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2024-25 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By Nick Deeds | October 31, 2024 at 9:09pm CDT

Despite end-of-season promises of a "full-throttle" approach to the 2023-24 offseason, things were fairly quiet for the Red Sox during their first year under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's guidance as the club prioritized short-term commitments in free agency and on the trade market without making a major splash. That led to another disappointing season at Fenway where the club posted a lackluster 81-81 record that landed them third place in the AL East and four games out of an AL Wild Card spot. After a season that saw a number of youngsters take steps forward and with more prospect talent nearing the majors, Breslow's second winter at the helm figures to be more active than his first.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $284MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $77.5MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout on 2028 club option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, DH: $55.8MM through 2027
  • Brayan Bello, SP: $53.33MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on 2030 club option)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS: $48.75MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on 2032 club option)
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option)
  • Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $14MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)

Option Decisions

  • Lucas Giolito, SP: Exercised $19MM player option
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF: Team holds $2.1MM club option with $150K buyout

2025 financial commitments: $105.93MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $562.79MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
  • Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
  • Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

  • Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta, Tyler O'Neill, Danny Jansen, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims

Disappointing as the 2024 season was for the Red Sox in terms of their record, one major silver lining for the club this winter is that the majority of their key contributors remain under long-term team control, meaning they'll be able to focus more on upgrading the roster than patching holes created by departing veterans. In particular, they're extremely well set-up in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all currently locked in at the major league level, not to mention the presence of Masataka Yoshida and (assuming his club option is picked up as expected) Rob Refsnyder.

With top prospect Roman Anthony knocking on the door of the majors and even getting some buzz as Baseball America's #1 prospect, the Red Sox remain flush in outfield talent even as they watch Tyler O'Neill and his 30-homer power depart for free agency. Of course, that's not to say O'Neill's bat won't be sorely missed in the Red Sox lineup. As a team, their 104 wRC+ was a hair above average, placing them in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Mariners for the tenth-best figure in the majors. While that's certainly a respectable number, even a prospect as talented as Anthony can't be expected to seamlessly replace the 131 wRC+ O'Neill provided to the club in a resurgent 2024 season.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Boston Red Sox Front Office Originals Membership

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Steve Adams | October 31, 2024 at 5:00pm CDT

After years of aggressive activity on both the trade and free agent markets -- to say nothing of savvy drafting and player development -- the Dodgers stand alone on top of the MLB mountain. They erased a 5-0 deficit in Game 5 to topple the Yankees by a score of 7-6, securing the largest comeback ever in a clinching game. It's the eighth World Series win in Dodgers history and the fourth time they've topped the Yankees in the Fall Classic. Now, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and the rest of L.A.'s baseball operations outfit must turn their focus to a 2025 title defense.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $698MM through 2033 ($678MM deferred, without interest, through 2043)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $270MM through 2035 (player can opt out after 2029 or 2031 seasons)
  • Mookie Betts, OF/INF: $265MM through 2032 ($128MM deferred [$45MM signing bonus, $83MM of salary] through 2044)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $111.5625MM through 2028 (includes $21.625MM player option for 2028)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $81MM through 2027 ($36MM deferred, without interest, through 2040)
  • Will Smith, C: $96.45MM through 2033 ($45MM deferred through 2043)
  • Chris Taylor, OF/INF: $17MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Max Muncy, 3B: $12.5MM through 2025
  • Tommy Edman, INF/OF: $9.5MM through 2025
  • Ryan Brasier, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025

2025 commitments: $214.5MM ($93MM deferred)
Total long-term commitments: $1.565 billion ($887MM deferred)

Option Decisions

  • Clayton Kershaw, LHP: $10MM player option
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM club option

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Dustin May (5.059): $2.135MM
  • Michael Kopech (5.041): $5.2MM
  • Brusdar Graterol (4.167): $2.7MM
  • Tony Gonsolin (4.152): $5.4MM
  • Evan Phillips (4.136): $6.2MM
  • Gavin Lux (4.114): $2.7MM
  • Alex Vesia (4.078): $1.9MM
  • Connor Brogdon (3.139): $800K
  • Anthony Banda (3.135): $1.1MM

Non-tender candidates: May, Gonsolin, Brogdon

Free  Agents

  • Teoscar Hernandez, Jack Flaherty, Blake Treinen, Walker Buehler, Joe Kelly, Enrique Hernandez, Kevin Kiermaier (retiring), Daniel Hudson (retiring)

As is often the case, the first "question" of the offseason for the Dodgers will center around the dugout. Dave Roberts, who's helmed the club for nine seasons en route to eight division titles, four National League pennants and World Series wins in 2020 and 2024, is slated to enter the final season of his contract. A change would register as a shock after Roberts' first World Series win in a 162-game season. An extension to avoid lame-duck status next year seems like it'll be in order, though it's possible that'll be held off until spring training. Broadly speaking, changes on the staff will likely be minimal, unless the Dodgers see a coach or coaches hired away for promotions on other staffs.

With regard to contractual options on the actual roster, there's not a lot of drama. Clayton Kershaw has already committed to returning to the Dodgers next season. Exercising his $10MM player option seems like the most straightforward means of making that happen, but perhaps the two parties will connect early to hammer out slightly different terms. Miguel Rojas' $5MM club option is a net $4MM decision when factoring in the $1MM buyout. After the season he just had, that should be a no-brainer, even if he's ticketed for a more limited role in 2025. Austin Barnes is an organizational favorite, but the Dodgers are deep at catcher. He's a borderline call, but maybe shelling out $3.5MM (and a presumptive 110% luxury tax) for a veteran backup isn't something the organization cares to do with Hunter Feduccia, Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing all on the the near-MLB depth chart.

Talk of Juan Soto will dominate the offseason, but we'll get to him in a bit. Starting pitching figures to be the primary focus for a Dodgers club that patched its staff together in the rotation and watched several young arms go down with long-term injuries. Righty Gavin Stone is likely out for all of 2025 following shoulder surgery. River Ryan, Kyle Hurt and Emmet Sheehan all had Tommy John surgery this season. Dustin May's return from flexor surgery was derailed by a bizarre and frightening tear in his esophagus that required surgery. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery last August and should be back in '25, but he'll be on an innings restriction. Walker Buehler and deadline pickup Jack Flaherty are free agents. Last season's breakout right-hander Bobby Miller endured a nightmare 2024 campaign, logging an 8.52 ERA in the majors and a 6.00 mark in Triple-A.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Membership

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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 11:30am CDT

It's a quick turnaround for the Yankees after last night's gutting defeat. The front office will jump right into offseason work. The most immediate focus is on their ace's complicated opt-out decision. After that, they'll make a push to retain a likely Hall of Famer who'll set a new contract record in the next few months.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, CF: $280MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, RHP: $144MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out this winter; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29)
  • Carlos Rodón, LHP: $108MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, DH: $96MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)*
  • DJ LeMahieu, 3B: $30MM through 2026
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP: $18MM through 2025 (deal contains $18MM vesting/player option for '26 if Stroman pitches 140+ innings next season)

* Marlins are covering $30MM of Stanton's contract between 2026-28, so Yankees are on the hook for $66MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Gerrit Cole can opt out of final four years and $144MM; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29
  • Team holds $17MM option on 1B Anthony Rizzo ($6MM buyout)
  • Team holds $5MM option on RHP Lou Trivino
  • Team holds $2.5MM option on RHP Luke Weaver

Additional Obligations

  • Owe $10.5MM to released OF Aaron Hicks

2025 financial commitments (if Cole doesn't hit free agency): $183.5MM
Total future commitments (if Cole doesn't opt out): $662.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
  • Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
  • Nestor Cortes (5.094): $7.7MM
  • Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
  • Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
  • JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
  • Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
  • Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
  • Scott Effross (2.156): $900K

Non-tender candidates: Berti, Mayza, Grisham, Brubaker

Free Agents

  • Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Alex Verdugo, Tim Hill, Jonathan Loáisiga, Phil Bickford, Tanner Tully

There's no bigger story of the offseason than Juan Soto. That's true not only for the Yankees but MLB as a whole. Soto's next contract is almost certainly going to surpass $500MM. There's a reasonable chance the guarantee begins with a 6. He should break the record both for average annual value and overall guarantee (assuming one takes the net present value of the Shohei Ohtani deal rather than the $700MM figure, which does not account for the contract's $680MM of deferrals).

The Yankees are obviously going to try to keep Soto in the Bronx. His first season couldn't have gone much better. Soto had arguably the best full year of his career. He just turned 26 and is theoretically only entering his prime, at least offensively. The defense probably won't age well over the course of a deal that stretches beyond a decade, but it doesn't really matter. Soto's floor at the plate is better than any free agent's in recent memory.

Every high-payroll team will be tied to Soto. There's a chance it comes down to a bidding war between the New York franchises. The Mets are clearly going to be all-in. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns stoked the flames last week, saying the franchise's ample payroll space "means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible." The biggest offseason question may be whether Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is willing to be outbid by Mets owner Steve Cohen on a player who was instrumental in pushing the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership New York Yankees

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

By Leo Morgenstern | October 29, 2024 at 9:23pm CDT

Despite a quiet offseason, the Guardians returned to contention in 2024. They won 92 games and the AL Central crown before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. As November approaches, two related questions loom large for this team: Will the surprising success of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City convince the Guardians to do more this winter to defend their division title? Or will the potential loss of local media revenue lead to another slow offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • José Ramírez, 3B: $88MM through 2028
  • Andrés Giménez, 2B: $96.86MM through 2029 ($23MM club option for 2030 with $2.5MM buyout)
  • Myles Straw, CF: $13.8MM through 2026 ($8MM club option for 2027 with $1.75MM buyout and $8.5MM club option for ‘28 with a $500K buyout)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $11.3MM through 2026 ($10MM club options for 2027 and ‘28 with $2MM buyout for ‘27 and $1MM buyout for ‘28)
  • Trevor Stephan, RHP: $5.8MM through 2026 ($7.25MM club option for 2027 with $1.25MM buyout and $7.5 club option for ‘28 with no buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Jean Segura, INF: $2MM buyout owed on $10MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $45.17MM
Total future commitments: $225.26MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
  • Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
  • James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
  • Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
  • Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
  • Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
  • Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
  • Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
  • Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM

Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, McKenzie, Hentges

Free Agents

  • Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd, Austin Hedges, Carlos Carrasco

The top teams are often the most well-rounded, but the 2024 Guardians were defined by their strengths and weaknesses. Their bullpen was the best in baseball, but their starters were unreliable for most of the year. Meanwhile, their offense was excellent against left-handed pitching but struggled to score against righties. They were also one of the better defensive teams in the league by almost every metric, but their baserunning numbers were surprisingly mediocre. First and foremost, the Guardians need to focus on their scoring, and not run prevention, this winter. That said, they could badly use a couple more reliable options for the rotation.

All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan led the offense in 2024, and they’ll be back at the top of the order again next year. Even the notoriously stingy and trade-happy Guardians wouldn’t possibly part with their star third baseman, who continues to look like an absolute bargain on the seven-year, $141MM extension he signed in 2022. As for Kwan, the left fielder is a strong extension candidate himself after another terrific season. 

Additional veterans in the lineup include the slugging Josh Naylor at first base, defensive stalwart Andrés Giménez at second, and trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas in center field. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo (DH), Bo Naylor (C), and Brayan Rocchio (SS) should have spots in next year’s starting nine as well. All three had up-and-down seasons, but considering their recent top prospect status, there’s little reason to think they won’t get to continue their development with the big league club in 2025. Indeed, the best way for Cleveland to improve its offense next year will be to get more production out of Manzardo, Bo Naylor, and Rocchio.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Cleveland Guardians Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Series

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 11:24am CDT

MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is back, as we break down what all 30 teams could have in store for their roster machinations this winter.  Going forward, the Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

This post acts as the landing page for all 30 entries, as the series is now complete.

AL West

  • Houston Astros
  • Los Angeles Angels
  • The Athletics
  • Seattle Mariners
  • Texas Rangers

AL Central

  • Chicago White Sox
  • Cleveland Guardians
  • Detroit Tigers
  • Kansas City Royals
  • Minnesota Twins

AL East

  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Boston Red Sox
  • New York Yankees
  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • Toronto Blue Jays

NL West

  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Colorado Rockies
  • Los Angeles Dodgers
  • San Diego Padres
  • San Francisco Giants

NL Central

  • Chicago Cubs
  • Cincinnati Reds
  • Milwaukee Brewers
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
  • St. Louis Cardinals

NL East

  • Atlanta Braves
  • Miami Marlins
  • New York Mets
  • Philadelphia Phillies
  • Washington Nationals
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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Membership

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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | October 25, 2024 at 10:59pm CDT

The Pirates were 54-52 on August 3 before a ten-game losing streak tanked their hopes of contention, and the Bucs ultimately finished with the same 76-86 record as they had in 2023.  Amidst some larger questions about how well the rebuild is progressing, there will be a clear focus on upgrading the lineup this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $88MM through 2030 (includes $2M buyout of $20MM club option for 2031)
  • Mitch Keller, SP: $69.5MM through 2028
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $43MM through 2029 (includes $6MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2030)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa, IF: $7.5MM through 2025 (Blue Jays covering roughly $1.22MM as per the terms of their July 2024 trade)

2025 financial commitments: $41.5MM
Total future commitments: $208MM

Option Decisions

  • Marco Gonzales, SP: $15MM club option, no buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
  • David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
  • Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
  • Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
  • Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
  • Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
  • Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
  • Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
  • Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Joe, De La Cruz, Heller

Free Agents

  • Andrew McCutchen, Aroldis Chapman, Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Borucki, Jalen Beeks

Paul Skenes lived up to the hype, wowing the baseball world with a 1.99 ERA over 133 innings and looking all the world like a franchise player.  Though he was somewhat overshadowed by Skenes and spent almost eight weeks on the injured list due to a lat strain, Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season.  Behind these two star rookies, Mitch Keller was his usual solid self, Bailey Falter pitched well in his first full season as a Pirate, and Luis Ortiz had a lot of success after moving from the bullpen back into the rotation at midseason.

Since Marco Gonzales' club option won't be exercised, this group stands as the Pirates' provisional starting five heading into Spring Training.  However, Johan Oviedo will also be healthy after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Down on the farm, top-100 prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, and other pitching prospects like Mike Burrows (who did toss his first 3 1/3 big league innings in 2024), Hunter Barco, and Anthony Solometo aren't far behind.

In short, Pittsburgh might soon become Pitch-burgh, with all of these young, controllable, and (except for Keller) inexpensive arms either in the majors or coming up the pipeline.  Developing this much promising starting pitching is no small thing, and with Skenes leading the way, general manager Ben Cherington can certainly point to the Pirates' rotation as the key to the team's rebuilding efforts.

However, this rebuild has now resulted in six straight losing seasons, with the last five coming under Cherington's watch.  While nobody expected Rome to be built in a day, the last two years have shown just enough promise to leave Pittsburgh fans disappointed when things fizzled out, and left wondering when exactly the Bucs will be turning the corner towards real contention.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership Pittsburgh Pirates

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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Darragh McDonald | October 24, 2024 at 11:00am CDT

What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Mets turned into a Cinderella campaign. They got stronger as the season went along and snuck into the playoffs, eventually reaching the NLCS. Now, they are set to lose a huge batch of players to free agency. That gives them plenty of holes to fill but a massive amount of spending capacity, meaning just about anything is possible this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $224MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF: $121.5MM through 2030
  • Edwin Díaz, RHP: $55.5MM through 2027 (includes buy-out on '28 club option; Diaz can opt-out after '25; some money deferred)
  • Kodai Senga, RHP: $42MM through 2027 (deal includes conditional opt-out after '25 and conditional club option for '28)
  • Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $33.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout on '27 club option)
  • Starling Marte, OF: $19.5MM through 2025

Option Decisions

  • Sean Manaea, LHP: $13.5MM player option
  • Phil Maton, RHP $7.75MM club option with $250K buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $119.25MM
Total future commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $496.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
  • Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
  • Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
  • David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
  • Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
  • DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
  • Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
  • Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM

Non-tender candidates: Blackburn, Torrens, Young, Stewart, Reid-Foley

Free Agents

  • Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias

David Stearns was hired to be the president of baseball operations just as the 2023 season was winding down. That was a disappointing year for the Mets, as they had raised hopes with a strong 2022 season and then spent big in the offseason. But things fell apart and they ended up selling at the 2023 deadline, including sending out future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Scherzer indicated to reporters that he agreed to be traded to the Rangers because he was told that 2024 would be "a kind of transitory year" for the Mets. The first offseason under Stearns seemed to reflect that, as the Mets backed away from the massive spending sprees that characterized previous winters. They did sign ten free agents, but nine of them were one-year deals and the only exception was the two-year deal for Sean Manaea, which came with an opt-out after year one.

The Mets got out to a rough start in 2024, losing their first five games. They had a record of 24-33 at the end of May. But everything turned around from there, as they went 65-40 in the final four months of the season, nabbing a Wild Card spot and going on a nice postseason run. Now the questions are about what's next.

Since the club gave so many short-term deals recently, a huge chunk of their roster is now heading to free agency. There's also some dead money coming off the books. The Scherzer and Verlander pacts are now done, as is their four-year James McCann deal. (He played the final two seasons of that pact in Baltimore, with the Mets covering most of the salary.) Stearns will have plenty of work to do in the next few months, but he should have a massive amount of spending capacity available to him.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Membership New York Mets

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Nick Deeds | October 23, 2024 at 3:40pm CDT

After finishing the 2023 season with the best record in baseball, the Braves disappointed somewhat in 2024 amid an avalanche of injuries to star players and underwhelming numbers from much of their offensive nucleus. This offseason, they'll need to reshape their rotation as their longest-tenured starter hits free agency while also overhauling their bench mix in hopes of re-capturing their hold over their NL East from the division-champion Phillies and a surging Mets club that made it all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $176MM through 2032 (deal includes club option for 2033)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $110MM through 2029 (deal includes club option for 2030)
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $73MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout on 2029 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $64MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout on 2031 club option; additional club option for '32)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $60MM through 2028 (deal includes club option for 2029)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. RF: $44MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)
  • Jorge Soler, RF: $32MM through 2026
  • Reynaldo Lopez, RHP: $26MM through 2026 (includes $4MM buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $22MM through 2025 (deal includes club option for 2026)
  • Joe Jimenez, RHP: $18MM through 2026
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $16MM through 2025
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $11MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on 2026 club option; additional club option for '27)
  • David Fletcher, INF/RHP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $1.5MM buyout on 2026 club option)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $7.25MM through 2025 (includes $250K buyout on 2026 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $3MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout on 2026 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $16MM club option with $1MM buyout
  • Travis d'Arnaud, C: $8MM club option with no buyout
  • Aaron Bummer, LHP: $7.25MM club option with $1.25MM buyout (deal also includes $7.5MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Luke Jackson, RHP: $7MM club option with $2MM buyout

2025 financial commitments: $188.75MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $674.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
  • Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
  • Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
  • Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
  • Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
  • Eli White (2.140): $800K

Non-tender candidates: Laureano, Biggio, Ynoa, White

Free Agents

Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Adam Duvall, Jesse Chavez, John Brebbia

With a number of quality players still under long-term team control, Atlanta remains firmly in the midst of its competitive window despite a disappointing 89-win campaign in 2024. The impending free agency of Max Fried, who has anchored the club's rotation for the past half decade, would perhaps be more concerning for the club's chances of rebounding in 2025 if GM Alex Anthopoulos's front office hadn't already successfully navigated the departures of both MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson in recent years.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Atlanta Braves Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2024 at 11:51am CDT

The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS.  This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Trea Turner, SS: $245,454,546 through 2033
  • Bryce Harper, 1B: $170MM through 2031
  • Aaron Nola, SP: $147,428,571 through 2030
  • Zack Wheeler, SP: $126MM through 2027
  • Nick Castellanos, OF: $40MM through 2026
  • Taijuan Walker, SP: $36MM through 2026
  • J.T. Realmuto, C: $23.875M through 2025
  • Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $20.5MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
  • Kyle Schwarber, DH: $20MM through 2025
  • Jose Alvarado, RP: $9.5MM through 2025 (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026)
  • Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2025 (Phillies have $4.5MM club option for 2026)

2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
  • Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
  • Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
  • Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
  • Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
  • Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
  • Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
  • Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
  • Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Allard, Hays, Stubbs

Free Agents

  • Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Turnbull

The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games.  Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership Philadelphia Phillies

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | October 22, 2024 at 3:35pm CDT

The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Correa, SS: $128MM through 2028 (contract contains series of four vesting options)
  • Pablo Lopez, RHP: $64.5MM through 2027
  • Byron Buxton, CF: $60MM through 2028
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $10MM through 2025
  • Chris Paddack, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $4MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026)

Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM

Option Decisions

  • Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
  • Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
  • Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
  • Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
  • Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
  • Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
  • Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
  • Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
  • Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
  • Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
  • Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
  • Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
  • Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
  • Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
  • Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Tonkin, Topa, Kirilloff

Free Agents

  • Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Anthony DeSclafani, Caleb Thielbar

It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.

The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.

Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.

Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.

Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).

Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.

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