The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer. Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $132MM through 2029
- Ian Happ, LF: $38MM through 2026
- Seiya Suzuki, DH/RF: $36MM through 2026
- Jameson Taillon, SP: $36MM through 2026
- Nico Hoerner, 2B: $23.5MM through 2026
- Shota Imanaga, SP: $13MM through 2025, then a $57MM three-year club option or $15MM player option
Option Decisions
- Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout. Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
- Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
- Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
- Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
- Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
- Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
- Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
- Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
- Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
- Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
- Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
- Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
- Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
- Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Almonte, Bethancourt, Merryweather, Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer
Free Agents
The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023. A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July. Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.
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Players I would Non Tender
Almonte, Alzolay,Madrigal, Wisdom, Tauchman, Brewer, Herget.
I’d keep:
Bethancourt, Merryweather,Pearson, Thompson, Wingenter.
I’d keep Bethancourt unless something better came along. I expect Ballesteros and Aliendo to start out splitting time at C at Iowa.
Obviously lose Hendricks and Smyly.
I’d trade Bellinger if he opts in. And I’d make sure he knew it now.
I’d chase Burnes and Scott as FA’s and maybe Lopez..
But Hoyer will probably do nothing. Hope I’m wrong.
Cubs fans were kind of crowing about getting Bellinger on a lesser contract than his agent normally gets. He had an ok year. Why would you turn on him now? The Cubs are the ones who made the offer.
Because I’m not turning on him. Bellinger and the Boras clients were drowning and going down for the 3rd time and here comes Jed and not only threw him a lifeline but gave him the keys to his house and his car. With the emergence of Busch and PCA he really doesn’t fit anymore and isn’t needed anymore and is way over priced. Like him as a player and a person because he’s a good dude but I can think of a lot of other uses for the 25 million they’d save this year and next. Nothing Belli does is anything Busch and PCA can’t do cheaper. And I’d rather have Burnes than Belli at this point and time.
He gave a Boras-less Swanson his first born. Notice a trend?
Dang, now I have to wait the whole off season to find out what the outlook is for the Cubs?! Hmmmm, how bout I just take a wild guess & say they suck….Again. Problem solved. Ahahahaha!
NYC… Are you having your stroke in installments?
No, I’m having fun at your expense. Ahahaha!
Uncle—-something better will come along at catcher—do not, do not, do not keep Bethancourt—two reasons—-Yan Gomes was pretty good in 2023 and it took three months of bad baseball before he was launched. Bethancourt was really good with the Cubs, but learn from your mistakes.
And they really need to upgrade Amaya—not the back up. Thus, something better will come along. And, strong probability that Bethancourt (or like) will be available to pick from all summer long.
Hoyer never does nothing…he will do something–just have to be the right pieces.
For Pete’s sake–the Royals grabbed Lugo, Renfroe, and Wacha and they are in the playoffs. Cubs fans would have revolted (more) if those were the acquisitions last offseason.
Obviously I hope something better comes along than Bethancourt, But I wouldn’t be rash. Ballesteros isn’t real good behind the plate but if Gary Sanchez can catch games in MLB than anyone can. I put them about dead even. Investing big capital in a C at this point would be rash. I’d let it play out unless somebody gives them something good. Did you see that horrid list of FA C’s? Egads. There are times Hoyer should do nothing and he always manages to waste money. That bench Counsell had might have been the sorriest bunch of idiots I’ve ever seen. Heck the team they had after the sell off had a better bench. Unless you went to Ringling Bros you couldn’t find a bigger bunch of worthless clowns. Hoyer always does something. Yeah, That’s what scares me.
I’m with you Uncle—of course it’s a crapshoot, but they do need to markedly improve those 19th to 23rd men on the roster. I think we agree that the combo of Canario, Mastro, Magridal, Wisdom, etc couldn’t be rolled up into one viable major league guy and they were taking up close to three roster spots at the same time. That needs to improve.
I’m not investing big at C either really because Realmuto and Rutschman are off the table. I’m only non-tendering Bethancourt to open options (one of which can be him again).
Even more scary than the list of catchers—the list of relief pitchers….a couple good ones and hundreds of guys that aren’t any better than what they have already.
Hodge
Merryweather
Pearson
Keegan
Little
Lopez?
Miller
Wingenter?
Neely
Arias
Scalzo Jr
That’s a good start. You add Tanner Scott to that and maybe another vet on a cheaper deal and it’s a better pen than they started with last year with more options. Plus you have the Brown, Wicks, Assad, Horton possibilities to mull over also. Lots of ways they can go. If they sign Burnes than it also helps the pen. Makes it deeper. That’s why moving Bellinger is important to me. Right now you have 46 million coming off and if Bellinger goes now you have 61 million. If they get creative with Burnes maybe they can spread his money around. I know some arb money is gone too but if they non tender the bums I mentioned that adds to the pot. As long as he keeps at least 15 million to spend at the deadline it’ll be fine.
In agreement with the comments. Just to add my humble opinion : All things being equal, that is good health and expectations. The combo of Porter Hodge and Tanner Scott in the 8th and 9th innings have a chance to be really good.
@mike127
Amaya was really good after the mid season adjustment at the plate. We need a good back up until Ballesteros is ready.
Log—totally agree—but he did regress back and hit under .200 the last month of the season. I know there really aren’t much more than a handful of really good catchers, but don’t fall into comfort if there is the ability to get better.
And—I just can’t live with the until (fill in the blank) is ready theory too much longer. Teams like the Royals and Tigers are in the playoffs and still alive. No major league team should have to wait for anything—the Cubs, especially, should have the gumption to win enough games to get into the playoffs.
Aliendo is just as good defensively as Amaya and has a better bat. Ballesteros is a top bat and mediocre receiver at best right now. Might be Schwarber 2.0. But Suzuki seemed to take to the DH job nicely. Not everybody can do it well. Hearn after floundering for a couple of years made big strides both behind the plate and with the bat this year and Casey Opitz is a fantastic defensive C and SH who can’t hit at all unfortunately. It’s not as bleak as it seems but the future seems to be Ballesteros but who knows.
Alzolay won’t pitch in 2025 sp there’d not much ppint to fire him yet. See how his recovery goes. Bring him back for 2026. If it doesn’t look like he’s back to his old self. DFA him.
Like “I’d chase Burnes and Scott…”.
Nah, time to non-tender Adbert to get him off the 40 man. The Cubs need the spot and any available payroll space. They only have about $35 million if they don’t intend to go over the CBT threshold.
Of the arb eligibles, I’d tender just Steele, Paredes, Pearson and maybe Keegan. Cut Mervis off the 40 man and you’re down to 32 with 19 pitchers.
Being on the 60 day IL won’t take up a 40man spot. Pretty sure he needed and might have had TJS already. I wish they would’ve diagnosed it sooner because he has a forearm strain at the end of 2023 as well. So they heavily misdiagnosed him and did it way too late too.
Log–I think the 60 day IL goes away when the World Series ends and you can’t be put back on it until Spring Training starts.
The Cubs have eight players now on the 60 day list and they all revert back to the 40 man roster when the World Series ends.
So right now, in reality, the Cubs have 48 players on that 40 man roster. Lots of non-tendering to do. (and of course, Hendricks and Lopez drop off when they announce their free agent intentions).
My non tenders/ drops: Bethancourt, Wisdom, Brewer, Madrigal, Davis, Mervis, Wingenter, Herget, Alzolay, Hollowell to start….. that gets to 37 real quickly.
I can add Caleb Knight—whoever he is…..HA. Uncle listed a bevy of other catchers in the system.
Yeah Caleb Knight isn’t anything to sweat but you’re forgetting Davis. Ba Bye as far as I’m concerned.
Davis is there….just buried between Mervis and Madrigal. They can keep him just to see if he can break that last bone in his body.
Caleb Knight is a career minor leaguer who is likely to retire at the end of this season. Might even become an instructor or scout for the Cubs. Selecting him on the last weekend was obviously just a thank you for his service.
My bad.
Thank you for explaining how the 60-day IL guys need to be reintegrated onto thr roster after the WS. I have noticed that even major roster-watchers often aren’t cognizant of that. Question: Can players be released or non-tendered directly from the 60-day, or do they have to be added back to the 40-man first?
I’d have absolutely no problem with Keegan being released. Seems he’s got to be unreliable from one appearance to the next.
Did you like this offseason outlook on the Cubs?
I thought there were too many hypothetical trades mentioned, especially about catchers.
I like to read about team needs and possible trades for my favorite team but this article left a lot to be desired. More should be mentioned about the intra division rivalries with the Central and how the Pirates and Reds are on the come, Brewers always competing and the Cards are about to rebuild. The division is there for the taking if the Cubs make the right moves.
The Contreras one was a hoot. I spit out my drink laughing.
One other name that has crossed my mind recently: Willson Contreras. Contreras took over as the Cubs’ primary catcher during their 2016 championship season, continuing in that role through 2022 and then signing a five-year deal with the Cardinals. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote in February 2023, the Cubs let Contreras go “in part because he did not meet their standards for defensive preparation and game-calling.” Is it possible that with a new manager and coaching staff, more established starting pitching, and a potential lesser reliance on Contreras defensively, the Cubs might re-evaluate that stance?
Contreras, 33 next May, is guaranteed $59.5MM from 2025-27, assuming his ’28 club option is bought out. The Cardinals’ desire to reset in 2025 means Contreras stands a good chance to be traded this winter, though they might need to eat some money to do so. Of course, the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry rarely results in trades. They’ve matched up for perhaps two notable deals since 1995 (Jeff Fassero in ’02, Todd Zeile in ’95).
We generally don’t feel that an Offseason Outlook about one team should focus much on other teams.
You wrote it man. I just copied and pasted one part. I would be furious if Jed wasted money re signing Contreras. That might be a firing situation I would hope.
Sorry. Should have said ” Reaquiring”.
I’d work out a potential gift of Bellinger to the Angels before the World Series ends, and tell Bellinger that if he opts in he can enjoy Anaheim.
Gotta keep Tauchman. He was consistently strong off the bench in the field and at the plate and a steal at his price.
I agree rondon. I’d definitely keep Bellinger around. Jed has enough in funds to acquire the help for 2025, to get them to the playoffs. Bellinger is a nice player as a nice insurance policy should someone else get injured are stumble’s with their performance.
There is hope, but no guarantees yet that Caissie, Ballesteros or anyone else at Iowa will be as ready, as PCA was, next year. And Busch hopefully will continue to perform, but it’s only been one year.
I would dump all the pen arms. Build around Hodge, Brown, Wesneski, Little, Wicks, Neely, and Assad.
That gives some high leverage plus a few inning soakers.
Tauchman I am on the fence about but the rest ass can.
F/A they should target a SP. It makes sense to get 1 long term arm and 1 rental type as Jed has Horton pending and Taillon in his walk year.
I don’t want to point out names just roles at this time.
They need to deal out Hoerner. Shaw has better upside. This should be a push for the off-season.
Cody most likely stays. His value is low right now and it makes more sense to build it playing everyday in RF.
Craig Counsell’s comments at the end of the season were pretty clear. I don’t think Hoyer can sit on his hands this off-season after being put on blast by his manager. The context of those comments seem to insinuate that he was promised adding some bigger fish to go for a World Series. It will be very interesting to see how their off-season plays out under these circumstances, in my opinion.
If Counsell, a man that has grown up around baseball, played the game all over the league, been a long time presence for the rival Brewers, actually believed a CUBS promise to spend money, he is not the brains I thought he was.
Weren’t they over the cap?
It will be close to the cap. If they went over, it was accidental due to excessive injury replacements and not getting the minimum salary offset for Gomes.
By like a million dollars. Which isn’t being over the Tax really. Has no effect on draft picks or anything else and is a tiny little fine. Tip money for Ricketts.
Tax rates are higher for second vs first-time payors. It’s kind of dumb to go a tiny amount over the threshold.
I agree but that’s Jed. He’s just horrible at salary and team roster management. Why that pablum press conference was a joke. I wanted to hear what Ricketts said. And I’d like to know if Hawkins can ACTUALLY say anything but I doubt it.
@Tim
Why on earth would the Rays trade Shane McClanahan? Is that Cub fan optimism? That’s the last thing I expected to hear on any offseason preview.
No that’s not Cub fan anything. That’s the way the Rays operate, Always have. When a guy is ready to turn 30 and is about to get the big money they trade him and move on. It’s actually pretty smart and the way I thought the Cubs wanted to operate. But I was wrong I guess. Now we’re back to throwing crap at the wall and seeing if it sticks. Jed should have picked a lane and stayed in it for a change.
McClanahan is 27 with guaranteed salaries of 3.6 mil for ’25 and ’26, plus team control for ’27. But more importantly he has Tarik Skubal type upside and stuff. I would trade the Cardinals entire roster for Shane McClanahan.
I don’t see ANY reason for the Rays to consider dealing him this winter. I completely understand their business model, but trading their highest upside arm before a season where they should be right in the thick of the AL East race is just silly. He would still have mountains of value next offseason and the following offseason.
I love Tim Dierkes, but that kind of speculation sounds like a Cubs fan dreaming big.
Coming off major arm surgery I’d expect a Walker Buehler type season for him in ’25. He could rebound well or he could be Glasnow. And IF he was available, there is no team, including the Cardinals, who would not dream of getting him.
If McClanahan is really still in Arb years there is no way you can say that his salary will be locked in at 3’6 million. That’s what arbitration is for. We both make an offer and it goes to the arbitrator. Unless he signed an extension for those puny amounts which would make his agent the worst in Pro sports history.
He signed it. Check it out.
They had the same record as last year bc they essentially had the same team. Offseason moves were swapping Stroman for Imanaga, re-signing Bellinger and shuffling bullpen pieces.
They really didn’t make any significant improvements to the on-field product.
Kyle Hendricks will forever live on in Chicago lore because he helped bring a championship but it’s really time for him to go to another team. He was awful this season, he can do with a change of scenery, definitely a good bounce back candidate.
I wouldn’t mind Hoyer bringing back Jorge Lopez, he wouldn’t break the bank and he was really good with the Cubs.
Azolay can be brought back with like a two year guarantee of like 2 million for 2025 and like 3 million for 2026 no need to cut him loose yet.
It’ll be interesting to see if Bellinger opts out, but I really doubt he does so.
Belli’s ego will cause him to opt out.
I kind of hope so, hopefully Boras convinces him he can get a long term deal like Chapman got with the Giants.
Alzolay and Almonte probably agree to two year deals in exchange for being non-tendered and signed to a NRI with an opt-out. Then you select them once the 60-day IL opens and they are there until they get healthy.
Well thought out Brick—low risk for all considering nobody has an idea if/when they will hit a major league mound again.
It’s pretty sad to see an offseason staple that was always available to everyone now hidden behind a paywall.
Yeah, but look on the bight side: all those trolls and Cub haters are far less likely to muck up the comments section with silly takes and personal attacks.
To me, the best part of the items now going behind the MLBTR Paywall is that the comments will be far less trollish.
@Tim Dierkes I know that wasn’t your intent, but I appreciate the silver lining! Comments are far more readable/interesting on the Paywall-protected posts.
Cubs are bringing in Catcher whisperer Jerry Weinstein from the Rockies. Perhaps he can work his magic with Moises Ballesteros.
Last years series for the cubs got 112 comments
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-chica…
Yeah but 60 of those were just from Cub haters who just made stupid comments just to look like fools. I don’t miss that.
I’m on the fence with Tauchman. He’s a guy that benefits from regular, albeit not starter, playing time. If Bellinger opts out, Tauchman becomes more interesting (and important) to 2025.