Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has exercised his $19MM player option for the 2025 season, the team announced. There was little doubt that Giolito would pick up the option after he missed the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery.
Last winter, Giolito was Boston’s big winter signing. It was a two-year deal with a $38.5MM guarantee, with the righty having the ability to opt-out after the first season.
He had a down year in 2023 and was surely hoping for a bounceback in 2024, which could allow him to return to the open market with more earning power. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow during spring training, as well as a flexor strain, ultimately undergoing internal brace surgery.
After missing the entire 2024 campaign, there was little drama about this decision. Rather than return to free agency, he’ll lock in his $19MM player option and be a part of Boston’s rotation mix for 2025. He might not be ready by Opening Day but should get back on the mound at some point.
The Sox are now losing Nick Pivetta to free agency, leaving them with a rotation core of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. They also have guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and others for the back end. They will likely pursue offseason upgrades but Giolito will be a midseason addition at some point. As will Garrett Whitlock and Chris Murphy, who also underwent elbow surgery early in the ’24 season.
When Giolito returns will be of importance for him and the club, as his deal with the Sox also includes a option for 2026. If he throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025, it’s a $14MM club option. But if he gets over that threshold, it’s a $19MM mutual option. Either way, the buyout is $1.5MM.
If Giolito has a strong bounceback, he will want to get over that line and return to free agency, but he’ll need to stay fairly healthy after his current rehab is over. If he has a decent season but falls shy of the line, he could be a relatively cheap rotation option for the Sox in ’26.
Giolito allowed a massive 41 home runs in 2024, bumping his ERA up to 4.88 even though his 25.7% strikeout rate was still strong and his 9.2% walk rate close to average. From 2019 to 2023, he had a 4.11 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate in almost 800 innings.
Shocking.
“Allowed a massive 41 home runs in 2024”
Question – What league did he play in.
That’s hard to do when he didn’t pitch in 2024
key – It was the “Visualization League” ….. the same one Casas took his dry swings in.
A season on mlb the show.
(That was sarcasm for those of you unable to discern it).
Monty next.
Yes, he may be mad at the Diamondback’s owner but not mad enough to opt out of the $22.5 million.
I say they give him the bum treatment
Wouldn’t shock me if Monty gets traded back to Texas and D Backs pay a lot of $$
Nah-he’s a good bounceback candidate. No reason to eat money. He was caught up in a greedy and overconfident quest to squeeze too many years/$……and the market gave him the bird.
No surprise here. Hoping he’s decent
He had the internal brace surgery, so he should be pitching next season. I think he’ll have a decent season.
Acoss – I think there’s a good chance he starts the season late, and then takes a bit to ramp up. Time will tell.
Fever,
I hope he gives your Red Sox at least half a season. He was great for the White Sox, rooting for him to be great again!
61-62 W/L 4.43 ERA for 33m, great ROI on this catfish!!!
red – He was 19-24 with a 4.89 ERA since 2022. He will be better when he’s fully healthy, but that may not be until the second half of next season if not later.
It was a horrible signing. His velocity and spin rate were way down and his ERA was way up, but the Sox thought they were getting a bargain.
FULL. THROTTLE.
Well said.
Sign Manaea, Walker and Scott. Trade Casas for pitching.
Signing manaea would be a bad idea
IMO The big 3 are too expensive. You would have to cut out other signings to pay them. After those three, you can find fault with any of the pitchers left. I feel Manaea is the best of the rest, and would come at a reasonable cost.
A trade is the best way to get a front line pitcher.
Maybe, if it is a reasonable trade.
not trading Casas for pitching. It makes more sense to trade Duran whose value is higher and will net a better return.
“better return”
Yes, better return and a bigger loss. Duran is the best player on the Red Sox and will continue to be in the future. Red Sox have the money now, so Free Agency should do the heavy hauling, not a trade.
The best players on the Red Sox for years to come are currently in AAA Worcester.
I agree that they should spend in FA but I don’t see Duran being the sox best player going forward. He’s almost 30 and may have peaked last year. I doubt he figures into their plans for a second contract. Better to sell high and get a haul that can help you now and into the future.
“are currently in AAA”
You mean the guys who’ve never gotten an MLB at bat? Maybe they will be, and they should not trading them right now either.
Red Sox have to get more right-handed and someone has to go: It comes down to Casas, Duran, Yoshida and Abreu.
I want to see D improvement.
1) Red Sox should move Casas and Yoshida, the two worst fielders of the four
2) Move Devers to DH (majority of time)
3) Sign Walker, one of the best defensive 1B in league
—————–
Team is more right-handed and much better defensively. Pitchers will want to play in front of that D.
At least one is and he plays the same position as Duran
I agree on this. He’s hard to replace, but there’s no guarantee that he will remain this good for long. Trade him for pitching
“no guarantee that he will remain this good for long”
What guarantee do we have from Casas, who’s only averaged 97 games in his two seasons? (shoulder in ’23 and ribs in ’24), Plus, his work ethic is not considered spectacular.
I doubt Casas will ever produce a 8.7 WAR. Something Duran has already achieved.
“At least one is and he plays the same position as Duran”
Do you mean prospects? And they’ll overlap?
My hopes for the OF in 25 and 26 would be:
———————
Duran LF
Anthony CF
Abreu, Raphaela RF
———————
Best Defensive OF in baseball.
Sure other players can play the OF, but they can also play IF as well.
Who has questioned Casas’ work ethic? he’s quirky and uptight people have a problem with his quirkiness but I haven’t heard anyone questioning his work ethic. As far a Casas trade goes you’ve made a pretty compelling argument for why the Sox would be selling low.
Trading Duran now would be selling high and getting the best return for a player who may not fit into the Sox long term plans.
“Who has questioned Casas’ work ethic?”
Copy/Pasted
“Red Sox rookie Triston Casas’ pregame routine including sunbathing and napping bothered some veterans last year, per @ChrisCotillo Casas says there was “clashes” about how he should act but he appreciated the veterans telling him how they felt”
“Trading Duran . . .”
I would never trade my best player based on what might happen in a few years. He’s the guy I try to build my young team around. And the best player on the team should always have a place where he fits.
To be clear I’m fine with trading either
Who among us hasn’t sunbathe or napped before a big day at work
How in the heck would Duran not fit into their long-term plans? He’s the best player on the team and a player that any team would love to have on their roster going forward.
Again that whole sun bathing nonsense is from over a year ago and speaks to uptight veterans having a problem with his quirkiness as opposed to a work ethic problem
As far as not trading your “best player” Duran only earned that distinction after one year of production and one year only. If he was consistently their best player over many seasons you’d have more of an argument.
See above. He may have been their best player last year but has yet to do that on a consistent basis. Also as far as not fitting into their long term the sox have redundancy in left field. And if he’s so desirable the sox should move him to get the controllable pitching they sorely need
*outfield not left field specifically
“He may have been their best player last year”
10.8 WAR over the past two years is better than anyone else. Devers’ 7.2 is second. So he’s the best position player combined for the last couple of years. He’s also trending in the right direction where as Devers and Casas are not.
I certainly consider him the best position player right now. And, assuming there is not a mega signing, he will be when the 2025 season starts.
I dont understand why dont agree with that. What position player do you fee is better right now?
“Who has questioned his work ethic”
“Again that whole sun bathing nonsense”
You pretended it doesnt exist. Then you say ‘oh that old thing’. Which is it? Did you never hear of it, or its old news? Rarely ever do sports writers talk about things like work ethic while players that are still on the team. Team access is their lifeblood and is easily lost. Do you really expect regular updates.
—————————————–
You seem to want to nitpick everything, yet never provide any specific information. My turn:
– Who is the best position player right now if its not Duran?
– What “logjam” in the OF? They will probably bring in a veteran this year to fill out the OF.
– What evidence do you have that Casas has suddenly obtained work ethic, and “that old thing” isnt still a concern?
He’s not that young. He’ll be a free agent on the wrong side of 30, so they aren’t likely to sign an extension and he’ll be expensive through arbitration if he keeps playing well. They also have a ton of outfield depth. He could fetch good pitching now which is most important.
“They also have a ton of outfield depth”
What depth? Duran, Abreu, Raphaela are your starters and Refsnyder is the only backup. There are also a couple of IFers that could play there, but would be out of position. I would prefer they are kept in the IF.
As of right now, they need to add another vet OFer until Anthony comes up. Trading away Duran, would definitely start the year in the wrong direction and force the Red Sox to add a much bigger vet to fill the void. Not to mention Duran’s lost production from the lineup.
Please list this “depth” that you speak of. Yoshida? Lol. Anthony? A 21yo who shouldnt be promoted until June or July?
There’s an old adage in building a stock portfolio:
If you sell all your winning (because your think they’ve peaked), what you’ll have left is a bunch of losers (hoping for turnarounds).
My point is you dont sell off your NVDIA because you think your DIS is going to turn around any day now.
———-
Red Sox should be able to compete in 2025 with the right additions. Selling off your best position player kicks that can down the road.
This past season yes. I disagree that he was their best player the prior season which he wasn’t.
“the prior season he wasnt”
I see what you did there. Duran would win in a one year period, or a two year period. — But ignoring that, I thought we were talking about moving forward.
Duran — 2.1 BWar in 2023, followed by a 8.7 BWar in 2024. Who do you consider is the Red Sox best position player going into 2025?
I’m not pretending the sunbathing thing didn’t happen. I’m rightly pointing out that it wasn’t that big of a deal back then and isn’t one one now and also pointing out that that doesn’t show some kind of lack of work ethic. just that he’s quirky. An of sportswriters go after players all the time for their lack of work ethic especially in boston. You never presented evidence that he lacked in the work ethic department. Just that he rubbed a way cranky veterans the wrong way be being different.
Again I never said that Duran wasn’t their best player last year. He was and I’m advocating they sell high because he may have peaked. As others have said given his age it doesn’t make sense to extend him.. And yes there is logjam in the outfield with the best prospect in baseball waiting an another top 10 prospect in Anthony and Campbell respectively (LF potentially for campbell) along with the players on the big league roster.
Lots to unpack
Casas conditioning:
My point has nothing to do with “quirkiness” or “sunbathing”, the fact that he is sleeping or sunbathing (not working) around the other players while they’re busting hump, tells me something about his makeup. I dont want to go to the gym and find an employee taking a nap on a yoga mat during his break. I would definitely question that persons work ethic too, regardless of whether he’s doing it in a quirky way. The fact that multiple veterans had an issue with it tells me it was a problem to teammates.
To take a step further I’ll submit “Dadbod” from August of this year (in link). And dont get lost in the stuff he’s wearing on his head, I could care less what the stuff he’s wearing. LOOK AT HIS BODY, thats not the body of a professional athlete who plans to be around for a long time. He is definitely not spending three hours a day strenghtening and conditioning, like he should be.
reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1f2vf0r/highlight_t…
Duran:
You again only want to talk about the past. So I’ll assume you are avoiding it because it contradicts your earlier point of “I dont see Duran as the best player moving forward”. Duran is the Red Sox BEST PLAYER going into 2025, therefore he should not be traded.
Also on Duran:
Who’s talking about an “extension” for a player not reaching Free Agency until 2029? Im proposing moves for the 2025 season. Let him walk in 2029. It. has zero weight with what moves the Red Sox should make in the 2024/25 offseason.
Anthony:
Anthony is 21 years old and will be in the minors for (at minimum) the first few months of next season. A trade of Duran would affect the team immediately. Your outfield would be Duran, Abreu and Raphaela with terrible depth behind them. I would not start my season that way.
Campbell
Kristian Campbell is primarily an infielder during his minor league time (963 inn played in IF, 253 inn played in OF), The team should start with seeing if he can handle the infield, where he is more needed and has greater value to the team. Building your 2025 team, with the assumption that Campbell is in the OF makes no sense.
even more to unpack. I’ll leave the Casas fat shaming alone which is pretty weird. He doesn’t need to look like Tyler O’Neil and I’m fine with that. as far as him being lazy MLB stadiums literally have nap rooms. Plenty of players get to the park early do their thing take naps watch film etc. That being part of his pre game routine doesn’t say that he isn’t working hard. it was a ridiculous non story at the time spoke way more of the uptight veterans who btw way largely quit at the end of that season and in no way is evidence of a lack of work ethic.
As for Duran yes I talk about the past because while it doesn’t guarantee future success or preclude it, it does provide a guide as to player performance. Duran has not had the level of success consistently at big league level. He might maintain or he may have peaked. That doesn’t change the fact that he would net the best return for the sox. Also moving Duran doesn’t happen in a vacuum. You’re assuming if they trade duran they wouldn’t make other additions like a Tyler O’Neil type of move to fill out the OF on a one year deal. And while you may be focusing on 2025 I’m taking an approach the includes 2025 and beyond where adding pitching is the most present now need and future need for the red sox. Duran helps you get there.
As far as Campbell going to LF might be his ultimate destination. As an infielder he’s pretty much limited to 2B. In his case I’m necessarily talking about for next year but the way he played throughout 2024 may have him knocking on the door sooner rather than later
“Fat shaming”
Lol. You keep complaining for more “evidence” and when I give more evidence its now “fat shaming”. I hope I didnt hurt your feelings.
“Duran”
-You’ll only talk about Duran in past tense because he is obviously the Red Sox best player moving forward.
“Duran will net Best Return”
Hes the best player on the team on a cheap contract, of course he would net the best return. But he would also be the biggest loss, and most difficult to replace. Something you cant see.
“Focus on 2025”
Actually my entire point has 2025 and 2026 in mind. As I said before, my OF for those years is Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Cedanne for both years. But, youre being very selective in what you read. Whereas, youre talking about the re-signability of Duran in 2029. Way too far in the future to worry about in this off season.
“Campbell limited to 2B”
Campbell played every position on the diamond except C, P and 1B. Youre the one who has come to specific position (outfield), not me. I see him as a super utility.
Yeah but kinda sus when he was all greased up and using one if those reflective screens to steal all the rays. Tho he had a ready excuse which may have been due to a massive understanding. “The scouting report was on understanding how to get the Rays. So I got some Rays. Where’s the problem?”
Disagree all you want, but they will likely trade from the outfield to make room for Anthony. A lot of teams would wish for their outfield
“Disagree all you want”
They might very well deal from the OF. You didnt say anything thats not true. Also, it will probably be Abreu and not Duran.
I dont agree if they do that though. Just as Seattle fans dont want the their team to deal from their strength of Starting Pitching. I say the Red Sox should keep their OF, it really isnt that crowded.
Thing about Worcester, “it’s the sauce!!”
Typical Boras. When are owners going to get a brain?
Scott Boras isn’t Giolito’s agent, it’s CAA.
Brinks job!
Did I miss something? He really should be ready for spring training. He didn’t have full Tommy John or anything
They take forever nowadays bringing these pitchers back. It was ridiculous how long the Rays waited to activate Baz last year.
Biggest no-brainer off the offseason right here
The ink on his signature was dry at 12:02 a.m. this morning.
He really had to think about it long and hard.
“Good thing Red Sox signed me to 40 mil without a medical exam or physical” Lucas Giolito
..said no one ever.
But when you’re looking at $40 million, and they ask you, does this hurt, you say,
“Oh no, not at all. Feels great.”
I laughed when we signed Giolito. We signed a pitcher coming off a bad injury 38.5 million to pitch for one year, if healthy, with no idea what we were getting. If he didn’t pick up the option we signed a guy to a 19+ million deal to not pitch for us. If he pitches well, he is a free agent and already knows he can get a baseline of 19+ million to not pitch at all, so what will he ask for to pitch after doing well?
Anyway, just another dumb signing. If he wins the cy young next year I would still say what do you expect for 38.5 million to pitch one year?
At least you can’t blame it on the whipping boy Bloom.
William that’s not what happened. Giolito was actually coming off seasons of 184, 161, and 178 innings pitched. He was actually quite durable and no real sign of injury. He had poor 2023 season where gave up a lot of home runs and as a fly ball pitcher has always been somewhat susceptible to the HR. His fastball velocity was actually up in 2023 over 2022. In short there was no red flags of injuries. He was signed to a prove it type contract since he had a poor season before free agency. So in summary no Breslow didn’t sign a pitcher coming off a bad injury and there was no indication that he was damaged goods.
Ugh. Lucas Giolito was a near consensus number one pick in the draft and fell to 16 because of persistent elbow issues that gave all the best draft picks concern.
He eventually got the Tommy John and had a pain free season when he returned but started feeling issues in the elbow within 2 seasons again. Between his knee, his stomach strain and the elbow acting up he had a tough season and a half heading into this contract. The fact his elbow was reinjured, and he would require yet another surgery and missed season wasn’t shocking to anyone that follows the White Sox, or watched pitches flatten out, and his control weaken considerably over the year.
It was a surprise to Breslow and the team he missed the year, but it was predictable if you watched him over his last 20 starts crumble into one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. Thats right. We signed a guy with persistent elbow issues that was statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball and that you could visibly see pitch by pitch why he was.
I hope he has a full recovery, but don’t try to convince people Giolito was not exactly what we all could see and explain away the near certainty of why he might have gone from great to the worst.
Another example of overpaying for past performance. Glad my team is not stuck with that contract!
It’s a two-year contract. They won’t be stuck with it long.
Why be stuck at all when several of the other options were the same price or cheaper, able to actually pitch, and did well? Remember that we lost out on signing what ended up being the aces of the Royals, and Cubs. Several mid-tier pitchers went on TO ACTUALLY THROW BASEBALLS DURING GAMES very well this season at extremely affordable contracts.
The idea that we signed a guy to that big a contract to knowingly not pitch a single inning and saw that as a better option than a pitcher being physically able to be on a mound, contribute, push a starter into the bullpen, and eject the worst pitcher in the bullpen is baffling.
Giolito got hurt after he signed with Boston. Wacha is a big injury risk. Lugo is an older player converting from reliever to stater. Not a great bet that he would pitch the whole season. Giolito had been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball until he got hurt after signing with Boston.
Once again William your facts are wrong Giolito was not signed knowing he wasn’t going to pitch. In fact he did pitch in the preseason but injured his arm midway through preseason. He was signed to do 1) Have a bounce back season and 2) soak up innings.
Did you watch him two seasons ago? He was the worst pitcher in the game and got worse and worse. I wouldn’t have signed him under any circumstances. He looked like damaged goods. He pitched like damaged goods. I was a pitcher, and you know when a guy is off his mechanics or struggling to throw free. He was struggling. Signing him was the risk that what you were seeing was real. I know he wasn’t a DL signing. My point was he was going to be a DL pitcher, and your eyes were the proof. I am not walking it back, I am stating that there was no way he was pitching healthy, and if he is damaged and trying to pitch through it, he will break down, and he did.
My post was more about the 38+ million gamble and the alternatives that perhaps did not have blatantly visible issues, or that the risk/reward wouldn’t be so severely stacked towards risk for 38.5 million.
If it came off that I thought he was hurt and would not be able to pitch because he was placed on the DL I apologize. I know he wasn’t a DL signing. I did know he was hurt without a shadow of a doubt and pitching through it due to my eyeballs, but I had no guarantee he would miss the year. If I was Breslow, I would have guaranteed the fans I would not touch this guy for that amount of money for any reason in the world.
Just an aside, but the day I finally blew out my shoulder and tore both the labrum and rotator cuff I had been pitching through pain for months. My velocity had never been better, ticking up nearly 4 mph and the hardest pitch I had ever thrown was the pitch before my last. So, anyone trying to bring it up velocity (not aimed at person I am answering) save the argument for people that know nothing about pitching.
What matters is that an injury robs your stuff, your feel, your ability to repeat, control. Not altogether, but in increments till you are not pitching like you have always pitched. Giolito was a hot mess of damaged goods. The bomb just went off is all.
William not saying you are 100% incorrect but you also fail to mention the breakup and ultimately divorce in 2023. It’s really hard to know how that ways on someone psyche. He was really bad in the second half while that can be an indication of injury that doesn’t have to be the case. His walk percentage didn’t go up much there wasn’t much difference except in the amount of barrels he gave up. I much confess I didn’t watch him much since I only watch Red Sox and Red Sox minor league games.
Craig Breslow is the guy who brought him in and he is the HBO but more importantly he’s an ex big leaguer and a an ex big league pitcher to boot he’s also a smart guy. I don’t think he would give a pitcher that contract if he thought he was damaged goods. I’m sure they also put him through a comprehensive physical to determine his arm health. I’m not saying he possibly could have been damaged goods but imo it’s far more likely it’s just one of those things. I have to believe that Breslow had a better idea than anyone that is posting to this site.
I understand your point, however if I can clearly see that a guy is pitching with issues, I would hope at least someone in the Red Sox organization has a clue at this point.
It was the guy’s free agent year. There was zero chance he was going let suiters know he was damaged goods. What you are saying applies to minor league contracts, and swing men you bring on for depth. You don’t hand 19 million a year to arguably the worst starting pitcher in major league baseball his free agent year and not wonder why he is the worst pitcher in major league baseball all of a sudden.
Again, for context. We signed the worst major league starter in the sport of baseball to a two-year 38+ million contract over two years and the idea here is that the Red Sox didn’t wonder why he had transformed into the worst starting pitcher, and were counting on a healthy bounce back year based on a family issue being the reason he was the worst starting pitcher in baseball? Would we really want to count on that healthy version either?
33 million to suck, where do I sign!!