The Mets defeated the Brewers yesterday and are now one win away from moving on to the National League Division series. But regardless of how deep they go in the postseason, right-hander Paul Blackburn won’t be an option for them. Manager Carlos Mendoza informed reporters that the righty is done for the year, with Tim Healey of Newsday among those to relay the news on X.
Blackburn was acquired from the Athletics prior to this year’s deadline. The Mets had some injuries in their rotation, with Christian Scott and Kodai Senga both on the shelf, so they sent prospect Kade Morris to Oakland to bring Blackburn aboard.
Unfortunately, the trade hasn’t worked out for them so far. Blackburn made five starts with a 5.18 earned run average before landing on the 15-day injured list due to a right hand bruise suffered when he was hit by a comebacker. While still on the IL, it was reported a couple of weeks ago that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. That sounded pretty grim but the club still had some hope of him making a return.
With today’s update, however, that won’t happen. It’s not a devastating blow to the Mets at this point, as the extra off-days in the playoffs and the do-or-die nature of the circumstances lead to smaller starting rotations. The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino as their current top three, with David Peterson and Tylor Megill also around as possible options. Megill isn’t on the Wild Card roster but could be utilized in the coming weeks, if needed.
Senga could perhaps be an option down the line as well but likely wouldn’t be counted on for bulk. He suffered a capsule strain in his shoulder during spring training and didn’t make his season debut until July. In his first start back, he suffered a left calf strain and went right back on the injured list. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen session earlier this week, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. That could lead to him rejoining the club later in the month but he will probably be limited to short outings.
Turning back to Blackburn, the club could still reap some return on that trade as he can be retained via arbitration for one more season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.4MM next year. Since the start of 2022, Blackburn has thrown 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.
He would be well worth that modest arbitration raise if the Mets expect him to be able to provide that kind of production next year. The club has a fairly wide open rotation in 2025, as both Quintana and Severino are slated for free agency. Manaea has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out he will certainly exercise as long as he’s still healthy in a few weeks. Scott recently underwent Tommy John surgery and could miss the whole season. José Buttó could return to a starting role but he’s having success in the bullpen, which could tempt the club to keep him there.
That’ll leave the club with a projected 2025 rotation of Senga, Megill and Peterson. Prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell have reached Triple-A but without success at that level yet. Given the number of available innings they have, tendering a contract to Blackburn makes plenty of sense. Even if the club pursues higher-upside pitchers in free agency and squeeze him out of the plans, Blackburn would have some trade value they could look to cash in.
A sad commentary of the game is when 20-25 starts is a solid season. Maybe they should go to 6 man rotations and be done with it already
Starters can’t even reach 180 innings let alone 200.
Starters COULD go 200, but front offices aren’t letting them.
Wrong
The inconsistent strike zones are brutal adding only Blue Baron knows, how many additional pitches to a pitchers count. Blue Baron, all knowing and also morality czar, will add his 2 cents.
Strike zone are significantly more consistent than ever.
dugmet- make them very consistent? Do what’s being done in AAA this past season: Every team gets *2* challenges, takes like 10 seconds to easilly verify whether blown B/S or not and if correct call made by ump? team challenged loses a check.
Can figure ump’s union wants not a thing to do with it, but watching Milb games? I loved the rule, or course few headstrong/whiney players may have wasted challenges early.. look no further than Astros Framber Valdez who thought everything he was throwing to the plate was a strike, yet the indicator was showing them all inches off the plate.. so players will need to have egos checked and to save those challenges for when needed of course.
Wrong
I think it’s sad commentary on how analytics has changed the game. Not sure what that says about someone having a run of hard luck, though.
How has analytics changed the game? if anything its made it better, helps managers make decisions based on data built up on players…pitchers don’t need to make too many starts, or have as many innings anymore because there is a new strategy built on stuff like this.
This is a serious question? I hear all the moans and groans when a pitcher is pulled in the fifth inning of a game where he’s doing well, a pure data driven move. Seems lots of fans love the analytics game until they see it played. Then when it doesn’t work they can always blame the manager.
It is solid especially for a dude with a career ERA above 4.00
@rsox
The Mets could make some moves this coming offseason. Should be relatively modest, barring a Soto signing.
$171 million accounted for in payroll before arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries. Mets definitely want to reset luxury tax, if possible. I would say that the Mets could spend 50 million, or more
$50 million isn’t much, considering all the holes they have to fill. David Stearns is going to have to thread the needle again and bring in a lot of bargain basement projects like he did last off season. What are the odds that he has as much success with those types two years in a row?
That’s a shame, he’ll be missed…by opposing hitters. Ahahahah!
Tbh, it will be $64 million or more to spend with Manea expected to opt out. Probably more like $70 million after increase to luxury tax threshold, and possibly more should Mets decline Maton’s option as well as other moves (like trading Marte while eating some salary or bad contract swap).
Mets do not have as much holes as you seem to think. Starting pitching is a clear need, and outfield needs to be addressed (should Bader not be resigned). First base can be addressed by moving Vientos over, and it will open up a spot for Baty/Mauricio at third. McNeil takes up second and Lindor has shortstop. Alvarez at catcher .
Sign 2-3 starters, resign Bader, and round out with $70 or more millions is possible
Agreed. If the season ends tonight for the Mets, I don’t see them resigning Alonso for what he’s asking. He’s been MIA most of September and seems to hit home runs these days in low leverage situations. Vientos is an able replacement although it remains to be seen how well he plays at 1B.
Baty probably gets one more chance to show he’s not an AAAA player.
I also think Acuna gets a shot at taking over at 2B with McNeil platooning with Marte in right.
@ NYMETSHEA I think you’re being optimistic on several fronts: First, 3 SPs and a starting CF is a lot of holes.
And what about DH? While JDM stunk these past six weeks, t he was a major force in the offense in June and July.
You’re assuming that the Baty/Mauricio combo is major league ready and will produce results. Maybe they are, maybe they’re not. Its a hope, not an answer. Yes, the Mets need to look at them and give them some kind of a chance. But the team cannot rely on just those two. They need to bring in a veteran IF who is more than just a back-up. One who can not only supplement them at 3rd, but could take over if they both flop (or simply have ups and downs that are common to young players).
Do you really consider McNeil a full-time, starting 2b for a contender at this point? Are Baty/Mauricio/Acuna proven replacements if McNeil is not?
In addition, we have to pay some consideration to idea that Stearns got unusually good results this year with his rebound candidates. Can he repeat that? Hard to say.
Lastly, even if all of that works out, all it does is give them a similar team to this year. How and where do they move forward and get better?
The thing is that the Mets can resign Bader who should command the same 10 mil or less next year. New Yorker. That takes care of centerfield.
The Mets rotation will need 2, maybe three starters as well as round out the bench. $67.5 mil or more to spend after declining Maton’s option. That is without going over luxury tax threshold, which could be fluid as Soto and few others could change that math.
No team is without some holes. Mets will have some but think the team will be as competitive or more next year.
What would you say to the Mets signing Burnes and resign Manea. That would cost 50 million a season. Senga, Burnes, Manea, Peterson, Blackburn/Megill for rotation. Whoever loses the battle for the fifth rotation spot gets to become long relief. That would leave 17.5 million to spend on bullpen and bench.
DH could be used to rest to various players throughout the season.
c – Alvarez
1st – Vientos
2nd – McNeil/Acuna
ss – Lindor
3rd – Baty/Mauricio
lf – Nimmo
cf – Bader
rf – Marte
dh – ?
If I were the Mets, I would market Marte plus 5-10 mil for some return. Bullpen or prospects. Use the savings towards another outfielder for RF.
Really unsure about your free agent valuations. Don’t agree that Bader will command the same $10 mil he got this year. Yeah, he faded in the second half. But it was still a better year than he’s had lately, and he remained healthy all season. 10 mil isn’t much these days. He will test the market, and someone somewhere will give him more. Why would he take the same money after having a better year?
$50 million for Burnes and Manaea? Why would Burnes command anything less than the $35 or $37 mil that other premium pitchers have asked and gotten? And typical mid-rotation guys get $20 to $25 mil these days. Manaea was more than that and should certainly get that much if not more.
Don’t know that you get any return for picking up only 5 to 10 mil of Marte’s $20M. He only hits from one side, can’t stay healthy, and doesn’t play good defense anymore.
All in all, your plan doesn’t provide any depth, especially on the pitching side, and fails to account for the reality that a lot of guys outperformed their histories, expectations, and salaries. Very hard for a POBO to have that success rate two years in a row. You’re also assuming that you’ve “filled” the hole in the infield with Baty/Mauricio/Acuna. Maybe you have, maybe you haven’t. Remains to be seen. Two of them could be somewhat successful major leaguers and still not replace Alonso’s production. Not to mention Iglesias’ production.
Bader loves playing in New York. Unless another nearby team offers him the opportunity to play close to home, I think he would welcome resigning in New York for the Mets.
We will wait for the estimations for Burnes, but the underlying numbers do not represent the same dominant pitcher in his prime. I do not think he will command more than 30 mil a season. Certainly not 37 mil.
Manaea will get 20 million, more or less depending on the years involved.
Marte value after discounting the signing bonus already paid out is 19.5 million. As you alluded to the price of players in Bader argument, I think eating 10 million would be more than enough to get a taker.
All this and reset the luxury tax. Should Cohen decide to spend above the luxury tax, then the arguments you provide are moot.
When I stated all this to reset the luxury tax. Trading away Marte with 10 mil and not retaining Maton would result in being 87.25 million to spend before the first luxury tax threshold. A lot of potential moves.
Finding value role players is the thing he’s known for tho. Especially arms. That’s what he did in Milwaukee which is the smallest market team there is but had been competitive during his tenure.
This. And he did it this year with the Mets. Add some money into the mix and Stearns can do a lot with the roster.
I’ve been thinking this lower back soreness is just a side effect of getting old but now I’m convinced that my spine is leaking.
“The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino as their current top three”
Did the Mets announce this or is it the article author’s speculation? Even with Quintana’s strong finish, I can’t imagine he’s ahead of David Peterson.
I wonder, who would pitch in those smaller rotations? Mookie Betts, maybe?
Hey, that’s not very nice! Don’t belittle him like that.
That was very small of you…
Short people got no reason to pitch.
Jose Altuve?
Blue Skies
Re: smaller rotations
I’ll raise you er no “lower you” by one Jose Altuve.
It kind of reminds me of earlier trades of Montas from the A’s and Mahle from the Reds, and I am sure there are more recent examples. Teams should be very wary of trading for pitchers from small market teams. They have to mind their pennies and likely go cheap on caring for their pitchers that they intend to flip anyways.
Blackburn is awful. Hopefully he never pitches another game for the Mets
Werent you the guy saying the Mets are a “clown show” literally every day from spring training until end of May?
You wanted them to sell off everything. YIKES.
Lol I’ve been off the boards a while but it looks like you’re so pathetic nobody even responds to your nonsense anymore lol.
@Don’tBeDumb they should have sold every single player that had value. This team isn’t good enough to win a world series
did you see the last season where they were one of the last 3 teams? did you miss that?
“this team isnt good enough to win a world series”
they were 2 games from it, you complete nutter
Title of article comes off as if this is a bad thing for the Mets.