Walker Buehler has been among the most popular targets on the rotation market for teams seeking upside on short-term deals, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds the Mets to the growing list of teams with interest in the longtime Dodgers righty. Buehler has also reportedly drawn interest from the Braves, Yankees and even the low-payroll Athletics.
The Mets stand to lose three members of their 2024 rotation, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all reaching free agency this offseason. They’ll also be without Christian Scott, their top pitching prospect who made his MLB debut in ’24, for most or all of the 2025 season after he underwent UCL surgery. The Mets already replenished some of those innings with last night’s agreement to sign veteran righty Frankie Montas to a two-year contract, but there’s a clear need for some additional help.
Buehler, 30, was once one of the National League’s most promising young pitchers but has seen that trajectory slowed by injuries. He pitched just 65 innings in 2022 and missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. His World Series heroics still loom large in the minds of most fans, but Buehler’s 2024 results on the whole were generally dismal. He totaled only 75 1/3 innings and did so with a 5.38 ERA and the worst rate stats of his career. Even in his first postseason appearance, the Padres roughed him up for six runs in five innings during the National League Division Series.
Buehler’s velocity was down nearly two miles per hour from its 2020 peak, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were way off from his prior career levels (27% and 6.3%, respectively). This past season’s paltry 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th out of the 204 big league pitchers who tossed at least 70 innings on the year. His career rate coming into the year had been a sharp 11.6%.
Whether Buehler can recapture some or all of his 2018-21 form is a question someone will pay a good bit of cash to find out. Over those four years, he combined to log a 2.82 earned run average in 564 innings, fanning 27.7% of opponents against a 6.1% walk while sitting in the upper 90s with his heater. That upside is tantalizing, but it’s also been three years and one major elbow surgery since we’ve seen that version of Buehler with any real consistency. The Dodgers could’ve made him a $21.05MM qualifying offer in hopes of keeping him but instead declined to make that offer. The lack of draft pick compensation hanging over Buehler’s head will surely enhance his appeal, but it’s also perhaps a red flag that the team that knows him best opted against that one-year offer (despite possessing some of the deepest pockets in MLB).
Buehler fits Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns’ ostensible preference for shorter-term deals that maintain roster flexibility. As Sherman points out, Stearns inked ten free agents last year during his first season in control of the Mets and only guaranteed a second year to Sean Manaea (whose contract gave him the right to opt out of that second year, which he ultimately chose to do). During his time as the Brewers’ president of baseball ops, Stearns similarly avoided the deep waters of the free agent market.
It’s still not fully clear whether that prior mentality will continue to drive his moves in Queens, however. The Brewers never had anywhere near the level of spending capacity the Mets possess, so it’s only natural that Stearns eschewed risky long-term commitments to free agents during his time in Milwaukee. And while he did so last offseason with the Mets, that was in part because the 2024 season was largely viewed as a transitional year while the Mets waited for dead money from the Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and James McCann deals (among a few smaller-scale examples) to come off the books.
The Mets are now about $150MM shy of their 2024 spending levels, per RosterResource. A notable portion of that is earmarked for a hopeful signing of Juan Soto, of course, but there’s no reason the Mets couldn’t take a more aggressive stance elsewhere in free agency and broker some lengthier and more impactful deals for starting pitchers.
What type of deals Buehler commands could ultimately boil down to personal preference. Sherman suggests there are clubs with interest on one-year arrangements and others open to the idea of multi-year deals with opt-out opportunities. Speculatively speaking, Buehler would appear best-positioned if he takes a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter, whether that’s a straight one-year pact or two years with an opt-out. Doing so could position him as a candidate for a nine-figure deal if he bounces back in 2025. However, if he wants to max out right now, there could conceivably be teams willing to offer medium-length contracts with lighter annual values than he’d receive on a straight one-year deal or on a two-year pact with an opt-out.
Any team would be lucky to have him. Great mindset.
Come to the great ole Giants ballpark and rebuild value on a typical 1 year deal with a second year option he can opt out on. Great ballpark to pitch in.
I would expect him to prefer a shorter/smaller deal with opt outs to play on a contender next season and try to reenter free agency.
I can’t imagine Buehler will take any deal that doesn’t at least give him a chance to opt out after 2025. His upside is too large and he’s too young.
The Mets certainly have experience handing those type of deals out.
I think the Mets will sign Burnes and a lesser starter to go along with him. But if they get Soto they might not have enough for Burnes and then Buehler would make more sense. Heck maybe they sign both Burnes and Buehler they can afford it.
He will turn 31 during the middle of the season and he will never be where he was early on his career.
You have no idea if he will ever get back to his early career success.
You don’t get healthier and higher velocity with age.
Buehler can get healthier than he was in 2024 I think thats clear as day. The only question is how much healthier.
I see him signing with the Dodgers on a prove it type deal with incentives. He wants to be a Dodger and you love the fight and pure honesty he has with himself.
How many starters do the Dodgers need?
Zerbs63: How do you know he wants to be a Dodger? You know him personally?
Gonsolin was pretty good before the injury, and he is on the books for 5M and a year of control.
He’d bring back a nice return in a trade but at what point do the Dodgers have to start reeling in the payroll? If they are at that point, you’d have to say Gonsolin is going to be their fifth starter with May and Bobby Miller as their fall back plan.
11
Can never have enough starting pitching.
Nigel Tufnel, is that you?
Pitchers don’t peak early, hitters do; with pitchers it’s all about mileage (career innings). Look at Snell- won 2 CYs because he hasn’t thrown too many innings compared to others his age.
And this is why Chris Sale’s rebound this season was nothing short of a miracle. White Sox ran him into the ground before he left for Boston!
Some team is going to blow a lot of money on this guy.
What??? Mets have $150 million avv and Soto is getting maybe $50 million avv tops so that leaves $100 million avv to sign 2 aces and other pieces. I predict Mets spend enough to be below $301 2025 Cohen tax level so that gives them $120 million to spend to sign Soto, 2 pitchers and a 1B
Why? According to the mouth breathing geniuses on this site the Mets were done after Montas. “Dollar Tree David” IIRC .. or wait are they back to being the “overpaying idiots” now? I can’t keep up with all the fabricated narratives from the trolls
Pretty trolly post yourself there DBD. Not sure fighting fire with fire is the best strategy to use here, nor have I seen anyone from writers to commenters suggest the Mets, who lost 60% of their rotation to free agency, would only be looking to add one middle/lower tier SP with $150MM coming off the books.
I hate Mets fans as much as much as anyone but this comment doesn’t seem to be based in reality.
You both recognized and failed to recognize that my comment was tongue-in-cheek?
Im making light of the onslaught of comments about how the rotation is now Senga – Montas – Peterson – Megill – Blackburn/Butto.
I’m very aware that they’re likely to add 1-2 more arms at the minimum
Lol it took me a minute but I figured it out……
I gotta stop doing stupid comments like that
Who in their right mind would ever be a Phillies fan?
Bart Harley Jarvis!
@Don’tBeDumb Buehler should have been the one to receive what Montas got. PED abuser Montas is not even a fifth starter in my opinion. Stearns is cheapening out this off season, especially in the bullpen. Signing guys like Sean Reid Foley, Grant Hartwig, Dylan Covey, etc. won’t win you any World Series, I garentee it
I garentee your grammar is on par with your ability to construct a competitive roster
This would great move, if he is even 75% of his old self he would be a great#2 ,
If Montas commanded 17/18 million. Walker better ask for 20-22m.
I wish the dodgers were interested in him
Oh yes, allow all MLBTR reader a moment of silence for the dodgers not showing interest in 1 player
He’s our big game pitcher, best since Hershiser, and he closed out a World Series. Dodger fans are allowed to reflect on the idea of Buehler leaving after that with some sadness.
Watching Hershiser leave was tough and I imagine this will seem similar.
desertball: Except that Buehler couldn’t hold Hershiser’s jockstrap.
As a Dodger fan, I love Buehler for his past contributions. But if he winds up elsewhere, it might be a red flag that the Dodgers committed $182M to Snell when they could have had Buehler for considerably less. That’s placing a lot of stock in the limited innings of effectiveness Buehler posted in October. It’ll be interesting to see how his market plays out.
Snell is better. Snell seemed to want to play on the West Coast and he’s a lefty. The Dodgers aren’t really a team that needs to find value at every turn. They will be ok.
Absolutely. But Buehler is a legacy pitcher for the Dodgers, which makes it interesting that he might end up elsewhere.
Interesting Buehler fact: He had one regular-season win in both seasons in which the Dodgers won the World Series. In his nine starts in 2020, he was 1-0 with eight no decisions.
@EL kabong
Snell is alot better than beuhler.
I realize that. But if Buehler still has it, why wouldn’t the Dodgers bring him back when it’s clear they’ll be going with a six-man rotation? His post-season pedigree would practically demand it.
@El
The dodgers don’t need him, they did fine without him last year (obviously)
not to mention his injury history is brutal with those two Tommy John surgery’s.
He’ll go to a lower tier team and hopefully do good to get himself back to where he was before (hopefully)
The Dodgers did fine, although they utilized 40 pitchers (17 starters) in the regular season.
Another team signing Bujehler will come at significant risk. And with the apparent interest in his services, he’s likely to get a multi-year deal in the $20M AAV with player opt-outs. That’s quite an investment for any team. And it probably won’t be a lower-tier team. From what we’re reading and hearing, contenders are interested. It’s all based on his pre-injury past and a few (obviously crucial) innings in October. Huge caveat, though for his sake Im hope it works out.
El Kabong: Have you considered the possibility that Buehler might simply prefer to leave LA?
Two years and an opt out sounds like a perfect deal for him no matter where he goes. He has the pedigree, but had an understandably tough go after such a long injury layoff. Looked closer to himself during the playoffs which bodes well. It’d behoove him to improve next year and go for a better contract after the 25 season.
If you’re a 30 yr old SP with injury history & coming off the worst yr of your career, come on down to queens!!!
He’s lucky he was on a playoff team. That 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP don’t look promising.
Didnt give up a run in nlcs or ws
That’ll get ya a 3yr deal despite a terrible regular season
The Dodgers had money set aside for Buehler. They knew when FA was coming for him. That money went to Snell.
With that said, the Dodgers still have an opening and a short term deal for a starting pitcher that has meant as much as Buehler has to that organization has to be on the table. They always declined to offer Kershaw the QO because they never wanted to force a deal on him, and they didn’t want to interfere with his market if he could get a better offer. It’s good that Buehler gets to see what his market is, and take his time to make a decision, but I don’t see him leaving. He was wearing a game used Orel Hershiser ‘88 WS jersey during the parade. Dude bleeds Dodger Blue.
@derall76,
That is how I felt heading into the off-season—and perhaps still do. The Dodgers appear to be headed toward a six-man rotation. The quintet of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, and Kershaw could all benefit from an extra day of rest. This is particularly true for a team that wants to make a deep October run. Given previous health concerns, Buehler would be a perfect candidate for that sixth slot. So would Sasaki (should they sign him) or Gonsolin, also recovering from an injury. I figure Dustin May as a possible reliever.
We’ll find out about Buehler’s 2025 destination soon enough. But for now, I’m pleased with the rotation depth. As we’ve learned in recent Dodger seasons, you can never have enough starting pitching.
An unusual position for NYM fans to have faith their rotation will be fortified with a top name or 2. But that won’t stop the clickbait stories flipping out about you “can’t go into season with Senga, Montas, Peterson, Megill”. The PTSD from the Brodie Van whatshisname and Eppler eras runs deep
Eppler signed Verlander and Scherzer.
I like Buehler a lot but the Mets should focus on resigning Manea and signing Stearns guy Burnes. I believe both will happen. If not and Buehler is available then get him.
I mean it wouldn’t be a bad deal in a vacuum for a club this pitching needy. However with montas signed already if I was a Mets fan I’d probably rather be hearing about the mets aggressively pursuing a higher upside guy like burnes rather than another short term reclamation type arm rn.
I like Buehler, but I think a rebuilding, young team on the edge of contention will be the best fit for Buehler, like the Nationals. The Nationals need one more guy and could sign Buehler on a Manaea-like deal with an opt-out clause to potentially add to their rotation.
If Milwaukee and his first year with the Mets is any indication of how Stearns will proceed to build the Mets, he’s going to ‘fill’ the rotation with 2-3 pitchers and either trade for or grow the top two. Less risk with this approach and keep the $$$ on the field as opposed to the mound. With the $100M+ to spend, I can see Cohen waiting to top whatever Soto tells him he received and blow the rest on relief and another two starters to round out the staff. I certainly think he’ll move prospects if he can get the right SP on a cheap contract like Crochet.
As a Dodger fan, it was hard to see Orel leave until you saw what he did after he left. Sometimes it is good to end things at the right time.
From a fun perspective- I could see Buehler going to SD. They need some rotation help and this would come with limited future payroll liability and Walker gets another shot in the playoffs.
Bring Syndagaurd in on a Spring training invite if they sign him . Maybe he can learn something.
Seems to me if a pitcher wants a 1 year deal in order to better position himself for free agency Detroit is the place to go. Pitching coach Chris Fetter did a good job in that regard for Flaherty and Lorenzen.
With Walker Buehler being from Lexington, KY I would love to see him come home to pitch for the team he grew up rooting for, the Cincinnati Reds. He would be a great veteran presence for that young staff and could help get those guys to another level.
Lexington is only 80 miles from Cincinnati and sometimes players like to come play closer to where they grew up. I know it most likely won’t happen but I can dream.
Montas was ok and Buehler (for the right $$) could be ok too. That said, I’d really like Stearns to stop shopping the bargain bin. Frankly hitting aces on last years two reclamation projects will be hard to duplicate. More importantly, if signing Soto means not signing top flight pitching hard pass on Soto – he’s one guy and even playing with Judge he couldn’t carry the Yankees to the Series win. Honestly, Soto’s a great hitter but his defense is already suspect (at 26) – its not going to get dramatically better over the next 12 years. I think I prefer two top flight pitchers over Soto.
Only one was an ace, the other was a serviceable mid to back of the rotation starter.
Soto was a top three finalist for the gold glove in RF. Thought you should know.
Gold gloves don’t mean anything. I’m a Dodgers fan, and Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have gold gloves, and they were both atrocious defenders.
10 assists isn’t too shabby.
Obviously not signing all of them, but the Mets will be “in” on all of them.
Mets should sign Buehler and than trade for Crochet have a rotation of Buehler, Crochet, Senga, Montas and Peterson
So this is making me laff….SOOOO many articles saying REDSOX IN ON….etc….THIS is one guy I would expect them to be in on, seeing they need to bolster their rotation. I know they have lines dangling with the BIG FISH, but Buehler should be in consideration.
the other day i grabbed a pitcher of milk from the refrigerator and was immediately contacted by someone in stearns’ office
The analysis in this article makes a common logical error. The point of comparison for Buehler isn’t his former ace self, it’s the universe of available starters. He’ll get a deal based on what teams believe he can do now, not on what he did in the past.