The Padres and infielder Luis Arráez avoided arbitration earlier today by agreeing to a $14MM salary for the 2025 season, his final before he reaches free agency next offseason. Even after agreeing to a contract, however, there’s no guarantee that Arraez will be San Diego come Opening Day. The club is reportedly angling to lower its payroll to something closer to 2024’s $169MM figure. With outstanding needs in the outfield and rotation that have yet to be addressed, trading a pricey arbitration-level player like Arraez or Dylan Cease seems like it may be the best avenue for the club to simultaneously lower its payroll and add talent to remain competitive in the NL West this season.
That’s led the Padres to at least consider parting ways with Arraez this winter, and there have been some conflicting reports about potential interest from the Yankees regarding Arraez’s services. The club is in need of infield help after losing Gleyber Torres in free agency, and Arraez’s history as a second baseman makes him something of a plausible option. With that being said however, Andy Martino of SNY is the latest voice to cast doubt on the fit between Arraez and the Yankees. While Martino acknowledges that the club had some discussions back in November that involved Arraez, he adds that similarly brief conversations were held regarding fellow Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth along with a number of other players, and that the Yankees are not expected to pursue Arraez at this point in the winter.
That may not completely shut the door on Arraez winding up in the Big Apple, however. Martino suggests that while the Mets have not engaged with the Padres in “substantive” talks regarding Arraez to this point, they’re in the market for a veteran infielder and he could come into play for the club in the event that slugging first baseman Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. In that case, Arraez would provide the Mets with a short-term solution at first along with the ability to back up second and third base in a pinch. That would leave the door open for New York to reevaluate its needs next winter in a free agent class that figures to be headlined by star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. barring an extension with the Blue Jays. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan O’Hearn, and Josh Naylor are among the other noteworthy names that figure to be available in next year’s first base class.
When it comes to their hole at first base, the club seems to be clearly focused on bringing Alonso back into the fold despite a number of recent reports have suggested that there remains a gap between the two sides in terms of years. It’s difficult to imagine the Mets going in another direction until Alonso’s market develops further, but it’s worth noting that the same surely could have been said about third baseman Alex Bregman and the Astros in the weeks prior to the club adding Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to box him out of the club’s infield mix.
Should the Mets wind up searching for other options themselves, Arraez figures to be one of a number of backup options at their disposal in the event that Alonso ultimately signs elsewhere. There’s been some rumors that the club could consider Bregman as a backup to Alonso, which would kick incumbent third baseman Mark Vientos over to first. More direct first base options available in free agency or on the trade market include Justin Turner, LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even Red Sox youngster Triston Casas, though none of those players have been directly connected to the Mets at this point.
Let me guess. Blue Jays are interested
14 Million next year. Haha. Definitely out of the Yankees budget. Who’s next for the Yankees to pretend to get??
Are you really a Yankees fan? Because I got some doubts lately…
It’s self-trolling. Gets excited about every other unsubtantiated Yankees rumor and gets disappointed and whines when the next one appears. An endless vicious cycle.
Yes his plane was just spotted heading to Toronto.
Havent heard that one.
Want to make an awful offseason even worse for Padres Nation, trade our three time batting champ.
Arraez is more valuable to the Padres than what they will recieve back in a trade.
Every time with you, tow. Soooooooo sad. *yawn*
@gwynning truth hurts bud.
What truth? You talked about an awful Offseason and a trade of Arraez. Neither has happened. Turn your phone off until Spring Training if you can’t handle the slow pace of an Offseason. 40 Man roster is almost full, but you still want to sign everybody?!?!?! It’s a ludicrous stance. Go watch Aaron Rodgers’
“R-E-L-A-X” presser already.
He was a 1 win player last year. His contract is well underwater.
WAR, what is it good for?
Arraez could be replaced by Jake Rogers, Max Kepler, Jahonkensey Noel, Gio Urshela, Donovan Solano or Stuart Fairchild. All these players had 1 WAR. They are all interchangeable pieces according to WAR. You would be better off getting Taylor Walls 1.4. LOL
Nobody ever mentions how players should have to pay management and fans to come watch them play….
when they have a negative WAR.
@gwynning spin city my friend.
You’re the one spinning, tow! Ya just don’t get it, but we appreciate your fandom all the same, compadre. Cheers
I don’t understand why he gets traded so much. A Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs type of hitter. I would love to have a guy like him at the top of my lineup.
Alonso to SD makes so much sense. San Diego is already middle of the pack in payroll, too bad. Would be an insane lineup
Eh, if they were going to spend that kind it could be better used than on Alonso.
Padres are less likely than the athletics
Is San Diego expected to be buying on that level? I thought they were still in limbo. I would expect them to mainly focus on Sasaki.
Elon- They aren’t singing Alonso. Also they aren’t buying at that level.
Thanks Simm- I didn’t think so.
Maybe Rizzo but not Alonso.
A return to San Diego for rizz
Why? Rather have a return to SD of Solano.
I’d be happy if Solano and Peralta returned.
Sell the team
The Seidler family should sell their 20%. if they are willing to take $17 million, I just sold one of my patents and will take that 20% of their hands. Wish I could use a rotfl emoji.
If you told me back in 1995 that 30 years from now a player who would win 3 straight batting titles would be on 4 teams in 3 years I would think you’re crazy. Now it looks like he might be on his 5th team since 2022.
It goes without saying that the game has definitely changed. I can imagine what kind of contract Rob Deer would get in 2025 if he were in his 20s.
Craven – and no one would want Tony Gwynn or Ichiro, maybe Kirby Pucket – LOL. It has changed a lot in the last 20 years. Ironically, it hardly changed for the first 100+ years.
Arraez ain’t Ichiro
I love Ichiro. Some of my most prized possessions are his hit 2001 ball from a game in Oakland in September 2009, a game used bat from hit 1997 from that same series in Oakland, and a game used and autographed jersey from his rookie season.
But you are right. Ichiro never had 3 batting titles, let alone 3 consecutive ones.
It’s not all that close. Gwynn, Boggs, and Ichiro were all good gloves, with Ichiro being a great glove. Arraez is good, but he ranks #28 in OBP with a fraction of the power of the guys above him.
28th? Over what period of time?
All time Arraez is not that high. He is 149th, tied with Buster Posey and Kenny Lofton.
Over the last 3 seasons he is 11th, tied with Christian Yelich.
Over his career, 2019-2024, he is 12th and tied with Ohtani and Rendon.
Rob Deer = a RHed Joey Gallo
I can’t see Joey Gallo’s name without going straight to Joe Pesci in My Cousin Vinnie!
Gwynning,
In Sports Talk Baseball for Sega, Rob Deer was an absolute beast. I believe it was 1991 or 1992 rosters in that game? They had Big Daddy Cecil, Fryman and Tettleton in that lineup and they would just punish your pitchers. Oakland, Toronto and Texas were formidable too.
Loved that game! That and Joe Montana Football. Nothing, errr nobody… beat Tony Armas in the OG RBI Baseball for Nintendo!
I still have that game! Lol and it works! Since the Yankees weren’t a selectable team in the OG RBI Baseball for NES I would pick the Cardinals and just steal bases left and right. They had solid pitching too.
“Did we just become best friends?”
Love you bro, you and the fam have a wonderful 2025 CraveDawg!
You as well my loyal Friars faithful friend. Best of luck to your boys this year.
I don’t see Ducky, Clip and the rest of your Eastside gang much anymore, tell them I said hi and when you speak of me, speak well.
😉
1968 Cadeco baseball game for me! Insert disc and spin it.
I liked Rob Deer on the Padres that one season lol
Rob Deer averaged about a win and a half per season (lots of HR”s but average – for that time – OBP and no defense). He’d be a journeyman corner OF now, just as he was then. You all boomers just don’t get it.
Not a boomer lmao, but what don’t we get seamer? Lol
I’m a 39 year old boomer apparently. It’s 9:40pm here so that means it’s well past my bedtime because Jeopardy ended a few hours ago.
I better get a warm glass of milk to drink so I can get up early tomorrow and drive 20mph to the local grocery store in my Buick and buy $30 worth of scratch off lottery tickets.
Lmao
He’d be…
venison.
I know the Braves don’t have a place to put him but I wish we did. A guy who is a pure hitter that gets on base at a good clip in front of these big gap/poser hitters, would be nice. Obviously he’s more expensive and not a great defender at 2nd and not gonna replace Olsen at first, can’t DH over Ozuna, so really no where to put him unless we trade Ozzie and really take a defensive hit (which even with Ozzie’s defense trending down), I would bet Arraez is way worse .. plus I love Ozzie and don’t want to trade him lol
It’s all kind of fruitless then isn’t it?
I agree with you 100 Bravesfan, guy can just hit with a high OBP. Ozzie will not make the money though. I like Arraez though, just a pure hitter.
He can hit singles like a mother and walk 25 times a year. No power, no speed, no glove. Your mileage may vary.
He hits a lot of doubles as well.
He did good at first base it’s not like he can’t catch or throw lol
His OBP is not very good for a guy with no pop. And as soon as he loses his hand speed (which is often the first thing to go) he’ll be unplayable. You do NOT want that guy’s 30’s.
Yeah only a career over .370. He isn’t old at all.
People want to find a reason not to like Arraez they can. I watched him all year and he is a guy you want on your team.
First guy I thought of was Robert Perez, former Blue Jays farm hand. Emptiest production you could get out of a .300 average.
Seam, as usual WTH are you babbling on about?
Arraez is 11th in baseball over past 3 years with a .371 OBP. He did that mostly with hits, which is even better because a hit is better than a walk according to run expectancy.
Do you know how many players have won 3 consecutive battling titles? in the history of baseball? TWO besides Arraez.
The first thing to go is the legs. Defense.
Arraez doesn’t hit the ball hard. That is not his game, so he won’t lose much “hand” speed. The last thing to go for elite hitters is hand eye coordination. He has that in spades. I absolutely want that guy in his 30s.
The guy I DON’T want is the fast running guy that gets huge numbers of XBH and plays good but not great defense based on his speed. The legs are always the first to go.
I’m hoping he lands with the Mets. Can’t wait to see Stearns and Preller match wits in a trade.
Padres- plus none of that even matters now. Dude is like 27 years old. People act like he is 31. He doesn’t need a 19 year contract. Teams right now get him for 1 year.
So is this a Mets or Padres article?
Right
Yes
Madres!
Boo this man! Go bodyguard yer boy before he dyes his hair pink!
May the curse of Soto’s contract keep the Mets from ever achieving a WS victory while he plays..
Go Tigers!
sdmadres.org/ mmmkay
What do the Mets have that would possibly interest The Red Sox? They don’t have a righty hitting OF or closer available that the Sox need so why would they trade Casas to them? Silly.
I think not considering the lawsuit, the “Inferred” threats of moving, and how the optics of moving a near .350+ Batter would look in the wake of the “Shedding payroll” stance taken by the BROTHERS, not the wife.
The wife will , I would wager, have any deal before a judge to block it on principle to give the WEIGHT to her legal teams stance that the brothers intend to consider relocation…which seems to be a pretty nasty assault 🙂 I think if she can swing that view, the pressure from all sides would see the brothers vacate in lieu of her as the POTENTIAL MLB Approved owner.
To consider..or to blindly IGNORE, trades, without looking at ALL transactions since November, is silly and shows tunnel vision and the inability to step back and potentially read the room
Their LACK of transactions beyond minors and the required Arb agreements are a resounding echo. Things are going to stay in limbo through the 1st half of the year, lawsuit progression depending
You can’t circle the wagons when you don’t know whats coming. Sometimes you need to run, not hunker down :0\
MLBTrade rumors is still fixating on half a year old statements, and ignoring whats transpiring this week, while pushing a piece to be “Doing something”, is what it seeems like
The lawsuit will start this coming Tuesday to hear arguments on Sheel Seidler’s request that Matt Seidler be removed as trustee, a slam dunk for her, and that appointing John Seidler as control person for the Padres be blocked, a gimme for her.
The fraud portions of the lawsuit will carry into the season, but the two biggest points will be decided in the coming days. Well before the season starts. If she wins on those two points, the Seidler brothers days with the Padres are numbered.
I think the media rumor type sites want to trade Arraez and Cease more than the Padres.
If the padres really wanted to trade either they would be gone.
Trades could be held up due to differences in valuations of the players involved.
Two radically different cases. About the only things they have in common is the team they’re on and the fact that they’re both free agents next year. Cease is worth a mother lode. One of the better pitchers in baseball and quite affordable in his last year of arbitration.
Maybe a difference in value but the padres still could have traded either by now if they wanted to.
Cease’s market has been on hold waiting for other starting free agents and some of the International players to sign.
Once Roki Sasaki comes off the board and the Padres see if they get him, then others potential Padres deals will get moving.
Those markets will be more clear by mid January and early Feb.
Then, ,there will be more movement on potential Padres trades.
Like to see Yankees trade to get
Jake Cronenworth
Alum – I’m a padres fan and don’t want Cro traded but I’ve thought from Yankees perspective he would be a much more desirable target.
We love Cronie, back off pal!
I would think he would be a much more desirable target. 2+ WAR player. Solid at multiple positions. Cost controlled at reasonable $11.83 million for next 6 seasons.
Would hate to see him go if he was traded, but that is far more likely than the team trading Arraez.
Yeah Crone is a far better player and fit for NYY.
Crone Zone is a little closer at Yankee Stadium
“cost controlled”
Well he certainly wouldn’t sign for more than he was owed if he were a free agent……
Jbigz/KingHov- It’s an interesting thought exercise… or is it? I highly suspect Jake would get better than the remaining 6Y/$66M CBT hit if he were a FA this offseason.
Gwynning- Jake prob gets like 3/45 is my guess. Doesn’t mean he wouldn’t top 66 over the next 6 years.
Don’t think so. AAV isn’t the issue. I think that’s a correct AAV but not for that kind of length.
Tommy Edman is a year younger, more versatile and a better overall player and got $5/59MM.
I think crone would’ve been maxed out at like a 4/48 type deal. Probably would’ve been looking at a 3 year deal though IMO.
Good points Jbigz, and like Simm alluded to, I think he beats $66MM over 6. Let’s revisit in 7 years!
Yep! There’s definitely a world where he winds up being worth the total outlay. Just think it’s above market today.
Think he would’ve had to earn another contract at age 34 instead of having this run til he’s 37.
Ryan, As few things as you have been right at, we can be certain you are wrong about this one too. Change the account back to Ragnarok. Its a better name than jlittlez12.
Edman got paid that because he spent most of the season on the IL because of continuing pain, stiffness, and swelling in his wrist that was surgically repaired in October of 2023. MLB Network talked about how GM’s were concerned that he would not recover fully from that injury.
Will cronenworth be worth 12m 4-5-6 years from now, that’s the question. Also remember 12m won’t be worth 12m then either.
It’s possible if the padres want to move cronenworth they would need to eat some of that money. Especially if they want to get anything back. That really comes down to the team that would be interested. Is money or prospects more important, same for the padres.
Unless the returns are incredibly immense, there’s simply no way the Pads eat money to move a line-up mainstay (and key cog) in Jake.
Simm sure wants to get rid of Cronz. But I doubt they’d have to eat salary to do so, a lot of teams could use 2WAR 3-position infielder who hits 15-20 HRs and is plus defender.
Brew- cronenworth isn’t 3 war 1b and that’s what he will on this team long term. Xander needs to be the long term 2b. So if they need to move someone for financial reason he is my top choice.
I’d like to see them try to win this year. Agree that Cronz value is at 2b only. I doubt he plays much at 1st moving forward, certainly not this year. I wouldn’t oppose moving him if they confine him to 1b long term Bogey might leave MI, or be traded?
I don’t see how they can trade Xander. He looked like he was going to be okay at second last year.
Obviously want them to win this year but if they have to cut some payroll cronenworth and Suarez are two of the options. The difference between Arraez and cron is cron is here for 6 more years. Plus you can’t trade them both.
Trade cronenworth, move Xander to second next year and DeVries takes over short is the goal. Can get by with Arraez at second but will need a 1b.
My preference is to keep them all but that doesn’t sound likely.
Simm,
Cronenworth is on a deal that has an AAV of $11.83 million per season for the next 6 seasons.
His performance was 1.9 bWAR in 2024 (initially released as 2.0 WAR) when he earned $7 million and that performance was worth $17.5 million on the FA market. A surplus value of over $10 million or >>100% surplus value in the 1st year of his contract. If he always plays mostly 1B and only ever puts up a 1.9 WAR, he will have earned the Padres or the team trading for him a surplus value.
Here is the MAIN point all fans need to understand. The WAR he earned was affected by the position he played.
How you ask? He started 80 games at 1B which has a positional adjustment of -9.5 runs and 66 games at 2B which has a positional adjustment of +3. Flip those 14 games and he had a 2.6 WAR and 2.8 fWAR just based on what position he played most with no change in hitting or defense at those positions. The same exact performance, just change where most of his games were played.
Now make that 142 games played at 2B and 5 at 1B like it was in 2022, and with NO CHANGE in performance he is at 3.7 WAR. He ranks #4 for 2B between Jose Altuve and Nico Hoerner. Nothing changed except the position he played.
If a team trades for Cronenworth to play 2B, they know the differences in positional adjustments make in WAR.
It is the FANS that don’t understand. Fans just see his stats on Baseball Reference or Fangraphs and say “OH MY GOD HE ONLY HAD 1.9 WAR or 2.1 fWAR, HE MUST SUCK. THE PADRES WILL HAVE TO EAT ALL OF HIS CONTRACT TO TRADE HIM”.
That is why Preller has said several times that they don’t see any negative in Cronenworth’s contract. The Padres need him mostly at 1B and some at 2B and they don’t care what WAR says.
The Padres will get a great return for Cronenworth without eating a penny regardless of what any fan thinks.
To your point about $12 million not being worth $12 million in 4-6 years from now, at the current rate of FA inflation, 1 point of WAR will be worth $12.5-$12.75 million in the 2029-2030 offseason. Cronenworth could play 1B full time and put up less than half the WAR he does now and still have the team break even on his contract in the last year of his deal.
No team would value cronenworth’s last season and say…yeah I’d pay him 17m for that.
War isn’t the Bible to a players worth.
Preller may not think his contract is under water and maybe some other gm’s don’t either.
If someone traded for cronenworth and his entire contract his return would be minimal at best.
There is all the stuff you said some of which I believe is true and there is reality. Cronenworth has either very little, none or negative trade value.
Nobody…none…would pay cronenworth 17m for his 2024 production. I don’t care what the cost per war says.
That’s my opinion
Simm,
Cronenworth started 80 games at 1B and his bWAR as a 1B was higher than Paul Goldschmidt or Josh Naylor.
In 80 games. Less than half a season.
Here is his games started breakdown by position
(in parenthesis is the positional adjustment for WAR)
1B – 80 starts (-9.5)
2B – 66 starts (+3)
DH – 5 starts (-15)
If Cronenworth is traded, it will be to play 2B, not 1B. Let me repeat that. Cronenworth will be traded to play 2B, not 1B, so whatever WAR he has as a 1B doesn’t matter.
Bogaerts doesn’t need to be the long-term 2B. He needs to play where he hits the best. Period. He is just fine as a SS.
Defensively he is a +1 DRS, +7 OAA (measures range), and +6 FRV (fielding run value on StatCast) the last 3 seasons. Bogaerts is an above league average defensive SS right now.
The only reason to move him is for an exceptional defensive SS like the team had in Kim. We don’t have Kim anymore. Merrill is a CF. No reason to move Bogaerts off SS.
Put Cronenworth or a healthy Arraez at 2B and watch them put up a 3.5-4.5 WAR.
I think that DeVries is the eventual SS…in 2027 or 2028. He played most of last season at 17. His age 19 season will be 2027. That is the earliest he is called up and I doubt that he starts the season on the MLB squad.
Blew that. His age 19 season is 2026.
Pads- start with Xander. As he ages over 30 he will decline. He was a good defender 3 years ago. Okay 2 years ago but looked rough last year. Now maybe you can say that’s because he was at second then short.
Either way his days at short are numbered. I fully expect him to be at short in 25’ but he is going to need to move sooner than later. My guess is the padres hope DeVries can replace him at short as soon as 2026. If he does then Xander will to second. That puts cronenworth back at first. Where his value is reduced.
Because they have Arraez for another season that’s why I’d move cronenworth. Can play Arraez at second in 2025. This would create a hole at first. So it’s reasonable to say we need to keep cronenworth. At the same time if they need to shed some payroll then someone has to go. I select cronenworth because of the long term fit and he is signed for 6 more years.
That’s my reasoning for possibly trading cronenworth. Now if they don’t need to shed payroll then by all means keep him.
As far as his value…we can debate that but it’s just opinions and everyone will have a different one.
Simm
War isn’t the Bible to a players worth.
==========================
IMHO, WAR is not linear. A guy with a 6 WAR is worth a heck of a lot more than twice someone with a 3 WAR. Teams develop 2+ WAR players all the time. There were ten guys with 6+ fWAR last year, and 77 with 3+.
And the duration of Cro’s contract has to be considered. I thought he’d make a good addition for my RS, but that’s for maybe three years, not for 6. To me, this is like DJLM’s contract. It never figured to age well.
Joe- what ever way you measure value of production. The larger the production is at spot either the more production your team will get or the less production the other players need to have to generate avg production.
I guess my point is that this year anyway, and maybe next, they need a good 2bman and Cron is what they have and he’s actually very good at 2b. Longer term they will no doubt reshuffle as overweight Bogey will need to move off SS
Joe, 17% of top 100 prospects ever become 2.0 WAR players. Overall, 2.0 WAR is league average for players with a qualifying number of PA. That is just 129 of the 949 players to take an at bat in 2024, The 77 guys with a 3.0 WAR or higher makes up 8% of MLB position players.
When measuring WAR, you also have to take into consideration positional adjustments. It takes far more for a DH or 1B to get to 3.0 WAR than it does a SS or even a 2B.
If Cronenworth played 142 games at 2B last season he would have been at 3.7 WAR with no changes in performance. Top 4 in MLB at that position.
The Pads are planning to fill a couple of holes, not create new ones. Cronz is as good a 2b for the price that there is. Why would they deal him?
Because they want Xander to play second. Prob is they wouldn’t really have a short stop.
The Kim experiment was brief. Xander till Leonis?
Yuuup, unless Merrill is called back to the dirt, as doubtful as that might be!
If Tirso ends up in LF, might need Tati at short to catch the drives before Ornelas can mufff em. Xander in RF.
Then you gotta go Jackson to the keystone to help atone for X’s position shift which leaves Jake for CF. 5D chess!
That leaves X at backstop and Campy shaggin Manny on the mound, could work
Duh
Let’s hope that Preller doesn’t play rotoball with the lineup. Leave guys where they are playing well. Positions are not interchangeable.
Pretty sure Brew was joking, and I know I was! Lol
LOL at Pads Fan taking us seriously
Maybe he was joking, now we have egg on our faces Brewer! Lol
Nah, but if he was then 2025 could be bliss?
Teams have asked about Bogaerts.
If the deal is right and the Padres get back the young players to fill multiple holes, including a young up and coming starting pitcher and a young up and coming LF plus major salary relief from Bogaerts contract, then I could see them making that deal
SS Devries could be “fast tracked” to the majors.
So you think you are dumping Bogaerts salary AND getting talent back?
Angels send Taylor Ward and prospect/s For Arraez and Cease….
Angels get an Ace Finally and 2b but take on contracts
Padres Get Ward and Prospects and save Several million.
Make it happen Peary!!
No thanks
No offense hippo, but that’s the worst proposal I’ve seen all year.
Angels were worst ranked farm system heading into last yr.. they moved up few spots but they don’t have anything they’d give up off substance
Angels best prospect is Christian Moore.
I think by a wide margin. He’ll be a very good 2B. Doesn’t do much good for the Pads who have Bogey or Crone there for the next half decade.
So acquiring cease is essentially out the window unless they’d deal Neto in the package. Obviously be incredibly stupid for the Angels to make a run at a rental like Cease. But if we’re in the hypothetical world.
Except for all the people like MLB Pipeline, BA, and BP who say that Caden Dana is the Angels top prospect. mlb.com/milb/prospects/angels/
Arraez to the A’s for Zack Gelof, get it done
Hard pass. Gelof is still pre-arb and can actually play 2B. I’d much rather take a chance on him bouncing back over that trade.
That’s pretty silly
Favors who?
The A’s laugh their heads off and slam down the phone.
*Hit X to force trade”
XXXXXXXXXXXX
3-time batting champ and 2 of them were .316 and .314. He has little power. Wonder if any of the league’s sluggers could trade power for contact and best those modest batting title numbers. If so, there’s a reason they are not. Point being that the batting title accolade at those modest levels may not be what any team is chasing. The arb value wasn’t stratospheric for a reason
What the chase is his .370 obp
How did Arraez go from a 4.9 WAR in 2023 to 1.0 WAR in 2024 ??? That is a precipitous drop. I don’t understand what drastically changed in his profile.
Torn ligament in thump and wasn’t panting second.
This war stuff gives has a lot to do with position and power numbers.
Like how can varsho have a 5 war and can’t hit for crap.
Average first basemen like Arraez in 2024 get a big negative factor thrown into WAR. Which makes sense because it’s wins above REPLACEMENT. And it’s a lot easier to replace a first baseman who can hit a little than a second baseman who can hit a little. So “replacement” level is higher for 1B, and therefore wins ABOVE replacement is lower for the same hitter.
That doesn’t mean that defensive war isn’t overrated.
Varsho…most overrated war guy in the league.
Defensive war is broken.
SOB, Position. In 2023 Arraez played 134 games at 2B. In 2024 he started just 6 games at 2B once he was traded to the Padres on May 3rd. The positional adjustment is 18 runs between 2B (+3) and DH (-15) and 12.5 runs between 2B (+3) and 1B (-9.5). He played 111 games at 1B and DH in 2024.
Add in a tendon injury that reduced his HRs by 60% and presto, a 1.0 WAR instead of 4.9
Love this analysis Pads Fan. Thnx.
Over that time period he has hit 14 points better than 2nd place. 24 points better than 3rd place. Only 5 other players have even hit over .300 in that time frame.
Its not a modest level. Its one of the biggest differences in BA over their contemporaries of any player with 3 or more batting titles.
Only two players in history have had 3 consecutive batting titles, Tony Gwynn and Stan Musial.
And no one cares because AVG doesn’t matter on its own. The Rockies used to OWN the NL batting title. Didn’t mean they had a bunch of great players.
No Seam, you don’t care. That is because you don’t understand. You demonstrate that fact over and over and over.
The only stretch where the Rockies won 3 batting titles in a row was two HOF players. By definition those are great players.
Padres should pursue cashing in both King and Cease for a surplus of MLB reading pitching and try to acquire a young catcher/OF in the process.
For instance
Send Michael King and his projected 7 mill salary to the Orioles for
C/1B Samuel Basello
OF Dylan Beavers
Send Dylan Cease to the Tigers for
2B Hao Yu Lee
RHP Matt Manning
RHP Ty Madden
OF Justice Bigbie
LHP Lael Lockhart
RHP Tyler Owens
Interesting the O’s gave up a top 10 baseball prospect and Beavers. But the Tigers gave away every spare part & no top 5 org prospects for cease in that proposal.
Tigers don’t have current top prospects close to mlb ready least based on mlb website.
They do have a lot of former top prospects that graduated who are mlb ready that come with a lot of team control. Faedo, Manning, Sawyer Gipson, Madden, etc etc.
Or do guys that use to be top 100 prospects ranging from top 10 to top 50 to top 90 but graduated not count?
If they were to do that then add in trading
Suarez
Arraez
Cronenworth
Adam
Trading both of those guys means you’re putting on the season.
This thread is making my head hurt, I just can’t…
“If you trade Juan Soto padres are punting on the season”
Yeah yeah heard that one before.
Sounds like you don’t trust Niebla to get the most out of guys like they did Cease and King.
Go be pessimistic elsewhere
If you think darvish and some 6th starters are going to get the padres in the playoffs you are wrong.
The Soto trade brought back king, higgy, vas and Brito (6th starter types), plus the headliner for Cease.
Unless trading cease and King produce Cease and king there is no way they are making the playoffs.
Padres literally performed better without Soto than with Soto and you don’t think Niebla and Schildt can put together an effective rotation by trading King and Cease and getting some financial wiggle room plus filling OF, 2B, and C roles for years to come?
Your pessimism is noted. I’m sure you’re gonna love when they resign neither due to financial restraints and get a single QO offer pick in later rounds. That’ll tickle your fancy I’m sure.
Or we will get two first round picks after making the playoffs.
Niebla is a good pitching coach but he isn’t a miracle worker.
QO picks aren’t determined by playoffs. It’s determined by how much each player signs for. Nice try though and since padres are currently CBT tax payers for 2025……won’t be after the first round, fourth round. But it’s ok both started with the letter F. Easy to confuse the two. First fourth.
I know how the QO picks work…they can get below the tax easily enough. Both those players will sign a contract to get the 1st round pick.
So yeah..
Sure they can. Padres fans also said Preller wouldn’t affect draft stock but wound up costing himself 10 slots in draft position. And netting 4ths for Hader and Snell on their QOs
But yes padres can definitely get under the tax line. By trading Cease and King. Thanks for proving my point. We’ve come full circle now.
They can get under by trading almost anyone.
Cots has them atm at 242.5m. That’s 1.5m over. They don’t need to trade cease and king. Lots of other options if they want to get below.
Trade Suarez for a back up C and a SP prospect and bam, done. OR, exceed the CBT like good lil Seidler bros
Arraez’ free agency should be interesting. Despite his unquestionable hitting skills, the 3 teams who’ve had him so far haven’t been interested in keeping him for a variety of reasons. It’s anyone’s guess what length and value of that contract will be. Would be much simpler if he was a better defender.
I think he will do well if he can put up a 3+ war season again in 2025.
He needs to play a spectacular 2B for a predominant portion of the year then, Simm. 1B and DH offer minimal WAR opportunities. All that aside, he can do it.
Exactly Gwynning-
The only way he does that is if the padres trade him or cronenworth. It’s the problem I have with war.
Too much value on defense. Offense is much harder. The minor leagues are filled with of guys who can play defense. If you can hit you will play in the bigs.
This isn’t true at all. The minors are littered with guys with big hitting numbers but who don’t have a position to play. But more to the point, the fact that the same player gets more WAR playing 2B than 1B actually has little to do with how good a defender they are. It has mostly to do with how easy it is to replace what they do at that position. Arraez as a 2B is much harder to replace value-wise than Arraez as a 1B. Unfortunately for him, though, he’s also close to unplayable at 2B.
No the minors are loaded with guys who can hit. They would be playing DH if they were really good hitters.
Hitting is by far harder. Defense counts too high in war.
Show me an .800+ ops guy and I’ll show you a major leaguer.
Tirso Ornelas, Eguy Rosario.
Gwynning
He needs to play a spectacular 2B for a predominant
====================
Assuming Bogaerts plays SS, does Arraez start at 2nd over Cro? I thought Cro was a better fielder?
Barring injury…
SS Bogie
2B Cro
1B/DH Arraez
Infield is set, maybe a Ute guy (or Rizzo?) needed but Wade was extended 1YR + CO for ’26. Eguy outta Options, so maybe that 6th IFer is already in-house. ST will settle the debate.
Yes on Bogey, Crone, and Arraez.
Rosario is the utility infielder. Its about time he gets a shot at regular at bats in the majors. He plays above average defense at 3 IF positions and can rake. He has struck out too much in the majors, but not in the minors where he played regularly.
IF portion of the bench is Wade and Rosario.
Infield is currently set. The question is do they have the money to pay for it and fill the other holes. If not then they may decide to trade one of them. When I say money…will kutspenda approve the payroll needed.
Kutsenda said the payroll would be between 2023 and 2024. That midway point is still above where they are today.
He also said that level of spending is sustainable meaning they can continue to spend more than last season, but less than in 2023.
Pads- he can say what he wants all he has don’t since taking over is Kutspenda.
Mariners hello this is what you’ve been wanting for years. A guy that doesn’t strikeout hits over .300 him, Robles, Julio are a great 123.
Dylan Moore outplayed Arraez by a country mile last year, and Ryan Bliss on a rate basis was even better. So, no.
Look at their career stats Arraez has 500 more hits than more in only 100 more games. Defense and pitching will only get you so far you need to score runs. Which is the Mariners biggest problem. Also they have one of the best infield coaches so Arraez could see an uptick there. I think the fact they say they’re defense first is bs anyways Wong, Polanco were awful
Seam, You just don’t get it.
Do the WAR calculation with Dylan Moore playing the same number of games as Arraez had at 1B (61) and DH (47) and with the same offensive and his same defensive numbers at 1B. His WAR is 0.7.
Instead Moore started (WAR positional adjustment)
SS – 38 games (+7)
3B – 27 games (+2)
2B – 24 games (+3)
LF – 15 games (-7)
1B – 3 games (-9.5)
Total – 108 games started
WAR is dependent on position.
Trying to compare apples with oranges doesn’t work. Moore was not better. He just played positions that have a higher positional adjustment in WAR.
But then I doubt that you will understand that either.
Arraez will be the Yankees 2B. I guess it’s just going to take a little more time.
Anyone who plays worse defense than Torres you can keep, hard pass. Ahahahahaha!
Arraez said today that he looks forward to being a Padre for many years. Sounds like he is in extension negotiations, not being moved. Preller and Shildt said he will absolutely be a Padre in 2025. But the BS rumors persist.
It’s funny in this digital age, but when it comes to circumstantial “rumors” then I always defer to whatever Preller and Schildt say. Their words hold heavy weight, loads more than all “internet” rumors combined.
Gavin Lux wasn’t being dealt, until he was.
Wrong team, Bodyguard. Right Division though, so half a point to you sir.
Arraez is the perfect bat Philly would need
Schwarber DH
Harper 1B
Stott 2B
Mets have questions at all 3 of those positions. Here’s to hoping for the Mets.
The Padres have not “considered” moving Arraez or Cease. They have listened to offers. Only a stupid GM doesn’t listen to offers and Preller is not stupid.
Both Preller and Shildt have said that he will be a Padre in 2025. I am going with NY based writers know less about the situation than Preller and Shildt. How about you?
HE DOESNT HIT FOR POWER. KYLE SCHWARBER MORE VALUABLE!!!!!!
– random guy in every comments section
Both Schwarber and Arraez are great.
I’d be thrilled if The Mets found a way to trade for Luis Arráez and Dylan Cease. Not sure what they could offer that might fit in SD, but those 2 on the current Roster in Queens would definitely up their game in the NL East! I still want Pete back too though!
Ok Bye!
KMF, As a Mets fan would you be willing to give up the same level of prospects as the Orioles gave up to get Burnes? That was 2 top 100 prospects and a #34 draft pick.
Since the Mets don’t have a #34 draft pick then Sproat, Mauricio, and Megill or Butto? Or maybe Sproat, McNeil = $15 million, and Megill.
Fair trade?
The Yankees are the nice fit but only if he had been a bit more good looking as that’s a pretty big fact to be a Yankee.
Is this the like 10th article saying the same thing?
You must only be counting this week.
Mlbtr is hellbent to trade Cease and Arraez.
“AJ, Tim Dierkes on line 1, and he’s pretty fired up…”
e.e
(Eyeroll)
“Not this guy again!”
“Says he wants to be the new Pads control person”
AJ: “ him too!”
The Yankees did not lose Torres to Free Agency. They never even gave him an offer. To describe it perfectly, do not let the Billy Martin clubhouse doors hit you in the keister. Just go away!
“And take Verdugo with you dammit!!!”
Arraez and Cease aren’t pricey they are bargains and why the team traded for them in the first place
I’m hoping the lack of a deal with King somehow means it’s more likely he gets a multi year deal.
I don’t know that the padres will keep Arraez, but I do believe they want to, and want him to be a Padre the next 6 years.. but Preller does listen, and the New York teams have shown insane desperation (see Soto).
Cease has to be the most likely to go, between this year price point, perceived value, and looking rather off in his padres playoff starts.
But I think Preller will be firm in that a Cease trade must include a proven MLB starter with 3+ years control, and quality farm equipment.
A good cease trade gets back that SP, and frees up enough cash to sign Profar.
Preller will NOT do a trade(s) that punt 2025, padres have to much talent to not compete.
Me too JSC. Preller has never gone to arb hearing with a player, not to my knowledge, so that could be telling
I think this is why preller is waiting on Roki.
It will determine where they need to focus. I’m sure Preller has a plan if they sign him or not.
Yep. And that means several other teams are waiting on Roki with said tentative Padre trades pending
What do we think Mets fans?
1) Lindor SS
2) Soto RF
3) Arraez 1B
4) Vientos 3B
5) Nimmo LF
6) Alvarez C
7) McNeil 2B
8) Marte/ Acuna/ Mauricio (Rotating DH giving time to Acuna/ Mauricio at 2B, 3B, and SS as well)
9) Siri/ Taylor CF
Looks like a 6th or 7th place finish in the NL.
SD s/b paying to offload salary. Not one of those guys mentioned have excess value at their current salaries. (SP excluded. If they want to compete, trading top SP seems…..quite idiotic.)
What does SD expect for them?
What needs does SD actually have?
With the Padres Ownership and payroll situation in uncertain territory,
I could see AJ Preller and the Padres continuing to restructure their ball club to compete at lower payroll levels with younger, up and coming players.
Dylan Cease would bring a very nice return for the Padres
Example: (Orioles could offer catcher/1B Sam Basallo RHSP Chayce McDermott and a few prospects.
Other teams could make strong offers also.
Arraez could bring a strong return from the right team.
Xander Bogaerts is the most interesting player that has attracted a lot of interests from other clubs at the major league meetings and get togethers.
If the Padres can get major salary relief trading Bogaerts and still land
a very good young starter young OF help and more, then that would be a deal that the Padres have to look at.
The Padres have 2 #1 Rated International prospects for the last few years “knocking at the major league door”
SS Leodalis De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas
Fast track those top young players to the majors in mid 2025 or early 2026.
It looks like they have 2 more “Jackson Merrill” like impact, young players
that could energize their team in ’25 or early ’26.
Xander isn’t going anywhere unless the padres eat a ton of money on that contract.
Arraez may have some trade value but it’s not that high unless they eat some of his money as well.
Salas and DeVries are both 18 years old. Pump the breaks on them making any impact this year. Maybe not even next year. Salas’s value has been falling off because of his bat. He will need a big minor league season to get back on track.
The padres will have younger players at certain positions because they have so much money tied up to other players already.
The future issue the padres have is starting pitching. It’s not cheap and they don’t have high end pitching prospects near the majors.