The Opener: AL Wild Card Matchups, NL Wild Card Matchups

With another full day of postseason baseball on the docket, here are the four games to watch this afternoon and evening:

1. Astros vs. Tigers:

The first game of the day kicks off at 1:32pm CT in Houston, where the Tigers (1-0) will send Tyler Holton to the mound as an opener against the Astros (0-1) and their Game 2 starter Hunter Brown. Holton has quietly been one of the most effective multi-inning relievers in the game over the past two years, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and 3.55 SIERA in 179 2/3 innings. Reese Olson (3.53 ERA, 3.93 SIERA in 22 starts) is a likely option to come in and pitch multiple innings after Holton as this surprising Tigers team looks to advance to the ALDS. Alternatively, Detroit could be trying to save Olson for a potential Game 3 (or Game 1 of the ALDS).

Brown is enjoying a breakout sophomore season, with a 3.49 ERA and 3.74 SIERA in 170 innings pitched. He has been especially successful in the second half, with a 2.26 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break. After ace Framber Valdez couldn’t get the job done on Tuesday, the responsibility of keeping Houston’s ALCS streak alive falls on Brown’s shoulders. The Astros have appeared in the past seven consecutive American League Championship Series.

2. Orioles vs. Royals:

Game 2 between the Orioles (0-1) and Royals (1-0) starts at 3:38pm CT, with Kansas City’s Seth Lugo taking on Baltimore’s Zach Eflin. The Orioles came into the series as the clear favorites, but the Royals hung on to win 1-0 in an incredible Game 1 pitchers’ duel between Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes.

The second game of the series could make for another pitchers’ duel between Lugo and Eflin. Lugo is coming off a regular season for which he will surely receive Cy Young votes (3.00 ERA, 3.94 SIERA in 28 starts). Eflin hasn’t been quite as sharp all year (3.59 ERA, 3.97 SIERA in 28 starts), but his underlying numbers are similar to Lugo’s, and he looked excellent over the final two months of the season (2.37 ERA in eight starts). Considering how poorly the Royals’ offense performed in September, Eflin should also have the easier lineup to face as he strives to keep his team alive and snap the Orioles’ postseason losing streak at nine games.

3. Brewers vs. Mets:

The NL slate begins in the evening with Game 2 of the Brewers-Mets series starting at 6:38pm CT. The Brewers (0-1) will send Frankie Montas to the mound at American Family Field. Milwaukee has not won a postseason series since 2018, and the Brewers have never won so much as a single game in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Mets (1-0) will send Sean Manaea to the hill hoping to pull off a sweep. The Mets have not won a postseason series since 2015 when they won the NL pennant. Although Milwaukee has home-field advantage, New York has an edge when it comes to the pitching matchup. Manaea is coming off arguably the best season of his career (3.47 ERA, 3.97 SIERA in 32 starts), while Montas hasn’t been nearly as impressive (4.84 ERA, 4.38 SIERA in 30 starts).

4. Padres vs. Braves:

The final game of the evening begins at 7:38pm CT, with the Braves (0-1) sending Max Fried (3.25 ERA, 3.61 SIERA in 29 starts) to the bump against Joe Musgrove (3.88 ERA, 3.62 SIERA in 19 starts) of the Padres (1-0). While Fried has had the better season, Musgrove has been dominant since his return from the IL in August (2.15 ERA, 3.01 SIERA in nine starts). Working in Fried’s favor, however, is the fact that he is left-handed; the Padres have a .689 OPS against southpaws this season, much worse than their .764 OPS against righties.

Interestingly, this is the only Wild Card Series in which the higher-seeded team won the first game.