At the start of the offseason, MLBTR took a look at the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason. There were a handful of players that we considered for the list but who just missed, getting relegated to the Honorable Mentions section. One of those was Max Kepler.
Kepler, 32 in February, is a guy who does a lot of things well but doesn’t really stand out in any one particular area. On offense, he has a bit of pop but not too much. He did hit 36 home runs in 2019, but in hindsight, he may have been one of the beneficiaries of the juiced ball season. His career high apart from that is 24. His strikeout rate usually finishes somewhere in the vicinity of 20%, with a career rate of 18.6%. League average is usually in the 22-23% range in this era of baseball. His 9.7% walk rate is also a bit better than par, which is often 8-9%.
Put that all together and Kepler has a .237/.318/.429 career batting line and 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average overall. He’s been a bit better over the past six seasons, with a .240/.320/.436 line and 107 wRC+. He could perhaps get those numbers up if shielded from lefties more often, as he has hit .243/.326/.452 against righties in his career for a 111 wRC+, compared to a .221/.292/.363 line and 78 wRC+ against lefties.
Defensively, his contributions have been quite strong. In over 7,000 right field innings, he has accrued 48 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. From 2016 to the present, he’s actually the MLB leader in Outs Above Average in right field with 57, just ahead of Mookie Betts and his 54. DRS likes Betts far more, giving him 129 for that same time frame, but Kepler is fourth behind Betts, Aaron Judge and Jason Heyward.
Kepler also has over 1,000 innings in center field with positive ratings there as well. No club is going to sign him as a primary center fielder now, given his age and that he hasn’t played there since 2022, but perhaps some teams would consider him an emergency option there.
These various factors combine to make a guy who doesn’t overwhelm but also rarely disappoints. FanGraphs has never given him more than 3.9 wins above replacement in a season, which was his aforementioned 36-homer season. Otherwise, his career high is 2.8 fWAR. But he has nine straight seasons of being worth at least 1.0 fWAR, with seven of those 1.5 or higher, six worth at least 1.8 and five worth at least 2 wins.
What’s working against Kepler is that he just wrapped up a poor walk year. His missed time due to issues in both of his knees, getting into just 105 games and hitting only eight home runs. His 5.5% walk rate was a career worst by a few percentage points. His still racked up four OAA but DRS had him at exactly league average. Due to that rough platform, the MLBTR staff felt Kepler would be limited to a one-year deal in the $6-10MM range.
What could work for Kepler is that the market isn’t overflowing with his combination of skills. Looking at the lefty-swinging free agents, Juan Soto is obviously miles above the field. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are both coming off good years at the plate but both are considered poor defenders. Joc Pederson is a lefty who crushes the ball but he is also bad in the field and was limited strictly to designated hitter duties in 2024. Hyeseong Kim is expected to be a light-hitting utility guy at the MLB level. Michael Conforto is perhaps the closest free agent to Kepler on the market, though slightly inverted. Conforto’s offense and defense have both been close to league average in recent years, but with his bat slightly more attractive than his glove.
For clubs looking for a lefty-swinger who can play the field without destroying the lineup, there aren’t too many options. On top of that, Kepler shouldn’t cost too much. His 2024 was rough but the year prior saw him hit 24 home runs and slash .260/.332/.484 for a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. He could perhaps appeal to contenders or rebuilding clubs that would hope for him to bounce back and turn himself into a trade candidate. Teams like the Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Marlins and others are possible landing spots.
FIRST COMMENT LESSSSSSS GOOOO
sneaky good free agent signing for which ever team signs him
Rangers all day
Interesting player. Clearly a plus defensively. Has big platoon splits could be a platoon type player but really hasn’t been used like one in his career. Very inconsistent hitter. Has had injury problems.
Good job of summarizing the article, Mr. Chat GPT.
I don’t always read the articles or all of the article. I use the article as a launching tool to have a discussion. But you’re a tool so here we are……
Maybe so, but he gotcha good.
Is that why we are here? To get each other good???
There are reasons why I have so many people on mute……
Just having a little fun. In the words of the late Rodney King, “Can’t we all just get along?”
Is it because you try to use the article to start a conversation without reading the article? Perhaps your attempts would be better received if you started taking the time to read them.
I think anyone who knows me would know that I offer a lot of thoughts and opinions of my own. More than most people do.
I read some of the articles. Sometimes I dont. I am pretty familiar with Kepler and who he is already.
As always if you don’t want to talk to me then don’t reply to my comments. But being rude and snarky is lame.
@Blackpink ok, I’ll play along. If what you say is true, and you comment just to further the discussion, then you failed. You provided nothing that wasn’t already mentioned in the article.
And that’s why you so richly deserve what you got.
Got what I deserve???
Again if you dont like my comment don’t reply. Anyone who knows me knows I typically offer a lot of my own opinions. This comment wasn’t one of those comments. So what? Ignore it then. I ignore lots of comments. About to ignore all your future comments……
You a lame, Blackpink. So, you saw the article and thought “I’ll click and just say what I know about Kepler just in case other clowns like me didn’t read it and but wanted generic player info”?
Shame
And then you saw my comments and instead of just ignoring them, which was definitely an option, you took time out of your day to post what you just posted?
Did you really know he had big platoon splits before I said he did?
It was an option. Just like it was an option for you to not add useless stuff to the article because reading is too hard for you. You just had to rush to the comment section to add your nothingness.
You definitely smell like onions in the real world
Ok you have been muted. Peace.
You know you can just mute someone without announcing it, onion boy.
It aint that deep jeez
I’d actually really like him on the Giants but without a trade or two he probably wouldn’t fit.
@ CCooper8920. He’s basically Yaz. Kepler is less K prone, but isn’t as good in the OF. No need for the Giants to sign him when they already have him.
I agree, I don’t think they could have gotten Kepler for 9.25 Million though and from a business perspective yaz is a fan favorite and probably draws slightly more fans in SF on a non playoff team then Kepler does, and certainly sells more merch next year than Kepler would. I was big on him in 2019 when I thought he might reach free agency but the twins surprised me and pulled out their pocket books to lock him up. Guess he will never be a Giant but I sure would have liked it to happen in his prime.
I like Kepler for the Pirates and the Reds. Both could use a LH power bat. The Giants make sense too, as do the Padres, Mariners and even the Yankees if Soto leaves
if the yankees front office replaces soto with kepler i really think cashman might get fired.
At some point if Soto leaves he has to be replaced with someone and there isn’t anyone comparable available. So unless the Yankees are going to empty out the farm (literally) for unattainable players like Bryce Harper or Mookie Betts the team and fans are going to have to accept the replacement is likely going to be a significant downgrade
not sure he fits braves lineup. would love to see them take a chance on him tho
He fits if they dump Kelenic.
@Rsox
I think there are a good chance of the Bronx being burned to the ground if Max Kepler is introduced as the replacement for Soto…
Probably the guy that makes the most sense for the Braves considering the comments AA made in terms of what they were looking for. I think they should aim a little higher, but would probably have to hit the trade market for someone better, since he doesn’t like shelling out the cash on FA signings.
Don’t see how he fits on the Mariners unless he can suddenly play the infield. The outfield already has five guys and that’s not even including the utility players.
I don’t know why, but your screen name makes me laugh every time I see it
Are we having fun yet?
Raley is likely playing 1B so with Arozarena in LF and Rodriguez in CF they could platoon Kepler and Haniger in RF (since neither can stay healthy) and keep Robles as the 4th Outfielder.
Or play Robles cause he outperformed Haniger and Kepler cause why would you 4th OF your 3rd best OF?
Ask the Nationals how good Robles is that they cut him in the first place
Why would I ask anyone something against what I’ve seen myself? Performed way better when he got here. Washington made the right move for them so did Seattle
I dunno…two bad knees and the wrong side of 32. He could be on the slippery slope to being washed. Jerry Dipoto please stay away.
Kepler is a free agent. Don’t worry.
Well Jerry has signed such luminaries as Mitch Garver, AJ Pollock, and Tommy La Stella as free agents over the last couple of winters so ya just never know.
Seattle isn’t likely interested. They have their starting outfielders. They need a fourth outfielder, but I would imagine the preference would be a pre-arb player who could handle 1B vs. LHPs.
Looks like a potential Rockies signing. If I was Max and had a 1-2 year offer to play in Colorado, juice up my numbers then get traded to a contender, I feel that’d be a best case scenario for his career
Would be an interesting move for the White Sox. They just released a lefty DH in Gavin Sheets. Allowing him some games at DH could save his knees a bit, while still occasionally playing the corners. On a short term deal, it might be the kind of play where he regains value for a walk year next year. Also, no pressure from the team to win – just focus on personal stats.
This is a Rockies-Pirates-Marlins signing if ever there was one.
If he is still available at the beginning of spring training the Pirates may make him a low ball offer.
Don’t see them paying in the $6-10 million range.
We already have a lame third baseman that is often injured being paid in that range.
Maybe Pittsburgh should discuss a trade involving said third basemen for the Tigers 1B Torkelson. Fills needs on both teams. Bednar might be of interest to the Tigers too. Lots of pieces they could both work in to even it out.
Torque had a down year and now your pom poms are in a dither…..
Very disappointing…..
Even his “up year” when he hit 30 HRs is not as good as it sounds when you look closer. If they can get better by trading him then why not? Defensive whiz Hayes at 3B and sign a short term deal for a 1B like Walker who can hit, play defense and doesn’t block the future at the position (Liranzo or Briceno).
Astros
Corner outfielder that doesn’t hit for a ton of power, doesn’t get on base and plays good defense, Hoyers listening!
Now all the Bellinger rumors make sense, Hoyer loves himself some league average offense players who play good defense. Probably sign him and trade Caissie and Alcantara for a couple middle relievers without options.
Good expert on planetary motion off the bench.
I wonder if the Royals would take a gamble on him
I wonder if he would take a gamble on the Royals..
been watching him for years…seems to hate the game…good luck whoever signs him
Kepler is a hard guy to project. He seems to change shape from time to time like he’s tinkering to chase results. He can hit the ball really hard and control the strike zone, but so often it doesn’t add up to the results you’d expect. If a team is looking for a buy low guy who might outperform projections, he’s an intriguing candidate.
Padres if Profar isn’t re-signed…….
He’s a decent player, and it’s not like the Twins have dudes lined up that force him out of the lineup either; consider the possible $$$ numbers being tossed around here (which aren’t outrageous at all) and that those numbers are too expensive for the Twins FO–can’t afford an average player. And then to see all these prognosticators picking which of the “top 50 FAs” the Twins will sign, ROTFLMAO.
The Twins had 2 more lefty outfielders on the team last season (Larnach, Wallner), Another who broke in last season (Keirsey), and two top 30 prospects (Rodriguez, Jenkins) who are very close. If anything, the Twins can trade yet another lefty outfielder
And neither of those guys have pushed Max off the field and grabbed the job the last three years. Up until last year, Larnach was almost dropped. Are these guys better? meh. cheaper? Well yes. Jenkins is another story, but the Twins are known for dragging their feet on bringing guys up, and how many of their “can’t miss” guys end up having caveats, be it injury, platoon only, etc?
Thought I read earlier he was retiring,on Twins board!?
that was Alex Kiriloff
That’s Kirilloff
The Guardians always need outfielders!!!
I’d rather the Pirates sign Conforto, but I’d be happy if they signed Kepler. Both are better options than anyone currently on the roster.
The article seems to downplays the major concerns about his declining bat and injury history.