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Poll: Who Will Lead The League In Stolen Bases?

By Leo Morgenstern | June 12, 2025 at 12:53pm CDT

By this time of year in each of the previous two seasons, the players who would go on to lead their respective leagues in stolen bases were already atop the leaderboards. As of June 12, 2024, Elly De La Cruz led Brice Turang for the NL lead by 10 steals, while José Caballero led Bobby Witt Jr. for the AL lead by three. De La Cruz would finish the year with an MLB-leading 67 swipes, while Caballero would finish atop the Junior Circuit with 44. The year before, Esteury Ruiz held a comfortable lead in the AL with 31 steals on June 12, and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 28 put him well ahead of the NL competition. Acuña would go on to lead the majors with 73 stolen bases, while Ruiz would lead the AL with 67 of his own.

That being said, there is plenty of season left to play and plenty of stolen base excitement yet to be had. By this day last year, Shohei Ohtani had only stolen 15 bases, putting him on pace for 35 by the end of the year. He famously finished with 59, en route to the first 50-50 season in MLB history. In contrast, Witt was on pace for 44 steals at this time last season. If he’d kept that up, he would have tied for the league lead. Instead, he only swiped 12 more bags over the rest of the season, finishing with a mere 31. With all that to consider, let’s take stock of the stolen base leaderboards and try to figure out who might sit at the top by the end of the year.

Looking to defend his AL stolen base crown, Caballero currently leads the majors with 25 steals. He is one ahead of Oneil Cruz for the MLB lead and four ahead of Witt and Luis Robert Jr. in the AL. So, is the Rays utilityman the clear frontrunner (no pun intended) to lead the AL once again? He’s been running more often this season than last, and he’s been safe at a higher rate. As things stand today, he is the only player in the majors on pace to reach 60 steals. No other AL runner is on pace for more than 50. What’s more, he’s been especially hot as of late, with 16 steals in 17 attempts over the past month.

Yet, if it weren’t for all the bases Caballero has already stolen, I don’t think anyone would peg him as a likely stolen base king. His sprint speed has declined notably in each of the past two seasons, dropping from the 90th percentile in 2023 to the 75th percentile in 2024 and now the 63rd percentile in 2025. Similarly, his average home plate to first base time has increased. This year, 84 qualified runners (per Statcast) have a faster average home-to-first time than Caballero. In addition, he hasn’t “bolted” at all this season. As defined by Statcast, a bolt is any run where the runner’s sprint speed is above 30 feet per second in his fastest one-second window. Caballero bolted five times in 2023 and five times in 2024, but he has yet to bolt at all in 2025. For context, 103 runners have bolted at least once this year, while Witt leads the majors with 47 bolts.

Indeed, Witt is much faster than Caballero in every measurable way. In addition to bolts, Witt leads the majors in sprint speed, while his home-to-first time ranks sixth. (All five players ahead of him are left-handed hitters, which gives them a slight advantage in getting out of the box.) Moreover, Witt is also a vastly superior hitter to Caballero. Not only does that mean he reaches base more often, giving him more chances to steal, but it also means he plays more often and hits higher in the batting order, giving him more chances to reach base. According to Baseball Reference, Witt has already had 121 stolen base opportunities this year, to Caballero’s 64. There’s a good chance that gap will only increase; Witt is underperforming his expected on-base percentage by 25 points this year, while Caballero is overperforming his xOBP by 12 points. The worse Caballero hits, the less likely he is to see playing time in Tampa Bay, while Witt’s spot in the two-hole of the Royals lineup is secure. Caballero has 47 steals to Witt’s 33 over the past calendar year, despite playing less often, typically batting lower in the order, and reaching base at a lower clip. That certainly seems like an argument in Caballero’s favor. On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore Witt’s superior skill set.

Somewhere in between those two is Robert. His sprint speed ranks in the 89th percentile, while his nine bolts put him among the top 30 runners in the league. He doesn’t run quite as well as Witt, but he’s been faster than Caballero. Still, it’s surprising to see Robert so high on the stolen base leaderboard. He has never stolen more than 23 bags in a season, which means he’s just three steals away from surpassing his previous career high. Robert is keeping pace with Witt and Caballero right now, but he stands out. We’ve seen both of them steal upwards of 40 bags in a season before. We’ve never seen this kind of stolen base prowess from Robert. All the more interesting, he has stolen all these bases despite slumping badly at the plate. His on-base percentage is a career-worst .269, putting him among the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the sport. Due to his low OBP, he has only had 64 stolen base opportunities this year. That’s the same number as Caballero, even though Robert has taken 66 more trips to the plate. In theory, this is a point in Robert’s favor when it comes to his chances to lead the league in steals. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine his OBP will remain this low all season. He’s only two years removed from being a well-above-average hitter, and his xOBP is 43 points better than his actual on-base percentage. If Robert starts reaching base significantly more often and continues to steal at such a high clip, he could blast ahead of Witt and Caballero.

Another AL contender to keep in mind is José Ramírez. The veteran has never led the league in steals, but his 263 career stolen bases rank fourth among active players. He topped 40 steals for the first time last year and has already swiped 20 bags in 2025. That puts him on pace for a career-high 48 in his age-32 season. Finally, Chandler Simpson is a dark horse in the race. The Rays rookie didn’t make his debut until mid-April and has been playing at Triple-A for the past two weeks. Even so, he ranks fifth in the AL with 19 steals this season. Considering he stole those 19 bases in just 35 games, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the Rays waited to call him up again until after the trade deadline and he still ended up pacing the AL in steals. After all, we’re talking about a guy who swiped 104 bags in the minors in 2024.

The competition is more straightforward in the NL, where three talented young speedsters enjoying strong seasons rank 1-2-3 on the stolen base leaderboard. Oneil Cruz is just three steals ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL lead, while last year’s stolen base king, Elly De La Cruz, is hot on their tails. Two-time NL stolen base king Trea Turner is close behind in fourth place, while Victor Scott II, arguably the fastest runner in the Senior Circuit, is fifth. All told, those five players are separated by just six steals.

Cruz leads the way with 24 steals, despite having missed a handful of games here and there with minor injury issues. On a per-game basis, he sits comfortably ahead of all qualified NL players, and he’s been successful on all but two attempts. Crow-Armstrong is slightly faster, according to both sprint speed and home-to-first time. However, his on-base skills are poor, which will limit his opportunities to steal. As for De La Cruz, he was faster than either Cruz or Crow-Strong in 2023 and ’24, but he’s been a bit slower this season. That could be due to a minor leg injury he has played through (per reporter Charlie Goldsmith). As he regains strength, perhaps De La Cruz will start stealing at the same pace as last year, leaving everyone else in the dust. At his best, De La Cruz moves faster than Cruz and reaches base at a higher clip than Crow-Armstrong.

Turner and Scott rank just below those three on the stolen base leaderboard, and their names aren’t quite as buzzy. Still, they’re not to be forgotten in this conversation. Turner led the National League in steals in both 2018 and 2021. He is in his thirties, but he remains one of the fastest players in the game. His sprint speed is tied for third among qualified NL runners, while his 42 bolts rank second in the Senior Circuit. He has also received more plate appearances and has a higher OBP than any of Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Scott is the only NL runner who ranks ahead of Turner in both sprint speed and bolts. His 18 steals are one fewer than Turner’s 19, but his success rate is better; Scott has only been caught once, while Turner has been gunned down on five occasions. Yet, Scott is not the same caliber of hitter as Turner (or as Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, or De La Cruz).

Last but certainly not least, I’d be remiss were I not to mention Ohtani. From this date onward in 2024, Ohtani stole 44 bases. If he were to do that again, he would finish with 55 steals this year, while Cruz is currently on pace to finish with 56. Another second-half surge from Ohtani is unlikely, to be sure, but it’s a possibility worth mentioning. We know he’s capable of pulling it off.

So, who do MLBTR readers think will lead the AL and NL in stolen bases this season? Have your say in the polls below:

Photos courtesy of Philip G. Pavely and Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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The Opener: Misiorowski, Chisholm, Freeman

By Leo Morgenstern | June 12, 2025 at 8:46am CDT

Here are three things to follow around Major League Baseball today:

1. Jacob Misiorowski to debut:

Brewers top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski is ticketed to make his MLB debut this evening as Milwaukee welcomes its division rival from St. Louis for a four-game set at American Family Field. The 23-year-old Misiorowski will face Cardinals ace and 13-year major league veteran Sonny Gray as Milwaukee looks to take advantage of this series to jump ahead of St. Louis in the standings. The Brewers are currently half a game back of the Cardinals, while the Cardinals are five games back of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

Misiorowski was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season and widely considered the most promising pitching prospect in the Brewers organization. Despite several injuries, the Brewers’ rotation has been a strength this season, much like it was last year. They will hope that Misiorowski – who has pitched to a 2.13 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings at Triple-A – will help their staff continue to flourish.

2. Yankees monitoring Jazz Chisholm Jr.:

Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., who returned from an IL stint just last week, exited yesterday’s game early with what the team later told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) was “left groin tightness.” According to manager Aaron Boone, the Yankees aren’t overly concerned, but considering Chisholm felt discomfort while running the bases, they’ll continue to monitor him and see how he feels before this evening’s game against the Royals. Chisholm has been on fire since he came off the IL last Tuesday, batting .346 with a 1.015 OPS and four stolen bases in eight games. He has also returned to playing third base, after having moved back to second to start the season. His lefty bat, strong baserunning, and defensive flexibility have made Chisholm a terrific asset for the Yankees since he arrived ahead of the deadline last summer, so the team will surely hope he doesn’t need to miss any more time.

3. Freddie Freeman playing through quad injury:

Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman suffered a quad injury Tuesday, which manager Dave Roberts relayed to reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). The skipper suggested the injury was manageable, and indeed, it wasn’t enough to keep him out of the lineup on Wednesday, when Freeman went 1-for-4 with a walk and a run. However, the injury prevented Freeman from running at full speed on a double play ball Tuesday, and Roberts has told him to “not go crazy on the bases” (per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). While Freeman is no stranger to playing through pain, his latest injury issue is certainly something for the Dodgers to monitor. Hopefully, today’s off day will help him recover before this weekend’s upcoming series against the division-rival Giants.

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The Opener

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Poll: Which Team Has Been Hit The Hardest By Injuries This Year?

By Leo Morgenstern | June 11, 2025 at 1:30pm CDT

Injuries are an inevitable part of baseball. According to the RosterResource Injury Report, there are currently 229 players on major league injured lists. That’s just under one-third as many as there are on active rosters. It works out to about seven or eight injured players per team. Some injuries are predictable or preventable, while others are the result of pure bad luck. In any case, no team can avoid using the IL entirely, but the most successful clubs are those that can minimize injuries, like last year’s surprisingly successful Tigers and Royals, or find ways to overcome them, like last year’s World Series champion Dodgers. As the 2025 season inches closer to its halfway mark, does one team stand out as the most affected by injuries this year?

The most obvious answer is the Dodgers, who currently have 14 players (all pitchers) on their major league injured list, the most of any team. Since the beginning of the season, the Dodgers have placed 22 players on the IL, which is the highest total in the National League and the second-highest in the majors, behind only the White Sox (23). All of those players have combined to miss 960 games in 2025, according to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger. That is far and away the highest total in the sport. The Mets rank second with 695 cumulative games missed. The 265-game gap between the Dodgers and Mets is roughly the same size as the gap between the second-ranked Mets and 20th-ranked Mariners (441 games missed). If that’s not enough to illustrate just how many players the Dodgers have lost to the IL, consider this: They have already lost more player games to injury through 68 games in 2025 than a handful of teams lost throughout all of 2024.

What’s more, it’s not like we’re just talking about injuries to depth arms or bench bats. Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell has been out with shoulder inflammation since his second start of the season. All-Star starter Tyler Glasnow hasn’t pitched since the end of April. He, too, is nursing a shoulder injury, as is rookie phenom Roki Sasaki. Several key bullpen pieces are out as well, including Blake Treinen (forearm tightness) and Evan Phillips (Tommy John surgery). And of course, none of the IL stats I cited above include Shohei Ohtani, who has not been able to pitch so far this year.

Yet, in terms of total value taken away by injuries since the start of the 2025 campaign, Baseball Prospectus estimates the Dodgers have only lost the third-most projected WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). WARP is only one way to measure value, and projected WARP is just that: a projection. Still, it’s worth considering that just because the Dodgers have lost the most games to the IL, they haven’t necessarily lost the most value.

The two teams that are ever-so-slightly ahead of the Dodgers in projected WARP lost to injury are a pair of AL East rivals: the Yankees and Orioles. The Yankees are without ace Gerrit Cole, who underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year winner, has also been out all year as he nurses a lat strain. On the position player side, elbow injuries have kept designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton off the field all year, though he recently started a rehab assignment. More Yankees who have missed time at some point include Jazz Chisholm Jr., Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, DJ LeMahieu, and Marcus Stroman, while closer Luke Weaver recently landed on the IL with a hamstring strain.

As for the Orioles, they have been without Grayson Rodriguez all year. He first went on the IL with elbow inflammation before suffering a lat strain that set him back further. Albert Suárez has been out since his first appearance of the season with shoulder inflammation, while Zach Eflin also missed significant time early in the year. In terms of position players, the Orioles are currently without Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle, Gary Sánchez, and Jorge Mateo. Others who have missed time this season include Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Cedric Mullins, and Gunnar Henderson.

Ultimately, all three of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Orioles are neck and neck in value lost to injury, according to Baseball Prospectus. However, I have to wonder if anyone can truly argue the Yankees and Dodgers have been “hit hard” by injuries this year. They’re each in first place in their respective divisions and rank among the top five MLB teams in winning percentage and run differential. According to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, they have the highest playoff and World Series odds in their respective leagues. Despite all the players they are missing (or have missed at some point), they are thriving. I would make a similar argument about the Mets. They have also lost their fair share of players to injury, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and A.J. Minter. Nonetheless, the Mets have the best record in the National League, and no team in baseball has given up fewer runs.

The Orioles, on the other hand, have severely underperformed expectations. They sit in last place in the AL East, and their 26-39 record has them looking like potential sellers at the deadline. While their bats have been disappointing, pitching has been their downfall so far. Perhaps they wouldn’t be so far out of contention with a healthy Rodriguez leading their rotation.

To that point, the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger also shows the percentage of a team’s projected WARP lost to injury. By this metric, neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers (and especially the Dodgers) rank as highly. Think of it this way: They’ve both lost a lot of good players to the IL, but those losses haven’t hurt them as badly as they might have hurt other teams, because the Yankees and Dodgers have such talented rosters. As you might expect, the Orioles still rank highly; they’re second in MLB in percentage of projected WARP lost to injury. However, by this metric, a new top contender emerges: the Brewers.

Pitching injuries plagued the Brewers last year, and they have continued to be a problem in 2025. When the Brewers signed Brandon Woodruff to a two-year contract during the 2023-24 offseason, knowing he would likely miss the entire 2024 season recovering from shoulder surgery, they were surely hoping he’d pitch significant innings in 2025. So far, that hasn’t been the case. He was hoping to finally make his 2025 debut this week before a right elbow contusion foiled his plans. In addition to Woodruff, Brewers starting pitchers who have hit the IL at some point this year include Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Tobias Myers, and DL Hall. Milwaukee is also missing a pair of outfielders, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. Finally, star catcher William Contreras has been playing through a fractured finger. He hasn’t missed any time, but his injury almost surely explains his uncharacteristically pedestrian performance at the plate.

The Brewers are also in a very different position than either the Yankees and Dodgers, who seem all but guaranteed to make the playoffs, or the Orioles, who have played so poorly that they might still be under .500 even if everyone on their roster were healthy. Milwaukee is 36-32, 5.5 games back in the NL Central and 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. All the injuries they have suffered could ultimately make the difference between the Brewers making the playoffs for the seventh time in the past eight years or hitting the links come October.

The Marlins and Rockies are two more teams that rank highly in percentage of projected WARP lost to injury, but even more so than the Yankees and Dodgers, their records are reason enough to disqualify them from this conversation. The same is true of the White Sox, who have placed more players on the IL during 2025 than any other team. Perhaps injuries have cost the Marlins, Rockies, and White Sox several wins each, but even with those extra wins, all three clubs would still be in the basement.

A couple more teams it is worth considering are those that might not have lost a lot of value to injury yet, but who surely will as the season goes on. For instance, the Diamondbacks recently lost ace Corbin Burnes for the season to a torn UCL. Stud reliever Justin Martinez is also on the IL with a sprained UCL that could require season-ending surgery. The Red Sox, too, have lost a few key players recently, most notably Alex Bregman, who could miss multiple months recovering from a significant quad strain.

So, with so much to consider, which team do MLBTR readers think has been hit the hardest by injuries this year? Have your say in the poll below:

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The Opener: Giants, Blue Jays, Injured Arms

By Leo Morgenstern | June 11, 2025 at 8:47am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:

1. Can the Giants keep their one-run win streak going?

The Giants have won their last six in a row, bringing them up to within half a game of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Making their win streak all the more interesting is the fact that they’ve won each game by just a single run. As noted by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, this is the longest one-run winning streak in franchise history. Indeed, it’s the longest one-run winning streak by any team since 1989. If the Giants win another one-run game today, they’ll tie the 1927 Cubs for the longest one-run winning streak in recorded MLB history. Robbie Ray, who has been stellar this year for San Francisco, will take the mound against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies.

The Giants are also chasing the record for the most one-run wins in a season, which they set themselves with 42 one-run wins in 1978. They currently lead the majors with 17 one-run victories, putting them on pace for 41 over a full season. However, another one-run victory today would put them on track for a record-breaking 43 by the end of the year.

2. Blue Jays roster move incoming:

As first reported by Trevor Hahn of News Tribune Sports, the Blue Jays will be promoting 27-year-old Will Robertson to make his MLB debut. He is expected to join the team today ahead of this afternoon’s matchup against the Cardinals (per Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith). Toronto has a couple of open spaces on its 40-man roster, but to add the lefty-batting outfielder to the active roster, the Blue Jays will need to make a corresponding move before today’s game at 1:15 pm CDT. Toronto could option either Jonatan Clase or Alan Roden. Neither young outfielder has had much success against major league pitching this year, although Roden was swinging a red-hot bat at Triple-A before his most recent call-up and went 2-for-4 last night against St. Louis. On the other hand, Clase went 2-for-4 with his first home run of the season in the series opener against the Cardinals, and his ability to switch-hit and play center field gives the Blue Jays a bit more flexibility. Alternatively, outfielder Nathan Lukes has been dealing with some neck discomfort. If it’s decided he needs a break of any note, an IL stint could clear the way for Robertson to debut.

In additional Blue Jays news, Spencer Turnbull is expected to make his season debut today. After signing a free agent contract with the club in May, he was recalled on Monday. Eric Lauer will get the start, but MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson suggests Turnbull is likely to enter in relief.

3. Bullpen sessions and rehab outings for injured arms:

Several injured pitchers will take steps toward returning to the majors today, including Justin Verlander, Cody Bradford, Reese Olson, and Marcus Stroman. Verlander, out since mid-May with right pectoral soreness, is with the Giants in Colorado and will face live hitters in a simulated game this afternoon (per Slusser). Similarly, Bradford, who has been out all season with a left elbow sprain, is with the Rangers in Minnesota and will throw a bullpen session today (per Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Olson, off to a terrific start for the Tigers before inflammation in his right ring finger landed him on the IL, will also throw a bullpen session today, the team announced.

Finally, Stroman will begin a rehab assignment today at Double-A Somerset, which Yankees manager Aaron Boone relayed to reporters, including Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Stroman has been out for the past two months with inflammation in his left knee. Although there was discussion of Stroman moving into the bullpen during spring training, the team plans to build him up as a starter (per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch), given the numerous injuries that have thinned their rotation depth.

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Dodgers Recall Matt Sauer, DFA José Ureña

By Leo Morgenstern | June 10, 2025 at 3:50pm CDT

3:50pm: It’s now official, with the Dodgers announcing they have recalled Sauer and designated Ureña for assignment.

8:03am: Speaking to reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) after last night’s extra-innings victory over the Padres, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed that the team is planning to recall right-hander Matt Sauer from Triple-A. Sauer is already with the team in San Diego as a member of the taxi squad, but the Dodgers will need to formally add him to the roster before he can pitch this evening. To do so, they will designate veteran righty José Ureña for assignment (per Ardaya).

Drafted by the Yankees in 2017, Sauer made his MLB debut last season with the Royals, who had selected him in the Rule 5 draft. However, Kansas City DFA’d him after he gave up 14 runs in his first 14 games, and he returned to finish out the season in New York’s farm system. The righty elected free agency this past offseason and signed a minor league contract with the Dodgers in December. This will already be Sauer’s fifth stint with the Dodgers this year. He made the travel roster for the Tokyo Series (although he did not appear in a game) and has since been optioned and recalled several times. All told, he has thrown 20 2/3 innings over seven appearances, allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 16 hits. The 26-year-old has only struck out 13 batters (16.7% K%), but his low walk rate (3.8%) and high groundball rate (49.2%) have helped him keep runners off the bases and runs off the board. As has been the case each previous time he was recalled, Sauer isn’t likely to stick around on L.A.’s 26-man roster for long. That said, a player can only be optioned five times in a season, so the next time the Dodgers option him will be the last.

Due to the Dodgers limited rotation depth – Tony Gonsolin recently joined fellow starters Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt and Gavin Stone on the IL – Sauer is likely to pitch multiple innings as part of a bullpen game today. However, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register suggests he will probably come in after an opener rather than start the game.

Ureña signed with the Dodgers last week, shortly after the Blue Jays DFA’d him. As Ardaya notes, the Dodgers will only be on the hook for a prorated portion of the league minimum salary for the few days he spent on their active roster. In that time, Ureña made two appearances for L.A., giving up one run on four hits over three innings. Altogether, he has pitched 18 1/3 innings this season for the Mets, Blue Jays, and Dodgers, with a 5.40 ERA and 5.09 SIERA to show for it. Considering his long MLB track record and versatility – he can pitch into the fifth inning as a starter or touch 98 mph out of the bullpen – he shouldn’t have trouble latching on somewhere else. The journeyman might not be seeing the same success he enjoyed with the Rangers in 2024 (3.80 ERA in 109 IP), but there’s a reason three contending clubs have put him on their roster this season.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Jose Urena Matt Sauer

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Poll: Can Drew Rasmussen Keep Pitching Like An Ace?

By Leo Morgenstern | June 10, 2025 at 2:22pm CDT

Drew Rasmussen has pitched into the fifth inning in every start he’s made in 2025. That might not seem so impressive, but Rasmussen is one of just 28 pitchers to have recorded an out in the fifth in 13 or more starts this year. That’s fewer than one per team. Not to mention, he’s coming off internal brace surgery, the third major elbow procedure of his career. Few major leaguers have ever returned from a third such surgery, let alone returned and thrived as the kind of arm a team can count on for five innings every five days.

Even better for Rasmussen and the Rays, his innings stand out for their quality as much as their quantity. In 12 of his 13 starts, he has thrown at least five frames whilst allowing no more than seven baserunners and four runs. No other pitcher – not Paul Skenes, not Jacob deGrom, not Zack Wheeler – has made as many starts that fit that description. All told, the 29-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, the eighth-lowest among qualified AL starters, right in between preseason Cy Young favorites Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. His 0.90 WHIP ranks third, just behind Skubal’s and just ahead of deGrom’s. Underlying those strong results are a 5.3% walk rate, a 50.8% groundball rate, and a 4.8% barrel rate, all of which rank him among the AL’s best. None of his ERA estimators (3.43 SIERA, 3.16 xERA, 3.23 FIP, and 3.31 xFIP) is quite as strong as his low-2.00s ERA, but they’re all still excellent numbers, and only four qualified AL starters have him beat in all four metrics: Skubal, Crochet, Kris Bubic, and Hunter Brown. Those are four of the most exciting young hurlers in the league.

Rasmussen has often flown under the radar, but his ace-like performance this year is hardly coming out of nowhere. Since he arrived in Tampa Bay as part of the Willy Adames trade in 2021, he has pitched to a 2.62 ERA in 347 1/3 innings. He has also compiled 8.2 FanGraphs WAR and 8.8 Baseball Reference WAR in that time. That works out to roughly four wins above replacement per 162 innings, an All-Star-caliber clip. Just as impressive is his consistency. In parts of five seasons with the Rays, he has never had an ERA higher than 2.84. Of course, injuries have severely limited his playing time – he threw 59 innings for Tampa Bay in 2021, 146 in 2022, 44 2/3 in 2023, 28 2/3 in 2024, and he’s thrown 69 so far in 2025 – but his steady excellence is remarkable all the same. Before and after each stint on the IL, Rasmussen has remained dominant. We’re also talking about a guy with the underlying metrics and phenomenal stuff to back up his great results. Since he joined the Rays, only three pitchers have thrown more innings than Rasmussen with a lower SIERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP: Skubal, Chris Sale, and Spencer Strider. Meanwhile, the comprehensive pitch models at FanGraphs, PitchingBot and Pitching+, both suggest his arsenal has been well above average in every season of his Rays tenure.

So, on the one hand, we’re looking at a pitcher who has excelled at every turn over the past five years. On the other hand, that same pitcher has never thrown more than 146 innings in a season. His second-highest single-season innings total at the MLB level is 76. Both of those campaigns came before his third major elbow surgery. In other words, all of Rasmussen’s stats come from a relatively small sample. Furthermore, we have no way to know for sure that he is capable of pitching a full, qualified season without tiring down the stretch. Most important of all, he’s an injury risk, and he will carry that label for perhaps the rest of his career. So, even in a best-case scenario in which Rasmussen continues to shine and shows no sign of slowing down, the Rays will have to manage his workload carefully. At some point, Kevin Cash might stop him from pitching into the fifth inning every start. It’s not out of the question that Rasmussen could eventually move to the bullpen if the Rays are particularly worried about his innings.

Rasmussen has pitched like an ace so far in 2025. Indeed, on a per-inning basis, he’s been one of the most effective arms in the game since he landed with the Rays in 2021. Yet, it’s far from a guarantee he can keep this up over the next several months. So, what do MLBTR readers think? Has Rasmussen done enough to prove he’s one of the game’s premier starting pitchers? Or will his injury history and lack of experience catch up with him as the season wears on? Have your say in today’s poll:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Tampa Bay Rays Drew Rasmussen

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The Opener: Martinez, Montes De Oca, Stanton, Snell, Scherzer

By Leo Morgenstern | June 10, 2025 at 9:19am CDT

After catching up on the news from late last night, here are a few things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today.

1. Justin Martinez, Christian Montes De Oca to go for imaging:

With two outs and a four-run lead in the ninth inning on Monday, the Diamondbacks were forced to pull Justin Martinez, as the hard-throwing right-hander felt tightness in his elbow (per Alex Weiner of AZ Sports). The D-backs would go on to win the game on a walk-off grand slam in the 11th inning, but they’re not out of the woods yet. The words “elbow tightness” are always scary, and especially so for a 23-year-old who hits triple digits and has already undergone Tommy John surgery once in his career. Martinez has not been quite as effective this year as he was in his breakout 2024 season, as higher walk and home run rates have inflated his ERA from 2.48 to 4.11. Nonetheless, losing the righty for any amount of time would be a tough blow for a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA and a team that has underperformed expectations this season. Arizona should know more about Martinez’s status after he goes for imaging today, but as Weiner notes, the team’s level of concern is high.

To make matters worse, Weiner reports that concern levels are also high for Martinez’s fellow right-handed reliever Christian Montes De Oca. The 25-year-old made his MLB debut over the weekend, pitching 2 2/3 scoreless innings against the Reds. He was unavailable last night due to discomfort in his right elbow (per Weiner), and he will also go for imaging today.

2. Giancarlo Stanton to begin rehab assignment:

Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton has been out all season with injuries in both elbows, but he will make a big step toward his return tonight. The 35-year-old is scheduled to play in his first rehab game with the Double-A Somerset Patriots, which the team confirmed this morning. While injuries have plagued Stanton throughout much of his tenure with the Yankees, he has continued to produce when healthy. In 2024, he hit 27 home runs and drove in 72 in just 114 games, putting up a .773 OPS and 116 wRC+. He also added seven more homers and a 1.048 OPS in the playoffs, helping the Yankees reach the World Series for the first time since 2009. So, New York will surely be happy to have his bat back whenever he is ready, but manager Aaron Boone will have his work cut out for him figuring out how to insert Stanton into the lineup. At this point in his career, Stanton is a DH only, but the Yankees already have a regular DH in Ben Rice. They also have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and a crowded outfield picture that includes Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Jasson Domínguez. Ultimately, having too many good hitters is the kind of problem every manager dreams of, but it will be worth watching to see how Boone divides up playing time once Stanton returns.

3. Bullpen sessions for former Cy Young winners:

Max Scherzer and Blake Snell have a few things in common. They’re the only active pitchers to have won a Cy Young in both leagues. They’ve both spent most of the season on the IL after signing a free agent contract with a new team over the winter. Today, they’re both expected to throw a bullpen session as they work toward their returns. Snell, who is currently with the Dodgers in San Diego, threw what the team called a “touch-and-feel” session on the weekend and will throw a proper bullpen today (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Similarly, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that Scherzer will also throw a bullpen session today, and if all goes well, he could potentially rejoin the Blue Jays after just a pair of Triple-A rehab starts. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith suggests Scherzer’s bullpen session could be tomorrow instead, but either way, Scherzer is ramping up for a rehab appearance on Friday. Due to injuries, both Toronto and L.A. have struggled to put together complete five-man rotations this year. Needless to say, the returns of Scherzer and Snell would make a big difference for both clubs.

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The Opener

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White Sox Return Rule 5 Pick Gage Workman To Tigers

By Leo Morgenstern | May 14, 2025 at 6:13pm CDT

Infielder Gage Workman has cleared waivers, and the White Sox have returned him to the Tigers, as reflected by his transaction log on MLB.com. He will report to Triple-A Toledo.

This hardly comes as a surprise after the White Sox designated Workman for assignment earlier this week. The Cubs initially selected Workman from the Tigers in the Rule 5 draft this past December. He made the Opening Day roster for the North Siders and suited up for the club in nine games over the first few weeks of the season. However, the Cubs no longer had a role for him after signing the much more experienced utility infielder Nicky Lopez to a big league deal in mid-April. Per the Rule 5 regulations, the Cubs could not simply option Workman to the minors, so they DFA’d him and traded him to the White Sox for cash considerations not long after.

Workman played just three games for the White Sox before landing on the IL with a right hip flexor strain. Upon reinstating him, the South Siders chose not to add him back to their active roster and DFA’d him instead. This time, evidently, no other teams were interested in giving him (and his .485 OPS through 17 PA) a spot on their active roster, so passed through waivers unclaimed. The White Sox then had to offer him back to the Tigers. As his original team, Detroit is not obligated to add him to its 26 or 40-man roster. He will return to the Tigers’ minor league system, where he thrived last year, hitting .280 with a 142 wRC+ in 126 games at Double-A.

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Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Transactions Gage Workman

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Red Sox Place Tanner Houck On Injured List With Flexor Pronator Strain

By Leo Morgenstern | May 14, 2025 at 4:38pm CDT

The Red Sox have placed right-handed starting pitcher Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with a flexor pronator strain in his pitching arm. In a corresponding move, the team recalled fellow right-hander Cooper Criswell from Triple-A.

Following a strong 2024 season, Houck has not pitched well in 2025. Through nine starts, he is 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA. He has struck out just 32 batters in 43 2/3 innings, while walking 17 and hitting five. On two separate occasions, including his most recent outing on Monday, he has given up 11 earned runs in a start and failed to escape the third inning. If those two games were scratched from the register, his ERA would drop to 3.92, and his strikeout and walk rates would look much closer to what they were last season. But of course, there’s no pretending those blow-ups didn’t happen. Now, at least, Houck and the Red Sox might have an explanation for his struggles.

After Monday’s game, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that he was still trying to figure out why Houck had been so ineffective. “I’ve got to take a look at the video and we’ve got to see what we’re gonna do,” he explained. “Right now, it’s too fresh. It’s too quick. We have to take a look at it and see if it’s mechanical, usage, or where we’re at.” At that point in time, the skipper didn’t suggest the problem could be injury-related. Indeed, Cotillo notes that as recently as this afternoon, Cora continued to insist that Houck would start again this weekend. Now, Houck will not be able to return for at least two weeks. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out.

The Red Sox have not confirmed whether Criswell will make a start in Houck’s place. Criswell was more than serviceable as a starter last season, pitching to a 3.49 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 18 starts. While he failed to earn a rotation spot out of spring training, he has started his last four games at Triple-A to great success. In 20 2/3 innings, he has a 1.74 ERA with 27 strikeouts. Still, it’s possible he was called up to be an extra arm out of the bullpen instead. The Red Sox might prefer to move Sean Newcomb back from the bullpen into the rotation. After all, Newcomb beat out Criswell for a rotation spot on the Opening Day roster. Newcomb was also the reliever who came out of the bullpen and gave the team 5 2/3 strong innings on Monday after Houck’s early exit. In other words, he’s stretched out enough to start, and he’s on schedule to seamlessly take over for Houck.

There is also a chance the Red Sox won’t need either of Criswell or Newcomb to step up. They could skip Houck’s turn in the rotation and give the ball to Brayan Bello on Sunday, a course of action made possible by an off day on Thursday. Then, Walker Buehler, who is expected to be activated from the IL early next week (per Cotillo), could potentially make the start on Monday, giving Boston a rotation of Bello, Buehler, Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, and Hunter Dobbins. This is only an option, however, if Buehler is ready to go by Monday. While the Red Sox are planning for him to rejoin the team at some point during their series with the Mets, it’s not yet clear if Monday is a realistic date for his return.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Tanner Houck

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Latest On Anthony Rizzo

By Leo Morgenstern | May 9, 2025 at 7:44pm CDT

Back in February, veteran first baseman and free agent Anthony Rizzo expressed a desire to continue his playing career. However, he also expressed frustration over the limited market for his services and the services of other players like him. Rizzo suggested that teams didn’t “want to pay a few million dollars for veterans,” and said he wasn’t interested in signing a contract that would hurt the market for future players in a similar position. Speaking to Ken Rosenthal and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, he bemoaned “the fact that teams want you to play for basically league minimum. I’m like, you guys are crazy. You’re almost trying to ruin the market for the next guy.”

Rizzo was not credibly connected to any interested teams over the winter. Yet, his comments to Rosenthal and Kuty implied that he had received some interest, just not to the degree he would have liked. That may very well be true, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Thursday that the Padres pursued Rizzo during the offseason. Specifically, he notes that San Diego was interested in Rizzo before pivoting to Jason Heyward instead.

Heyward and Rizzo don’t fill the same niche – Heyward is an outfielder, while Rizzo plays first base – but they are both 35-year-old left-handed batters. Still, the fact that the Padres signed Heyward wouldn’t have precluded them from signing Rizzo from a positional fit/roster-building standpoint. After all, they still needed a DH, and they ultimately signed another lefty batter, Gavin Sheets, to fill that role. What’s more, Sheets actually has a higher guaranteed salary than Heyward, even though he initially joined the team on a minor league deal; Sheets is making $1.6MM this season, while Heyward is guaranteed $1MM. If the Padres were hoping to sign him in that same price range, Rizzo’s February comments make clear he wouldn’t have accepted. And regardless, if San Diego ever made Rizzo a formal, guaranteed offer, it clearly wasn’t the kind of offer the veteran first baseman was seeking.

San Diego would have made an interesting fit for Rizzo. While he is best remembered for his years with the Cubs, he made his MLB debut for the Padres in 2011. Twelve years later, it was in a game against the Padres that Rizzo suffered the injury that led to his post-concussion syndrome diagnosis. Entering that game, Rizzo had an .823 OPS and a 131 wRC+ through his first 231 appearances with the Yankees. From that day onward, he produced a .590 OPS and a 70 wRC+ in 139 contests. So, for both of those reasons, it would have made for a nice story if Rizzo had bounced back with the Padres.

As time goes by, it becomes less and less likely that Rizzo will return to the majors, especially if he remains adamant about signing for much more than the league minimum salary. Theoretically, the Red Sox are a good fit for Rizzo after Triston Casas ruptured his left patellar tendon, likely ending his season. They have already made it clear that neither of their top prospects, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, will move to first base, nor will Rafael Devers. That leaves Romy Gonzalez (career .672 OPS, 82 wRC+) as the primary first baseman, and he, too, has been dealing with a minor back injury after a collision at first base on Wednesday. Ultimately, the righty-batting Gonzalez might be a fine fill-in against left-handed pitching, but the Red Sox could use another lefty bat with Casas and Masataka Yoshida both on the IL. Nevertheless, Heyman notes that a reunion between Rizzo and the Red Sox – it was Boston who drafted him before trading him to San Diego – does not “seem to be in play.”

Some contending clubs that have struggled against right-handed pitching and could make room for Rizzo in a part-time role at first base or DH include the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals. However, there is no reporting to suggest that Rizzo has received interest from any teams since the start of the season.

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San Diego Padres Anthony Rizzo

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