Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025

Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).

That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.

MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.

As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.

Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)

Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.

If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.

While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.