida home and play in NYC.
Steve Cohen has endless money because he can always commit more fraud and make more.
I think I’ve found his landing spot.
I bet Verlander is lol…..
Someone will be ok with letting him do just that for the right price. If he’s not looking for crazy money could end up being be a great pitching add for someone.
Any team that signs him knows it is a certainty that he will be going on the IL at some point during the season. It will just be a question of how long will the stint be and how many times will he be on the IL. No contender is foolish enough to rely on him to stay healthy and be a key part of the rotation. Big money gate attraction for a bad team or lottery ticket depth on a cheap k for a contender.
Somebody must have told Verlander the older you get, the better you get. Not so. Stick a fork in him.
Verlander to the Tigers. Book it. He can have Maeda’s spot.
Never should have pitched to him. Walk him, load the bases. SO, DBL play, end of inning.
Remember how badly Detroit floundered when opponents just refused to pitch to Miggie.
Kwan is a doubles hitter. Expect it. The Guadians HAVE NOTHING, other than Ramirez.
NOTHING.
The Tigers can win if they don’t pitch to Jose Ramirez.
Do to Cleveland what they did to Miggie in Detroit. Remember?
Just pitch around the guy and the Tigers can win!
I’m sure a bunch of minor league teams could use a broken down pitcher to draw fans. But I’m sure some dumb team will sign him for several million $$$ to pitch in 5-6 games over the course iif the season
He’s had a great career but it’s time for him to hang it up. He’s only taking up salary cap spaces at this point and isn’t benefiting his own health either
Spent most of his career with the Astros?? He spent 12 and a half years with Detroit?!?!