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Max Kepler

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Crawford, Harper

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The Phillies scored just one run over a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros this week. They’re still in strong position at 47-34 but have had a poor month offensively, ranking 25th in scoring. Max Kepler has been among those struggling, as he’s hitting .167/.265/.350 over 68 plate appearances in June.

Kepler was out of the lineup for three consecutive games between June 22-25. The Phils faced left-handed starting pitchers in each contest and wanted to shield the lefty hitter from an unfavorable platoon matchup. That didn’t sit well with Kepler, who told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb on Thursday that he was told he “was going to be the starting left fielder” when he signed a $10MM free agent deal with Philadelphia. He added that not playing every day has impacted his rhythm.

The veteran outfielder doubled down on those comments today. “I signed here being told that I was going to be the starting everyday left fielder,” he told reporters before tonight’s series opener in Atlanta (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer). “That’s why I came here.” Manager Rob Thomson pushed back somewhat about Kepler’s gripe, noting that he’s been in the starting lineup for 60 of the team’s 81 games. He’s making his 61st start tonight, hitting fifth and playing left field against Atlanta righty Bryce Elder.

To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest the relationship between Kepler and Thomson has become untenable. The outfielder said today that if he were pushed into a bench role, he’d “take it on and hope to make the most of it.” It’s nevertheless apparent that he wants more playing time against southpaws. A career .221/.291/.362 hitter against lefty pitching, he has hit .222 with one home run in 49 plate appearances against lefties this year.

The greater concern is that Kepler hasn’t produced with the platoon advantage either. He took a .205/.307/.389 slash against righties into tonight’s contest. Kepler had a solid April but owns a .179/.270/.364 line since the start of May. It’s not all that surprising that Thomson would prefer to get another righty bat into the lineup against left-handers when Kepler isn’t performing. Otto Kemp moved from first base to left field for all three of those appearances, which drew utility infielders Buddy Kennedy or Edmundo Sosa into the lineup.

Kepler’s struggles come at a time when outfield prospect Justin Crawford is hitting in Triple-A. The 21-year-old Crawford, a former first-round pick, has a .332/.408/.435 mark at the top minor league level. The son of Carl Crawford, Justin has minimal power but has excellent speed and has shown improved plate discipline. Gelb writes that the organization is bullish on Crawford despite some other teams questioning his offensive approach. He has a 63% ground-ball rate in the minors, a rate that only Jose Iglesias has topped at the MLB level (minimum 100 plate appearances). Thomson told reporters on Thursday that Crawford has “absolutely” put himself on the radar for a big league call.

It leaves the front office with some interesting decisions a month out from the trade deadline. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said this week that the bullpen was understandably their top priority. He downplayed the possibility of adding to the offense. At the same time, the Phillies have gotten minimal production from both corner outfield spots. Kepler and company haven’t hit well in left; Nick Castellanos has been a solid hitter but remains a defensive liability in right.

They could turn to Crawford, but that’d probably require benching one of Kepler or Castellanos. (Crawford can play center field, but Brandon Marsh has been one of the team’s better hitters following a dismal April.) There’s obviously no guarantee that Crawford would produce in his first look at MLB pitching. The Phillies are in a tight battle with the Mets in the NL East and can’t afford to be too patient if he were to struggle.

The lineup should get a major boost with Bryce Harper’s forthcoming return from a wrist injury. Harper hasn’t played since June 6 but told reporters this afternoon that a return next week is “definitely in play” (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). He took on-field batting practice at Truist Park and is scheduled to hit off a pair of Phils minor league pitchers tomorrow. That could result in a little more outfield playing time for Kemp, their preferred fill-in at first. The 25-year-old rookie hasn’t hit a ton in 17 MLB games — though he did just take Elder deep for his first career home run — but he mashed at a .313/.416/.594 clip in Triple-A.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Free Agent Profile: Max Kepler

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At the start of the offseason, MLBTR took a look at the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason. There were a handful of players that we considered for the list but who just missed, getting relegated to the Honorable Mentions section. One of those was Max Kepler.

Kepler, 32 in February, is a guy who does a lot of things well but doesn’t really stand out in any one particular area. On offense, he has a bit of pop but not too much. He did hit 36 home runs in 2019, but in hindsight, he may have been one of the beneficiaries of the juiced ball season. His career high apart from that is 24. His strikeout rate usually finishes somewhere in the vicinity of 20%, with a career rate of 18.6%. League average is usually in the 22-23% range in this era of baseball. His 9.7% walk rate is also a bit better than par, which is often 8-9%.

Put that all together and Kepler has a .237/.318/.429 career batting line and 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average overall. He’s been a bit better over the past six seasons, with a .240/.320/.436 line and 107 wRC+. He could perhaps get those numbers up if shielded from lefties more often, as he has hit .243/.326/.452 against righties in his career for a 111 wRC+, compared to a .221/.292/.363 line and 78 wRC+ against lefties.

Defensively, his contributions have been quite strong. In over 7,000 right field innings, he has accrued 48 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. From 2016 to the present, he’s actually the MLB leader in Outs Above Average in right field with 57, just ahead of Mookie Betts and his 54. DRS likes Betts far more, giving him 129 for that same time frame, but Kepler is fourth behind Betts, Aaron Judge and Jason Heyward.

Kepler also has over 1,000 innings in center field with positive ratings there as well. No club is going to sign him as a primary center fielder now, given his age and that he hasn’t played there since 2022, but perhaps some teams would consider him an emergency option there.

These various factors combine to make a guy who doesn’t overwhelm but also rarely disappoints. FanGraphs has never given him more than 3.9 wins above replacement in a season, which was his aforementioned 36-homer season. Otherwise, his career high is 2.8 fWAR. But he has nine straight seasons of being worth at least 1.0 fWAR, with seven of those 1.5 or higher, six worth at least 1.8 and five worth at least 2 wins.

What’s working against Kepler is that he just wrapped up a poor walk year. His missed time due to issues in both of his knees, getting into just 105 games and hitting only eight home runs. His 5.5% walk rate was a career worst by a few percentage points. His still racked up four OAA but DRS had him at exactly league average. Due to that rough platform, the MLBTR staff felt Kepler would be limited to a one-year deal in the $6-10MM range.

What could work for Kepler is that the market isn’t overflowing with his combination of skills. Looking at the lefty-swinging free agents, Juan Soto is obviously miles above the field. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are both coming off good years at the plate but both are considered poor defenders. Joc Pederson is a lefty who crushes the ball but he is also bad in the field and was limited strictly to designated hitter duties in 2024. Hyeseong Kim is expected to be a light-hitting utility guy at the MLB level. Michael Conforto is perhaps the closest free agent to Kepler on the market, though slightly inverted. Conforto’s offense and defense have both been close to league average in recent years, but with his bat slightly more attractive than his glove.

For clubs looking for a lefty-swinger who can play the field without destroying the lineup, there aren’t too many options. On top of that, Kepler shouldn’t cost too much. His 2024 was rough but the year prior saw him hit 24 home runs and slash .260/.332/.484 for a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. He could perhaps appeal to contenders or rebuilding clubs that would hope for him to bounce back and turn himself into a trade candidate. Teams like the Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Marlins and others are possible landing spots.

Twins Outright Cole Irvin

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September 30: Irvin has been outrighted to Triple-A St. Paul, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

September 25: The Twins made a handful of moves before tonight’s games against the Marlins. Minnesota designated left-hander Cole Irvin for assignment, optioned southpaw Brent Headrick and placed outfielder Matt Wallner on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain. They’re replaced on the active roster by Justin Topa, Jorge Alcala and Austin Martin. Minnesota recalled Alcala and Martin from Triple-A St. Paul while activating Topa from the 60-day injured list.

Minnesota brought Irvin in on a waiver claim from the Orioles last week. The 30-year-old southpaw made four appearances out of Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen. He allowed five runs across 3 2/3 innings with four walks and only two strikeouts. Irvin made it through a scoreless inning yesterday against Miami but needed to work around a pair of free passes.

This has been a generally tough season for Irvin, whom the O’s had DFA twice as well. He bounced between Baltimore’s rotation and long relief work, combining for a 4.86 ERA across 107 1/3 innings. Irvin had been a durable source of roughly league average innings for the A’s between 2021-22, but he allowed 4.68 earned runs per nine over a season and a half in Baltimore.

The Twins will put Irvin on waivers in the next few days. He’ll almost certainly clear and would likely elect free agency at that point. Minnesota acquired Irvin after the calendar flipped to September. Even if they make the postseason — which now looks to be a long shot as they’ve fallen two games back of the Royals and Tigers with five to play — Irvin would have been ineligible to participate. It’s possible he’ll need to take a minor league deal this offseason.

Topa, 33, steps right into must-win games for his team debut. The Twins acquired him from the Mariners as part of the Jorge Polanco deal. They no doubt envisioned him as a high-leverage bullpen piece after he’d thrown 69 innings of 2.61 ERA ball in a breakout year for Seattle. A lengthy injury history had prevented Topa from emerging until his age-32 campaign, though, and that unfortunately resurfaced with his new organization.

The right-hander suffered a left knee injury in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a partially torn patellar tendon. A rehab stint in July proved unsuccessful. Topa began a new rehab stint last week, pitching two innings in as many Triple-A appearances. With the minor league season finished and time running low for the MLB club, he’ll head to Target Field.

Minnesota’s bullpen has played a role in their second half collapse. Only the Red Sox have a higher bullpen ERA since the All-Star Break. They haven’t blown many leads but have had a tough time keeping games from getting out of hand. Baldelli might be reluctant to plug Topa into leverage spots after a six-month layoff. He’ll at least be a high-upside option in the middle innings.

The Twins will need to mount their playoff push without one of their more productive offensive players. Wallner is hitting .259/.372/.523 with 13 homers across 261 plate appearances. He’s done for the rest of the regular season and would miss at least the Wild Card series if the Twins qualify. Oblique strains usually cost a player multiple weeks, so there’s a good chance his season is over.

Max Kepler told reporters yesterday that he also won’t make it back during the regular season (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). Kepler has missed most of September with a left knee injury. The Twins are going with an outfield of Willi Castro, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach tonight against Miami righty Edward Cabrera.

Twins Activate Kody Funderburk From Injured List

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The Twins announced that they have reinstated left-hander Kody Funderburk from the 60-day injured list. Catcher Jair Camargo was optioned to open an active roster spot. Outfielder Max Kepler has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot. Prior to the official announcement, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reported on X that Funderburk would be activated.

Funderburk, 27, had an intriguing debut last year. Called up in August, he was able to pitch 12 innings for the Twins with a 0.75 earned run average. He struck out 40.4% of batters faced and got grounders on 54.5% of batters faced.

He hasn’t been able to maintain results that strong in 2024. He currently has 33 2/3 innings on the year with a 5.61 ERA. His ground ball rate is the same as last year but his strikeout rate has essentially been halved, landing at 20.3% so far. In July, he landed on the 15-injured list due to a left oblique strain, later being transferred to the 60-day version.

The Twins have just one lefty in their bullpen at the moment in Caleb Thielbar. They have had Steven Okert, Cole Irvin and Brent Headrick on the roster somewhat recently but Okert and Irvin were designated for assignment in recent weeks while Headrick was optioned a couple of days ago.

The club’s season is currently hanging by a thread. They are three games back of the Tigers and Royals with each team having three games remaining. The Twins hold the tiebreakers over both of those clubs but still have long odds of getting back into a playoff spot at this point. Funderburk will give manager Rocco Baldelli a second lefty option in the bullpen as they try to hang on. The Twins host the Orioles this weekend as the Royals are in Atlanta and the Tigers host the White Sox.

As for Kepler, this move will end his season, regardless of whether the club makes the postseason or not. He landed on the IL September 2 due to left patellar tendinitis in his knee. He told Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic a couple of days ago that he wasn’t likely to return and might need offseason surgery.

That would be unfortunate timing as he is heading to free agency for the first time in his career. He and the Twins signed a five-year, $35MM extension going into 2019, with that deal containing a $10MM club option for 2024 that was eventually picked up.

Kepler is a strong defender on the grass, with career tallies of 50 Defensive Runs Saved and 66 Outs Above Average. He has occasionally paired that with strong offense, though not consistently. He hit 24 home runs last year and drew walks at a 9.2% clip, leading to a .260/.332/.484 batting line and 123 wRC+. But this year, around multiple IL stints, he has just eight homers and a 5.5% walk rate. His .253/.302/.380 line has led to a 94 wRC+.

Twins Activate Carlos Correa From 10-Day Injured List

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10:29AM: The Twins have officially announced the moves.

9:14AM: The Twins will activate shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game with the Reds.  Outfielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr. will be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.

It has been over two months since Correa last appeared in Minnesota’s lineup, as the three-time All-Star has been sidelined by plantar fasciitis in his right foot.  Correa played through a similar injury in his left foot last season and (not coincidentally) struggled through the worst full season of his 10 years in the majors, so both the shortstop and the Twins seemed intent on letting Correa fully heal up before getting back to action.

Though Correa initially stated that this current injury wasn’t as painful as his 2023 plantar fasciitis, the discomfort has continued to linger until this past week, when Correa told MLB.com and other media that a new treatment method had allowed him to walk and run on his right heel.  He took part in a live batting practice session on Friday and emerged feeling good enough that the Twins are now comfortable in making a roster move.

After his down year in 2023, Correa rebounded in a big way with one of his best seasons.  The shortstop has 13 home runs and a .308/.377/.520 slash line over 317 plate appearances, and had been named to the All-Star team before his plantar fasciitis prevented him from taking part in the Midsummer Classic.  Among all players with 300 or more PA, only 11 players have a higher wRC+ than Correa’s 152 mark.

Byron Buxton also has a 142 wRC+ in 339 PA this season, and the slugger was just activated off Minnesota’s IL on Thursday.  Needless to say, the returns of Buxton and Correa are an enormous boost to a struggling Twins club that has lost 16 of its last 24 games.  Minnesota still holds a 2.5-game lead over the Tigers for the last AL wild card slot, and the Twins could revive their chances at the AL Central title when they visit the first-place Guardians for a big four-game series that begins on Monday.

Max Kepler might be activated from the injured list for that series in Cleveland, as Kepler (out since September 5 due to patellar tendinitis in his left knee) joined Correa in the live BP session on Friday.  Some reinforcements could also be coming later in early October on the pitching side, as Chris Paddack had a 20-pitch bullpen session on Friday as he recovers from a left forearm strain.  It has also been two months on the shelf for Paddack, but he told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale Jr. and other reporters that he is aiming to be ready for relief work during the postseason.

Twins Place Max Kepler On Injured List, Select DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

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The Twins have placed right fielder Max Kepler on the 10-day injured list with patellar tendinitis in his left knee and selected the contract of outfielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr. from Triple-A St. Paul, per a team announcement. Left-hander Kody Funderburk was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Keirsey, who’ll be making his MLB debut when he first gets into a game.

Kepler, 31, came out of the All-Star break on a tear, hitting .316/.357/.468 in 84 plate appearances and boosting his season line to .271/.320/.412 in the process. Coupled with his strong defense in right field, he looked to be on his way to another solid all-around season. He’s since fallen into a dreadful swoon at the plate, however, tallying just one hit in his past 17 plate appearances and batting only .116/.156/.140 in his last 45 turns at the dish. He’s been in and out of the lineup while trying to play through discomfort in his problematic knee, but after sitting out the past four contests, he’ll now head to the injured list and hope some down time will get him back to full strength.

It’s an ill-timed injury for Kepler, both in the team sense — the Twins are a very likely Wild Card club but still hoping to chase down the division-leading Guardians — and in a personal sense. He’s in the final season of an extension signed prior to the 2019 season. That deal guaranteed him $35MM over five seasons and grew to a six-year, $44MM deal when the Twins picked up a 2024 option on him after a strong 2023 season. He’s now on the cusp of reaching free agency for the first time. Kepler had already seen his output take a step back from last year’s .260/.332/.484 slash (124 wRC+) and 24 homers, but after this recent lull at the plate his season-long batting line has wilted to a sub-par .253/.302/.380.

Taking Kepler’s place on the active roster will be the 27-year-old Keirsey. The Twins selected him with their fourth-round pick back in 2018. He’s old to be considered a true “prospect” and was passed over in last year’s Rule 5 Draft even after hitting a combined .294/.366/.455 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. The Twins are surely glad to have been able to hang onto him, as Keirsey now climbs to the majors after an impressive season that’s seen him produce a .292/.364/.477 slash in St. Paul. He’s connected on 14 home runs and swiped 36 bags in 43 attempts.

In scouting reports over the years, Keirsey has drawn praise for plus speed and athleticism. He’s seen as a viable center fielder and plus option in the corners. Scouts have questioned his hit tool, particularly after he fanned in 30% of his High-A plate appearances in 2021, but he’s trimmed that mark down to a more passable 23% in each of the past three seasons (22.8% in 2024).

If nothing else, Keirsey has the makings of a quality fourth outfielder who can be optioned back and forth between St. Paul and Minneapolis over the next few years, but he’s now had back-to-back productive seasons in the upper minors and could be something of a late-bloomer. He’ll add to a growing stock of lefty-hitting Twins outfielders on the 40-man roster. Even with Kepler set to hit free agency, the Twins have Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez all on the 40-man roster, to say nothing of center fielder Byron Buxton and infielder/outfielder Austin Martin, who hit from the other side of the plate.

Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

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The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add.  RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.”  It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season.  Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season.  Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching.  Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler.  However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate.  For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season.  Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package.  That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects.  Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Twins Option Louie Varland, Select Ronny Henriquez

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The Twins announced a series of moves today, activating outfielder Max Kepler from the injured list and selecting the contract of right-hander Ronny Henriquez. Those two will take the roster spots of right-hander Louie Varland and catcher Jair Camargo, who have been optioned. Right-hander Daniel Duarte was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Henriquez.

The Minnesota rotation has shifted quite a bit since last year, as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency after the 2023 season. Mahle was already out of the picture after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of last year, but the departures of Gray and Maeda left big holes relative to late last year.

The club acquired Anthony DeSclafani in the winter to take one rotation spot and it was hoped the remaining innings could be taken up by a healthy Chris Paddack or continued development from Varland. Unfortunately, none of three plans have worked for the Twins thus far. DeSclafani required flexor tendon surgery last month, which will keep him on the injured list for the entire year. Meanwhile, Paddack has an earned run average of 8.36 so far this year while Varland is even higher at 9.18.

The Twins’ faith in Varland wasn’t totally without merit, as he showed some encouraging signs last year. He tossed 68 innings for the big league club, striking out 25.1% of batters faced while walking just 6%. His ERA was up at 4.63 thanks to allowing 16 home runs, a 21.1% rate of fly balls leaving the yard. That was about double league average, which is part of the reason why his 3.77 SIERA was almost a full run lower than his ERA. He also had a 3.97 ERA in his Triple-A work last year.

Here in 2024, he’s already allowed six homers in just 16 2/3 innings, a massive 35.3% rate. That would naturally regress going forward, which is why his 4.30 SIERA this year is less than half of his ERA, but that doesn’t entirely wave away his results so far this season. Varland’s strikeout rate has dropped to 20.7% and his walk rate to 10.3%, both significantly worse than last year. After yesterday’s start, where Varland didn’t make it through the third inning, manager Rocco Baldelli was noncommittal about Varland sticking in the rotation.

“We have a whole lot of things we have to talk about,” Baldelli said, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. “We have to have really almost anything on the table right now to find a way to improve.” He also said: “We’re going to have to be open to making roster moves and finding new ways to use players and figure some things out.”

Those rotation struggles have played a big part in the Twins limping out of the gate this year. The defending division champions are currently 7-13, putting them in a distant fourth place in the early going. They will obviously have to get the group in better shape as the season rolls along to get back in contention, and that starts with giving Varland a breather in the minors.

He’ll head to Triple-A and look to get himself back in good form. The length of his optional assignment could potentially impact him from a service time perspective, depending on when he comes back and for how long. He came into this season with 108 days of service time, meaning he needs to accrue 64 days this year to get to 172 and hit the one-year mark.

The Twins could have Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober throw the next four games but will need someone to retake Varland’s spot by Friday at the latest. It’s possible that will be Simeon Woods Richardson, who came up to start one game of the club’s doubleheader on April 13. Brent Headrick and Matt Canterino are also on the 40-man roster but the former is on the IL with a forearm strain and the latter has been dealing with a rotator cuff strain and hasn’t pitched in the minors yet this year.

For now, Henriquez takes a spot on the roster and could give the club a multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He has thrown 13 1/3 Triple-A innings over seven appearances so far this year with a 4.05 ERA, striking out 14 opponents while giving out just two walks.

He has 11 2/3 innings of major league experience, which came with the Twins in 2022, but he struggled in the minors last year and was non-tendered. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal and he’ll now rejoin the roster, giving a fresh arm to a bullpen that had to cover a lot of innings after Varland’s poor start yesterday. Henriquez still has an option and can be sent back down to Triple-A at a later date without having to be exposed to waivers.

As for Duarte, it was reported over the weekend that he would require season-ending elbow surgery, so his move to the 60-day IL was an inevitability.

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